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Soaring UKIP poll ratings affect several markets

UK political betting has been dominated by the UK Independence Party following a YouGov poll showing that that it could beat the Lib Dems for third place in the Euro Elections. In other surveys UKIP has taken 4-5% out of the Tory share of the vote in the main General Election polls as well one on the race for the London Mayor. This affects the General Election, Party Leaders and the London Mayoral Markets.

The big political question is whether the UKIP effect will be long-lasting or will it fade out as happened after the last Euro Election when UKIP’s Jeffrey Titford (pictured above) became an MEP?

1999 Euro Election - UKIP vote share 6.65%
2001 General Election - UKIP vote share 1.5%

If UKIP maintains the polling levels of this week then it could have big implications for Michael Howard’s Tory revival. One factor helping UKIP in next week’s Euro election is the timing of the election with 14m people having postal ballots. For them the election is over once they’ve mailed the ballot envelope - and 90% will, if previous voting experiments are anything to go by, have done this within the next one or two days. So if this is the high point of UKIP support then it will get maximum benefit from it.

Party Leaders Charles Kennedy is the politician most at risk. If , as the polls predict, UKIP beat the Lib Dems into 4th place in the Euro Election then it could spell his demise? His strong point is that the Lid Dems did so badly in 1999 that there is almost bound to be an improvement. The UKIP poll might be a flash in the pan and there could be a recovery. The best option is to wait until the final opinion polls next week. If UKIP is still ahead then a leadership bet against Kennedy would be worth making.

Labour Leader at General Election. John Prescot’s recent comments are making this very confusing but we are not convinced that Tony Blair will be going so DON’T BET in the Betfair and William Hill market. If you think that Blair will not be there, as last week, William Hill’s price is much better.

Mayor of London - person or party. Last week’s poll showing that Livingstone was 14% ahead was almost solely due to UKIP eating into the Norris vote. If, as in 2000, Norris receives the lion’s share of the UKIP 2nd preferences then it will not upset his chances too much. Interestingly the same poll showed the Tories 6% ahead in the London Aseembly election that is held at the same time. We’ve always said that this is the key figure because all the evidence is that Tory voters will go with the party for the Mayor and won’t switch to Labour.

Treat with great caution the pollsters report that 57% of Londoners are saying they are “certain or very likely” to vote. Last time the polls were also predicting turnouts at well over 50% - on the day it was only 34%. Most of those who did not vote were declared Livingstone supporters. Will the same happen this time? This is a punt but we think that at the current price Norris remains good value. BACK.

White House Race 2004. Again the tightness of the race is not being reflected in the UK prices. The latest round of polls either have Bush and Kerry level pegging or Kerry just ahead. Kerry at 2.1 or more is really good value. This will surely move downwards. BACK KERRY.

Date of General Election. A new market this week and one which confuses many people outside the UK. Surely, they say, you KNOW when the next election will be. Well we don’t - it all upto the Prime Minister who, admittedly, has to get “permission” from the Queen. The hot favourite is April - June 2005 though at 1.4 this does not offer good value. A change of leadership, events in Iraq, or a whole whose of things could impact on this. We’ll watch this market carefully to see if value situations develop.

Party winning most seats at UK General Election. The UKIP poll rise at the expense of the Tories has seen prices slip a little back. Our CALL is to wait until after the June 10 elections. Provided the post-June 10 opinion polls are showing Tories leads of 6% or less then backing Labour should be a good value bet. The Tory success in the 1999 Euro Elections had no impact on subsequent opinion polls or the 2001 General Election.

Spread Betting on Commons seats. The Spread Betting price has eased to:-

LAB 322-332 seats
CON 248-258 seats
LIB 52-57

The magic number of seats to for a Commons majority is 324 - so in spite of everything punters are not confident about Labour’s chances. Wait until after June 10 before betting. There is no value here at the moment. DON’T BET.

NOTE: When we make a call we are stating that we believe that the chances of something happening are better than the odds that are available. All prices quoted are as at time of posting. We endeavour to ensure that material is accurate when posted. However Politicalbetting.com can accept no respnsiblity for the information on the site or opinions expressed. Users make bets entirely at their own risk.

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The Chief Executive and campaign guru of the Lib Dems, Lord Chris Rennard, has done a brilliant job attacking the postal voting experiment and not just over printing problems, the prospect of sealed letter boxes because of industrial action and fraud. He has rightly pointed out the constitutional implications of the Government ignoring the Electoral Commission’s ruling on the scale of the experiment.

But will Lord Rennard’s first action after the Euro Election not be on the postal voting debacle but to have a quiet word with Charles Kennedy about his future?

Could it be that all 3 of the men who led the main parties just nine months ago might be out of their jobs by the General Election?

Already IDS is gone and there is little doubt that the pressure is on Kennedy and Blair.

The less than helpful comments in recent days by John Prescot are putting the focus on Blair - if the Prime Minister is secure then his usually forthright deputy should be saying so clearly and not raising more doubts with every utterance.

If the poll prediction that the Lib Dems might come in 4th place behind UKIP turns out to be correct then the “dump Kennedy” calls within the Lib Dems could be impossible to stop. He is already blamed by many in the party fo not taking the huge opportunity available to the party during the hapless Tory leadership of IDS.

Only being able to come 4th in the post-Iraq war climate would confirm everything his party detractors have been saying.

We have been saying for months that we have not been convinced that either Blair or Kennedy will go but that at least one of them might. Our ongoing call has been to LAY Kennedy and Blair in the Party Leaders -market.

We now believe that as well there is good value in backing the NONE option - meaning that both Kennedy and Blair will be gone. The prices, at 10 or more are still good value.

Picture BBC

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But the Tories are 6% ahead for the London Assembly .
The latest poll putting Ken Livingstone 14% ahead might seem fatal to our London call that the election is very close but we have had nothing this time about turnout or 2nd preferences. We have not had, either, the deep probing about the affect of Ken being Labour candidate discussed here yesterday.

Ken Livingstone might have been able to obliterate all reference to the fact that he is Labour candidate on his campalgn materials but when Londoners vote on June 10 they will see the Labour logo printed next to his name on the ballot paper.

We have been saying for months that with Livingstone as Labour candidate the one in 3 Londoners who will turnout will cast their mayoral vote along party lines. This is the heart of our call. At this stage last time only half of declared Tory supporters said they would vote for Norris - on the day 5 out of 6 did. We expect a near full house on June 10.

The latest YouGov figures for the London assembly show the Tories well ahead and provide real encouragement to Norris backers.If CON supporters vote the party ticket for Mayor then he is in by a clear margin.

The figures are-
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CON 34%
LAB 28%
LDEM 16%
GRN 9%,
UKIP 5%

Following a similar survey in 2000 on party split Labour got 7% less and CON 6% more in the actual election We expect that the differential turnout in outer London will see the CON figure rise by 3-4% at the expense of LAB. The Green 2nd prefs will go to Ken and UKIP to Norris. Last time Norris got most LD 2nd prefs.

Four years ago ICM, the pollster that describes itself as “Britain’s most accurate” reported that among those certain or very likely to vote, Livingstone had 53%, Norris 17 and Frank Dobson and Susan Kramer each had 12%. Three days later Livingstone got 39% to Norris’s 27.1%.

If you are backing Livingstone remember that people tell pollsters that they suppport him but do not vote.Those that support Norris do.

We think that YouGov will be closer than ICM was but that the party split and turnout are critical.

A fascinating election to bet on and Norris is still great value. London election.

The May ICM poll showing Labour 4% ahead has further reinforced the gap with YouGov which, like Populus, has the Tories 4% ahead.Which pollster should gamblers believe?

This week’s YouGov poll showing that UKIP is heading to beat the Lib Dems for third place in next month’s Euro Election - an outcome that would surely mean the end for Charles Kennedy - should enable us to test the pollster.For if on June 10 YouGov can get both the low turnout Euro and the London Mayoral Elections correct then the doubts about internet polling will be ended once and for for all.

The harsh reality for all opinion polls is that on election days real people put real ballot papers into real ballot boxes and a real result is announced. On those days all the theories and all the differing approaches to the methodology are put to the harshest examination of all. General Election and other bets are decided.

Unfortunately onlyYouGov has carried out specific June 10 polls. So we will we will have to wait for a real test against actual numbers the new Populus strategy of compensating for “Shy Labour supporters”, and the ICM approach to dealing with those who are not “absolutely certain to vote” .

But what will be on the line will be the YouGov approach of polling solely on the internet amongst a group of people who have registered with the company and who get paid for their opinions.

What concerns many is that to be part of a YouGov survey you first have to register with the company and you have to have access to the internet - factors that could skew the sample.

YouGov supporters retort that the sample surveyed in conventional telephone polls is restricted to people with a land-line who happen to be in when the interviewer calls - both factors that could distort the sample. With YouGov you fill in the questionnaire in your own time without there being any personal interaction with an interviewer.

The person being surveyed does not have to provide basic personal data because that has already been stored on YouGov’s files. Thus the “interview” takes place at a time of the person’s choosing and is focussed solely on the issues being examined.

A feature of a YouGov survey is that questions can be asked in a number of different ways.

The real test is in the results. At the last General Election the most accurate opinion polls were those of YouGov and ICM - which are still 8% apart.

A factor that might help YouGov’s is that those questioned can be less consistent in their answers to a computer than to a live interviewer where people might feel constrained by what they have said before.

Thus a little probing can produce a more revealing result. This was from a London Mayoral Election poll just before Christmas when Ken Livingstone’s return to Labour was being discussed. Note the way the anti-Livingstone element increases with each question.

Q1 “How would you vote with Ken as an Independent?”
37 Livingstone, 19 Norris, 12 Hughes, 4 Gavron (Lab) 3 Others
ANTI-Ken Livingstone component - 38%

Q2 “How would you vote with Ken as official Labour candidate?”
33 Livingstone, 20 Norris, 15 Hughes, 5 Others
ANTI-Ken Livingstone component - 40%

Q3 “Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for
Mr Livingstone if he stood as Labour’s official candidate?”
9 More 19 Less likely, 26 FOR anyway, 35 AGAINST anyway
ANTI-Ken Livingstone component - 54

These findings have played a major part in our call on the London election. Hopefully YouGov will be commissioned for a final week’s poll. If they get this one right then their credibility will be enormously enhanced.’