Can Johnson pull a rabbit out of the hat on the bill?
May 22nd, 2006
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Will my 18/1 long-shot stop another damaging rebellion?
With the controversial Education Bill coming back to the Commons the next few days could be crucial for the leadership chances of Alan Johnson - currently in the second favourite slot and who I suggested was a good value bet at 18/1.
The bill’s passage gives the new Education Secretary a great platform to build up his public profile and to show his political skills dealing with the most divisive domestic Labour party issue for years.
For the bill only got this far in March thanks to the support of the Tories. They stepped in to more than fill the void after after a rebellion in the parliamentary Labour party that saw 52 voting against and a further 25 abstaining.
A real fear for Blair this week is the possibility of a Tory ambush. Cameron’s team could find a reason to back off their support and the Government could be defeated on a flag-ship piece of legislation in the Commons.
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If that happened then Blair’s days at Number 10, surely, would be even more numbered than they currently are.
With the number of Blair dissenters having grown following the half-baked Brown assault on Number 10 two weeks ago the focus for all those who want him out now is on the bill.
Enter then the politically-savvy former London postman who was elected boss of one of the country’s biggest unions when he was just 42. His options, however, seem limited. Watering down the bill even further would make it easier for Team Cameron to vote against. Leaving it in its current state could fuel a bigger rebellion than March.
But has Alan Johnson got something else up his sleeve?
Could, for instance, he come up with a measure he could take that would, say, allow a partial withdrawal by the Prime Minister avoiding a potentially hazardous vote without conceding anything on the “reform agenda”?
I have no idea - but the opportunity is there for Johnson to make a mark and win support from all sides of the party.
This could have an impact on the Blair leaving date, Labour leadership and next Chancellor markets.
Having been rewarded handsomely for betting against David Davis in last year’s Tory leadership contest I remain unconvinced by the received opinion that says Gordon Brown is a similar or even greater certainty. At least in the Tory contest we knew when Howard was going and contenders could emerge. With the Labour race we have no idea about the timing and anything could happen. It could be a walk-over for the Chancellor or it could be a bitterly fought contest stoked up by the media. Who knows?
One thing’s for sure - if the Johnson price eases to 18/1 again I’ll be there with my cash.
Mike Smithson
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Mike, Was the then Union of Communication Workers to which Johnson was elected in 1992 as General Secretary “one of the country’s biggest”? Hmmm. Like you, I too have been a longstanding “fan” (in a Tory sort of way ;)) of Alan Johnson…but let’s not get too carried away.
I wonder if Cameron wants to inflict a defeat on the floor of the House on this issue. It might suit his book better to contrive a situation where it is clear that Blair and Johnson can only carry this legislation on Tory votes. It is, surely, the best Tory Education Bill that could be devised - at least, I don’t remember a single Tory Peebie denouncing it as socialist…
My impression from last week is that there are a fair number of rebels keen to indicate their dissatisfaction with aspects of the Bill but unwilling to vote with the Tories on it. So we’ll see a series of votes in which there are chunky Labour rebellions where it doesn’t matter but no close results. The exception would be if the Tories do a U-turn and back a Labour rebel amendment, but it’s hard to find one that the Tories could stomach (could they vote for a ban on all existing grammar schools, for instance?) that isn’t so obscure that nobody will care.
Interesting if generally depressing poll on whom people trust in the Telegraph. Basically they hardly trust anyone:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/05/22/nlab22.xml
Compared with 2003, everyone is trusted less except judges (a curious exception in view of recent controversies about Afghan hijackers etc.). Only 19% trust Tory politicians, and 20% trust Labour ones. A slightly larger 25% trust LibDem ones, but before LDs get too thrilled, note that this rating has plummeted more than either of the others.
The only bright spot for us politicians is that local MPs are trusted by 44% (that’s a fall too, though) and that redtop journalists only get 12% (yeah, a result!). The figures reflect the generally disillusioned atmosphere that I find in other contexts too. I suspect that the MP figure implies that incumbency could be more important than usual next time - “I don’t trust any of the national politicians so I may as well support Bloggs again, he’s relatively decent”.
Ian Gibson said the rebels will be “in the 70’s if not higher”
3 - agreed, hard to see any of the rebel amendments being supported by the tories - and vice versa. Not sure how, but Mike’s compromise could be a promise on non-statutory guidance of some kind. Although I’m not sure how much love or trust exists within the plp to accept any vague promises of this kind.
Saying all that the rebel amendments are almost wholly reasonable. Sadly, I can see more depression and bad feeling within the party - especially if the leadership choose conflict over compromise.
2 - Indeed. I’m sure I read somewhere that David Willetts had confirmed that the Tories would not oppose the bill nor support any of the Labour rebels’ amendments at Report Stage.
[5] Pretty much my point - to use an older language, if all that Labour men (and women) can achieve is Tory measures, why bother with a Party card?
Very clever tactic by Tory central office regarding Bromley - to cast UKIP as the challenger. Dispite the obvious nonsense of this claim, if the Tories say it often enough enough of the public will be caught by it to give UKIP a decent 10% share and scupper any chance of a shock LibDem win.
Nick Palmer I suspect that the MP figure implies that incumbency could be more important than usual next time.
Hope springs eternal.
Mark @ 8 - What is this based on, I have seen nothing of a Tory campaign. Do you have a link?
Today’s Telegraph: “Tory HQ shake-up [...]“
OT: Montenegro electoral commission confirms the win for the “yes” to independence.
Thanks - I shall check it out, but I still don’t see how this can work, surely it would spilt the Tory vote, as it would give UKIP credibility, and make it easier for the Lib Dems to win!?!!
If the handling of the public sector pensions is anything to go by ,then we can expect a complete ‘give away’ by the very unimpressive Alan Johnson.
His public sector pensions surrender has now swollen the bill for public sector pension plans by £ 6 billion in seven months.According to the Institute of Economic Affairs each month that passes when the government fails to increase the public sector retirement age costs the taxpayer nearly £ 1 billion.
I guess the moral of the story is as with Prescott,Hewitt,Kelly,Clarke,Mandelson,Blunkett,Byers at el the more incompetent you are the further you progress.
13. it could have probably been more helpful to talk up the Greens who probably “share” some votes wit the Libdems.
13. Only if you believe UKIP voters come disproportionately from erstwhile Tory supporters, which as we have noted many times on this site, is not necessarily the case. UKIP fish in protest vote waters which in some cases are also trawled by the Lib Dems.
TB has always been tolerant of sleaze in his own party, but the public has only just seen it. Why have they been so slow? Its because they didn’t want to believe it of Tony. Some still don’t. You can get that like in business, when its not going your way. It is amazingly easy to believe what you want to believe, rather than what is true. I’ve seen it in normally shrewd men when their business is sliding towards receivership, and they are under huge pressures. I’ve done it myself, giving personal guanantees when I shouldn’t.
You can’t get out of it on your own—you need help. But the problem then is that everyone has an angle; it is very tough to find impartial aid. TB is in a fish-bowl, so it is even harder for him.
Even his admirers must admit that they are disappointed with the administration of most govt departments. No govt can ever act in an effective, value for money way. That cannot be a target. But they must act with integrity. That is the failure that won’t be forgiven. The tories are still evens for the next GE. Fill your boots, before they go odds-on.
13/15 - Not sure I agree. The fact is, to win the Lib Dems have got to get protest votes from dissatisfied Tories. If the Tories can portray UKIP as a serious challenger a significant number of those votes would probably go there instead. OK, it’s a risk, and there’s certainly a danger of votes going to UKIP which would otherwise have stayed Tory, but overall I suspect there would probably be a net benefit to the Tories.
Of course, this all depends on UKIP actually looking credible during the campaign, which is where it would probably all fall down. Given that they have no track record of ever running a seriously credible looking by-election campaign, and that they will be up against a big, highly visible, and well organised Lib Dem campaign it seems pretty unlikely that UKIP will be taken too seriously by the voters.
17
This is reinforced in the latest ICM poll where 54% of those polled believe that seats in the House of Lords were offered in return for secret loans and donations to Labour, or the funding of the government’s City Academies programme.Only 28% believe they were not.
This has been reinforced over the weekend by Alastair Graham the government sleaze buster pronouncing that the current government is just as sleazy as the Major government.
18. No European issues in the news either, unlike in Sth Staffs.
The main problem for the Lib Dems is, where will these ‘dissatisfied’ Tories come from? the only group that can conceivably be dissatisfied just now is a reactionary minority (which I doubt even exists in significant numbers) who will surely stay at home or vote for a fringe group rather than the Lib Dems.
In the past (2001) I would have thought UKIP did hit the LDs re protest votes as much if not even more than others, but I think now people are more aware of what they stand for and they hit the Tories more (2005).
If the Tories are raising it (and I haven’t seen the article) I would have thought it was to ensure their vote didn’t move to UKIP, however as most of agree on this site raising the profile is more likely to do more damage than good.
I agree with Andrea if they are really trying to claim they are the challengers rather than trying to scare people in to not wasting their vote it would make sense for them to focus on the Greens as a challengers as they could take votes of the LDs.
Having said that to identify either UKIP or the Greens as a challenger is obviously ludicrous. Neither could win but either could do enough damage under the right circumstrance to deprive the Tories or LDs of victory.
Re 18 I also think it is unlikely UKIP would run a credible campaign, however my memory of Romsey was that they were well organised (their campaign headquarters being next door to the LDs on an industrial estate so it was easy to observe). Having said that they only got 900 votes I think.
20 - this is why any effort to ramp LD chances in this seat are doomed to be even more embarrassing than usual. No tory voter has any reason other than to feel like voting tory.
I still think the Labour vote will hold up better than some here believe and if there are fringe party candidates that do relatively well it will be the Greens and BNP.
Also, a lot of comment says Cameron will have problems imposing an ‘A’ list candidate in the seat but surely Howard Flight would fit the bill?
18-Jeremy
‘Given that they have no track record of ever running a seriously credible looking by-election campaign, and that they will be up against a big, highly visible, and well organised Lib Dem campaign it seems pretty unlikely that UKIP will be taken too seriously by the voters.’
On the other hand, the Lib Dems do have a track record of running Bromley council briefly from 1997-2000 when council tax increased by 36% in 3 years together with £ 50 million in reserves being blown.No doubt that electors will be reminded of this recent Lib Dem experience.
3 — An extremely irritating post from Nick Palmer — perhaps some acknowledgment of the role of the New Lab government, for which he is such an enthusiastic trumpeter, in the plumetting of levesl of trust might have been
appropriate.
Local ? Nick — your biography on Ask Aristotle doesn’t seem to indicate any attachment to the Nottingham area before acquiring your seat. A local MP, in my book, is someone like Peter Law.
Alan Johnston is a pretty solid operator and any 18/1 is worth a punt. Not that he’ll be party leader, but the eventual contest will ensure plenty of scope for movement against Gordon.
As far as the Education Bill is concerned, there seems litle obvious scope for a Tory ambush, the more so as Conservative heavyweights as Letwin dominate the airways and pronounce the Education Bill worthy of a Tory administration ….. he said it !!
…………………………………………..
If the Tories lose Bromley it’ll be such a spectacular own goal that’ll match any we see by England in the World Cup !!
Firstly this by-election needs to be moved quickly to ensure that the Lib Dems do have the time to build any momentum. A late Summer or Autumn election would be a mistake. Tory squabbling over the candidate would also hand the Lib Dems an early opening.
In reality this should be an easy Tory hold as SNP in Moray. The Lib Dems should easily push Labour down to a poor third and the also rans just that.
21. 901!
20 I agree.
In the past this sort of by election was ideal for the LDs. Squeese Lab and cream off a good number of Tory votes because of the general dissatisfaction with them, but in the current climate and with DC as leader the latter is going to be hard. I don’t think they are percieved so much as the nasty party currently by so many and in particular that label does not, I think, stick to DC although attempts are being made to associate him with past actions/policies.
17,
If you are that confident, how much have you put on ?
At least 4 years out, odds on for what, an overall working majority?
Or most seats?
Morning all :). Completely o/t, I’ve finished crunching the numbers from Newham from May 4th and very interesting it is too. The base results were:
Labour 46.9% (54 seats)
Respect 26.1% (3 seats)
Conservative 15.2% (0 seats)
CPA 7.1% (3 seats)
Greens 2.3% (0 seats)
Lib Dems 1.8% (0 seats)
Now, to clarify these slightly. Labour, Respect and the Conservatives put up full slates of 60 candidates. The Christian People’s Alliance put up 29 candidates and at least one in each Ward. The Greens and Liberal Democrats put up 13 and 11 candidates respectively.
Labour won 90% of the seats on 47% of the vote. They lost one Ward (Green Street West) to Respect, where one of the sitting Councillors defected. He was re-elected, topping the poll. Green Street West also saw the highest turnout with over 45% voting. The higher turnout wards tended to be those where Respect polled best though their vote was fairly evenly spread across the Borough. The 26% polled by Respect compared with around 20% in East Ham and West Ham at the last GE and confirmed the Party as the principal opposition to Labour.
The Christian People’s Alliance is a localised group which is strongest in and around Canning Town. Their leader, Alan Craig, was the sole non-Labour Councillor elected in 2002 and he was returned with two colleagues in Canning Town South. CPA candidates finished second to Labour in Canning Town North and Custom House but were well behind.
For the Conservatives, 15% across the Borough was an improvement on the 12-13% in the East Ham and West Ham seats last year. Conservative candidates finished a clear second to Labour in only Beckton and Royal Docks (majority in the latter of 234 to Labour which must have been disappointing to the Tories given that they had a Councillor there, albeit a defector from Labour).
In a number of other Wards, including Wall End, East Ham South and Little Ilford, Conservative and Respect candidates polled within a couple of hundred votes of each other and their combined votes would have overtaken Labour.
Labour’s vote fell below the 50% level in Newham which must be a first for some time. The Mayoral election needed a run-off and my estimate is that Labour vote shares were down 15-25% across the board with most of that going to Respect or the CPA.
The Greens and Liberal Democrats put up only a few candidates and while individual candidates outpolled the Conservatives in some Wards, they never threatened the Labour/Respect or in Canning Town Labour/CPA duopoly.
To be honest, it will take something a deal more seismic than the events of the last couple of months to break the Labour stranglehold on Newham. The two main marginal Labour Wards now are Forest Gate South (Labour majority 88) and Plaistow North (Labour majority 76). Getting into those must be Respect’s priority for 2010 but it’s hard to see much else being vulnerable at this point. I suppose that if military action occurred in Iran, that would give Respect a new lease of life but other than that it’s hard to see Labour being seriously threatened here.
Other thought and this is hard to quantify - there’s no doubt May 4th saw a strong revival in Tory fortunes especially in London. However, I remain to be convinced that what we saw was a large-scale shift of votes to the Party as distinct from a more complex phenomenon. I think Labour in particular suffered from abstentions while the Conservative supporters were motivated to vote in higher numbers. What I don’t know is whether the increased Tory vote and turnout can simply be argued as being a greater motivation of the same base of support to come out and vote or whether it represents a sea-change in opinion. The Tories did well on May 4th - no doubt and if we knew the GE was going to have a 40% turnout, the same result looks probable but it doesn’t work like that. The GE tunrout will be much higher - will this increasing turnout confirm the Tory rise in support, or as in 2001 and 2005, will the increased turnout be motivated non-Conservatives whose numbers will exceed the Tory base ?
25 Moi. Apologies. Last but one para should read “do not have the time to build any momentum.”
RE 3, Nick, frankly it terrifies me that 12% of people trust red top journalists. That so many people can be so gullible is amazing.
As for lack of trust in politicians, what do you expect? St. Tony came in promising whiter than white policies and has been worse himself in terms of personal integrity than John Major. Most of the tories problems were to do with sex, but when Labour ministers do it they say it is a private matter. That would be fine but it was not what they were saying in the Major years. As for financial scandals, don’t even get me started.
So, if as a party you strive to spin how bad your opponents are then don’t be surprised if you leach away public trust in politics when you get caught at it.
Any way, it matters not what the truth of the matter is, it is perception. In that sense, Labour has lost the trust it had, and the Tories have not as yet fixed their trust problem. We will see who fixes that first.
The best result for the Tories is to lose Bromley to the Lib Dems. It will cement Ming’s leadership in the short term, which in the long run will benefit the Tories.
(I am applying the same logic that losing Cheadle would have been good for the Lib Dems as CK would then have gone quietly and quickly.)
32 SBS.
…. you’ll go down a bundle in Camp Cameroon !!
Johnson as the PM? I can’t see it, not unless there is a Brown implosion. Whilst he would get a fair amount of backing there is a profile issue that would make the the Labour Party as a whole and the PLP in the particular ultimately plump for Brown on the basis of trying to get electoral success.
Whether right or wrong there is still the feeling that Brown has it right on the economy (one area where Labour I think still hold sway over the Tories) and that when you at looking at retaining your seats come election time this is the best pole to cling to.
Whilst Brown himself might be messing up on this succession business (sounds more Royal Court machinations by the day)his camp have the tools with which to bring Blair down.
David Kendrick @ 17, John @ 19, it is corruption (lets call a spade a spade, and stop using sleaze) that will get Blair. It is the biggest tool in the Brownites box and cash for peerages is the tip of the spear. The Alistair Graham intervention wasn’t just about Blair, there was a point made by him that Brown seemed to be much more concerned about upholding high standards. That point was missed in the ‘Blair you don’t care’ headlines but it is part of the Brownites drip drip approach. What it really needs for them, however, is to go nuclear as they do have something destructive in the locker reagrding corruption. They don’t want to challenge Blair directly in terms of kicking him out, they want him to go either with a strict handover agreement or because a scandal has forced him out, thus no blood publically on the Brownite hands.
32 I agree, which is a bit odd as I still want the LDs to win (as I did Cheadle). I guess emotions override logic.
35 - furthermore, if I were a Labour rebel, I would pray for defeat in BG.
(Go back to 1990, Heseltine may have wanted to go canvassing for the LDs in Eastbourne.)
[31] Benedict - the 12% who trust red-top journalists might only read the sports pages, in which case their behaviour wouldn’t be wholly irrational…
As to Bromley, I wonder if the (doubtless planted) story isn’t in the hope that UKIP could beat Labour into fourth place to compensate for an anticipated smaller Tory majority over the Lib Dems? I agree that the Tories’ interest is to select a candidate and call the by-election PDQ.
At the same time, a loss in B & C would mean serious trouble for Cameron.
12. Andrea, Do you have a take on the Montenegro result. From my highly uninformed perspective I would have thought the people of Montenegro would have been crazy not to dissociate themselves from Serbia but it looks like it was a close run thing.
12. Andrea, Do you have a take on the Montenegro result? From my highly uninformed perspective I would have thought the people of Montenegro would have been crazy not to dissociate themselves from Serbia but it looks like it was a close run thing.
[29] Many thanks, Stodge. Didn’t (part of) Newham return a Labour MP before anywhere else did? I imagine that the CPA are a bunch of anti-abortionist gay-bashers, but I’d be more than happy to be told I’m wrong on that one.
[39][40] Surely it was to get their own entry into Eurovision?
RE: 37, Fair point, I’ll let them off…
41 The CPA are pro-life and pro-marriage…
http://www.cpalliance.net/docs/Manifesto.pdf
Johnson, would and could be at least deputy to GB.
He has a lot going for him, one he is English, comes across very well with the media, trade union links.
Also unlike Cameron, Blair, does understand poverty from first hand experience I believe.
He is not a public school boy, with all the privilege, and networking that brings to the elite of society.
So this might go down well with the Labour Party, and if elected, none partisan voters.
This might be the end of the Blair administration next year 07.
Nevertheless there is no certainty, it is odds on, the end of the Labour administration.
The Tories talking up UKIP fits in with the theory I expounded (rather incoherently, I fear) on Saturday evening - the Tories can regard this seat as being in the bag already, so they must concentrate on their next important task, which is to humiliate the Lib Dems. It doesn’t matter which party “succeeds” by comparison (I suggested that they should talk up Labour’s chances, just as they did in West Derbyshire back in the 1980’s) just as long as the Liberal Democrats are perceived to “fail” by whatever yardstick the commentators choose to use. Third place for the Lib Dems would be great, no serious impact by them would be good, but a near miss (say, within a few thousand votes) would still allow the Lib Dems to brag a bit and get public attention.
“At the same time, a loss in B & C would mean serious trouble for Cameron.”
Maybe the tactical voting will be by the anti-Cameron Tories then, to try and get the party to stick to its principles and not to pretent to be something it isn’t.
[44] Good job you’re not a salmon, Anna - you’d be on the lunch table quicker than the Tories could call a by-election in Bromley
Re: 41 & 44: The CPA stood in my Ward and beat both the Green and the Independent. I never saw or heard anything from them. As I said, their power base is Canning Town and a lot I think is based on Alan Craig. They fought Canning Town South very hard and put some effort into Custom House and Canning Town North.
They appeal to a “moral” standpoint which might once have been more akin to the Conservative view. They outpolled both the Conservatives and Respect in the three Wards mentioned which was no mean feat.
46 - but my point was that UKIP are more likely to pick up votes from the Tories if anti-European Tories (who would never vote LD anyway) think they are credible challengers.
Surely the Tories don’t think UKIP could overtake the LD’s! So why make the majority smaller by casting votes off their share?
48 “Good job you’re not a salmon, Anna” huh?!? I got called mad as a box of frogs on here the other day… What have I done to become linked with aquatic life?
41/44 stodge/Anna. Effectively the CPA believe in a theocracy :
“Christian Sovereignty over nations and in politics.”
Substitute Islamic for Christian and Iran here we come !!
52 Jack W: They seem to be a pretty ecumenical group, so their policies aren’t very fundamentalist. They want to see families being supported, more help for the poor and a restoration of the principle that doctors should do no harm (ie repeal 1967 Abortion Act). They also subscribe to enviromentalism and being “global citizens”…
Alter the emphasis a little, get rid of the pro-life agenda and the greens could use their manifesto…
I saw some of the CPA stuff in Kingston four years ago - it seemed pretty harmless.
53/54 Anna/Augustus. Hhhhmmmm ….. wolf in sheeps clothing ?? … and I doubt gays would regard the CPA as “harmless”.
55 From their local election manifesto this year
“The CPA affirm that whilst statistically marriage between one man and one woman offers the most balanced and the healthiest environment in which to nuture and bring up children, we are also comitted to providing appropriate support to all parents and guardinas.”
They really are more open-minded than you give them credit for…
37 Innocent Abroad: Like the logic on both counts, but if your sesond point is true it could be that they are being too clever for their own good. If you are correct and it works they humiliate Lab by pushing them into 4th, but taking Soclib’s point, it could make the LD challenge closer, if some Tory votes go to UKIP. Dangerous stuff and all too complicated with lots of unknowns. I’d love to know if your hypothesis is correct.
29. Stodge, thanks. very interesting recap of Newham situation.
39. Peter the Punter, frankly I don’t know much about the situation. I just reported the result (it seems it’s 55.4% in the end), because there were people interested yesterday night.
56 Anna. I’m afraid if you look beyond the motherhood and apple pie happy clappy exterior, the CPA have opposed all the gay equality legislation :
Civil Partnerships .. Gay Adoption .. Discrimination at the workplace .. Section 28/2A .. Age of Consent.
How much evidence do you need to see that the CPA aren’t especially keen on our gay brethren …… or to put a human face on their bigotry … Andrea would be a third class citizen in the UK. !! … not very nice Anna.
59. Jack, are you sure that Ruth Kelly is not a member?
60 Andrea. The CPA is far too liberal for Ruth Kelly !!
3- Mr Palmer, on the issue of trust in politicians.
Do you agree it is an insult for a copy of the Hutton Report (that was supposed to be about the circumstances around Dr David Kelly’s death) to be auctioned off with Cherie Blair’s autograph on it for £400 to raise funds for the Labour Party?
Do you agree that cashing in on a man’s death (presumably to help pay for Cherie Blair’s hair stylist) is in bad taste and even more sleazy than cashing in on the sale of Peerages?
By the way, the auctioneer was Mr sleaze Chris (underpants) Bryant who boasted that another copy of the Hutton Report with Alistair Campbell’s signature was resold for profit on Ebay.
It’s worth remembering that if it wasn’t for Campbell’s actions (denying the “sexing up” of intelligence and touring TV studios to “flush out” the BBC mole) Dr Kelly could still be alive. But he sticks two fingers up to that.
I am outraged at this, but do you find it acceptable?
You seem concerned about trust in politicians, but when will the day come when you will stand up and say that you do not accept this sort of behaviour from your colleagues?
The article about UKIP and Bromley referred earlier should be this one:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/05/22/ntory22.xml&sSheet=/news/2006/05/22/ixuknews.html
Farage is thinking to stand in the byelection.
the Bromley and Chislehurst association has been told that it does not need to choose from the A list.
The CPA draw their support principally from black and asian Christians in London. Roughly, they’re socially conservative, and fairly left wing economically.
Printz at 62, you couldn’t make that up could you?
Re someone posted on Montenegro, given that the population is essentially ethnic Serb its not surprising that the vote appeared close run, the links run very deep indeed. The reality was that the EU put the 55% qualification bar to deliberately avoid any grey areas. The fact it seems to be just over that may cause trouble but the hope is that it provides a big enough mandate to avoid that.
As it is many Serbian citizens aren’t too concerned at all by the split.
I suspect when the Telegraph says There are private Tory fears that, given Mr Forth’s stridently anti-European Union views, the UK Independence Party may be the most dangerous challenger. it may be a private Hefferlump thought rather than CCHQ thinking. He would like nothing better than mass defections to UKIP in ordr to undermine Dave?
If so he will be disappointed.
But UKIP will have to put up a candidate. If it is Farage that woud be great. He will be exposed for what he is.
There will no doubt be the usual long candidate list for a high profile by election. Fun for all.
But I would think the by election would not be called yet a while. The poor man has been dead for less than a week and I am not at all sure the funeral has been held yet.
So, steady on!
62 is that really true? It is difficult to believe that anyone could do that and not see the offence it would cause.
63 if Farge stands that could have an impact on the Tory vote I thnk, particularly if they don’t put up an anti EU candidate. Although I don’t share any of his views I think Farge is very good, particularly with the media.
If it was Nigel Farage, I reckon that he would be eaten alive. I saw him monstered in a live debate a few years ago; he did not impress me.
62 - Sorry and all that, but much though I hate New Labour, I just can’t believe that they’d be as obnoxious as that (and definitely not as foolish). When is this supposed to have happened, and where ?
RE: 62, That is so hideously offensive it is unbelievable even for this bunch, so do you have a link or other reference?
67. kjh, I know you’re a senior LibDem strategist and all, but where do you think they would find a pro-EU Tory candidate?
65. Given that Europe seems to be busy creating more and more small countries, as former countries split, I wonder what the next one to be created will be? Catalonia? Basque region? Scotland? Peoples Republic of Haringey?
70 Iain Dale has an item about it on his blog. Perhaps their defence will be along the lines of “The Show must go on. It’s the way he’d have wanted it.”
71 Just work at a constituency/regional level - small cog really, but reacted to Luke who drew the conclusion I knew nothing
[66] B2W wrote The poor man has been dead for less than a week and I am not at all sure the funeral has been held yet.
So, steady on!
Well, I deliberately didn’t comment on the day Eric Forth’s death was announced, but then Our Genial Host did a piece on it, so I decided it was an OK topic after that…
[72] Now that Haringey consists of colonial rule from Tottenham over Hornsey I’d expect it to split if the EU held a referendum there
Innocent I am not referring to the dicusion on the by election itself but the apparent rush to suggest that an early writ is essential.
71. Baskerville, there’re various degrees of not being pro-Eu….you know Daniel Hannan and Caroline Jackson are the same thing.
76. IA, I think a couple of Labourites survived in Hornsey.
76 So shouldn’t we have one in England to remove the Scottish Raj and cut the stream of imperial tribute to Edinburgh???
Where is our Ghandi, our Garibaldi, our moder Boudica when we want her?
78. are NOT the same thing……
73. Ian Dale’s blog seems not to have a search fuction…or at least I can’t see it! It would be helpful.
RE 81, It is the second story down on this link:
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/
And it is unbelievable. I just can’t see how anyone could have stayed in the same room with this going on, let alone bid on it.
72
Hopefully Scotland, afterall they have their parliament and all the necesary apparatus to run themselves, and maybe productive jobs could be found for their currenet MP’s in Westminster, looking after their own national affairs as oppossed to others.
I guess without the massive tax subsidy from England they would need a basic rate of income tax around 50%, they could then have the ultimate public sector economy.
74. kjh… just a little gentle cross-party ribbing. Have we heard from Luke since? His insights would be useful barometer of how the campaign is going!
78. Andrea… was just making the point that, once you’ve established that Chris Patten can’t stand, you’d need the investigatory skills of Sherlock Holmes to find a Tory parliamentary candidate who was pro-Brussels. I accept, however, that there are some already in Brussels.
76/79. I checked: there were 2 Labour “survivors” in the Hornsey part of the borough:
Matthew Cooke (Bounds Green ward)
Alan Dobbie (Noel Park ward)
82. Benedict White, thanks. Chris Bryant is a miserable man. Sadly Rhondda is a safe seat.
84. Beskerville, ok, I understand your point.
80 B2w. Well the Tories wouldn’t let Ghandi or Garibaldi in the country as asylum seekers …….. and Boudica’s on the Labour A list for a seat in Norwich !!
I’m sorry I do not have a link for the Hutton Report auction story. I will let you know if I find more. It was in the Mail on Sunday yesterday page 12 and 13.
The auction was said to take place after a four-course dinner for 200 guests “on Wednesday at the Arts Club in Mayfair and was organised by newly promoted Pensions Minister James Purnell.”
Jeremy Corbyn is quoted to say: “It is incredibly insensitive and in seriously bad taste.”
[85] Well, that’s the Wood Green bit of Milady Roche’s seat, Andrea
84 - Yes I am sure Luke could tell both the Conservatives and Lib Dems how to run the campaign in B/C - I think he goes to a gym there or uses a fish and chip shop regularly .
84 Thanks. Just a little sensitive that I went over the top the other day in my frustration, although I did enjoy others posts which I felt were more much more succinct than mine (and made me laugh)
[89] What a slip of the keyboard… I of course meant to say the Viscountess Featherstone’s
Having re-read it better: at least Rev Yfronts didn’t send it directly on ebay as I first understood.
So less miserable, always untactful.
89. Ok, IA, I back down! You know I’m not well informed and I didn’t look at the Haringey map!
90/91. I’m afraid he’s frequenting the same gym of Mark Oaten! You know those students who can’t afford a RENT…..
The Ming Dynasty hits its’ 65th year of reign !
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/5003964.stm
95. Jack, he has reached retirement age!
95. Does anyone know how many MPs are 65 and over?
83 - Labour sold the Scottish Parliament to the Scottish people as it suited their short term political interest. The Lib Dems bought in to the plan as it meant they could share power in Scotland. As Scotland moves inexorably to having no economy other than a public sector one the ultimate recipients will be the Conservatives and / or the Scot Nats. The first of those out the traps with a 3% cut in income tax (the maxmum allowed) may (I stress may as unlike some on the site I do not profess omniscience) reap the benefits at the polls. Cameron, from a position of strength in England, will probably allow the scottish conservatives to go their own way at election time - he has nothing to lose in Scotland - witness Dunfermline by election.
96 Andrea. The Bishop of Bermondsey sent a card …. although we’re not sure if it was for birthday or impending retirement and the Tories sent a futurative silver anniversary leadership card….. what can they mean??
You could not make that Hutton story up
63 Andrea, that Torygraph story is very interesting, detailing how David Cameron is lessed than chuffed with the quality of the ‘A-Team’ that Francis Maud has coughed up. Presumably that is why he was busy playing media tart this weekend gate-crashing Beckingham Palace on a red-top sleaze-merchant’s coat-tails? Looking for candidates with a bit more ‘oomph’? A Footballer’s Wife perhaps?
I note too that the Daily Mail says today (so it MUST be true!) that Cameron has abandoned the work ethic. I would be more than interestedv in any evidence that he ever had it? Does his CV include any extensive productive work or enterprise?
Telegraph -”And in a further sign that the leadership is backing away from potential clashes with local parties, the Bromley and Chislehurst association has been told that it does not need to choose from the list for a replacement for Eric Forth, who died last week.
While technically a by-election gives Tory HQ even more power to impose a prospective MP, Mr Cameron’s spokesman indicated that good local candidates would be put forward alongside names from the “A-list”.”
Sorry if this repears earlier posts (have been away in sunny Istanbul) but seems that the A list “Salon des refusee” is fighting back and as Sutton is near Bromley is our own Squadron Leader girding himself for the challenge?
Replacing Forth with someone obsessed with “Europe” as an issue in either direction doesn’t make a lot of sense. Tory foreign-policy strategy (rightly, in my opinion) seems to be to treat the EU as a non-issue since the referendums on the euro or the constitution are never coming anyway.
The sceptics should be content with the Tories’ defection from the EPP and the enthusiasts with Cameron’s evident lack of interest in quitting the EU. By keeping things pragmatic, Cameron also further limits the reasons for an automatic Liberal Democrat refusal to support his minority government in 2009.
UKIP seems to be focusing on Bromley & Chislehurst just because Forth was the MP. But, before him, both Bromley and Chislehurst went for non-sceptical centrists like Harold Macmillan (he of the original membership application), John Hunt and Roger Sims. There seems very little reason to believe “Europe” has any purchase as a vote-winner in London’s suburbs in 2006. UKIP won’t eat into the Lib Dem vote unless they can widen their appeal well beyond Brussels-bashing and I’ll bet they can’t.
98 - Ferry, I’m not sure that members of a public sector economy would be inclined to vote Conservative unless the Conservatives pledged to leave them alone (turkeys voting for christmas etc).
The level of debate here is such that I also can’t see any proposal for tax cuts being greeted by anything other than deafening jeers against ‘heartless Thatcherite cuts’ and so would be political suicide for any party at the moment.
I do suspect that if real reform in this area ever happened, it would need to be pushed through by the SNP …but I don’t think they presently have the support of their MSPs and members (can you really image Alex Salmond advocating a benefits of a low-tax free-market economy?) or courage to do it unless things got really dire.
However, I certainly wouldn’t expect Labour or the Liberals to do anything in this area and why should they? The economy muddles along adequately under the present system and will never be short of funds to keep it going thus. Put simply, the economy functions much like many other Northern European social-democrat economies - we’re not at the top table economically but neither are we rolling about in penury (with the notorious exception of a small number of areas with revoltingly low levels of life-expectancy).
However, this growing impression that we’re just a bunch of feckless freeloaders north of the border is surely one which is of concern to anyone involved in Scottish politics, regardless of party.
104. Tend to agree with that. Once a substantially public sector economy has been created, the entitlement culture that grows up on the back of it can be very difficult to alter, and voting patterns can become dominated by attempts to defend it. Have a look at France or even better Sweden as examples. Able Scots will, as they have in the past, continue to seek ‘the high road to England’ whilst Scotland stagnates.
97. Baskerville, the following MPs were born in 1941 or before:
Dennis Skinner, Brian Iddon, Joe Benton, John Butterfill, Doug Naysmith, Michael Lord, Ben Chapman, Ken Purchase, Des Turner, Richard Taylor, David Winnick, Tom Clarke, Ann Winterton, Geoffrey Robinson, James Cunningham, Gwyneth Dunwoody, Angela Watkinson, Ann Clwyd, Piara Khabra (naturally!), Michael Mates, Alan Keen, Ming Campbell, Rudi Vis, Michael Howard, David Marshall, Peter Viggers, Austin Mitchell, Glenda Jackson, Phill Willis, Jim Dobbin, Frank Dobson, Barry Sheerman, Ann Cryer, John Prescott, Ed O’Hara, Bob Wareing, Peter Tapsell, Kelvin Hopkins, Gerald Kaufman, Stuart Bell, Paul Flynn, Ian Paisley, George Young, Ian Gibson, Michael Meacher, John Horam, Ken Clarke, Alan Haselhurst, Eddy McGrady, Patrick Cormack, Frank Cook, Bill Cash, John Grummer, Bill Etherington, Alan Williams, Anthony Steen, Nicholas Winterton.
i could have missed some, cause I looked at them pretty fast
106. Thanks, Andrea, you really are a star. Have you ever had any job offers from British MPs? If I ever were to get there, I’d sign you up straight away. Wages are poor, though.
104 and 105 - thanks for those posts - maybe the turkeys / christmas argument is correct - that said, every public sector worker might think themselves indispensable and therefore vote for tax cuts - what about if the Conservatives combined it with other populist measures - no Council Tax for over 70’s eg? - i.e. capturing different segments of the vote with a raft of measures.
107 - I think it would be Andrea’s dream job to work for Alan Duncan. He would do it for no pay but all the perks.
I don’t see why the Tories would be getting worked up about the UKIP “threat” in Bromley.
109. And you couldn’t think of a nicer place for a weekend retreat than Rutland.
109/111.
Not job offers, but I once got an invite for a “champagne celebration” …but it was just an MP who doesn’t know how to use the “forward” function when using emails.
109 Are you suggesting, Sophia, that Dinky’s Pinky would be Perky?
Withdraw!
106. What’s all this with MPs’ ages? are you thinking of starting a ‘dead pool’ market on which one will be next to snuff it?
I bet you would get a free gym membership, Andrea, then you could learn even more about politics!
20,22 and 27
My experience on the doorsteps for the LDs is that there is definitely a group of Tory supporters / waverers who are not keen on “Dave”. They are not mainly the traditional reactionaries, but are people concerned with “honesty in politics” and who do not like the triumph of style over substance so reminiscent of Blair. Several have said to me they do prefer the Lib Dem approach to politics. I am not making any claim that this group is huge, but can assure the Tories that in a high pressure byelection it could be important.
116. From my recent experience on the doorstep that’s completely untrue. The only anti-Daves I stumbled across were Daily Mail readers; the 40% achieved in the Locals reflects Cameron’s success.
Cameron has also been pushing his social enterprise agenda recently, winning plaudits in the area for his policies. Funnily enough it’s attracted little media interest though and certain people would rather talk about husky-dogs and then spew out the usual “style over substance” lines.
108 - I think Jack W mentioned on here a while ago that he thought the Scottish Conservatives could only hope to make an advance in Scotland though returning to a paternalist approach.
I seem to recall that this remark elicited shrieks abour benevolent lairds and so forth so I think we can rephrase his reply to say that Scottish Tory policy needs to demonstrate an appreciation of the need for social solidarity for it to become acceptable. (is that a fair assessment of your remarks Jack?)
Goodness knows how this translates into policies though.
Everyone “prefers the Lib Dem approach to politics” just like they prefer peace to war and love to hate.
106. So quite a few then! I hadn’t quite realised just how many were 65+!
O/T; I caught a bit of Dead Ringers last night. A good parody of all three leaders, most funny, bit of Thatcher bashing to boot.
119. Judging by his repeated attacks on the Home Office, I don’t think anyone told Nick Clegg that that is our approach!
119 - Lib Dems: peace not war! love not hate!
NuLab: war is peace! hate is love!
116. The purist piece of spin on the board today!
118. Correct. Jack W’s views are a cosy romantic fantasy with no relevance to today’s changed world and no practical policy implications.
RE 121, Yes, they are a bit 1984. Then there is ignorance is strength.
On the issue of Scotland and the scope for a ‘right wing’ party to be successful…the Scandinavian experience suggests a real (and low) ceiling on the potential support for any such party which focused primarily on economic issues.
Where there has been a breakthrough by the right in Scandinavia, it has been more focused on social issues, most recently immigration. One of the reasons this has worked is because immigrants are seen as a threat to the sustainability of the welfare system, so the anti-immigrant campaigning goes very much with the grain of these societies, not against it.
Unfortunately, there is of course no immigration problem to speak of in Scotland…quite the opposite in fact. Travel back in time to when Irish immigration was a problem and this ‘Orange’ factor did indeed help the Scots Tories/Unionists a good deal - but it has long since faded and it is difficult to see what is going to replace it. My reckoning is 20-22% is the absolute tops in vote share for the Tories in Scotland for the foreseeable future.
16 I think many people have seen enough of the lib dem approach - for a long time they have done well on the nice - caring honest image - but their ruthless campaigning tricks - distorted data and facts and different message depending on the audience - has now been exposed in a great many areas - many voters now have a quite different imgage of them - and the more hostie views frequently come from those who used to support them - the flow is not towards them now but away -I think the high water mark has been reached - the cycle may be at a different stage in different parts of the country - but in areas where the lib dems have been strong for the last 6- 9 years i think this trend is most advanced
122 - I really do think that it necessary to demonstrate some form of social solidarity for a party to prosper in Scotland - otherwise you stand accused of being anti-Scottish, anti-working class, anti-fluffy bunnies etc - the point being that you are favouring a (usually unworth) minority, not the whole.
This does not mean a widespread hankering among the 5 million or so of us north of the border to join the Wester Ross People’s Socialist Crofting Collective but it does mean that policies that are perceived as ‘devil take the hindmost’ will not get a look-in (even if many of the current Executive policies achieve just that deleterious effect).
124 - I would unfortunately have to agree with you in your assessment of the share of the vote.
Just how committed are Scottish conservatives (with a small “c”) to the Scottish Conservative Party? If the brand is fatally flawed, might they not colonise another party instead? If the economic liberals are in the ascendant in the Lib Dems, or if the rural “Tartan Tories” get to monopolise the SNP, maybe one of those parties will come to represent right wing politics North of the Border.
126. But what does that mean? pledging to reopen Ravenscraig and the coal mines? Obviously I am being facetious but as you yourself noted earlier, it is hard to see how ’social solidarity’ can be embodied in practical policy proposals - especially in a way that would be distinct from those of Scotland’s three other large left wing parties.
124. Agree,
However Scotland is beginning to suffer from the effects from third world immigration. I think the Scottish Tories should play the Nationalist card a bit more i.e. more powers for Scottish Parliament, etc. It is really sad that our neighbours have been brainwashed by Socialism and Labour programming for so long - they need to break free from it, but gradually. Perhaps the SNP’s answer, ‘Independence within Europe’ is the best solution. We need our neighbours to become economically strong again, and this will ultimately improve Anglo-Scottish relations.
England needs to shake off the yolk of Labour’s, ‘New unionism’ where Scotland and Wales are dependent on handouts from England. Spending per head of the English population needs to equal that given to Scotland. Labour’s devolution settlement has therefore been bad for everyone. It’s time for the UK to split up and each country become friends again.
Why not just pass legislation disenfranchising the Scots, and governing the country from Westminster?
O/T, but I don’t think “Merlin” and his friends are terribly appealing.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2006230410,00.html
130 - why leave it at the Scots, there are loads of people that could be disenfranchised for the better good; stupid people (i.e. those that don’t agree with me)and ugly people (according to me) are a good place to start. As ever, Sean’s analysis is spot on.
129. Er…Francis when was the wonderful pacific period, before the Union of 1707, when Scotland and England were ‘friends’? apart from a brief rapprochment during the Reformation, the two countries were almost constantly at loggerheads from the tenth century onwards - and this didn’t cease entirely until after the failed rebellion of 1745.
I think the only obvious answer to this terrible threat is for Rockall to be given immediate full devolution, with Francis to be appointed resident Commisar!
129. Francis writes ‘We need our neighbours to become economically strong again’ referring to the Scots. Francis didn’t you know that it is ‘Scotland’s oil’, at least what is left of it.
This will be followed by Scotland’s water, Scotland’s Hydro Power, and Scotland ‘dump a few nuclear power station there’
There is, for a centre right party an inherent difficulty in fighting an election within a country dominated by the public sector. Having said that it is not impossible and the level of defeatism within some parts of the party is disappointing. We have had a mini comeback in the South of the country – we have greatly increased our number of councillors, we have two constituencies at Holyrood (and hope to add at least a third next time round) and an MP. This has been achieved largely through hard work at the grass roots level which has slowly filtered upwards. Of course we are helped by having the three largest constituency parties in Scotland which helps in terms of activists and finances.
I do get the feeling that some people expect to be dragged along by the party down south but we have to get out of this mindset and do what the Liberals did when they were reduced to one Scottish seat and that is to rebuild the party from the ground up.
Incidentally I agree with one of the posters above who suggested a reduction of 3% in income tax and I would be surprised if the 2007 manifesto was not a tax-cutting one.
I think that proportion of Scots who want tax cuts, and support economic liberalism, must certainly be greater than the 16% or so who currently vote Conservative, Max. I think there’s nothing to be lost by going all-out for tax cuts at the next election, even if they only appeal to 25% or so of the voters.
But Dave is promising NOT to cut taxes!
29 - francis - that post is hysterical.
Honestly, you people think you are dead clever but reading the tosh you come out with when you should be working is priceless!
gwynfa at 24: Welcome to the site - I don’t think you’ve posted before? You’re right that I had no connection with Nottingham before I was selected in 1995: I’ve never pretended otherwise. However, the post at 3 isn’t about me, but incumbency generally.
Who benefits from incumbency? I suspect it depends more on recent activity level than years in the area - not least because the local electorate itself changes by 5% a year, so in most seats probably only a minority have lived there for 20 years. There’s some past evidence by Butler & King that it peaks after the first re-election (as people change their view from “he’s still fresh and doing a good job” to “oh him again”) but remains positive compared with new candidates. Not seen any recent research on this, though - maybe Andrea would like to do some samples…
138 - there’s nothing to prevent the Scottish Tories from promising a reduction.
Nick P. @ 40 - a turnover of the local electorate of just 5% per annum strikes me as a bit low; are you sure?
141 - Especially as they have no chance of achieving power to implement their manifesto - A charge often laid against the Lib Dems LOL
76 / 79 Re Haringey: I hear that Labour leader Charles Adje has just been deposed in a coup and replaced by two-times former leader Cllr George Meehan.
This is a bit like if the national party in 1992 had got rid of Kinnock and reinstated Michael Foot
If the Scottish Tories could reach 25%, they might very easily enter the governing coalition.
145 - But would any other party want to enter a government coalition with them with such a wildly differing policy ?
118 Stephen B. Partly correct. And precious little to do with lairds any longer. We may enhance our communities at the margin, but the impact of us lairds is diminishing even in the rural strongholds and of course in many parts of Scotland is of historic interest only.
We’ve discussed the demise of the Scottish tories several times, but perhaps their future deserves some comment.
IHO the scope for a right wing Conservative party has been enhanced by the introduction of PR. However is it possible it could move out of the 10%-15% box ? I think not. The present big tent Scottish Tories box of 15%-20% also looks pretty set, hampered as they are by the mismangamemts and disasters of the 80′ and 90’s.
The presence of the SNP and a resurgent Scottish Liberal Democrat leaves little scope presently for the Scottish Tories to break out. Hovever there is little purpose in the Scottish Tories wallowing in self pity or as too often has happened recrimination.
Nothing short of a root and branch reform of the party and Scottish policies is necessary …… perhaps starting with the name/brand :
Scottish Conservative Democrats - SCD. or
Conservative Democrats of Scotland - CDS.
Conservatives for Scotland - CfS.
Scotland First.
Scottish Conservative Jacobites.
RE: 138, Icarus, Dave said he would not put tax cuts before economic stability.
Is there any party any where ever that would put tax cuts before economic stability?
It does not mean there will be no tax cuts.
The only real chance for a ‘right wing’ party to get control in Scotland again would be after independence - which would surely lead to a period of protracted economic decline as Scotland became a high-tax backwater under the control of its current political establishment.
But the change might be a long time coming. The example of the Irish Free State from the 1930s-1980s is probably not a bad one, I think. Decades of relative economic decline and emigration under an inward looking political regime, halted only by a marked shift to liberal economic policies in the 1990s. Would fifty years be long enough for the Scots to realise welfarism and dependency are the road to disaster? Maybe…
147. Thank you Jack W for confirming that your previous analysis of the decline and fall of the Scots Tories is indeed, as I have repeatedly said, completely irrelevant for their future.
[131] I don’t intend to expand on this remark, but I do know that that kind of activity isn’t the monopoly of any one political party. And no, it’s not personal experience - I don’t have the necessary, er, gravitas…
[144] Dear old George, I wonder if he’s still doing that speech about having to go to school barefoot…
[149] As to Ireland, of course Garret FitzGerald’s negotiating their accession to the E.U. in French personally had no impact on their economy whatsoever. Only an elderly public-sector-addict could think otherwise, eh, NC?
137 - I agree Sean. Personally I think the best way forward is to differentiate ourselves from the center-left block of Libs/Lab/SNP.
I believe the party was considering a number of tax reductions including council and business as well as income tax. Given the very high levels of public spending - and the fact the executive frequently underspends its budget - there is significant room for savings.
150 Notts County. Of cousre the reasons for the demise of the Scottish Conservative are relevant to the future. If you don’t understand the past you’ve no chance of shaping the future !!
140/142 - Doesn’t strike me as that low depending on the seat. I would not expect to see it in London or areas with any serious student population but in medium sized provincial towns, not that many people move other than within the constituency.
I don’t think it shows as Nick says that a minority of people stay in a seat for less than twenty years though (although that may be the case). If you take a small university city (Exeter or Durham for example), turnover may be higher than average because of students but actually that may mask the fact that a majority stick around for much longer. Equally a relatively low turnover may mask a population where few people hang around for twenty years (perhaps an elderly area where the grim reaper slowly but surely gets round to people over a couple of decades or an area with lots of family homes but little retirement property).
“CAN JOHNSON PULL A RABBIT OUT OF THE HAT ON THE EDUCATON BILL?”
- No.
116 - The Lib Dem approach to ‘honesty in politics’? Really. Does this include the bar-charts, the ’say one thing in Scotland and another in Somerset’ approach, the Rennard tactic of ’stirring endlessly’. How nauseating, Tim. I earnestly hope you didn’t mean that to be taken seriously.
Congratulations to Minger on his 65th as well. The old boy doesn’t look a day over 80.
Also amused by all this Lib Dem flight of fancy over the Bromley by-election. It gives a whole new meaning to the term ‘idealism’.
155,
He does`nt need too.
155. I agree. Large rebellion, legislation only passed with Tory support; embarrassing and dangerous. Makes the government look weak and divided, Cameron look like he holds all the cards, and the LDs look like the proper home for CL voters.
156 AHM. Now now Alastair … you’re out of your coffin a little early tonight !
Say after me a dozen times :
The House of Lords must be abolished …………….. uncross your fingers Alastair !!
156. Ageist AHM? One would hope not! That would be a sizeable chunk of Tory support offended!
Though wise words re; Bromley. Please, fellow liberals, lets not have another good result look poor because we have over-ramped it…
140-
Nick, the first incumbency effect still seems to have benefited MPs (who gained the seat from an opponent in 2001) last year too. Almost all increased their majorities (except Green, Flook and Doughty). I haven’t looked at first incumbent MPs in seats already previously held by their party. I could look at them later.
156 - Tim was only making the point that some people say to him they think the Lib Dems are more honest, unspun etc. According to you, those people are delusional. That’s as maybe. The fact is that they exist and that is all Tim claimed.
I quite enjoyed your juxtaposition of your complaining about the Lib Dems stirring constantly and then your comment on Campbell. You are a sly rogue, AHM!
Although I think you are right on Bromley, Sean Fear made some wise points on this on an earlier thread. It is your contest to lose but complacency or a cavalier candidate selection could lead to a “majority slashed” story or worse. But avoid those and you’re fine - the Lib Dems have a good by-election operations but Rennard doesn’t walk on water.
62 (I should add that he probably floats quite effectively on water though).
I did hear a rumour that the “stir shamelessly” handbook had been photocopied and passed round at Tory conferences. Perhaps this is why they’re so keen on Lib Dem defectors - they need to get hold of the new edition.
Augustus Carp at 42: I know that turnover varies hugely by seat - somewhere with a big student population will be much higher than 5%, and probably somewhere in rural Yorkshire it’s less. IIRC 5% is the right figure for Broxtowe, and it feels about right - if I canvass a street that we’ve not done for a few years, we find a new family in every 4-5 houses. This obviously reduces the incumbency factor, though also the significance of how long the MP has been there.
159 - Didn’t take as long to pry the lid off this evening, Jack. Mrs Matlock is clearly slipping…..
160 - I turned 70 in January, Tistoph. I think even the most cunning Lib Dem spinners would find it difficult making a charge of ‘ageism’ stick to me
162 - I wasn’t spinning at all, James. My birthday wishes to Ming were heartfelt I assure you!!
164 - Just a bit of ‘opposition research’, Philip
75. Why does everyone get so touchy about mentioning things. There’s obviously going to be a bye-election and not talking about it isn’t going to make things any better for Mr Forth’s family and friends.
166 - And Ming says thanks for the cake by the way. But next time could you send one with soft icing? He finds the hard stuff tough going with his dentures apparently.
169 -
So noted!
Mr Palmer, I would be grateful if you would answer my post on 62, regarding a copy of the Hutton Report being auctioned off with Cherie Blair’s autograph to raise money for the Labour Party. This report was about the circumstances surrounding the death of a scientist.
When are you going to speak out and make a stand against such sleaze among your colleagues? Otherwise you become complicit through your silence. It is relevant when you say you are disappointed at the lack of trust in politicians.
Bromly is a cast iron large win for the Conservatives, what is all the fuss about
172 david(s). There’s always a few shillings to be made once a market opens.
And neither should any party take the voters for granted, even in seemingly safe seats !
166. Point taken…though I am sure some LDs on here could manage it!
Tell me, do you take up your annual Winter Champagne allowance from our friend Gordon? £200 is it not? Thats not a bad case. Not that I would know…impoverished student and all.
169. He clearly has his own set of teeth, no set of dentures would look that bad!
135 Bryan McGrath,
Oil revenues generate a measly £2BN a year (not all of it is Scottish!). England pumps £10BN a year into Scotland to keep the SNP down. Thanks a lot Barnett formulae. Bryan what do you say about the Barnett Formulae or have you conveniently forgot about it? Please check your facts.
Maude said they won’t impose “mincing metrosexuals” in Bromley:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/conservatives/story/0,,1780736,00.html
175. Where did you get the “measly” figure of 2bn in oil revenue?
Spot the difference.
Orpington 1959: Con 24,303 Lab 9,543 Lib 9,092
Bromley & Chis 2005: Con 23,583 Lab 10,241, LD 9,368
178. the liberal won the byelection in 1962.
174 - I accept it readily, Tistoph. And the Treasurer of my local Conservative Association is very pleased to receive it from me in turn.
I would thank Gordo for it, but considering it’s our money anyway…. besides, he’s cancelled the £200 council tax rebate this year (as we are not having an election), so I’m only just breaking even
179 - I think that’s his point, Andrea. It’s that flight of fancy I talked about earlier….
176. wait, Bromley can still get a “mincing metrosexual”….it’s not a Northern marginal afterall!
Will the Lib Dems win B&C - No
Would they have won it in 2000 - Very possibly, almost quite likely.
What’s the difference? In a word - Dave. People will be glad of the opportunity to vote for him, without having to vote for a Conservative government. Clearly the Libs should target the seat hard - make it a clear Lib / Tory fight, and do enough to relegate Labour to a very poor third, and be within 10% of the Tory.
Time for everyone to put their money where their mouths are . Betfair have just opened a market on B/C byelection .
183 - I don’t think there is any question the Lib Dems will come second, but **provided the Conservatives take the by-election seriously** (and I am sure they will) neither do I see the Lib Dems running the Tories close either. I think the Con vote share will be in excess of 50% and could well be higher than the 2005 result on the back of a sympathy vote for Eric Forth.
184 - Thanks Mark - will have to wait a few days to get any liquidity I’d have thought, but worth looking at what happens and potentially taking someones money.
Also - do we have a date for the Bleanau Gwent byelections?
186. Lennon, the Assembly byelection will take place on June 29th.
I suppose the Westminster one will be placed in the same day…it would be pretty stupid to send them to vote on another day too.
131. No, Sean, he’s not appealing at all!
180. Good, good! My Dad was most pleased when he learnt he would be receiving support from HM Treasury in his campaign to fill his wine chiller, after turning 60 this year.
As for the council tax rebate, its a clear argument for PR. We might have so many unstable governments that you would get the rebate every year, perhaps even twice sometimes!
The govenment really should be looking at how to deal with this resentment of taxation. Perhaps if Gordon let every tax payer know exactly how their money was being spent? Rather like those charity donations where you can buy a chicken, a goat, or a school or whatever.
(Sorry revision avoidance exercises)
179, 181. btw I’m not a Lib Dem, I just think this by-election is not quite a foregone conclusion, although the Conservatives start as firm favourites.
Orpington and Bromley are very similar demographically, so why do the Lib Dems regularly poll around 40% in Orpington and 20% in Bromley?
187 - Thanks Andrea - I’m sure they’ll put the Westminster election on the same day if they can.
140, 171 — Excellent post, Printz.
Yes, Nick, I do rarely post, but your homily on trust — while seemingly ignoring the fact that you have been a cheerleader for a mendacious government — was exceptionally annoying.
189 - I am not familiar with the demographics of the area, but the Lib Dems did fall back rather significantly in Orpington last year.
192. They were down from 43.3% to 39.8%. Overall the 1997-2005 swing from LD to Con is 2%, so not quite as dramatic as some have suggested though obviously this has to be seen in the context of the Lib Dems doing relatively better than the Conservatives in national vote share.
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,1779848,00.html
193 - It should also be borne in mind that the Conservatives performed very well in Bromley at the local elections just three weeks ago. The stars are simply not aligned for a Lib Dem shocker here.
175: Oil revenues will be something like £7 billion for this past year.
194. Interesting piece. I have a lot of sympathy for “Ben”, although I think the argument is slightly overemphasised. Certainly in the LT, the costs of keeping the elderly are going to rise, question is how to meet those costs?
I do know a lot of people who don’t have much choice apart from go home and earn some money for a while after they graduate, there is no way they could live away from home, clear their debts and save money.
I imagine the difference between Orpington and B & C is mainly down to history.
If the Conservatives fight the seat properly, and neither CCHQ nor the local party pick a fight over candidate selection, then I’d expect an outcome like Con 50% to Lib Dem 35%.
O/T Wholesale outrage expressed on Iain Dale’s blog today re auctioning at Labour fundraiser of Hutton Report signed by Cherie Blair, what are the views here?
199 - It’s totally repulsive, but hardly surprising considering the people involved.
185 I generally agree, except for the sympathy part. I am quite shocked sometimes that the electorate doesn’t do this. Romsey springs to mind and more surprising Eastbourne. After the IRA assassinated Ian Gow I thought large number of the electorate would back the Conservatives candidate regardless of their politcal opinion and send a message to the IRA - but they didn’t.
201 - I expect a lot of people think ‘I wont change my mind just cos it’s the IRA, but will vote as if it were a normal by-election - anything else will mean that in some way they have won’
201 - Perhaps you are right. I suppose it’s only Lib Dems (like Patsy Calton in Cheadle) who get a sympathy vote.
203. Alastair, are you trying to suggest you lost because of sympathy for Calton and not because your campaign was, uhm, well, not deserving of a win?
201 - I admit, Eastbourne was a surprise.
200 - They are revolting aren’t they? Completely venial, and totally self-righteous at the same time.
204 - I would never be so ungracious, Andrea.
But I was also at Romsey in 2000. Michael Colvin was a personal friend of mine. I am very familiar with the vulture tendency that exists within the Liberal Democrats when these by-elections arise, except of course, when it is one of their own - and then a separate set of rules seem to apply.
re the sympathy vote.
I got the impression parties sometimes try to appeal to sympathy vote in byelections when they’re in troubles.
For ex in the last days of Labour Dunfermline campaign (which were more like “the last days of Pompei”), Labour tried to use the sympathy factor and asked voters to vote Labour in honour of Rachel Squire.
205 - Eastbourne was certainly shocking.
You are absolutely correct on the other point as well, Sean. In their minds they can do no wrong. I think this was wonderfully symbolised a few weeks ago when Cherie took it upon herself to wear white in the presence of the Pope. The nerve of these people is something to behold.
208 - I find it hard to understand the philosophy of a “Catholic” who gets Carole Caplin to contact the dead on her behalf and spends an hour screaming in a Mayan birthing pool.
189-Kevin L
‘Orpington and Bromley are very similar demographically, so why do the Lib Dems regularly poll around 40% in Orpington and 20% in Bromley? ‘
There is a lot more social housing in the Orpington area compared with Bromley.
The demise of the Lib Dems in Bromley has been fairly rapid from running the council briefly for 3 years with Labour 1997-2000 to this months LE’s where they were reduced to around 7 seats out of 60 on the council (49 seats are currently held by the Tories).
198, the 50%:35% ratio sounds good sense, Sean F, but if these were absolute figures that would suggest a real collapse for Labour. I would expect that ‘Others’ might reach 10% in a lone by-election and in the current ‘plague on..” climate. Could Labour lose their deposit, or come fourth or fifth? Not quite, perhaps?
For the same reason, I think AHM may be a little optimistic with his over 50%, or over last time’s 51.1% - that would be an excellent result - but wouldn’t rule it out. The comparisons with Orpington are very interesting, but of course then it was a long term Conservative government which was rattling and throeing, and wielding long knives.
199-bigbucksbetty
‘O/T Wholesale outrage expressed on Iain Dale’s blog today re auctioning at Labour fundraiser of Hutton Report signed by Cherie Blair, what are the views here?’
What do you expect from these scumbags,probably Cherie Blair charged a fee for signing the book as she’s permaneantly got her snout in the trough.
08.
They should take the advice of the Rev Ian Paisley who has turned down the chance to be NI , first Minister.
Also I believe in the EU parliament, called the Pope the anti christ.
Nothing like straight talking.
210 - My copy of the Waller and Criddle’s guide (admittedly this is 1999 so a bit old - 1991 census rather than 2001) reckons they are pretty similar.
Bromley/Orpington
Owner occupied 78.0%/81.1%
Local authority housing 10.1%/11.9%
Non-white 4.6%/2.7%
Professional/managerial 44.3%/38.4%
Non-manual 73.8%/69.5%
I wouldn’t read anything into it though. There are “posher” Lib Dem (and Labour) seats such as Cheadle and Solihull (which “will certainly remain one of the most trenchant Tory seats in Britain” by the way). The question is whether the Tories are sufficiently entrenched locally after years of decent election results there and the climate is good enough for them nationally - the answer is probably yes.
210, the demographics of Orpington and Bromley/Chislehurst.
A lot more social housing in Orpington?
As it happens, I have this day printed off most of the drafts of some of the demographic stats for the 8th edition of The Almanac of British Politics:
(2001 census)Soc renters B&C: 13.2% Orpington: 13.6%,
In case people are interested in some others:
% professional/managerial: B&C 35.6, Orp 29.4
% non-white: B&C 7.8, Orp 4.8
% av weekly disposable income: B&C 532, Orp 509
av property value 2006: B&C 278K, Orp 264K
% increase property value 2003-6: B&C 6.1, Orp 15.9
% urban intelligence (Experian category): B&C 11.8, Orp 1.6
% unemployed 2006: B&C 2.8, Orp 2.7
% long-term ill: B&C 15.2, Orp 15.6
% pensioners: B&C 20.4, Orp 20.3
I suppose “Others” could rise, but I also believe that, in this part of London, the wind is in the blue sails, and UKIP or the BNP are unlikely to make inroads into the Tory vote unless a specific issue arises in the campaign to boost them. There should be, given the right campaign and the right candidate, a Conservative vote in the 51-55% range.
211 - Ah, and there is the man himself! Sorry about quoting Solihull! One of the pleasures of your excellent book is digging out the few examples where you got it wrong!
209 - Hear, Hear.
213 - Ian Paisley is hardly a model foe civilised discourse, dez. I have very little time for the man.
215. OT for Robert Waller, I was told (here) that in your Almanac of British Politics (4th edition, I think) there’s the whole list of how Labour MPs voted in 1994 leadership contest. I can’t get your almanac here, so do you know another source where I can find the list?
217, James, thanks for the mention - beat me by one minute.
By the way, there hasn’t been a prof/man flight from outer SE London, the basis for calculation has changed.
On the Solihull prediction, you should have bought the 7th edition as well as the 6th!
No, only joking. I don’t claim omniscience about the future, election nights would be so much less exciting! I didn’t say a Tory hold would be certain in the last edition, but the result was the one on the night of 2005 which really took me by surprise, just didn’t see it coming at all. I even thought it might be one of those odd rogue reports, like the Lib Dems claiming they had taken Birmingham Perry Barr!
218,
True, believe the Rev also called John Major a bloody liar, and was thrown out of the cabinet, room then locked himself in the nearby toilet.
Think it was the shortest meeting on NI Troubles ever.
You need a lot of patience in trying to reconcile both sections of the divide.
The past two administrations, have to be applauded in this respect.
219, Andrea, that would be the 5th ed (1995).
People (ie MPs) are Byron Criddle’s area. If you e mail me on
robert@wallerballiol.freeserve.co.uk
I could give you Byron’s address, plus my own regular e mail.
Can’t promise full results on the 1994 leadership election from him after all this time, though. If you have any individuals you are particularly interested in, could manage that myself.
215. Thanks Robert, I think that supports my point that they are demographically similar. Orpington was more homogeneously middle-class between 1955 and 1983 when the Cray twins (Ss. Paul and Mary) were in Chislehurst. Hard to imagine now that Chislehurst elected a Labour MP in 1966, even after taking into consideration the more favourable boundaries.
218 & 221. Gerry Adams is not exactly a ‘model for civilised discourse’ either. Unfortunately, thanks to this government, the only people that can now be talked to are the extremists, as moderates of all stripes have become marginalised and discredited within their communities.
224 - I certainly don’t consider him to be so either. I hope I wasn’t giving the opposite impression by omitting him from my earlier remarks.
209. Sean - it’s a good job the inquisition aren’t still around, that’s for certain.
223, Yes, Kevin, the demographic similarities are striking. The power of byelections (and their aftermath - Lubbock held on till 1970) to have a lasting effect - makes for some welcome variation in electoral patterns. One wonders if the odd result in Ryedale 2005 (worst Lib Dem change in share anywhere, best for Labour except for the dodgy notional in Dumfries and Galloway) may be at least partly due to the unwind from the 1986 byelection).
Chislehurst 1966 - also agreed, though it did of course include parts of the current borough of Bexley too - it consisted of Chislehurst & Sidcup Urban District.
O/T - Anyone know if the ICM-Guardian poll is coming out tonight?
218 & 221
A lot of people even on his own side don’t like him either but at this moment and time his party are playing a blinder politically, possibly despite the man..
Matlock, I’m sure you’d happily have killers released on the street and allowed to stick their chests out, control their areas and allow many attempts made to emasculate the police force? For all Paisley is a bit of an odd case, he’s odd rather than evil, and he stuck his neck out and said no to the above while saps like me agreed to it and are paying for it now.
I suspect his party’s less firebrand figures have spoken to Gordon’s mates about the possibility of delivering a new devolved set up under his watch and not Blair’s. The DUP are politically to the left on social issues as well.
If there is one thing I do hold against Tony its the fact that the country from whence I came has become his vanity legacy project and I could smack him for it. This is the man who ignored constitutional nationalist opinion because ‘they have guns and you don’t’ (a pretty rough translation of a Blair statement). He’s long given up caring about an equitable agreement and threatening to ignore the majority will of the people involved, all so he can feel like a peacemaker amd get his baubles.
I’m sure the English sleep safe in their beds confident that such a leader will keep them secure……
229, I’m sure Alistair shares a lot of your unhappiness with the “peace process.” One can still be a critic of Paisley (I suppose I have mixed feelings about him) and object to much of what the Government has done in Northern Ireland.
229 - I beg your pardon?
230 Sean. And John Major’s Conservative Government role in the process ??
230 - Thank you, Sean. My comments on Paisley were by no means an endorsement of the government’s shoddy handling of the entire process, and only a fool would assume they were.
231. No, go away and don’t be back until Saturday
232 - You sound like Tony Blair, Jack. Check your calendar, old boy - this lot have been in power for 9 years. Blaming the previous administration is wearing rather thin….
234 Andrea. Don’t be so uninformed Andrea !!
234 - Ah ha! Trying to get rid of me are you!!??
236. well, Jack, you caught me, there’s a chance he’ll be back on friday
237. AHM, yes, and to replace you too
235 AHM. Now look here Ali …. I’m a straight sort of guy … right .. yeah.
………………………………………….
I’m not talking blame, but the precursor to the peace process as we see it today was the work correctly undertaken by the Major government, fully suupported as it was by the leadership of the Labour and Lib Dems.
Historically the Tories have routinely spoken to the IRA/Sinn Fein, starting with Willie Whitelaw in the early seventies.
238 - Good to know you’re getting the word out, Andrea. You can be my press secretary.
240. Alastair, will you pay me? A Lord needs a first class office!
219, 222. I have to confess that it was I who piqued Andrea’s interest in the 1994 Labour MPs leadership votes. Rather than divert Robert and Byron from the eagerly awaited next edition of the Almanac, I can transcribe the list and e-mail it to Andrea if he gives me his address.
btw, almost all the MPs who voted Prescott for leader in 1994 have since retired. Jack Straw was the only one to abstain on the Deputy vote, and Terry Patchett spoilt his vote.
241 - Naturally! I want to have a good operation in place in time to take over as Leader of the Government in the Lords after the next election.
241 Andrea. Only in kind ….
Free membership of the Beaconsfield Conservative Ladies Knitting Circle (Laptop Dancing Section)
242. I see I managed to disturb lots of people with my last “obsession”!
My email address is anpa82@inwind.it (lots of spam tonight!), but if it takes you too much troubles and/or times, no problems, I think I could survive (but I wouldn’t assure I won’t post Helen Clark’s photos to compensate it!).
239. ‘routine’ it was not. The Heath government was clueless about how to deal with the massive upsurge in violence and organised talks with the IRA leaders out of desperation. The IRA leadership realised that, and of course were not interested in any kind of serious negotiation as a result - they had learnt that violence got results.
30 years later and now even the veiled threat of violence works.
246 Notts Co. As someone who spent much of my military career involved in the Ulster problem, including almost 3 years in the province on “Special Security Duties” I assure you that contact with IRA/Sinn Fein and the Tories was “routine” both direct and through intermediates.
Whether such contact was of merit tactically or strategically is another matter.
247. Aha another ‘insider scoop’ I see…I prefer not to talk about my secret service career myself.
I think Louise Bagshawe did well on Newsnight against that dreadfully patronising author.
248 Notts County. You also seem unable to debate the issue. As for my service in NI, it’s common knowledge on the site and not “secret”.
246,
Jack, has not always been the case with all british governments back to Michael Collins in the 1920`s.
Channels were there for negotiation.
Jack, do you think that anyone higher up than Donaldson or Scapaticci will be exposed?
251 dez. Broadly yes. However the involvement of Tories with IRA/Sinn Fein has always been more sensitive, the more so when the “security situation” was at red. Often Labour oppostion leaders were advised on Privy Council terms and supported the Tories.
252 Kevin L. I wouldn’t want to put the evil eye on any “participant” of the troubles.
History will be the judge of the many sorry events in Ulsters history …… but then usually the victors write the history books. But who are the victors ??
AH Matlock, did you get my emails? Only I have not had a reply…
Kind regards
Benedict White
254 - Benedict. Yes, I have received your messages. Forgive me for not responding in a more timely fashion, but I will do so now.
Another evening for playing the man, not the issue. Congratulations to Nick Palmer and Alastair Matlock for polite responses to offensive comments.
As this thread has migrated back to B&C (and Ming) and as I share a birthday with the Leader of the Lib Dems I thought I’d have my tuppenceworth. All I’d say is that Ming has slapped down Simon Hughes (deservedly) and that the Tory complacency over B&C is staggering. No seat is safe in a by-election and while the Tories are rightly extreme favourites - talking up UKIP is bizarre. Do they understand by-elections (and I exclude Sean Fear from this question - who clearly does)?
256 - Men can hide behind issues, like snakes hiding in the grass. Some of us wait for those that hide to show themselves.
258 Printz. Time for that dark room Printz …. before a deadly snake bites you on your arse !
221 and 224. I might have missed something in the Act which prevents it, but if Adams and Paisley can’t get their act together what’s to stop SF and the UUP or DUP and SDLP forming an administration in Northern Ireland if either of those two combinations can get a majority in the Assembly?
257 - Many happy returns, Dan. I’m not sure what exactly the rest of us have said to give you the impression of complacency on Bromley - I have said repeatedly that it should be an easy Tory hold, provided the by-election is taken seriously and properly fought. Some Lib Dems on the board such as david(s) have been more vocal in saying that it is a Tory lock.
Surely you would agree that, taking into account the history of the constituency, the current national political climate, and the recent local election results in the area, it is exceedingly difficult to imagine the Lib Dems pulling one of their by-election surprises here? Thus far I don’t believe one of your comrades has dissented from this.
Thanks for the congrats AH - I agree with everything you say - and I’m not one of the Lib Dems who think this is a possible win.
But then Luke M hasn’t posted for a few days!
260. Chris, what stops this coalition is the absurd rule that has politicians having to designate as unionist or nationalists thereby cementing the problem, not solving it. In short anything of any significance needs a support of the majority of the nationlsit representatives and the majority of the unionist representatives as designated. Fat chance….All it should really needs is a say 66-70% vote in favour, thus demanding a strong vote from both sides of the community fence to get issues of signifcance through the devolved assembly when it starts up again (and it will).
A second issue is that one side is essentially fighting a battle of elimination and the other essentially for its survival, its not the best atmosphere.
Finally, the main aim of any coalition exercise would be largely to cut out Sinn Fein and the SDLP won’t do that, they will not cut them out. It’s their own people, however unpleasant to them. Sad part of our history that your ‘own’ violent faction are somehow less culpable than the other sides violent faction but thats how it goes in that part fo the world.
To confirm Jack W’s comments earlier contacts were always held at various levels between government and terrorists (14th Int Jack? poor lad….). What changed things was that the Provos were brought pretty much to a stalemate in what I have to say was one of the most successful counter insurgency operations ever, given the limitations that were necessary for the forces of the state to operate under and the nature of the conflict. Some within the Provo leadership relaised it and moved them on to the political process, they were getting nowhere fast. In short they were losing.
The problem is not that there was a process, not whether it was Tory or Labour who started it, the problem is that its now been subject to side deals and, as pointed out by another poster the vague whiff of a threat of violence has the PM crapping himself, an extraordinary situation. The goal of a peaceful society where law and order is essentially maintained as we know it and doifferences are sorted out in the chamber not the streets is being substituted by Blair’s wish for a bit of history, thats the problem right now. Sinn Fein know this and they will mainpulate it nicely, just as the DUP are planning to outwait Blair and see him out. For the average Joe in the North who just wants to get in his life in a bit of peace, he’s rightly screwed thanks to its mishandling.
Matlock @ 231, my point that brought ‘your pardon me’ reponse was designed to point out the great irony in views from mainland UK to the situation in Northern Ireland. I’ve never liked Paisley but he is universially demonised as some fat old yesterday man with a religious hate streak. On the other hand killers on both sides don’t seem to be subject to anything like that demonisation despite the fact they happily blew people up in their beds, shot up bars full of punters and so forth. While I understand it’s an instinctive reaction of people to dislike the man and basically stop at that point, I’m suggesting you look again based on the following, whether you like him personally or not.
You would not vote in favour of what happened here if it was your own town (as pointed out in my original post) and thats what he also went against. He stuck out against the Good Friday Agreement and was ridicluled as dinosaur, I voted for it but he was right, people were sold a pup.
That was long, last thing I wrote that was that long was an answer on my GCSE to a question about Jude the Obscure….
Hi,folks ,hope you’re all well.As someone who is one-eighth Irish,and a Catholic,I celebrate that
(a)Mainland violence has stopped since 1996
(b)Huge strides have been taken to resolving a situation that has rankled for centuries
(c)I feel the Protestant side has been pandered to;their UVF paramilataries still exist-to be fair,it’s unjust that any Catholic with natinalistic views is automatically demonised
(d)(And I know this will be controversial)Wahtever schoolboy jibe is thrown at the IRA?Irish Republican Army;their mainland campaign only started after Bloody Sunday,when 13 young men were shot dead for..not being good little boys and doing what they weretold i.e be quiet and submit to colonial fascism-I know this site has its ‘let’s wallow in the colonial days of the early 20th century,and anyone can call me what they like;I’ll take it as a mark of their own stupidity.O.K ,rant over,have a fun night,folks!
Thanks, pob. I don’t generally reply to printz - only leads to more abuse.
I’ve never heard TB describe anything as his legacy (it’s a media hook on which to hang stories), but despite the comments above I suspect that Northern Ireland may eventually be seen as one of the most durable successes of the last 12 years (including Major). We’ve migrated from a centuries-old intermittent civil war on UK soil to a peevish peace in which people argue about coalitions. The reason why it’s potentially working out (and I agree it’s too soon to be sure) is that it was recognised that to solve a civil war you have to talk to the unreasonable people fighting it, not just the civilised people who wouldn’t dream of killing anyone; also, you have to stop trying to *win* by defeating the other side (they always regroup and start again); also, you have to keep talking when splinter groups let off bombs to try to derail the process.
Yokel won’t agree with any of this (and as a NI resident he’s entitled to claim superior knowledge, though I was on the NI Select Committee and know most of the main figures slightly), but I agree with him about Paisley to some extent - he is a bit strange to the average English ear but he’s not been an apologist for terror - if we ever get to normalisation it needs him on board too, as well as those who *were* apologists.
RE 265, Nick, I note your silenc on the issue of the auctioning of signed coppies of the Hutton report. Will you be commenting at post number 894?
265 - I have never resorted to personal abuse. Yes I have asked Mr Palmer to answer questions without being rude. I note others would like an answer too to a matter I have raised.
How would you describe abuse? Is it asking questions, or is it remaining silent while your colleagues make money for your political party by cashing in on the death of a good man?
Benedict @ 265
Nick Palmer MP is a government supporter and New Labour loyalist. His posts are always welcome reading, and he often offers reasoned justifications of Blair & Co’s policies and actions. Nick has said many times that, because he is who he is, he cannot and will not make public criticisms which could damge his own party.
However, I think it reasonable to assume that he does NOT approve of boosting his party’s funds by auctioning a copy of the Hutton Report signed by Cherie Blair. Or of using honours and seats in the Lords as rewards for political donations. Or letting John Prescott retain his over-generous perks. If he did approve, Nick would reply positively by arguing the merits of these matters.
How the leadership of the Lib Dems and Conservatives must wish all their junior MPs knew the value of sealed lips when indefensible decisions are made by more senior colleagues.
Yet Another David, I had no idea you were spokesman for what Mr Palmer thinks.
Mr Palmer condemns himself through his sychophantic support of whatever seedy business the government gets up to. Even in PMQs he uses the opportunity to only ask sychophantic questions.
His silence on this matter condemns him as the silence of a man who stands by watches his friends hurt other people.
“Because he is who he is” is not an excuse to do nothing about what is clearly wrong and sickening to the rest of us.
Jeremy Corbyn, Labour MP, did not use that excuse. He is an honourable man who saw a reason to stand up and say he disagrees.
But it is absolutely clear to me that unlike Jeremy Corbyn and many others, Mr Palmer puts his loyalties to his party leadership before any principles.
I expect he will claim this is an example of abuse, but I believe it a truth to any decent person that selling an autographed report about the death of a good man in order to raise funds for the Labour Party is sickening.
Mr Palmer should be ashamed of himself.
250 - Your service in Northern Ireland may be “common knowledge” on this site (not that I’d ever heard of it) but then it is also common knowledge that you can, when occasion warrants, be a bit of a fantasist
For someone who likes to spend a lot of time winding people up with cryptic hints and the like from your privileged position as a journalist (with, apparently, one of the best contact books around), it is surprising you always react so strongly when people try to argue with you when you post something seriously.
“Wahtever schoolboy jibe is thrown at the IRA?Irish Republican Army;their mainland campaign only started after Bloody Sunday,when 13 young men were shot dead for..not being good little boys and doing what they weretold ”
Their campaign off the mainland, OTOH, had killed about 200 people by then.
268 — Yes, Nick Palmer does often bring insights to this blog & he is to be welcomed for that reason.
But, I do not buy this argument that he cannot criticise the government because he is a Labour MP … almost every other Labour backbencher has managed to show some signs of independence by now.
Nick diverted the subject of the blog onto trust in politicians.
Isn’t keeping silent “for the good of the party” rather than speaking your mind one of the reasons why politicians are not trusted?
Nick Palmer@265 No one has an issue in talking to those who are involved in violence to bring an end to it BUT, it’s about pandering to it now, thats the problem. Blair has basically made a statement to the SDLP that they don’t have guns so he can ignore their views somewhat more. Thats not going to help. Of course he’s not going to turn around and say he intends this to be his legacy in public, its a sure fire way of ensuring that it won’t be. I also don’t think, even in your most loyal of moments, that he and his staff aren’t thinking legacy. I know there isn’t a politician locally in th North who doesnt think thats what he’s pitching for.
Sean Fear@271, poor Patrick up there is what we call a MOPE, Most Oppressed People Ever, individual. One eighth Irish…ah come on thats stretching it Patrick but bless you anyway.
Anyway this week, the more mundane and yet more exciting, Education Bill’s…have the Tories come out yet and definitively said they’d back it?
Breaking News: MPs Demand apology over Hutton Report Auction:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4488146.stm
At least some MPs have some honour.
Re 274, It is Conservative MP’s who are demanding the apology, so no supries there then. (It is still the right thing to do, but we would do it anyway) we will have to see how much Labour support they get.
Nick P: “I’ve never heard TB describe anything as his legacy”
Of course you would never hear that, but it is totally clear he “is on one”, so far in self-perineal penetration that he resembles one of those peculiar geometries (amoebus somthings?) which have insides as outsides and vice-versa. Like all narcissists, whether successful or no, he believes his own propaganda and would slit his own throat rather than admit that his desire to feel that he impresses outweighs any vestige of morals or principles by about ten to one.
That does not mean that people on PB in any way suggest that said ‘qualities’ have rubbed off on party supporters, or all wish to join Printz in “shooting the messenger.” If you start extolling the benevolence, wit and wisdom of Hilary Armstrong or attempting to justify the feather-bedding of the Cabinet’s pet acknowledged sex-pest and working-class fig-leaf, some of us at least might wish to reconsider this position.
Well said Zebidee. A well balanced assessment.
Vanity Blair is obsessed with his legacy. That’s why he’s rushing through lots of ill-thought bills to lock his successor into having to carry out a Blairite agenda. That’s why he rushed to meet the Iraqi premier for a photo opportunity, even though more people might die as a consequence.
I always knew some day my Printz would come!