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The places where people would most like to live mostly voted Remain

July 20th, 2018

Away from Brexit for moment with some polling on what are seen as Britain’s desirable locations to live.

With Channel 4 going through a process of choosing a location outside London for a new creative hub YouGov have been carrying out the polling which no doubt will prove controversial.

On my Twitter feed it was observed that most of the top choices all voted remain at the referendum. You have to go down to 9th place, Nottingham to find a Leave location and even there the referendum was a very close thing.

Essentially what this assertion is showing is that demographic groups most likely to back Remain tend to favour what are perceived as the “nicest” locations.

I think this is a bit unfair on Hull which I very much like as a city and Peterborough which has a lovely cathedral and no longer has Stewart Jackson as its MP.

Mike Smithson





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At GE2017 six times as many CON voters said Brexit was the deciding issue than LAB ones

July 20th, 2018


Lord Ashcroft GE2017 on the day poll

Why LAB should worry less about supporters who backed leave

On general election day last year the Conservative peer, Lord Ashcroft, carried out a huge 14,000 sample poll to find out amongst other things why people had voted as they did and to tryto understand better what had happened. The survey was similar to US exit polls where much more than voting data is collected. The BBC/Sky/ITV UK exit poll is solely about predicting seats numbers and the election outcome.

One question to respondents was askingthem to state what was the main reason they had voted as they did. A summary of the key CON and LAB voter responses is in the graphic above.

    As can be seen the most striking feature is the huge gap between Conservative voters’ views of the importance of Brexit and those of Labour voters

A total of 48% of those who had voted CON said Brexit compared with just 8% of LAB ones. We also cannot assume that the 8% were pro-Brexiteers. LAB picked up 30% of the GE2015 LD vote the vast majority of whom were opposed to Brexit

    Perhaps it was the fact that Brexit was much less of a priority for LAB supporters that the majority of party’s gains from the Tories were in constituencies that had voted Leave a year beforehand at the referendum.

The poll asked people had voted and this was very close to the actual general election result which underlines the robustness of the findings.

Mike Smithson




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Republican voters remain solidly behind Trump in the first post-Helsinki polls

July 19th, 2018

Those polled responded along strong partisan lines

Anybody expecting that President Trump’s widely criticised approach at the Helsinki summit with Putin would hurt him amongst his base is going to be disappointed. The first polls are now out and they show the same picture – very solid support from Republican Party voters for the Presidents handling of Russian leader, Putin

Axios/SurveyMonkey has 79% of Republicans approved of Trump’s handling. This compares with 91% of Democrats and 62% of independents who disagreed. The overall splits was 58% disapprove to 40% approve.

A CBS News survey found 68% of Republicans saying Trump did a good job in Helsinki, with 83% of Democrats and 53% of independents said he did a bad job.

No doubt we’ll see a lot of other surveys in the next day or two and I’d be surprised if there is much deviation from this picture.

The big question will be how it impacts on the midterm elections at the start of November.

Mike Smithson




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Away from the Commons pairing row the betting gets tighter on whether Brexit will happen on time

July 19th, 2018

Betdata.io

I’ve been glued to the Tour de France coverage this afternoon and haven’t really been following the pairing row.

The chart shows the changing views in the “Will UK leave the EU by March 29 2019” betting and shows it getting tighter. Clearly the politics are so much harder to read.

One other development that hasn’t been much reported on is the growing movement within Momentum to call for a new Brexit vote as reported here in this FT video

If LAB’s position shifts then that could make things even harder for the Government.

Mike Smithson




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BoJo moves to joint next CON leader favourite with Moggsy following his resignation speech

July 19th, 2018


Betdata.io

With so much up in the air in British politics at the moment there’s been a lot of movement in the next CON leader betting. It is beginning to look as though Theresa May will survive until the autumn at least and maybe beyond and the question is who will actually replace her?

Yesterday, of course, the ex Foreign Secretary secured a lot of coverage for his resignation address to MPs. Although it was nothing like the dramatic event that some were predicting, it got him media attention and reminded us that he is still a force to be reckoned with and he is strongly on the hard Brexit side of the party.

He’s also going to be returning to his Daily Telegraph column something which gives him a platform that can be influential within the Conservative Party.

Whatever it is still extremely difficult to work out who will make it once Theresa May goes whether she’s pushed or does it voluntarily.

My view remains that there is not going to be immediate contest simply because there is such a division within the Tories on who would be the successor and nobody wants to risk a contest unless they are confident that their man or woman would make it.

Mike Smithson




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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: The week the polls turned, Boris makes a speech and why Theresa May is a modern day Mr Burns

July 18th, 2018

This week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast is split into two parts.

In part one, Keiran Pedley is joined by James Crouch of Opinium to discuss polling that shows Labour taking the lead as the Tory vote share falls. Keiran and James discuss why this is and whether the Tories could fall further still and what voters think of the concept of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit.

In part two, Keiran is joined by Asa Bennet of the Telegraph to discuss what’s been happening in Westminster this week, including Boris Johnson’s resignation speech today. Asa looks ahead to a critical Tory party conference season and gives his perspective on who might replace Theresa May in the future.

Finally, Keiran sums up what we’ve learned and explains why Boris Johnson reminds him of David Miliband and why Theresa May reminds him of Mr Burns from The Simpsons. A stretch? You’ll have to listen to find out why…

Follow this week’s guests:






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BoJo’s resignation speech – some reaction

July 18th, 2018

It certainly wasn’t up to the Sir Geoffrey Howe standard



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PB Video Analysis: Brexit – What Does “No Deal”Actually Mean?

July 18th, 2018

The UK is due to leave the EU on March 29th 2019. With Mrs May’s Chequers deal rejected by the Commons, and no obvious alternative on the table, leaving the EU with No Deal and previous little preparation is looking increasingly likely.

In this video, I ask ask what the consequences would be. Would food become scarce? Would the economy collapse? Or is this just another example of Project Fear?

(And please click the funny YouTube button above to subscribe!)

Robert Smithson

Robert tweets as ‘@MarketWarbles’