Move over PoliticsHome
July 25th, 2008
The PB community wins the battle of the predictors
Above are the final predictions from Wednesday’s PB online poll on who we thought would win Glasgow East and the Politics Home panel of 100 “insiders” and “experts”.
Notice anything? Without crowing (well only a little bit) this was an overwhelming victory for the site over the PH100 which very much represents received opinion.
We can feel proud this morning.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Do politics home disclose who is on their list of so called “experts” ?
Westminster local concil by-election - ex-blur drummer loses to a 14.1% swing to cons! Itjust keeps getting better:)
Must-read paper on Geopolitics:
Iran consolidates position in West Asia
by Atul Aneja
Within the space of one week in July, Iran recorded two major successes in West Asia. Through skilful diplomacy, it upstaged persistent efforts by Americans to consolidate their influence in two theatres of conflict — Iraq and Lebanon.
http://www.hindu.com/2008/07/25/stories/2008072553091000.htm
2 - Obviously not such a charming man then!
2, really? That isn’t the berk who was on QT a while ago, was it?
2 — Wasn’t that the 2nd time he’s tried running for office? Maybe muggins will get the message now. (Oh, who’m I kidding?! He’s NuLab!)
“You smell that? Do you smell that? Gloating, son. Nothing else in the world smells like that. I love the smell of gloating in the morning.”
The PHI100 “experts” contain a lot of lazy journalists. They do not attempt to understand the polls or lead improvements in polling.
The BBC and Crick are typical of this bunch. The BBC Scotland had the resources to do a proper poll, they did not instead relying on an Englishman (Crick) to wander around interviewing a few jocks who took umbrage whenever he asked them about Brown.
That said the BBC by election programme was better than most they have done this year because it had some people on it who did know the area.
To be fair to Politics Home, the prediction of ‘a narrow Labour majority’ was only just wrong - it wasn’t far from coin-flip territory.
2: The Westminster result was interesting - a Bangladeshi-born candidate for Respect last time wasn’t standing this time, and there was only one Bangladeshi-born candidate this time - the Tory, whose vote went up by almost exactly the same amount. Respect to Tory is a big jump, but there was speculation on the Vote 2008 forum last night that this was a significant factor.
Apparently (according to the BBC ) Gordo is saying that the Govt needs to listen and understand” . I would have thought the message was fairly clear…
9 nice bit of spin Nick.
10. No action then - just listening ? What a dolt.
10 - That is his default bad result statement.
Joanne Cash has that seat (Westminster North) in the bag for the Tories. If you vote Tory at local level you are then used to voting Tory. It’s a great sign for the PPC.
On Labour home they were talking about Smith and Blears losing their seats and somebody said that Blears’ seat was not a marginal. Her majority is 8k. To my mind that is a marginal seat these days.
10. Yes those “people” only vote for their own kind. Nick opens up a new front to steal back some BNP votes.
“Pop quiz.
Pick out the “We Are The World” lyrics vs. Obama speech lines.
A: “We can’t go on pretending day by day that someone, somewhere will soon make a change.”
B: “This is the moment we must help answer the call.”
C: “But if you just believe there’s no way we can fall.”
D. “The world will watch and remember what we do.”
E. “Let us realize that a change can only come when we stand together as one.”
F. “We cannot afford to be divided.”
G. “These now are the walls we must tear down.”
H. “This is the moment when we must come together.”
I. “They’ll know that someone cares, and their lives will be stronger and free.”
Answers, here: http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTExNDljMTgxYTQ3MTcxM2FkNTBhOTJmNWViZjE5YWY=
14 That would be a great betting market.. How many Labour ministers will lose their seats at the next GE…
You know, gloating just because PH and their ‘panel of experts’ made complete tits of themselves is a bit childish.
Funny though.
Nur nur nur nur nur.
9. But for all the explanations Nick the real problem is that people are sick of Labour and Brown and want change. When it gets to that stage there is almost no chance of going back. The party is done for.
This is the message of the polls, the local elections and the by elections.
18. If PHI 100 wasn’t so self-important this wouldn’t be nearly so enjoyable.
Meanwhile GDP growth for Q2 was only 0.2%
@19:
Ahhh, but you’re forgetting the Broxtowe canvassing…
Congrats to the Nats for eventually sneaking it. I think it confirms that we are now in 1992-97 territory that no Labour seat could be held by them in a by-election and we are into a 1997 style meltdown for Labour next time.
It’s not just about Gordon Brown - a new leader would suffer from exactly the saqme problem - people are angry and tired with a government that has nothing new to say and that’s been in so long that it can’t escape the blame. No party has ever come back from this position. It doesn’t mean that no party can ever come back, but Labour hasn’t the talent, ideas or strategic vision to do so and will be routed in 18 months time.
It rather confirms the devastating private polling I saw yesterday. Any Labour MP with a majority of less than 10,000 should be polishing up their CVs…
re 10/12 surely it needs to take the “right, long term decisions”?
Anyone heard that one today yet, or is McCavity holed up somewhere?
The other point about the PHI100 is that they voted both ways - once for the SNP to win it, then switched to Labour winning it (on the back of the PSO poll I think)
http://www.order-order.com/2008/07/flip-flop-punditry.html
9. It was the difference between winning or losing though, whether that be the seat or a bet (on which point, thankyou SNP).
That round of clapping on Brown arriving at his conference is as bad as IDS’s at that conference(Talk about stage managed). Not sure why they were clapping him, slow hand clap maybe but clap???!!!
If i were Hutton i would resign from the Cabinet and challange.
17 - and what will be the “Were you up for Portillo” moment in the next GE? For me (please God) Hazel Blears!
20. Ouch - recession by Q1 2009.
Last thread 97 - Antifrank (btw, who is the frank you are anti? Or just that you don’t like being frank?? or…?)
Agree that little can be deduced from the Tory and Lib Dem votes last night. In defence of the poor LD vote, I would add that there has hardly been any “core vote” for Liberals or Lib Dems since the War in Glasgow - yes there have been successes like Roy Jenkins, but those were peculiar circumstances. I think Ian Robertson should this morning be taking comfort from all the positive references in the media over the campaign, and put the actual result down to experience, and being there when a second place nationalist is squeezing every vote to attack an unpopular Labour incumbent (been there, done that, Ian - in 1999 in Wales)
Sky say Labour sources blaming John Reid for not helping in Glasgow East. My prediction was correct on the previous thread - Brown does not see himself as the problem but the people on the ground
Brown is like Adolf Hitler in his bunker, marshalling his ghost armies (In Brown’s case it is voters)and blaming them for his failure in leadership.
22 — I’m looking forward to every Labour MP who voted for ID cards being handed their P45 instead. And I hope they’re subjected to a particularly humiliating round of unemployment benefit interviews as well.
Another great evening for PB - many thanks to Stuart Dickson, Easterross and other Scottish posters for updates during the campaign, plus of course Jack W’s ARSE.
How long before one of the PH100 is outed?
I voted for an SNP win and a tory third place, win-win!
19 — no, other explanations are that erstwhile Labour supporters are skint and feel under attack from their own party. Dan@22 is closer imo.
The first means that an economic upswing (perhaps US-led) makes Labour safer (and paradoxically undermines Brown by making his rivals feel the prize is worth the candle).
The second means Labour should stop attacking its own. This makes Purnell’s timing interesting. Labour’s defeat so soon after announcing the policy of punishing the unemployed undermines the Blairite challenge.
22 “It rather confirms the devastating private polling I saw yesterday. Any Labour MP with a majority of less than 10,000 should be polishing up their CVs…|
Dan - hint, hint please! LibDem polling, right, you’re a LibDem?
29 — What would happen if frank and antifrank were ever to meet?!
37 - Mutual particulate annihilation?
27. Nick Clegg in Sheffield Hallam!
10. Mr.Palmer simply doesn’t seem able to face up to the fact that voters of all stripes are rejecting his discredited party at every opportunity - as the result in Scotland clearly shows.
It’s ‘anyone but Labour’ at the ballot box now.
40. I think its more simple than ABL - its Kick Out Brown. Not only the most unpopular PM ever but probably would be voted the most incompetant PM ever.
The ‘Wisdom of Crowds’ relies upon a diverse crowd. This might explain why the more eclectic PB contributorship outperformed PH’s experts.
32. That’s not very nice - even if you think them misguided in their voting patterns. It is not good to wish anyone unemployed - they can do useful work elsewhere.
Clearly this site has a horde of political anoraks, and punters some of whom are MPs or former political candidates; others fall into the category of ‘active’ supporters; some posters are journalists, lawyers, novelists, lecturers, teachers and post graduate students. Some of this information has been freely given.
There are quite a few posters who have degrees, or pre-dumbed down A levels. The erudition of PBers is impressive be it on Ancient or Modern History, Global Warming, Crunched Credit or just simply politics. It may be that the site has attracted a host of talented posters who are more than a match for the self proclaimed great and good from Politics Home.
PH 100 losers, losers, losers. You guys took one hell of a beating, continued on post 597.
34. Me to and i voted twice!
Sir Michael White in the Guardian saying that the high turnout is the killer for Brown - people actively leaving sofas to boot him out. He’s got a valid point for once..
http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/07/michael_whites_political_blog_209.html
45. Did you forget to enter the ‘free holiday draw’?
There is an important point here. When people put their own money at stake, they look into the matter according to how they best perceive their chances of making money for themselves. The so-called experts are more interested in reputation than money, so select the herd option rather than be seen as the wildebeest exposed to predatory scorn. That is why the most popular option on the PHI survey is so overwhelmingly dominant. As on this occasion, it doesn’t necessarily mean that it is right.
20. 29. And re. the GDP figures, the outcome would have been even lower if it were not for an unusually large - and probably erratic - quarterly jump in transport and communications output. The final number for Q2 could well be revised down to 0.1% or even 0%, and Q3 is likely to be worse still.
Details of the data show recession is already here for industry and construction and very nearly so for distribution and business services. And with an early recovery most unlikely, Brown’s nightmare can only get scarier still.
@42:
You say ‘eclectic’, I say ‘deranged’. Let’s call the whole thing off.
47.
Never enter those!
30 - I’m not anti-anyone. The explanation behind my name is too tedious for words, and is very very vaguely work-related.
Bon gioooorrrrrrrnio!
lolololololololololololololol. Crikey, I thought Labour would do terribly, but just sneak it. But a defeat?? In the fifth safest Scottish seat???? I did predict a Tory third spot, but that hardly makes me Nostradumus. Or even Rogerdamus.
What now for the Hapless Gord? He is catastrophic. Whatever the opposite of catnip-to-the-voters, that’s him. He repels them. He repels everyone. Politically speaking, he is the horrible stuff that gathers at the top of old ketchup bottles in
roadside caffs near Galashiels.
So what will they do?
For the first time ever, I think it is now more likely than not that Labour will ditch him. Unless they want to actually self-destruct as a party, the only hope is to dump The Tractor Fella, have a proper leadership election, than call a GE within a few weeks: they have to be honest and open with the voters.
They must also hope that a nice fresh face - maybe someone totally unexpected, like ED Miliband - will emerge unexpectedly (a la Cameron) from these elections. This person might at least give them some likeability, enabling them to go down to modest defeat rather than a potentially fatal rout.
That is their only hope. Will the Stupidest Party in Britain realise this? I think they must, surely. Their only hope of preventing a Generation in Opposition (or actual oblivion) is to show some humility, change leader, and call a GE.
I reckon its now narrowly odds on for Gordo to be gone by 2009.
Politicalbetting.com > Politics Home “Panel of Experts”.
pwned, as I believe the youngsters say
As for Glesga East, the thing that strikes me is that it doesn’t seem too big a shock - at times it was like listening to reports from a marginal, what with phrases like “on a knife edge”.
This is Glesga East FFS. It’s the equivalent of the Lib Dems overturning K&C, and we all know the wall-to-wall coverage that would receive
Good Sky News now say the Tories will demand a GE if the PM is changed. This is exactly the right strategy. Boxes Labour into keeping Brown
@53:
Jon Cruddas. They know it makes sense.
@55:
Martin, we’d actually quite like a general election right now, if it’s okay with you. Wiping the floor with the legendary Brown Bottom will be a thing of joy.
October/November time will be great, thank Gordon.
53 A few months yet I think. The logic that the daggers will only be drawn when it looks like things may just be improving slightly for a new man to capitalise on has the ring of truth.
57.
No doubt Brown will Blame Blair! 
Confession time: I thought Labour would edge it - largely pessimism having bet on Mason and given my atrocious track record in 2008 by-elections - and when offered a competition vote I had Labour retaining by four figures to offset my SNP betting on Betfair. Everything pointed to a narrow SNP win on the day, but I just couldn’t see it not going wrong!
Sincere thanks to Stuart Dickson, Easterross, Am Balach, Marcia, Iain, Nick Palmer, and everyone else who reported from the ground and gave us a truly comprehensive understanding of the seat from early on. Too many to mentioned, but there were tens of posters who contributed to what I think was the most detailed by-election coverage ever.
Kudos to Jack W’s ARSE, and to the as ever sage advice from Our Genial Host, and congrats to all of you who made more than the modest sum I managed to accumulate.
Interesting how perception is everything. Gordo has Tony Blair’s picture at the top of the staircase to haunt him. When DC becomes PM, he will have Gordon’s……..
57 “October/November time will be great, thank Gordon.”
The dark nights won’t matter. The voters have already made their minds up that they don’t want Labour (probably ever again) so canvassing can be kept to a minimum…. Turnout will be huge and crushing for Labour.
And we can get to recant on the Euro-constitution. Yay!
36 - yes and yes.
Excellent piece my Michael White in the Guardian:
“Public opinion has been hit by three things it worries about most, the price of money (mortgages and loans), the price of petrol and the price of food.”
The uncomfortable fact for Brown is that he is not to blame for any of these things yet the electorate seem intent in giving him a good kicking anyway. That Brown is, in many ways, far preferable to Blair has been lost. He can`t recover from this.
53 - I think this might be over-doing it. Whilst Brown does seem like electoral poison in England, I don’t think this is true north of the border.
Obviously, anecdotal disclaimer here, but talking to some folk I actually got almost a hint of sympathy for the man. The problem is Labour itself. People actually turned out to deliver the trademark Glasgow kiss not to the man, but to the party. They’re sick of the whole crew.
If I were a Labour MP, tempted to think “what the hell, it can’t get worse - let’s get rid of him”, I’d ponder that long and hard. Unless the party can turn its own popular perception round, getting rid of Gordon - particularly if it turned messy - might be even worse than keeping him.
64. Gordon is indeed responsible for the price of mortgages and loans - if he hadn’t fuelled the fire of a boom paid for on credit the banks wouldn’t be pulling up the drawbridge now.
It is all his fault.
Well another successful by election for me on the betting. Thanks to those 365 votes, and some good info/advice on here, I am now a whole £5 richer! (I was all green, would have got £1.20 on Labour)
64 - Erm, Brown is at least partially to blame for the price of money being out of control.
Many have disagreed with me when I say that this result has important implications for the Con to LD dynamic. I mean that this result confirms the story which has been running since May 1. Firstly where the LDs put in little effort they are being heavily beaten by the Cons. But, even where they are putting in effort, C&N and Henley they are being beaten by the Cons. This is a new narrative and the 10% of the electorate in Glasgow East who aren’t part of the Lab to SNP narrative are behaving exactly the same as their counterparts in England.
This must have strong implications for the LDs simply because they hold proportionately more Scottish seats than English ones.
And when I said on the last thread that RodCrosby had suggested the Cons might win three seats in Scotland I mean 1 hold and two gains, sorry. But, I do think that the dynamic from this result will be enough to add another one to this list.
63 well without obviously discussing LD position can you summarise what it says for Brown?
eg - is Labour down everywhere in England inc. the north?
good potential for LD gains from Lab?
tell us what you can!
63 And you feel that you can limit the Conservative adance against you and really advance against Labour or not. Which is it.
Animal, you are Michael Crick and I claim my Clydesdale fiver…
69 ‘But, I do think that the dynamic from this result will be enough to add another one to this list.’ - Which one then.
64. Yes, but Brown got Credit for things he did not do as well, so it is swings and round-a-bouts. Indeed cost of money could be traced back to his regulatory disaster, food price increases - lack of CAG reform/set aside, price of oil he has taxed too much - if Labour had not wasted so much cash on nil-utility projects like the NHS information system £12BN and counting maybe they would have more leyway. Brown is at fault and so is his Labour party.
The Government have created a mess by not leaving themselves with sufficient leyway to adopt new strategies as problems arise. That is incomptent government as contigency planning and resources are a gold standard in Government benchmarks.
This afternoon the Prime Minister is expected to confirm that the Government’s next manifesto will promise free school meals for all four million primary school pupils in England.
Thank heavens for that ,I think Gord will now be safe for the foreseeable future and I will “buy” Labour seats.
The fightback has begun.
My estimate of the turnout was a little low because I fell for the SNP line that Scotland is ‘different’.
Well, last night one part of Scotland proved it has the same views of the Labour government as the rest of the UK. The benefiting party was different but the move from Labour was in the same order as C and N.
Stupid Brighton Labour MP on BBC said the Tories lost Christchurch then won the next election!So it can be turned round!
The next election was 1997!
EDF have just put my ‘leccie up by 17% today. Nick Palmer is on holiday, so it must be my - a consumer - fault.
Nick forget playing Diplomacy. Surely you have even more expertise at Risk?
65. No, but you slightly miss my point. Losing Glasgow East for Labour is like Pol Pot losing Phnom Penh (north-east), it’s so seismic it’s revolutionary.
Extrapolate this result nationwide and Labour are headed for an absolutely crushing disaster, with maybe fewer than 200 MPs, maybe fewer than 100.
Fewer than 100??!! It sounds incredible, but these things do happen. Check the Tories in Canada.
So it literally cannot get any worse than this. That must be on the minds of many Labour MPs today. Even if they have a grotesquely mismanaged election, in which Harriet Harman does a moonie out of her battlebus and Ed Balls accidentally demands the repatriation of pikeys in his victory speech, the worst that can happen is they face electoral oblivion under a rubbish leader. Derrr…
That’s the math. Labour are doomed to oblivion under Brown. They have a slight chance of avoiding oblivion under anyone else.
What’s more, a recession is looming. This is precisely the right time to hand over the poisoned chalice.
But, as I say, Labour are the Smuggest as well as the Stupidest Party. They may yet convince themselves the people love them, if only they can get their 628th relaunch just right. And so they will
march across the Flanders fields, donkeys led by cockroaches.
Only 365 votes - it is amazing what a difference a few votes either way can make. Today would be completely different if it had been 365 in favour of Labour.
That better organisation (the SNP campaign was compared to previous Lib Dem campaigns) accounts for the victory is obvious. But there is also reluctance of the voters to accept the current Labour message of “Gordon has been wonderful for 10 years, he is only one who can get us out of this mess”. I am afraid the voters blame Gordon for not seeing the mess coming and doing something to stop it happening. This may be unfair but there it is.
Without changing Gordon there doesn’t seem to be much hope for Labour at the next General Election. The worry must be for them that there may not be any even if they do change leader.
Yes, well done all to the PB.com crowd who showed again that they are more in tune with reality than cliques of self-appointed “experts”. The old guard just still dont get it that they are no longer any more informed than just a group of random punters…and probably they never were but now the truth is out.
Martin Day: “Good Sky News now say the Tories will demand a GE if the PM is changed. This is exactly the right strategy. Boxes Labour into keeping Brown”
…First sensible thing you’ve ever posted on PB!
28. “Were you up for Darling?”
66. And he kept us out of the eurozone, where interest rates are lower and the stronger currency protects the consumer against the rising price of fuel and food imports.
69. Yes, the Tories could now win Edinburgh SW, if they try, - East Renfrewshire and Dumfries and Galloway should be their 2 ‘certain’ gains.
70 - Labour are totally screwed and are heading for a 1997 style meltdown, mainly because of people’s economic confidence. So there will be lots of opportunities for the Lib Dems to pick up Labour seats (some quite safe ones too).
Obviously if people start feeling better about their position it may change - but given time is running out and economic conditions are unlikely to pick up a lot in the short term then Brown will be faced with going to the country at the bottom of the market with the vast majority of the electorate angry with his government’s performance.
What could Labour do? Firstly they need to find a Chancellor who inspires some sort of confidence from the public. They need to stop taking ‘initiatives’/relaunching and take a back seat while events play out and people get on with their jobs.
They need to end grandiouse projects that are pissing public money up the wall - ID cards is one (I’d cancel the Olympics - but it’s probably too far gone) and try to get some money back in people’s pockets. They need to get a grip on MPs expenses and start expelling those who appear to be on the take.
But there’s no sign Labour are capable of doing any of that because they just can’t resist tinkering.
81.
83 thanks Dan
77 - To be fair, the Tories did indeed win the 1997 election – in Christchurch. Results elsewhere however meant that this resounding victory was, erm, somewhat futile… If giving Glasgow East back to Labour is all it takes to get rid of Broon, then let them have it!
83 - The point about the Olympics is that it *is* too far gone, and there’s nothing the IOC could do about it if we decided to stage it at Walthamstow Dog Track and Neasden Leisure Centre. So massive cutbacks could start now.
82 And he kept us out of the eurozone, where interest rates are lower and the stronger currency protects the consumer against the rising price of fuel and food imports. - On the flip side we’d have had our credit boom magnified by a factor of ten and be enjoying the sort of pain that Spain is now going through.
64. Rising fuel costs
See Benny Peiser at
http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=541948
Meanwhile not all plain sailing for Boris:
London’s Oyster card network was shut down today for the second time in two weeks due to technical problems.
28 “Were you up for Balls?” would be my favoured election refrain.
74 (and 66/68). I am not disagreeing with you that Labour is incompetent. I absolutely agree. Brown`s sale of our gold reserves is a good example. What I am saying is that Labour`s incompetence stretches way back to before Brown became leader, yet Blair`s popularity largely remained intact. My point is that this is personality politics - pure and simple. The electorate - egged on by the media - have decided that they do not like the cut of his jib.
There are many reasons not to vote labour, but disliking Brown is not one of them. It is on a par with not voting for Hague because is is bald or Foot because of his dress sense. The sad fact is that, for many voters, this is as far as their political analysis goes. This is why I feel sorry for Brown.
If GB captains the ship right to the bitter end, what’s to say he won’t go down too, along with 90% of the Cabinet?
I bet the good folk of Kirkcaldy are as sick (or embarrassed) of their local son as the rest of the nation.
Labour are well and truly painted into a corner. They won’t have to go to the country if they change leader but the new guy would have such a poisoned chalice who the hell would want it?
A caretaker PM in Alan Johnson is surely their only hope - one of the few senior Labour MPs I actually like, I think he would be warmly received and would patch together much of the battered Labour coalition of voters, and might take Labour to a narrow defeat clearing the way for Milliband to take the reins in opposition and capitalise on the unpopular decisions Cameron and Osborne will unfortunately have to take. With Broon, they are surely f…ed.
87 - I like!
88. But Spain had the good sense to
a) Ensure that the ‘conduits’ (SIVs?) were treated as on-balance-sheet, so they didn’t have any; and
b) Until last year, run a budget surplus so they have room to stimulate the economy.
90 — What’ll happen when the UK’s ID card system shuts down, particularly given that Labour will have made it impossible to do anything without it?
95. They’ll need it the property market fuelled by rampant corruption resulting in overbuilding in the South is crashing and unemployment is way higher than here. In any case running a budget surplus has little to do with ECB barring the theoretical stability pact. So with us it would simply have ramped everything up further.
90 - How much are these Oyster card shutdowns costing London? It must be millions?
Wonder if it’s related to the Oyster card ‘hack’ which was recently published on the Web?
87. A very appealing thought. Perhaps we can have Brown et al. sweeping the track before each event as a penance as well.
#90.Are you Boris bashing? The oyster card problems are not of his making. True, TFL may have something to do with it; there are still too many leftovers from Ken’s regime in that body. Boris should deal with this quickly.
P.S. Boris should do better without that Nick Boles around his neck.:)
@98:
I suspect that it’s a result of Oyster Orbiting HQ attempting to patch the readers before the exploit becomes public, and the patch not being properly tested.
97. Do you think it would be any different for Spain outside the euro? It doesn’t stop incompetent governments being elected - just one less thing for them to get wrong.
Martin Kettle for once writes a very astute precis of the implications for Labour of the by-election. I don’t agree with everything he says, but the thrust is surely right:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jul/25/glasgoweast.labour
75.
This from the SNP website highlights the hatred many Scots(amongst others) had for Maggie Thatcher and Gord’s mistakes in getting pally with her.
2008-07-23
Commenting on official statements that were released last night by the UK Government, and which show that Gordon Brown gifted silverware worth over £140 to Margaret Thatcher at the time of her visit to Number 10 Downing Street, the SNP’s Westminster leader Angus Robertson said it was an enormous blunder by the Prime Minister on the eve of the Glasgow East by-election.
Mr Robertson said:
“Folk in Glasgow East would dearly love the chance to give Margaret Thatcher a piece of their mind - yet Gordon Brown gives her a piece of expensive silverware! What extraordinary conduct by a Labour Prime Minister - nothing better illustrates how out of touch Labour are.
First free school meals for all primary school children and I will apply pressure for a manifesto commitment for free school milk as well.
This will put to rest the legacy of the “Milk Snatcher” as Maggie Thatcher was lovingly known as.
London’s Oyster card network was shut down today for the second time in two weeks due to technical problems.
The problem, like last week’s glitch, is thought to be down to incorrect data being sent out by Transport for London’s (TfL) contractor, Transys
102 Yes in degree of pain. As you say wouldn’t have prevented it but it exacerbates it as it would for us.
Did the Lib Dems lose their deposit last night?
90 Technical problems? Bet someone’s managed to crack it.
Congratulations Mike!
Well done the collective wisdom of PBers!
Bloody good show SNP!
Right, that’s Glasgow done - what’s next?
Is there a You Gov this weekend?
Cons above 50% maybe?
surely the only way that labour will be wiped out at the next election is if the lib dems can up their game. If they decide to fight labour and are a credible alternative in the north then they could easily beat current expectations. Imagine if they chose to use the maggie brown image across specific areas the day of polling like the snp - they could clean up.
Congrats to Stuart Dickson and all of the SNP. They worked their socks off to win this.
OK time to put my tin hat on. I confidently predicted a LAB HOLD in this seat three weeks ago. I still believed at start of play yesterday that they would just about hold it but that the SNP were fantastic value. My average price for them was 4.58 until I went “bawdeep” at 1am. Thanks to those who gave me 6.6 and 6.8 for the SNP at 8pm yesterday. Much appreciated.
My view now is that Scottish LAB has been bashed but hasn’t had a “doing”. Looking at the numbers in the cold light of day I’d say only about 3000 LAB voters actually switched to the SNP. Tactical voting though is alive and well in Glasgow with the Lib Dems and some Tories holding their metaphorical noses and voting SNP.
What is evident is that there is still a core of Labour voter in Scotland but their votes will not be taken for granted any longer. The local organisation was a shambles and I suspect David Marshall will be moving house pretty soon before the local Labour Taliban does a Najibullah on him, banknotes and all.
It is the end for Brown and more importantly for the Scottish Labour Party, his political machine. Wendy has gone and I think the forthcoming leadership election (in Scotland) should act as a bloodletting ad air the real issues facing the Scottish people. I hope that a less confrontational approach to the SNP is taken.
Now to go and find a market for the next Scottish Labour leader. Curranfor me. (Margaret that is)
I pointed out how such media echo chambers were useless a while ago, the H&H attitude was indicative, all they do is reinforce their own rightness or wrongness.
What it is useful for is to see when and how they are wrong.
103 — why does Kettle wonder if a male candidate might have done better?
104 re Thatcher: precisely. No-one ever voted Labour out of love for Mrs Thatcher.
23 On the old boundaries a loss of all <10000 majorities would be 238 seats gone! 108 remaining.
111 see 103.
16 - Got them 100% correct, that’s what you get for actually listening to a speech rather than the spin surrounding it.
111 - It would say a lot about Scottish Labour if they were prepared to elect as leader someone who couldn’t even hold a safe seat from the SNP in her own backyard. Surely Scottish Labour will want to send off a more positive message than this?
107: “Did the Lib Dems lose their deposit last night?”
A paltry 3.5% acc to the graphic on an earlier thread. So presumably yes.
Has Neil Clegg quit yet?
114 and on the spectator site Peter Hoskins gives these figures for the leadership contenders:
Jack Straw: 8,009
James Purnell: 8,348
Alan Johnson: 9.450
Ed Balls: 10,002
David Miliband: 12,312
119. Sorry, “Nick” I meant. What was I thinking…
117. Scottish leader should be one with top 3 largest majorities surely ?
#107. The Lib-Dems were practically wiped out in Moscow - sorry Glasgow last night.
why do I get the names of these two cities mixed up?
re 80 I am afraid the voters blame Gordon for not seeing the mess coming and doing something to stop it happening. This may be unfair but there it is.
Icarus this is entirely fair and Gordon is to blame.
82 Alan J “And he kept us out of the eurozone, where interest rates are lower and the stronger currency protects the consumer against the rising price of fuel and food imports.”
You are mistaken but logical. That is what should be happening but it is not.
Fuel is at the same price as the UK more or less despite the collapse of the pound against the Euro, and in the south food prices are in line with the Daily Mirror story of a few days ago.
Some of this is down to what appear to be the semi-cartels between retailers, where prices from supermarket to supermarket, retailer to retailer, seem remarkably the same.
The real retail competition and flexibility is largely not there in the south, and and it is less than strong in the other ’social markets’ of France and Germany.
Tony Benn, interviewed on BBC News 24 earlier (the subject, of course, being Gordon Brown):
[i]“If I went to the doctor and said ‘I’ve got a problem’ and the doctor said ‘I’ve got a vision’ then I would ask for another doctor”[/i]
How many Scottish Tory MPs were there from 1979 to 1997? I suspect that when Cameron wins in 2010 he will not have anything like the same number. What then for the Union, when Scotland will be governed by a party with just a taxiful of Scottish MPs. Do any of the bookies have odds on potential dates for Scottish independence?
126. However the Scottish parliment lances that boil.
(PS - damn formatting tags! What are they if they’re not the traditional BBcode square brackets?)
126 - The Tories were in double figures right the way to 1997. They will be doing astonishingly well if they get close to that in 2010 (though bear in mind that there are now fewer Scottish seats than there used to be).
Congrats to everyone at PB, not just for the spot-on predictions, but the insightful and friendly discussions in the comments over the past few weeks. Well done everyone!
I think “” is what is required but a list of available formats would help!
Interesting snippet from Keven Maguire of the Mirror
http://blogs.mirror.co.uk/maguire/2008/07/gordon-browns-glasgow-kiss.html
“Nice touch of David Cameron to call for a General Election after the Prime Minister’s summer holiday, the Tory leader posing as a kindly executioner allowng a condemned man one last hearty meal with his family.
Alex Salmond’s SNP earthquake is shattering for Brown and a contest Labour hoped would stop the rot has left its leader on a political life support machine…
What’s amazing is Labour failed to see the SNP victory coming and were predicting a Brown triumph on the morning of the poll, the first wobble detected in the afternoon. If Brown was a lucky Chancellor he’s an unlucky Premierm And after the run he’s had, he must have killed more than one black cat. He glumluy prediced something was bound to go wrong in Glasgow East and he was correct.”
127 - Or alternatively provides a platform and rallying point for an SNP-led push for independence. Imagine it – Westminster tries to impose some legislation or other on Scotland (poll tax??); Scottish Parliament passes resolution condemning it and demanding independence; Westminster refuses a referendum; Edinburgh holds one anyway; etc etc.
Wound show greater or less than symbols - confused - I am!
128 the same but use instead of []
Bit sadistic on a day when papers are full of articles saying Des Browne will be dropped in September reshuffle to send him onto the airwaves to defend Brown the “outstandingly the best quality politicians tolead us through the current circumstances”
128/130 – It’s standard html tags, use instead of square brackets.
Use instead of [ and ]
I see that the Daily Mirror political correspondant - whats his name? - Kevin something or other has gone into hiding today.
Not a murmer. I bet his crying into his boots; if he hasn’t flogged them on Ebay.
Sorry eddie you need greater or less than symbols Shift , and shift . on my keyboard
GRRRRR
OK, use what you get when you press shift and hold down this key . and this key ,
…use pointy brackets instead of square brackets (”SHIFT + ,” and “SHIFT + .”)
138 weathercock see 131!
131. nothing in the paper though.
The UK is heading for split up. The SNP will become the largest party in Scotland in both Westminster MPs and MSPs in Holyrood. England is turning towards nationalism too. What are the odds of the first English Nationalist MP to be elected at the next GE?
Labour losing Glasgow East is like the Tories losing Kensington and Chelsea!! Labour is now heading into the political abyss.
Kellner on Sky: Labour MPs shouldn’t panic, the SNP usually get these sort of swings…
Probably true. The Labour drop in vote share of 19% wasn’t fatal, by historical standards, and LibDem tactical voting carried the SNP over the line, just…
Neither C&N or Glasgow East are truly earth-shattering upsets. Both Labour and the Tories have seen significantly worse results in the past.
Comparisons with John Major are just not supported by the results, so far… Brown is more in the range of Callaghan’s results 1974-9.
I’m still of the view that the swing next time will be closer to 5% than 10%, meaning a hung parliament rather than a 3-figure Tory majority..
But Labour are looking at perhaps 10 losses to the SNP in Scotland next time… They should pray that there isn’t another Scottish by-election before the GE…
re 125 Eddie you need angle barckets not square ones
@146:
“Comparisons with John Major are just not supported by the results, so far… Brown is more in the range of Callaghan’s results 1974-9.”
You really know how to make Labour feel better, don’t you?
145. ‘What are the odds of the first English Nationalist MP to be elected at the next GE?’
About the same as those of Max Mosely being canonized.
“I’m still of the view that the swing next time will be closer to 5% than 10%, meaning a hung parliament rather than a 3-figure Tory majority..”
This because you are anti-Tory nutter, your mind addled by your love of the Nazis.
127 - John, I think it’s unlikely to happen that way round (although it should always be remembered that Westminster does retain the power to legislate for Scotland on devolved issues).
It’s more likely that the SNP will chafe against some division of devolved/reserved areas and so the push will be initiated as a result of the Scottish Government, not the UK Government.
This assumes that the UK Government doesn’t act in a stupid and provocative way that you describe, which admittedly does always remain a possibility.
146. Good luck with the hung parliment bet - I thought they were laughed out of sight circa 2006 ?
115. Yes a good article by Kettle.
It’s lamentable jut how little good analysis was done in the lead up to yesterday. The organisation of the SNP for example and the lack of any recent Labour canvass. Why was this not commented on earlier?
The people of the East End can hold their heads up high today. When many (including many on his board) were lamenting them for being workshy and feckless, they got on with their WORKING lives.
The Glasgow Fair was an irrelevance because the workforce has moved on. When commentators mentioned how quiet the streets were in the afternoon, did it ever strike them that people were actually at work?
145; you mean BNP rather than ENP? Good chance of one in the milltowns of Northern England.
146; LOL. Good chance of at least one Scottish by-election in the forseeable future.
146 - You are admirably consistent in the face of widespread disagreement with your thesis. If you are right, you will have bragging rights for the whole of the next term. The key word in that sentence, of course, is “If”.
Thanks for the formatting lesson. Didn’t expect it to be HTML. Noted for future reference
re 146 but isn’t there a moribund Scottish Labour MP?
The ‘take it on the chin’ tactic looks evermore like the best option for labour; change leader, call a quick election, lose and bequeath a poor economic situation that has yet to bottom out.
On the other hand the inertia gripping labour could have them walking into a massive election loss. White said there were three things affecting labour, not true (add in Iraq/civil liberties/crime and so on), but the three things he mentions would be instrumental in turning a defeat into a massive defeat.
Who saw this screencapture at Iain Dale’s Diary…?
Hysterical!
http://bp0.blogger.com/_z5hT1P0X79c/SIka5ZPg8zI/AAAAAAAACBI/r93tNLcvJ9s/s1600-h/Glasgow+East+Election.jpg
146
Taken as isolated events, your comments are true.
Taken as a trend - along withe the opinion polls… bigger and bigger swings against Labour.
Trends continue until they are stopped by either an internal event (Gordon leaves) or outside events (the Conservatives split dramatically and fatally)..
Personally I expect Labour to poll under 20% before the trend turns.
I have followed politics for over 40 years: the current Government look the most incompetent and media unfriendly since…. Sir alec Douglas Hume. (sp?).
I think you are an optimist.
Well done our SNP neighbours! From the swing I calculate a Conservative majority of 60 next election (not too far from Boulton) made up of 355 Conservative, 182 Labour, 59 Lib Dems, 23 SNP, 9 Democratic Unionists, 8 Plaid Cymru, 5 Sinn Fein, 3 Respect, 3 SDLP, 2 Independant, 1 Ulster Unionist. This doesn’t seem as large a majority as the poll suggest but is in line with Boultons Sky News analysis. I reckon the Lib Dems will hold 11 Tory target seats and the SNP will keep 3 Tory target seats. I think the Conservatives will need to increase its margin over the Lib Dems to achieve a landslide.
157. Yes, apparently so, and that seat would be a gonner in a by-election..
157; 1 moribund. Down from the ‘feeble 50′.
161 Sean are you an English Nat like me or are you a Tory who supports independence?
161 Sean thanks for that which 11 Tory target seats do you see the LibDems holding..?
160. Alec was just before my time, but I doubt if he was as unpopular as Thatcher in 1981 and 1990, or the Tories generally 1993-96…
It’s simply not borne out by the stats…
157. There is no other kind of Scottish Labour MP.
“This because you are anti-Tory nutter, your mind addled by your love of the Nazis.”
Seconded.
Tory who supports as little government interference in my life as possible. Independance for Scotland and Wales would be an added bonus - I particularly don’t like an unelected PM from a country I have never been to making day to day decisions which make me worse off, despite having always worked and never claimed a penny in benefits or tax credits in my life.
157. macdougal has vowed to fight the next election even though he’sonly voted once in the last year.
166
As I understand it, there has never been a period when both Party and Leader in power have been so unpopular..(Major polled well when in power).
The double whammy is that Gordon is deeply unpopular and increasingly so… and an electoral liability.. not included on by election posters.
And the Government is as well.
If Labour wanted seriously to keep power… they would do the bleeding obvious. Since they show no signs of doing it, I assume they have given up hope and don’t want to retain power.
I’m not sure what purpose is served by playing the man, not the ball. RodCrosby has a theory about elections which is internally coherent and is based on past experience. That doesn’t mean that it is right (I don’t subscribe to it), but it does deserve careful consideration. RodCrosby’s views on other subjects are not relevant to this.
172. Agreed. I disagree with Rod but he’s a good sort.
165 - Tory targets I think Lib Dems will hold/win - Edinborough South, Teignbridge, Leeds North West, Southport, Cheadle, Brecon & Radnorshire, Portsmouth South, Bath, Bristol West, Devon North, Falmouth & Cambourne.
126. It’s very radical, but I hear Cameron has some very interesting ideas up his sleeve on this.
One of them is to offer positions in a UK government to some of the more “right-wing” (or Tartan Tory) SNP MPs after the 2010 election.
This would allow Scottish “buy-in” to a Tory victory – with members of the Scottish governing party also participating in the UK government.
If you think it couldn’t happen, remember this is exactly what Stephen Harper did in Canada after the 2006 election, when he got sitting MPs of other parties in Toronto and Vancouver to serve in his government.
And Alex Salmond has already promised to be cooperative with a Tory government where they share interests.
It could be very interesting…
174 thank you, I will look those up not familiar off the top of my head with the ask for us in those seats.
Is Falmouth & Cambourne now Truro & Falmouth?
174 Bristol West post boundary changes cannot even remotely be considered a Conservative target. The entire Tory vote has been shifted into Bristol Northwest which they should now take from Labour.
“RodCrosby’s views on other subjects are not relevant to this.”
Personally I’d be interested in knowing if the doctor, lawyer, accountant or so on advising me believed in young-Earth Creationism, Holocaust denial, HIV-rejectionism, etc. Anyone who’s been fooled that badly is surely more likely to be wrong in other respects.
Madasafish I suspect Labour MPs are simply in the ’something will turn up’ state of mind, assuming someone else will do something about it.
Labour MPs are all of a tizz, though, whatever NP says, and Scottish MPs now know they are no longer insulated against the ‘English’ swing to the Tories. The SNP takes on that role in Scotland.
For now.
What will be interesting is what happens as Labour become less and less popular, where does the unionist vote go?
I was pleased to see that Rankin was standing as a Conservative and Unionist candidate as of old. While I don’t expect miracles, the idea that the Tories could not build their position in Scotland is daft. After all there used to be a majority of Tory Unionist MPs in the country in the 50s.
Tory progress might not be easy or quick but it can happen, and ‘events’ may just give it a boost. The LibDems being tainted with the Labour brush may just help that along, too.
179. Que?
174. Disagree on about 4 of those.
179. Which is why most sensible posters on this blog ignore Rod Crosby.
182 Certainly not Bristol West thanks to the boundary commission.
180, be interesting to see how the potential Conservative-UUP alliance affects the perception of the Conservatives in Wales and Scotland. Could prove useful in dispelling the sense that the Tories were English rather than British.
What’s Gordon going on about? Alex Salmond speech due shortly
Amusing that the silly bint at Coventry has just introduced Brown “…without further adieu… Gordon Brown”
179 - There are numerous counter-examples, but here’s one:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaac_Newton’s_occult_studies
Is this the great big windmill speech that Broon is giving?
189. windmill speech?
News 24 showing Salmond, Sky sticking with Brown (time to switch to News 24 to stop me falling asleep).
190 the arms man, the arms. If he flapped them around much more he would take off.
190. Presumably this -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tilting_at_windmills
re 167 I was using it in its medical sense
Gordon Brown reminds me of the quiet, geeky kid at the front of the class who’s forced to give a presentation.
re 171 well Blair never appeared on many election posters either, but surely Labour must now appreciate what size of hole they’re in when their opponents start picturing GB on their leaflets as a reason why to vote for them.
195 - He more gives me the impression of the know it all who doesn’t!
If Tony hadn’t been so quick to leave the House after being forced out, I wonder how many Labour MPs would now be plotting a restoration?
196: Indeed, Christmas came early for the SNP - Brown AND Maggie together on the same poster…
BBC news “Brown seeks to lift Labour mood”
Is he resigning?
198. I thought John Major’s record of alienating his own supporters could never be exceeded - but it appears I was wrong. Labour’s maniacal pursuit of self-destruction is astonishing to behold.
199.
“Brown seeks to lift Labour mood”
About as effectively as an undertaker tap-dancing…
Well, I said I was 90% sure Labour would do it last night - oops! That said, I did say the SNP could squeak it, but not by four figures, so I guess that’s a partial saving of face!
Gordon in Warwick - I see he’s doing his “Gordon 2.0″ style of speech. Who was it who said that would save him a few months ago? Oh dear…
Who is that poor woman sitting behind Brown during his appalling speech?
182 - Which 4? And why?
I missed this - Lord Darzi of polyclinic fame wants Brown out.
“Lord Darzai called for Gordon Brown to “admit he is the problem” and stand down as Prime Minister.
“He has to admit he is the problem and he has to remove himself. Nobody is going to challenge a sitting leader because that is too damaging a process for the party,” he said.
“Because there is no stomach for a leadership change there is nothing we can do. It is like watching a crash in slow motion.”
Lord Darzai said Labour was now almost certain to lose the next general election.
“I hope we can improve but I don’t expect to win the next election. I wouldn’t put any money on us winning the next election, the only thing is how badly we lose,” he added.”
205 - And he is still a minister?!?!?!?
Not sure. If so it’s a biggish story
Bloody hell, Gordon waxing lyrical about Nelson Mandela again.
185 The more the Tories play the unionist cause, the better for us English Nats. Independence is coming. The Conservative and Unionist Party in England will become as unpopular as Labour in Scotland. Bring it on.
205. Rather symptomatic of how the luvvies/public sector wallahs who so enthusiastically and mindlessly supported Labour from the mid-1990s onward are now leaping from the sinking ship.
..former Blair adviser Peter Hyman said Labour was “sleepwalking to a massacre”.
http://tinyurl.com/5zo2af
At the head of its party is its Chair. Not viewed by Brown as a key role, Harperson juggles it with Leader of the House and wimmins issues etc and is an MP. Organising its Campaign activity is Dougie Alexander who also juggles it with International Development and is an MP.
As an organisation Labour is dysfunctional. One person per job should be the maxim. Instead Labour has a part time Leadership and that is why CLPs with no canvass fester away.
50% Conservative polls? 19% Labour? 30% Conservative leads? I thought of adding LD polling above Labour but they are unable to capitalise on Labour’s weakness.
205. Where is that quote from? He is a minister in the government
Re - the prediction of just two Tory gains in Scotland - East Renfrewshire and Dumfries & Galloway.
I think that if the LibDems do as badly in Scotland as I expect then Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk and West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine are very possible/probable gains as well. That would take us to the minimum of the “4 to 10″ gains quoted by Murdo Fraser (Deputy Tory Leader at Holyrood) last night. There are a number of other Scottish seats that could go Tory on a relatively low vote share depending on how it breaks with the other three parties. These include:
Argyll and Bute
Stirling
Edinburgh SW
Edinburgh South
And if the SNP slip between now and 2010 then Perth & North Perthshire and Angus become vulnerable too. The SNP margin in both was only about 1500 in 2005.
That would take us to Murdo’s upper limit of ten.
205 - This is complete b*!!*cks !! Lord ‘polyclinic’ Darzi said absolutely NOTHING of the sort - he was at Downing Street with Gordon and a bunch of kids just this week.
Stop posting complete rubbish which has no basis in reality !!!
64
Brown doubled the tax on oil companies when chancellor, reducing the incentive to develop north sea oil.
Government policy of mandating bio-fuels is factor in the rise of food prices.
212 - It is from PoliticsHome.
He IS still a government minister as far as Wikipedia goes; Parliamentary under secretary
214. Check PoliticsHome.
OH LOL apologies. My fault! It is NOT Darzi but Desai
as you were.
test - no I am getting absolutely FURIOUS !!! You are setting a load of hares running with complete and utter fiction and making yourself look a complete and utter imbecile, and by repeating it you are just becoming a complete tw@t.
Let me repeat AGAIN, LORD DARZI HAS MADE NO COMMENT LIKE THIS - IT IS A WORK OF FICTION AND YOU SHOULD STOP SPREADING THESE LIES AND SMEARS ABOUT HIM NOW !!!!! Before you make yourself look even more foolish !!
Ah, case of mistaken identity, it is Lord Desai, not Lord Darzi… Lord Desai has the worst hair in the HoL!
214 this just up on politics home
Lord Desai: Brown should admit he is the problem
11:05 | 25/07/2008
Lord Desai, Labour peer
BBC News
Lord Desai called for Gordon Brown to “admit he is the problem” and stand down as Prime Minister.
“He has to admit he is the problem and he has to remove himself. Nobody is going to challenge a sitting leader because that is too damaging a process for the party,” he said.
“Because there is no stomach for a leadership change there is nothing we can do. It is like watching a crash in slow motion.”
Lord Desai said Labour was now almost certain to lose the next general election.
“I hope we can improve but I don’t expect to win the next election. I wouldn’t put any money on us winning the next election, the only thing is how badly we lose,” he added.
Permalink
No, no. You are all confusing Lord Darzi, Parliamentary under secretary at Health with Lord Desai, regular Brown critic.
@219:
Cool yourself, child. It was a harmless surname-confusion. Don’t have a thrombo.
219 do un-twist your knickers - it actually was not my fault but PoliticsHome’s fault. I did not mis-read - the post at 205 was copy-pasted from PoliticsHome. They originally put up Darzi now they say Desai.
I copied and pasted it from there.
Yikes ! and this is meant to be a site for political anoraks !
Get your facts straight, folks…
213. Dumfries is the only nailed-on Tory gain next time. In all the others the Tories will struggle, the system will work against them in every possible way; plateau effects, lack of tactical support, SNP-Lib tactical voting… They will be very lucky to gain anything else…
218. My point at 210. nevertheless remains entirely valid. What might be termed the ‘Start the week/Newsnight crowd’ are now recoiling from the monstrosity (Labour) that they once so slavishly gushed over.
219 - You aren’t Darzi are you?
225 It is perfectly reasonable when a news site like PoliticsHome puts up an item like the post at 205 for a poster here to copy and paste it. We are unlikely to be able to independently verify what major news sources write.
Blame them.
229 - Rather ironic given the subject of this thread.
@229:
I think we do. Regularly.
Obama: “optimism without reality”
–D. Brooks,
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/25/opinion/25brooks.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&oref=slogin
226 I would expect the Tories to take Dumfries & Gallaway, Stirling, Renfrewshire East & Edinburgh South West. Can’t see it being more than 4 seats taken.
225. Guess what? Mistakes happen! Don’t be so angry over a simple case of human error that could happen to anyone.
228. No it is XXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXX
We can all understand that Labour supporters are a little touchy this afternoon.
I still think the time has come for Dave to spin off our Scots brothers, and allow the ScotCons to find their own name (SUP? Scottish Reform Party?), identity (Social democratic unionist), leader (The lovely Annabel) and politics (cuddling up to Eck) as an Independent but closely allied party North of the Border.
There was some early noise that Dave was considering that soon after becoming leader. I wonder why that fell through? Perhaps he’s worried that an explicit formalization of the Alex and Annabel show will undermine his authority in 2010?
204. Teignbridge, Portsmouth South, Bath and Devon North are very do-able. I’d expect Tory Gains in all of these.
Bath is probably the trickiest target, but Camerons Liberal Conservatism will appeal there - and there was a v. good Lib-Con swing in 2005. Bath had been Conservative since the 1920s before Chris Patten lost it in 1992.
Teignbridge looks deceptively safe for the Lib-Dems, but in reality is much more vulnerable. There is a strong Tory recovery in the South-West and a joke candidate last time made our performance much worse than it would have otherwise been.
I wouldn’t rule out a comeback in Cheadle either. None of these majorities are huge: all are less than 5,000 or 10% (apart from Teignbridge)
Remember: Cameron is 20% ahead in the polls and Libdems have shed 1/3rd of their support since 2005.
However, on the other seats, you are right.
I can’t see any revival in Leeds NW/Southport or Bristol W, unfortunately. Those seats are gone for good.
Sir Walter Scott wrote this, ….. I thought it rather apt
Yet Clare’s sharp questions must I shun,
Must separate Constance from the nun ..
Oh! what a tangled web we weave
When first we practice to deceive!
A Palmer too! No wonder why
I felt rebuked beneath his eye;
232 - God not Brooks again, the guy has one gear.
This is one of the next two memes spread by the right wing media(note: see what Limbaugh is saying because those at his feet start yapping all over the net a day or so later).
To save everyone time here they are -
1) “They wanted Obama to be the messiah but he’s clearly not!” n.b. it was the right wing media that started the messiah meme in order to counter it themselves later.
2) “He sounds great but where are the ideas?”, which basically means “i don’t like his ideas therefore I’m denying that he actually has them”. Couple that with the Cameron-esque concern that giving away too much too soon allows McCain to try and tack towards him.
Falling out of the top two are the ‘he’s so liberal!’, which was replaced by ‘he’s a flip-flopper!’ the latter again being the answer to their very own meme.
Coming soon, the next one will be ‘culture wars’, this is the nasty one and it’s going to get bloody, watch this space.
237. The Tories and the LDs do have separate Scottish organisations. Don’t know the situation in Wales. In Scotland, the Labour party and the MSPs are part of a British (?UK) Labour party, GB prop. rather than being a separate Scottish Labour.
And Vector Triangulation this thread on Guido
http://www.order-order.com/2008/07/co-conspirators-need-to-gloat-bit-more.html
confirms my innocence points out the original PH item said Darzi and then they changed it to Desai.
237 Martin the thinking is it undermines Unionism - after the UUP alliance the last thing we want is to stop Conservatism at Hadrian’s wall
What a night. Congrats to Easterross, marcia and others who stuck to their predictions in the face of doom and gloom from me and some others. And thanks to those Labour-supporting posters who kept ecstatically quoting the drifting SNP odds. You made the result all the sweeter.
What’s to become of Motherwell and Wishaw? Is it pretty safe to assume that McConnell (majority 6000-odd) will now be forced to linger on until the 2011 elections?
229: yes, not test’s fault. The Desai quote isn’t surprising - he’s made similar comments before. Vector is however right that it would have been very surprising if it had been Darzi!
237. Scottish Progressive Unionists!
233. In Edinburgh SW the Tories start too low. Darling should hold fairly comfortably with the SNP and Tories fighting for second.
Renfrewshire East is a possibility, but Murphy starts 14% ahead. A 7% swing is a big ask for the Tories in Scotland. Narrow Labour hold, I’d guess.
Stirling will be fascinating, probably a three-way recount between SNP, Labour and the Tories..
There could be a dozen seats in Scotland won with 30% of the votes or less…
213. 233. On last night’s result, how on earth can the Tories expect to finish above the SNP in either Argyll or Stirling both of which the SNP gained at Holyrood in 2007?
233. If it’s a very good night for Cameron - and the LibDems collapse north of the border - Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, Perth and North Perthshire, West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine and **maybe** Edinburgh South plus Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock could fall too…
9 Scottish MPs - enough for Cameron to govern the UK without too much worry. 7 MPs - would probably be ok too - it’s enough to man the Scottish office with a few ministers and represent rural/urban, north/southern Scotland.
Otherwise, your prediction of 3-4 Tory MPs in Scotland sounds about right. And will prob be an issue.
242- test- you are always the model of good decency and manners on this site. I think Victor went a trifle OTT with his broad side against your very understandable mistake.
238 You should note that Teignbridge and Bristol west are radically altered by Boundary changes. They can no longer be considered Tory targets in any conceivable way. The knock on effects are though to give the Tories very winnable targets in a new Devon Central and a radically changed Bristol Northwest but to smoke their chances in the original seats.
244 Nick P. I thinking of accepting a commission to get my ARSE over to Broxtowe for a spot of marginal analysis. What your bottom line for LibDem tactical switchers ?
Thank you Tyson - much appreciated.
I don’t blame Vector, his passion suggests some connection to Lord Darzi (perhaps on staff) and it would be very serious for the career of a minister to be quoted callin for the PM’s head, so, I get it.
John Hutton just said the only way is up for Labour when asked if they were at rock bottom.
Echoing Stars&Stripes view (no Democrat he) -
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_alan_i_abramowitz/the_myth_of_a_toss_up_election
The media’s non-focus on McCain and need to create a story is potentially a good betting opportunity if McCain’s price becomes artificially affected.
“While no election outcome is guaranteed and McCain’s prospects could improve over the next three and a half months, virtually all of the evidence that we have reviewed–historical patterns, structural features of this election cycle, and national and state polls conducted over the last several months–point to a comfortable Obama/Democratic party victory in November. Trumpeting this race as a toss-up, almost certain to produce another nail-biter finish, distorts the evidence and does a disservice to readers and viewers who rely upon such punditry. Again, maybe conditions will change in McCain’s favor, and if they do, they should also be accurately described by the media. But current data do not justify calling this election a toss-up. “
233. Sean
Surely the Scottish Tories have an excellent chance in Edinburgh South too?
@252:
Hope springs eternal, John?
re: 154; “you mean BNP rather than ENP? Good chance of one in the milltowns of Northern England.”
coming from a milltown in northern england I can tell you there is a zero percent chance of the bnp winning any mp’s at the general election. No doubt there is a relatively high support for the BNP in comparison to most parts of the country (except london) but its still a very small minority. They have few councillors and have never got close to winning at a by election or general election.
BNP support in the north, although relatively high, is massively over exaggerated.
Darzi will be wishing he’d joined in with Desai’s critcism come Labour’s defeat in 2010.
248. Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock is my home patch. Looking at the Holyrood results, with some mental arithmetic and Glasgow East extrapolation, it could become a 3 way fight and difficult to call. I don’t think that Sandra Osborne has done much to win the affections of her 10k+ majority.
@251:
I’m not sure Broxtowe’s big enough for two ARSEs.
It’s also worth noting, Scots *do* vote differently in Westminster and Holyrood elections - and on different boundaries.
If Scots know there will be a Tory government, *some* may want to vote for representation within it and switch their votes from SNP/LibDem to Tory.
The battle is Labour vs. SNP in Holyrood. It’s Labour vs. Tory for Westminster. Scots know this. And despite the fact Labour are still more popular in Scotland than the Tories, there has been some rise in support for Cameron - and some tactical unwind - so a score of 20% isn’t unreasonable. There could be a “Quebec” effect in Scotland in 2010..
Also, Westminister seats are much larger than they used to be now the boundary changes have come in (certainly more so than Holyrood) and therefore encompass more urban/rural areas than the name sometimes suggests.
As Rod says (sensibly for once) there could well be plenty of 3/4 way marginal fights next time. It’s still FPTP for Westmister remember.
re 205 Lord Darzi is I remember a big-tenter, and like Lord Jones of Birmingham and Lord West of Spithead it seems they can get away with saying anything. Perhaps the No 10 thumbscrews have broken through overuse.
254. It will only be by the mother of all accidents…
Re-gaining the seat on 26% of the vote, 10% less than when they lost it in 1987….
Fraser Nelson though is quoted on Guido as saying that when Gordon hits rock bottom he will just start drilling!
250. If you re-read my post, you’ll find I did say I thought Bristol West was totally unwinnable.
As for Teignbridge, I wasn’t aware of far-sweeping boundary changes to it (thank you) but there has been a remarkable improvement in Conservative support in the South-West recently - both in polls and at this years local elections - so I wouldn’t rule it out.
247. The Argyll Westminster seat is substantially different from the Holyrood seat because it includes Helensburgh which is a poor area for the SNP. The Tory candidate is a Helensburgh councillor.
I think the Stirling Westminster seat is also larger than the Holyrood equivalent - not sure, but think it may include Bridge of Allan which, again, is a good Tory area.
But, let’s be honest. The four-party dynamics in Scotland make these seats difficult to predict. Much will depend on whether Salmond and Cameron can maintain their flightpaths for the next two years.
258 Martin. Modesty forbids ….. but I assure you I’ll brook pale immitation of the finest global pollster this side of the Universe !!
256. But at least the nobel Lord will have his HoL seat and his medical career to fall back on. What will the hordes of drone-like beings on the Labour benches in the Commons have?
Mr.Palmer and a few others may be rewarded by elevation to the European Soviet, from whence they are unlikely to be evicted by ungrateful voters, but the outlook for the rest is bleak indeed…
A not-a-Labour-voter feels betrayed by Labour.
Also casts doubts on whether the ‘New Generation’ Lab boys will actually materialise.
http://www.samizdata.net/blog/archives/2008/07/now_for_the_lab.html
246 - so you think Darlings personal vote will hold up against the national swing :o)I think Darlings personal vote will probably be as low as Browns by the time of the election (a chancellor with less idea about Finance than the PM has about running the country).
“A 7% swing for the Tories in Scotland is a big ask” - last nights result was a 9.2% swing Labour to Tory, even taking into account the third party squeeze.
On Stirling I agree with you, at a second (more detailed) look I would expect the SNP to win - with %s of SNP 28, Conservative 26, Labour 23 and Lib Dem 18.
257. Yup. And don’t forget Cameron has plans (with Pickles) to simply *pour* resources and effort into these seats.
The Tories have an absolutely excellent ground-op. They’ll get nearly all their voters out here and probably convince a fair few soft Lib/Lab/SNP voters to switch too.
I think the extra boots on the ground and superb organisation will really make a difference in some of these seats.
263 I thought your meaning was that i was simply a target that wouldn’t be won. My point was the boundary changes removed even the notion of it being a target.
Teignbridge. Really unlikely in the extreme. Their best bits go into Devon Central and the seat is changed so much even the name changes to Newton Abbot. In time the Tories will surely challenge but it’s a massive ask at the next election.
Re Teignbridge (what remains is now called Newton Abbot, it is not?), I’ve been in that area on holiday over the past fortnight and without any knowledge of its local politics at all, it certainly looks and feels like the Tory heartland it probably was for decades prior to 1997. (Or indeed, 2001 I think when it was actually lost?). I would think the evident Tory resurgence in the south-west should see even the notionally solid Lib Dem remainder of the seat sweep back into the blue. Indeed, if the LDs don’t get into the high teens or better, I would expect a swathe of blue from Lands End to Bristol.
**********BREAKING NEWS*************
BBC News Paul Kenny General Secretary of the GMB called for a Leadership election and for Gordon to stand in it.
Rasmussen looks at the myth of the “toss up election” :
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_alan_i_abramowitz/the_myth_of_a_toss_up_election
GMB general secretary Paul Kenny calls for leadership election. I’ve just increased my position on Alan Johnson to be next Labour Leader as a result.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/rosa_prince/blog/2008/07/25/calls_for_a_leadership_election
News from the bunker - our dear leader is not alone and still has female company to keep him steady through the long nights of American credit crunching.
Our old friend snowflake5
http://www.labourhome.org/story/2008/7/25/12515/0920
And the Mata Hari herself - Dame Polly of Tuscany
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jul/19/labour.gordonbrown
Remember its only the right wing press’s fault
268. “A 7% swing for the Tories in Scotland is a big ask” - last nights result was a 9.2% swing Labour to Tory, even taking into account the third party squeeze.
But the current opinion polling in Scotland is showing about a 5-6% Con-Lab swing, and I’d expect it to be lower on polling day…
273 see 253!
GMB that’s news.
Henry G Manson do you hear any other Labourite rumblings of challenges
271. It was 2001 and Partic Nichols lost it!
247 - You are probably right (and I am wrong again). I would predict Argyll Lib Dem 30%, SNP 30%, Conservative 24%, Labour 14%. I actually now think the Lib Dems can hold this seat - there will be no tactical voting by Tory or Lib Dem to SNP and think this will just prevent the SNP taking the seat.
278. Sorry meant Patrick Nichols
180
Witan
“Labour MPs are waiting for someting to turn up”
..
Their toes?
One thing I have learned in life and more brutally in trading shares is to cut losses and losers as soon as it is clear they are no good.
Well I think we can safely say Brown has proved he is “no good”.
Which in my opinion suggests teh Labour Party are unfit for office cos they clearly have no experience of the real world. And if changing Leaers is painful now when in power it will be 10 times worse when out because they will all blame some-one else i.e. each other.
I know it is brutal but the electorate don’t like:
losers
being lectured to
taxes.
Gordon appear to be good at all three catgeories .
If they don’t ditch him, he’ll continue to rub the electorate up the wrong way.. I seriously expect Labour to lose between 150 and 200 seats at the next GE and face Opposition for at least a decade until memories fade.
Since the 2009 recession is going to hit the younger more heavily indebted popluation more than others, Gordon is busy alienating the voters of the future. If Labour MPs are too - insert adjective of choice - to see it, then it’s as much their fault as Gordon’s.
@277:
That sounds to me like a gambit for this weekend’s negotiations. Gordon’s already floored. The unions are taking a perfectly sensible opportunity to kick him in the head a few times to stop him from getting up.
Some other results from last night (hat tip Con Home)
Coastal – Boston DC (Boston and Skegness) – Con gain from Other. Con vote 31% -3%, Lab 4% from nowhere, LD 19% from nowhere, BBI 28% -10% BNP 10% from nowhere, UKIP 8% +1%.
Castle Hill - Ipswich DC (Central Suffolk and North Ipswich) – Con hold. Con vote 64% +5%, Lab 22% -3%, LD 14% -7%.
Magnus – Newark and Sherwood DC (Newark and Sherwood) – Con hold. Con vote 50% -18%, Lab did not stand -33%, LD 22% from nowhere, Ind 28% from nowhere.
Darley – Derby City (Derby North) – LD gain from Ind (elected as LD). Con vote 34% +12%, Lab 24% -9%, LD 36% -1%, Green 7% -2%.
Muxton – Telford and Wrekin (The Wrekin) – Con hold. Con vote 62% +4%, Lab 27% -1%, Ind 8% from nowhere, UKIP 4% -13%.
BBC website: “Attacking the Conservative Party’s policies, [Brown]said he did not want “to wake up 24 months from now” to see education and health budgets cut, at the same time as “massive tax cuts” for the rich.”
Is GB saying he’s currently in a deep sleep then?
Would explain a lot.
Gordon’s asleep, whilst the voters have nightmares…
Isn’t the GMB either Brown’s or Blair’s sponser union?
Someone needs to give this chap some happy pills:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jul/25/glasgoweast.labour1
254 - I think Edinburgh South will be extremely tight (majority under 1%) but the Lib Dems will just shade it. however, any slight improvement from the Tories and they could shade it. Just seems a step too far to catch Lib Dems with no tactical voting in their favour. Would expect Labour voters to go Lib Dem to keep the Tories out.
275. Interesting to read the extent of denial there. The idea that 20% swings could be avoided by having more efficient candidate selection and improved canvassing processes…simply laughable. The bunker mentality clearly extends far beyond Brown and his inner circle of sycophants…
284. “24 months from now.”
Looks like 2010’s on, then. What a pity that we’re going have to endure another two years of this disasterous rabble.
257 - I would reckon Labout to hold Ayr with a majority of about 4%
Indeed he was is sponsered by the GMB, bade news that for Brown he is toast:
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/gordon_brown/kirkcaldy_and_cowdenbeath#register
283 - Looks good from Conservatives point of view. The Muxton result is interesting in that UKIP seems to be dieing a death. Darley is also interesting in that ok it is a Lib Dem gain but they appear to have lost share whereas the Conservatives have increased it, indeed if we had the raw numbers I suspect that there were probably little more than 50 votes separating the two!
The Tories are certainly in with a chance in a number of seats, but the odds are they will only win 1 or 2…
An inordinate amount of luck would be required to exceed this…
For some reason PoliticsHome have now (it seems) changed the story about Lord Desai back to Lord Darzi…?
are they having an off day?
Maybe it’s just my comuter but it’s still there when I hit refresh.
289 - yes, but think of the irreperable damage GB can do to Labour’s future prospects (and indeed, survival at all) in the next 2 years. What a star the man is…
284 - The more interesting point is that Brown’s election strategy seems to be to reheat the 1997, 2001, and 2005 campaigns.
John Rentoul on Sky: “It could all be over in a week for Brown…”
What are these people on?
Re Portsmouth South, I’d be very very suprised if we don’t take it back.
I’ve campaigned in Portsmouth South at every election since 1992 when we just squeaked in.
The difference this time is that the electorate know they can change the government, who are dispised in this part of the South. Conservative voters in my experience are not inclined to “waste” their vote if they don’t think it will change anything. When Labour were always going to win (97,01 and 05) many didn’t see the point in turning out. They smell blood this time and in Portsmouth South I predict a significantly increased turn out with a Con majority between 1500-2000.
251: JackW: there is a Lib-Lab coalition in Broxtowe and it’s objectively visible that the LibDems go all out for council seats but don’t fight General Elections hard: at the last election they put up zero GE posters and in leaflets noted explicitly that people could vote for me while supporting them locally. Consequently, the Tories are attacking us both quite aggressively and we work together probably more closely than in any other constituency in Britain.
With the seat obviously at risk to the Tories, I’d expect a good potential tactical vote from LibDems in that situation, but not more than a maximum of half their current level of 16% - probably a third is more realistic. I’m also aware of some Green voters who will support me next time who didn’t think it necessary in 2005. So there’s an absolute maximum of 6-9% tactical vote, minus any LibDem or Green voters who decide that they would rather have a Tory MP (plenty of those in the national polls - not so sure locally), minus any of the 2.6% UKIP/Veritas voters who go Tory next time, plus/minus whatever impact a probable BNP intervention has, plus/minus any change in how people rate me and my opponent personally.
I led last time by 4.7%, so with no other factors would lose on a 2.4% swing. Overall I think I can reasonably hope to improve on the national swing by a few % now it’s obviously so close, but any national swing over say 6% and I’d be toast. The current average opinion poll swing is as you know around 11%, so the party is keen that I eat my greens and avoid extreme sports :-). If the national swing narrows it will become good fun to watch.
They should have consulted the blog “Independence Cymru”:
http://alanindyfed.blogspot.com/
290 Unfortunately for the Tories Ayrshire was split up in the most unpromising way for them at Westminster. They hold the Holyrood seat of Ayr but the Tory parts of that seat are divided between two Westminster constituencies and swamped by large Labour-voting hinterlands. The boundary review overall was not kind to the Scottish Conservative Party.
I don’t want to wake up in 2011 and find I’m being fined for refusing to be fingerprinted in the name of a 24/7 centralised tracking device (sold to the sheeple as an ‘ID card’).
277. Not heard anything else of note.
Any (so-called) Liberal voters foolish enough to support, in any constituency, an ID cards-promoting Labour MP deserve everything they get.
302 thanks Henry your internal knowledge is valued.
294 - Not just you, they really need to clarify whether it is Darzi or Desai. If the former then it is a big story, if the latter it is a shrug of the shoulders and move on thing…
289. Indeed. I have always maintained that Major’s “back me or sack me” move actually saved the Tories from complete destruction in 1997, in that it confirmed their leadership, and, whilst not completely cementing Major’s authority, made him look like a more permanent fixture. It also boosted his credibility in that he was willing to put himself before the judgment of his party (and won).
OK, so he still led the party to a disaster, but I always think how much *worse* 1997 could have been if certain factors moved in the opposite direction. 1995-1997, and Major’s actions over those years, actually saved around 50-60 Tory seats, I think.
If Brown continues in this bunker mentality for the next two years, Labour could really hit rock bottom, without the mild recovery the Tories enjoyed leading up to 1997. Bearing in mind the economic woes are also likely to continue over the next two years, and not improve like they did 11 years ago, and you have a recipe for Labour disaster.
I’m not saying a change in leader or a leadership election in which Brown is a candidate would allow Labour to win the next election (they’ve as good as lost now, in my opinion), but it could save them those 50-60 seats that would turn a big defeat into a cataclysmic disaster which could put them out of power for years again.
It’s their call.
Nick - I have the answer to the save Broxtowe from the Tories problem. As you already have a Lab/Lib coalition just join the Lib Dems and we will then have a Lib/Lab Broxtowe. Can you get your canvas returns onto a disc before you come across!!! - You do have canvas returns don’t you?
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3923af14-5a29-11dd-bf96-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
NO MORE BOOM AND BUST!
295. If the head of an organisation that financially supported his leadership campaign last year says effectively there should be a leadership election. I would not be surprised to see others come out and call for one! Momentum is key the first 72 hours, if he can get through till Monday he is safe. Otherwise it is curtains!
Ultimatly he is toast though!
293. It’s entertaining to see the certainty with which you express your invariably incorrect opinions, Mr.Crosby.
299 Nick P. Thank you. Much will depend on whether Lib Dem tactical switchers still find the Tory brand as toxic as in the past. The evidence is that they don’t.
On present trends I fear the Broxtowe Pu$$y Club will be in the market for a new parliamentary champion.
However there’s many a slip between cup and lip and perchance Cammy will drop the whole crate of brown ale before the off !!
299 NIck suggests that with a national swing of 6% he would be “toast”. I remember ALex Fergusson MSP - who was defending a majority of 99 over the SNP in Galloway and Upper Nithsdale - saying that he was probably “toast” during the last Holyrood elections judging by the opinion polls at the time. He was running a staunchly pro-union re-election campaign.
In the end he confounded the overall swing to the SNP, increased his majority to over 3000, and is now the presiding officer.
So maybe all is not lost for Nick.
(However should point out that Fergusson is an Old Etonian, which possibly suggests that all is indeed lost for Nick!)
For Brown’s survival chances so much depends on how much momentum builds up in the next few days. Graham Stringer MP is calling for Brown to go:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4397000.ece
I don’t know if the PLP has it in it to do what the Tories did to IDS. Yes it took a while for IDS to go, but eventually he got a firm boot. At PMQs the Labour benches all seem so wishy washy…
Perhaps Nick you should join with the local Conservatives in a “grand coalition” to keep the yellow peril out ?
299. Nick, I don’t want to put a downer on you but the LD’s have a serious candidate next time. He is local bloke who lives in Broxtowe and i doubt they will sit back at the next election as they have before. The next election is being obviously fought in a very diffent landscape/ Paradigm to the previous 3 elections.
I wish you all the best, but i think you will find it very hard next time indeed.
More bad news for GB - he faces another drubbing at the polls this year after the ‘G*****r Manchester’ authorities decided to put the Govt’s “congestion-charge for so-called public transport improvements” bribe to a postal vote referendum, requiring 70% to back the plans to go ahead.
Given that the Labour Councillor behind the mad scheme lost his seat in Salford at the May locals, and polls show 80% of the public are against this at a time of massive fuel bills and other cost of living increases, I predict a rout for Labour.
And another New Labour flagship policy down the drain, a la the North East assembly referendum…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/manchester/7523997.stm
Although the cynic in me says this may have something to do with Labour councillors in the area desperately finding a way of not losing their seats next May.
314- Sod that, you should run for the US Senate!
316 - and Ruth Kelly wanting to save hers too, perhaps, as she will have presumably given them the green light to go down this route…
316- It does seem rather odd that the Labour party thinks that motorists will continue voting for them by rapidly increasing their costs.
But then, Labour party members/activists do seem to have a rather large anti-car brigade.
297
Why Rod, do you think it might be all over in 48 hrs?
The state of the ‘left’ in this country is depressing. Just look what has happened in South America in recent years witha new breed of left-wing Presidents, the possibility of an Obama victory in the US, a refusal by European nations to liberalise their economies. When are we finally going to get a British politician who can come and demolish Thatcher’s legacy?
As for the by-election, well done Mike. Just shows how even most ‘experts’ are pretty clueless about opinion polls and their methodology.
re 299 but Nick the party might prefer it if - as a good, candid, ultra-loyal friend - you took on the Brutus role.
Classic flashback to the Tories in the mid 90’s - Tony Mcnulty on the telly saying the voters are not against Labour or the PM. Voters like the PM! Tony made me laugh!
“When are we finally going to get a British politician who can come and demolish Thatcher’s legacy?”
Well we already have one who is destroying the reputation of the city and of Britain as a good location for inward investment so it looks like Brown is alrady half way there.
Another interesting juncture is next year’s euros. What price almost complete wipeout for Labour? UKIP are dying, Labour are decomposing, Lib Dems are stagnating.
Labour and the Lib Dems will also reap the voters’ anger over the Lisbon betrayal; I can see the Tories taking the vast majority of European seats.
All of which means, Brown could very easily leave Labour with:
fewer than 200 MPs
fewer councillors than the Lib Dems
virtually no MEPs
Heh. And the sun is shining here in Marsala. This is a GOOD day.
re 325 Sean T you do know that the Euro on run on the discredited closed list system don’t you?
312. That’s the answer then - make Nick the Speaker!!
Labour has almost entirely lost control of everything, but one of the things that is still within their own hands is the ability to choose the nature of their defeat, and its consequences.
Option 1: Brown clings on until the bitter end, Labour is annihilated, and takes a decade to recover (assuming it does)
Option 2: Brown is quietly steered aside, Jack Straw takes over, calls an election, loses convincingly but by a margin that at least provides hope for the future, and then oversees an orderly renewal of the party.
Not, I admit, a situation that I’d be happy about facing up to if I were on the red team this afternoon. But while I make no claims to be a political expert, I honestly don’t see an alternative
326’s ‘BannedHorse’ is NOT me!
Greetings, SeanT
At the recent PB Party there was some speculation as to what might be the ‘floor’ for the number of Labour seats at the next GE. Most said about 200. You say fewer than 200. I am revising my own estimate down to 150.
Enjoy that sunshine.
Oh, and the FTSE’s down as well.
Graham Stringer is always calling for Broon to go. His constituency (Blackley) is much like Glasgow east, but not as nice.
Yet more ‘we’re not getting our message across’ bollox on News 24.
315: Martin, the LibDem candidate is the same one as last time (and indeed the time before). He’s a nice chap and we get on very well.
The Sunday Times rang up just now with one of their leading-question surveys, pushed to extremes. Did I blame Gordon Brown for the defeat? No, I blame other factors. Ah. So did I agree Gordon Brown has to change radically in order to avoid such defeats? No, other factors have to change. Oh. So did I think that Labour would be doing much better with an exciting new leader? No. Hmm. Well, would I agree that Gordon needs to step down soon? No. The poor guy was stuck with this relentless quote-hunting script. Presumably they’ll find someone to say yes to something, and the story will be ‘knives out for Brown’. Newspapers!
321. Oh for a Chavez to sweetly serenade us for hours every week on his greatness! Oh for a strong man to wash away the corruption of a multi-party system and forge a European way free from satanic Americanism! Oh for a pure-hearted outsider, a hero, an ubermensch!
332. I know I hate it when politicians say that. Can you imagine the Chief Executive of a major firm like Marks & Spencer bleating ‘we’re not getting our message across’ if they had repeatedly poor sales. They’d get laughed at. Then sacked.
321. Obama isn’t really left in international terms, leftist European countries have much higher unemployment than us, and what have the South American governments done well? The most popular guy there is Uribe, who is given credit for ridding the Colombians of the menace of FARC.
333. Perhaps he should have asked “under any circumstances is there any question about Brown which you would ever answer unfavourably about him to a journo ?”
Would have saved a few minutes
@333:
Sounds like you just walked into their “desperate and tragic Labour hacks in embarassing denial” trap!
“The LibDem candidate is the same one as last time (and indeed the time before). He’s a nice chap and we get on very well.”
What does he think about his leader’s vow to go to prison rather than register on the NIR?
333 but if they are calling MPs there is no possibility of getting a skewed answer is there?
An MP is fully aware what it means if he says ‘yes’ to any one of those questions from the Sunday Times. Which is why you said no.
333 - That’s how journalists work. People like you don’t give the more interesting answers unless you’re sure that you want to.
330: with GB at the helm, I can see Tories sweeping all before them in the south and much of London, big Tory gains in the Midlands and suburban north, LDs winning a good number of urban seats, and the SNP making big gains in Scotland.
Should leave a nice rump of Labour MPs in London and the cities, plus a handful of lucky escapees where the Tory PPC suffers some local difficulty.
325. Under the old electoral system, UKIP would certainly be headed for wipeout next year, and Labour would be looking at being reduced to a handful of seats.
But remember elections to the European Soviet now work under a party list system, so even if Labour poll 15% they will still retain a reasonable clutch of seats. This of course is the attraction of such systems to those who believe in shielding politicians from the electoral consequences of their actions.
Expect a long queue of applicants for any Labour vacancies, as various MPs suddenly develop a ‘European vocation’…
Alistair Darling says the glasgow defeat last night was due to the “credit crunch”. See Politics Home.
These Labourites just dont get it!
The whole country loathes our Great Leader, even union leaders are asking, nay begging him to have an election for a new leader, come autumn.
Looks like Christian nutbar Dobson is going to endorse McCain. Seeing that he’s probably more deluded than Hagee, will McCain accept it?
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/07/20/dobson.mccain.ap/index.html
335 - I know. Perhaps on A level results day, if my students had all failed, I could claim that I had failed to get my message across and thereby avoid a lynching.
(They won’t fail, by the way!)
“293. It’s entertaining to see the certainty with which you express your invariably incorrect opinions, Mr.Crosby.”
Not certainty, probability…
299. The standard deviation of swing is usually about 3%, although at the past two elections it’s been a bit more even at about 2.5%. So 95% of results will be within the range of say +/-5.5% of the mean swing.
Nick’s chances, based on the national swing, look like…
0 0.2/1
1 0.4/1
2 0.8/1
2.4 evens
3 1.4/1
4 2.6/1
5 4.8/1
6 9.5/1
7 20/1
8 47/1
9 121/1
10 349/1
11 1133/1
Latest Rasmussen Tracker :
McCain 44% .. Obama 49%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
333
I dont know why he bothered to call you Nick, He was hardly likely to get a quote from you that was non-supportive.
The biggest problem of course is that the reason why the guy asked you these questions is because the right answer to each of them is Yes.
New thread - “Will he make it beyond the end of the year?”
333- So why do you think Labour is doing so badly?
343. And UKIP’s decline will last as long as its voters think Cameron is on their side. If he doesn’t deliver substantial changes in policy and return a significant amount of powers to our Parliament they will rise again.
Labour said devolution would kill off Scottish and Welsh nationalism but an English Parliament would break up the UK. Can anyone tell us the logic in that. The opposite appears to have happened and calling England Britain all the time is fuelling English nationalism.
Labour MP calls for Brown to quit after by-election humiliation,
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4397000.ece
Is it time for Gordon Brown to go?,
http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/07/is_it_time_for_brown_to_go.html
Besides which, a lot of Tory voters aren’t happy with the EU commissars the party puts forward, so will likely vote UKIP next year anyway.
333.
! I did not relise he had been the candidate for 3 elections on the trot!
@354:
YES, OBVIOUSLY. IDIOTS.
I think is the answer they’re looking for.
Hi Mike, see my forcast:
1. Leadership challenge to Brown immediately after conference.
2. New leader elected in early November.
3. Brown resigns his seat in Late December.
4. Early GE in May.
So its 1434 and we have three calls for Gordon to go. 2 minnows and the usual suspects and one medium ranking Union leader who isn’t. What we realy ned now is a senior ex cainet minister to come out with a leaked interview for a sunday show.
I still think he won’t go. because it means a GE if he does. If he went at the beginning of a 3 month recess I hope Clegg and cameron ask for parliament to be recalled and a Confidence vote. We’d look like a bananna republic whic is why i think it won’t happen.
A 6 week leadership election hile the country was on holiday wuld have them peltd with rotten eggs.
I suppose the only plausible option would be the cabinet appointing a tempory leader (as the rules say) and them him/her being the only canidate. but they have played that trick before.
I think straw or harman goin to palace and becomming PM for 6 weks and then being replaced by someone else would be bananna republic territory as well.
basically which ever way you lok at it they are shafted. Completely shafted.
Boulton and Co has a scoop on the Labour spin lines to conceivable outcomes in Glasgow East..
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco