Will he make it beyond the end of the year?
July 25th, 2008
Are we now in the final days of the Brown premiership?
In the aftermath of Glasgow East the rumblings have started and the issue that’s going to dominate politics in the immediate future will be Gordon’s survival. Can he hang in there until the next election or will something bring the issue of his leadership to a head?
In May I got quite a lot of money on at 6-1 and 5-1 that he would be out during 2008. That bet might just be looking a little better.
After PB’s success predicting the by election let’s do the same over Brown’s leadership.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
1st
Yes, regrettably.
I got some of that 6-1, but I’m still voting yes. I’m always a pessimist about my bets, and I am strongly influenced by the fact that some of the conspirators have suggested anonymously that Sarah Brown could be persuaded to wield the dagger. If they don’t have enough oomph to pick up the dagger themselves, it’s not going to happen.
Labour said devolution would kill off Scottish and Welsh nationalism but an English Parliament would break up the UK. Can anyone tell us the logic in that. The opposite appears to have happened and calling England Britain all the time is fuelling English nationalism.
No - the MPs don’t have the nuts.
National Review: Obama’s speech an “unforced error”.
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YzNhMGRiOGE1YmZjN2JmNjhhNzdjZjBjYzUzMTcyMDA=&w=MA==
Why do the words “heads” and “sand” come to mind?
Hills have a press release out with some new/updated political prices.
http://www.williamhillmedia.com/index_template.asp?file=10472
They’ve dropped the price on GB to lose his seat at the next election from the 40/1 (which I put a few quid on) to 10/1 now.
I’m intrigued by the Scotland to become Independent of Britain by end May 2012 of pricing of 100/1. Assuming they had a vote in 2010 and the SNP won, could they enact legislation by 2012?
On topic, I think the 42-days and expenses votes show that Labour MPs aren’t interested in getting rid of him or staying in power any more. Most know that if they get rid of him they’ll be out of a job now, so may as well hang on, pocket some more taxpayer’s cash for a couple of years and get another job lined up.
New Thread: Will he cling on desperately to the end of the week?
New Thread: will he linger like a bad smell till teatime?
7 Scotland is part of the island of Britain so cannot physically be removed from this island, however it will probably leave the UK in the not too far distant future. Britain is an island, not the nation of England.
No chance of Brown leaving, too much of a ditherer. No chance of being forced out, Labour party MPs too weak. However this will be the best thing to happen for Tories - Lib Dems will come second in 2010 and the Labour party will disappear without trace.
Yes. Labour MPs mostly seem to be gutless and strongly hold the view that Gordon is a decent chap, if only everyone got to know him better..
7. Sorry GB now 8/1 to lose his seat.
“Will he make it beyond the end of the year?”
Yes.
He will not jump. He will have to be literally dragged out of No. 10 kicking and screaming.
Brown is like a puir wee spoilt bairn. Everything has come easy to him. A student politician who has never had a real job. He basically just never grew up. And he looks like all he really wants in this nasty big grown-up world that is enveloping him is a warm cuddle from his mammy.
The general rule of thumb with all these sorts of questions is that the person is always more likely to survive than the media suggests is the case. This is especially so of prime ministers.
I predict that Brown will not only be PM on 1/1/09 but on 1/1/10 as well (though not on 1/1/11).
Yes, Brown will make it to Jan 1st 2009 because he isn’t going voluntarily, or he would forever be accused of having run away scared after craving the PM role for the last 13/14 yrs.
Neither will the Cabinet knife him, as it would be like the crew of the Titanic saying “Captain, you’ve hit an iceberg, go and put your feet up in your cabin, whilst we choose a new Captain and try to save the ship”.
The misery will go on until 2010 and we’ll all just have to grin and bear it.
Hills offering odds on Scotland being independent by 2057?! Hate to say it, but most of you lot won’t be around to collect your winnings!!!
Latest Rasmussen Tracker :
McCain 44% .. Obama 49%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
12. He probably seems so, to them.
But that only tells you about how debased the word ‘decent’ has become to Labour MPs who have spent a decade enthusiastically spouting smears and lies at every turn.
“Out of 151 seats [the Progressive Conservatives in Canada in 1993] defended, they lost all but two.
When, a few days after writing my piece, I put this theory to a member of the cabinet: “I think you exaggerate,” came the reply. “We should win at least 100 seats next time.” Such is the scale of the ambition.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jul/25/glasgoweast.labour1
Good grief!
11 Labour MPs have as much strength as the former Scottish Tory MPs of 80s/90s. England will become Labour free by 2010 for good. No more Labour governments - good, but Lib Dems need to show that they will be an effective centre left party first.
The smart move for Labour MPs is replace Brown and fight a GE with a new Leader in their honeymoon period. Just as the smart move last October was to call a GE.
Labour lack the political intelligence to go for it and instead will just do nothing.
Mike, you cleverly ask the question in two different ways, so that we can all be right whatever the outcome.
My only feeling on this is that he won’t be forced out by his MPs as [5] “The Ghost..” says. They weren’t even able to rustle up a candidate to put up against him in the first place.
If he goes it will be his own choice. It’ll be because he’s lost hope that he could do anything to overcome the “perfidious media”, because he could see a brighter future as head of some supra-national body, or somesuch.
I don’t particularly rate it as that likely. I think he’s more likely to go on to the bitter end. Very bitter it will be too, for all concerned. Just as in 1995-1997.
22 The millipede will be even worse than Brown!
I took a punt and voted no, he won’t.
Surely enough is enough, even for the jellyfish.
People miss the point, for instance Hutton is rumoured to be facing the chop. If i were facing the chop and thought the boss was B*llox and i could do a better job.
Think Hutton could be chopped from the cabinet and lose his seat because of Brown. What has he to lose?
Labour MP calls for Brown to quit after by-election humiliation,
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4397000.ece
Is it time for Gordon Brown to go?,
http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/07/is_it_time_for_brown_to_go.html
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE (BUTT) poll of polls that indicates :
McCain 45% .. Obama 51% .. Others 4%
The PISSED Jack W Index with added SOAMES BIG MAC weighting shows :
McCain 127 .. Obama 261 .. Toss Up 150
Changes Since Last Projection - Minnesota moves from Safe Obama to Likely Obama. Mississippi moves from Toss Up McCain to Likely McCain.
Eliminate Toss Up States - 270 required for an Electoral College majority.
McCain 187 .. Obama 351.
Obama is the 44th President of the United States of America
……………………
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE …… Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
BUTT …… British Underpinned Tracking Totals
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
BIG MAC ..Ballot Indicies Grid Manifesting America’s Choice
Next GE 2010 - Labour obtain 15% of vote in England, 25% Scotland and Wales.
6. lol
Come on, Jack - what does yer ARSE say about Gordon?
I voted No by the way!
28 Nobody cares about Obama today Jack.
(perhaps Americans)
Many thanks to cymrumark, Peter the Punter, Double Carpet, Morus, Ernesto, Philippe Magnan, antifrank, Marquee Mark and Peter the Punter for all your kind remarks this morning.
22. If the new leader is young and talented, it’s not in his interest to get a GE mauling on his record. If the leader is part of the New Labour years, they wouldn’t do particularly better than Brown. Honeymoon effects are big, but shallow. They wouldn’t hold out over an election campaign. Getting in one of the old guard would just bring judgment day closer for MPs without much improved chance of holding on.
Obviously a good result for the SNP - though I thought that John Mason ,the winner, rather lost his dignity by arriving at the count in popstar mode and the constant thumbs up to those around him . I felt he failed to look the part really.
Certainly , a disastrous result for Labour - but we have been here before at Scottish By- elections. Indeed Labour’s defeats at the Govan By elections in late 1973 and late 1988 were a fair bit worse for them -both in terms of the Labour to SNP swing - and the fact that , being in opposition on both occasions, Labour lacked the excuse of mid term unpopularity.
he’ll be here because the alternative is worse. Bloody coup followed by an early general election. he goes in two circumstances
- he jumps. he won’t do it but sarah might push him on health grounds. the tick at PMQs has got worse and worse.
- complete anarchy in the party a la the charlie kennedy dparture. he was you remember literaly dragged out of cowley street and shot
5. “No - the MPs don’t have the nuts.”
They don’t really have the mechanism, either…
I’m starting to think no.
But I got Glasgow East dead wrong, I thought Labour would squeak it and LDs would come second, as Glasgow East wouldn’t be able to stomach the Tories. Perhaps I need to become a bit better at abandoning my own views.
Whoops, PtP slipped in twice there!
3 Antifrank
I got some of the 20/1 and I try to be objective about my prospects but there are some fundamental reasons why this one is not likely to come in (although it’s not impossible.) They have nothing to do with ‘bottle’ and the like; that’s just silly posturing by people who prefer name-calling to assessing odds.
Much more relevant is the years he has spent working his way towards becoming PM. Why would he give that up lightly?
Also, there’s no obvious alternative, a situation which was aggravated by the failure to hold a proper contest last time. If the next prospective PM didn’t see fit to stand against Brown before, why now? Didn’t they think then that he was likely to be a failure?
Nope, they’re stuck with him - and realistically I think their best chance is to stand (and go down) together.
By the way, I was amused by the fellow poster who aked what happened if Frank and Antifrank collided? Might be an old joke, but it made me smile.
Hi Mike, see my forcast:
1. Leadership challenge to Brown immediately after conference.
2. New leader elected in early November.
3. Brown resigns his seat in Late December.
4. Early GE in May.
I’ve just received information that senior Labour organisers have been called to a meeting in Basingstoke on Tuesday morning.
Anyone know what this might be about?
33. I care.
When do people think McCain will announce his veep?
41, thanks. An oldie but a goodie.
Spreadfair - Commons seats next UK GE
Con 335 - 348
Lab 233 - 248
LD 44 - 48
SNP 8.8 - 12.8
PC 3 - -
Next HoC = 650 seats.
38. Where there’s a will, there’s a way. Opening the cupboard door, etc….
34 That’s OK Stuart. If you are still sobering up we can all understand that.
Congratulations to the SNP, you’ve really made this a good day for England too! Well done and we English look forward to working with a new Scotland that looks forward. History is history, lets all move on.
43 really. Excitement. You have some good info today Dan.
44. I think it’s highly likely he does it around a week after Obama gets back from his trip.
43. Perhaps they are having a “relaunch” ?
#43. Whats this all about Dan? Can it be backstabbing time already?
51 - Both of them will avoid the olympics as a time to announce.
Having voted yes I got some irritating spam-type advert swanning around my screen - could Mike use a different poll-generator? (Or maybe it only appears if you give the answer Mike didn’t want
)
Incidentally, I was just speaking to a friend involved in the Senate campaign in North Carolina, and they seemed genuinely confident they could oust Dole, once the run-down to the election started. They also reckoned it was 50-50 that Obama could take the state too. Now there may be some bias here, but this friend is usually pretty level-headed, so make of it what you will. But if seats like NC fall to the Democrats, they are highly likely to get to the magic 60.
Well I’ve been predicting Brown’s demise for some time, in the sense that I don’t think he will lead Labour into the general election. However, that is not the same thing as saying that he will be gone by 1st Jan 2009 - my most favoured scenario was that he would go after the local/Euro election results in June 2009.
I think there is the hope within the PLP that the worst of the economic slowdown will be over by then and so a change at that point would be the optimum moment. The recent falling back in both commodity prices and interbank rates lends some support to this scenario. Also the IMF has raised its growth forecasts for both the UK and the world economy - they are still slower than recent years, but they do not support the doomsters that post economic comments here from time to time.
So, the theory goes, if Gordon goes later rather than sooner he can take quite a bit of the blame for the economic worries of the past year or so with him. Things will look a bit more optimistic, and anyway the public realises that the UK government is not to blame for the credit crunch or the rise in commodity prices.
And if there is no improvement in Labour’s fortunes by next Summer MPs will be desperate enough to do anything.
The Galsgow result makes it nmore likely that Brown will be forced out soo ner - I now think that it is about 50/50 that he goes this year and 50/50 next year. I see no prospect of him holding on beyond next Summer.
As a Labour supporter my personal view is that he should go sooner rather than later - the longer he stays the longer any possible fightback under a new leader is delayed, and time is not now on our side.
Of course Gordon will not go.
Labour MPs have not the willngness of the nous to make him go.
And:
Gordon Brown has not schemed for 20 years to be PM to leave after 13 months. he’s got a job to do: screw up the country AND make Labour unelectable for a generation.
If he leaves now, his job will be incomplete.
Seriously, no Scots Presbterian will give up: he’ll work more hours, visit more countries and go on and on about his task of steering the UK through these difficult times. Whatever he is, he’s not a quitter: it’s not in his genes.
But it’s in the genes of most Labour MPs (Nick is an honourable exception). They are bewitched bothered baffled and bewildered.
Best song for the next GE: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9MZ_CXzleXM
58
Presbyterian..
41 - It is a good joke and it makes me smile too. I shall have to keep safely at least at keyboard’s distance from him.
20-1 - wow, that’s what I call value betting.
55. No you get it either way!
No need to know which way you voted Nick, it a case of:- Is the Pope Catholic?
Incidentally, if Gordon does stay, rebellions will be more frequent as MP’s will have less reason to toe the party line.
Brown will stay because it’s the economy, stupid.
The only MP I can see who might gain from provoking a contest is Harriet Harman. Since I have already backed Brown to go this year, there is no reason to back HH at what I suspect are the same sort of odds that will be available when the vacancy actually occurs.
I voted Yes, he will still be PM at 2009’s start.
Had to think about it though. The next few days could easily change that if the Cabinet doesn’t back him properly or at all.
58 - yep, it’s 1995 all over again. Time for Labour to grin and bear it, and hope in vain, as Tories had no option but to do in 1995/6.
Except that by this time in 1995, Major had at least secured something of a mandate by putting himself up for re-election by his MPs thus putting the leadership issue to bed before the election. Brown hasn’t got the balls for that of course…
44/51
from RCP:
“McCain May Act Soon on VP Pick
Aides Predict Announcement Before Olympics”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/24/AR2008072403773.html?hpid=topnews
49. Thanks francis! Our very best wishes to the movement for the re-establishment of an English Parliament.
43. If they are going to Basingstoke, the intention is clearly not to try to lift their spirits.
65 Bob Sykes “Brown hasn’t got the balls for that of course…”
Brown has got Balls but they are not his own.
Perhaps Labour organisers are meeting to organise canvases in previously safe seats which they didn’t need to bother with before.
It was the lack of organisation that cost Labour Glasgow East. It was not knowing that there was no organisation when they called the election that was as unforgivable.
Boulton and Co has a scoop on the Labour spin lines to conceivable outcomes in Glasgow East..
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco
54. The Obama campaign is sponsoring one of the channel’s Olympic coverage.
Hills offering 5/6 that Brown makes it to the end of the year. That has to be value.
33 test. The US markets are open 24 hrs a day not just on SNP high days and holidays !!
31 limesmoothie. ARSE is the nations pre-eminent pollster not a political journalist !!
You’ll have to ask the combined wisdom of JNN and WIND.
66 - Specially for you M. Magnan (and I got 100% on the speech quiz earlier, that’s what you get for actually listening to it!)
“We declare anew to our fellow citizens of the world: Freedom is not the sole prerogative of a chosen few; it is the universal right of all God’s children.”
7 - The best price on that press release is:
Labour to win Back Glasgow East At The Next Election: 8/11
Should be 1/6 or shorter. Not on their website (though it wouldn’t do me any good, I’m officially banned!)
34. Yes, well done on your by-election victory, Stuart.
Looking forward to one in Motherwell & Wishaw?
67 Scotland is now mature enough and ready to go for independence. Why should anyone (Labour/Lib/Cons) force them to remain part of the UK?
@78:
I feel the same way about Tower Hamlets.
77 - What do you know Alan J? What’s happening to Frank Roy?
77 I’m sensing that Motherwell and Wishaw date might be pushed back a tad. Malawi will have to wait for Jack a bit longer.
80 I think he’s referring to the Scottish Parliament seat, Morus
This may have been asked before but did Dr Reid help much in Glasgow East?
83. No and Labour sources are blaming him according to the TV earlier! In other words No.10 is blaiming him!
John Reid was a notable absentee.
77.
There’s going to be another by-election in Scotland and it’s a SNP Labour marginal. It’s a Holyrood seat though. This one will definately be down to health so out of decency it’s better not to mention where. As for Motherwell and Wishaw - forget it, there’s no way Brown will risk it. Jack might want to teach Brown a lesson but he’s got a cushthy job in Milawi as a reward for his loyalty..
85 - Apparantly he is saying he was there last week but is away on a long planned holiday. Make of that what you will.
NickP seems remarkably chipper today. Last night’s result great for Labour I guess, in that more chance of Brown going = more chance of retaining seat.
Tribune article written before election result.
“UP TO 10 Cabinet ministers have confided that Gordon Brown should quit as Prime Minister before the next general election if Labour is to stand a chance of winning it.”
“at least three members of Mr Brown’s top table are reported to be prepared to “do something about it” ”
http://tinyurl.com/5cnhzv
86 - Yes, I have heard the same. So that’s one by-election upcoming and the McConnell one likely parked.
If they lose another seat in Scotland….. How many times can Gordon take the punches before he stays on the canvas?
I understand that Gord will soldier on and on and on.
I couldn’t possibly comment that Gord is about to apply to become crown steward and bailiff for the Chiltern Hundreds
As an instrument of resignation, the role is usually alternated[citation needed] with that of Steward and Deputy Steward of the Manor of Northstead in Yorkshire. Under the Act of Settlement, any Member of Parliament accepting an office of profit under the Crown must give up his or her seat. An MP applies for the office to the Chancellor of the Exchequer, who usually then signs a warrant appointing the now former MP. The Chancellor can in theory deny an application, although the last time this happened was to Viscount Chelsea in 1842.[2] The appointee holds the office until such time as another MP is appointed, or they apply to be released.
The position is currently vacant. The last Crown Steward and Bailiff was David Davis, however he was released from the post by the Chancellor immediately after his appointment in order to fight the by-election he had triggered—he would have been ineligible to resume his seat whilst still holding his “office of profit” (supposing that he won the by-election). [3]
As a Labour Party member for many years it pains me to say that I was banking on a Labour defeat so that the party would be forced to dump Gordon Brown. He just doesn’t connect with ordinary voters and has made two diabolical errors over the last year (the election that never was – or, more to the point, the inauthentic reasons for cancelling it - and the abolition of the 10p tax band). A Labour victory in Glasgow would have meant Gordon staggering on and leading us over a cliff in 2010. In the much missed Blair years we got used to winning. With Gordon we are doomed.
Dont want to make too much of it, but Cabinet seats for UUP members and SNP in Cameron’s Conservative Party (less room for Conservatives)
Plus loyal servants of the party treated like this:
“But Sir Nicholas told the Macclesfield Express yesterday that he was the victim of an “illegal ageist campaign” by unelected advisors who he described as “peddlers of lies”.
He added: “In some quarters there is a group of people who want to see the back of me and Ann. They may well be David Cameron’s sort of mafia that you get around a leader.
“If David Cameron hasn’t got the courage to speak to me personally then I don’t think that reflects very well on him.”
Perhaps not every thing will be sweetness and light in the months ahead.
@87:
Not too little, not too much.
Seeing Ballcrusher steering Labour to an angry defeat would definitely be worth the price of admission.
The Economist’s take:
http://media.economist.com/images/na/2008w30/Brown.jpg
89 My guess for the 3 cabinet ministers prepared to do something are James Purnell, Geoff Hoon and John Hutton.
@92:
The Wintertons? Dave should have them taken outside and quietly euthanised on the terrace, for the good of the species.
92: Loyal party servants? Lol!
Only thing they’re loyal to is their expense account.
92. Sir Nick may be a loyal servant of his own bank balance but he’s not one of the Conservative party.
86. But surely he can’t be an MSP and high panjandrum in Malawi at the same time?
Of course, there’s a council by-election in Glasgow to look forward to now, and presumably all the parties will now have canvass returns?
The Wintertons - surely the embodiment of Conservatism.
96 92; No, Dave will do much better to give them a public flogging. No point in doing it quietly.
71 Maggie Thatcher fan that is a wonderful link
allow me to quote
“A careless Labour party official has mislaid a ‘lines to take’ document intended for government ministers, following the Glasgow East by-election humiliation.
As luck would have it, it’s fallen into my hands. It was clearly written before the result was declared.
It begins…..
(Glasgow Win) Glasgow East was a good result, but that doesn’t mean we are complacent……..
(Glasgow other) this is clearly a bad night for us and we will all take this result seriously.
(Gordon doorstep and speech tone if possible) Gordon will be getting on with job……
Is GB going to survive? Absolutely. The Labour party knows GB’s strengths….
How can the Labour party win the next election given this result? We will not be complacent in the face of voters worries…..
XX Union are saying this is the nail in the coffin for New Labour. Is it? Not at all………
The Blairite’s must be despairing of GB - the legacy draining away? Are divisions opening up? No. New Labour is committed to getting the country through the tough times…”
99 - they’ll never let Joke MConnell resign his seat now, not for the forseeable.
Of course, lovely council by-election….wonder who’ll win?
100. Jeez- on the day Nu Lab get a pounding and the thread is “will Brown survive” you are obsessed with a 70yr old MP with zero influence on his last tour of duty - surely the embodiment of a party languishing at 15% in the polls ?
77. Thanks Alan J! Congrats to Ian Robertson. He did well in the circumstances.
Just for fun, here is the result from the Motherwell & Wishaw constituency at the Scottish parliamentary general election in May 2007:
1. Lab (Jack McConnell, First Minister of Scotland) 12574 (48.1%)
2. SNP 6636 (25.4%)
3. Con 1990 (7.6%)
4. SSCUP 1702 (6.5%)
5. LD 1570 (6.0%)
6. SCP 1491 (5.7%)
7. ATP 187 (0.7%)
Should be fun!
100. Yawn. The disgust which most Conservatives feel towards the Wintertons can be starkly compared to Labour’s equivalent: Ed Balls. He was chucked 100 grand for a week’s imaginary work from Brown’s personal slush fund (blatantly abusing charitable status).
Martin, if you killed all the members of the Conservative party who behave and think like the Wintertons you would have a considerably smaller party.
90.
I voted in this poll that Brown would still be leader. He sees himself as above the party. He’ll take the party and the union down with him. The problem in Labour is that there’s no obvious candidate ro replace him.
There’s two ways of looking at this for nationalists. 1) With Brown in charge it looks like Scots are part of the union. 2) Brown is so bad we could do with him staying. Personally, I’d like to see him going and Westminster becoming even more remote and foreign looking.
105. Can the SCP posh the LDs into 6th ?
The Wintertons - a big boil on the back of human progress
The Wintertons are just two very stupid people that have no sense of “doing the right thing”. Alas it will all end in tears and by going to the media they will invite even more exposure of their dubious practices. Why would any sensible person choose to do that? The answer is that they are not sensible and have learned nothing from the Hamilton’s experience. Just sit back and watch the car crash in the tabloids. Dacre will enjoy running the anti-Tory mp stuff.
@107:
Shush now with your leftie slanders.
That said, I was hopeful that Spink and Conway were indicative of a Great Purge of the ranks, and that it was only a matter of time till a tide of righteous anger washed away the Wintertons and the other bed blockers from our backbenches.
It’s taking longer than I’d like.
34 Stuart make the most of the momemnt
all the best
Wow Labour aren’t short of celebrity supporters. Vera Duckworth popped up her blue rinsed head during Crewe & Nantwich by-election and the BBC seem to have the Blur drummer (failure) on the list of potential parliamentary candidates at the next GE. They really are scraping the bottom of the barrel.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/7524821.stm
106, What I don’t get is why the Wintertons have been allowed to stay in the modern ‘non-nasty’ Conservative Party. Anne Winterton’s steady drip of racist ‘jokes’ should have been enough to have her kicked out long ago.
Now they’ve been found to have been on the fiddle as well.
Slinging unsubstantiated muck at Ed Balls is no excuse or alibi!
114 - Maybe it will be third time lucky for Mr Rowntree, although in Cities of London & Westminster perhaps not.
115. Martin Bell should be recalled to Cheshire to perform another great service to the nation…
115. I’d hope it was “when” not “if” the dagger falls.
This weekend would be a good time to bury bad news (or a hatchet)
There are three key issues in my view.
Firstly, would replacing Brown inevitably lead to an immediate or prompt General Election, as opined by Jack Straw on The Today programme? If so I see little point, unless he was replaced in 2009 or 2010, shortly before an election.
Secondly, if he is to be replaced, when would be the best time for that to happen for Labour? Now; to give his successor a chance to turn round the governmants fortunes and make a favourable impression on the electorate? Or later; so that Brown takes more of the heat for the pesent economic difficulties.
Thirdly, who would be a good replacement?
My answers to my own questions are that Brown should go now, Jack Straw should replace him and Straw should argue that as an election has to happen before too long, he has revised his view for the need for one immediately.
But so many factors, so many views. I don’t think it will actually happen.
I think the smarter among the English posters here realise that Glasgow East was not just about a protest vote. Independence by 2012 is a good bet.
Couple of points here. If the SNP get a majority of the Scottish Westminster seats then that has long been considered an automatic mandate for independence. I mean how can there be a union of most Scottish MPs don’t want to be in the union parliament? The question of legitimacy arises. The question of a referendum on independence is a big issue in Scotland now. Over 80% of the population want to have one. The LibDems are vulnerable on this subject (they are supposed to be democrats) and their vote is crumbling in the direction of the SNP. They may well back the referendum and join a co-alition with the SNP or face electoral wipe-out. Labour in Scotland have said they will not stand in the way of a referendum. Salmond plans to hold it on St. Andrews day in 2010. This will be after Brown loses the election and Scotland is under a Tory government it didn’t vote for.
The choice will be English public school boy Tory London government or Alex Salmond and independence. I don’t have to tell you where my money will be:O)
@115:
I *think* that Dave’s been hoping that by isolating them within the party, they’d eventually drift off to some trough more profitable.
Only now they’re starting to make a fuss, which means that Dave’s going to have to deal with them in a more public, humiliating way than would otherwise be necessary.
He gave them an opportunity to GTFO quietly and with dignity. They declined that opportunity. Now they have to suffer.
I cannot believe that they think they can get away with gifting their property to their children for IHT purposes and then charge the taxpayer the *Fair rent* they have to pay for the transfer to be potentially excempt (Depending on how long they live after the gift).
I mean they are not actually paying the rent! It is very dodgy and they should be deslected by their local ass. If i were Cameron and he gets any more shit off them i would withdraw the whip.
117 - indeed, but could he be cloned?
115: It’s simply rather hard to get long-term MPs deselected.
As for unsubstantiated, here are the facts: Balls was paid over 10 grand/month for 8 months, and the only work produced was two tiny pamphlets. More damningly, he was never seen at the Smith Institute offices, and there’s no evidence he even wrote the pamphlets himself.
117. Or he could go to Morley in yorkshire or a next door seat.
108 When you say Westminster is foreign looking do mean filled with ethnic minority MPs or too English for the Scots? I assume you are an ex-pat Scots Nat and very happy at the moment. Savour the moment and enjoy it. Regards from an English Nationalist.
I understand all the major issues that have had a negative impact (economy, Iraq War, 42 Days detention etc) but I believe there are a host of daily news items that cause most people to slap their foreheads in amazement and despair that underline the current mood of discontent.
And all these are the product of Labour’s target and control culture which have created a class of lower-ranked jobsworths whose sole aim in life is to boss the rest of us around.
With these people rules are rules and there’s no room for simple, common sense.
Take today’s Telegraph, for instance (and I’m sure most of these stories will have appeared in all the papers.
1) Rejected asylum seekers can stay - officials who didn’t do their jobs properly, get a free pass and just throw their hands up and say ‘Whatever’
2) Binmen refuse to remove garden wast collection because a twig in the bin was 5mm too thick - nobody can tell visually that a twig is too thick by that small a margin and so must have measured it because they were looking NOT to do the job properly
3) Dorset Police seek unpaid volunteers to watch CCTV footage - more jobsworths given power over the rest of us
4) Self-employed decorator is fined by local authority for smoking in his van - privately registered and used only for going to and from his work
5) LibDem councillor troubled by noisy teenage gang is charged with racial abuse for telling them to ‘Go Home and make the noise where they live’ - what happened to the troublemakers? Nothing, it seems.
And so it goes on, day after day, coverage of a host of stories where petty officialdom raise the standard for pettifogging bossiness to new heights. These all add up to a feeling of being pushed from pillar to post and ground down into unquestioning conformity to meet NuLabour’s objectives.
And to make us feel better? The idea is floated that all primary schoolchildren should have a free hot meal at school. Another example of the State taking over what should be every parent’s personal responsibility - to make sure their child is fed.
124. Withdraw the whip then their F***ed!
Labour aren’t as patient as they used to be. Brown I look at this is very simple. But, Last Projection will still remain the same.
The Winterton affair is now being reported beyond the Macclesfield Express..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/conservative/2455511/Tory-MP-Nicholas-Winterton-accuses-David-Camerons-mafia-of-trying-to-force-him-out.html
@129:
I’m glad they put “unknowingly” in scare quotes.
It wouldn’t do to have people believe the Wintertons were innocent.
A Conservative insider told The Daily Telegraph: “The ruling by the Parliamentary Commissioner meant that there was not enough there to withdraw the whip.
“We are left relying on the local party to make moves to de-select them - and most people very much hope that is what happens.”
YES, he will still be PM on Jan 1st 2009! But I’m not as confident as I was just this time yesterday. How can labour keep going on like this? Yet, how can Labour get rid of him? They are caught between a rock and a hard place.
131.
Mind you i suppose looking at it objectively is it any worse than an MP who takes equity out of his house and claims the mortgage interest off the state - something i think Blair is alleged to have done.
133: That’s more like an interest free loan though. The Wintertons essentially claimed 165 grand to rent their own home from themselves.
120. Thanks Alex, I taken a little of the 100/1 with Hills as a trading bet as I’m sure as the time gets closer to 2010 the calls for independence will get louder and some other markets will open up where it will come in handy.
Sky launch new poll tracker, going back to 1983…
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Interactive%20Graphics/Poll%20Tracker
[note, Mike, it uses averaging by Michael Thrasher
]
http://www.skypressoffice.co.uk/SkyNews/Resources/showarticle.asp?id=2521
For our Great Leader; beware the ides of september.:)
Basingstoke? Whats there that have rumers circulating?
134. What the Wintertons have done is put their house into trust for their kids and let the tax payer pay for it. In my book they are equally as bad as Blair. This is because Blair took equity out of his house and asked the tax payer to foot the bill. Both knowingly requested assistance from the tax payer to support a voulantry arrangement that did not have to occur. Blair and the wintertons failed to mitigate their claims in other words.
136. Thats a fun little graphgic to play around with. Good find! We’ll be able to look back in years to come and see how the polls were telling us the Tories were going to win a landslide years before the event.
Impressive that Cameron - gets a problem and deals with it decisively, err not quite.
Francis,
Nothing to do with colour etc. No, I mean right now in Scotland we have to watch the ‘national news’ which means the world through the eyes of the English. Added to that we hear on all the news stories about health and education stories for example which are irrelevant to Scotland. Gordon Brown has more relevance to the lives of the English than he does to Scots because Salmond runs a government that covers these domestic issues and more. People in Scotland don’t really follow Brown’s leadership and policies as much as the English do..
That said the fact that Brown is Scottish makes some people in Scotland think that the union is still relevant to Scotland. When he’s replaced by an Engish leader that sandbag will be gone too.
Before the parliament and before the SNP government people in Scotland would have been very proud of a Scottish PM. Not that many care anymore.
I heard a rumour that Salmond was considering standing against Brown in Brown’s own seat at the next Westminster election.
Thanks for the congratulations. I follow Scottish politics very closely (whilst living in Madrid) and was twice formerly an SNP candidate.
The conservative party can do withouy the likes of the Wintertons.
They are past their sellby date, and are an old model that needs obliterating.:_(
137. Either Labour have negoitated a large dollop of cash from the unions and it is a restruturing gathering or it is a leadership challange or the Labour party is about to go bankrupt!
re 53 Perhaps it’ll be an announcement of an August 29th general election.
You can’t ditch Brown until you have someone to replace him with. Therein lies the problem. I can’t see many labourites looking into the bathroom mirror each morning and asking “If not me, who? If not now, when?”.
So Brown’s best hope for survival is that there is no one else willing or able to take up the mantle and go down to glorious defeat, sacrificing their own hopes for high office in the process.
It further remains to be seen if Labour or Brown is the problem. I suspect both - replacing Brown may slow the descent for a while with a dead cat bounce in the polls, but not alter the outcome.
If this is the case, the sensible thing in Labour eyes is to soldier on to the bitter end with the present management, leaving the future hopefuls of the party unscathed, and then they can flower out of the ruins of a huge electoral defeat.
Further to this event (presumably in 2010), there is then the question of what the Labour Party stands for. This battle - inevitable since the rise of New labour and the abandonment of clause 4 etc - has never been fought. If Labour decides to revert to socialism, it will again become unelectable. If it decides to move to the right, it will go through an intense period of schism between left and right until the old guard finally disappears, and will also cause issues with trade union affiliation and funding of the party.
So while Brown is the current problem, the fundamental underlying issue is - what is Labour’s political future and philosophy?
143. Morally, intellectually or financially?
The American MSM are certainly dancing to a merry tune with McCain’s spin regarding the apparently “imminent” VP-pick. What’s that now, four days in a row the McCain camp have name dropped someone different and the media have lapped it up?
135 Caveman
I’ve placed similar speculative trading bets along such lines, but you have to remember that there would probably need to be a majority in favour of Scottish independence in the whole of the UK, not just Scotland. I think that might be the stumbling block.
147 - I think that might be their best way of passing it, PtP!
145. All three!
Maybe it is a gang of four moment? A breakaway Blairite party perhaps?
Peter the Punter,
That’s wrong. If either Scotland or England vote ‘yes’ in an independence referendum the other party’s opinion is constitutionally irrelevant.
As for Brown… one wonders when the next relaunch is going to be? And whether it will coincide with a reshuffle. Is it even worth it? The deckchairs on the Titanic suddenly spring to mind…
And in any case, it would be too late due to the parliamentary recess and the Silly Season now well underway.
In the PBC political competition at the start of this year, I answered 366 to all the questions on the number of days the named Cabinet ministers would last. My thinking was that Brown would be too loyal and too much of a ditherer to change things up. Could it actually come true?
113. Thanks cymrumark! Don’t you worry about us!
All the best to our friends in Wales and Cornwall.
I’ve had a great day today. In addition to Glasgow East, I just drove my brand new car out the showroom. First time I’ve ever bought a new one, instead of an old banger. Just a shame the A/C doesn’t work in the office
@147:
I don’t think so. After all, the UK has already recognized the consent principle as enshrined in the Good Friday Agreement. A precedent has been set that the UK should not stand in the way of Scottish independence were a majority of Scots to vote for it.
LOL! You men a ‘…get rid of the bastards vote’?!! No, no, no, we can’t have that, Morus.
Personally I like the country and the people and can only wish them well. My instincts would be to let them have independence if they really want it, but I honestly think it’s not a great idea, so I’d be torn.
154 you mean….
137 a plausible guess is that it is to communicate the cuts that Labour is having to make.
150 You sure, Alex? I’m no expert, but that sounds wrong to me.
Happy to defer to those who know better though.
151 Brown cannot have another relaunch as he has used up all the different ways of relaunching.
Scotland to be independant of Britain by May 2012? £2500 to £25 we have dealt!
158 He’ll relaunch the relaunch - sounds like Monty Python!!!
It’s less a case of ‘relaunch’ with Brown than a case of a submarine descending ever further into the murky depths of political oblivion.
153. If Northern Ireland had oil we might not have so sanguine about it…
Sure Scotland can have independence, but we’re keeping about 91.5% of the remaining oil…
I don’t think it is as bitter as that, but there is an extent to which the English feel they are paying over the odds to keep Scotland, and that “if it thinks it would do better on its own, then who are we to complain about a tax rebate?” (I’m not getting in to whether this is true or not - I simply don’t care).
I’d be sorry to see the break-up of the Union, but would accept such a result. For me, the real problem is like divorce - who gets the assets. All positive cases for Scottish independece depend upon them getting the majority of North Sea Reserves - the UK will never cede those reserves, especially not at the moment, so its stalemate - because anything other than a complete win in those negotiations would be a disaster, for either side.
If someone explains how we get past that, then ok, but for now I think agreeing to the principle of Independence is a somewhat moot point.
141 I certainly hope Scotland gets its own TV. Many English view the BBC as anti-English and pro-union.
157 - Not to mention your financial interest, Peter!
Off in a while to the monthly meeting. will be interesting to find out what fellow members feel about last night.
For the first time I am feeling really despondent about labour’s chances off getting back in next time.maybe we are past the tipping point now.
At the moment I see no point in trying to change leaders,but was disappointed with Gordon’s speech at Warwick today. Said nothing new.
On the other hand, and to disappoint the Tory posters on this site, who are understandably revelling in Labour’s troubles, I do not see a melt down of the party.
Independence for Scotland-maybe. Independence for Wales-can’t see it in my lifetime.
Re 144 re 53 August 29th GE?
Can’t think of a better day for it. It’s my 44th Wedding Anniversary
Brown’s relaunches are like the early days of the Ariane rocket
Martin,
“UK should not stand in the way of Scottish independence were a majority of Scots to vote for it.”
The UK will still exist when Scotland and England become independent countries. Northern Ireland is a provence. Scotland and England are constituent members of Great Britain. After independence there will be two new states and England will have its old principality of Wales as an annex (though I doubt for very long).
The big story is that England is the largest stateless nation in the EU. It will join the UN as a new entity and have to renegotiate its itnernational treaties etc. The rights of the state of GB will be gone on the security council etc. England isn’t ready for independence. The English don’t really understand the constitution of Britain and will be caught cold. By contrast we Scots have debated it ad nauseum and understand the issues very well. You wouldn’t believe that reading/watching the rubbish about it that you do from the London press and media. The arrogance that England and Britain are interchangeable means that there will be a shock in the English body politics.
I think it will be good for England to be just England. I imagine the politics of that country will change dramatically as they seek to discover their new place in the world and what it is that they want England to be. Neither political party have any idea about where to start that debate.
169 Yes but Wales doesn’t need independence for Labour to have a meltdown. On present form if the seat is either not one of the most deprived in the Country or located in the Valleys you are looking at being beaten everywhere by the not Labour party in Wales.
@172:
Great Britain is an island. Scotland cannot possibly leave Great Britain, not unless the SNP plans to develop some remarkable new breakthroughs in tectonics.
167- Thats because they are all lefties, and as George Orwell said, the left (including most English leftists) *HATE* England.
162. Your on! Scotland to acheive independence but not until 2014, when we will all be commwmorating the 100th anniversary of WW1. The war that saw Europe fracture into myriad independant states. They’ll sneak it through then.
172. If Scotland voted for independence, then the England-Wales-Northern Ireland bloc would be considered the successor state. Then if Northern Ireland and Wales were the ones that left that remainder, England would be the successor state. Don’t think we would lose our treaties or place at the security council.
167. Please don’t attribute your own views to that of the English at large..
The odds of 5/6 available from Wm Hill on Brown NOT having left office by 31 December 2008 look stonking good value to me(unlike the opposite bet that he will be gone by that date, available at the same odds). Effectively Politics has packed up for the next 10 weeks and he appears absolutely safe until the Annual Labour Party Conference. Looking beyond then, an election for a new leader would be virtually impossible during December for obvious reasons, so it’s very difficult to see how a challenge could realistically be made within this timeframe - Spring 2009 is a much more likely prospect IMO. The only realistic scenario over the next 5 months is that he decides to quit on ill health grounds, but to give up everything he’s longed and fought for over the last 20 years seems a long shot.
Following on from the prescience of PBers in the poll in judging the outcome of yesterday’s Glasgow East By-Election, the current state of play in the poll relating to Gordon’s survival prospects at the top of this thread, suggest that the odds on his remaining in office beyond the end of this year should be not more than 1-2. Indeed, Betfair’s odds AGAINST his going in either Qtrs 3 or 4 suggest much the same.
With the chances of his departure this year diminishing with each passing day, these odds surely aint going to last any time at all.
I’ve had a ton on him seeing in the New Year in Downing Street.
174- Of course back in the old old old old old old olden days, they were seperate.
I used to think that there would never be border controls between England and Scotland even if the later became independent, this however has changed my opinion…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7523435.stm
171. Also reminiscent of the Columbia space shuttle launch - but minus the grieving onlookers.
Peter the Punter,
A nation’s right to self-determination is enshrined in UN charter.
In Scots constitutional law the Scots are sovereign. We have no tradition of parliamentary sovereignty like the English. If Salmond holds a consultative referendum and the people vote for independence there is no law that can stop us.
In political terms there is no way there will be a UK wide referendum on Scottish independence. There’s no international precedent for that either. It’s just a sort of urban myth based on notions of parliamentary sovereignty.
New Keith Frederick Poll for Colorado :
McCain 41% .. Obama 45%
http://cbs4denver.com/politics/mccain.obama.colorado.2.779088.html
172- Since you are in Spain, how do you feel about Catalonian independence?
167. The BBC are very evidently left leaning. More than that I should say. Hence all their pundits, but especially Nick Robinson, were crying into their coffee this morning.:)
174. Northern Scotland was part of the N. American plate at one time. So if they’re planning to leave, maybe they know something we don’t.
Just made some certain money on Brown going or staying. I had £100 on him departing in 2008 at 5-1 with Hills. Now I’ve bet £250 at 5-6 that he will stay.
182 I thought both the Czechs and Slovaks had a say.
174. Wouldn’t rule it out. Salmond is an ambitious man!
177. It would act as a catalyst for renegotiation I think. The EU would probably want the seat and cite some treaty clause and the smaller population of “lesser Britain” as a reason for it.
Also, it would mean a redesign of our flag, weaken the monarchy, reduce our influence within the Commonwealth, probably accelerate moves towards Republics in Australia, Canada and others, make the Commonwealth more squabblesome and generally lead to a decline in British world influence.
How could we ever preach nation building and collaboration to our neighbours when we can’t even hold our own together??
I really don’t want to go down this road.
Socrates, if you’re about - You suggested on the last thread that unemployment was lower in the UK than lefty European countries. I think if you add together the number of people unemployed with those judged incapable of working, the figures tend to be quite similar.
160 - PtP can you really see a situation where the Scots vote for independence and then ask the rest of the UK for permission to go through with it?! I dont think it will happen in the next 20 years but if the Scots vote for independence then that is surely that.
189- I do. Why the hell should be be sening our Army half way round the world on the orders of America? Instead of “nation building” and “world influence”, how about we concentrate on making England better?
189. casino royal.
We dont need to re-design our flag; we have the Cross of St. George already.:)
172 Alex. Most English people want independence and the union to split. We want independence too, it’s just we keep getting this pro-union crap all the time.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Wintertons join UKIP, they’d have three MP’s then!!
This is mentioned in Christopher Duggan’s book, ‘The Force of Destiny’ a history of Italy since 1796.
Apparently Rossini’s, ‘William Tell’ couldn’t be performed in Italy for many years because of its anti-Austrian theme. So the opera was revamped and dealt with the Scots being oppressed by the English and called ‘Rudolph of Stirling’
Does anyone out there have any other information on this.
187 Mike - Amazing that Hills apparently have not identified this arb opportunity available within their own book - pile in everyone, it’s free money, well maybe for the next few minutes.
Scotland won’t go independent. They do far too well out of the present system, and I mean politically as much as financially. You just have to look at similar situations in Europe - the Basques and the Catalans, for instance. What they do is extract maximum leverage plus lots of cash from Madrid by constantly threatening independence, but not following through.
And in those cases there is a history of violent central repression, plus (most importantly) different languages. Yet still they haven’t quite seceded.
Same goes for Quebec.
As for Brown I voted Yes: I think he will go. And yet it is hard to see how and when it will happen. But then it is always hard to foresee how “dramatic” events will actually happen. Who would’ve predicted Thatcher’s fall six months before it happened?
But the Darwinian instinct for survival must surely kick in at some point amongst the lefties. It is plainly apparent Brown is leading Labour to disaster and many of his MPs to the back of the dole queue. Therefore his MPs will eventually grab at anything, however unlikely, that might save their careers - even David Miliband.
I reckon if Brown’s poll figures haven’t sharply improved by the Conference he’s crispbread.
New Rasmussen Poll for New Mexico :
McCain 43% .. Obama 49%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_mexico/election_2008_new_mexico_presidential_election
190 The other way of looking at it is to look at rates of employment, where the UK scores pretty well compared to most advanced economies.
192. Because the world is an interdependent web and you can’t build a wall to keep the outside out.
193- Cry God for Harry, England and St George!
“Alex. Most English people want independence and the union to split. We want independence too, it’s just we keep getting this pro-union crap all the time.”
Speak for yourself. You don’t speak for this Englishman.
189. Britain has become a joke on the international scene. We aren’t a proper nuclear power, we just ride on the coattails of the Americans (look where that has got us) and if the Canadians, Aussies, New Z’s don’t want to keep our embarrasment of a monarchy who can blame them?
197 France and Spain cannot be compared to England. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are not part of England, they are part of the UK, and this is the key problem with devolution. Cornwall is more like the Catalans because it has its own celtic culture but is still in England.
Does Brown want to go down as the man who was in hock to the unions, destroyed the Union and signed Britain to the European Union?
199. Because mother’s with young children have to work and pensioners can’t afford to retire?
200- Yeah, look at those stupid French and Germans. Man, they must be so gutted by not having sent troops to Iraq. How we laugh at them now…
204
Actually I’ve always thought the Cornish were more like the ‘North Koreans’ than anybody else!!
187 Yes, and can I just say how helpful I found WILLIAM HILL a few minutes ago.
I clicked on the wrong button and mistakenly had £120 on Brown staying, rather than leaving. A phone call to their Customer Services department put the matter right. They voided the original bet and allowed me to substitute the one I intended - all very prompt, helpful and courteous.
What makes it all the more impressive is that I was efffecting a similar lay off, Mike, against the bets I struck at 20/1 some months back!
Well done, Will Hill.
@202:
Yeah, Alex, please don’t put words in our mouths.
I think that Scottish independence is both impractical and foolhardy, for all partners in the UK venture.
20 Stuart Dickson.The Guardian article is “Can Labour make itself electable now” by John Kampfner.The resounding answer is NO - particularly by the commentators. For those on this site who support the Left and resent the quite mild response here to current events by Conservatives,I recommend they read the comments - almost without exception,the professed Labour supporters 1) believe Labour will be wiped out (100 seats or less) at the GE 2)show a deep loathing for the present government 3)suggest Labour deserves to lose 4) have little or no objection to a Cameron government.All expressed in a virulent style, which would be considered a bit over the top on here! Interesting to have NickP opinion - I found it astonishing.
202- There was a poll in the Telegraph that showed about 50% of the English want England to leave the UK
191 Neil - I’m afraid it’s not my area, so I am happy to defer to those who have some knowledge. You may well be right.
Thanks for the comment.
204. I’m sorry, but how is Cornwall’s culture any more Celtic than say Devon, or Cumbria?
Now that the dust is settling after yesterday’s vote, it was beyond anything I had expected when this campaign started.
Congrats to Jack W and Easterross for their calls on this seat.
On the eve of poll my heart and my head were going in opposite directions. This was Labour’s 3rd safest seat but the results I was getting on the doorsteps contradicted that. Plus being told on Wednesday that it was almost a dead heat on the postal vote verification made one a bit nervy. I had wondered if the anti-GB feeling on the doorsteps would actually come out to inflict damage on them. Alex Salmond when speaking to John Curtice when we has having a tour of the campaign rooms on Wednesday said it would be 300 either way proved to be fairly accurate as well.
It was a good decision to let the Glasgow East SNP run the show with HQ input as this proved wise. All various targetting strategies seemed to have been drawn up and proved to have worked. John Mason does not come over all that well on TV but he is quite popular and well known throughout the seat and this came through on the canvassing. Margaret Curran and he cover the same area in their repsective seats and I though she would win as she also has a personal vote too.
I suppose we know start making plans for Motherwell and Wishaw for the Scottish Parliament seat when Jack McConnell finally goes.
Francis,
I believe in English independence. Neither people wanted union in the first place. Both countries had riots when the treaty was signed. It was shameful that our parliaments were both suspended and replaced by a British one.
Casino, that’s just it - the UK has influence but is it good influence? Think Iraq.. When England has no pretentions about world power it won’t have the financial albtross of Trident and wars round its neck. That will compensate the massive loss in earnings from the North Sea.
“Since you are in Spain, how do you feel about Catalonian independence?” Don’t know enough about it. Instincively, I’m for it. The comparison I find interesting is that people in Madrid think they understand Catalans and how they think. When you talk to Catalans you realise that people in Madrid know nothing about them. Seems to me like London and Scotland. As for the constitution Catalonia is part of the nation of Spain. The UK is not a nation but a state that comprises nations.
Each case has its own merits but I wouldn’t tell the English that they have no right to independence and that England is not a nation. I think England can cope with independence and if they want it they should be allowed to have it. (my last sentence is poking fun at a certain arrogant assumption)
Cornish culture, what form does it take? There are Celtic tombs and artifacts but is there anything else? Is there a great body of Cornish literature, poltical and economic thought, or is it more than a sleight of hand?
214- It isnt. Its just being ‘Celtic’ is more fashionable that being ‘English’, so they have suddenly decided they are a Celtic nation, despite the fact that there are areas of England with more Celtic genetic backgrounds.
215 Congrats, Marcia. Your team played a blinder and deserved to win.
191, 213 - The Scots have the right to independence. However, they would need to negotiate the terms of departure. Given that no politician would have a mandate to negotiate without a referendum first and the terms would almost inevitably be fiercely controversial, it’s hard to see how independence could take place without at least two referenda in Scotland (and perhaps one in England to ratify the terms being offered to the Scots).
Lancashire Labour MPs are revolting…
http://www.lep.co.uk/news/Wipeout-threat-for-Labour-in.4324726.jp
@217:
Cornish pasties are nice.
214
In this way
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornish_language
216- Both countries had riots? I know there were riots in Scotland, but England too?
John Denham supporting Brown saying they’ll win the next election. I think there’s just about enough of the Cabinet come out to save Brown.
No Milliband or Purnell though. Clearly don’t want to be associated.
209
Overround of 71%
Correct split?
£76.60
£23.40
Coldstone, MPs only seem to want to join UKIP when they have been tarnished by an expenses scandal. No much of an advert for UKIP.
223- Maybe I should learn Latin. After all, it was once spoken here.
228 - So was Anglo-Saxon and Norse.
226 EDW
I make it close to 50%, and the split would depend on how much value you thought there was on both sides; I have other related bets too which clouds the issue. Whatever way you look at it though, I have to be grateful to Will Hill in more ways than one.
Melissa Kite takes the Chancellor to task over his means of defending the great Gordo.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/melissa_kite/blog/2008/07/25/is_gordon_brown_really_the_best_weve_got
224 England reacted worse to the 1604 Union of the Crowns and in particular the arrival of James I and VI’s favourites.
209 PtP: …bets I struck at 20/1 some months back [on Brown going this year]
You and me both! We also pointed out at the time how generous were Hills’ odds, compared with the measly quarterly prices offered by Betfair, so much so that I kept going back for more back for more!
230
PtP,
I used to have a spreadsheet for this which would pay out the same whatever the result or you could ‘load’ it to reflect your opinion on value but I’ve lost the spreadsheet.
I think there are some websites where you can put in own figures.
223.
From the article you linked to;
“Ms Smith (Morecambe MP Geraldine Smith) was scathing of the government’s top ministers, saying that Home Secretary Jacqui Smith was “struggling” and that only Jack Straw (Justice Secretary), Geoff Hoon (Chief Whip), Alistair Darling (Chancellor) and Des Browne (Defence Secretary) had performed well in their roles.”
If she thinks Darling, Hoon and Browne are doing well in their roles then she isn’t even in cloud cuckoo land!
234 Yes EDW, I’ve seen such things, thanks, but there are rarely ‘clean’ opportunities to use them.
229 Why not French, the official Court language for a large part of the Middle Ages?
237 - Norman French is still used to signify Royal Assent!
236…what I mean is that the sitution isn’t usually simple and straight forward enough!
233 Glad to hear it PfP. I only had £50 on, but a great value bet nevertheless.
223. In what way?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Devonian
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumbric
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brythonic
This whole island spoke a Celtic language at one time. Just because you have a couple hundred trying to bring it back in one country doesn’t make the place a different nation or give it a different culture.
241. One county!
238 Who is Norman French, James?
@243:
http://www.sadtrombone.com/
When I was studying the origin the place-names many, many years ago it was definitely more ’sexy’ to find a Celtic origin, rather than Anglo-saxon or Norse. ‘Go for the Celtic’, said Jackson,’ that’s where the money is.’
I fear that the 0.2% growth figures today will be more signifigant in the long term than than Glasgow East. by the time of PM the best the BBC could come up with was stinger and that MB man. Mc Leiieth was interesting bu even he backed Gordon. If the dam hasn’t broke by the Sunday broadsheets then I think Gordon is OK.
Gordon’s desperation was of course dwarved yesterday by the shaming of a national figure who insisted upon his incompetence being published (with photos) in every tabloid in the land.
Do we really want a prime minister who thinks a bicycle is secure when he pops the padlock wire over a two foot ‘peg’?
246. All down to the bruvvers in Warwick and what they’ll pay for.
241. Yes. if you gave me 2 years, an advertising budget and a few jobbing academics i could develop as cogent a celtic idienty for Cumbria as Cornwall. One bonkers report from the countys touist board once tried to lay claim to camelot!
246. Yes that’s my view as well.
What i find staggering is the GMB blokes words have not started a more co-ordinated run of leadership contest debates
247. Its an od state of affairs for me to defend cameron but he should be able to leave it unlocked. Crime is the criminals fault not the victim.
215 … and many thanks to you, Marcia, for your insightful posts on what was happening on the ground - there’s just no substitute.
A special thank you also to a newcomer to PB who had been actively canvassing in Glasgow East right up to the end, along with some battle-hardened SNP politicians. Late on the eve of poll, he posted this simple message:
Labour are going to lose.
by Am Balach July 24th, 2008 at 12:40 am
245 - Those Celtic names lurk all over the place. We have a river Thames and a river Tees, while in Hungary they have a river Temes and a river Tisza.
249 They have in Cumbria. There is even a tourist centre celebrating Reghed, a little known Celtic Kingdom, later part of Northumbria, I believe.
253 Magyar is unrelated to any language except Finnish though.
255 - I believe the names are supposed to predate the Hungarians.
209 I cannot find these Brown bets on William Hill online. Any chance of some guidance?
I did wonder if he wanted to get rid of the blasted bike. His Prius is much more suitable for the family shop at Tescos.
255. Sami? Estonian? There are various similar languages in tribes throughout Russia I believe.
Still, Celtic was spoken in the Hungarian plain once.
257 TC
Hills take their Politics prices down after about 5.30pm. Should be back tomorrow morning, although prices may move overnite.
254. yes , next to the best service station in Britain. Formerly Tebay now the Westmorland. The farm shop attached is amazing but painfully expensive.
Went to tesco’s today. A cash rich, time poor metro version in an urban centre. For the first time in ages I bought reduced to clear organic tomatoes, mushrooms and onions and planned my week end menu round them rather than buying what i wanted. the number of multi bys and “value” items in trolloys was telling.
This isn’t family shopping, its what people i work i city centre offices were buying for friday night.
260 PtP thanks
203. Nonsense.
261 i found the centre quite good. I learned how to best pluck a chicken - I keep free-range hens.
I see Obama is doing a joint press conference with Sarkozy today.
http://thepage.time.com/2008/07/25/next-stop-france/
He just better hope his campaign don’t let Gordon change his mind and join him in his London press meet tomorrow, as we all know what good luck he brings!
Apologies if it’s been posted before but I thought Gerard Baker’s comment piece today on Obama’s visit was good….
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/gerard_baker/article4392846.ece
simon9999,
Now that you say it I’m a bit fuzzy on the subject. I thought there was unrest in England. I do know that union was unpopular before and for a long time after among the vast majority of the English..
246 and 250, there are a series of time windows. The first is this weekend when MPs that cannot control their anger just explode.
There are clearly discussions going on because some of the left wing MPs like Bob MA and Geraldine are actually speaking out in favour of Brown as they fear something worse. When was the last time BMA supported his Leader? Tribune has a story which I posted on earlier about upto 10 cabinet ministers being in favour of change and 3 ready to stand up.
The next time window is the period leading upto the deadline for the MPs to submit nominations for Leader prior to the Conference. Does Andrea know what the deadline is for that?
261 - Hope your bike was safe.
If Gordon Brown does manage to hang on, when is the latest that he has to call a General Election. Is it after April 2010?
I only ask, because that is the month that the announced changes in Vehicle Eexcise Duty come to full force. Some of the increases are eye watering, and will hardly help endear Mr Brown - or the Government - to those “hard working families” forced to stump up the extra cash.
269 The election has to take place in June 2010 as the last possible date unless they change the law.
I hope Obama changes his approach after the germany speech. It hasn’t really gone down well and it was full of rather meaningless platitudes. Obama is best when he presents wonky policy in an engaging and charismatic way. Not when he allows his medium to be the message.
Heard on Sky News - ComRes poll in tomorrow’s indy:
CON 46
LAB 24
LD 18
269. Last possible election date is 3rd June 2010, so dissolution could be as late as May 17th 2010…
Sky says new comreas poll with 22% Tory lead!
Tories 46
Labour 24
Alex, where is your evidence for this? The vast majority could not vote and record an opinion. I cannot think of much evidence from the literature of the time - a part from a few ‘tongue-in-cheek’ comments from Dr Johnson. Scots in the late eigthteenth century were leading figures in the great flowering of British philosophy and ideas. The two societies fused into something bigger and different quite quickly and painlessly, imho.
I voted no because if he does the Labour party are committing generational Hari Kiri.
They need to get shot of him and limit the damage to a 40/50 seat Tory majority. They can still do that, the Tories have not developed enough of a platform beyond not being Labour.
Not being Labour will be enough to win a majority.
Not being Gordon Brown will be enough for Cameron to win with a landslide. Policies or no policies.
But for now Brown looks like a beaten shellshocked, punch drunk former heavyweight champ who is totally unable to react. The Queen as referee has no real ability to step in and wave that Brown has had enough. Brown’s corner (the party) need to sling in the towel for him.
270, 273. Thanks Punter, Thanks Rod.
Latest Gallup tracker :
McCain 41% .. Obama 47%
Note - Both Gallup and Rasmussen trackers have seen a notable bounce since Obama overseas trip - Gallup up 4 points since yesterday and Rasmussen up 5 points since the 22nd.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109105/Gallup-Daily-Obama-There-Europe-Effect.aspx
There cannot be any way back for Brown now. Surely Labour MPs will be thinking about the prospect of unemployment pretty soon and acting to prevent it!
http://www.platform10.org/the-view-from-here/article/?no=322
255. I work beside Norwegians. One of them took some Finnish lessons. He says once you try and learn Finnish, you realise that English and German are just dialects of Norwegian.
271. You don’t announce policy in foreign countries. What else was he supposed to talk about?
Fernando,
The Scots Lords and MPs who signed the union treaty tried to have it rescinded in 1712. The Scottish economy got worse for around 70 years.. All the new Scots Lords and MPs were disliked by their English peers. Union was unpopular for a long time in England.
“Scots in the late eigthteenth century were leading figures in the great flowering of British philosophy and ideas.” You mean the ‘Scottish Enlightenment’. There was no enlightenment in England.
270 & 273, Conservative lead widening, Labour remain at lowest Comres point and LDs recover 2 to 18.
Last ComRes poll was Con 45, Lab 24, LD 16, so Con +1 and LD +2 from others (I think the last ComRes poll was the one with the anomalously high Green rating). Labour no change.
281 Err Hogarth, Johnson and later Byron et al.
The longer Brown stays then the more the public will see him as a dinosaur who’s not prepared to listen to public opinion. The longer the PLP leave the knife sharpening then they will become more and more associated with Brown and his pig headedness. IMO if they wait the full term for a GE then Labour could be out of power for at least 20 years. If a week is long time in politics then god knows what 20 years will feel like.
Did anyone get to the bottom of the post about Labour MP’s alleged meeting this weekend in Basingstoke?
285
Even I as a Tory would be worried about 20 yrs in power, particularly with lage majorities. It’s not good for democracy, and its really bad policywise.. Noone can have enough policies for 20 yrs.
I wonder if DC will start using Geoffrey Howe’s famous phrase about the Governemnt having the appearance of being in office but not in power?
#284 Byron was Scottish
285, I agree that if they stick with Brown they’ll get hammered in 2010, but 20 years is far too long to say as a certainty.
Assuming Brown gets beaten by Cameron in two years, the odds are Cameron will stand a good chance of a second term. Beyond that I think speculation is not worth making because who knows what will happen. The Lib Dems could get a great leader and sink Labour as the leading left party. Labour could merge with the Lib Dems. The Tory Cabinet could be filmed having an orgy with an army of pygmy prostitutes.
22 point lead is great. I would love to hit 50% but perhaps that’s being greedy.
Chris Huhne would lose his seat by a mile on this latest poll.
Nick Clegg would suffer a similar fate at the hands of the Tories to that of Labour in Glasgow East at the hands of Labour!
Sheffield Hallam
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP Nick Clegg (LIB) Electorate 68,573 Turnout 0.00%
2005 Votes 2005 Share User Prediction
LIB 20,463 45.88% 40.54%
CON 13,499 30.27% 43.55%
LAB 8,414 18.87% 6.66%
OTH 2,162 4.85% 9.12%
MIN 61 0.14% 0.14%
LIB Majority 6,964 15.61% Pred Maj 3.00% CON Gain
286: Nobody’s asked me to Basingstoke. (Sob!)
As for being chipper (upthread), it’s just the natural way to be. Life is good, even when you lose a by-election.
187 Silly me, the 5-1 Mike which obtained from Hills on Brown leaving office during 2008 was, of course, placed some time ago. As I, myself, pointed out in #179, their current odds on this eventuality are a decidedly ungenerous 5/6, when by averaging Betfair’s odds for Qtrs 3&4, it’s possible to obtain in excess of 3/1.
The real value, as I pointed out, are the 5/6 odds from this bookmaker AGAINST his going by 31 December ‘08. Apols for any confusion.
287 The LDP in Japan manages.
290 Test
Didn’t the Greek Gods punish mortals by giving them too much of what they wished for?
Bob Marshall-Andrews is saying that Labour need to hold on to its captain & not to ditch him. I suppose it’s only right that the captain must remain with the ship as it sinks to the bottom of the ocean.
287. I agree. Look at the state of the country without an effective majority!
289. The danger for Labour that if the country votes the same way as last night they could end up with about 50 MPs which is a far lower base than the Tories started with during the Blair years.
287. I thought it was Norman Lamont’s famous phrase! Given your sign on - you could never accude Maggie of being in office but not in power!
279 Alan J
I worked briely in Norway and found the language easy to understand because I could speak German (well) and English (badly).
New thread - PB Election Countdown: Representing results better
297, I don’t believe Labour will finish with under 150 MPs, even with Brown as PM.
274 ComRes poll - presumably this means the LibDems scored around 19% - somewhat more reassuring for them.
for fernando @ 254 & yellow sub @ 261…..
It is the service station near J38 of M6 which is Tebay, and Rheghed is just off J40……..only 15 miles away so near neighbours in Cumbrian terms. Both owned by the same family, Dunning, and both well worth a call.
Having been away last week-end I missed the annoucement that the Cons in Westmorland & Lonsdale had appointed as their PPC a real merchant banker! When googled he came up as a member (probably former by now) of the Young Chelsea Bridge Club……now that will really go down well in Milnthorpe and Kendal!
Tim Farron to increase his majority by at least 10-fold must be achievable. (Awaits Tory scorn)
292. I prefer your chipper to Blears……….. Actually that sounds rude! But Blears rams it down your throat!
Evening all, I am very sorry I have been posted missing! Just before the poll last night my laptop got very hot and I had to turn it off. I had to remind myself this morning that if I dont work the bills dont get paid so I was in Inverness all day on business.
Firstly can I thank all of you who have been so kind in referring to me in your remarks during the course of today. They have been much appreciated.
I know that when I said on the day the by-election was announced that I expected an SNP win by less than 500 votes with 1 recount, many of you thought I was crazy. Remember I also said John Reid was the man who could win it for Labour. John Reid was not heard of in the campaign and I truly believe that did Labour harm.
Can I pay tribute to Mike Smithson and Nick Palmer MP.
Mike I genuinely thought the higher the poll the better for Labour. I also believed that the high absence through the Fair holiday and previous disinterest would mean a low poll. I had not initially realised just how engaged the constituents were becoming and by the time I did, I felt I would be a hypocrit by trying to claim anything else.
Nick, you reported it exactly as you saw and heard it. I knew this from your first posting because when you referred to parts of the constituency I culd virtually drive to the street you were referring to.
I must however particularly refer to Stuart Dickson and his SNP colleagues. Each confirmed my views and frankly I think it is because we have far much more in common than many of you realise.
There is a saying in the Highlands that the Roman Catholic Church and the Free Presbyterian Church although diametrically opposed, are actually just the 2 sides of the same coin. I truly believe that the Scottish Conservative Party or Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party (whichever name you prefer)and the Scottish National Party are two sides of the same coin which perhaps why there is very clear chemistry between Alex Salmond and Annabel Goldie even though they fight and argue all the time.
Can I also say that my reasoning in the beginning was as follows.
Most of you were comparing events in Scotland with 2005 because understandably in England and Wales that is the apropriate starting point. Rod Crosby makes very clear explanations why he expresses the views he does. I respect those because Rod makes clear his methodology. However very respectfully I would suggest you have all “been watching the man and not the ball”.
The starting point for the Glasgow East by-election was not David Marshall’s result in 2005. It was Margaret Curran and Frank McAveety’s results in 2007. These showed that between 2003/5 and 2007 there had been a huge move to the SNP with a small recovery by the Tories and falling away by the SCottish LibDems. The starting post from which John Mason had to mount a challenge was 5000 votes, the combined Curran + 40% McAveety majority because between 2003 and 2007 the SNP had already whittled away around 5-6000 of a majority.
Anyway again thanks for all the kind comments. I am now going to type a prediction which you can all criticise at your leisure
I just don’t think that Brown will make it to the end of the year.
305 Well done and thanks again, Easterross.
The Baker article is ridiculous from, a Bush supporter he should have realised when he was wrong and let it go.
I responded but, of course, The Times put through supportive comments instead. They do this all the time, when I’ve disagreed with theatre reviews they don’t bother to post the disagreements just the praise.
The Times need to allow more freedom to criticise, at least the Guardian puts all things through.
Re: 261 Rheged:
the site of Camelot is Roxburgh, just outside Kelso, in the Borders: ‘ . . the ineffable cheek of his location of Camelot. You need a defensible cavalry fort, right? He finds it on a hill bounded by two rivers, with 400 acres of pasture beneath it, a place where a castle later stood. Its old name was Marchidun. ‘March’ is ’stallion’ in Welsh: The Fort of the Horse. They call it Roxburgh now, which is a mile from Kelso where Alistair Moffat was born. We all look for Camelot near where we were born: this chap found it.’
from review of: Arthur And The Lost Kingdoms by Alistair Moffat Weidenfeld & Nicolson, L20, pp. 320 at: http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3724/is_199908/ai_n8871037
Easterross, I’ll try not to call them LabDims if you do. It’ll be hard though. You are not at all popular among the large gang of PB Lib Dem rampers. Although, possibly slightly less unpopular with them than my good self.
Don’t get too carried away with this Tory/SNP thing. I come from the centre-right of the SNP, and we are in the minority, so please do not accept my views as being representative of the party as a whole when it comes to things Tory.
O/T
In all the excitement yesterday, I just wonder if this story was missed?
“Gerry Adams has accused the DUP of failing to engage properly with his party in a bid to avoid a political crisis at Stormont.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/7524271.stm
Im going out on a limb GORDON BROWN will resign, he`s never had the spine to face an election of any kind, the thought he could be
humiliated in his own seat will be too much, and there is no way he could handle a wipeout from the electorate
Im going out on a limb GORDON BROWN will resign, he`s never had the spine to face an election of any kind, the thought he could be
humiliated in his own seat will be too much, and there is no way he could handle a wipeout from the electorate