Will Labour polling dampen the election speculation?
October 4th, 2007
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Marginals said to be “patchy and extremely tight”
We are going to have to wait until this evening before we see the first post-Blackpool opinion poll and that should be from the YouGov panel on this evening’s Channel 4 News. But according to Steve Richards in the Independent the prospect of an early election has receded following the Tory conference and reaction to Cameron’s speech.
He notes that Brown’s “inner circle is understood to have become more cautious about an election after studying Labour’s private polling in key marginal seats which is described as “patchy and extremely tight”.
He goes on; “…Labour strategists believe their lead in the polls is likely to be dented by the Tories’ pledge to raise the threshold for inheritance tax to £1m. If Mr Brown pulls back from an election, he will be accused of running scared by the Tories after allowing speculation to mount and making contingency plans to announce, next week, a poll for 1 November. A three-year spending programme and pre-Budget report may still be presented on Monday, nine days earlier than planned, even if the election is off…Some Brown allies argue that it would be better to suffer a short-term embarrassment than rush into an election after just 100 days as Prime Minister without being sure of winning a firm mandate. They are confident the Tories’ tax and spending plans will unravel, but say it would be better to “demolish” them over months rather than weeks.”
Meanwhile there’s more cause for Labour caution from the detail of last Saturday’s Populus poll that had Labour with a whopping 10% margin over the Conservatives. As Mark Senior noted in the overnight thread “…As always they are illuminating as to where the Labour lead came from . Comparing the vote in 2005 to voting intention now LibDems lose 12 voters to Labour and 6 to Conservative but gain 10 and 5 respectively . Labour lose 13 to Conservatives but gain only 5 in return . The Labour lead is entirely due to those who did not vote in 2005 where they lead Conservatives by 109 to 39 , a massive margin.”
So in the best poll by far for Labour from the firm since Cameron’s election the Tories are still winning more 2005 Labour voters than they are losing. What will these figures be like in the latest survey from the firm - due out at on Saturday?
Politicalbetting has record day. Meanwhile figures for site traffic show that yesterday was the busiest ever with 85,520 page downloads. This beats by 2,000 the totals on May 4th this year after the local, Scottish and Welsh elections.
Mike Smithson
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The story of the election is all to do with voter turnout, it seems, so Labour need to motivate it. Two reasons it will go up:
1 - Closer election, more important to vote
2 - Labour supporters put off by Iraq in to abstaining will come back
It could well be that most of the Labour’s increase in the “did not vote 2005″ are Type 2, in which case there shouldn’t be too much concern about keeping them on board. Unless Brown decides to send an extra 1000 troops rather than bring them back, I think they’re likely to stick with Labour through the campaign and in to the ballot box. (I hope so anyway!)
1 Unnecessary election when it is cold and dark.
2 Old out of date register.
It’s going to be a record.
(posted from previous thread)
I agree with Roger that the Cameron speech will have much less of an effect than Osbourne’s tax announcements on the public. However this brings us to the heart of the issue of the disjuncture between what is important to the public, what is important “inside the village” and how these two dynamics interplay with each other.
Let’s be clear: Cameron needed a good speech with a good reception yesterday. But the main reason why was not so that he could convince the public about himself (most people, even if they catch a few snippets, would not really care about it), but rather to nip in the bud any potential internal dissent that might have threatened to emerge.
Conversely Brown, if he does not call an election, will not be bothering most of the voting public at all, who do not know about an imminent election and would not think that one is necessary. However the “bottling it” charge could stick and have some impact on his internal standing amongst MPs and particularly activists who have girded their loins for an autumn election.
So fine, both men are concerning themselves with the “village” at the moment, and you could accuse them of missing the big picture. The question you have to ask is: how much can internal dissent cause a more general malaise? I think the IDS example proves a case in point, as he was still relatively popular amongst the grassroots for a long time while the crisis around him was going on. However by the end, the fact that he was not commanding the support and more importantly the respect of the PCP, made his exit easier to swallow. If not firmly managed, a leader *can* run the risk of letting “village” issues spill over into a general perception that his standing has fallen.
To this extent, whilst I have constantly argued that Brown not calling an election will only end up being a footnote to the history of Brown’s tenure, in recent days I am beginning to think that the tactical error in over-egging the talk of an election, the stirring, really, could bounce back on him in a long, round-about way, partly through his own party.
One can but hope!
I don’t think anyone really knows in this febrile atmosphere. Steve R was probably just regurgitating Ben Brogan’s guessing. A lot of the talk coming about marginals seems to be Tory spin anyway - desperate not to have an election.
If turnout is the crucial aspect then he could call if for Saturday Nov 3rd.
We just have to wait for opinion polls. Simple as that.
4. I believe someone posted in the last couple of days that the 1986 RPA means that elections cannot be on weekends, bank holidays or days of mourning. I’ll probably be corrected if that’s wrong but I don’t think it is.
4 - Well currently he would be breaking the law calling an election on 3rd Novemeber.
5 - yep.
“Saturday, Sunday, Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, Maundy Thursday, Good Friday, a bank holiday or a day appointed for public thanksgiving or mourning.”
Ipsos Mori bloke on BBC R5, 7.10 said rumours of private labour polling of marginals not “rosey”. Also political work = 0.1% of ipsos work: they would make more money if they did not do it.
ps. rather shocked at how little coverage the 3,200 trapped miners in SA got last night.
7 Surprised Gordon didn’t declare a Day of Thanksgiving when he became PM
When did we have our last D o T?
9 - I think it was back in 2002 for Her Majesty.
In the 19th century we had Days of National Humiliation ! Wouldn’t that be wonderful ?
11 - We still have those. They usually coincide with an England one day cricket match.
1. The motivation to vote because it will be close should have no net benefit to Labour (or at best - for them - only a very marginal one). Countering those who fear Labour losing power will be those who desire such an outcome and would be able to see the genuine likelihood of it.
Labour ‘returner’s due to Iraq could be a factor, and I’m surprised at the Lib Dem to Labour figures there - I’d have expected a much higher net movement. Presumably the low Lib Dem rating is not because of switchers but because their own voters from 2005 are now less likely to turn out.
Against these possible boosts are the points Jon makes, and possibly one other - postal strikes, which could play havoc with absent votes. The old registers will be at their most out of date around this time of year. I’ve not seen any analysis of whether that favours any particular party and can’t think of any good reason why it should do so, off hand.
The dark nights by contrast should favour the Conservatives. The days of ‘poor weather helps the Tories’ is long gone, if indeed it was ever the case. But there is a significant difference in the way the two main parties’ vote turns out and anyone who has worked in a committee room on polling day knows it: the Tory vote turns out more in the daytime, the Labour one more in the evening. That’s largely down to the demographic make-up of each parties’ vote. As the retired are disproportionately Tory and people with growing children disproportionately Labour, then the Labour voters turn out after work. If it is dark by the time they get back (and in early November, it will be dark by about half past four), there is a psychological shutting out of the world when curtains are drawn or blinds turned. I would expect a small but possibly significant swing to the Conservatives on account of that. This is admittedly a personal hypothesis - I would love to see some analysis of local byelections for example, to see if there’s any merit in it.
Overall, I still believe Gordon would be taking a gigantic risk calling an election with not that much to gain and a vast amount to lose. He has to be certain he will not just win, but win comfortably. He undoubtedly has the option to go should he want it. Indeed, leaving that option open has meant momentum has built up to such an extent that many people now expect it. I’ve always thought the odds on a 2007 election were at any given time too short (but at each stage they’ve moved in, so I’ve not managed my bets terribly well); I still do. I’d probably have it just odds on at the moment, rather than the 1/2 currently trading on Betfair.
Having picked Vickery and Regan, looks as if we may only have to wait until Saturday for the next one!
13 - I’ve seen more than enough markets affected by “insider trading” to suggest that the decision to have a General Election has been taken in principle and has probably gone beyond that. There are probably a fair few people high up in Govt who are coming perilously close to breaking their own law (the Gambling Act).
That is not to say that the final decision has been taken, but if Gordon draws back then we will see a massive drift in the market before it happens.
Brown can’t back down now. He’s push this thing to far down the path to puss out at the end.
I’ve already begun looking forward to an election, so we must have one.
15. Yes it would be interesting to explore the tentacles of bets placed on the Election date. One would hope that those close to those close to the PM’s inner circle refrained from this sort of thing, but …
Matt in the Telegraph:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/graphics/2007/10/04/matt.gif
Well done Mike with the record yesterday. “Things are only going to get better.” And I’m getting goggle eyed trying to scan all the posts!
Alex [15] The Spreadfair market highlighted by Mike on the last thread says not. You can now sell £20 at 40 weeks when if an election happens on Nov 1st will come in at 18 weeks a profit of £440.
Must admit after yesterday I was pretty keen on a November election as I thought Brown would come out of it damaged, but he would be a fool to go to the country, unnecessarily, putting at risk a good working majority. Better to take the hit with the media.
If it is off then hopefully we’ve seen the last of the political game playing and Brown will finally do what he’s been falsely claiming to do and get on with running the country. We’ve had three months of stunts all aimed at destabilising the Tories and making opportunity for an Autumn election. If its off then he can’t run on need for a mandate, must accept its now about running on his record and it’ll be 2009 or more likely 2010.
13- Agree with your points on turnout particularly in relation to the adverse effect on Labour in aprticular of adverse nights.Sense growing public opposition to what Jeremy Paxman on newsnight called “this unneccesary election”.Inn a campauign any labour lead is likley to narrow and the media want thsi clos erace “story”.Also in marginals a huge anmount of money and effort already gonein from Ashcroft.This makes a total mockery of election expense limits and Electoral law on expenses needs to change.
However if the polls show Labour stil with 40% or above Gordon might be temted to go.He might lik eto pocder the polloing evidebc efrom the last 3 elections where the average ICM Guardian rating across the 12 months between 16 and 4 months pre election was an accurate forecast of the final result;
1996/7 Polls C31,Lab 47,Lib 18,Actual C31,Lab 44,Lib 17
2000/1 Polls C33,Lab 42,Lib 18 Actual C33,Lab 42,Lib 19
2004/5 Polls C32,lab 37,Lib 22 Actual C33,Lab 36,Lib 23.
This seems to suggest that people make their mind up broadly in the3/4thyear of a parliament and that the 4 month period before an election makes little difference.
The question is would a similar model work when we are only just over 2years into a parliament,when all 3 leaders have changed,one recently and when there is an autumn not spring election?Probably not.
But here are the figures from the 12 months from July 2006 to June 2007 ….Con 38,Lab 32,Lib 21.Is this the real voter feelin once the froth of the Brown Bounce has blowmn off during a serious election campaign?
Rogerh
Rogerh
Regarding the comparisons with 2005, a big thank you to Mark Senior for pointing this out and to Mike for the whole article.
That said there is also the problem of people saying they voted Labour (because they won) whereas they actually voted for others.
The situation in the marginals is key to this. Why are Labour so unsure? They had extensive data from the locals and should have been doing their own polling. Is the problem that a combination of no cash at the end of Blair’s time and Brown wanting his own people created a gap in Labour’s analysis?
Also Hazel Blears seems to have done a poor job in getting her party ready for an early election, their candidate selections are well behind the other main two in the key English and Wales marginals. Was she too distracted running for the Deputy job?
Add in hopeless Harriet and their selection malaise continues.
alex @ 15 re insider trading — conversely, I have seen more than enough budget leaks that turned out to be false that I now routinely discount any so-called leaks of Brown’s intentions as mere gossip or wishful thinking.
The man from the Returning Officers Association has been on the media quite a lot in the past day or two. I did wonder if he was doing himself and his group any favours - there was an element of “the job we’re paid for is a bit too difficult and we’d rather not do it”.
We don’t have long to wait for the first reaction polls. I predict Labour still in front by 4%.
Anybody read the dead tree press today? Sun raves, Guardian “virtuoso”, Indie raves…
Oh what a beautiful morning,
Oh what a beautiful day,
I’ve got a beautiful feeeeeeeling,
Everything’s going our way!
To great applause at the Tory Conference, Nick Herbert, the Shadow Secretary of State for Justice, announced:
… we will re-balance our constitution to strengthen the Union… by ensuring that English Members of Parliament have the decisive say over English laws.
Indeed? Is he really, really, really sure that such legislation would “strengthen the Union”? He’d better be! Because, let us not forget, Labour always claimed that the purpose of its various devolution Acts was to “strengthen the Union” too. But have they actually achieved that aim? There is only so much “strengthening” that this Union can take before it finally collapses.
I await the Tory manifesto with baited breath.
http://thecep.org.uk/news/?p=190
24 sbjme19 “the job we’re paid for is a bit too difficult and we’d rather not do it”.
Welcome to the mad bad world of nuLabour. Maybe Mr “Northern Rock” Wanless needs to be paid to head a up a Commission into this and the GE can then be delayed?
You just keep stuffing Labour Stuart! Any truth about Salmond standing in Cowdenbeath?
Interesting findings by Mark Senior. As Anatole has mentioned this morning I believe that this last week will have improved the Conservatives chances because of Osbornes tax promises not Cameron’s speech.
Specifically the IHT promise. The stamp duty pledge is neither here nor there. Someone spending £250,000 isn’t over impressed by a £1500 discount particularly when the offer itself is likely to have a marginally inflationary effect on house prices.
There fore I expect Brown in his next weeks spending review to increase IHT to £500,000 which reinforces the Tories helping millionaires and at the same time gives people with more limited savings a better feeling. Brown wont care about charges of plagiarism. Brown’s a serious strategist. I don’t love his politics but as a politician I’m warming to him.
I cannot believe how important the next couple of polls will be. They could literally decide on the next government of this country.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
Rogerh, the difficulty with your figures from the past is that this time we had a change in the Prime Minister 101 days ago so we are not comparing like with like. Of course I hope you are right.
30 Roger “I don’t love his politics but as a politician I’m warming to him.”
Sorry Roger, but you have me a bit baffled. I though that you were a Labour supporter. Brown is Labour, isn’t he? And fairly typical of his party - not some renegade.
Presumably this ‘internal polling’ was the same one that forecast a Labour majority of 50 in 1997. I still believe there will be an election and believe Labour will get a 60-65 seat majority.
31 - Brown will take much more note of labour’s private polling, they are likely to be asking more pertinent questions about marginals and such. To trust the general polls, when they may be hiding patterns, would be foolish.
In fact, if he refused an election when some polls had them clearly ahead, he may even look magnaminous.
‘Letters from a Tory’. Even the self publicist Benedict White treats us to a few words of wisdom before shamelessly advertising his blog on Mikes site!
4 day Postal Strike now - that has a disproportionate effect on election-related activities, and no doubt will totally c.ck up the RM’s preparation for Freepost delivery of election addresses. Let’s all face it - this election was off before it was on.
Did Cameron really say:
“We will do away with Police Authorites and hand over control of local policing to elected Mayors or Police Commisioners”?
re 30, Roger if Brown does uplift the IHT from £300k to £500k he will actually remove the ability to claim that the Conservatives IHT proposal is not fully funded by non doms which has been his main (misguided) line of attack.
The bulk of the estates falling into IHT will be in that £300k to £500k range. Probably between 2/3 and 3/4.
News from the Swansea West frontline! Campaigning in earnest starts next Thursday! Leaflet drops, voter ID (both by phone and on the doorstep), a canvassing rota, envelope stuffing etc all planned. The CLP seems to think Nov 1st is certain.
HF - they already have the Nulab Electoral Commission before whose invention of course elections were run in complete chaos Florida style, thousands of lost votes etc etc. Er..no, actually.
29 - no
33. Disraeli. His rather authoritarian politics isn’t particularly my bag. I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt because I think he’s just following a populist line which all politicians have to do. I think he was a fine and reasonably redistributive chancellor so I still have hopes so I’m sure his heart’s in the right place
Praise from the Sun
“The Sun’s verdict? Mission Very Possible.”
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2007460163,00.html
Even Gordon Pascoe Brown puts in a good word for the Conservatives. (Shock).
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2007460172,00.html
“GUTSY David Cameron set the Tories alight yesterday as he turned Mission Impossible into Mission POSSIBLE.”
O/T Did anyone see Michael Cricks newsnight article last night on the marginal seat of Chester?
Honestly, I’ve never seen such a pathetic bunch of candidates in my life. That goes for ALL parties.
The Labour MP looked like my next door neighbour, and sounded about as clueless about politics as my great-aunt, totally inept and totally out-of-her depth. She sounded rather sweet, in a way, but I can’t believe somebody that ignorant is an MP. She has done NOTHING in the way of campaigning whatsoever. Stupid, stupid woman.
The Conservative candidate had the unfortunate surname of “Mosley”, but that aside, both sounded and looked like a wet rag/computer geek. He looked like an immature CCHQ staffer, not a serious candidate for parliament. He conveyed no confidence or gravitas whatsoever I have no idea *how* he got selected, but I’d be more impressed with a wet towel. On the plus side, at least he was well organised and campaigning hard.
The Liberal Democrat candidate didn’t even seem to exist to start with, eventually Michael Crick tracked her down, she had also done f*ck all and looked like she’d just been pulled in off the street.
Distinctly unimpressive. All of them. Naturally, I want one more Conservative MP in the commons if possible, but I feel very sorry for all the people of Chester.
Very poor show.
HF. No one really cares less about the Non Doms or where the money comes from. For some reason people see an unfairness in IHT at it’s present level and that’s important. I think this would disappear at half a million and if Brown announced it people would know that it could be safely funded.
29. Test - “Any truth about Salmond standing in Cowdenbeath?”
Ho, ho!!
I hadn’t heard that one yet! That would be hilarious: incumbent British Prime Minister versus incumbent Scottish First Minister. Wow, the very concept almost brings tears to the eyes. What a delicious contest that would be.
Result: Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath UK GE 2005
1. Lab (Gordon Brown) 58%
2. SNP 15%
3. LD 13%
4. Con 10%
5. SSP 2%
6. UKIP 1%
7. SSCUP 1%
SNP would need a 21.8% swing. It has been done before, eg. Govan twice, but those were by-elections.
At the 2007 Scottish GE the SNP were only 10% behind Labour in Kirkcaldy; and 16% behind in Dunfermline East (where, funnily enough, Cowdenbeath is actually the largest town).
November cold and dark, dark yes cold no, there is cold weather in November, but it is quite rare, and usually of short duration. Most November days are damp, grey but usually mild, statistically Feb. is the coldest month.
The weather is not the factor in elections it once was, as for dark, I’ve noticed that most places seem to be quite well endowed with street lighting. The only place I could see the weather or light being a problem is the rural areas (were I live, there are no street lights) hardly Labour strongholds.
Once the voters accept, there is a gneneral election, they’ll start to concentrate their minds on the result. Despite the Tories, ‘bounce’ the runes still favour Labour.
Am I missing something? One the one hand we are being told by the Tories to ‘bring it on’, that the ‘private polls’ are not good for Labour (is this Tory spin?), but the whole thrust of (Dave c’mon Yeh!) Cameron speech was to stave off an early election, presumably because they know they will lose badly.
“But here are the figures from the 12 months from July 2006 to June 2007 ….Con 38,Lab 32,Lib 21.Is this the real voter feelin once the froth of the Brown Bounce has blowmn off during a serious election campaign?”
Add to that the month after month of polls showing that when head to head, Cameron had a massive lead over Gordon “Michael Foot” Brown. I can still find no rational explanation as to why that suddenly changed so dramatically on 1 July.
Which is the better indication - a settled 18 months lead for Cameron or the past 3 months post-succession bounce for Brown?
Interesting that the Indy seems confident the election is off. Scoop of the year, or are they just going to look a bit silly? Everyone else seems to think it’s still on, don’t they?
47 (cont)
Alex Salmond achieved a 10.5% swing from Lib Dems to SNP in the Gordon gain in May 2007. But, let’s face it, Nora Radcliffe was a political midget compared to Gordon Brown and the combined might of the British establishment and media.
Still… there would just be that wee element of doubt. God, I am starting to like that idea!
30. “There fore I expect Brown in his next weeks spending review to increase IHT to £500,000 ”
What did I tell you!!!!!
I even predicted that exact threshold amount! But how much longer will Labour get away with stealing Conservative policies and blatantly having none of their own?
What a slimy, scheming, conniving little sh*t Brown is.
45 - yes, good piece re Chester and I agree re the candidates and their parties. The Tory was just wet and very ‘green’ - surely they could have found someone older with more gravitas? The Lab MP at least looked warm and honest. I expect a Lab hold - they should have asked Gyles to come back.
Have you seen the latest rubbish in the Mail, ” What did Dianas last smile in the lift signify?” FFS, perhaps Dodi had farted in the lift!
Peter Ridell, gets it right, he normally does. Note to Bruce Anderson and Mogg, this is how you do it.
http://tinyurl.com/3ba2zl
51 The danger to Brown isn’t Salmond winning but possibility of Salmond winning so he has to spend time in his constituency and deal with matters he doesn’t want headlined. Salmond has nothing to lose as he said he’d drop out of Westminster so losing well could be a triumph.
47, 51: it may be a delicious prospect if all the other parties stood down - straight fight Salmond vs Brown.
Would it distract GB’s attention from the bigger prize?
I could find myself liking Alex Salmond for once if that came to pass!
I’m praying its not 2007 but only from a betting point of view. If its a common consensus that the Cons cant get a majority in one bite then its in their intrest to reduce the majority.
Best price for laying election on betfair is now 1.6 - the money is not certain now for sure.
Roger, yes that is what Brown should have decided to do when Osborne made the announcement. Instead he has used up media goodwill by pushing the line “its unfunded” to them in a massive pr offensive.
If he changes now he will do further damage to that delicate relationship which is already bruised by being excluded from Iraq and misled over the troop numbers etc.
The Sun and Mail are already tottering in their support for Brown because of Europe.
“Peter Ridell gets it right, he normally does.”
Funniest post of the day so far. Keep ‘em coming…
Burbachchris @ 49 — what you are missing is that a November election may well be a lose-lose-lose situation.
Labour will win but Brown needs an increased majority to keep the Blairite ultras in their boxes, and this at a time when boundary changes will take around 15 seats.
Conservatives will lose and unless there is a hung parliament, Cameron will be looking at his P45.
And Ming hasn’t got a snowball’s of matching Charlie’s seat count.
“The Sun and Mail are already tottering in their support for Brown because of Europe.”
The fact that the Conservatives still can’t be sure of the support of the Daily Mail, which hates just about everything Labour stands for, says a lot I think.
50. Bob Sykes. You say that the Indy seems confident the election is off. The Guardian announced an election date of November 1st only the other day. I can only conclude nobody knows for sure because Brown has yet to make his mind up.
63. The Express has an exclusive today that its November the 8th !
62- The fact that one of Brown’s clear objectives is to please Daily mail voters also says a lot about the state of Labour…
Food for thought for GB when he reads today’s Sun - it’s better than I imagined. Surely they are now manoeuvering in the Tories’ direction? Coupled with the EU position, how on earth can The Sun now endorse Brown?
If he backs off, will he be forever saddled with the epithet “Bottler Brown”?
56: we’ve been here before - Reg Keays was going to amass all the people annoyed with Tony Blair and sweep him out of Sedgfield, remember? That sort of thing doesn’t work. It’s essentially a gimmick and people don’t want the PM - especially a local man who they’ve known for a generation - swept out by a gimmick.
The Tories are in triumphalist mode today, but IMO they still don’t genuinely want an election. We should call their bluff unless they’re actually ahead in the polls.
60
If you can’t recognise really, really, good political commentary, then your an idiot. Ridell is superb, easily the best political writer, in any newspaper, in this country.
Just seen Ben Brogan’s latest posting ( apologies if this has been pointed out previously ) as usual he seems to be pretty much on the money, in this case no election this November
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2007/10/there-wont-be-a.html
Thanks for the article Mike. As ever great insight. Mind you so was Mark Senior’s. I can’t see serial non voters getting out on a cold and foggy night.
So the elction is off then?
I never thought it was on, until the last few days when it seemed all but inevitable. Brown is going to look weak in the lobby. It won’t directly affect much but may become an underlying theme as time goes on.
62: If you are willing to ditch decades of party tradition to sprout populist slogans which come from US speeches and BNP leaflets just to get their approval then you might get their support short term but you’ll look bad in the long run.
I agree re Crick’s Chester piece which was hilarious. I could almost vote for the Labour MP - her complete innocence and unawareness was quite refreshing in a politician - unless it was all contrived, but I doubt it. As for the Tory, other sites show that there have been quite a few problems and soul-searching locally with good candidates not making it to the final selection. Just hope it was all worth it…
Re 69, JGC, Exect this Benedict has been predicting no election on his blog for ages
61. “Conservatives will lose and unless there is a hung parliament, Cameron will be looking at his P45.”
Rubbish. Cameron is only at risk if Brown increases his majority.
Very interesting article. I’ve always suspected that the “Brown Bounce” isn’t anywhere near as strong in the southern marginals, as the polls have us believe. And then theres the great uncertainty over what happens to the Liberals vote.
I’m amazed theres not been any major, publiched polling of the marginals. Could it be because the media want an election and they know that if the poll the marginals the election will likely be off?
70
I don’t know how many times I have to keep telling you ‘blue harpies’ November is not cold!!!! and foggy and cold don’t go together.
this was last year……
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/year_review/reviews/november2006_review_england.shtml
Re 67, Nick Palmer, “The Tories are in triumphalist mode today, but IMO they still don’t genuinely want an election. We should call their bluff unless they’re actually ahead in the polls.”
Brave talk, Nick, go on! Do it!!!!!!!!
67 Nick Palmer MP
The thing is Nick, Gordon Brown would probably not be “swept out” of Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath by an Alex Salmond challenge; but, my goodness, would it focus attention on the Scottish Question (and thus by default the English Question), especially for the international media, who would be bound to pick up the story as a key point of interest in an otherwise dull election.
Even with only a modest swing from Brown, such a bold challenge could potentially create a big dividend for the SNP.
And Reg Keays is a political midget compared to the threat posed by Alex Salmond.
Have to admit I’m going by reports of the week - thanks to all here for their wide-ranging responses - rather than seeing or hearing any of it myself (rather a busy few days taking in Moscow - and meeting the scariest man in the world - and Valencia).
But clear that Cameron did the minimum he needed to, and a bit more. It puts pressure on GB to be decisive, one way or the other.
Still think that he is minded to go for it, and would feel confident of winning a majority.
But as I said last week, he will be wanting a maj of 100-plus, which would effectively guarantee eight more years of NuLab. That has to be the evidence of the polls before he can sensibly make the call.
67. Nick, what’s the problem?
I thought you said we were looking at a repeat of 1997?
Call it.
48.”The weather is not the factor in elections it once was” GOM, I think you are wrong there, we have seen a developing pattern of colder wetter wilder weather in my area over the last couple of years. Two years ago the local schools were shut for 2 days because of snow!
Don’t just look at the overall picture because there can be stark regional variations, a bit like the polls.
78 Surely it would only be a dull election if the outcome was a foregone conclusion. And if it was, then GB wouldn’t be worried about that level of interest…..?
68 - I don’t dislike Riddell, I find his pieces well-written, punchy and fairly incisive. But he’s so pro-Labour it hurts. Which is why you like what you read from him, and why your “he usually gets it right” comment so raised a smile on my face when I saw it.
I find Rees-Mogg gets it right more often than Riddell.
But both Riddell and Rees-Mogg are in a league above the Times’ joker in the pack, Tim Hames. Who I think could actually be Roger.
64 Harry, was the Express Nov 8 date something from the Diana inquest?
13 There is a significant movement from LibDems to Labour presumably the returning Iraq factor but perhaps surprisingly there is despite the change from Blair to Brown an almost as large movement in the other direction and this is picked up not just in this poll but previous ICM and Populus Polls . Apart from likelihood to vote , the Populus weightings for past recall are not as kind/generous to LibDems as ICM . This Populus poll actually found more LibDems than the previous ICM poll and yet the published figure was 17% v ICM’s 19% .
70 They are not all serial non voters Benedict , a proportion of them will be first time 18-21 year olds who are of course predominately Labour but do not turn out in as high %’s as the older voter .
re Cowdenbeath - I’m not sure the Con candidate pulling out would change the election much
83 - Oh my god you must be joking! Rees-Mogg is an old boob and a joke!
67. Maybe it’s the Conservatives who’ve called Browns bluff?
84. Yes as there would be an election that day they would be free to extend the Peoples Princess coverage from 12 to 26 pages.
Crick on Chester might be explained by saying that one of New Labour’s triumphs is the election of a lot of MPs who have no great ideological commitment (so are unlikely to make trouble for the dear leader) but who see it as a job. What have been the great achievements of this new intake? Better hours, better wages, better pensions. But only for MPs, naturally.
Or perhaps there have always been a lot of poor MPs.
The biggest backlash for Brown in ‘calling off’ an election that I have never imagined he wanted anyway will come from his own side, frustrated and angry that he has prevaricated and then balked at the best opportunity they will have.
But I think there will be more damage and disillusionment from members. One of my Blackpool taxi drivers was incandescent with Brown for in his words ’sucking up’ to Mrs Thatcher - ‘I’m an old Labour man and I thought Brown was going to be different to Blair - but I am beginning to realise he is the same, but without the charm’.
62 Dave H “The fact that the Conservatives still can’t be sure of the support of the Daily Mail, ……….says a lot I think.”
1. Brown wraps himself in the flag uses BNP quotes and dates Thatcher. Things that Labour party members seem ok with!
2. Dacre wants a knighthood?
82 laptop - “Surely it would only be a dull election if the outcome was a foregone conclusion”
But the result is a foregone conclusion!!
Just what exactly is the supposèd difference between Brown vs Cameron or Labour vs Tory? They are just different faces of the same tedious old dull coin.
Brown or Cameron? Who cares? It’ll make bugger all difference.
People seem to agree that Brown calling an election sets a new precedent against the previous constitutional convention that the PM only uses his perogative near the end of a term or after a crisis.
Does this now mean that a PM is free to call an opportunistic General Election the day after the leader of the opposition resigns?
I think it probably does…
91, Marcus your point illustrates the fact that Brown has not accounted for the effect of his actions on his base of activists.
90. “Or perhaps there have always been a lot of poor MPs. ”
Even Blair admitted (off-hand) that he wasn’t impressed with the quality of the vast majority of his MP’s.
If you look at parliament up until the 1980s, it was staffed by men/women of experience and professional expertise. Intelligent, articulate, successful and serious people.
Nowadays, politics has many, many more serial lightweights for whom politics IS their career and have never had a proper job.
Works on occassion but, in general, I prefer a politician who has experience of the real world.
93 - Were you actually paying attention?
91 Well here’s one Labour member who would be delighted if there wasn’t an Autumn election. With a newish born boy, I personally could do with an easy time at the moment. That said still more optimistic about Labour’s prospects than at any time since 2003.
85 Mark Senior, these young voters are also likely to be the most disenfranchised because of the electoral shambles.
72 oops - *were* quite refeshing!
jgc Does Brogan gives us the ’stand down’ spin from Labour:
“Brown Central is convinced that George Osborne has given them all the ammunition they need for a protracted demolition campaign centred on the “fantasy” costings behind his tax cut proposals. Some are even seeing it as a Black Wednesday moment that will prove to be as disastrous for the credibility of the Cameron/Osborne generation as 1992 was for John Major and his lot.”
If so it suggest that the Tories have taken control of the political agenda.
96 - it probably doesn’t help that (certainly in Labours case) the principal speakers are restricted to the time it takes to say I’m X shadow/secretary of state for happiness and warm rosy feelings. We will stuff the other lot. We are great. Cue huge ovetion.
Given that Labour hasnt had time to rebuild its local party machine post-Blair in many marginals that it needs to gain (and hold), the postal strikes will surely be hugely problematic because Labour will be relying on the freepost and national paid delivery for almost all their literature?
The member for Broxtowe has it about right, but he misses a point.
The Tories basically don’t want the election now, whatever the say. Because they think they will lose. Lsbour basically do want it, because they think they will win. Simple as that. C’est vrai.
However the two positions have blurred in the last two weeks. Because the subtler underlying position is that Labour now has more to lose than the Tories.
The Tories are already in opposition for three more years. Another election defeat means they will be in opposition for five more years, max. So what. Same old same old. Time to finish their reforms.
Unless there is a total meltdown at the polls (unlikely after yesterday, and their core vote is solid) the Tories will probably emerge with a similar number of seats, at worse. Cammo is safe.
By contrast, Labour have it ALL to lose. They could just possibly be defeated, they could certainly lose their overall majority; even a win of less than solid proportions would weaken a leader with a tenuous grip on his self-esteem.
That’s Labour dilemma. They look like they would win, but it could all go so easily and horribly wrong.
Tricky.
93 James Burdett - “Were you actually paying attention?”
Errr…. no, not really. And here’s some news for you: neither were the electorate at large.
Politicians (and pb’ers) may spend 24 hours a day up their own electioneering ar*es, but, back in the real world, nobody gives a fig for all the grunting and posturing.
Normal people only pay attention to politics when there are genuine substantive differences between political parties. Currently, in England, insufficient substantive differences exist to spark the electorate’s (or the international media’s) attention. In Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland however…..
Re 85, Mark Senior, point noted, but they are still less likely to actually vote are they not.
I meant post 97 James Burdett (not 93)
102 James, is it not a fact that most of Brown’s cabinet were restricted to 7 min speeches? An amazing demonstration of the fact that he wants to keep his colleagues to a back office role.
As I have said previously, most of the Lib Dem shadow cab are more impressive than their Labour counterparts.
I remain very confident that there will be a November election, based on Brown needing only a 4% lead in the polls (i.e. roughly half the levels recently recorded)to score a resounding victory. Cameron did well yesterday, very well, but it remains Labour’s for the taking.
Reading the posts here, one could be forgiven for thinking that the prospects of a November poll had all but vanished - not so, GE 2007 remains the strong odds-on favourite and since pb.com is a serious betting site it’s important that this point is made.
Anyone remember that bit in Monty Python & the Holy Grail where the minstrels berate Sir Robin for his cowardice?
I’ve adapted it in time for next week’s PMQs:
Cameron: [singing] Brave Sir Gordon ran away…
Sir Gordon: *No!*
DC: [singing] bravely ran away away…
Sir Gordon: *I didn’t!*
DC: [singing] When danger reared its ugly head, he bravely turned his tail and fled.
Sir Gordon: *I never did!*
DC: [singing] Yes, brave Sir Gordon turned about, and valiantly, he chickened out.
Sir Gordon: *Oh, you liars!*
DC: [singing] Bravely taking to his feet, he beat a very brave retreat. A brave retreat by brave Sir Gordon.
83
Rees Mogg is a joke, during the last election he wrote, ‘Due to flaws in the polls the Tories are at least 5% ahead of Labour’
I’m not interested in Riddell’s political persuasion, whatever it is, he doesn’t allow it to flavour his commentary.
Unlike failed Conservative Candidate Rees (wrong again) Mogg.
83. Bob. Are you being ironic? Or did you find it useful when Rees Mogg uniquely predicted a Tory win in 2001 and a Tory lanslide in 2005?
108 - Most empty spaces are more imressive than the Labour Cabinet.
104 It’s like putting the life savings on a 2/5 bet. Not much to gain, plenty to lose. Not sure I’d do it.
101 If the Tories couldn’t gain control of the agenda after a week of blanket coverage it would be a pretty poor result. Let’s see how long it lasts. Even the Lib Dems managed it for a bit.
BTW Regarding the Lib Dems, where are they? Who is leading their fightback? I know the press are not interested at the moment. But who is leading them in the media right now? The most visible Lib Dem is Vincent cable, good bloke - but never going to set the world alight. Nick Clegg should be on the Telly 24/7 right now if you ask me. Where is he?
Another interesting straw in the wind. The laughably chippy Kevin Maguire has a hysterectomy about Cameron in the Mirror this morning - and buried at the bottom of his bileduct of a column is the news
‘I understand Brown is cooling on a November election’
http://tinyurl.com/ynta2w
These journos can’t all be getting their gossip from each other, can they? Maguire, Richards, Brogan? Don’t buy it. I think someone at Labour HQ is sending out signals about a climbdown.
They are paving the road to Smolensk, ready for a retreat from Moscow. Just in case it is needed.
re: November weather, Labour MPs in Scotland are horrified at the idea of a November election. This is primarily because Alex Salmond is still enjoying his bounce up there, while Labour are in a recently defeated “trough”. But also weather in November in Scotland is very different to England. It is cold, windy, wet and VERY dark. Sunset in the central belt is considerably earlier in November.
Add to that the SNP will run heavy on the line of “This election is unecceassary and is purely driven by Brown’s obsession by English marginals - this shows the contempt with which Gordon Brown treats Scotland, rural Scotland in particular…”
104. SeanT’s analysis is very cogent- probably the closest I’ve seen to a clear explanation of Ball’s “where does the gamble lie” remarks.
Cameron doesn’t want an election, so he’s done all he can this week to shore up the Tory base,- tax cuts, a return to tred meat on Europe and immigration, while combining it with policies on Health and education that try to appeal both to the tory right and to the middle ground.
That isn’t an election winning strategy. No chance. But it could, under the right circumstances be a non-losing strategy in the short term.
However, the corollory to that is that by trading in his long term policy agenda 9such as it was) for a short term boost in the polls, Cameron leaves himself exposed to a sustained policy debate- something he’s been desperate to avoid for the last two years.
That changes the dynamics for a longer term battle- Labour strategists could argue that their current stregh has forced Caneron to show his hand to stop an early election, and that this can now be picked off over a longer period- - and this is what people appear to be telling Brogan.
Personally, I’m sceptical baout how much has really changed. I think the fundamentals are lab c 39 Tories c34. If the polls are about there I’d be going for it.
110 With Cameron cast in the role of the Black Knight.
DAVE: Come Here.
GORDON: What are you going to do … bleed on me?
DAVE: I’m invincible!
GORDON: You’re a loony.
DAVE: The DAVE always triumphs. Have at you!
GORDON takes his last leg off. The DAVE’s body lands upright.
DAVE: All right, we’ll call it a draw.
GORDON: Come, Ming.
GORDON start to cross the bridge.
DAVE: Running away eh? You yellow bastard, Come back here and take what’s coming to you. I’ll bite your legs off!
Someone wanting to punt £4433 on 2007 at 1.57 on Betfair.
118 King Arthur surveys the House of Commons.
“On second thoughts, let’s not go there. It is a silly place…”
116. MBoy
Indeed!
A November 2007 GE could be a perfect storm for the Scottish independence movement. Are Labour willing to risk that? And for what?
And yet if he dithers, Brown will have to face the electorate in a recession.
Tricky one that
:D 
115: There are going to be a lot of Labour shills who are going to look really very foolish if the Clunking One doesn’t call an election. Some like Kevin Maguire will find some reason to claim it’s the Tories fault but many will feel used.
stjohn - I saw this on one of your posts last night:
what a lot of fun we look likely to have at Chez Michael.
Is this something to do with pb.com’s next party venue, which I’ve obviously missed, or are you just being your usual cryptic self?
122. Actually, I think the most likely explanation for all this conflicting evidence is the most obvious one: Gordo simply hasn’t decided yet, and is as confused as the rest of us.
So Labour are trying to keep all options open - by signalling to journos that there may be a climbdown, while moving the constitutional furniture so they ready to lay the electoral carpet, if necessary.
Brown is waiting on the polls. Like all of us. Exciting!
117
I’m with you, but I’d be surprised if Labour got 39%, more like 37 with 38 tops, Tories will get 34%/35% tops. Still think Libdems, will surprise us ,see them 18% with 19% tops.
118: “GORDON: Come, Ming.”
So you concede that a hung parliament’s likely if Brave Sir Gordon goes to the polls next month then?
126 No just predict that Ming will follow Brown where ever he goes banging his nuts together.
What do people think is the going to be the lead that the YouGov survey from Channel Four tonight will mean Brown hits the GO button? It was 44/33/13 last week and I’d expect to see the Conservatives go up by three or four and the maybe Lib Dems to nick a point or two from Labour. That would be, roughly 39/36/15 which, with worse case scenario margins of error, could be a -3 lead for Labour which would return them 14 short in a HP. On the other hand if the other polls at the weekend averaged out a 3-4% lead you’d have to think he’d go for it. I think that the last week has seen the Conservatives do enough to stop the election but not enough to win it. Conservatives under 36% and a lead of three points would be the bare minimum I think.
125 - i reckon:
Lab 39-40
Con 35-36
LD 18
Anything less than 35 for the Cons over the next few days and I reckon it’s on. Above that it’s too tight for comfort.
121 Recession ? What recession Stuart ? It does make a change for a doom and gloomster on here to be other than a Conservative poster .
129 If it is Yougov , LibDems will not be on 18 .
Brit spin Are you assuming that he Tory policies announced at the conference are the totality of an election manifesto?
They almost certainly are not, and one or two from the Front Bench more or less said there was stuff kept in the locker for an election.
Neither should you assume that the announcements were aimed at shoring up the base alone. Stamp duty for first time buyers, zero tolerance policing, removing the excessive bureaucracy, better treatment of the armed forces and so on resonate with the electorate as a whole.
The problem for Labour as time progresses is that Tory policies used to be popular as long as the Tory tag was not attached. It now seems that is changing and the Tory tag is no longer an automatic negative.
Certainly two more years would make it possible to make that change completely, and that is why this, and the economic risks, is the best time for Brown to go for it.
But even with this change only partly made the dynamics are changing. Labour can no longer say ’same old Tories’ and get everyone on side. At one time their hubris in announcing melt down at the Tory conference might have moved the media. This time it didn’t and the ‘predictions’ have proved so far from the mark they have further weakened the media trust.
The word ’stunts’ appears more and more frequently in the press and on phone-ins. Labour are trying to operate as if it is 1997, and it is not washing.
That is not to say the Tories will win an election this year, very unlikely I would say, but it does suggest the Labour machine needs to do a ‘reset’ and think again, because it could well mean that the government’s majority is lost if they carry on this way.
110,116,118: So many things one can do with Monty Python…
DAVE: “Answer me, these questions three? - What is your name”
GORDON: “Gordon Broon”
DAVE: “What is your favourite colour?”
GORDON: “Labour Red of course”
DAVE: “When are you calling the election?”
GORDON: “Is that a European, General or African Election?”
DAVE: “Ooh, I don’t know” - Screams as is thrown into an abyss…
123. Peter. This is Chez Michael. Here. The virtual home of The Mighty Smithson and his increasingly extending PB family.
Chris D from last thread.
That is the problem. I’m guessing the leaking through of the credit issues, price inflation and so on is really only go to hit in 2008 thus if there is no 2007 election Brown might be able to pull an early 2008 job before thing become noticebale in Joe Voter’s pocket.
If not, it has to be long which has aleays been my original feeling but given the possibility of 2007 being very live has completly messed up my book which reads as:
2007: Modest Loss
2008: Stake Saver, tiny profit
2009: Decent priofit
2010: Decent Profit
I always felt 2007 was a possible given issues coming down the line (as posted as nauseum by myself) but the head of steam that it built up has caught myself, and by the looks of it many others, a bit short.
In assessing the eagerly awaited poll figures, Brown will also need to consider the impact of any increased Lib Dem vote when the real vote takes place. Nobody really thinks they will do as badly as 13%-16%, do they? More likely to be 17%-20%.
134 Thanks, just me being a bit dim then - well it was late!
It wasn’t supposed to be like this. Collecting an army after its glorious decade of victories in battle, Goliath Gordon would run a miltary campaign based on his experience gained at the General’s side. After all, he had gravitas - and a gargantuan intellect. And what did he face in his first battle? The callow youth David.
Goliath’s army was kept in view for only seven minutes, whilst he strode the Bournemouth battle field like a collosus. Goliath felt no shame in picking up his opponents weapons and throwing them back at them. And why should he worry? What was he up against? A boy king, heading a broken, aged and demoralised army, running from defeat to defeat. Truly, Goliath would grind the bastards into the dust.
And what was that his opponent David wielded? A slingshot?
Mwaaaaahaaaahaaaaaahaaahhahhahh - ouch! That really hurt…..”
And so Goliath did slink away to fight another day. But even as he did so, his Army stared at a blackening sky. This was an ill omen….
Well, if no election is called, what are the likely odds on Ming lasting ’til Christmas?
About 5 minutes ago, suddenly, a rather big bet was placed on there being a 2007 election.
Re. big bet - it was on Betfair.
I think it was Kellner on Newsnight who said that Brown would ideally like to see the polls over the next two weeks in order to make a decision, as they will give him a better picture of the real position.
That seems sensible as instant polls,such a MORI, show steep increases followed by steep declines between the Brown speech and the next weekend. So instapolls are a bit of a lottery, and I shall be more impressed by evidence from polls in ten days time than from this weekend, as the later date will be the real end of the conference season.
But Brown, if he wants an election this year, needs to decide this weekend at the latest. A tough one.
I think any lead will do, 2/3% will certainly do. Labour will reckon, that after Dave’s speech etc. if they hold a lead, they’ll forge ahead during the campaign.
Labour will be particularly heartened by the way they bounced back after the Rhys Jones murder, and the other gun crime incidents. The Tories were able to attack hard on the law and order front, cutting Labour’s lead. Labour however survived that attack and regained the lead shortly afterwards. Proving to me, that Labour’s support is harder than the Tories: but time will tell.
104 There is definately something very strange going on at the moment in that I find myself in complete agreement with a sweet and reasonable seanT, very odd.
I do think the election is off ( if it was ever on in the first place ) but we wshall see
100% and 0%: that’s my estimate of the relative weightings of Party and National interest in Brown making his election decision.
Does anyone have a link for Wells’s election seat predictor?
143 Yep, now is probably as good as it’s going to get for the Tories - at least in the short term.
I think the poll should be on a saturday as people would have more time to vote in daylight. All the indications I have seen from the Labour party is that their is going to be an election.
I’m fascinated by the idea of ‘Labour activists’. There’s more chance of seeing a unicorn playing a ukelele. How many Labour posters (or anyone else’s for that matter) were in windows last time around either. Probably for the reason Stuart Dickson suggests. Tweedledum v tweedledee.
Have we reached a new low in politics?
Brown is a cynical and exploitative politician, he will manipulate the levers of state to maximise the electoral advantage for Labour.
Are we now witnessing the rape of democracy in this country by Brown. The election should Brown not be too Chicken to call it is welcome! What is unwelcome is Brown using trips to Iraq as photo opportunities with British Troops.
The really unsettling thought I have had this morning is concerned by the Government and the potential postal strike. Could the Government be deliberately orchestrating the strike to minimise the oppositions effectiveness. We are all aware of campaign limits but could it be the case that Labour have done this to pervert any chance of opposition parties denting Labours Incumbency advantage in any key marginal – pre announcement?
Whilst I am not into conspiracy theories, it would be interesting to see if next Tuesday the postal strike magically lifts? Let us remember a certain cabinet minister was a leader of the communication workers union prior to 1997, he did after all deliver to Dorneywood as a young postal worker!
The government through their Union affiliation and effective control of a Nationalised industry control two sides of the same coin! Something is beginning to smell, If they can lie about Iraq and Cash for Peerages, what else are they capable of?
http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/predicting-results-2/
143 - Also something to be considered Labour will dominate the news agenda early next week with the Iraq statement and CSR.
Parburypolitica @ 148 re Saturdays — remember, remember, the fifth of November … which is why an awful lot of voters will have other things to do on the Saturday either side.
How the Daily Mash saw Dave’s speech. Even a Blue Harpie could smile at this!!
http://tinyurl.com/2s9q5r
147. http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/index.htm is also quite handy.
154 Yep, Guido would have something to say about that.
Is this an ideal time, from Gordon Brown’s point of view, to call an election? No.
However, is there likely to be a better time? No. Most of the issues that are - rightly - cited as obstacles are not going to go away, and within a few months there could be new problems, such as a cooling economy and a deflating housing market.
Ergo, there will be an election unless the polls next weekend are absolutely disastrous for Labour.
133. Classic
Brother Maynard: Armaments, chapter two, verses nine through twenty-one.
Cleric: [reading] And Saint Gordon raised the Labour manifesto up on high, saying, “O Lord, bless this thy Labour manifesto, that with it thou mayst blow thine Tory enemies to tiny bits, in thy mercy.” And the Lord did grin. And the people did feast upon the foot and mouth and MSRA, and bank runs and interest rates, and pitiful pensions and unemployment benefits, and fruity rhetoric and staged TV present…
Brother Maynard: Skip a bit, Brother…
Cleric: And the Lord spake, saying, “First shalt thou take off the Holy cellophane. Then shalt thou count to three weeks before launch, no more, no less. Three shall be the number thou shalt count, and the number of the counting shall be three. Four shalt thou not count, neither count thou two, excepting that thou then proceed to three. Five is right out. Once the number three, being the third number, be reached, then lobbest thou thy Holy Labour manifesto of Kirkcaldy towards thy Tory foe, who, being naughty in my sight, shall snuff it.
Brother Maynard: Amen.
Bournville Observer @ 141,142 re big bet on 2007 — £4-5,000 asking for 1.57 suggests a punter or trader reading the market. Anyone with real insider knowledge would back it off the boards, taking whatever prices are offered for a sure thing.
Martin Day @ 151 — were no Tories ever photographed alongside soldiers?
148Agree a Saturday poll would be best.I gather this is possible if all leaders agree.Would it still be possible to go for Saturday 28th October,the day before the clocks go back?
Can gordon go for a 3 week campaign.If so what is lattest he can announce to make - a snap election would suit labour- less time to lose their lead and would go down well with public who find election camapigns tediously long!
That said I still not sure it will happen unless weekend polls show Labour ot 40% or over.
Rogerh
Rogerh
151 Martin very interesting.
While I don’t think Brown would heisitate to do what you suggest if he thought it was to his advantage in practice. But is it? There must be a possibiltity that the right wing press or opposition parties manage to link the postal strikes with Labour’s mismanagement of the economy and depending on what other news is around this could resonate with the public. But perhaps you are suggesting that Labour will from Tuesday take credit for resolving the industrial dispute.
144. I really don’t understand this Labour mentality - which is the same as that espoused by Nick P upthread - i.e. ANY LEAD WILL DO. WE SHOULD GO TO THE PEOPLE EVEN IF WE ARE JUST 3% AHEAD.
What the F is that about? I can, of course, understand why you want an election with a double-digit lead. Sure.
But why take the risk of a general election when you might just be 3% ahead? What’s the point? Why endanger your majority? Why not wait for a better time in the next three years?
Do you guys know something we don’t? Is a plague headed our way? A slump? What?
Or are you secretly scared that this, now, is as good as it can get for Labour - i.e. that your leader is a liability and the Tories are on the way back?
Please explain!
161 - but why go to such lengths for a totally unnecessary election that doesn’t have to take place for another 2.5 yrs?
Even though I want a poll, I’d still love Her Maj to tell Brave Sir Gordon to get lost.
161 - The leaders can agree all they like, it is illegal. It would require primary legislation to change.
The large punt on betfair on an election this year is interesting, either they know something or they are taking quite a risk as all the suggestions this morning are no. Reasonable short term return though if it does happen, approx £2200 for a £4000 stake. I suppose it could be one of the bookies laying off a bet they have taken.
Sputnik was launched 60 years ago today.
How time flies.
Relevance to this site? Zero.
134 - I think itis actually a case of
DAVE: “Answer me, these questions three? - What is your name”
GORDON: “Gordon Broon”
DAVE: “What is your favourite colour?”
GORDON: “Red - er, no, blue, er….”
Screams as is thrown into an abyss…
167 Time flies slower than i thought. Try 50 years ago in 1957.
Mike - Too many polls of PBers can a bit boring, BUT a poll on 1) Do you think there will be an election in 1997? and 2)How would you vote? Might be interesting.
165 - interesting question - if Brown goes privately to Cameron and says - will you support a change to Saturday elections - what should Dave do? If he says no, then Gordon will try to heap all the expected administrative cock-ups at Cameron’s door - “Well, if the Tories had only gone along with our sensible proposal for a Saturday vote…”. But if he says yes does that hurt the Tories?
I’d be interested to hear from LD posters whether some sort of limited pact with the Greens is possible.
There are one or two seats; Brighton Kemptown, for instance, where the Greens clearly have a better chance. Set against that the presence of Green candidates, often losing their deposits( which must be a consideration for the Greens), could cost LDs a few seats as they did last time eg Guildford.
lord dharzi and health review getting panned as blatant electioneering on sky. bring forward an interim announcement of more ‘reviews’ meaning that hospital closures are all delayed till after an election.
163. Because they know its possibly not going to get better…..
170 - Yes, I think there will be a poll in 1997. Let me get my history books out now…
172 - I could ask the same question of Tories and UKIP - give UKIP a free run in (say) one of the East Midlands seats… hey presto the likes of Marcus in Torbay are massively helped by no UKIP candidate.
170 Do you think there will be an election in 1997?
The result might be a tad one-sided!
168 As if Cameron is Mr Consistency:
Dave, David,
Blue, no Green, no Blue,
Grammar Schools yes, er no.
Iraq yes, no, yes, no, yes.
etc
re 4 How many times does it need saying. A general election on a Saturday is a legal impossibility under the current law.
168.
:lol: 
:lol:
166. Yes, interesting jgc. It was £4433 when I posted an hour ago. Now reduced to £3067 so over £1K has been taken up.
I know this is a fairly obvious point, but making the decision purely on the basis of opinion polls as they stand now in the post-Tory conference period is surely not a great way for Brown to decide.
There’ll be a campaign, after all. The polls will shift anyway in the weeks to come. Brown just needs to have courage. If he lacks courage, query whether he’ll be a good PM.
It was a tactical error for him to allow this election fever to build up but it appears to be entirely of his own doing.
167 - “Relevance to this site? Zero.”
No different to any of your other posts then, which usually comprise insults and mudslinging at people who say things you don’t want to hear. You’re a dosser and a dwad.
178. The left tries to do “humour”.
181 …. or cancelled.
171 - Cameron would just say such an important change can not be properly made in 2 or 3 days to better suit an election timetable.
Lennon
Fair point but there is a national downside from the Conservatives having a pact with UKIP; Labour will hammer them for an alliance with the ‘extreme right’.
I’m not sure the same consideration applies to a limited agreement between LDs and Greens. I suspect most voters see the Greens as nice, fluffy and hopelessly impractical rather than dangerously left wing.
If the Greens had any sense they’d realise that putting a huge effort into Brighton Kemptown might get them past the finishing post. That would get them 100 times more credibility than racking up 3 and 4 per cents in places like Guildford. Yet those 3 and 4 per cents are badly damaging the LDs.
136.Yokel, thanks for the reply.
143.”I think it was Kellner on Newsnight who said that Brown would ideally like to see the polls over the next two weeks in order to make a decision, as they will give him a better picture of the real position.”
I still maintain that Brown would really be pushing the activists and the voters patience if he tries to go past Nov 1st. Scotland is not as solid as normal for Labour right now, this will not enthuse his activists or voters who are already suffering campaign fatigue following local and Holyrood elections. That campaign was tough and hard fought because it was so close, I don’t know anyone in any of the parties who is enthusiastic and up for a November GE.
184. True.
163: seanT - it’s a fair question, and my reasoning is this:
- We all know that conference bounces are not entirely sustained. If the Tories are just level pegging now, they will, other things being equal, be behind by next week. If there are 3% behind now they are likely to be 6-7% behind. This isn’t a partisan observation - I said much the same when we were 11% ahead on our post-conference bounce.
- I know for certain that we are better prepared in my patch. If Doug at post 150 wants to see Labour activists, he’s welcome to pop by and see the 20 or so people we expect to have out this weekend, with many more promised if an election actually happens. It is possible that Broxtowe Tories have teams of this size working undercover, but I don’t think so.
- Discretion makes me relatively reticent about the national scene, but my understanding is that we think we are much better prepared for an election in November than the Tories.
So say tonight’s poll shows us 1% ahead, and next week it’s say 5%, and we have the better of the two campaigns. Why delay? Yes, there’s a risk. They will always be a risk. But it looks good to me unless the Tories are actually ahead tonight.
151: The contemporary postal workers aren’t all that enamoured of their former General Secretary: IIRC, they didn’t endorse him for the Deputy Leadership contest.
162. Yes Brown would take Credit, he would also disrupt or eat into the budgets of the opposition parties. You can look at it both ways, one thing is for sure i do not trust Brown one jot!
Thanks Ralph.
189 But it looks good to me unless the Tories are actually ahead tonight.
Nick - so you’re expecting to see some post Con conference polls out later today?
Duh 2007
re 136 Yokel I’m either in the brown stuff or not because currently I’m
2007 huge loss
2008 huge profit
2009 huge profit
2010 hue profit
189 - How complacent can you get? Just because party bounces have in the past slipped back later doesn’t mean it will necessarily happen now. That great investment caveat should apply about past performance etc.
186 - True, and I see your point, I was just trying to be slightly devils advocatey. I can see the logic of your arguement, and the Libs and Greens could both argue it on a ‘we wouldn’t have to do this if the electoral system was remotely fair, but we are going to attempt to use the system that we have’
Problem is that the Green Candidate in (say) Guildford has probably spent lots of time preparing and campaigning, and maybe even getting elected locally, possibly on the back of GE media exposure. What’s to stop them standing as a ‘Green Independant’ and still taking 3-4%. Similiarly, what’s to stop those nasty Tories claiming all over the place - ‘The Libs are secretly Greens - and just look at how wacky and left wing they are economicaly. Best vote for those nice safe Tories instead…’
I’ve posted for a long time that I think an autumn election is likely. What’s clinched it for me now is our very own Mr Consistent, otherwise known as Nick Palmer MP, who has for some time posted - with reasons given - that an election this year was unlikely, unnecessary, etc. etc.
Yesterday he posted this about the Tories: They’re having a good conference with helpful media coverage, and I do anticipate a narrow poll after DC’s speech, as noted yesterday. But I don’t think they have a real chance at this stage - which I why I think we should go this year.
Ergo, it’s on. QED.
“Discretion makes me relatively reticent about the national scene, but my understanding is that we think we are much better prepared for an election in November than the Tories.”
You may have been better prepared back in September but all this rumouring means the Conservatives have got everything ready and prepared in the key marginals. If you think otherwise you have very poor intelligence reports.
189. Palmer.
Could it not be that your own experiences in your own seat are colouring your perceptions?
Clearly, you have done a lot of groundwork in your own patch. Well done. But that does not mean everyone else has.
Chester is a case in point.
189 Nick, I fully accept that you are highly likely to retain your seat because you seem to have built things properly with continual canvassing etc. You are the exception. Other Labour MPs with bigger % majorities than yours are in a much weaker position.
But nationally? If Labour are so better prepared how come in their top 12 LD targets you only have candidates selected in 7 of the 12. The Conservatives have candidates for 11 of their LDs top 12 targets. The only one missing was Westmoreland where the candidacy fell apart.
If Brown is the EVIL, malicous, dictator that many of you are saying he is. Then surely if he was that desperate for power and that sure that he didn’t stand a chance in 2008 or 2009. He would be sucking up to the Lib Dems, promising them PR in a deal on standing down in certain seats, or coming in as coalition partner.
195. It was not punting heavily on 2008 that allowed me to scrape out on 2007 without a killer loss. When I say modest its in the 10s of pounds which is lucky.
189. Nick has obviously already seen the postal votes
New Market on PP - When Will Brown Call an Election?
Applies to the date Gordon Brown officially declares he’s calling a UK General Election. Bets will be void if Gordon Brown fails to call an election on any of the below dates.
Friday 5th October 9.00
Saturday 6th October 7.00
Sunday 7th October 6.00
Monday 8th October 3.00
Tuesday 9th October 1.50
Any other day in October 2007 7.00
Bets void if he does call a GE means it might be worth a punt on the odds on date on Tues 9th as I can’t see it being earlier with all the announcements on Monday, and any other day in Oct to cover a delay as he can wait until Tues 16th if he wants to go for Nov 8th.
200 You sound like Colonel Ross from IPCRESS.
202. Well it is the way he goes about things, remember power corrupts! I think he has some very strange behavoural traits! I am not referring to what his former advisers, civil servants or MP’s have said. It is how he manipulates power and uses it to the Labour parties advantage. Lets remember he is only interested in power otherwise he would have resigned over Iraq if he is to believed that he opposed it. Brown is nothing but a charleten and fraud.
207 - yes, and Ponceyboots Cameron is the “real deal”, eh? Jesus, get some perspective people.
If the Conservatives are running Labour close in this weekend’s polls, then I think calling an election now would be (as they said about hedge funds) like running onto a motorway to pick up pennies. Labour would be taking a very big risk (seeing their majority cut or eliminated) in return for a meagre reward, retaining or adding to an already adequate majority.
Still comes down to what benefit Brown gets by going early and what the downsides might be. Even with a reduced majority he has his own mandate, doesn’t have to do a referendum and will push Cameron into opposition for 4 or 5 more years.
Downside is that if he does poorly then the questions will start on whether he’ll stand again having thrown away a strong majority and even if he says yes the assumption will be that there’s a possibility he will not and the next leader discussions will start again destabilising his term. Small majorities are difficult to manage and Brown will not welcome Cameron’s support getting stuff through so will not be master of all he surveys but will need to cajole his party.
“There fore I expect Brown in his next weeks spending review to increase IHT to £500,000 ”
If he does, it’ll be bliss to see the Daily Mirror have to slag him off for looking after the ‘rich’ toffs.
The press will turn on him big time if he steals one more flagship Conservative policy.
Matt.
A Saturday poll might offend Jewish voters; a better option for GB would be voting over Saturday and Sunday. I can’t imagine DC facilitating this now. If GB delays he might introduce legislation to that effect and dare the Tories to vote against it, I suppose.
I must say Nick’s analysis makes sense for Broxbourne because he’s very well organised. Judging by last night’s piece on Chester not all Labour MPs are similarly placed. Mind you as Casino Royale pointed out neither are the Tories in that constituency. They won’t be able to spend the Ashcroft money they’ve just been awarded if it’s November. Another reason for Labour going early, of course.
But the most important point from the polls is that there is no large-scale shift from the Labour vote to the Conservatives. Set against that are clear signs that the Iraq war refuseniks are coming back in numbers to Labour ( yes Mike I know they didn’t vote in 2005 but so what).
Also I would be gobsmacked if the LD vote in the two Party marginals doesn’t fall back, perhaps significantly. At the moment they look likely to collapse over to Labour much more than the Tories. There may, however, be a regional dimension with DC picking up more of these votes in the South. One reason why Nick’s colleagues in the South may not be quite as keen as he is for November.
Those three factors suggest a winning position for Labour if a GE is held now. It’ll be crucial to see whether the Tory Conference results in the Tories getting closer to Labour in squeezing the LD vote. More important whether at last they can get stuck in to the Labour vote in a serious way.
Labour’s vote share this weekend is the key indicator. Below 38 it looks red to me. 38-9 is greenish but a bit risky. 40 is definitely green.
First he was going to announce it during his own conference speech, then it was going to be this Tuesday for November 1st, then this coming weekend for November 8th and now according to the BBC Gordon may wait until another weeks polls and call an election on or before October 16th.
Nobody has noticed that Mr Cautious has already delayed enough to lose two possible dates already and I am certain he will just carry on dithering.
208. I admit Cameron’s photo opportunity with Kinnock and Foot, then Cameron’s flying out to Iraq during the Labour conference was not the real deal.
Look, let’s be honest here. I am no supporter of New Labour but the fact is that Gordon Brown has NEVER said or even hinted that he would call a 2007 election. This hysteria has been whipped up by media types to boost circulation and by mischief making Tory politicians.
There never was going to be an election this year so let’s calm down and let the Prime Minister get on with the job of running the country as he was elected to do.
215. hahahahaha (on so many levels)
marcus you can’t have it both ways
Calling during Tory Conference = upstaging Tories and palying unfair
Not Calling = Bottling it!
215 - a joke post I assume.
215. Great spoof
212, preventing the use of the Ascroft money could be a big factor in the GE calculations…
Bank of England rates unchanged - no present for GB. Well done Mervyn King.
215. “neutral” observer:
Hello Gordon!
re several. For the avoidance of any doubt here is Schedule 1 of the Representation of the People Act 1983, as amended
Part I
Provisions as to Time
Timetable
1. The proceedings at the election shall be conducted in accordance with the following Table.
Issue of Writ In the case of a general election, as soon as practicable after the issue of the proclamation summoning the new Parliament.
Publication of notice of election. In the case of a general election or by-election, not later than 4 in the afternoon on the second day after that on which the writ is received.
Delivery of nomination papers. In the case of a general election, between the hours of 10 in the morning and 4 in the afternoon on any day after the date of publication of the notice of election, but not later than the sixth day after the date of the proclamation summoning the new Parliament.
Delivery of notices of withdrawals of candidature. Within the time for the delivery of nomination papers at the election.
The making of objections to nomination papers. In the case of a general election or a by-election, during the hours allowed for delivery of nomination papers on the last day for their delivery and the hour following; but—
(a) no objection may be made in the afternoon of that last day except to a nomination paper delivered within 24 hours of the last time for its delivery, and in the case of a nomination paper so delivered no objection may be so made to the sufficiency or nature of the particulars of the candidate unless made at or immediately after the time of the delivery of the nomination paper; and
(b) the foregoing provisions do not apply to objections made in pursuance of rule 15(2).
Publication of statement of persons nominated. In the case of a general election or a by-election, at the close of the time for making objections to nomination papers or as soon afterwards as any objections are disposed of.
Polling In the case of a general election, between the hours of 7 in the morning and 10 at night on the [F2 eleventh] day after the last day for delivery of nomination papers.
Computation of time
2. — (1) In computing any period of time for the purposes of the Timetable—
(a)a Saturday or Sunday,
[F4 (b)Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, Maundy Thursday, Good Friday or a bank holiday]
(c)a day appointed for public thanksgiving or mourning,
shall be disregarded, and any such day shall not be treated as a day for the purpose of any proceedings up to the completion of the poll nor shall the returning officer be obliged to proceed with the counting of the votes on such a day.
(2) In this rule “bank holiday” means—
(a)in relation to a general election, a day which is a bank holiday under the M1 Banking and Financial Dealings Act 1971 in any part of the United Kingdom,
(b)in relation to a by-election, a day which is a bank holiday under that Act in that part of the United Kingdom in which the constituency is situated,
but at a general election sub-paragraph (b) and not sub-paragraph (a) of this paragraph applies in relation to any proceedings—
(i) commenced afresh by reason of a candidate’s death; and
(ii) extending, by reason of riot or open violence, beyond the time laid down by the Timetable.
F5 (3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
F2 Word substituted by Representation of the People Act 1985 (c. 50, SIF 42), s. 24, Sch. 4 para. 73(a)
F4 Sch. 1 rule 2(1)(b) substituted by Representation of the People Act 1985 (c. 50, SIF 42), s. 19(5)(a)
F5 Sch. 1 rule 2(3) repealed by Representation of the People Act 1985 (c. 50, SIF 42), ss. 19(5)(b), Sch. 5
215 - Media types do not invent stories. This has been briefed by Brownites as sure as night follows day.
Most of us would be happy if the PM got on with running the country, rather than running to Iraq to re-announce troop withdrawals. The man is a fraud.
” Brown or Cameron? Who cares? It’ll make bugger all difference. ”
Disagree…
Eu Referendum
Inheritence Tax
ID Cards
Help for those who have lost thier pensions
Human Rights Act
On all of the above plus much more, Labour and Conservatives have very diferent policies.
Make your choice, simple as that.
…and if it doesn’t really matter, then at least consider giving Cameron his chance to make a different. You can then boot him out in five years if he fails.
Labour have given you 10 years to decide.
Matt.
Something else all party’s have to consider with regards to an autumn election, is the Diana Inquiry. Its clear now that the tabloid’s are going to make a HUGE deal about this, and will be leading on it day in and day out. This could quite easily overshadow the message’s that Labour/Cons/Libs want to put out there, IMO.
I mean, personally, I don’t understand the obsession with her, but obviously she must still sell newspapers and the politicians will have to factor this into their election plans as well.
and I forgot to mention that with the postal strike in full swing next week HM will have to (by Order in Council) set another way of issuing the writs to the returning officer other than by post.
214 Indeed, Cameron pictured with Geldof&Co as it suits and then jetting off to the huskies to complain about global warming and proposing taxes for you and I marks him out as a unique man of integrity. Give it a rest.
“Bournville Observer @ 141,142 re big bet on 2007 — £4-5,000 asking for 1.57 suggests a punter or trader reading the market. Anyone with real insider knowledge would back it off the boards, taking whatever prices are offered for a sure thing.”
John L. Thanks for that. Perhaps, the market is now attracting City types for whom £4k. is neither here nor there.
226. Perhaps Brownshirt will try to cash in on the Diana story too by ordering a public inquiry - that would really get the Express voters on his side.
215. “neutral” observer:
Hello Gordon!
Damn!! How could you tell it was me?
226 - Possibly. I find it tragic though that we could have an inquiry a year into Diana all coming to the inevitable conclusion that it was an accident and still no-one would believe it. This inquest is a colossal waste of time and money.
202. “Brown is the EVIL, malicous, dictator that many of you are saying he is.”
Jake,
I agree!
Ann Coulter FFS LOL! Just reading this thread and spotted the P Riddell link. My eye was attracted to the other link … Ann Coulter. Her solution to America’s problems? Stop women http://timesonline.typepad.com/comment/2007/10/ann-coulter.htmlvoting!!!!!
I am diametrically opposed to her, but in many ways I think she’s fabulous! Her dissection of Paxman was a hilarious and long overdue flattening of the self-important posturer.
230. Well Jeff No 10 did release a statement on the sacking of Jose Mourinho, praising his contribution to football….
Clearly it was an otherwise quiet day or someone in NO 10 is a f**king idiot with no sense of what their job is actually about.
Neither party benefits from an election now, neither does the country.
Sorry that Ann Coulter link about stopping women having the vote is:
http://timesonline.typepad.com/comment/2007/10/ann-coulter.html
Please don’t for a second think I agree with her. She’s just amusing … in small doses!
235. I was only half joking - remember Blair’s weighing in on the Glenn Hoddle affair? What on earth was that about? And of course who can forget his intensively rehearsed, nauseating TV tearfest when Princess Diana died?
So what would be considered a good result for the Tories?
Bearing in mind that Labour gaining 20 seats and 4% in 87 was seen as a disater and gaining 40 seats and 3% in 92 was also seen as a disater?
I’d say under 35%/36% for the Tories and less than 240 seats!
238 - Yup New Labour do this all the time, exercising a right to speak on matters not the remit of a govt and a right to silence on matters that are. Notice Gordon only came out of his home when Northern Rock savers stopped queueing and went home.
239. A good-ish result for the Tories is getting the Labour majority under 25 seats. Even that will give Labour 5 full years, and with a possible election straight after the Olympics give the Governing Party a huge boost, it could be argued that this election is for 10 years …
If Labour win a majority of 25 seats plus it will be just fine for them. Brown will get on with the job perfectly contentedly.
From Austin Mitchell’s blog:
“High noon at the last chance saloon. Make or break time is Tuesday. Announce a 1 November election then, Gordon, or forever hold your peace. Don`t go early and there`s little point in going next May or October. Might as well sit on into 2009. If things don`t look good then May 2010 for the bitter end.
For Going – Bounce. New start to be notified. Tories still divided. Libs drifting into irrelevance. Things can only get worse. Not to seize the moment will mean growing regret. The grumbles and erosion, inevitable in a ten year government, will resume if we don`t grab the moment.
Against- Labour lead may be soft or evaporate as in 1970 (though that had been prefaced by 6 years of failure – today`s by 10 of success).. Bankruptcy. Fear that we can`t increase majority.
Gordon`s a cautious man. But got a streak of Wilsonian cunning. The Tories have given him the perfect excuse by challenging him to go.
Grab it, Gordon. Go. Go. Go.
The Party`s ready
The Media squared
And all the Unions well prepared
To wait means you`ll regret it
So Go Go Go. And get it.
(Anon)”
It sounds as if the momentum for an election now is unstoppable.
FT Mathew Engel
“However, there is no question which of the two main parties have had the better fortnight. Blackpool has been positively vibrant compared with Labour’s wretched apology for a conference.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/832093e0-71f2-11dc-8960-0000779fd2ac.html
(hat tip Dave Bartlett ConHome.)
241. Rubbish. A majority of 25 seats is a disaster for Gordon. And you know it. For a start it means he almost certainly won’t be able to ram through contentious laws - like the EU Constitution.
It’s just a major headache all round.
Moreover, this is different to almost all other general elections cause we are only two years into a government and he has a healthy majority - and there are no pressing issues making it necessary to call a vote (except maybe Europe, but I am pretty damn sure he won’t make that the overt reason for going to the people!).
If he comes back with anything under his present majority the whole thing will just look silly , pointless and a waste of time: to extend his tenure by two years at most.
If he goes down to 25 seats that would be a Labour migraine.
201. “But nationally? If Labour are so better prepared how come in their top 12 LD targets you only have candidates selected in 7 of the 12″
Labour don’t seem to value the “early selections” strategy so much. IMO it’s a mistake (even if they managed to hold some marginals last time even if they got the new PPC quite late), especially in some areas. There’re some seats where sitting MPs announced their retirements months ago to allow to have a new candidate in place early and still no selection have taken place yet even if the CLP is actually ready, but the regional party and/or the national one is slower
One reason why the Election will not be on a Saturday (or a Sunday, come to that) - most of the Polling Stations will already be booked for something else. Primary Schools rent out space in order to make ends meet, Church Halls get used for weddings, and so on.
That’s amusing. Peter Riddell posted on Guido’s site this morning to him a bollocking about misrepresenting his views on a November election. I wonder if he read the other comments.
Nick Palmer is uncharacteristically bullish, probably because having now plumped for an election he would seem to be backing off if he cautioned against it.
Labour needs much more than a 4% lead to risk a poll, for the following reasons…
I think a likely result is Lab 38%, Con 34%, Lib 20%
Wells gives:
Con 214 (+16)
Lab 360 (+4)
Lib 48 (-14)
Baxter gives
Con 214 (+16)
Lab 362 (+6)
Lib 44 (-18)
Which for once both agree pretty well. Let’s take the average of both:
Con 214 (+16)
Lab 361 (+5)
Lib 46 (-16)
However, I think that the LDs will hold on to the following seats against the trend because of LD incumbency effect: Camborne and Redruth, Bristol West, Chesterfield, Hampstead and Kilburn, Hornsey and Wood Green, Manchester Withington, Rochdale, Solihull, Somerton and Frome, Sutton and Cheam, Taunton Deane, Westmorland and Lonsdale, Eastleigh. That takes 7 from Lab and 6 from Con, and gives new numbers:
Con 208 (+10)
Lab 354 (-2)
Lib 59 (-3)
In my opinion, in the current climate the above result would appear to be a minor Tory advance and therefore victory. Gordon Brown would have taken the country to the polls in darkest November and spent £100m just to get basically the same result at a time when it wasn’t needed at all. This would be seen as a total waste of time and therefore a failure.
In summary, he needs to do better than the above in order not to be judged as wasting everyone’s time. A 4% lead isn’t enough, he needs at least 5% at the polls, which means he needs a bit more than that in opinion polls (which still always overstate Labour).
46. Casino Royale - even more hilarious in that programme was Paxman & Co’s drift of discussion onto Stanley Baldwin and the 1923 “snap” election over tarriff reform. Of course he did go on to win the so-called “Red Letter” election the following year so perhaps the precedent does not bode so well for the Tories after all …
248 - MBoy, if the Tories scored anything like just 208 seats, then Cameron is toast.
Why do people think the Olympics would make another Labour term in 2012 more likely? Based on Euro 96 and what happened the following spring, I would say it would make very little differance. One the public are set on throwing a government out, they will throw a government out. Olympics will make very little differance, IMO.
Mboy @248, a marvellous construct, but on completely arbitrary foundations that you have just made up to suit yourself.
To begin with you have ‘found’ an extra 4% for the Lib dems that no-one else has, then you selectively apply UNS to everyone except LD’s. You have compounded that with adding seats to an already inflated LD vote on the basis of an unproven incumbency factor that you imagine only applies to LD MP’s.
I bet you’d be great at writing business plans!
Redflump - I don’t think so at all. Cameron would have been caught by an opportunist dash to the polls backup up by a cynical combination of rushed out Iraq withdrawal, spending review, health service review, etc, during Brown’s best bounce. For Brown this would be the perfect storm, and it’s clear that Labour only started considering that they could go to the polls when it looked like 3-figure majorities were back on the cards. If Cameron can come out of that (and the LDs) with anything like the status-quo I think he is well safe.
To listen to some posters here they have taken a Titanic position on the election prospects of Labour. If Gordon is the ship captain and steams full speed ahead on this I suspect a lot of Labour MP’s could be left clinging to a piece of wreckage watching the ship go down.
247 - is he still at it after his public humilation on newsnight
Marcus, ICM last had the LDs on 18%, and they usually put on a few % during the campaign. As for holding against UNS, well they’ve done that in every election recently too - as you discovered in Torbay…
248 - Would there be any incumbency effect in H&K? Teather’s Brent East vote, insofar as it’s purely personal, won’t transfer to Ed Fordham - who doesn’t currently hold the rest of the seat.
253 - I’m sorry but I don’t agree with you at all. Cameron needs solid gains for him to say “one more heave” next time. To leave an election with just 208 seats is an abject failure for the whole Cameron project. This is a government in it’s TENTH YEAR and 4TH TERM - and Cameron does worse in seats than Michael Foot? No, he’d be out on his ear.
248. ” I think that the LDs will hold on to the following seats against the trend because of LD incumbency effect….Hampstead and Kilburn”
did I miss Glenda defecting to LDs?
259 Maybe its notionally Lib Dem then..
We need a huge countdown clock to show the number of seconds until its too late for a 2007 election - I guess we could have another 12 days of this speculation ?
260 - It is on some notional estmiates - but that also means any incumbency effect is non-existent.
260. No incubency effect anyway as there’s no LD incumbent to contest the seat
251. I think there would have to be come kind of political catastrophe for the Tories to prevent their winning in, say, 2012 (if they lose this autumn).
That will be after 15 years of Labour government. The pendulum will be vigorously swinging the other way - the sheer boredom factor, the sense of give-the-other-team-a-chance, the distaste for one party rule, all will combine to make a Labour defeat almost inevitable, I’d have thought.
Also, if we are to believe the Labour posters on here, by then we will have experienced some rocky economic patches (they have to come in the end) puncturing the one main reason Labour have done so well since 97 - their handling of the economy.
I can’t see anything but a Conservative victory the NEXT time around.
anyway betting
should we expect the C4 poll later, whatever its numbers, to kick off some exaggerated swings on various betting markets?
when was the last time a single poll had the potential to influence markets with such immediate effect, or will punters keep their heads, steady as she goes?
I included Hampstead and Kilburn because I think Ed Fordham is one of the most fearsome campaigners I’ve seen.
264. Yeah. Agreed. You can’t stop the political cycle anymore than you can stop econmic cycles or the weather. Has any party ever achived a 5th term in British history? I’m not saying it couldn’t happen, but its highly, highly unlikely. Olympics and all.
264 seanT. That also depends on the strength of the alternative government on offer. The punters will not IMO elect the Conservatves unless they look like a government in waiting with a PM in waiting too. The voters will stick to the devil they know as they did in 92.
264 - if in that time we’ve managed to drag the tories into accepting the social model like their european counterparts, I can live with the pendulum.
267 GIN. Labour had never managed a full second term until 2005, let alone a third term. Records are there to be broken.
266 MBoy “I included Hampstead and Kilburn because I think Ed Fordham is one of the most fearsome campaigners I’ve seen.”
The notional 2005 figs from ukpollingreport show a 1k Lab majority and since then there has been a major swing from LD to Lab.
The LDs are wasting their time and money there. You need to defend Lynne instead!
266. wasn’t he responsible for Jody Dunn’s blog during Hartlepool byelection?
250: ‘…if the Tories scored anything like just 208 seats, then Cameron is toast’
I think not. The fact that Cameron ought to have been allowed another couple of years to reform his party, develop his policies, make himself known to the electorate etc. means that most will be sympathetic if everyone isn’t yet rushing to the polling stations to give him mass endorsement. That’s the problem for Brown: if this election is called I think it will have a very weird feel about it, and if things remain much the same no one will know quite what to make of the result.
268. The consensus from the commetariat yesterday - from the Guardian to the Indy to the Telegraph - was that Cameron does indeed look like a PM in waiting. Many used those very words.
He’s also got the makings of a heavyweight Cabinet. Hague, Davis, etc. Even Osborne will have gained in gravitas in a few years.
I think the Tories look like a party ready to govern right now; unless they stupidly implode they will be fine come 2010-2012.
269. What is the “social model”?!!
273:
Oops, only the ‘ought’ should have been italicized there.
I agree with roger- from discussions with potential middling/affluent floating voters IHT is very popular indeed- this will be reflected in the next polls, and Labour’s private polls.
So I fully expect kleptomaniac Gordon to raise this to 500k on Tuesday
Interesting comment this morning from Matthew Paris, that the Lib Dems reresentatives at their conference appeared older than the other two parties. I think he is right about this.
Think this is becoming a real problem for the Lib Dems, they do not seem to be replacing their ageing population, if this continues they will slowly whither away.
Suggest they have not been recruiting enough from the under 40’s over the past 15 years.
They need a burst of youth at all levels.
271. I would be surprised if Lynne Featherstone is not returned
274 seanT. But do the voters concur. Recently Cameron’s polling rating have tumbled in line with his parties. If he gets a conference bounce will it be sustainable ??
If Ed Balls and Bob Ainsworth are the calibre of MP you need to form a government then even the Lib Dems are in with a chance..
261 and after that has passed it’ll be February? March? April? May? June? then Autumn 2008 or Spring 2009? Autumn 2009 or Spring 2010? until it’s finally Spring 2010.
About Autumn 2008 there would also be speculation on whether Gordon would serve a full term if he won in 2010 and we’ll be posting on the Milibands v Balls v ?
Then there’s the Ming succession….
aaargh…
HF: Martin Baxter gives Hampstead and Kilburn to the LDs with a majority of 611.
269. What is the “social model”?!!
http://www.etuc.org/a/111
or just search google and find about the european social model and choose any of the 1/2 million hits!
seanT @ 274 re looking the part — Cameron and Osborne look too similar and too young. Cameron needs to be pictured more with Davis or Hague to give him some bottom.
And Brown needs lighter or striped ties, or someone to teach him how to do the thing up. He now has the clean hair, bespoke suit and newly aligned gnashers but the ark, shapeless tie lets him down.
269. I love the way left-wing types use the term “social model” as if its a qualitative thing. There’s a whole spectrum of levels at which you can have spending on government services and just because you don’t want a French 60% of GDP going through the state doesn’t mean you don’t accept that government funded healthcare/education/welfare are a good/necessary thing.
280. I saw Bob Ainsworth on TV the other night, and I thought he came across as intelligent, well-informed, and convincing.
Nice hair, too.
274 - “I think the Tories look like a party ready to govern right now; unless they stupidly implode they will be fine come 2010-2012.”
Disagree, they still don’t quite look the part yet. They still have to keep this momentum up and still need to deal with the next contentious issue within their party, whatever it will be
However, for the first time since probably 1992, the Tories look fresher and with more ideas than Labour. For once, I could actually imagine the current shadow cabinet in positions of power - even George Osbourne.
Yes, Labour could win a fifth term, but to do so they will have to appear fresh and buoyant - in short, they’ll almost have to reinvent themselves to do so.
(FWIW, I reckon Labour in 2010/12 could become like the Tories in 1993-97)
264 Surely that would depend on size of any Lab win this time. If it was a maj of 100-plus (not a prediction, before people jump down my throat, merely a hypothesis) then the most likely worst-case scenario for Lab in 2012 would be the biggest party in a hung parliament
234/237. The scary thing is that many Republicans in the US are stupid enough to take her seriously. Liberals foolishly get mad when the people she’s ripping off are the idiot hardline conservatives who buy her books and lap it up whenever she says something outrageous.
Just realised I’ve contradicted myself. Can we have an edit button on here please?
266 272, Yes Andrea the “fearsome campaigner Ed Fordham” seems to have let slip through on the blog the infamous comment about the voters that they were “either drunk, flanked by an angry dog, or undressed’”
Labour put it on the leaflets.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/g2/story/0,3604,1314105,00.html
MBoy is that fearsome in the sense that the Lib Dems fear the damage he does to them?
283. I think the “social model”, thus defined, is accepted in virtually every developed nation on earth. It’s called modern capitalism.
God, lefties are boring. And vain. Give me strength.
279. I think the only reason Cammo’s pollratings fell was because he dropped out of sight when Brown came in, bulldozing everyone - this gave Labour the chance to spin the line that Cameron was posh, insubstantial etc etc
Yet when the voters see Cammo speaking they see an eminently reasonable, perfectly papabile Tory leader.
The key for the Tories is to keep the Ponceyboots in the Picture and then they will prosper.
282. “Martin Baxter gives Hampstead and Kilburn to the LDs with a majority of 611. ”
Wells gives it a 1134 Lab majority and T&R a Lab majority of 474
We probably never know which one was the best one
289/234/237
I agree with hr and have posted so.. The only thing she omits is that wimmin should not work and not be allowed to write…:-)
As far as any GE is concerned, here I am in marginal (after boundary changes ) Staffordshire Moorlands. The only candiate with any leaflest is Conservative.. last week. From the sitting Labour MP? Not a cheep.
Looks like one marginal could be a loss to Conservatives if UKIP don’t poll as well as last time.
I think cahnaces of a GE are :
290. Don’t worry - lots of posters do it all the time. Try reading some of Roger’s posts.
The issue of how well the LDs can buck the trend is something that could make a big difference. I believe there is already a private bet running on Hornsey and Wood Green, but if there has been a big movement from LDs to Lab then even seats such as Southwark could come into play. Will Labour inclined voters be inclined to vote tactically to help the LDs in LD/Con marginals ?
One other point with all the how many seats scenarios, with the boundary changes labour starts around 346 and the tories 220 so this should be the baseline
292 - glad to see you accept the social model, much better than the US way of doing things. Congratulations on your wisdom.
Anyone wanting to back against a 2007 GE, the 11/4 available on Hills for it not to happen is better value than laying on Betfair.
292. The key for the Tories is to keep the Ponceyboots in the Picture and then they will prosper.
So the secret weapon at Tory high command apart from the ashcroft millions is “Ponceyboots”
They might as well break out the champers already
Lefty posters here need to understand the difference between winning the argument and being joined at the debate.
300. Rightist posters need to learn the difference between joining the debate and winning an election 15 years
People are greatly under-estimating target seat, tactical voting…
It’s a known fact that the Conservatives have pumped their target seats with alot of money before election spending rules kick in.
The fact is MH in 06 gained so many seats, not due to an increase in voters or swing, just simple targetting.
I predict Tory gains to be around 40. It’s a total guess, given we have no real stable opinion polls for the moment.
I mean in the last 15 years. Leftist posters can also suffer from poor standards of literacy and numeracy learnt under a tory government.
300 James. No. All posters need to understand that winning the argument isn’t enough … but winning is !!
Politics is the game, winning is the name.
301 - There is a vast difference between winning the battles and the war. Lord Cornwallis in the 18th Century would be able to tell you that having won every battle in the War of Independence and yet America still gained independence.
Cor Jack you should be on the wireless with that kind of stuff, mate!
What time is news of the Ch4 poll expected?
(Please don’t reply “7pm, on Ch4…”)
297. The United States is a rare exception. The Conservatives in this country have accepted universal healthcare etc since the end of the Second World War.
297. Have you ever actually BEEN to America? I have. I go there a lot. It’s the richest big country in the world. Lots of people with nice cars and large houses. They seem quite chirpy to me, despite not having the “social model”.
I’ve also been to the poor bits of America. South Central LA. Harlem. The nuttier parts of Chicago. Rural Texas. Even the poor bits are… how shall I put this… really not that bad compared to say East Germany, the rust belt of France, Naples, Swindon, and that hideous bit southwest of Glasgow.
Americans work harder than we do, so they earn more; they pay more for their medical care, but they have a better health system.
This piffling stupid juvenile lefty sneering at America, based mainly on bigotry, ignorance, envy and personal insecurity, is one of the many embarrassing and odious aspects of leftwing thought.
I note it is not shared by your dear leader Gordon Brown, who loves America. Que pasa?
Chamelerloons ‘Big speach’ flopped and it flopped big time! What a tory twit! ‘Dave’ fimnally revealed himself as the upper class tory toff he is:- who else can afford to go to the sort of school where they teach you how to memmorise a hour long speach?
Osbourne to flopped big-time… whay a greedy, bad and cunning man:- taking inheritence money of poor foreign teachers and child-carers and giving it to people about to spend a million pounds on a house?!? Sick I tell you sick!
Gordon has his foot on the tory throat and is posed for the kill… Go Gordon Go! Send Thatchers words back to haunt her and “grind the bastards into the dust”…
306 reg. Thank you …. a rap on Radio 1 beckons !! …. however I draw the line at that cathode ray tube thingy.
310 on the money as always Brian
all we need now is for Adrian Harper to give us his take on things
Tony Benn apparently would like to contest Kesington at next GE
298 Conversely, for those who believe the will be a 2007 GE, Betfair’s current backing odds of 0.54-1 are twice those of Wm Hill’s 0.25-1
310. I guess you’re a socialist… Fortunately Gordon Brown doesn’t have the guts to say anything to Thatcher and invited her to Tea instead….
315 Brian is one of the better spoof posters on PB
There is a big difference betwen winning the war and winning the period.
Not to mention the difference between winning the period and winning the age.
Which pales when one considers the difference between winning the age and winning History.
Onward Gordon for a Labour Past ,Present and Future multiverse !!!
(providing Saturday’s polls show a 3%+ lead)
re 261 4th December is the date you need. That would mean a GE on 31st December.
309 calm down sean dear,
I prefer the european model to the american, how you turn this into a quantum leap of “sneering” at america based on “ignorance” and “envy” is hilariously over emotional. I also prefer democracy to iranian theocracy but that does not mean i am bigoted against iranians.
Incidentally, I have also travelled in the US. To be honest it is stating the obvious that they have very wide inequalities. To witness soup kitchen queues and the lack of public infrastructure in rural areas tells me we do things better.
276. If Labour does increase the IHT allowance, will this not leave a large hole in the accounts, or will a levy be imposed on those claiming non-domicile status to make up for it?
On the next poll, I’d say the chances of a November election will be about ten times the Labour lead in it i.e. if it’s a 1% lead, there’a a 10% chance, if it’s a 5% lead, it’s 50-50, if it’s a 10% lead, it’s nailed on.
On Lib dems and tactical voting, I think this could turn out to be a very big issue at the next election.
The last three elections have had a big element of ‘keep those nasty tories at bay’ voting intention - I have to say this was a self-inflicted wound in 2005 by choosing Howard and lurching but there you go.
I just don’t get the same sense of urgency from the non-right leaning general public to keep us out at all costs.
Cameron has the benefit of being seen as a reasonable, likeable person who -however hard Labour attempt to attack him, is non-threatening and reasonably competent.
298.
Thanks for the tip about William Hill’s offer of 11/4 for no 2007 election. A very easy way of balancing the books.
As you say, why lay 1.45ish on Betfair when Hills are offering 11/4.
re 298/314 well if you can back on Betfair at 1.52 (65%) and back against on WH at 11/4 (29%) that surely means FREE MONEY everyone. Or at least for those who can do it during the day.
I see SeanT has taken over the mantle of Cheerleader supremo today! Some particularly amusing comments being made, and the one about Labour winning a 25 seat majority being ‘a disaster’ for them is hilarious.
Listen, it’s simple. Win the election by enough to govern. That’s all that matters. All that ever mattered. All that ever will matter. Around 25 majority is plenty given the fact that the oppo would need to assemble the entire minor party conglomerate to push things close.
There is a school of thought that the bigger majorities cause more headaches for the whips because it tends to invite rebel causes.
319. What a lot of cobblers. If you want to see poor people queuing for food in Europe I could introduce you to some homeless people near my flat, in Fitzoriva. They could sort you a tenbag, as well, if you like.
You just talk narcissistic drivel. You like to think Europe is somehow superior to America cause it narks you that a vibrant capitalist economy like America does so much better than most “social model” countries.
I read somewhere that the GDP per head in the POOREST state in America (Tennessee? something like that) is higher than the GDP per head in all but a handful of EU countries. A truly startling statistic.
Again, I note the fact that your dear leader seems quite keen on the American social mode, despite your fastidious dribbling. Workfare, anyone?
lol
310. You sound like a bitter, twisted class obsessed, hater and socialist. Rich people and private enterprise GENERATE money this country badly needs - your labour voters SPEND and WASTE our money for their own ends and expensive pet projects. You lefties are the nasty people who demand more and more for doing less in your nice comfy state sector jobs while entrepreneurs (of all political persuasions) have to be on the ball all the time, bogged down with more and more regulations and unwanted red tape. I am sick and tired of haters like yourself who don’t understand anything outside of your Kier Hardy marxist text books. PS I’m no Tory but detest the left.
320- David- what a good idea!!
320 don’t kbnow about the next poll, thik Brown will wait until Sunday to have private & public polls.
Odd though that”informed sources” he said he would make decision last weekend, then Tuesday, now weekend. Waiting for Godot more entertaining than Waiting for Gordon.
O/T a glimpse into the Home Life of Our dear Leader
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/227191/brown-rage.thtml
320 2nd Para - clever and neat, David. But I’d like to suggest instead 15% for each 1% poll lead, i.e. a certainty at 7% or above.
326 - Kier Hardie wasn’t a Marxist - indeed, he was never much of a theoretician.
New thread - “Will Dave be part of tomorrow’s media narrative?”
328 - Then the next weekend, then hte next. At some point he is going to have to stand the troops down or send them over the top. The longer he has them on red alert the more fractious they will become and the more irritated the fourth estate will become.
325 - You just talk narcissistic drivel. You like to think Europe is somehow superior to America cause it narks you that a vibrant capitalist economy like America does so much better than most “social model” countries.
gee, with such amazing insight into how people think and their cognitive frameworks, why don’t you seek an alternative career reading tarot cards on psychic tv, maybe your own end of the pier show, i’m sure it pays more than the minimum wage.
Stick to the arguments. I’ll take the standard of living here, or in France, Germany or Denmark over the deep south any day. Even cameron accepts quality of life matters.
Not sure I like the tone of this lefty bashing to be honest. Do we have to descend to that level?
It seems to me that the only difference between the 2 parties is that the Tories have thought of a rather cunning way to reduce inheritance tax- an idea that Brown is probably going to unashamedly follow.
Other than that the Tories in opposition have not one single policy that differentiates them from Labour, and Labour one policy that differentiates them from the Tories. On every bit of mainstream policy they are the SAME. Repeat THE SAME. There is not even fox hunting to get upset about now.
309. Knew it was too good to last. In case you havent noticed Sean one of the major issues in current US politics is the fact that a large proportion of the population do not have access to healthcare and that many of the overall health statistics are on a par with much poorer countries. Dont want to get into to a “europe good US bad” argument but it does seem to come down to everything is great in the US if you can afford it.
292. A little late, but I don’t think Cammo’s poll ratings didn’t fall because he “went out of sight” in August. His approval rating was only -10 then. After his good early september it was -22.
I think it’s more because people began to see him as ineffectual, inconsistent, lightwieght and prone to coming up with policies they didn’t like.
As of last week he had a satisfaction rating of 23% and a disastisfaction rating of 45%. That’s interesting becasue before that, while Cameron hadn’t enthused annyone, (his positives were always in the mid twenties or thereabouts) he hadn’t enraged anyone either- his negatives were about the same place.
Now, some of this ws driven by the fact that a third of tory suporters were disatisfied with Cameron, After Conference I expect that number to go down, as he’s shored up support at his base, but the price will be increased polarisation- he’s nailed his colours to the mast much more firmly as a “proper” conservative, with all that entails. Myt prediction is that Camerons Satisfaction ratings will go up again to about -10 to -15, as Tories are happier with him, but that we’ll see more non-tories disapproving too.
And remember Brown’s approval ratings is +22. That’ll fall, but it’s a lot better as a starting point.
You’ve also got seats like Birmingham, Yardley where Labour still haven’t selected a candidate and have been dropping further and further behind in the local elections. In fact, two of the Yardley wards have seen no real campaigning from Labour since the general election and the other two have only had patchy campaigns around the local elections.
“309:Americans work harder than we do, so they earn more; they pay more for their medical care, but they have a better health system.”
To be fair, pretty much every developed country has a better healthcare system than we do.
The problem with the US system is they pay an astronomical amount for it when you total up public+private - something like double the % of GDP we do, and much higher than the likes of France/Netherlands/Sweden/etc, who tend to top worldwide health system comparisons.
340. The problem with American healthcare is the 40 million who are not covered, and the 30 million or so who think they are covered but get refused payment on technicalities when they actually have a problem. Their education system is equally atrocious with the poorest schools getting the least money due to the lack of tax redistribution from rich areas to poor area. These views are nothing to do with envy - the majority of Americans would agree that their healthcare and education system is a shambles. The problem is the political system, which is fragmented, gridlocked and far too much in the hands of special interests; and also the news media which is superficial, lazy and in some cases prone to extreme bias beyond anything we see in the UK.
However, that being said, many of the problems of not having an adequate social model can arise from having one that is too bureaucratic and deters investment and reduces economic growth. This is what we see in many parts of France, where Algerian ghettos rival the worse parts of LA.