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Given that Beaconsfield went Remain the odds on the Tory look too short and Grieve too long

November 19th, 2019

The latest Beaconsfield betting


Oddschecker

I’m planning a short series of posts on the betting in interesting seats and number one, for me, is Beaconsfield where the former MP and prominent anti-Brexiteer, Dominic Grieve, is trying to hold on.

At GE2017 Grieve won with a whopping 65.3% of the vote nearly 44% shead of LAB in second place. Back at the pre-coalition GE2010 the LDs came second with just under 20%.

Grieve’s helped by the fact that the LDs have stood aside and this looks like a straight battle between him and the Tory candidate, Joy Morrissey. Her line of attack is summed up in this comment “Voting for the independent candidate is essentially a vote for Corbyn” which I assume is being used all over the country.

The big question is how much of the Tory vote will stick with the incumbent who has built up a national profile and all also likely to have a personal vote. You can also see tactical voting from LAB supporters in an effort to defeat the Tory though how strong that will be given Grieve’s former party is hard to say.

UKIP did reasonably well there at GE2015 getting 13.8% of the vote.

Overall Beaconsfield went Remain by a very small margin and I would guess that a significant slice of Tory remainers will go with Grieve.

Against that the Tories are likely to be much better organised though I wonder whether Grieve might be getting some assistance from the LDs.

I’d still make Morrisey the favourite but 1/4 does not look like value at all.

Mike Smithson





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Johnson starts debate day with punters rating his chances of a majority at 66%

November 19th, 2019

My betting strategy for tonight

One thing’s for sure – tonight’s debate will either confirm or raise doubts about Johnson’s chances of leading his party to an overall majority on December 12th. There will be a lot of betting on this market tonight.

The Tory record with debates is not that strong. Cameron was taken aback by Nick Clegg being deemed to “winner” of the first TV debate in April 2010 and this prompted the betting market to mark down sharply the chances of a Tory majority.

In 2015 the judgement on the night of a multi-party debate was split between Cameron and Miliband but the incumbent PM went onto to secure an overall majority something that came as a huge shock on the betting markets.

At GE2017 TMay decided that she wasn’t going to face Corbyn in a debate and this became a huge campaign issue in the closing days. Many suggested that her decision not to be there cost her party her majority. It is no doubt the memories of the last three general elections that have guided Johnson’s approach. Yes to TV debates against Corbyn but don’t risk involving the LD leader.

As the betdata.io chart of the Betfair majority betting shows the Tories are in a commanding position and at a 66% betting chance only a touch down on this week’s peak.

I’ve decided to lay (bet against) a CON majority on this market. My reasoning is that a Johnson debate victory is almost priced in and if that’s what happens I’ll be able to get out at little cost. On the other hand what’s deemed a draw or a Corbyn victory could raise doubts about Johnson’s ability to secure a majority which will send the price down. If that is how it turns out I’ll be able to get out at a profit.

Mike Smithson




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Why Johnson’s TV debate strategy could be a mistake

November 18th, 2019

Great thread from the New Stateman’s Stephen Bush



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LAB and the LDs slipping on the Commons seats spread markets – Tories powering upwards

November 18th, 2019


SportingIndex

And on Betfair CON Majority reaches record high



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A 14% CON lead would give Johnson the margin to stuff the ERG

November 18th, 2019

Survation adds to the LDs misery

A new poll was published by Survation overnight and as can be seen the Lib Dems are the worst hit down 4 points. This means that the last two polls to be published, Deltapoll is the other one, have had very poor news for Jo swinson’s party.

Interestingly these two polls have been from firms which have been leading the way with constituency only surveys the majority of which have been very encouraging for the Lib Dems. The latest round for three London seats from Deltapoll, published in yesterday’s Observer, had them within striking distance in Wimbledon and Kensington.

Maybe what we are seeing is opinion hardening up in both leave and remain areas of the country.

What CON poll leads on the Survation scale do is make the prospect of a Corbyn premiership more remote with LAB facing its fourth successive general election defeat.

If indeed the Tories do romp home with a double digit lead on votes then that would give Johnson a very clear majority in terms of seats which could make him more immune from the ERG faction within his party. There’d be much less risk of ERG rebellions which made the final days of TMay’s tenure at Number 10 such a misery.

There is a wide view that Johnson is not a true believer in Brexit but that he used its cause to help him win the leadership and become PM.

Maybe we are getting ahead of ourselves. It used to be that general election campaigns only last last three weeks. The last one in a winter, February 28th 1974, was actually called on February 7th. What is now the legal standard of a minimum of five weeks gives plenty of time for moods to change.

Mike Smithson




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Buttigieg now nine points clear in Iowa

November 17th, 2019


CNN

The big WH2020 news over the weekend was a CNN/Des Moines Register poll showing the 37 year old Mayor Pete surge to take a substantial lead over Biden. Warren and Sanders. What’s significant here is that the pollster Ann Selzer has built up a formidable reputation over the years over the accuracy of her Iowa Caucuses polling.

This is a very difficult to poll because it is hard to get a representative sample of the 200k+ Iowans who will turn out on a cold February Monday night to participate in the candidate selection process. Selzer seems to have an approach that has worked in the past.

But Buttigieg might be riding high now but his victory is in no way a certainty. There’s a long way to go before the Caucuses on February 3rd and like other emerging frontrunners, he’s going to face the most intense scrutiny. This week we have the November TV debate and no doubt other contenders are preparing their attacks to undermine the young Mayor of South Bend, Indiana.

The big message coming from the state is that Democrats there are looking for someone of the centre and don’t think a risk should be taken with a nominee articulating the radical policy ideas that we’ve heard from Warren and Sanders. Biden appears to old and for the moment at least Pete appears to be the gainer

What all the contenders who have thrown everything into the first state to decide have gambled on is that the winner on February 3rd will get a boost that could take them a long way towards the nomination.

Whether that’s true or not we will have to see but there is increasing questioning about the hugely powerful role the state plays in the nomination process.

Buttigieg is favourite to win Iowa and third favourite for the nomination.

Mike Smithson




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The number of Tory MPs elected on December 12th will determine what type of Brexit we get, if we get Brexit

November 17th, 2019

As the late United States President, LBJ once said “Politics is the ability to count”. Currently the polls and the betting markets have a Conservative Majority as the most likely outcome, but these are fallible; the manifestoes are not out yet and the nation may not be comfortable with the idea of a large Tory Majority Gov’t.

In this thread I will examine the numerology of the next election working through various scenarios:

First up 326 + CON MPs – If the Conservatives gain any sort of majority, they are into power and Johnson’s agreement is getting passed. There is a difference between this parliament and the last when May also took over with a small majority – all the rebellion on the anti-europe side is gone, Steve Baker, Owen Patterson, Rees Mogg and Priti Patel are all completely onboard the Johnson project in a way they never were with May. On the other side, the Soubries and even Grieves and Letwins are gone. The most europhile Tories present will likely be Stephen Brine, Stephen Hammond and Greg Clark, possibly fewer than those three if the Lib Dems have a particularly good night and Labour a very poor one.

There still may be no majority for “No Deal” in the house, and that could affect things later in the parliament as we move toward the internal deadlines of the transition period but that is tomorrow’s problem. For now it looks rosy aboard the Tory express.

323 – 325 CON MPs – The exact numbers depend on the number of Sinn Fein MPs re-elected. At present this looks likely to be six but might be another number, seven or five depending on F&ST and Foyle. Each Sinn Fein MP is effectively worth 1/2 to the party closest to a majority as they do not take their seats. Let us assume for the sake of argument it is six Sinn Fein MPs. This sets the effective majority bar for the Tories (Or anyone else) at precisely 323 MPs and the maths then works as above.

322 CON MPs (Or possibly 321) – This is where the numbers start to get “interesting”, and this is the lowest possible number of Tories I make it that can pass the Johnson deal. It is true that though they are not the Tories greatest fans at present, neither the DUP nor the Lib Dems are particularly keen on Corbyn getting into Number 10 Downing Street. In the end a Johnson Queens Speech would probably get through though.

Just as Conservative remainers have been purged, so too have Brexiteers amiable to any Johnson deal on the other side of the house. Barron, Campbell, Mann, Fitzpatrick all gone. The Lisa Nandys of the parliament would quickly fall into line with the Labour whip, secure in another five years of tenure and assured by the fact Labour voters in northern towns would evidently have put other issues largely ahead of Brexit. There are left two possible ‘rebels’ on the opposition benches, Caroline Flint and possibly Jason Zadrozny. I make it these two would be allies to Johnson in terms of Brexit though he could not rely on Flint for confidence or anything else. The numbers might work with 321 if both Flint and Zadrozny are elected but that is the absolute de minimis.

313 – 320 CON MPs (Possibly 321) – A similar number to May you may say. The electoral dynamics this time round are different though. The Letwins and Gaukes are vanquished and the Tories old friends the DUP are likely back and able to influence events. At 320 MPs I don’t believe Johnson’s deal will get through, but the likelihood of ‘No deal’ is also probably at it’s highest. A ‘No deal’ Brexit works for the DUP and the tangible need to deliver some, any form of Brexit is palpable for the Tories. As we drop below 320 MPs, the likes of Greg Clark may again pop their head above the parapet to prevent “No Deal”, and for each number below there is another opposition MP to add. The danger is very much there though in the above range.

295 – 312 CON MPs – The chances of a “No deal” exit are lower beyond this point, but Labour are still well well short. Sturgeon’s demand of a Scottish referendum for Labour support being something the Lib Dems are strongly against and also the idea of putting Corbyn into No 10. The Lib Dems hold the whip hand in this scenario and they can now demand a confirmatory referendum on any deal.

Fundamentally there is a rum choice for Johnson to take – either have case by case support from the Lib Dems, no Brexit and a weak administration for five years with the possibility of it collapsing at the most inopportune moment or face a 2020 election against a new fresh faced Labour leader that the Tories will likely lose. His party may baulk at the idea of doing any sort of deal with the Lib Dems, but it is likely also in this scenario that Labour won’t have done particularly well and might be looking for another leader. There always needs to be a PM, quite who it is in this scenario I’m not sure.

294 or less – The numbers for any sort of functioning Labour minority Government are very tricky and don’t become any easier till Labour + SNP start to approach 325. Nevertheless I think someone from the opposition benches (Probably Corbyn, maybe someone else) will be put in place at least long enough for a second referendum to be put through. The key point is below this level there is surely no way Johnson can carry on, he doesn’t really have any choice but to resign and send for Corbyn and one of the weakest Labour Governments in history.

Labour’s ability to affect the sort of change Corbyn is looking for will be minimal, but Johnson at this point surely has to send for the Leader of the Opposition having been soundly defeated on his platform for the election.

So in short

322+ = Tory Gov’t + Deal
313 – 322 = Tory Gov’t + No deal danger zone
295 – 312 = Second referendum on Johnson or Corbyn’s deal
294 or below, Second referendum on Corbyn’s deal

Pulpstar



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Looking at the Welsh constituency betting

November 17th, 2019

This looks like being a volatile election in many areas, but nowhere is that truer than in Wales. Five different parties are currently polling in double digits and none is yet polling above 30%. Current polls suggest that the current distribution of constituencies could be upended. Polling, of course, could still change dramatically before the election actually arrives.

Historically, Wales has been dominated by Labour. They have won the most seats in every election since December 1918. At the last election, Labour won 28 out of the 40 seats and 49% of the vote.

Perhaps Labour will recover to that vote share but right now that looks unlikely. They last polled at 29%, having mislaid fully 40% of their support since 2017. When parties suffer such dramatic falls, uniform national swing becomes a very dangerous rule of thumb to be using.  In all likelihood the distribution of that loss of support will vary considerably between constituencies.

In 2015 in Scotland, Labour lost 42% of their support from the previous election. But that loss of support differed dramatically between constituencies. In Edinburgh South, Labour actually gained vote share. In Glasgow North East, Labour lost over 50% of its vote share. In some seats in which Labour were not in contention, the loss of vote share was still higher as Labour got squeezed (they lost more than two thirds of their vote share in Ross Skye & Lochaber, for example). 

So those betting on Welsh constituencies need to consider not just what the parties might eventually poll but how that might be redistributed. How efficient each party’s vote is going to be is going to be critical.

Unlike in Scotland in 2015, no one party has taken advantage of Labour’s travails. Relative to the 2017 election, the Conservatives are polling just one point up at 28%. The Brexit party have taken a sizeable chunk – 15%. The Lib Dems are up 7.5% to 12% and Plaid have inched forward 1.5% to 12%.  

Appropriately for a country whose national flag bears a dragon, this polling suggests that the Welsh constituencies are going to be a battle of the five armies (you can decide for yourself who are the eagles and who are the orcs).  Anyone making confident predictions is a lot braver than I am. Too much looks to depend on the distribution of the vote as well as the vote shares.

Anyway, let’s take a butcher’s at the constituencies. Here they are alphabetically. I present these for betting purposes from the perspective of Labour, since they are in contention in most constituencies.  

It is, however, more useful to sort these by the price on Labour, as here.  Immediately, as you would expect, the red mostly rises to the top. Labour are priced at 5/6 (the bookies’ evens) or better in 20 seats. This is actually ahead of what uniform national swing would suggest, which is for them to win 18 seats.   If Labour’s vote were to crash as hard as the most recent polls indicate, you would expect them actually to underperform uniform national swing: the floor in their vote in their weakest constituencies means that the loss of vote share would need to happen elsewhere ie in constituencies with more Labour voters at the last election.

So bettors appear to expect Labour to do better than recent Welsh polling suggests.

As it happens, I agree with the consensus. Labour have already been doing a bit better in UK-wide polling since the election was called and there is no reason to assume that anything different is happening in Wales. And that long muscle memory of voting Labour in Wales is likely to help them when it comes to the crunch.

Even if you disagree, in some of the seats the main challengers are preposterously short. In Ogmore, Labour are priced at 1/5 to retain a 37% majority. In Newport East, they are at just 4/6 to defend a 21% majority.  Perhaps some bettors have inside information. I’m dubious. In both of these seats I’d rather be backing Labour at those prices than the Conservatives at 3/1 and 11/10 respectively. The prices are just too short.

For the same reason, Labour look good value at 3/1 in Vale of Clwyd. They hold the seat with a very experienced MP in Chris Ruane, who is very used to scrapping for votes. The seat is relatively close to Merseyside, which has a Labour party that in recent elections has demonstrated a ferocious ability to work neighbouring constituencies to secure outsized swings as compared with the national figure. He’ll be harder to unhorse than that price suggests.

If you’re looking to bet on the Conservatives, unless you have compelling information, I’d be looking at the size of swing required. The 5/4 in Bridgend looks tempting, given that the Conservatives only require a 5.5% swing and the polls suggest that they’re doing twice as well as that in Wales. With 40% of the vote last time, they might take the seat just by standing still.

There’s no evidence as yet of the Conservatives significantly gaining vote share in Wales, so I would not bet on them in seats where they had a low vote share in 2017 – the votes would have to fall in a very precise way for them to take such seats unless they actually gain vote share. I’ve mentioned Ogmore once. The Conservatives tallied 25% of the vote in 2017. If they’re not going to increase their vote share, 3/1 is ludicrously short for them to win it.

Plaid Cymru haven’t advanced much in the polls so you wouldn’t expect them to be particularly well-placed to make gains.  Ynys Mon is their best prospect, but that is murky, given its long history of voting for the person rather than the party. You’d need more local knowledge than I have to risk your money.

The Lib Dems have their tails up. However, they have few obvious targets in Wales – unsurprisingly since they were wiped out in 2017. If they tally 12% in the polls, that vote will have to go somewhere, but it’s not at all clear where.  They will fight hard to retain Brecon & Radnorshire, which they won earlier this year at a by-election, and they will scrap with Plaid Cymru over Ceredigion (like Ynys Mon, a very personality-driven seat). Elsewhere their best hope in reality is to establish themselves as being back in contention. They held Cardiff Central till 2015 but 11/2 looks very mean for them to get a 24.5% swing from third place. Not a bet for me.

This brings me to the newest party on the block, the Brexit party. So far they’ve had a woeful election, withdrawing candidates from every Conservative-held seat after pressure from the newspapers. They are as a result unlikely to obtain anything like the 15% in Wales that they polled in that last poll. But if they do, that vote is likely to be concentrated in specific seats. The Brexit party performed very well in the Welsh valleys in the Euro elections and UKIP scored fairly well in some of these seats in 2015, demonstrating a continuing strident Euroscepticism in these areas. The bold might fancy a flutter on some of the long shot bets on them in such seats – 80/1 in Llanelli or 50/1 in Torfaen for example. This is 2019. Stranger things have happened.

Alastair Meeks