h1

So the Deal’s going down. Then what?

November 17th, 2018

 

 

May’s numbers don’t add up for now. Is the threat of No Deal enough to change minds?

You have to salute her indefatigability. Despite the Prime Minister being just about the only MP prepared to champion the government’s Brexit Deal, despite the loss of another two cabinet ministers, plus various other more junior ones, despite the letters of No Confidence openly going in to the Chairman of the 1922, despite the three hours of parliamentary pummelling she took – mostly from her own side – when reporting the Deal the House, Theresa May soldiers on.

That she does so is down to the fact that while no-one likes what she’s putting forward, she at least does have a plan that doesn’t involve flying unicorns. Rees-Mogg made a serious tactical error when he openly announced his letter being sent, and then failed to trigger the No Confidence motion. His credibility as the voice of the Eurosceptic right – and the threat they pose to the PM – have to be diminished now it’s highly likely that his colleagues have failed to follow his action.

(It is just possible that the 48 letters have gone in and the Graham Brady is waiting for an opportune moment to make the announcement. There’s no obligation for him to announce that the threshold has been met the moment the 48th letter goes in, though the spirit of the rules suggest he should. Some commentators have suggested that he would give May advance notice of the No Confidence vote, were one triggered, and reports this week that he’s already met with her and with the Chief Whip don’t entirely go against him doing so now. However, were she to know that such a vote was imminent, I don’t think the PM would be flat-batting the bowling).

However, while the PM might survive for now, her Deal will not; not in its current shape anyway. Labour is going to vote against, as will the smaller parties, including – thanks to the two-tier backstop – the DUP. That alone would leave the PM in perilous danger, relying on Labour rebels, of whom there are just a handful. Those votes will be far outweighed though by the Tory rebels opposed to the deal, of which there could easily be fifty or more.

The net result is that the government is likely to lose the vote by a hundred or more.

One tactical problem the whips have is that the numbers are so heavily against them that it will be very hard to play to the sense of MPs’ loyalty. If the votes of a few could mean the difference between success and failure then there would be immense pressure on the waverers but that isn’t the case. Those opposed can vote it down with safety in numbers, knowing that theirs wasn’t the crucial vote.

So far, so bad. There are, of course, a small number of MPs and members of the public who actually want for Britain to leave the EU under a No Deal outcome. Some of these genuinely have a fair idea of just how hard the hit to the economy and essential services could be; most almost certainly don’t. The rest of the MPs voting against the Deal, and the members of the public backing that position, are doing so because they think that out of the political chaos that would result, some means to a different outcome would be found – perhaps with the side-dish of a general election, a change of government, a change of PM or whatever else the person in question is apt to desire.

How realistic is that? Perhaps the best way to think about it is to look at each of the options in turn.

A change of PM

In some ways, it’s surprising this hasn’t already happened. As Rees Mogg finally noticed, the policy is a function of the person. As long as May remains in place a deal something like Chequers will be on the table – hence, if you want to replace the policy, you have to replace the person. There are at least four big downsides to that logic though. Firstly, it only really counts if you are really not keen on both the deal and No Deal, both of which are currently on the table and therefore don’t require a change of PM; secondly, even if you can get someone else who will aim for a different policy, it has to be deliverable and it’s pretty clear that the EU is unlikely to budge much; thirdly, elections are inherently unpredictable and there’s no guarantee that you will get the sort of leader you want; and fourthly, the public is unlikely to look kindly on a Tory Party which decides that the best use of half the time left before 29 March 2019 is to engage in an outright civil war.

As on so many occasions so far, May is likely to survive for now because the alternatives are worse.

A change of Deal

The downside to Chequers Plus is that no-one likes it; the upside is that it probably remains less intolerable to more players than any other likely possibility. If it’s voted down, can the government (led by whoever), go back and get something different? Two huge hurdles make that very hard: time and negotiating space. The EU are understandably keen not to give any hint that there are more concessions on the table and that the Deal took them as far as they could go, and that’s probably true. It’s highly unlikely that there could be any looser transitional deal available, so the Brexiteers, it’s this or nothing. For Labour though, or others who want a closer relationship, that might be possible. The EU won’t want to reopen talks but nor will they want Britain to crash out. Of the two, they traditionally prefer putting a crisis off, where possible. In reality, that would need a Labour government though. What I wouldn’t like to guess on is whether there might be a deal where the UK trades a closer relationship for now – putting Britain on the same level of alignment as N Ireland, for example – for either a definite expiry date or a unilateral withdrawal clause. Something like that might satisfy the Tory and DUP MPs.

A genuinely different deal is probably undeliverable while the parliamentary maths remain as they are, though some amendments might be possible.

A change of government

This is Labour’s stated – and probably actual – goal. The problem with it is that it requires either the government to deliberately commit hari kari (as opposed to doing so accidentally), or for Tory MPs to defect, or for the DUP to vote against the government on a confidence vote.

The first two outcomes are highly unlikely. The government is not going to want to call an election when it is so split and when its core policy is so lacking in popularity. To choose to do that would be to invite an even worse election campaign than last time. Nor are defections likely. Rebellions, yes; defections, no. There is still more than enough – not least Corbyn – binding the Tories together.

By contrast, the risk of the DUP voting the Tories out is not inconceivable, though it too is unlikely. In reality, it’s only probable if May’s deal – with the two-tier backstop – goes through. Otherwise, an outcome that preserves N Ireland’s relationship with the EU on the same basis as Britain will satisfy the DUP, even if that’s No Deal. The reality is that the parliamentary maths give the DUP enormous leverage and it’s far more beneficial for them to retain the balance of power than to hand Downing Street to Corbyn – but that doesn’t mean voting against the Tories on key policies.

The Deal v1.0.1

Could May simply bring back the same deal a second time, with only tiny tweaks? Possibly, yes. As time ticks on, renewed negotiations go nowhere and the pressure of time becomes ever more acute, Labour might start to wobble, as might some Tory MPs who’ve currently wavered to opposing it. Come January, or even February, will Labour continue to try to force an election even if all previous efforts have failed, there’s no obvious mechanism and there’s no time left? Perhaps that would be the point where May and the Tory whips could put together 320 votes, banking on a lot of Labour ones. Doing so would seriously risk a split in the Tory Party though.

A second referendum

This is the most popular of a whole herd of unicorns. A second referendum offers no attraction to the government, which would have to advocate the Deal, and which would have no enthusiasm or support in doing so. Leave aside that it could only be delivered now with an A50 extension, which is a questionable proposition – there is no-one to put the legislation forward. Parliament cannot simply force an Act on the government that the government doesn’t want, all the more so if its passage is only a matter of weeks. And even if it could, polling probably means that whatever won would have no stronger mandate than what we have now.

Conclusion

This is a period of extreme volatility and unusually, the rule that Things Usually Don’t Happen doesn’t apply. Something will happen, if only because Brexit is currently hard-wired into the timetable and simply amending that is Something Significant Happening.

However, I don’t think things will simply tick on like that. It is entirely possible that May could be deposed before March next year, in which case the Tories choose a Hard Brexiteer and the UK leaves without a deal – though that will hardly be the end of the affair.

More likely is that May struggles on, loses the vote, goes back to Brussels and tries to get change. Brussels, needing a deal to be signed off in order to protect the Irish, might offer quid pro quo amendments, which could be enough for the Commons to vote it through at a second time of asking. That’s now the best-case scenario.

David Herdson




h1

At one point this morning punters made it a 55% chance that TMay would be out this year

November 16th, 2018

That’s now dropped sharply

When you get dramatic political days like today it is interesting for gamblers to look back and see how betting prices have moved as events have unfolded.  The chart above shows the last 24 hours on the “which year will Mrs May leave” betting market on Betfair. The odds are shown as percentages.

As can be seen this morning from about 0900 the money started piling on Mrs May going before the end of the year with the market reaching a peak of just over 55%. It is dropped down a fair bit and currently as I write an exit this year is rated as a 36% chance.

As I reported on a thread header earlier I’m backing Mrs My to survive 2018 though I expect the odds to move quite sharply should the required 48 signatures for a confidence vote before coming.

My guess is that if there is a ballot then Theresa May will survive simply because her ousting would trigger an immediate leadership contest with all the uncertainties that that entails.

What has not happened is a unifying figure in emerging with in the party.  When the Conservatives leader confidence procedure was used in 2003 against Iain Duncan Smith there was broad consensus within the party that Michael Howard should be a successor.

We simply don’t have a similar situation at the moment and that is probably Theresa May’s greatest defence. I have to say that I think she has performed against adversity remarkably well in the circumstances and at least her voice is holding up.

Mike Smithson




h1

Mad Tory Friday part 2…..

November 16th, 2018



h1

Moggsy’s TM confidence vote gamble could rebound into a confidence vote on himself

November 16th, 2018

He’ll look weak if not enough fellow CON MPs follow

Yesterday the old Etonian father of six, Jacob Rees-Mogg, took a massive gamble when he had an impromptu press conference outside the palace of Westminster in which he declared his lack of confidence in the state-school educated Mrs May. He announced that he had sent a letter calling for a confidence vote and it looked as though the other 47 letters needed were either there or would be arriving quickly.

He built up the expectation that others would follow and that maybe we could have had an announcement from Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 committee, last night that a confidence vote had been triggered.

Well now that hasn’t happened and each hour that goes on without news from Mr Brady will increase suggestions that this attempt to get rid of the prime minister is struggling.

    The most important thing when you’re mounting a coup is to get a body quickly and that does not seem to have happened. Could it be that Moggsy has overstated his position?

If this proves to be the case, and the next day or so will reveal that, he will have actually strengthened the position of Theresa May who has been trying to steer a very difficult course on the EU exit over the last few months.

Currently on Betfair 2018 as TMay’s exit year is rated as a 43% chance. I’m laying that which means I win if she is still in post on New Year’s day 2019.

Mike Smithson




h1

A massive Westminster day ends with TMay still in place

November 15th, 2018

The “bloody difficult woman” will be difficult to shift

Although I disagree with her on so many things you can but admire the way she is holding on and battling forward in spite of all the obstacles and setbacks. This was always going to be a very difficult period for the Prime Minister who took over shortly after the referendum in July 2016 never more so than today.

Throughout she has made as her objective ensuring that the referendum outcome is delivered while at the same time seeking to safeguard the economy. We have seen over the years how Conservative Party can be hideously difficult for a leader to navigate when it comes to things relating to the EU as has been illustrated so much today. This was never going to be easy.

Dominic Raab the Brexit secretary who has quit had a lot of coverage during the day and it is probably the first time many have had a good look at him. I’m less than impressed. He’s a lightweight especially when it comes to comparisons with the Prime Minister. He would have done his position much more good if the resignation has come after last night’s cabinet meeting and not today.

I thought Moggsy’s announcement that he had sent a letter in to the 1922 committee chair would be the trigger for the other 47 letters that would start a leadership process. So far that hasn’t happened and suggests a lack of organisation if indeed there is an ousting plot in place.

Whatever this is all a welcome break from Mr. Trump.

Mike Smithson




h1

If TMay survives a confidence vote she’d be immune from another challenge for a year

November 15th, 2018

After an extraordinary 24hrs at Westminster in which a total, as I write, of six ministers having resigned all the talk now is that Theresa May could soon be facing a confidence vote.

For this to happen it requires 48 different CON MPs to write to the chairman of the 1922 committee, Graham Brady, asking for such a move to take place.

Jacob Rees-Mogg has announced that he has sent a letter in and has indicated that he might support Priti Patel or Penny Mordaunt. Moggsy made clear though there was now nothing that the Prime Minister could do to change his mind that she wasn’t right for the job.

So we could be heading for a leadership contest but the first requirement is that a majority of Tory MPs participating in the ballot actually vote that they have no confidence in Mrs May.

    That is far from certain. There is a big difference between getting the 48 letters in to trigger the ballot and securing the support of perhaps 155 MPs in order to ensure that the motion succeeds.

It would, however, clear the air.

The big Gamble the letter signers would be taking is that if Mrs May did survive that confidence vote then she would be guaranteed a full year before another challenge could be made. In the ensuing period, of course, Britain is due to leave the EU on March 29th.

My guess is that the PM would probably survive the VONC but it is nothing like as certain as it might have been a week or so ago.

If she was forced out Mrs. May would arguably be the fourth consecutive CON PM to have been brought down by the EU issue.

Mike Smithson




h1

Raab’s resignation sparks off huge movements on the TMay exit, next GE date & next CON leader betting markets

November 15th, 2018

Punters expect TMay to go this year

Raab becomes the new CON leader favourite

And 2019 the year for the next general eletion

The prices are based on the Betfair exchange and the charts are from Betdata.io.

Mike Smithson




h1

I just wonder if Trump could decide to call it a day and quit

November 15th, 2018

Just be thankful you don’t work in the West Wing

Away from Brexit for a moment and things do not appear to be happy in the White House. This from the excellent Political Wire

For weeks this fall, an ebullient President Trump traveled relentlessly to hold raise-the-rafters campaign rallies — sometimes three a day — in states where his presence was likely to help Republicans on the ballot,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

“But his mood apparently has changed as he has taken measure of the electoral backlash that voters delivered Nov. 6. With the certainty that the incoming Democratic House majority will go after his tax returns and investigate his actions, and the likelihood of additional indictments by special counsel Robert Mueller, Trump has retreated into a cocoon of bitterness and resentment.”

“Behind the scenes, they say, the president has lashed out at several aides, from junior press assistants to senior officials.”

There’s a similar picture in the latest Vanity Fair by Gabriel Sherman under the heading “INSANITY,” “FURIOUS,” “ON HIS OWN”: TRUMP’S POST-MIDTERMS BLUES ARE VEXING HIS STAFF AND ROILING THE WHITE HOUSE.

“Last Tuesday, he was in high spirits as he watched election returns come in with about a hundred friends at the White House. Trump told people that his barnstorming rally schedule had mobilized his base and held Republican losses to historical lows, while increasing Republican gains in the Senate. “He really thought he won the midterms,” a prominent Republican who spoke with Trump said..

..But by Wednesday, after hours of commentary about the suburbs’ distaste for him and with seat after undecided House seat slipping toward the Democrats, his mood slid, too, hitting bottom in a bizarre and combative press conference. “He was furious about the narrative. He said, ‘Look, I went to all these states and now people are saying Trump lost the election,’”

Meanwhile the outstanding counts continue and the Democrats increase their stranglehold on the incoming House of Representatives. A total of maybe 40 net gains is being talked about and in the new year Trump’s administration could face a whole range of investigations with subpoena powers.

The last thing that Trump and his family want is to be probed and I just wonder whether he might call it a day. I’ve had a little flutter on Betfair at 55/1 that Trump will be out this year.

Mike Smithson