Has Harriet conceded that London is lost?
May 2nd, 2008
Is this bad news for Ken?
After reading Stehert’s comment on the previous thread I’ve just watched the GMTV morning news when it looked as though the Labour Deputy Leader, Harriet Harman, was conceding defeat in London.
When pressed on the Mayoral race she said that she “did not expect the London result to be any different to the rest of the country.”
Certainly there’s been a lot of Tory celebrations and I was amazed that ConservativeHome was ready to call it for the party just after the polls closed last night.
We have not seen any hard numbers but the general impression is that there were signgicant increases in turnout in the out London Tory controlled boroughs.
Latest Mayoral betting is here.
Mike Smithson
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It’s not making much difference on Betfair yet.
From Today’s Metro (London edition) - page 4:
Metro exit poll win for Livingstone
“Ken Livingstone is on course for a convincing win over Conservative opponent Boris Johnson if an exit poll carried out by Metro yesterday is accurate. The poll was carried out in three London boroughs - the Labour stronghold of Lewisham, the Liberal Democrat-held seat of Brent East and traditional Tory heartland Barnet.
THe final tally showed the incumbent mayor taking aroudn 55 per cent of the vote. He won in Lewisham, Willesden Green and, despite coming second on first preferences, drew level when second preferences were totted up in Barnet.
Although scoring very well on second preferences, Brian Paddick took just nine percent of first preference votes in our poll… 18 percent of second votes [for] Mr Paddick. Sian Berry took 2.5 per cent of first preferences but the 15 percent of second preference votes bodes well for the Green candidate’s Assembly bid.”
2
as soon as Boris was selected I said he’d win, to general mirth iirc, apart from the omniscient Sean Fear.
well done BoJo, tough luck Polly, Heffer, Simon Jenkins et al.
4 well as I had a bet with Nick Palmer on BoJo before he was even selected I think I got there before you
Are we likely to get any hints at the result prior to it actually being announced?
2 - It’s still possible. But that poll is skewed towards Livingstone (Ken lives in Willesden Green after all, so he’ll naturally do well there) and won’t reflect outer London turnout at all.
I see Mike’s ability to find flattering photos of his subjects continues to know no bounds!
2. Unless done by a reputable pollster, I wouldn’t trust it. Apart from anything else, taking one Tory area, one Labour area and one Lib Dem-ish area to get ‘balance’ is a statistical nonsense unless there’s some clever stuff done afterwards. I’d have thought that including Brent as an area was asking for trouble?
re 6. I seem to recall from 2004 that the GLA results come first and we’ll a sense of the turnouts in different areas.
She certainly seems to have.
If Ken were to win it would put a little gloss on otherwise awful results for Labour, but were he to lose the word ‘meltdown’ could start being used to a reasonable degree of accuracy.
People scoffed at Yougov’s 18pt Tory lead, but in the locals the got 20pts ahead of Labour. That won’t be repeated in the general election of course, but it’s still a very strong sign for Cameron.
9 I sent you an email Mike.
re 8. I think that was from a screen grab I took of an interview with Harriet at the height of the her campaign donations problem.
Polly was effectively conceding this last night you could see her evident discomfiture.
The Conservatives held their seat in the by-election in Dumfries and Galloway yesterday.
Well done boris (hopefully)….but why was Portillo quite so negative about him last night? The 1st Conservative Mayor of London and Portillo could barely conceal his contempt.
15. I have a feeling Portillo had his eyes on it at some point.
Apparently, all the London local byes have gone with the GLA ballots to the counting centres, and will be announced at some point.
15, didn’t see Portillo. What did he say?
4 well done kingbongo, though I did too, I said it when he announced his candidacy. (need coffee). Maybe we could get a link to that thread!
Hooray! I love the smell of victory in the morning!
btw best moment of the night was question time when polly lecturing the nation about global warming was skewered by littlejohn telling the audience of her villa in italy…how does she get there he wondered. She was, alas only momentarily lost for words.
Harriet Harman’s comment could be read another way: as a claim that results will be no worse in London. If so, that is quite interesting in itself.
21 - It would be terribly hard for them to be a great deal worse wouldn’t it.
Just been looking at my April payslip. Being a high earner, I expected to benefit from Gordon’s tax cut for me at the expense of the poor, but even I have seen my take home pay go DOWN £7 this month.
So much for that then…
21 — Harriet Harman might not have a clue.
Tories gain Vale of Glam
20. She stumbled on but tried to change the subject. The thing is I can’t stand Littlejohn, can’t stand him. But he didn’t actually start the spat, she did. He just finished it, rather swiftly I might add.
As a less optimistic Tory than those declaring it for Boris on ConHome[shudder], how can they know?
Are their leaks from polling stations that put it so far out there that there can be no doubt?
I hope Toryhome is not scrapping cold omlette off its face at 7pm this evening.
22. Well, to me it appears they might have benefited from an ‘Iraq-unwind’ from the Lib Dems in some areas.
So any idea on when the next council will announce?
I most enjoyablenight. Thanks for keeping thing going so well Mike and Robert.
Award for most deluded comment of the night has to go to Geof Hoon in his assessment that it was a bad night for David Cameron. No crisis for Labour!!
Mike please can you please invite Bob Worcester and Peter Kellner for a q&a session if they are available this weekend ?
It should brighten up the long weekend ahead of us.
sky interactive poll has 94% saying brown must go now!!!
30. Really? He said that? He’s either deluded or being thick.
I think Portillo’s descent into bitching and whining is very sad. He was just ridiculous last night amid a great night for the Conservatives.
Trying to pretend that a 20% lead over Labour and ward wins from Bury to Sunderland was not good enough made him look as much of a clown as Hoon.
I was a bit dissapointed with Spellman not taking on Ed Milliband on his wierd idealogical point. I think the country has absolutely had enough of massive intrusive government and ‘tax and waste’ from Labour and she should have told him so.
22 - fair point, but everything is possible.
30- Hoon “The tories should be on 110%, without the alternate universe vote, how can they win an election?”
33 - The funniest part was when Dimbleby was skewering him and he pretended his earpiece was malfunctioning.
37. Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear. Hoon has gone from being quite a major member of the labour party to being a joke.
32. NNOOoooo!!!! Calling all Tories. Get on there and vote for Brown NOW!
This is Bloomsbury last night from one of the Girls, if it’s of interest.
Hello we’re both back home now, half an hour til the polls close, but
> others are finishing off the telephone knocking up as we started at the
> crack of dawn.. people very pleased to give their polling
> number, and smiling at the red rosettes - quite a few clearly wanted to
> communicate that they had done their bit and go Ken - and everyone at
> all the polling stations round here said they had a similar impression.
> Later on did knocking up round Fitzroy Square and Charlotte Street, and
>’ yes thank you we have voted we went specially this morning first thing,
> keep going you’re doing a good job’, people said,
> so that was encouraging too, though through thunder and lightning at
> one point as the heavens opened. But then the sun came out again, and
> I’m exhausted from walking for miles, but there are worse places to
> walk through than central proper London in the Springtime so it was
> nice, just i’m very tired from mentally sending highpitched urgency
> signals exhorting everyone i passed to just go and VOTE .. come on
> London you can do it.
Voting is more than just electing a candidate; the high turn-out is good news for our democratic system, whoever you’re supporting.
Apols if anyone’s already mentioned elsewhere, but can we clarify - BBC this am were saying the turnout was lless than 10% - bearing in mind the figures published here earlier in the week (about those saying they were certain to vote etc) does that lean it towards Boris?
sorry but re-posting from the previous thread;
3 observations from an exciting night;
1-JackW is as enigmatic as ever- his teaming up with Andrea looks to be a formidable combination. A lot rides on the accuracy of Jack’s exit poll.
2-Mike Smithson made one of the funniest posts ever- the imposter arrived to the scene when Mike said he was having his supper. Did the imposter know Mike’s supper habits?
3-The Beeb TV was appalling- but get yourself a small digital wireless, some headphones and go to bed tuned in to 5 live. Lulling in and out of sleep you keep up with the election, do not get overly tired the next day, do not keep your partner awake, it is simply wonderful incisive coverage, and no ADs.
The TV is dead- long live the radio.
4 - I thought Simon Jenkins was for Boris.
Rather taken aback by Portillo’s opening remarks on the awful BBC programme and notice it’s being used by beeb Tory “fans” - interviewer on Breakfast to Spelman - “Boris as mayor is going to be a real problem for you”.
Gave up on pb.c last night when it crashed. I blame the fool who said it’s quiet here, its usually buzzing by now (you know who you are)just before the deluge. Went downstairs to watch telly. BBC coverage drove me to bed.
Peter Snow was FAR WORSE than Vine. He believed what he was doing. I think Vine knows its complete rubbish.
Can anyone explain how Lab have lost 212 seats on Sky, but only 162 on BBC ?
32. Good point…we want McSporran to stay right where he is.
Must be “the kiss of death” from Harriet
She said Mr Brown is “absolutely” the right man to listen and to lead as Prime Minister.
“I think against a background of economic concerns really there is nobody with more experience and more commitment to take the country through,” Ms Harman said.
18: From memory Portillo said Cameron sacked Boris for good reasons, he wasn’t anywhere near their first choice, and Tories would be very nervous about whether he’d do something embarrassing as Mayor.
Haven’t read all the threads from last night, but can report from the Heanor results I was worried about with the big BNP effort - they did indeed take two Heanor seats (one of them they’d missed by just 15 votes last time), and missed the third where I’d spent most of my own time by ONE vote - so a bit of personal consolation there!
London - some of you will have seen my long and frank post from 11 hours of phone canvassing. Essentially I think we did get about 65% of our maximum potential vote out where we’d identified it, but we were hampered by sketchy voter ID in some boroughs. There didn’t seem to be either a pro-Boris or pro-Ken effect anywhere - people were simply voting on general ‘feel’ about the wider scene - so I agree with the comment that London is likely to follow a similar pattern to elsewhere, but on a higher turnout from both sides. I think Paddick will have been badly squeezed, and if the Tory GOTV effort was as good or better than ours - as posters here have suggested - then they should win.
As for the wider scene, a comment that I’ve not seen made often. The oddity about 2005 is that both major parties did badly - both 36% and 34% are ‘core vote’ results that normally lose GEs. The Labour London effort shows it’s possible to get the core vote out and I think it’s perfectly possible that Labour will get at least 36% at the next GE (yes, I know we got 24% projected last night, but that’s close to 2004 and you know what happened in 2005). But if the Tories get 40+%, they’ll win easily enough on that basis.
For a Tory victory not to happen, one of two things is needed. Either Labour needs to attract significant LibDem support in the marginals, or serious doubts about a potential Tory government need to emerge as it becomes a more immediate prospect, pulling them back towards their 2005 result. I can see potential for both (e.g. in my seat, there is an 18% LibDem vote and a Lib-Lab coalition locally), so Labour readers shouldn’t take the poison pills yet, but a bit of serious collective discipline and focus woud be a good idea.
Theres only one fact that matters this morning;
Con 44% Lab 24% Lin 25%
Brown has no legitimacy to rule this country. The country clearly don’t want him and he is staring a certain general election defeat in the face. These are the facts! Now, what are Labour going to do about it?
39- sally- do not get uptight about this. Brown will not fight the next election for Labour, get used to it.
I will be very surprised if Labour are third in votes when all the counting has ended.
They should be miles in front of the Lib Dems on votes in Greater London for example.
I worry about the BBC making such projections when loads and loads of seats remain to be counted.
I was also very surprised they ran that all night broadcast when it only covered some of the results.
The days of the overnight declarations are fast going, and as one who has had to attend those counts, good riddance.
Morning All,
(34) Personally I got fed up before midnight by the BBC’s efforts not to look bored (even Champagne Charlie looked like he couldn’t be bothered!), so I missed the Portillo stuff.
Does anyone have any idea what his agenda is? I like the guy but I’ve become increasingly bemused by his repeated insistence on This Week that the Tories cannot possibly win the next GE. Is it just that he can’t stand Cameron doing what he felt he should be doing himself?
Rob
51 - Portillo is his agenda, it always has been.
By the way, a general warning for punters especially: Mike’s protection against fakes won’t work for me as my email address is well-known. If I ever appear to post some surprising inside information (something I’m anyway unlikely to do) that would affect your betting, suggest awaiting confirmation. Come to that, if I seem to say anything wildly out of character, ditto.
47- Guy on the BBC show last night said that tactical voting by lib dems has been stitching from pro-labour to pro-tory.
Ooh BBC quoting Downing St ‘insiders’ saying Boris has won.
Sky reporting downing street saying there has been a massive turnout in the outer boroughs.
47. With respect Nick, you’ve just faced a 95/96 style drubbing in the face. You didn’t lose thousands of councillors because of the seats conested, but you certainly could have done on this vote share. You leader has faced no election from his party. No election from the country. And in the one electoral test he has now faced, he’s humiliated. You WILL lose unless you remove Brown, it has become inevitable.
53- Nick- you risk putting ideas in people’s heads.
(Nick Palmer Clone) I would like to announce that after careful thought, I have decided to……have a sex change. I would like you all to refer to me by my new name, Nicola Palmer.
All hail the moon god. Ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm……
Ian Gibson talking about the rejuvenating the party through nationalisation and union rights. That sounds like a winner. Not.
49. Nick, apologies for stating the obvious, but governments win and lose elections (except in 1992, when the opposition lost it more badly than the government did). If Labour is to win, it needs to get its act together and start acting like a listening and effective government with a sense of purpose and some idea of where it is going and why. Obviously, these things need to chime together (ie the public’s agenda is also that which is driving the government). I’m not convinced they can.
53. Nick, I know it’s a pain, but to guard against that would you consider using a different (brand new) email address just for this purpose?
I don’t know where the Lib Demsstand on seats. Not too bad judging by the comments on here.
But,this morning Today were reporting that their overall share [in terms of projected national vote?] was down a percentage point or two.
This may get lost in the media chatter, but I doubt if the LibDems will not assess this more critically privately.
You WILL lose unless you remove Brown, it has become inevitable.
They would definitely lose if they get rid of Brown, as that’d be the end of any party unity or discipline for the remainder or the Parliament. IMO, Brown isn’t the main problem: Labour simply doesn’t have a policy platform that can unite its 1997 coalition, and the electorate as a whole has lost trust in the govenrment’s capacity to deliver. Brown might not have a clue how to deal with this, but there’s no evidence anyone else does.
53. I thought the software check the computer id as well? If so, only someone in your office could impersonate you. If it’s only an either-or, then you’re right - and probably so are some others.
61 - When is your result due? Best of luck.
47. Nick, that must count as perhaps your frankest and least spun post ever.
Daid Herdson- it is incredible though looking at the quality of the Labour front bench now, as opposed to 97.
This is the weakest government team in my memory- reminiscent of the Tory shadow bench after 1997.
Brown, in ensuring that he got his hands on power with no election, also purged the front bench of any big hitters. His only possible rival was given the foreign office.
The Tory front bench is much stronger than Labour
64. But Brown has just been defeated severely in the only electoral test he’s ever faced. He has no legitmacy to run this country, from what I can see. The public quite clearly don’t want him. Even if it doesn’t turn Labour fortunes around, he should still go.
39- sally- do not get uptight about this. Brown will not fight the next election for Labour, get used to it.
by Tyson May 2nd, 2008 at 9:08 am
No. I won’t I tell you I won’t [putting fingers in ears lah lah lah lah ]
BBC: Brown to give interview in half an hour
71. Annoucing his resignation, maybe?
Oh God I have just seen Jeremy Vine with Nick Clegg in the wild wild west…I think I am going to be sick…
71 Could it be his resignation? !
72: I would hope he would wait until the London Mayor results for that
Yes, BBC was a glorious car crash TV moment.
Nick Palmer, you are Gabble’s more erudite but no less deluded older brother, and I claim my £2500.
63. As I implied above, I’m sure some of the votes the Lib Dems picked up over Iraq in 2004 went back to Labour, so it could have even been worse for Labour!
The Tory result in Southampton is sensational - when was the last time they controlled te city?
(68) Given the media exposure that ministers enjoy, I can’t remember a time when the shadow cabinet seemed more impressive man-for-man than the cabinet.
But you’re right, at the moment it’s true! And I really never expected to say that of a shadow cabinet containing George Osbourne.
4
I think Simon Jenkins backed Boris?
Congratulations to the Tories, commiserations to Labour, not bad Libdems you seem to have resisted the blue tide at least.
The curse of the third term has struck once again, Brown’s only hope of resisting it was a GE last October, he chose not to go, (against my advice) he will now suffer the consequences.
79- Acording to the BBC Election site…no idea. It was Labour controlled in 96,98,99, then NOC in the last 6 elections.
on second thoughts, resignation would be a courageous act!!!, Brown is like Jim Hacker in that respect.
84 (and others) - some gracious comments this morning, as members of the same little community here I think that’s worthy of respect.
79 Not sure of the facts , but pundits were saying there were special factors affecting Southampton
84 - doh, I meant 81.
68. I agree.
80. Labour 1995-7 probably were, though it was closer than it is now
66. The count is this morning. Result probably about 12.30, maybe later as a recount is a distinct possibility. Thanks for your wishes.
47, 57 Yes I have to agree - I just can’t see Labour winning under Brown. No good asking him to be a different person, change his character etc - wishful thinking - you might as well have asked Maggie T to become more like Florence Nightingale - not humanly possible, and the electorate wouldn’t buy it anyway. They have already made up their minds that Brown is not up to the job. Nick and his colleagues now have an opportunity to correct the error that was made when they chose Brown - if they seize it with both hands they will give themselves a fighting chance of holding their seats at the next election. If they don’t they’re sunk. Simple as that.
If Stonch and his flat beer blog are reading … doesn’t he owe Sean Fear an apology?
Has anybody seen Mark Senior? Hopefully this result will put an end to his nonsense of judging where the political stand nationally, on individual by election results!
90. Are the Worthing results out yet - they will be the key barometer for the nation, as Mark correctly asserted last year.
88. Cirrect. You know, I was amazed as Labour minister after minister trudged into the TV studio last night, and attempted to play down what was going on. Nick has done it on here. Are these people living in a differant universe to the rest of us? This election is up there with the most shocking drubbings in British political history. Just because Labour didn’t lose a couple of thousand of councillors doesn’t make the vote share any less horrific. The country has sent Labour a BIG message - Will Labour hear it?
How the Daily Mash sees the results
http://tinyurl.com/6e3×5k
Can I just plug my prediction qualities;
I said last night that the Tories would reach 45% of the popular vote;
I predicted last week that Hillary would win Penn by 10%
Not bad
I see Harriet Harman is adopting the same approach to the next general as Labour took in the mayor in that the Conservatives will be exposed, or that they will gaffe, or that something will come up.
71. It’s not impossible. Or a General Election announcement? He has no personal mandate and the media will run with this vote as being a rejection of his Premiership, further undermining and seeping away his authority.
2. Is this just made up/ a joke? I have a copy here and there is no mention of an exit poll. Also no mention on Metro website.
96 - Page 4 of today’s Metro (London edition).
the idiot blears now on sky. my god how could someone as stupid as her ever get into government
Firstly congratulations to PBers on the excellent overnight service and in particular to Mike and Robert for keeping the show on the road.
Remember folks, plenty more councils to declare today and counting has started in London.
Thanks to all for their kind comments to moi and Andrea …. we are to paraphrase CNN “The Finest Political Team Not On Television”
Have to say it’s squeeky bottom time over at ARSE and we prepare to face the music over our PB exclusive London Mayor Exit Poll …. reposted below :
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of the ARSE exit poll for the London Mayor
PISSED with added SOAMES weighting shows :
BORIS JOHNSON 56% .. KEN LIVINGSTONE 44%
……………………..
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN …… ..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED …Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
88-Gin- unfortunately I think that Brown believes that the drubbing is due to the poor economic climate (out of his control), and a hostile media (out of his control).
This is very much turkey with head buried in sand stuff- we all know the problems are much deeper.
I get the feeling that Brown and his coterie just cannot see it.
Brown is without a shadow of doubt the worst leader the Labour party has ever had by a country mile
95- I’ll give you odds of 100-1 that Brown doesnt announce either an election or resigns. (Maximum Bet allowed 1 pence)
Spot the contradiction:
We will listen more.
We will continue bravely making difficlut long term decisions…
(i.e no change).
I belive it’s called driving off a cliff.
And the economy is slowing down… it unfortunately can and will get worse.
95 - No chance he will resign, no election announcement he hasn’t been to the palace. He will just repeat the listening and learning mantra.
“9.38: BBC’s Carole Walker says Downing Street fears a Boris win resulting from high turnout in the suburbs”
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/
97. My London edition doesn’t have it. Perhaps a different edition? Can anyone else confirm they have seen it?
98-tenpole- oy, you- lay off Hazel.
Harman, Kelly, Cooper, Smyth, Jowell- fair game of course, but not Hazel you swine.
100 - Worse than George Lansbury or Michael Foot?
So no one knows why Sky are reporting an extra 50 labour seats more lost than the BBC?
Morning all.
For those with longer memories, how did the council elections in the mid-90s compare for sheer collapse in support for the government?
The tide has most definitely turned now, which not only permanently damages Brown but Labour as well. If he was to go, who could really replace him?
As for London, it might be better for Labour to hope Boris wins, because if Ken gets it, they’ll use that as proof they’re on the right track etc - which other results suggest they’re certainly not
106 Tyson sorry i didnt know she was so important to you. pls accept my humble apology
Repeal the Identity Cards Act of 2006!
Blears is just ridiculous. Is this all they have in the armous? ‘the Tories are now going to be judged on their policy and basically they have none anyway?’. Doesn’t seem to stop Magpie Brown from stealing Tory policy!
what about You Gov v Mori, has it been discussed?
99- Jack boy- something tells me you have called this one well.
If Ken wins well, an act of hari kari may well see the demise of JackW. And before he managed to reach his 106 birthday! Ain’t gonna happen though.
Blears now stating that people really don’t like Tory policy when they see it. Hazel pet, look at the results and hold your hands up. Incredibly stupid woman.
112- I remember her on the last BBC Election show saying all night “Labout havent had a meltdown blah blah blah, tories only on 40% blah blah blah” *OVER* and *OVER* and *OVER* again.
Boris creeping out to 1.27 - should his short-odds backers be a bit alarmed, or is value at that price?
I haven’t ventured a guess on London so far, but I think it is pretty clear that Johnson will have won. FWIW I share the Portillo that it is probably a moment of high risk for the Tories. Johnson will probably screw up, will sound too much like Cameron, and isn’t a moderniser.
109 - It is very similar, but the Conservatives were always second. The gap in 1995 for instance was 22% Labour went on to win the next election 2 years later. The gap last night was 20%, with an election due in 2 years….
“Labour and Tory officials are both privately predicting that the Conservative Boris Johnson will be elected mayor of London when the results of the mayoral contest are announced this afternoon.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/01/localelections.london08
90. If YouGov are right about the mayorals….I expect that Mark will be at home baking a large humble pie and delivering it to Anthony Wells/Peter Kellner.
Interesting to see who is rolled out on TV today I can’t abide Hazel Blears or Harriet Harman but at least they have come out into the light [not that either of them would give credit where were rolls versed].
Perhaps they are fighting their own corner with a reshuffle on the cards?
120. Cue articles in the Indy and Guardian about how the voters got it wrong and should be disenfranchised until they are re-programmed?
114 Tyson. Yup …. the big boys …. and gal pollsters are looking over their shoulders at my ARSE.
Me thinks the Japanese kithcen ware will not be required this time !!
107 Not sure about Lansbury but Foot at least had the support of quite a large swathe of the activists - the majority probably - and had been elected by the PLP after a contest. Brown has the support of a small number of acolytes in the PLP and no one else. If my CLP (in inner London) is anything to go by most of the activists are bewildered and angry at his crass performance.
If we are berating the BBC for a lack of numbers, someone on here should know why there is a 50 seat difference in the seat figures. 50 is quite a significant number, isn’t it ?
110- tenpole- a humble apology is just not good enough for referring to the sweet angel Hazel as an idiot. You must get a photo of her, frame it, and pay homage every day to the joy she brings to the world.
112– Chris Myers- how dare you call Hazel ridiculous! And never refer to her surname. Rude, downright rude to such a wonderful creation of chipmonkness.
Cheeky of the BBC to cut to Tony Blair!
117 Andy D. Easy money. Boris IS mayor !!
105 - I have sent you an email with the scanned article.
123 - The world wide diaspora of Hershamites salutes your pert peach botty (of a poll that is) to a man.
Referendum: Wheeler has won his case and has permission to apply for court order to force govt to hold Lisbon Treaty referendum (BBC News channel, breaking now)
117- value andy- people are cashing in on their profits happy I guess with their winnings
Am I alone (as Boris supporter) in finding the willingness of downing street to concede London victory (BBC: “Downing Street fears Boris Win”) slightly ominous?
More expectation management perhaps, or are my nerves simply frayed from watching the eejit in the Cowboy outfit making a prick of himself all night at the licence payer’s expense?
129. Thanks for that.
125 - The BBC probably have a higher threshold for putting up gains and losses so that they don’t have to adjust etc.
A great night for the Tories
A disappointing night for the LibDems
An embarrassingly awful night for the pathetic BBC
An even more embarrassing night for bitter,twisted whinger Portillo
A truly dismal night for Labour
Most of the media chatter this morning is about whether or not Brown should resign or should they attempt to force him out? I think he will hang on for the time being but with everything falling down around his ears and massive defeat staring him in the face at the next GE, I think he will do his customarily bottling act and resign (on health grounds?) beforehand. The Bottler has never undertaken a straight fight in his life and always runs away unless he is assured of victory.
As for Boris, he’s still on for the win by a margin of at least 4% IMO.
Well done Cameron, the country’s next PM!
130 John O. Thank you Hershyman. You’ll have noted the Jacobite blessings surged the blue tide to victory in wider Elmbridge and did for the repulsive one too !!! ….. as promised.
128/132 - cheers Jack W & Tyson, I will hold my nerve…
135 voxpox. 4% !!!! tish and nonsense. Some faint hearted Tory you are !!!!
14 - I was confident we would hold that seat from the minute Mark Senior said there was a good chance we would lose it.
A threshold making a 30% difference in seats - that’s some threshold.
A rather tired head this morning. Overall very good for the Conservatives, unrelentingly bad for Labour. As a Lib Dem I feel a certain satisfaction that, agaainst expectations, we seem to be ending up slightly ahead. Good results in Colchester, Cheltenham, St Albans, Hull, Gosport, Exeter.
As far as London is concerned, I think Ken could well poll more than 10% above the national poll rating for Labour… but it still won’t be enough. “For what we are about to receive….”
135 I think Brown will be gone by the Party Conference, and possibly sooner.
Can somebody with their finger on the pulse tell me when we will hear about North Tyneside? (If) the Conservatives have taken it then it will probably be one of their headline gains no doubt.
Voxpop: Have you been drinking bong water? A “disappointing” night for the LDs? The LDs beat the government into 3rd place and gain councilors, and you think that isnt a good result? Laughable. For weeks nearly everyone, especially Tories, have been saying that the LDs will lose at least 50 seats. Heck, even most LDs thought they would lose net seats! Most LD activists will be chuffed this morning, I can tell you that…
142 - Not a hope.
100 Tyson, I’m sure you realise that Brown is mad. He’s probably as mad and as deluded as Hitler was in his bunker as the Red Army were entering Berlin.
Brown is also an inveterate coward though and will bottle it before the next general election. I’m sure he’s already lined up some nice little number at the IMF or suchlike.
Picked this up from Ben Brogan’s blog
‘final cute word to Fraser Nelson on the Beeb just now who pointed out that Gordon Brown lives in a Lib Dem constituency in a country run by the SNP and works in a town about to be run by a Tory.’
Goodo.
There was a lovely house in in Highgate (Haringey) with an LD poster in the window - and another saying save London from Ken - urging everyone to vote to get Ken out. I really hope so!
142. Who will replace Cameron as PM when he has to resign in 2011 after losing 300 seats in the local elections?
GIN, Brown has every right to stay as PM until a General Election hasto be called by law. Just as John Major did in pretty much the same circumstances.
Whether he’s wise to do that is another question. I expect him just to mouth platitudes, but he could copy Major, resign and offer himself for re-election: the inner-party turmoil could hardly be worse and Cruddas/Denham would probably get enough MPs to nominate them this time. He’ll only do this though if he’s been threated with Cabinet resignations which is not impossible.
85 - Yes Southampton’s been a bit odd. The Tories ran a very effective campaign. After all, they were briefly in control after the last election, but then got kicked out by the Lib/Lab pact. This allowed them to say “a vote for a LibDem is as good as a vote for Labour”, which is a powerful message. Plus people felt there were unfairly removed from their elected position.
The most effective bit of campaigning was about parking charges. There was a report which suggested that parking charges COULD be introduced for all residents. Nothing more was done about it, but the Tories put it around that they Lib/Lab pact WAS planning this, but they would never do this. A very powerful message.
144 The Lib Dem share slipped from 26% under Ming to 25% under Clegg, if you’re not disappointed by that then you must be tripping
138 I’m not a die-hard Tory though I’ll be supporting them to get rid of this lying, thieving, incompetent Labour administration.
150 If he resigns and offers himself to the Party for re-election he would certainly lose. His position is that weak. My money would be on Johnson, but there are other possibilities - Straw, Denham, Miliband to name but three.
150 - Doing a Major, though, wouldn’t change anything. Perhaps it might pull Brown to the left, which would hardly improve his position against Cameron.
Has Brown come out of the bunker to make a statement yet? He’s supposed to be doing it around 10am.
He should be all tantrummed out by now!
Aside form the obvious congrats to the Tories, commiseration to New Labour ( although you only have yourself to blame), the Lib Dems did well in my view. Their vote at the last election was artificially high with the anti war vote which they were the main beneficiaries of. Now the war is no longer an issue they can be quite happy with the fact that generally they didn’t suffer from a sharp comedown.
Locally in Stockport they took a seat from Labour in the biggest council house area and unexpectedly lost to a Tory who spend more time in the pub than I do!!
Brown looks absolutely pole-axed.
Brown making his statement live on TV now. He looks like a washed-up, sickly old man. The usual nonsense so far….listening more…blah.blah
Brown just looks annoyed at the impertinence of the questions.
Gordon looks ill. Very ill.
Brown citing passages from ‘Courage’?
“Take country through diifcult times…. firm decisions… long term… difficult economy…. uncertainty… blah blah blah….”
No change there then.
Brown is completely flat and lacking in any conviction whatsoever. His spirit is broken. Making excuses now that none of it his fault, all the fault of the global problems etc
BTW Was that a nurse standing next to him?
The Times says turnout in inner London reached 45%, and in outer London reached 65%!!!! I’m just wondering if anyone ‘on the ground’ can more-or-less confirm these figures…. amazing if accurate.
Brown: tractor output slightly down… disappointing… courage, comrades… Oh, and it sounded as though he kissed Ken goodbye last night.
Gordon’s new tractor speech. Listen…lead….America’s fault…long term decisions…America’s fault….test of leadership is how you do in bad times…food prices…fuel prices….mortgages….still listening…still making difficult decisions…..still America’s fault…..
New SUSA Primary poll for Oregon :
Clinton 44% .. Obama 50%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=cd35ffc2-5d9f-4e83-9023-44d488d92aa3
[155] Tangent says doing a Major, though, wouldn’t change anything. Perhaps it might pull Brown to the left, which would hardly improve his position against Cameron - well, it would, since arguably his present position is to the right of Cameron’s
- if a Labour budget introduces the kind of tax changes that voters expect from the Tories, there’s a sense of betrayal among the base voters.
152: voxpop: not disappointed, not tripping, not over the moon. With the Tories on the up, a new leader who has sometimes made the headlines for the wrong reasons, lingering questions over the changing of leadership, and the supposed ‘big party squeeze’ which everyone tells us is going to happen, I think there are plenty of positives for the Lib Dems here, and although you can spin it either way, it seems like a very solid set of results to me.
Sometimes there is something in between ‘terrible and disappointing failure’ and ‘crushing victory’ you know…
165. oops, it was the Mail, not the Times.
I’m beginning to think that the exit from JackW’s ARSE last night may not be far wrong.
If nationally we are 20% ahead of Labour, then a 12% lead in Mayor could easily be on the cards.
Blears: ‘very disappointing’, shurely not!
169 - 10p was a gimmick to start with, though, which Brown has got caught in.
where i was canvassing in bexleyheath turnout was reaching 60% and not one person i spoke to were considering voting labour, all boris. of course some must have voted for ken but most surely should have been our voters!
170. “Sometimes there is something in between ‘terrible and disappointing failure’ and ‘crushing victory’ you know…”
Clearly you don’t work in the English media, Guv.
the gurning moron comes across as totally deluded. he has no idea that his policies are the reason they got spanked…..my god he is the greatest tory asset ever.
154- the only 2 possibilities for a pre election leader change are Straw/ Johnson. The young guns will bide their time
Actually I think Clegg’s had something of a result. Not stellar by any means, but he didn’t do too badly when measured against a high starting point. Not cause of jubilation but if I were a Lib Dem I wouldn’t be too worried.
Unlike Brown.
Guido is saying a Conservative Majority is evens. I can’t check on pbc. Some weeks ago it was 2.5 - free money.
Punters need to start looking at the long term signs instead of looking at weather vanes…
Listening to Blears is surreal. She has detached language from meaning altogether.
177, although Johnson’s a competent sort of fellow, or appears to be, he didn’t do too well in the deputy contest and is on record as saying he isn’t up to the job of PM.
Halifax have today joined the Nationwide in confirming that house prices have gone year-on-year negative. The bubble is bursting, the cycle has turned and we’re heading for 30 to 40% falls over the next 2 or 3 years IMO. The final plank in Brown’s debt-fuelled ponzi scheme has been pulled up. Belt-tightening is the order of the day for the years ahead.
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7378215.stm
Look at that graph.
180 - Clearly she lives in the heart of the bunker.
Blears seems to be trying to blame Ken for a possible Boris win on BBC. According to Blears it is the Labour policies alone that have made this a close race. Unbeleivable
170 Congratulations on knocking Labour into third place!
144/170
Also some good results in Cambridge, Derby, Exeter, Merthyr, NE Lincs, Sefton, Stratford, Warrington, Wirral and Winchester
137- Andy- thanks for alerting us to the Boris betfair drift- have just plundered enough to pay for a nice meal out later.
181, whoops, got confused between Johnson and Benn, I think. Johnson almost won the DPM position. Sorry.
184. What! It’s only because it’s Ken that the race has been close. Any other Labour candidate would have been blown away by Boris.
177 You may be right. Personally I hope not - I think a young gun might be just what we need - a young, optimistic new PM could transform the political landscape IMO.
177 Tyson, your “young guns” will prove to be more of a damp squib methinks. Remember GOATI: Govt of all the incompetents.
Listen guys can we just lay off Hazel please. Enough is enough
Morning all
Just a quick thought or two before I concentrate on the day’s main punting activity at Lingfield.
An excellent night for the Conservatives, no ifs, buts and maybes. 44% looks an election-winning number (highest since 1992). For Labour, disastrous. For the LDs, not as bad as I feared. We seem to have fought a good defensive campaign in some key areas and got some good results.
I’m astounded by Nick P’s candour and optimism and always have been. He does raise the not invalid point that the closer we get to the GE the more Tory policies (such as they are) will be put under scrutiny and rightly so. I think the tax and spending policy looks very iffy and could easily be derailed by global economic conditions while there is much else about the Tory programme we don’t know.
I’m all for the dance of the seven veils approach and I’m sure seanT can enlighten us on where that’s best done and by whom but for the rest of us we have a right to know what to expect. Cameron will of course rely on an anti-Labour feeling to carry him to power but the more thoughtful voter will have questions that will have to be answered.
[184] Watever happens, Ken will have massively outpolled the Labour level nationally, so she is, sadly, talking self evident nonsense.
Meanwhile I have just noticed a couple of other good Lib Dem results and am now feeling decidedly chipper.. the second cup of coffee is also helping of course…
108 Simon9999 - imagine Sky is putting up the results as they come in from people on the ground - as a good new organisation should whereas BBC are so slow on their site reporting results that one must assume there is only a part timer waiting for results on council websites. BBC really need to sharpen up their act.
152. Voxpop, Loads of results to come in yet!!!!
On the basis of what have been announced Lib Dems have done pretty well against the Conservative swing, Cheltenham, Winchester, Eastleigh, Exeter etc. Will be interesting to see how they fare in South Lakeland and Solihull, gains last time at the General.
Some indicators there that they could hold most of their seats against the Conservatives in the General. Big test is the Assembly votes in their South West London seats.
188. No I don’t think he did, did he?.
You said you were not up to the top job and you didn’t win the Deputy spot would be played over and over. He could get away wth it if Labour were strong. But its fits too well into the ‘they are out of talent, scrapping the barrel situation’ now.
40 - well said, hatfield girl. High turnout should be the joint aim of all politicians, and they can all take credit that they got people to care.
42 - One of my favourite posts followed the impersonator being rumbled, and finished “I’m tpfkar and I approve this message”. Very droll!
ON TOPIC: The Tories had a near perfect evening (just Worcester?), and Labour had as bad a night as I imagined in falling to third place. I think the 20 on Brown to go by the end of June is good value on Betfair, in fact I’d take anything above 14.
The Lib Dems had a pretty disappointing night. Well done on making second place, but that took a perfect storm to destroy Labour. If you lose a lot of money, it doesn’t make it a good day just becuse someone else lost more. Their local figures *were* inflated by the Iraq War in 2004, but not so much when they got 26% under Ming. To fall below that implies *at best* ineffectual leadership.
The LDs always do much better in Local elections than the General. Had they chosen a good campaigner inclined to attack Labour as much as the Tories (ie Huhne or Kennedy again) then the government would be in serious trouble. As it is, the Tories are doing their bit, but the Lib Dems are not taking advantage. I think someone needs to sit down with Nick Clegg and explain that he needs to change the game plan or go. For me, he is an Iain Duncan Smith when what they need is Newt Gingrich - not necessarily attractive, but agressively confident, good at opposing the government, and capable of delivering electorally.
190-nickc- problem is that they are all too calculating, and will not have the guts to walk Labour into a possible, career destroying, election defeat.
Better to leave that lovely task to kindly Uncle Jack, and then look to take over in 2010 when the dust has settled.
195 they spent all their money on calamity clegg and the neanderthal nonsence on bbc election coverage.
I hope PB’ers will ring the beeb to complain about the awful election coverage (as I have) I retuned to Sky and did not return to the Beeb
08700 100 222
196. Ummm… didn’t the Lib Dems fail to take Winchester though?
It does get worse: “Tony Blair has made Time Magazine’s list of the world’s top 100 influential people, but current Prime Minister Gordon Brown is conspicuous in his absence.”
Weather report from Docklands:
expect blue skies over city and east.
As far as I can see, the discrepancy between the Sky and BBC figures on Labour losses is a Sky mistake. They seem to have got confused by the new Shadow Unitary in Durham and taken them as 67 Labour losses. I am happy to stand corrected, however…..
Why do Labourites always knock a few points off when discussing their poor opinion polls?
196 I’m delighted you pushed vile Labour into third place and you are clearly heading for some localised triumphs but your 25% share of the vote (a drop from 26% last time) must be a bit disappointing n’est ce pas?
178 Spot on - and welcome from someone I would normally think of as a partisan tory.
Personally delighted that our local LibDem councillor retained her seat… despite Cameron (local MP) actually doing a bit of personal canvassing for her Tory opponent in the pubs!
http://www.oxfordmail.net/display.var.2242072.0.election_full_picture_in_west_oxon.php
“I love coming to Charlbury, I can be lauded everywhere else and be high in the polls, and you lot still never vote for us” –DC
184. Interesting that Nick Palmer gave a very different view of the London election to Hazel Blears.
199 - Tyson - if Labour replace Brown with an obvious ‘caretaker’ leader, they’ll lose even more heavily come the GE. The narrative will be - rightly - that they’re not actually trying to win. Very destructive.
The real problem the Labour have right now is that their young guns are no more capable than their greybeards. Could anyone, for instance, watching Ed Miliband last night be even slightly impressed by such mediocrity?
who is dave hill? currently on sky talking shite and bigging up brown. he come across as a deluded brownite cheerleader
http://thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/london_mayor/article1117514.ece
is this in relation to average poll or actual votes??
How long before the LibDems realise they are the new 2nd party?
207. Ed Milliband doesn’t pronunciate (sp?) enough, his words run together terribly, that plus he talks in a very dull voice and sounds like a sixth former.
198 Heard the latest from S Wales? Torfaen has gone!
It is worth noticing that in some parts of the country, Labour actually DIDN’T do that badly - looking at the North West, they took liverpool to NOC, lost no seats in Preston, won 2 in St Helens, 1 in Bolton, 4 in Pendle…some important marginals in that neck of the woods. Does anyone know if they did even worse there in 2004 and now making up ground? That said, they still lost ground in Knowsley, Wigan, Wirral, Bury etc. (I’m not a Labour supporter, but interesting to see those that buck the trend)
Is it official that the LDs have held Liverpool with the defection of an independent?
212 - Core vote areas though.
177. Yes.
207 No. Only if they were dumb enough to say it. I find it hard to believe caretaker tag or not that Straw could go lower than Brown he might well save a few dozen Labour MPs
Beware of judging junior cabinet ministers too much. A major reason that they look rubbish to you may be that you have seen them develop from new MPs, but I would say quite a few are now genuine high-achievers, with experience under pressure in the job (which counts for a lot of course). The reason incoming cabinets seem impressive (Lab ‘97 was mentioned, as well as Con ‘08) is that they start with a real electoral success, and are judged on rhetoric and uncosted promises alone.
p.s. should I be flattered that last night’s impersonator used my name to claim a CERTAIN VICTORY FOR KEN?
211 - and when you get past the poor delivery, what he says is not worth listening to. Him, his brother, Mr & Mrs Balls, and the others… if this is what Labour has in the pipeline, they’re in real trouble.
214 Seems like some they gained seats in some core areas but had poor results in others - Sunderland, Nuneaton, Durham, Salford. Perhaps just the ever quotable “local factors”.
212 Liverpool was NOC for minutes until a newly elected Independent joined the Lib Dems - wonder if he/she campaigned against them?
Note they lost West Lindsey which was somewhat trumpeted when they won last year. Otherwise not a bad night for Lib Dems - no advance but not hit as hard as last year.
211, enunciate, I think. Or pronounce.
Hmm. Ed Miliband’s one of the less odious young guns. certainly preferable to smirking schoolboy David Miliband or my future MP (damn safe seats) Ed Balls.
Wouldn’t it be a good tactic for Labour to play down expectations in London?
I don’t think it is over at all, although Nick Plamer seemed fairly pessimistic. I’m amazed if the London vote really is about the national scene. Dont they realise the Mayor actually has real powers. This isn’t some impotent council.
218 Wasn’t the independent already on the council from a previous election? Labour defector, I think the BBC said.
219. Ta, thought it was wrong but didn’t have time to check.
I may be mistaken but it looks like a pretty dismal night for Plaid too. Reading through the results seems their PPC in Ceredigion lost his seat which I guess will cheer the LibDems whether they beat him there or not.
220 - His first prefs will be more than 24%. There is only so much trend bucking he can do.
As a bit of an aside - I’ve been fascinated by the interactions between this site and betfair overnight on the mayorals. Granted this morning’s news suggests a bet on Ken is a long shot to say the least, but at one point last night before we had any clear figures on turnout Ken was at 6/1. Given the influence of PB.com and this website effectively calling it for Boris, I wonder if this has been responsible for pushing and keeping Ken’s price artificially high.
When you look at the lack of liquidity on betfair it wouldn’t take much from an optimistic tory who hasn’t had his/her fingers burnt like Mike admitted to (hence his ban on election-day bets) to have used ConservativeHome’s call and this site’s call to lose a bit of perspective.
Disregarding the facts we have heard since, I would have said that Ken’s 6/1 price at around 11.30/midnight last night would have been worth a shot if you had a bit of spare cash around…
What’s my point? I guess it’s just that a bit of learning that I’ve taken from watching this site over the past 24 hours is that, come election night, it might just be worth betting against a prevailing pro-Tory viewpoint on this site as the judgement of posters may be somewhat clouded - it’s very much a political site as much as a betting site and yet it appears to have a big influence on betting prices…money to be made from this somewhere!
220: It is standard Labour operational procedure to give the impression they are losing to make a victory look better. I don’t think that’s the case here though.
220 zietgeist is to rid the country of these disgusting, lying corrupt labour politicians……… nothing else matters.
220 - Clearly they do and have no desire for four more years of Ken wielding those powers.
Does anyone know anything regarding ballot box stuffing rumours?
I havent seen any news reports.
North Tyneside - counting now, none of the marginals declared yet, but the swing in the seats that have declared looking very good for the Tories.
2 great Cons wins in Barnet and Hammersmith by-elections….
[135] - “I think he will do his customarily bottling act and resign (on health grounds?) beforehand. The Bottler has never undertaken a straight fight in his life and always runs away unless he is assured of victory.
…
Well done Cameron, the country’s next PM!”
Just to point out the obvious, but if Brown did “bottle” and resign before GE, the next PM would be Labour (Straw? Milliband?) and certainly not Cameron, who has the support of less than one-third of MPs in the current Parliament.
O/T It will not fly but the High Court has agreed there is a case to consider on the Lisbon Treaty challenge from Mr Wheeler.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7379610.stm
Can I flag up an interesting trend of the Tories doing well in some very deprived parts of the South coast as I think the ability of the Tories to attract the white working class vote could be crucial in deciding if DC gets a majority.
In Havant the Cons took Warren Park (which is I believe the 5th poorest ward in the whole country). Ok its in David Willets Havant constituency but this is a very deprived area, part of what was once the largest Council estate in Europe.
In the Paulsgrove ward of Portsmouth (where they rioted a few years back) the Conservatives also won, again in an area dominated by Council housing and where the old Labour MP (Syd Rapson) still lives.
In the Kent/Essex marginals (maybe even the Hampshire marginals looking at Soton today) these votes could give the Tories a massive boost.
224 - Labour got 26% in 2004 and Ken managed to win fairly convincingly.
I think there is a lack of talent in both Labour and Conservative parties - the latter disguised by the present narrative, but will become apparent by the latter half of Cameron’s first term.
Politics is less attractive as a career than it was a generation ago, let alone before that. What governments can do is far more circumscribed, and I doubt that more than a quarter (tops) of voters think that any ideologically-driven solutions will produce the Promised Land. Add to that the increased salience of the race issue (is there anyone on any front bench who doesn’t wish it would go away?) which cuts across what motivates most people to go into politics, and there’s no reason to be surprised that parties struggle.
For now, there’s a lot of positive projection onto Cameron. As there was with Blair ten or twelve years ago. People in deep doo-doo, then as now, will take a leap in the dark.
North Tyneside - Tories just gained the first of the 3 seats they need to gain a majority….
235 - Thats as may be but then the Conservatives were 11% ahead of Labour, last night that gap was 20%.
can anyone explain why BBC is saying Labour have won 1572 seats, a loss of 163 and sky saying they have 1573, a loss of 212? This doesn’t seem to be Sky having more results, there just seems to be a difference in whether they are classed as gains or losses
Any sign of today’s Evening Standard yet?
237 - and the second. One more to come….nailbiting time.
235/238 - … and the Conservatives had Steven “Charisma” Norris as their candidate…
241 - Iain Dale saying Conservatives have gained the Council.
218. Makes a complete mockery of the ward councillor system… You vote for an independent and the morning after she switches to the LDs and props up the beaten administration.
It’s time to bin this stupid system, in favour of big metropolitan mayoralties – my man is Ken but if Boris wins then that’s democracy in action. Look at our turnout compared to Liverpool’s woeful response from the electorate. What better advert for the mayoral model? Democracy and Boris will be the winners!
239 Durham would account for the difference quite nicely if for some inexplicable reason Labour’s seats there were counted as gains.
A number of points.
Living in the Northern Tundra, the elction coverage here didn’t begin until 12.30 as they put an awful Brish version of the Angela Lansbury “pensioner detective”themed programme on first. Nice one BBC Scotland. Then when the coverage does come on I agree that it was unspeakably awful. Much American telly in comparison to ours is poor but CNN on election nights or even (hold my nose)FOX is great and streets ahead of last nights dirge. How do we change this?
I thought the results would be poor but couldn’t see this coming possible due to focusing too much on events in London where there is certainly a bump in the vote due to the Ken Factor. The word from London though is that many party (Labour)activists simply stayed away from hoofing it round the doors due to disillusion with the direction of the National Party. I think this is not only due to policy and competence but also the length of time the party has had in government.
If GB stays as leader then I think Cameron is a shoo-in now. There will be increased chatter about a challenge now but it remains to be seen if anyone has more bottle then Gordon. The time of the dour presbyterians must surely have passed.
Lastly why is Johnson still 1.2? After last night even the Ken factor can’t overturn the swing away from the party. Or can he?
All seats in Durham were counted as gains by BBC.
234. My part of the country too, and I noticed the exact same thing. Portsmouth’s political demographics are particularly striking. Areas that used to be Tory (mostly the south) are now LD. Areas that used to be Labour (mostly the north) are now Tory. And the Labour party has simply collapsed.
225. Good post. Exactly the same thing occurred to me. One way that you *might* be able to cash this in is to lay Labour early to retain Crewe and Nantwich and then bet to an all green position when their price is driven out by developing Tory confidence.
BREAKING NEWS: Robert MuBrown has just declared iregularities in the election results and the local elections will now go to a second round. Local Labour-PF activists have been seen atacking Movement for Conservative Change supporters. French President just gave interview saying “There is no crisis in Britain”.
seems like the working class are slowly coming back to the tories after drifting away since 1992. i have no idea who will win london, everyone is saying boris but i am not sure. reports of quues at polling stations and certainly the one near me was very busy right until 10 pm last night which is unusual.
210. Because in the reality of national politics they are not.
Why does Simon Hughes always seem so smug and irritating.
stephen pound on sky. a better advert for the tories u couldnt imagine
247, many thanks. If its not a stupid question, why?
Historically The Liberals were always badly squeezed by a resurgent Tory party (think 1970 or 1979). So I guess they’ll be reasonably pleased by their vote holding up last night. Someone like Chris Huhne with a tiny majority at Eastleigh should be confident now of holding his seat at the next General Election.
Regarding Boris Johnson although I am no Tory it really is time sceptical commentators like Portillo and Heffer give him the benefit of the doubt and stop sniping. Forget past grievances the time to judge him will be in 4 years time.
BBC Website saying LibDem hold Watford. Thats a new result isnt it?
243 - yep, all 3 seats gained, and fairly comfortably at that.
SKY NEWS UPDATE: Boris Johnson “reasonably ahead” in count so far….. 10% votes counted so far…..
Sky saying Boris ahead with 10% counted.
Sky news saying after 10% of votes counted - “suggestion” Boris wins after second prefs by 52 or 53%
257- But then in 2007 it was LD 29 Everyone else 7
And, Labour LOSE Reading….
No the BBC is not counting Durham councillors as gains or losses, we aren’t counting them as either, although we are counting the council as a win (not a gain) - a glitch in Sky’s system seems to be causing them to count all the councillors in Durham as losses. Which at £20k a pop on expenses they most certainly are not.
Just read a resume of Tractor Man’s statement. I see he blames Labour’s electoral Chernobyl on “difficult economic circumstances”.
This is piffle. It’s also dangerously delusional piffle. Because if Labour really think that “difficult economic circumstances” are the reason for their historic unpopularity, then they won’t how to fix the problem - because that ain’t the problem.
Fact is, economic circumstances simply aren’t that “difficult”. The economy is still growing - and not even that slowly - about 1.8% a year. Not disastrous. Inflation is high-ish, but it’s not Zimbabwe. House prices are falling - by a massive 1% a year. Unemployment is still low. Etc etc.
Yes we are in an uncomfortable slowdown, and things might get worse (or they might get better) - but this does not begin to explain Labour on 24%.
No, I think the explanation lies more in: the non-election, cash-for-coronets, no Iraq inquiry, squabbling ministers, EU betrayal, crime and disorder, endless lies on immigration, 10p tax cock-up, wasted tax billions, and generalised voter boredom and contempt. And of course the premier’s dithering, arrogant, charmless incompetence.
That’s why Labour are tanking. Trust me, Gordo. “Difficult economic circumstances” my reoyal Cornish butt.
And wolverhamton down the tubes…
God, Martin Salter MP is annoying!!
And does he have the worlds looooooongest nose, or what?
254 - As good as Ivan Lewis’s performance last night?
246 - I was surprised that BBC Scotland didn’t have coverage from the start they have in previous years IIRC. Just glad I’ve got sky!
Cons have gained Benton, Collingwood and Killingworth on North Tyneside. That’s all they need, right?
264, bit OT but just read that Zimbabwe (as of early 2008 I think) is still the 10th biggest economy in Africa. Bit mind boggling really.
I’ve just seen Clegg on TV outside the district council offices in St Albans trying, very inaccurately, to spin that council’s result as evidence that the Lib/Dems were winning against the Conservatives.
In fact both the Conservatives and Lib/Dems gained in St Albans from the complete eclipse of Labour for the first time I can ever remember, and the Conservatives had a net gain from the Lib/Dems.
The council was previously balanced with even numbers of Lib/Dems and other groups at 29 each. The Lib/Dems had a net gained of one seat which gives them the slimmest possibly majority on the council but this was achieved by gaining two of the three seats Labour was defending. Against the Conservatives the Lib/Dems had a net loss of one seat (losing Harpenden East and Wheathampstead while gaining Verulam). And in the seats contested by both parties the Conservatives were two or three thousand votes ahead of the Lib/Dems. (The Lib/Dems gave an independent a clear run in a ward where the Conservatives hold the other two seats.)
The BBC have described the Conservatives had a net gain of three, but I make it two. I suspect the BBC have counted as a gain this year the fact that the councillor who was elected four years ago defected to Independent and the Conservatives won it this year, but in fact he resigned in 2007 and we got the seat back last year.
What is beyond dispute is that the Conservatives had a net gain of one from the Lib/Dems as described above, and took a seat from Labour in London Colney. I remember the last time the Tories won London Colney very well because it was the same night in 1987 when I won the first of my four terms on St Albans council - and a few weeks later Mrs Thatcher went on to win a general election by a landslide.
Labour lost every seat in St Albans yesterday, which I can’t recall ever happening in the thirty years I was in the thick of local politics in the district. They came, not just third, but a bad third or even fourth in seats like Ashley, St Peters and Cunningham which they recently held.
The Conservatives were not far behind the Lib Dems in wards like these -in fact a large chunk of St Albans wards which in the last parliament were Labour/Lib Dem marginals with the Tories nowhere now look like Lib Dem/Tory marginals withy the Conservatives close behind the Lib/Dems and Labour nowhere.
The Lib/Dems did do well in St Albans, with considerable help from the imperfections of “First Past The Post” which they scream blue murder about when they’re losers rather than gainers from it. This is the fourth consecutive election for St Albans council where the Tories have beaten the Lib/Dems in total votes but won fewer seats. However, I’m not in a position to make too much fuss about that because for all its many faults I regard FPTP as the least worst system.
But it was also a good night for the Conservatives in St Albans and for Nick Clegg to pretent that the Lib Dem advance in that council as having been at the expense of the Conservatives rather than Labour was disingenuous.
264 exactly sean. it is their sh1te policies that have caused the rout not the leader
Tories the biggest party in Birmingham now - and Labour only hold onto Barnsley by a single vote….
Michael Thrasher has done a piece on SKY.
He claims that they only party with good news is the Tories. He was very upbeat about them. He rebutted Clegg’s claims that the Tories are not making gains ‘up north’ saying they are quietly gaining seats.
He said there were no crumbs of comfort for the LibDems; they are going down in vote share at locals year on year and apparently they ‘rely on momentum in the locals’. He said they will claim things are OK with a few seat gains but privately they will acknowledge its bad.
For Labour….you can guess the rest
We will see. Our host was holding his tongue. Doecsn’t look as bad as it could be to me, but I am not privately a LibDem.
Anyone heard any further updates from the count?
263. That little red blob of Stevenage looks rather lonely on the map…
Martin Salter is an authoritarian cretin.
272, a postal vote?
There were two arrests made last night pertaining to attempts at fraud.
I hope the mayoral result doesn’t hinge on postal votes.
268 - correct. We held all our other seats so Tories now have 31 out of 60. Labour gained one seat back from a Lib Dem defector, so they now have 21 and Lib Dems 8.
Where can one find the (incomplete) results for London Mayor election?
150. But when John Major was getting comparably dire results like this in 95/96, he had at least won an election previously, so he had that mandate to be there. Remind me, what election has Brown won?
Cons gained 3 seats in Hertsmere. Didn’t realise they were counting today which maybe explains the abscence of posts from Sean Fear.
265 - Congratulations on the win in North Tyneside. A really excellent result for us there.
Looks like wolverhampton slipping to NOC…
[270] I guess all’s fair in love and war, but in the world of politics, piling up big majorities in seats you hold is not the way to win… and is as clear an advert *against* FPTP as you can have really. So the Lib dems seem to have played the game rather more astutely than the Tories in St Albans…and?
253. I think he comes across better than most politicians.
261. Is this a London-wide 10% or specific areas?
253 Because he IS extremely smug and irritating.
280 True Brown had no mandate and this set of results gives him a negative mandate.
Cowardice and conspiracy do tend to come back and bite politicians where it hurts.
285. London-wide, I think..
Wasn’t it said a few days ago that a big turnout in London would favour Ken? Well, we’ll see. But if the mayoralty is about national politics, why is the turnout so much higher than the risible level in most parts of the country?
How can sky get an indication of transfers when not all the first places have been counted yet.
It’s got to be a pretty crude estimate at this point.
Any news on Reading or did i miss it?
289 - More people want to oust Ken maybe, or keep Boris out!
Just thinking about Boris, doesn’t it remind people of the early speculation of a Kerry victory?
270 - An excellent analysis. I haven’t seen what Clegg has been saying, but it sounds like spin of the worst order. As you say, the Lib Dems took just one seat off the Conservatives (Verulam, my home patch) where the incumbent Tory had retired, and where the LDs already hold one of the other two seats. Frankly it would have been astounding if the LDs hadn’t managed to take the council.
For what it’s worth, I was surprised to find no detectable Ken bonus, as I said last night (if anything it was marginally negative). I think that we’d have a similar result (whatever it is) with any reasonable candidate, and it’s spin if Tories claim the result would have been even better for them otherwise. I like Ken and am not blaming him if he lost - he just got into the national picture.
in one key ward in a southwest outer borough turnout was not anything like 65 percent - estimated closer to 40 -45 which would be similar to local election figures - but high proportion of the Con vote came out - these are not final figures and are based on estimates - it seems there was a pattern of late voting which could provide some upside
maybe in some places turnout was up to 65 % but i would be surprised if the average was much above normal local election turnout
from Adam Boulton:
“About one in ten of first preference votes are in, and Boris Johnson has a reasonable lead in most London constituencies.
Much too early to be sure, but apart from the Ken and Boris struggle, look out for the BNP candidate Richard Barnbrook. He’s showing strongly.”
291 - Council leader has lost his seat, overall results still pending, I think.
292 - So it could buck the national trend.
Most people will know I want Johnson to lose, but I still think this is unclear.
Chris at 270. Where have you been all your life, politics is all about being disengenous, look what is put on this site!!!!
280 - If you believe what most Brown cheerleaders were saying before he took over, he was the strategic mastermind behind Labour’s win in 1997, 2001 and 2005.
293. No.
273. He’s right. On the surface last night was so-so for the Lib Demmers, but closer inspection presents a more troubling picture.
The Labour vote has collapsed but it hasn’t gone to the LDs (whose voteshare actually declined). It’s either gone straight to the Tories or to abstention.
Moreover, the Tories are resurgent - everywhere except Scotland. They’re making good progress in the North, and they are rampant everywhere else: mopping up white working class votes AND middle class burbs and shires. They also seem to be doing well in rich, diverse, multiculti London.
This is the LDs worse nightmare, a very potent Tory party, and a collapsing Labour vote switching, in part, straight to Cammo.
They could lose dozens of seats next time around. Their only hope is the usual strong LD incumbency effect. But this might not be enough in 2010.
299 - It could do, but really should just wait for firm results now rather than making speculation on gut feelings
289. It may be that the increased turnout in inner London was actually voters voting AGAINST Ken and Labour. Thats the pattern in the rest of Labours heartlands.
254. Pound supported Blears for Deputy. Says all you need to know aboout him.
295- Genuine opinion or part of the coordinated Labour Spin?
297. Even with only 10% of results in, if the votes counted are a “random” sample from all over London (which they appear to be) AND Boris Johnson has a “reasonable lead” so far, then, statistically, it is HIGHLY unlikely that the remaining 90% of the votes to be counted will have so significantly different a make-up as to overhaul this trend and give Ken victory.
This is effectively a very large sample exit poll and it shows a Boris victory.
I think this is over. I’ve just put another £100 on Boris….
305. Ditto the suburbs and Boris. We will just have to wait and see.
[303] you been at the cider again Tommy?
King said last night that the Tories have done best in Labour’s heartlands. A new day has dawned, Gordon. In case you hadn’t noticed. Spoken to Tony this morning, by the way?
Politics Home giving Reading as Labour Hold
295 I think the Lee Jasper debacle pretty much put paid to the Ken bionus and created a Ken negative to replace it.
306. it always strikes me as bizarre that an mp would prostitute themseles to such an extent and make themselves look totally stupid and corrupted
Think the Sky News figures are only first preferences. So it’s still conceivable that Ken wins on second preferences. Can’t see it though.
Wow. Look at this photo of Brown:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3859835.ece
Is that a beaten man, staring at a future of defeat - or what? He looks like one of those GIs in Vietnam, after a two year tour incountry. Indeed I think Vietnam war photographers had a phrase for this expression, of bleak and shellshocked resignation: they called it a “thousand yard stare”.
308- We should have a live vote count like the American primaries, you know something like…
MAYOR OF LONDON
Boris Johnson 456,277
Ken Livingstone 385,593
Brian Paddick 184,125
10% Reporting
[280] - Brown was a very prominent part of the 2005 GE campaign. It’s worth remembering that Milburn and co. tried to sideline him at first, but he was hurriedly brought back when the polls slid in response. Brown used up a lot of political goodwill helping Blair get elected for the third time.
312 - Labour lose Reading actually.
Stephen Pound being wheeled out to speak so its official - an absolute disaster for Labour. He says Cons will wake up with a “hangover” this morning when they realise how badly they have done.
308. “This is effectively a very large sample exit poll and it shows a Boris victory.”
Exactly. And the prices have started to move accordingly since that news broke.
312. Rubbish. Look at Reading Council website, or BBC News.
Labour have LOST Reading. Lost five seats already, three to Conservatives, two to Lib-dems.
Good chance Conservatives may become largest party there.
My friend who is a regular reader of pb alerted me that someone asked me to report back from the polling station in Cyncoed, Cardiff.
Apologies to whoever it was, I must have missed that post or had already gone to vote. It seemed pretty busy and the voting slip was easy to fill in. 10 choices (3 of the main 3 and one plaid).
It seems as though it’ll be all 3 Lib Dem once again though. At least no labour has crept in.
If it gets too bad then I can always retreat outwards to the new Tory controlled Vale of Glamorgan.
Regarding Merthyr Tydfil - I’m not surprised Labour lost it. The places is an utter dump (without being controversial) and I’m sure the people there want to do anything to turn their lives around. Although, the only part of it that surprises me is how mining-orientated it is so it will be seen as a big loss for Labour.
270, Clegg seems rather naive in his spinning. He should learn not to lie, at least not so obviously. Last night Vince Cable on BBC got the balance right. While highlighting the positive features for the Lim Dems he accepted the results were not good for the Lib Dems and gave some reasonable explanations why this was. It would seem Clegg is under pressure and is not coping well. How long has he got as leader to produce better results?
Morning all, haven’t had time to read all above, v. busy.
Spreadfair GE seats 326-326.5, no SPIN prices up.
Sizeable move back to Boris, now 1.17.
317. Did you make those figures up?! Or do you have a “mole”?
Won’t be a JackW landslide (I don’t think) but I think Boris will win in line with my original prediction of 53%/47%.
Have we ever had a situation like this, when the Prime Minister doesn’t have any form of mandate govern? Labours collapse in this years locals is comparable with their performance in 1968. Wilson won the general election in 1966, so he had a mandate to be there. John Major won a leadership election in 1990 the 1992 general election before his party collapsed in 1995 and 1996.
Brown has never won a general election and never faced a contest in the Labour Party. And has now lost an national election by 20%. Where is his mandate to be our Prime Minister.
Labour, what have you done!
ken 40
boris 44
sky news
317. Totally agree. Why can’t we have that? What’s this stupid vote-count delay for anyway? We should have machine voting, and realtime internet updates.
I hope the Tories bring it in, WHEN they are in power in 2010.
327 - He was giving an example, not any real data
New thread - Now can the Tories beat the bar chart kings?
239 - So Ken can still easily win with 2nd preferences?
Sands End by-election result (Hammersmith & Fulham).
Alexandra de Lisle Con 2257 57.55%
Brendan Bird Lab 1147 29.25%
LD LD 518 13.21%
Swing 2006-2006 3% Lab to C.
Until 2006, this south Fulham ward with large council estates had 3 Labour Councillors. The “on the day” voters in 2004 voted for Norris 41% Livingstone 33% (First preferences).
Points to big swing against Livingstone in inner London.
322. They’ve taken it off now, it was there a good twenty minutes though.
Boris price appears to be collapsing fast… But I’m out of money now!!!
This must be a 95%+ certainty now. NOONE anywhere on TV/Blogosphere elsewhere expects anything else…
303 No seanT I don’t think he is. LibDems are doing pretty well where we hold the parliamentary seat against the Tories. Much better than any of us had the right to expect. Look at Eastleigh, Colchester, Cheltenham - all places the Tories should be wiping the floor with us if they hope to displace LD incumbents.
Admittedly not a springboard for gains from them…
Kevin the Clown Mcguire on. Let’s see what gems he can come up with….none so far….
Brown dons a sack cloth… but he should take off the hair shirt? Eh.
2 years to go…lasts OK then.
333 - seriously, do you have a job or is it just to write these preposterous ‘updates’?
Grammar schols…grammar schools…and McGiure is gone.
Grammar schols…grammar schools…and McGiure is gone.
Getting very nervous about those second prefs. Between them, the Paddick and Green 2nd prefs… argh.. oh I dunno. Ooh look - the sun’s over the yardarm. Thank God for that. Up yours, Lenin. Speaking of God… ‘Dear God, er, remember me? I promise to be good for ever and ever and ever if you let Boris win.’
Decent lump offered at 1.16 .
Surprised the big boys have not started to buy money yet?
In 2004, Ken beat Norris 55-45.
The swing (over the whole country from 2004 to 2008 locals is 4.5% (Lab -2, Con +7).
If you apply 4.5% swing to the 2004 Mayoral result, it would give Ken 50.5%, Boris 49.5% this time.
I’m not suggesting for one minute that Ken has won. All I’m saying is it COULD be close. If Boris has won then he has got a BIGGER swing than the overall National swing. That’s very possible (ie less tendency for Con voters to back Ken).
Boris trading now at 1.11
Make that 1.07
Hague on Sky:
There are more councils in the north of England that don’t have a Labour councillor than don’t have a Tory and that was before these elections.
Reading:
Lab 20 (-5, 3 to Con to to Lib Dem including their leader)
Con 18
LD 8
World At One - will ask William Hague if the Conservatives have made enough progress in “the Great Northern Cities” to win a general election - the BBC obviously haven’t seen the Sky projections of a 140 seat parliamentary majority
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