Who will get the blame in the GOP?
October 25th, 2008
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Which way for the Republican party after November?
Tuesday last, I was invited to speak in a debate at Portcullis House by Liberal International on why a McCain presidency might not be such a bad thing after all (for Liberals). I threw four or five arguments into the mix (some persuasive, others less so), but one thought in particular has festered ever since: that if John McCain loses, the impact on the direction of the Republican Party could be significant.
The basic principle was that, in seeking to learn the lessons of 2008, the Republican party would choose a new direction. By blaming McCain’s centrism, and seeing his appeal to moderates as undermining his support on the Religious Right, I suggested to this group of young Liberals that the lesson the GOP might learn from a severe defeat would be that the days of moderates and mavericks was over, and that for those on the Liberal/Left, that was not a prospect that should be welcomed. I thought it was telling that Colin Powell spoke out against the rightwards-shift in his party, and that he expressed fears for the judges Republicans would appoint - there are clearly many Republicans who prefer John McCain’s version of Republicanism to that of President Bush, but as many of them are crossing the aisle to support Obama as fighting to save the party they love.
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I would suggest that the direction the GOP decides to take after the November elections, assuming that they do not keep the White House, will be largely dictated by where the blame lies for their defeat. Much of it will lie with the Bush Administration, some with Congressional leadership, but the campaign is the entity that is in prime focus for recrimination.
I think it would be harsh to blame John McCain for defeat in a year that would have been a blow-out for almost any other candidate. Similarly, I think moderate Republicans would be misguided if they sought to blame the selection of Sarah Palin for their woes. It might have been a strategically fatal move, but tactically it kept McCain competitive for an extra six or seven weeks, when failing to keep Obama’s lead in single digits would have seen the RNC spend their money on Congressional races instead of the White House contest.
I think the Republican campaign was poorly fought this year, largely due what was perceived as a raging internal battle between McCain’s maverick centrism and the Rovian and social conservative campaign managers hired at the insistence of the RNC. The recriminations have already begun, and I find it hard to see that in 2012 the GOP would again nominate a candidate as far from the successful base that turned out for Bush in 2004.
I don’t think that lessons of failure should be entirely attributable to the McCain-Palin campaign - unless they lose by more than 10%, they will have outperformed the expectations of a generic Republican ticket, and in a particularly difficult year against a truly formidable Democratic campaign. None the less, I would be surprised if the direction of the GOP was not in some way swayed by a reaction to what now looks like defeat across the board. The demographics, character, and sheer electoral muscle of the social conservatives in the party will, I believe, cause this battle for the soul of Republicanism to be won, not by the McCain/Bloomberg/Scwartzenegger wing of the party, but rather by wing(s) represented by candidates like Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Sam Brownback and Tom Tancredo.
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Party leaders in the UK have a more dramatic effect on the nature and direction of their party - their tenure can runs for years, and their decision-making powers are more wide-ranging. The US political parties only have a clear ‘leader’ (in opposition) when they are running for President, and so it is harder for a nominee to stamp his authority (through patronage and political appointments) without actually winning the White House. McCain’s candidacy has done little to bolster moderates whilst he was running, and shouldering the blame for defeat might be the only role it is allowed to assume.
The only shred of comfort that I can see for the Republican party moderates is that it was the crushing defeat of another Arizona Senator, Barry Goldwater, that led to the birth of modern American Conservatism. Perhaps it takes the ashes of electoral humiliation for a wing of the party to understand how it can re-assert its influence. Whatever the direction, I think the potential scale of the pending defeat (especially in the House and Senate) will force the GOP to recruit new talent as its veteran politicians are deposed, and that the chance for the Republican party to re-invent itself will be only too appealing for any candidates looking to seek the nomination in four years time (starting in perhaps only 24 months).
Unless the polls, pundits, and betting markets are hopelessly mistaken on a scale not seen since Truman-Dewey in 1948 (a fear that has induced me to purchase a little ensurance with my Obama winnings), the Republican party is facing a catastrophe on November 4th. Who they blame, and to whom they turn, could turn out to be one of the great legacies of the 2008 Presidential election.
Morus
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Do you get blamed for winning?
O/T - Murray wins 6-0, 6-3.
Presumably if the Democrats do as well as they currently look like they will there won’t be a lot of moderates left in office nationally; The people who get reelected will be social conservatives from the reddest states. Have the same trends blown away most of the non-wingers at state level as well, or are there still a bunch of talented moderates around to pick up the baton?
2, kapow! He’s doing well. Simon lost in the semis at Lyon to Soderling. Made a small profit, but would’ve preferred him to win.
Great piece.
People are usually wrong about who the party will nominate 4 years from now but do we have any idea about who might fit the description you described?
I think Romney’s stock has risen in the current financial crisis and people are probably thinking he would have made a decent running mate this time.
Having said that the economic woes may have subsided enough such that it wouldn’t help him THAT much (Think McCain as Iraq got better).
The rest of the 08 contenders were pretty poor. Guiliani is futher left than McCain, Thompson was pretty bad, Huckabee… maybe?
5, I thought Huckabbe was a nice guy, but also a religious nutcase?
3 - Bloomberg is going for a third term in NY, Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins are still Senators from Maine. Gov Schwartzenegger is in place in California until 2010.
Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) has retired, and Chuck Hagel (R-NE) is retiring. Arlen Specter (R-PA) is very ill, and may be in his last term. George Voinovich (R-OH) is fairly moderate, and in the House Wayne Gilchrist is the only moderate who comes to mind. Tom Ridge will lose his job when Bush leaves office.
After these, Giuliani and Romney are about as moderate as it gets.
7. What about Jeb Bush? He’s got the respect of that hard right but he’s not as out there as Huckabee and Brownback. 2012 is too soon for the memory of his brother’s tenure though. But maybe another Bush following a 2 term Democrat….
5 - If Obama doesn’t manage to turn the economy around in his first term, then Romney might fancy his chances before he gets too old. If Obama has already instituted Universal Health Coverage and pulled the troops out of Iraq then he doesn’t have those to run on.
Huckabee (whom I like) will probably run again, but I think he would struggle to beat Obama. Giuliani will probably go for Governr of NY in 2010 instead, Thompson is too old now, Ron Paul is too fringeworthy, and I’m not sure what the party would make of Bobby Jindal at that level. Rick Perry (Gov Texas) might throw his hat into the ring (longest serving Governor in the US).
Romney could be the good-for-all-timezones conservative unity candidate - he did well in each state in the early primaries, can raise money, has a strong executive record, business and economic background, ran a very liberal state without scaring the horses, and looks the part. If Obama is unpopular, and has done the big things he promised, but hasn’t turned around the economy, Romney could be the best person to run against him.
Something I said on a thread here a few weeks ago was that if McCain goes down in a landslide the biggest loser will be moderate conservatism. People like Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter who were opposed to McCain getting the nomination will be screaming “I TOLD YOU SO!!!” as soon as the first results come in. The GOP will lurch hard to the right and become even more dominated by the evangelicals and the gay bashers and in doing so put themselves out of power for anything up to 20 years. It took Labour 2 crushing defeats in 83 and 87 before they started to modernize, likewise the Tories had to be routed in 97 and 01 before they began to change. It would be better for the GOP if it was Romney or Huckabee who was about to be steamrollered by Obama as that would show that the hard right message is unelectable. McCain and his brand of conservatism are going to be the fall guys for all of the mistakes of Bush, Cheney and Rove.
8. “But maybe another Bush following a 2 term Democrat….”
Do Americans really have to think in dynastic terms? How depressing if they do.
8 - Different name and he would have been VP this time around - still liked in Florida, great Hispanic support, does pretty well amongst Catholics, decent Governor, not as brash-sounding as his brother.
But his surname’s Bush. Could be a VP choice in 4 years though.
6-I remember him in the debates, he was impressive, he managed to be serious and still make jokes. I didn’t agree with most of what he said, but I couldn’t hate the guy.
12 Yes and if Obama wins again (if he wins in 2008!) surely a good bet for nominee in 2016. Let’s not forget the Bush family always thought of him not W as the future President……
Morus-As you might have realised I am one of the very few who have flown Palin’s colours on this site.In the event the GOP were to lose do you consider she would remain in politics & try again in 2012 or will she head for television.
Obama would have to be favourite for 2012 because first term governments get the benefit of the doubt, the glaring exceptions to this are Heath and Carter but they made a complete pig’s ear of things! The electorate realises the scale of the problems facing America and that Obama policies will need time to work, as long as he can show himself to be a competent POTUS, (same for PM Cameron) he will be re-elected probably on a smaller scale though. The big question for Obama next time will be his VP. Bush made a fatal error in sticking with Cheney last time even though he would have not been a serious candidate this time, this left the GOP with no heir apparent. To prevent a similar situation Obama should go with a young up and coming star in 2012, (possibly a woman?) who can be the standard bearer for 2016.
15 I bet she fills the role in the GOP vacated by Jesse Helms as a Senator. Picking her as Presidntial nominee would be a moment equivalent Labour picking Foot in 1981.
time test
15 - She might try, but I don’t think she would win the nomination, for the same reason that I don’t think Obama would have another chance if he lost in 2008.
There are other candidates who hold the same policies, who are more experienced, have a stronger fundraising base than Palin - her USP was that she was a breath of fresh air when you consider that social conservatism was fronted by Fred Thompson in the primaries. You can’t do fresh-face-of-change a second time four years later.
If she were ever to run again and be taken seriously for the nomination, I think it would have to be off the back of having been Energy Secretary to a Republican PResident or something.
When I did hte debate, one perso said they thought the lesson the GOP would learn was you can’t just take Washington outsiders. Interesting point I thought.
Two points:
1. This wasn’t looking like it was going to be a blowout before Leheman Bros. Obama was barely ahead by the MOE. Democrats will continue to struggle to win national office. I think Obama may struggle heavily in 2012. With less enthusiasm, fewer new voters and fewer donations.
2. American Parties are radically different to British Parties. The GOP doesn’t need to choose a new leader for 4 years. Also, I predict that in 2010 the republicans will make gains in both houses. Some of which will be in the mould of Sarah Palin and some in the mould of 2000 McCain and Powell. Based on which seats are up for election. The Republicans do not need to choose a direction to win office, they can go in different directions and still make gains. It’s not like Britain where every election is national and every member of the houses toes the party line, which is decided by the leader. There will be no leader for four years and there will be no need for a universal direction.
10 The US is very different from the UK is that much of the politics is local or state level so it gives the opportunity for someone outside of the governing philosophy of a party to develop a constituency and standing. The GOP will go through a crisis following a defeat this year, the Coulters etc will make claims, but at state level the Republicans wanting power in California, in Florida, in Texas, in New York etc. will be looking and moving towards the centre. It’ll be a struggle but desire for power will move the party back towards a set of policies and people who can win.
19. Both interesting points. I agree, they’ve got two years before deciding which direction they need to go in.
Interesting article. Assuming no last-minute turnaround, it seems to me that the party can reasonably blame McCain for a certain chaotic approach, almost as if he was trying to prove his maverick credentials by running an eccentric campaign. His theme should have been solid experience married to independence of spirit, but every time he did something off the wall (choosing Palin being the most obvious example) it blew a hole in the ‘experience’ part to the point that Obama actually seems the more solid, stable choice.
But the right will want a more political conclusion than the largely unfair “McCain screwed up”. The religious strand of Republicanism can be relied upon to maintain its enthusiasm no matter what - they’re doing God’s mission, valleys of death and the like are just part of the job. The sober pro-business strand is likely to be demoralised by the failures of Bush plus a big defeat, and I’d think that Huckabee, as the religious candidate whom everyone likes, would have a good chance if they were choosing right now. But there are some signs of evangelicals taking an interest in breaking out of the GOP camp, so that might not be the position 4 years from now.
But there are some signs of evangelicals taking an interest in breaking out of the GOP camp, so that might not be the position 4 years from now.
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Perhaps they could join the Constiution Party then try to get have a 2012 candidate running as a Republican/Constitution Party fusion ticket? Would be interesting to see what the Libertarian Party would do in those circumstances.
12. After 2 Bush’s - and one whose epitaph is disastrer - I dont think Jeb would stand a chance whether it be 2016, or any other year.
12. After 2 Bush’s - and one whose epitaph is disastrer - I dont think Jeb would stand a chance whether it be 2016, or any other year.
25 You’d think so and yet I don’t think it can be ruled out.
24,25. So bad, he said it twice.
We don’t know what sort of a fist of it President O will make, one way or t’other. But, we will know soon and by this time next year it will be pretty clear as to whether he will be a one termer or two termer. It is at that point that mavericks should start looking towards Pennsylvania Avenue. This is nothing new this and it certainly goes back as far as 1860.
Of course it is unusual for the governing party to put forward a candidate who has no obvious connection with the incumbent administration. Who was the Democrat in 1952 ? That might be the last time that might have happened. It is a measure of the unique qualitites of the younger Bush’s time in office that no-one from the administration even tried for the nomination.
Many of us thought Mr Clinton would be a poor president and I doubt he much exceeded our expectations. After eight years of young George the hurdle of expectation will be that much lower for Mr Obama. But good or bad it is unlikely that any president will have embarked upon office in such miserable circumstances since FDR in 1932.
After the debacle of the last four years, notion that the Republican or any other party will nominate Jeb or any other Bush is preposterous.
As likely as you buying a Stuedebaker next year!
The Bush brand is kaput. Because W makes Warren Harding look like Abraham Lincoln.
28. It was Adlai Stevenson, who was Governor of Illinois, so I think you’re right!
If they lose, the Republicans need to do a few things.
There will be scope for gains in the mid-terms. They need to select much better candidates particularly at Senate level. They have given away New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia - they would have been tough defences anyway but the candidates just aren’t up to it. Elizabeth Dole takes a lot of blame for that.
They need to refresh their campaigning - they’ve been outgunned on Dean-style small donations etc and on the ground organisation.
They need a credible Governor (Jindal, Sanford etc) as Presidential candidate to contrast with the Washington establishment (which will certainly be Democrats at Senate and Presidential level and quite possibly House level).
They need to resist the siren voices of the Christian right - that’s the way to the wilderness.
Can still remember how my rock-ribbed GOP grandfather cursed Herbert Hoover in the 1960s. “Herbert Goddam Hoover” was what he called him; ‘course he also refered to “Franklin Goddam Delano Roosevelt”. Point is that he hated Hoover for being such a waste of space AND opening the door for FDR and half century of Democratic dominance.
weathercock - re 27 - sorry, that was meant to be funny, but when I re-read it it obviously isn’t. I apologise.
29 It depends really. Going by age Jeb in theory could be viable as a candidate up to 2028 looking at McCain. Memories of his brother’s Presidency will dim except in the GOP where they still wield clout. He’d certainly be a major consideration as a VP candidate as the ideal way to rally the base. The advantage being unlike Palin he does know what he talks about.
Of course Warren Harding led fewer boys to their deaths that Abraham Lincoln. Was Lincoln a great president ? Or, was his election so divisive that the internal conflict between the free states and the slave states could not be remedied other than by armed conflict. What if Stephen Douglas had been elected in 1860 ? Could he have contained the insurrections which would have followed his election ? It is unlikely that Douglas would have done nothing in the way that Buchanan had. Yes, of course he would have died in office and that would have been another tinder point. But Douglas in 1860 might just have given the southern states time to reconcile themselves with the neo-Whigs and their allies and so prepared them for a Lincoln presidency in 1864. Also by them Lincoln would have had sufficient time as a national figure not to terrify the greater half of the electorate.
31 - You make plenty of sense. EXCEPT that history shows the proclivity for once dominanate political establishments to wander and wallow in the wilderness for the maximim time possible. Democrats 1994 and Tories 1997 spring to mind.
The GOP’s slightly premature rush to form the classic circular firing squad is one indication that it will likely take the Republicans more rather than less time to clear away the debris after Hurricane Obama.
To answer the question posed at the top of the thread:
The liberal media and political correctness.
34 - the memory of the awfulness of W will NEVER dim for millions of Americans who are not Republicans. They might still tolerate Jeb in Florida, but nowhere else. And W’s daughters have a much of a politcal future as Trisha and Julie Nixon.
GOP is more likely to draw the wrong conclusions as opposed to the right ones from their current fiasco. For example, the idiot idea that McCain scewed up their wonderful chances. Or that Sarah Palin is the greatest thing since Barry Goldwater.
36 - Yes. And yet from the outside it all looks so unnecessary.
It’s not going to be a bed of roses for Obama. The economic position is grim and the global situation isn’t much better. He won’t be able to spend a lot and things aren’t going to feel better in the first 100 days. He can’t blame Congress which will be heavily Democrat.
There are lots of opportunities there for the Republicans if they don’t lose their heads. But you’re right… they probably will.
Why do some posts on here get duplicated? Just curious.
38 Come on, I bet even they could have been elected had the inclination and the talent. Jeb unquestionably has talent. Had the 1994 Governor’s races gone to Bush family expectations with W being beaten in Texas and Jeb Bush winning in Florida, we would probably now be talking about Jeb’s Presidency. The Bush name will only inspire hard core GOPers and Democrats beyond 2016. The mass will remember W as much Eisenhower. A long shot yes. Imposssible clearly not.
Palin will go into TV and do a double act with Tina Fey.
The Republicans will blame the left/liberal media for their defeat, they always do!
Rational Republicans will then have to really work hard to wrest their party from the grip of the religious looney right.
p.s.
Not that we’ll have to worry ‘cos by then the Rapture will have taken place and the, ‘elect’ will all be in heaven, leaving reprobates, (me) in the other place, Basingstoke with wall-to-wall heating.
35. No, by 1860 the South were not going to accept any Republican president. Remember that they secceeded before Lincoln did anything of note as president. Had Lincoln lost, the Civil War might have been delayed but it would have come sooner or later unless the slaves took matters into their own hands first.
May I tip my hat to JAN OF NORWAY for noting early and often the critical role of PENNSYLVANIA as a key swing state.
Personaly thought and still think that PA is beyond the reach of McCain or any other Republican this year. BUT it remains in play because McCain has no choice, as it is almost the only state Kerry won that McC has ANY chance of flipping. By any I mean 0.001%, which is still enough to keep it in play.
O/T I missed some of this economic news yesterday
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/3254569/Panic-selling-hits-Europes-markets-on-bad-corporate-news.html
“PSA Peugeot Citroen, Europe’s second-biggest carmaker, announcing that it was slashing production by 30pc following a “collapse” in the global car market;
Shares in Renault, France’s second largest carmaker, collapsing as much as 22pc after the company said it would shut its French plants for one to two weeks starting on Monday;
The world’s largest steelmaker, ArcelorMittal, is to temporarily close smelting furnaces in a number of European countries, according to trade unions;
And with truck sales a key indicator of the health of economies, Swedish maker Scania said orders in western Europe fell 69pc in the third quarter, and rival Volvo said it had seen a 55pc fall.”
10. Excellent post. Providing that Obama doesn’t completely screw up, he should be in for 8 years. The GOP will struggle to come back from this defeat to win the White House next time. In fact, it’s very rare for a party to win the presidency for a single term. Carter did, between the Nixon/Ford and Reagan/Bush periods, but before that you have to go back to the 19th century. It’s getting quite rare for sitting presidents to lose a reelection bid. Only one of the last four has.
There’s every chance that after a defeat a week on Tueday, the Republicans could set themselves on a course to make themselves unelectable, though it’s also worth remembering that Bush was elected - just - twice which should give some idea of the limits of electability.
35, 43 Given Democratic split in 1860 virtually no way Lincoln or any other Republican could have lost the election that year. And the election of any “Black Republican” would have triggered the secession of South Carolina and the other Deep South states.
What President Lincoln could have done in early 1861, was refused to resist seccession by armed force. Whether that would have prevented or merely postponed the Civil War is an open question. Fact this epic conflict occured at all makes me believe that war might have been delayed, but not denied.
44. 0.001% equates to a one in a hundred thousand chance. Any chance of you offering me 50000-1 that McCain takes it? (I’m obviously being generous there, cutting the odds in half).
48 - Less than zero!
The media coverage of the US election is now beyond a joke. Sky News wants to know whether the Republicans will rally to McCain in the last couple of weeks. Who do they decide to interview? Er, a Democratic strategist. Laughable.
47. Fair point. It wasn’t inevitable that there would be a Civil War. It was pretty much the case that by 1860, the South would only accept their terms within the Union or their terms out of it. That would leave the first Republican president thereafter the problem of whether to accept the division of the Union or not. Lincoln chose not - wise and great man. Slavery was an untenable economic and social system in the industrial age and would have failed sooner or later. It is just possible that the reform could have come from within, had a visionary leader come to power and educated the Southern aristocracy, but it’s far more likely that it would have been through violence, either a slave revolt or external intervention.
49. Oh well. Worth a try
American evangelicals get my goat. I am a Christian but was berated by some of these people because I don’t believe the world was created in 4000BC or whatever the supposed year is. For them Charles Darwin is a heretic, and frankly the ones I have met have little compassion or sympathy for anyone who does not agree 100% with their view of life.
Mike Huckabbe was their standard bearer in 2008. Seems a likeable guy but his polices -uurgh! If the GOP goes this way I hope they don’t win as they could be very scary for us all. If you think W was bad - you ain’t seen nunthin’ yet!
51 This common misconception riles me. The civil war at the onset had nothing to do with the abolition of slavery, and everything to do with whether slavery would be allowed in new states.
47 Why did the Democrats split when that would so obviously be the result? Looking at the power of the South at the time in the Union, the dominance of the Supreme Court, the ability to block any and all legislation the South did not want their paranoia was amazing.
OT: Any suggestion on Benneteau-Soderling in the Lyons final? (Set betting in particular).
Got Benneateau at 10.5 (again the mighty stake of £2 was placed), so I’ll try and lay that obviously. Lost a little today, which was most irksome.
46 Might not be Obama that screws up - could be the congressional Democrats. The House Democrats are probably a lot more liberal than in 1993 (fewer bluedog Southern Dems, more Northeastern liberals) and with a Senate filibuster proof majority and a large house majority they could push through some New Deal/New Society kind of programs.
Barney Frank has already been on CNBC making the case for higher taxes, and large deficit spending on public works . I would think that some of the senior House Democrats have been waiting 14 years for the chance to propose the legislation they really want and have a chance of getting it through the White House.
Last time they were in this position they went for Hillarycare and got hammered in 1994, and I could see similar happening again.
50 ChrisM
Maybe Sarah Palin has set a fashion and they couldn’t find a Republican who was prepared to be interviewed or answer the questions put?
American civil war - freehoolders in the north were concerned they would not be able to compete with slave labour, and would be forced out of jobs and land if it spread from the South. If it spread West, it could then spread north
Forget Strictly Come Dancing. How can anyone argue against the BBC when they’ve got “Hole in the Wall” to watch on Saturday nights???
54. I don’t think my post at [51] contradicts what you’ve said? Even so, I’m not sure I entirely agree with you.
While Lincoln had no manifesto to abolish slavery (and in fact, no constitutional ability to do so), the fear of the South was that it would come anyway and that a Republican win was proof that the balance had decisively swung against them. The degree of paranoia about what might happen had reached levels probably not seen against until the Communist scares under McCarthy.
The reason the question of the status of the new states was important to the South was to protect the balance which preserved their institution. As the country expanded westwards, there were only really three ways to do that: expand southwards (Texas etc), which worked for a while but the failure to annex all of Mexico put paid to that; hide behind constitutional rights, but the contitution had been shown to be highly flexible and a non-slave state majority in congress could ultimately pack the Supreme Court with hostile judges; or the final fallback position - preemptive seccesion while they were strong enough to do so.
It wasn’t the imminent prospect of abolition that was the fear; it was that in the future, their ability to protect their rights (and so ultimately, their social system) would be eroded to such a degree that their way of life could be overturned and there would be little they could do about it.
Latest Gallup trackers :
Registered Voters
McCain 42% .. Obama 51% .. O +1
Likely Voters
McCain 44% .. Obama 51% .. M -1/O +1
Likely Voters Plus
McCain 43% .. Obama 51% .. M -1
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111442/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Lead-78-Among-Likely-Voters.aspx
Gallup Tracker:
LV Traditional - O lead 7% (was 5%)
LV Expanded - O lead 8% (was 7%)
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111442/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Lead-78-Among-Likely-Voters.aspx
On top of Rasmussen, this is a good Polling day for Obama.
57. That could well happen with congress but in 1996 Bill got back. Obama has to mess up personally if he’s going to lose, though he might get saddled with a Republican congress.
Of course, it does depend on who the GOP candidate is. Bob Dole was hardly inspiring in 1996. If Colin Powell (or, if the rumours are right, Powell’s wife) could have been persuaded it would have been a very interesting contest that year. But what are the prospects for 2012? Even if there are some attractive centrist candidates, could they win the nomination after a McCain defeat this time? Possibly so; probably not.
64. Mike L – it looks like Obama must have polled very well today or yesterday to pull up the numbers. Good day in the trackers for Obama today.
61. The idea of Vanessa Feltz contorting herself into a variety of shapes whilst clad in silver spandex is not family viewing.
How likely is it that McCain could end up with less than 40% of the PV?
60. It’s only possible because of the unique way the BBC is funded.
68. If you believe this morning’s thread, it’s more likely that he’ll end up with 106% of it!
Seriously though, less than 40% for McCain would imply at least a 17% lead for Obama (can’t see the alsorans getting more than 3%), which is way beyond anything that the polls are picking up, so either you’d have to believe the polls are all systemically wrong or there’s some reason for a very late and very large swing to the Democrat.
45 SSI - I do not, and have never listed PA as a key swing state. Au contraire, I have posted before, and I gradly do it again, that I think McCain would be better advised to put his resources into holding CO and VA.
That said, I see the logic, if McCain has internal polls showing CO and VA to be hopeless, and PA to be better for him than the public polls (such as the one for Obama rumoured to have him up by only 2 points) that he makes PA his last stand.
I also believe NH is more likely to flip than PA, but NH will not be enough, so the PA logic explained above still stands.
AND if SSI really means that the odds of McCain winning PA is 1/100000 I will gladly knock one 0 of that and accept a £10 bet for McCain winning PA at 1/10000, which means SSI must put up £100.000. OK?
62. Very true. A point not often understood was that the two sides were actually fighting for different reasons. The North was fighting for the Union and preventing expansion of slavery. The South was fighting for secession from the US, because they no longer controlled the federal government. The many in the South assumed that with slavery blocked in the new territories, that the North would create a series of dozens of small states (think New England), packed with immigrants from Europe, giving them total domination of the US. Lincoln’s election was just the start…
The interesting bit is that the South would probably have kicked off a war (at some point) if secession had been peaceful - they would have still wanted expansion in to the new states/territories.
51. Sorry Chris this is another tiresome Benbobjim pedant attack. I wish people would stop saying “over the next couple of weeks”. There are only 9.5 days remaining in this race! A lot of people have written “over the next two weeks” or even “over the next few weeks”.
I seems to have gone on forever – but election day is Tuesday week!
Rasmussen Obama + 7 Gallup +9; both +1 on yesterday… feel a tad calm after waking up feeling like a big fat grizzly bear this morning!
72 et al. How much support was there for tolerating slavery among Northern voters, and how much support was there for abolishing it among Southern voters? In the Border states, at least, there seem to have been large minorities of people who sympathised with the opposing side, and wasn’t New York also pretty sympathetic to the South at the time?
68 In a two horse race, I think both candidates are assured of 40%+
73. Well that’s me told!
47 Between Jimmy Carter and the 19th century,I respectfully point out you ommited one-termer GOP President Hoover 1928-1932
58. “The House Democrats are probably a lot more liberal than in 1993 (fewer bluedog Southern Dems, more Northeastern liberals) and with a Senate filibuster proof majority and a large house majority they could push through some New Deal/New Society kind of programs.”
This is based on the received wisdom that Americans don’t want that sort of Government. Certainly, they have resisted such social democratic ideals in recent decades but I wonder, I just wonder, whether a bit more public spending might be attractive in the current economic circumstances. I
Isn’t there some old adage about conservativism? No-one wants Big Government until times get tough, then they crave it. Maybe that explains why McCain’s sharp attacks on socialism and all the Joe The Plumber stuff hasn’t seemed to show up in the polls.
Just wondering.
I had decided to leave the Presidential betting alone, due to me consistently underestiamting Obama, but surely there is value in the following state betting from Hills
Republicans to win
Ohio 5/2
Florida 7/4
There have been polls today showing McCain ahead in these states
http://www.willhill.com/iibs/EN/buildcoupon.asp?couponchoice=PO2341812
Can I assume there’ll be fewer councillors on the new unitary council then or am I being cynical?
http://www.shrewsburychronicle.com/2008/10/23/lib-dems-defect/
71.
Jan, the trouble then is that Mac *still* has to hold onto highly shaky Nevada to become president – even if he takes PA. Assuming Obama holds NH, Mac gets the ultimate close but no cigar – loses to Obama by 268 ECVs to 270…
77. The problem with big government is that you get it all the time, not just when there are emergencies.
Going back to my earlier post, my knowledge of the US civil war is very thin. Can anyone recommend a good introductory book, that’s both scholarly and readable?
78. None today I don’t think although Strategic Vision had Mac 2/3 pts up yesterday. Yes, could be some value there, but what do I know. I thought 2-1 on McCain was value in September. Uh.
81. That’s true Sean – unless I suppose a Government went on some sort of capital spending programme, using public money to finance massive infrastructure schemes that create jobs when they are being built and help boost the economy when they are complete. They then turn off the tap in the recovery.
Crossrail here is one such option. And I think Boris was banging on the other day in his column about Depression-era schemes such as the Hoover Dam and the wonderful Skyline Drive road in Virginia across the Blue Ridge Mountains.
81. I too would be keen to read an a decent book on the US Civil War as my understanding of it is also embarrassingly thin.
76. George Bush Sr was a one-termer too was he not?
I think turnout might not be as high as anticipated….
I think the McCain camp might concede defeat soon…. However, I think McCain might win Ohio…
83. In a British context it is interesting to hear Darling talk about supporting the economy with public infrastructure projects. I wonder if this means that the Leeds Supertram, which Gordon Brown personally cancelled last year, will be resurrected? Leeds and West Yorkshire is marginal seat central.
76. I was referring to parties rather than presidents (by which standard, GHW Bush would also have counted as might Gerald Ford, depending on definitions).
Hoover followed on from the Republican administrations of Harding and Coolidge - indeed, he was a prominent member of Coolidge’s cabinet.
Since Cleveland’s second term (1893-97), once a party has won the White House, it has held it at the subsequent election (and often more), apart from that sole Carter exception.
Sorry to set this hare running about 1860. I don’t think Lincoln’s election was inevitable. Lincoln didn’t even consider himself a Republican until 1857 and then with reluctance. The Southern states claimed only the right to secede. A right which it would be hard to deny from any reasonable reading of the Constitution. They believed that they would not have to fight for the right because the north east would fear Europe and Britain in particular.
With a President Douglas South Carolina would not have seceded and the others would not have followed. Certainly the abolitionists would have continued with attacks such as John Brown’s on Harper’s Ferry. What could the north have done ? It is hardly credible to assume the northern states would have seceded.
Sorry, I sound like a southern apologist. I’m not. Lincoln was a great president, probably the greatest. But, could a different throw of the dice have avoided the Civil War, yes I think it could by delaying it for long enough for reasonableness to have seen through. That might have been less satisfactory for the abolitionists in the short term but would have saved a lot of lives.
75. Erm , uh, no hard feelings!
86. Re: turnout. Why? Do you expect a depressed GOP turnout? Republicans are trusty voters as a rule.
74. The North was overwhelmingly for preventing an expansion of slavery. A much smaller group wanted to abolish slavery. A very small group wanted to use state fiat/violence to end slavery.
The Deep South wanted to protect slavery - overwhelmingly. The situation in the border states was, as you say, volatile.
One reason that the South wanted a war was to tip as many border states as possible towards them.
73. Just realised the uptick by Obama in the trackers waqs when he wasn’t even campaigning - he was with his sick grandma. Sympathy vote?
84
The DVD the Civil War is brilliant.
Shelby Foot is the acknowledged author
http://www.librarything.com/author/footeshelby
Meanwhile, Joe The Plumber fancies becoming a congressman.
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/25/joe-plumber-considers-run-congress/
87. Well he bloody well ought to. Labour’s disdain for northern infrastructure projects over southern ones can be pretty disgusting. That Leeds has to rely on deregulated buses to get its people around is a joke – aren’t it and Liverpool the only former met cities that don’t have a rapid transit system?
86. The McCain camp might be ready to give up, but McCain isn’t:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/johnmccain/3259208/John-McCain-loses-temper-with-defeatist-aides-as-he-vows-to-fight-to-the-last.html
84 Shelby Foote’s The Civil War, three volumes - panaromic, covers the political and military action.
Just after finishing it I was in Atlanta suburbs and sitting at a table at a restaurant looking down a river to a bridge and realised it was a spot described in one bit of Sherman’s march - the river bank the Confederates were desperately defending, where the Union troops were, the position of the railway. The geography of the Civil War is still so recognisable in the States, its effects still there.
94. Thanks Coldstone.
Carl Sandberg’s Life of Abraham Lincoln got me interested as an 18 year old a long time ago, the three volume version, not the 9 or 10. Alistair Cooke seems to have hated it, he thought it established Lincoln as the folk hero incapable of fault. There’s a memorably spooky bit which makes me doubt how accurate it all is but, others will know better than me. It is unputdownable.
Aren’t we due fresh early voting data soon? David Plouffe was forecasting last night that the Dems will have outpaced the GOPs absentee advantage with in-person votes come Monday (they are already fractionally ahead overall but not by much)
101. Sorry, post applies to FL.
Yes, the Civil War by Shelby Foote proves that the US can make TV series BETTER than anything we can do. And the haunting title music will never leave you once you have heard it.
The Civil War DVD is very good, but if Shelby Foote is the one I think he is from memory, I find him quite annoying on it. Lots of little anecdotes which seem to detract from the main narrative. It’s probably just me though. I haven’t read any of his stuff, so that isn’t a comment on his books.
85 and 88 I stand corrected!
96. Leeds’ transport system is a disgrace. The city does benefit from being at the juncture of the M1/M62 the but the road network inside the city is poor. It is overloaded with traffic and the lack of a mass transit system means that the city will, as you say, continue to rely on the bus system. Similarly the city is served by a poor train network where it takes longer to go by rail to Manchester than it does to drive. Leeds is a city that has moved forward hugely in the last decade, much of it through private enterprise rather than the public sector, and it deserves a 21st century transport network.
104 Disagree there - its the anecdotes, seeing the War as it appeared at the time, the strands of war going on simultaneously across a continent, that change it from a mere narrative to a national story.
106. Would you accept road charging in return for it? Manchester’s tram network will be expanded as long as it approves road charging in a referendum – no easy task…
104
Yes! Foot had a tendency to be a little on the folksy side, but his knowledge was beyond dispute.
The most truthful statement, ‘If the North had taken that war seriously from day one, it would have been over in six months’
Latest Diageo/Hotline tracker :
McCain 43% .. Obama 50% .. No Change
http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/
92,94 Thanks.
WRT capital projects, a recession can be a good time to commission them, as you can get them done more cheaply than in normal circumstances. But you need to commission things that are genuinely useful, rather than just make-work schemes.
Bringing forward capital projects, OTOH, seems unwise, as, by definition, these things need to be planned and executed meticulously, if they’re to turn out as you want them.
107 I can see why you would disagree. I usually like these sort of anecdotes. Maybe it’s just his way, the chuckling to himself as he tells them. It’s only a minor issue for me anyway. Overall it’s a great series.
108. I don’t agree that a mass transit system should be held to ransom by way of a congestion charge but if that was the way the government chose to play it then, on balance, I would accept road charging.
113. Fair enough – the c-charge comes in after the transit is built anyway, so it’s shouldn’t be that sharp a choice.
111. Sean – Crossrail and Manchester Metrolink extension are exceptions because they already have planning. They are ready to go once finance can be found and tenders let.
Ian Dale has links to tomorrow’s NOTW which has, unsurprisingly, a Mandy scoop - a Mandy scoop which looks relatively tasty.
Sean Fear - this is pretty good, and seemed unviased to me:
http://www.amazon.com/Civil-War-American-Heritage-Books/dp/0618001875
- there’s apparently an expanded 3-volume version too.
One other problem for the moderates in the GOP, in addition to the unfavorable reaction from the base over the defeat of McCain and the betrayal by high-profile moderates such as Powell, is that it is largely the most moderate GOP House members and Senators who were defeated in 2006 and will be defeated this year (i.e., there will be fewer of them in positions of real power and they will in any event carry the stench of defeat about them). The history of electoral success of GOP moderate presidential contenders vs. conservative contenders is also not favorable for moderates, given the electoral successes of George W. Bush and Reagan as opposed to the failures of Ford, George H. W. Bush, and Dole. Ultimately, the prospects for a GOP comeback will be determined by the Democrats, not the Republicans; the importance of who it is who comes to dominate the GOP will only have great importance AFTER the GOP makes its comeback.
87 & 96
By all accounts, Leeds is the highest populated city in Europe without a mass transit system of any sorts. This Government pulled the plug on the last SuperTram attempt (akin to Manchester’s and Sheffield’s) a few years back.
Bradford keeps going on about modern trolley buses (its geography is really unsuited to trams), but I wont believe they are coming until I see them with my own eyes!
Evening all
It’s very hard to know what parties will do once in opposition after long periods in power. The American system is of course very different from that in Britain. Both the GOP and Dems have had long periods out of power in recent times yet neither has looked remotely like splitting or dividing.
I’ve said on here many times that I think the 2010s will be very tough for Governments and the US will be no exception. Parallels with the Clinton experience of 1992-94 are inevitable. The GOP in “opposition” worked out a powerful conservative policy platform - the Gingrich “Contract with America” which led to the GOP landslide in 1994.
The question here is what intellectual response the GOP will come up with in 2010 to Obama. I suspect Obama might find Pelosi/Reid difficult to deal with on occasions and the likely struggling economy won’t allow for or encourage fiscal irresponsibility.
The optimistic scenario is that the American economy recovers slowly from mid-2009 and that the Dems reap the reward in 2010 and beyond. I suspect that IF Obama looks impossible to beat in 2010-11, the big GOP players will leave 2012 alone and concentrate on 2016.
117 Many thanks. Very good reviews, I see.
NoW reporting that Mandelson will face an EU enquiry following an official complaint made by an EU watchdog over his links with a super rich french aritocrat, whom they alledge was effectively allowed to write trade laws.
Mandelson gone by Christmas?
120 I can imagine the Congressional Democrats overreaching themselves, and facing a backlash in 2010, yet Obama winning quite comfortably in 2012, so long as he’s reasonably competent.
Re the European truck market (not a phrase I’d ever thought I’d use in polite company) I was reading the FT today and saw the astonishing stats from Volvo, which give some sense of the depth, of this economic crash.
This quarter last year Volvo had net orders for 44,000 new trucks in Europe. This quarter this year… 110.
Mind-numbing figures.
“Leeds is the highest populated city in Europe without a mass transit system of any sorts”
That’s a decent factoid. I was trying to counter it, but have yet to think of an alternative.
123. Sean, who do you want to win the US election?
118. I think betrayal is an unfair term to use on people like Colin Powell. He’s just doing what he’s thinking is right for the country. It’s not the fault of those scrambling overboard that the ship is sinking.
124 That shocked me, as well.
106 Leeds has surged economically, over the course of the past 20 years, and I find it suprising that the Conservatives haven’t benefitted from this.
118. You are talking past tense S&S. The election is not until Tuesday week – McCain hasn’t lost yet!
126 In normal years, I would prefer the Republican. Because the Bush administration (and Congressional Republicans) have been so grossly incompetent, I find it hard to make my mind up.
Morus - wonderful piece.
Bloomberg having been a Democrat, a Republican and now an Independent is unlikely to be welcomed back into the party.
Many of my socially conservative friends in North Dakota are voting for Obama in this election; the two most stated elements in their decision appear to be that the Republicans are not trusted on the economy, and they see McCain as unsuitable for President. Many of them are also impressed by Obama.
If they consider that President Obama has battled on their behalf during his first-term they’ll stick with him. The issues of same-sex marriage and abortion are considered as much less important this time around.
Most of my Republican friends in Florida are holding their noses and voting for McCain. Some of them preferred Giuliani, some Romney. None of them had a good word for McCain during the primaries.
If the GOP goes for a Palin/Huckabee candidate in 2012 they will probably fall into line. If they go for Romney, many of them will be fired up. But, as always, when the GOP turns to its base the moderates and other independents jump ship quickly.
Expect the Republican stench to be around as long as the Conservative party smell was in the UK. It doesn’t seem that Pretty Boy Dave is taking the party to the hard right wished for by Hilda and others, now does it?
Malcolm
116/122 - Can you imagine the consequences if Mandelson has to resign AGAIN, after not just being brought back into the Govt but ennobled as well?
I don’t think it would be too outrageous to suggest that such an event would constitute an event that could bring down the Prime Minister.
130. Fair enough – suspect were you in the US you would be one of millions of GOP moderates (socially liberal?) who may just give Obama a go on election day. A lot of Tories on here have fallen into the Obama camp I noticed, as of course have Tories more widely, like Boris.
132 Alex, totally - it would show shocking judgement on Brown’s part, it would be reported as him risking and blowing it all to shore up his own position and the public would be outraged that the disgraced Mandelson, three-time resigner is sitting pretty on a permanent basis in the House of Lords.
The link to the EU probe on Mandy story.
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/article52917.ece
134 - Could bring down the House of Lords!
134 And he might regret his comment about GO at PMQ’s last week.
Just read the News of the Screws headline.
“Mandy faces EU probe”
That’s not an accident.
132
I would imagine that Brown is already bitterly regretting bringing him back.
128. It is an interesting point but Leeds is a far better prospect for the Tories than the other northern urban cities. They lead the city council in coalition with the Lib Dems (although they did go backwards in the last set of elections) and I expect that they will come out with two (Pudsey and Leeds North East) but possibly three (Leeds North West) constituencies after the next election. The other factor of course is that a lot of the people who have created and benefited from Leeds’ economic prosperity live outside of the city.
The NoTW story on the Duchess of Mandelfoy is pretty grim for Labour: she is now the main focus of attention.
Perhaps not quite enough to force her resignation, yet, but still - exactly what Brown does not want just before Glenrothes.
The rumour was that the MoS also had a story on dear Peter. We shall see. Either way the sheer dumb stupidity of Brown’s decision, to re-hire that poisonous, highly-pensioned puff pastry of a man, becomes ever more apparent.
In a word: derrrrr.
‘It doesn’t seem that Pretty Boy Dave is taking the party to the hard right wished for by Hilda and others, now does it?
Malcolm’
That’s the nicest thing you’ve ever said about him.
Softening?
Just alittle?
135. Welcome to the wonderful world of the EU, where democratic government is replaced by the rule of a corporate-political elite who line each other’s pockets and scratch each other’s backs daily. Anyone who engages with this institution becomes tainted by its ingrained corruption. It was a huge error by Brown to bring Mandelson back.
138 - It was quite amusing today to see Brown claiming that he didn’t need to answer any questions on Mandelson because “the EU had investigated it”.
132
What do you mean Alex?? I heard the Great Leader say on the 6pm news on R4 that everything to do with Mandleson had been investigated by the EU and that there was no impropriey. Don’t tell me that you are at odds with the Great Leader?
127. Like Joe Lierberman?
even impropriety
140. As Leeds actually has decent sized boundary (unlike places like Manchester, where the official city area is technically speaking, tiny) surely there are semi-rural bits such as Wetherby etc. that could go blue?
136, 137 Alex and C - quite!
We are what, 3 weekends into the new era of Mandy?
Sky going with Mandy admits he ‘lied’ about when he met Depriaska.
Even Peter Spencer saying this could turn into a political earthquake.
Ironically the BBC will have to give the Mandy accusations due prominence because of the way they reported the GO story.
150 I suspect however that Robert Peston will not poke his nose in if there is an investigatrion.
151 - Sub Judice
135 That’s great story; it undermines Mandy and has nothing to do with the Russian or Osborne.
Mike. A question if you would be so kind?
Is it possible to buy any of the data from a published poll undertaken by a registered polling company and thereby prevent it becoming public?
144
Yes,Brown looking uncomfortable in that interview and getting his excuses ready.
The trouble for the Duchess of Mandelfoy is that she made LOTS of enemies in Europe when she was there: especially in France. Sarkozy, et al, apparently hated her and her free-tradin’ ways.
So they will be happy to dish any kind of dirt that brings her down.
The fact this will probably bring down Brown’s government might not worry them too much either, I mean, oh dear, they might see the end of the dour ugly weird Scotsman who used to go over there and lecture them on how to run their economies properly, like what he do.
F*cking hilarious. Mandy’s only been in the job three minutes and he’s already admitted he lied to everyone, and now he’s under investigation for a different scandal
AND HE’S GOT A ONE MILLION POUND PENSION - PAID FOR BY US, AFTER FOUR YEARS WORK IN BRUSSELS.
Top sausage, Mandy. Keep it up.
How does one become an official sounding “EU watchdog” BTW?
148. Wetherby has had the misfortune of being thrown into seats that have on balance leaned towards Labour. It is now in the redrawn seat of Elmet and Rothwell which has actually strenghtened it for Labour but on a good night it will probably fall to the Conservatives.
156 ‘Watch poodle’?
155 the more it unravels, the more preposterous the return of Mandy becomes really! Even were he in his dotage, tis would have been a pretty dumb thing for Brown to do
Slightly more early voting details out:
http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2008/10/a_memo_team_oba.html#more
Can some bright spark crunch the numbers in CO and FL. They both look too close to call to me, although CO is trending a lot better than early voting in 2004 for the DEMs. Also how do INDs break in those two states?
159 - the other funny thing that he’s already managed to annoy half the Labour Party already with his calls for the abandonment of their forthcoming flexible working legislation.
161 And privatisation of Royal Mail.
New Research 2000/DKos poll for South Dakota :
McCain 50% .. Obama 41%
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/25/131149/34/768/641970
140. The whole system of local government in major cities like Leeds is crazy – the Tory/Lib swap system is damaging for both parties, no wonder the Tories have gone backwards. Can the whole daft system. Have a mayor and be done with it: it’s a far better, much more efficient system in my view and I’m amazed other metro areas haven’t gone down that route after it’s success here in London. That Greater Manchester doesn’t have a mayor, but has 10 independent boroughs and hundreds of councillors is absurd. More, it’d mean more interesting races for us as pb.com.
161. 162. Not policies you want to be pushing to sweeten the base! Does anyone actually support privatising the Royal Mail? I think it should be a public service, I quite like it as a British thing really.
The story going off at a tangent onto Mandy’s ‘other concerns’ will suit Osborne….AND Deprisaska/Rothschild.
This is the best way to divert attention after Rothschild’s spectacular miscalculation.
18.
“she was a breath of fresh air ”
She was a breath of absolutely FOUL air - so foul that she took the McCain campaign massively far away from it’s ‘voice of the experienced maverick’ line into attack dog stuff so disgraceful that McCain ended up personally defending Obama against naive ’supporters’ of his who thought they were ‘on message’ with him by repeating this filth.
McCain obviously only has himself to blame for the Palin choice (which also alienated a lot of real women (who don’t blow 30k per week on makeup) unless, of course, it is true that the people who really run the GOP are faceless nameless ones lurking in the shadows.
If Cameron is asked to comment he should say “It’s a serious matter and while I’m glad to see the authorities are investigating”
161. Yeah. As I said before, I just don’t get it. The re-appointment of Mandelson was so obviously gonna end in this kind of shameful mess…
Just utterly UTTERLY stupid. It seems that, when doing his reshuffle, the prime minister was keen to cleave to the Smithson-Thomas Rule: i.e. when faced with a number of policy choices, Gordon Brown will, after much dithering, choose the option most harmful to himself and his party.
165 - It’s all a bit late now since some bright spark decided the whole thing had to at least break even to survive. Cue dropping all the unprofitable bits that was the reason it was a publicly funded/subsidised service in the first place.
Might as well sell it off now, can’t get much worse.
155. It will not make the government fall.
Just to put the Mandy stuff in context - the CEO is not, as the story implies, some sort of independent or official watchdog - it’s a green/left campaign group dedicated to attacking what it sees as excessive pro-business policies. Jens Holm, the MEP who would like some of the decisions reversed, is a member of the post-communist Left Party in Sweden (the counterpart to the German Left Party). I’m not surprised that they think Mandy too pro-business, and it’s quite funny to see the NOTW using them as sources.
171 - How would you anticipate Brown surviving a Mandelson resignation?
169…’the option most harmful to himself and his party.’
It would be OK if that was he extent of it.
166.
Georgie and Mandy were lovers
Oh Lordy how they did luurve….
Hob-knobbin with Mr Alum’num,
Try’n to get some cash for their guv…..
George carried the can ……
…and Mandy got the big gong!
167. Thinking back, wasn’t Palin actually effectively forced on Macca after his pollster told him that if he chose one of the usual white male suspects, he’d be toast? I’m sure I read that he wanted Lieberman but had his arm twisted into taking Palin.
172 you researched that quickly Nick.
As with George, the question here will be judgement - the judgement of Brown handing this man a life peerage as he takes his million pound pension and possibly cocks a snook at us all
Plans by Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, to spend his way out of the recession facing Britain have been branded “misguided” by 16 leading economists.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/3259676/Economists-condemn-Chancellor-Alistair-Darlings-spending-plan.html
“In a letter to today’s Sunday Telegraph the group argues that Mr Darling’s public works programme, based on the interventionist policies put forward by John Maynard Keynes in the last century, is too risky.”
142 Sally - Got me there.
Can’t find anything to dislike about him, actually. I’d just love to find out his policies; so far he just seems to attack Brownstuff and then agree with most of the current shower’s stuff. Just a tad bizarre to this old political hack, well, former hack. When I was involved it was all about policies.
Malcolm
171. Indeed. That was misleading hyperbole from me.
What I meant was: the ongoing scandal of Mandy will help to bring down Brown - eventually. Any chance of a bounce from Yachtgate is now gone, leaving them 15 points behind… and I think, in time, Mandelson’s mere presence will corrode Labour from the inside out.
But, yes. I doubt his possible resignation would bring down HMG in itself.
95.
“Joe The Plumber fancies becoming a congressman. ”
With his reported contempt for rules and regulations, he’s a humdinger of a choice!
176 - sounds plausible. It’s about time politicians stopped paying attention to the short term judgements of pollsters, and gave more independent thought to the longer term consequences of their actions.
166. 175. I think political discourse would be much improved if Mandy, Ozzie and the Russian Billionaire were forced to live full time on the Rothschild party yacht, and could drink only champagne. The news networks would have daily briefings on who same what to whom and everyone would forget about the recession amid the incessant, tawdry hilarity of it all.
Excellent piece Morus. I noticed SeanT saying how fortunate we all were to get his prose for nothing. In my opinion an accurate assesment of it’s worth. In your case we are indeed fortunate.
180 not so sure Sean, I think there is every chance igt would fatally wound Brown and force his removal and hence a likely short order election - a technical defrocking of the government in any case
The Sunday Telegraph as had a letter from a group of economists attacking Darling’s proposed capital projects spend, spend, spend policy arguing instead for tax and interest rate cuts (The Cable-Redwood Manifesto perhaps)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/3259676/Economists-condemn-Chancellor-Alistair-Darlings-spending-plan.html
Problem is that letters from economists always make me start to think the policy they are attacking is correct; need a letter from twice as many attacking the first group then I’ll feel comfortable that they are right.
Isn’t the CPS supposed to rule on the Peter Hain case soon?
172. Would this be Nick Palmer, the ex communist, casting aspersion on… ex communists for being ex communists? Someone run that by me again.
And, while Doctor Palmer is on here spinning for Gordon, perhaps we can get the official Labour Line on Mandelson’s Deripaska lie. Why did the minister lie? Is he trying to hide something? How can we know he is now telling the truth, given that he lied before? Given that he has already had to resign twice, in disgrace, for previous lies?
And, finally, why are we taxpayers giving Mandelson a million pound pension just so he can come back to London and, well, lie?
178 Damn beaten again - should have hit submit button before checking the oven not after!
178. The strangest part about this story is that the so-called ‘Keynesian boost’ Labour and its brainless cheerleaders have been grandstanding about is (as usual) pure spin - Darling has already announced no change to spending totals, all that is proposed is some minor reshuffling of priorities.
There is no room for a major fiscal boost, as everyone knows, because the public finances were in such a poor state when the recession began. The only realistic hopes for a counter-cyclical boost come from a massive rate cut and further large depreciation of sterling.
185
I dont think thats what CCHQ would want. I think they would want it to rumble on for months and inflicting as much damage on Mandleson and Brown as possible.
186.
Cable backs both state spending on capital projects AND tax cuts (for the poorer half of society only). This probably puts him well away from the Vulcan banker. (intergalactic rhyming slang for Redwood)
re 172. Has the party just emailed you that Nick?
186.
“a group of economists”
four people with five theories?
188 SeanT - lie? Lord Mandelson? Surely it was just that suffering the after effects of dodgy Chinese milk and in the midst of moving house he couldn’t give it his full attention, it was an oversight…
..strange how the same oversight seems to have occurred some time earlier when he advised the same inadvertent mistakes the EU guys investigating the subject.
Hhmnn..
“Mandy faces EU probe”
If this is the NoS front page headline the Jennifer Hudson story happened when the editor was in the pub.
This talk of Keynes is a load of shit. They spent more than tax revenues when times were good and they want to do the same now. It’s bugger all to do with Keynes, it’s just tax and spend.
193. Clearly.
191 MTF, probably yes but I still think a Mandy resignation will be the starting pistol for a GE.
197. Exactly. It drives me round the bend. They call it ‘investment’ in the good times, and ‘Keynesianism’ in the bad times. It’s the same old tax and spend.
199, not unless he resigns in mid-2010.
Brown won’t call one because he wants to stay in power. Likewise the Cabinet wouldn’t force one. Labour MPs in marginals wouldn’t want one.
180. Lets put it this way, only one of the two politicians involved in being friendly with people they maybe shouldnt have is likely to have to go based on what we know so far.
If anyone wants a clue, it isn’t George Osborne.
For Joe Public however Labour is tanking because they are worried about their jobs and now noticing the years of fiscal drag..
193: No, just natural suspicion of the NOTW + a quick google + knowledge of Swedish left politics. Sometimes useful to have a lefty Europhile around…
188: What aspersions? It’s entirely natural that green/left ex-communist groups are opposed to a pro-business commissioner, just entertaining that they’re being cited by the NOTW, that well-known bastion of the workers’ struggle.
199
An interesting point..but by what method? I can only see two. Vote of no confidence or Brown resigning and being replaced followed by a GE fairly quickly. In the first instance Labour MP’s wont vote whatever to lose their salaries and lucrative pensions,Brown will never resign… and I don’t think there is another way??? Or is there????
Alex at 152
I meant before it became sub judice…
Poor ikkle Robinson’s gone to ground regarding his blog. Last entry up to 617 comments.
Here’s the unintentional comic genius last line:
“I get pressure all the time to cover things that suit people’s political agendas and I’m paid to resist that pressure from wherever it comes.”
Yes, you’re a little warrior for truth aren’t you, Nick?
re 153. Sally - The critical thing is if a poll, or even just part of it, gets published. Once that happens the rules say that all has to be made available to nerds like me.
There have been quite a number of cases I’m aware of where a poll has not produced the answer the paper wanted and they have just sat on it. In that case we cannot demand to see the data.
203
You are an ex communist are you not Nick. Birds of a feather and all that….
203. Thanks for that. I notice you haven’t answered my other questions:
“While Doctor Palmer is on here spinning for Gordon, perhaps we can get the official Labour Line on Mandelson’s Deripaska lie.
“Why did the minister lie? Is he trying to hide something? How can we know he is now telling the truth, given that he lied before? - Given that he has already had to resign twice, in disgrace, for previous lies?”
Ta in advance for your answers.
193 Mike
Did you get my email?
192. Redwoods Blog is superb however, he dissects the present situation remarkably well.
Like him or loath him, he does know what he is talking about.
re 206. Further to that you might recall last February when the first YouGov poll showed Boris in the lead. With an hour or so Ken announced details of private Labour polling which gave a different view.
As soon as Ken spoke I was able to claim that as the client had published part then I could see the whole. Ipsos-MORI gave me the data within a few hours.
200 - It is to Keynes eternal misfortune that he couldn’t have lived to counter the neverending bastardisation of his work by greedy politicians.
125/148
Another factoid: Leeds has the highest acreage of green space (parks and gardens) than any other city in GB thank to the larger boundary as mentioned in pst 148 compared to similar cities.
Also, in this pi$$ing contest, the ‘City’ of Manchester (i.e. not Salford, Sale etc etc making ‘Greater Manchester’) has a pop. of around 300k. The MetDist of Leeds approaches 750k. Leeds is the third most populated city in England, something the media forgets.
203 Nick - the NOTW has done more for the workers of Britain than you ever have or will do.
202.
“If anyone wants a clue, it isn’t George Osborne.”
If anyone wanted a clue, Goerge osborne is the last person you’s go to.
My Spectator today says that he’s “all at sea”. Now the Spectator, besides providing premises for various Tories (Boris, Blunkett etc) to develop new lines on adultry is about as true blue as they come. If they are going down on Squeaky Osborne bigstyle thern summat’s up.
201 MD but I expect a Mandy reignation to be the event which forces Brown out (Labour outrage at the damage he has wrought with Mandy) and hence a short order election after a leadership battle.
Just dropping in to say great article Morus. Bye
re 209. Yes - and I have responded positively. Thanks. I need to plough my Obama winnings back into the bookmaking industry some way!
Trawling through LabHome I noticed that on 21st October a genius called Howard posted that Osborne lied about his links to Deripaska and should therefore resign. No doubt he’ll be following his logic through this very evening.
The Goldwater’s are against McCain:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/cc-goldwater/why-mccain-has-lost-our-v_b_137150.html
179 The awfulness of Brown is something we can all unite on.
However, you brought a smile to my face. Although for the time being, I will put your mellowness down to the prospect of an Obama POTUS.
The Leadership challenge to Gordon may have gone quiet, but the ambitions of those who still want his job have not gone away. And those people probably very largely overlap with the subset of folks who want to see Mandy crash and burn.
How delicious it would be if the Milibands and Harmans of this world should act as the conduit for the briefings which sink the arch architect of poisonoous briefings….
Not sure if this has been posted before, but it made me laugh:
http://www.palinaspresident.us/
214 - Kingbongo - completely mindless contribution
213.
“Leeds is the third most populated city in England, ”
Rubbish, you’re talking about the Met borough which includes all sorts of places that aren’t really Leeds. Most of Manchester (and a lot of Birmingham) has been carved out into neighbouring boroughs which, nearly 40 years later, the natives still shun with a vengence and identify with not one bit.
Leeds is Britain’s fifth city, after London, Manchester, Birmingham and Glasgow.
213, I can tell you that a few people I know (yes yes, this is an anecdote) were livid when millions was spent in preparation for a tram system, and then the government backtracked on an earlier promise and cancelled it.
Particularly given the massive expenditure on transport in London, and the fact that other cities have trams and the like.
Leeds is a bloody big city (and has pretty nice architecture too, actually, although the entrance to the Victoria Quarter is now horrid glass and white metal) and if they can find billions for London they could find some cash for us.
215 - the Spectator on its weekly news cycle takes a bit of a risk commenting on day to day stories.
207: Yes, MTF, as we all know what I thought in 1968, because I’ve told you. And your point is…?
208: I’ve no knowledge of his diary or whether he reported it accurately.
214: lol - in the seanT sense of providing them with more totty to look at? Or what other NOTW achievements did you have in mind?
213. I’m not from either city but the population claim to very spurious. The reason Leeds comes up as bigger on official data is only because its boundary is so much greater in scope than the official city of Manchester. You can walk ten minutes from the main shopping street in central Manchester and the bureaucrats would say you are not longer in Manchester, despite the fact that you are surrounded by the buildings of Manchester city centre. It’s exactly the same sort of twisting of data that allows the BBC to repeat the claim that there are no Tory councillors in Manchester. There aren’t in the City of Manchester Council, but that’s an administrative unit rather than a city in any geographical sense. Manchester’s geographical population is around 2.5 million.
213. I’m not from either city but the population claim is very spurious. The reason Leeds comes up as bigger on official data is only because its boundary is so much greater in scope than the official city of Manchester. You can walk ten minutes from the main shopping street in central Manchester and the bureaucrats would say you are not longer in Manchester, despite the fact that you are surrounded by the buildings of Manchester city centre. It’s exactly the same sort of twisting of data that allows the BBC to repeat the claim that there are no Tory councillors in Manchester. There aren’t in the City of Manchester Council, but that’s an administrative unit rather than a city in any geographical sense. Manchester’s geographical population is around 2.5 million.
216, still wouldn’t bet on it. The Cabinet is a cabal of cowards, crooks and c-. Ahem. This is a family website.
They could’ve and should’ve knifed Brown in the early part of this year, or, better yet, had a leadership contest. The goalposts have shifted too much to be taken seriously. Milipede’s revealed himself as a schoolboy, and a thick, geeky one at that. Harman’s become unity, and there are no big hitters (perhaps excepting Mandelson) to try and axe Brown.
Hi Kingbongo. ‘the NOTW has done more for the workers of Britain than you ever have or will do’
Can we have better and further particulars or are you being ironic?.
210 Gaz
“Like him or loath him, he does know what he is talking about.”
He does, but nobody else does; it was always thus.
Malcolm
225. Snap. See my response too.
Judging by previous form I can’t see the Labourites having the bottle to replace McBean apart from the Mandy-Campbell axis of evil. So if Mandy goes I’d see that as strengthening McBean personally. (I don’t think Mandy coming back was Mcbean’s idea.)
~~~
Palin’s ace. McCain’s a tw*t.
The left has got more and more anti-Jewish and anti-Israel since the end of apartheid. The neo-cons are (mostly) Jewish liberals who moved right because of it. That’s where the “neo” comes from. They’re pro-Israel liberals as opposed to anti-Israel liberals. They’re not right wing. That’s why they’re in favour of mad, expensive wars in countries next to Israel but pro mass immigration at home.
McCain fits their agenda because he’s a patriotic liberal. They had to pick Palin as VP because his and their agenda appeals to almost no one in the states as almost everyone is either very against the wars or very against the immigration or very against both. What they didn’t count on was just how far the media would go to destroy her.
As the white population of the US heads towards becoming a minority, politics there (as everywhere else) will become more and more dominated by (literally) tribal identity politics. The Repubs will eventually be forced to become an American nationalist party because of the balkanization or another party will form and replace them.
If the Obamoonies win I expect a very radical shift in US policy towards Israel.
Reasons why McCain should have picked Paris Hilton
She’s smarter.
She’s prettier.
She’s a highly-effective businesswoman.
She already has clothes.
Sordid details of her early sex life is ALREADY on the web.
He could line her up for wife number three?
231 This is all true. We will see I guess. I wonder if Straw wouldn’t wade in and say enough is enough..
226. It was a disgraceful decision Morris, but I wonder if now may be the time to revisit it, as land values have fallen sharply in recent months. I guess there may well be more labour about too.
Considering the NoTW’s main reader demographic is “the working man” it seems rather silly to argue that it is completely divorced from his opinions.
237, not on his own he wouldn’t.
238, perhaps. I suppose I think the government will piss away our money on the southeast and marginals, but it could do worse, politically, than to try and placate parts of West Yorkshire.
235.
“As the white population of the US heads towards becoming a minority, politics there … will become more and more dominated by .. tribal identity politics.”
Mr Jones your own politics seems to be the nasty tribal type already. Bet you’re a blotchy pink and not white either.
228
The point is that you rubbish ex communists in rushing to Mandys defence but you are one youself.
203. The problem is not that Mandelson or other Eurocrats are pro-business, but rather that they tend to be pro certain businesses, normally large organisations with deep pockets and extensive lobbying power.
And what makes the system really ‘work’ is that these organisations get to deal with people who are not democratically accountable. Markets can be tilted, competitors destroyed, and revenue streams diverted without any reference to public opinion, and minimal risk of decisions being reversed in the future. All it takes is lots of smooching and plenty of cash.
“White people sonn to be a minority in the US”
Supporting data?
235 - and yet 90% of Jews still vote Democrat…
206 Thank you. Heard a rumour…. and that’s just scotched it.
230.
Yes, there are a handful of Tory councillors in Alkrington, Failsworth and Chadderton and quite a few in ‘Trafford’ which is a totally made-up authority. Also some in South ‘Bury’ which is really North Manchester.
Nnnnnnnight from Bangkok. Before I go: I’ve dissed Brown royally for being too frit to go to Glenrothes. But today he did, so I partly withdraw my accusations of arrant prime ministerial cowardice.
However I think this ups the stakes in the by-election. Labour clearly think they can win this, or Brown wouldn’t have bothered. But thinking you can win it, and sending the premier to assist in that victory, means you NEED to win it, or look like a bunch of terrible losers.
Glenrothes is really quite important now: the plotpoint at the end of Act 2.
Kapkap.
236. Wage slave. Very good!
228 .
Well Nick, they “outed” a paedophile teacher at the school I used to attend, lots of inner London kids can be thankful for that at least.
The authorities took your view and sneered at the paper and it was another fair few years before that ******** ended up in prison.
Uh uh.. problems ahead..
BEIJING, Oct 24 (Reuters) - The United States has plundered global wealth by exploiting the dollar’s dominance, and the world urgently needs other currencies to take its place, a leading Chinese state newspaper said on Friday.
The front-page commentary in the overseas edition of the People’s Daily said that Asian and European countries should banish the U.S. dollar from their direct trade relations for a start, relying only on their own currencies.
A meeting between Asian and European leaders, starting on Friday in Beijing, presented the perfect opportunity to begin building a new international financial order, the newspaper said.
The People’s Daily is the official newspaper of China’s ruling Communist Party. The Chinese-language overseas edition is a small circulation offshoot of the main paper.
Its pronouncements do not necessarily directly voice leadership views. But the commentary, as well as recent comments, amount to a growing chorus of Chinese disdain for Washington’s economic policies and global financial dominance in the wake of the credit crisis.
“The grim reality has led people, amidst the panic, to realise that the United States has used the U.S. dollar’s hegemony to plunder the world’s wealth,” said the commentator, Shi Jianxun, a professor at Shanghai’s Tongji University.
Shi, who has before been strident in his criticism of the U.S., said other countries had lost vast amounts of wealth because of the financial crisis, while Washington’s sole concern had been protecting its own interests.
“The U.S. dollar is losing people’s confidence. The world, acting democratically and lawfully through a global financial organisation, urgently needs to change the international monetary system based on U.S. global economic leadership and U.S. dollar dominance,” he wrote.
Shi suggested that all trade between Europe and Asia should be settled in euros, pounds, yen and yuan, though he did not explain how the Chinese currency could play such a role since it is not convertible on the capital account.
A two-day Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) of 27 EU member states and 16 Asian countries was set to open on Friday. Though few analysts expect much in the way of concrete agreements, Shi said it could prove momentous.
Is the $ about to go pear shaped i hope so
“How can Europe and Asia grasp each other’s hands and together confront the once-in-a-century global financial crisis sparked by the U.S.; how can they construct a new equitable and safe international financial order?” he said.
“The world is waiting for this Asian-European meeting to achieve big results in financial cooperation.” (Reporting by Simon Rabinovitch; Editing by Ken Wills)
As of the 2001 census, Liverpool was the 4th largest city in the UK, Leeds 5th, Manchester 9th…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom#Cities_and_conurbations
253. Rod, take a look at the posts above. That data is based on administrative units, not geographical city areas.
The Newsweek poll yesterday had a question about who Republicans want to lead their party into 2012, the results were -
Romney - 35%
Huckabee - 26%
Palin - 20%
They were only given the three choices.
Another question was if they valued taxes/economy/national security or abortion/guns/’family values’, the results for this were -
Taxes etc. - 56%
Abortion etc. - 34%
Probably a high margin of error but gives some indication.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/165570
Labour’s favourite economic commentator wants to know why we are leading the US into recession rather than following it, if it was all their fault?
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5010650.ece
225. Actually, I think you’ll find that our third city is…..Hull. Speaking of Hull City, is that chap Albion Til I Die posting tonight? I assume he’s one of the Baggies that’s been mauled by the Tigers.
246 It’s curious how Jews are still solidly Democratic in the US, but now heavily Conservative in the UK.
258 Perhaps they’ve decided they like voting for the winners?
254. You’d have to explain to me the difference, as it’s not clear..
252 The problem with that argument is that people are still piling into the Dollar.
242. “Mr Jones your own politics seems to be the nasty tribal type already.”
Human nature. Tribal and terriotorial. Multi-culturalism -> balkanization -> balkan ending with tribe based parties. Just a matter of time.
It’s not something I wish. It’s been made inevitable by the insanity of the left.
248. I think the bureaucrats call Failsworth, Oldham. The whole thing is a complete nonsense, an inefficient, bureaucratic mess that needs dumping completely in favour of a London-style mayoral system with real powers and controls over finance.
Well the first newspaper front page is in on PH:
http://www.politicshome.com/#4079
259 It’s more decisive than that. Anglo-Jewry is now heavily (70%+ ) Conservative but US Jewry remains even more solidly Democratic.
In both countries there are stereotypical left wing Jewish academics, but it’s clear the UK population has broken with them.
264. Tigers winning away, venison casserole, Rhone red and Mandy all over the Sunday papers. It can’t get much better than that can it?
264 Someone should photoshop that front cover IoS picture of Mandy with the 1997 Tory “demon eyes”. Ditto the NoW cover picture.
266 Tigers winning away….again. Yawn.
Rasmussen is increasing its party id for the coming week from Dem +6.7% to Dem +7.2% :
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_rasmussen_reports_partisan_weighting_targets_40_0_democrat_32_8_republican
265. SeanF. Is there polling evidence and if so which?
268. Sadly, I don’t think you’ll be yawning next weekend after mighty Tigers show up at the Theatre of Dreams.
257 Steve
I think it’s Albion in the ‘perfidious Albion’ sense…not West Bromwich.
I wonder if Roger would like to reconsider his earlier prediction that Osborne is more likely to lose his job than Mandelson, given the latest stories on Mandy and the seeming inevitability of more to follow?
257.
“our third city is…..Hull.”
UR John Prescott and I claim my UKP5.
Kingston on H is surely smaller than Southampton, Liverpool, Nottingham, Leicaster, Newcastle, Sunderland, Sheffield…..
262 LOL!
No Jonesy, not human nature - your nature!
Sam Coates on the Red Box notes this little gem from an interview that Alan Johnson gave to the Telegraph today.
And what did Alan Johnson mean by…
”
… this in the interview with the Telegraph this morning:
In the interview, Mr Johnson, who was tipped as a potential Labour leadership candidate in the summer, also disclosed how close Gordon Brown was to being displaced as Prime Minister. He said: “The culture of betrayal is ingrained in our party”.”
Hmmm, not quite the endorsement of eternal loyalty and unity that some in the Labour would have have us believe.
272. You’re probably right but it was worth a try. We’ve never had bragging rights before so keen to exploit it while we can. I think posting might be light this week after Scolari’s lot visit us and then we go to Man Utd. Having said that….think Arsenal.
268 MM. I thought the Tigers got clobbered by the Cardiff Blues ?!?!
Don’t know if someone posted:
‘No interference’ from Mandelson
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7690998.stm
278.
And Cardiff might even be bigger than Hull, too.
258. Maybe they’re just smart enough to be with the reasonable party on both sides of the Atlantic.
274. Football dear old chap. Check out the Premier League table.
243: This rubbishing of which you speak, where is it?
280. I’m sure Cardiff is bigger than Hull but they’re not on MOTD tonight. Speaking of which, got to go now. I shall be back later to hear the latest on Lord Mandelson.
275. “No Jonesy, not human nature - your nature!”
Just me. Wow. Lebanon, Yugoslavia, Rwanda, Kenya, Northern Ireland, Black-Pakistani conflict in Birmingham, Black-Hispanic conflict in California and the whole of human history.
All just me.
“Lol”
283
you meant this in an other than disparaging way then?
“that they’re being cited by the NOTW, that well-known bastion of the workers’ struggle.”
255. It won’t be any of them. Someone will arise who is experienced (not Palin) and unites the tax-cutters (not Huckabee) and evangelicals (not Romney). They were crying out for this this time round, which is why Thompson got such high poll ratings initially despite being terrible. It will also be someone who is savagely partisan, as that will inspire disillusioned Republicans and moderates will have (temporarily?) left the party. He will lose and then there’s a chance a moderate could come through in 2016.
278 Hull Tigers old boy, not Leicester Tigers. But you’re right - Leicester Tigers were hammered by Cardiff Blues. Yet another negative kicking game caused by ELVs…
283 Oh come on Nick.
We rubbish you on every thread.
285.
Your attitude (and some of those of which you speak) is typical of someone not confident in their own identity. Consequently, you feel threatened by other cultures instead of embracing them.
People genuinely confident in their own identityy have no problem with each other.
283
188: What aspersions? It’s entirely natural that green/left ex-communist groups are opposed to a pro-business commissioner, just entertaining that they’re being cited by the NOTW, that well-known bastion of the workers’ struggle.
by Nick Palmer MP October 25th, 2008 at 8:53 pm
Considering that I think you would not post that you were against Mandleson, your citing of these personages has to be designed to rubbish their reasoning and therefore by default defend Mandleson. That’s what I read into it anyway, unless of course you are opposed to Mandleson>
285 Must be me that’s the misfit then, Jonesy!
The Scotsman reports Gordon Brown so enjoyed his visit to Glenrothes he’s visiting again. He’ll need to visit a lot if he is to fulfil his objectives:
“I wanted to come and explain to people what we are doing in this global financial crisis to make sure people are properly protected.” - he met 6 adults and two children (4 & 13 months) in a cafe next to Labour HQ, so he’ll need a while to get round to the other few thousand.
Other lines (It’s all Americas Fault):
I am trying to explain also that we are dealing with a global financial crisis that has hit the Scottish banks.
“It started in America but it has hit all countries and we are leading the world in taking action to sort it out.”
“Everybody knows this is a global financial problem that started in America then affected the whole of the system,”
There had been “irresponsible and undisclosed” lending by financial institutions, and assets that proved worthless were sold on to the rest of the world.
“We have got to deal with that problem – a problem we did not know about that started in America but a problem we have to deal with,”
A problem we did not know about??
Luckily for us though “”We are taking the right decisions and the long-term decisions that are necessary.” & “”We are taking the action necessary because we are building on some of the strongest foundations that have been created over the last 10 years,”
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Glenrothes-byelection-Brown-meets-voters.4629992.jp
Musing on the GOP situation further, I think one of the key lessons of politics for parties and activists is that it’s not just about if you lose but HOW you lose.
The GOP now look like the Conservatives in the spring of 1997. The activist base is demoralised and reduced, they are being outfought, outgunned and outthought by their opponents at local and national level using a lethal combination of new campaigning techniques and old-fashioned volunteers on the ground.
To make matters worse, internal dissension within and between the McCain-Palin campaigns is breaking into the open and creating a further sense of discord and disunity.
The onus for rebuilding and rebranding the GOP will switch to the House and Senate Minority Leaderships and that will be the challenge. As always happens, the new incumbent will make mistakes and begin to fracture his support coalition so the GOP will have the opportunity to rebuild its base but how far and how fast is open to question.
292. I just hope us Angles can get rid of those bastards Saxons. They don’t integrate, they keep their own language…
293, I will be thrilled if Labour lose that by-election. Perhaps even moreso if it’s by a tiny margin.
I wonder whether Robert Peston will report on the new probe into Mandy - maybe he is already penning a piece in excitement as I write
Socrates, someone mentioned Gingrich was making some long term plans. Does that sound plausible to you?
291 - not just me then
71 - Am confused, Jan. Don’t have time to examine the archives, but distinctly remember you saying (or something like it) that PA was a state that might go GOP in 2008, because the Kerry margin in 2004 was pretty puny for such a large state.
235 - Yer gobbling yer medicine chest.
As a Forest fan, I can only dream of winning a football match….
Reposeted from previous thread:
I speak as someone who normally supports the BBC….
My son’s girlfriend is Spanish, and doesn’t speak very good English. Someone came to her flat demanding to know about the TV. Her landlord lives in on the site and has a TV, She does not.
A few weeks later, she received a Summons to appear in Court for non-payment of a TV license (for a non-existent TV). The Agemcy collecting the license fee refused to accept her argument that she had never had a TV in the UK in her life.
Faced with losing a day’s pay to go Court and possibly losing her job, she had to pay them to drop their action.
I suspect that most MP’s have similar stories on their case list. If it were a private company, rather than a State one, there would be Questions in Parliament, and Michael Crick would be making documentaries about the Director-General.
I was until recently a strong supporter of the license-fee model for funding broadcasting. No longer. Regardless of the quality of the BBC’s output, this sort of behaviour will lead to the BBC being wound up.
301. I’ll commiserate with you. It’s getting deeply worrying. I will be going to Palace on Tuesday so we’ll see if they can improve. But we need to start winning soon.
301 As a fellow Forest fan, I concur. I knew this season would be tough, but…
Maybe when Earnshaw returns to fitness…
229/253
I think you can only go by current administrative areas, otherwise where do you draw the line? Using old ‘city’ areas will bring you the figures mentioned by RodCrosby, but they are irrelevant in West Yorkshire as each of the five component towns/cities all stretch beyond that older city boundary. Blame the Heath Government for that! If you class Otley as outside Leeds, do you class Horsforth as within? Horsforth folk would disagree! A very blurred line.
The towns and cities surrounding Manchester are far larger and more distinct than those surrounding Leeds (Otley, Wetherby, Garforth, Morley and Pudsey). They are large enough to support their own administration. Those of Leeds certainly are not. A great % will flock to Leeds each day for work. Indeed, Bradford now sells itself as a commuter base for those working in Leeds!
Postal boundaries are no good, btw, given that Bradford postcodes stretch to Settle and beyond (where they meet Lancaster postcodes, two obviously neighbouring conurbations!).
I admit this is a sticky wicket, but administrative areas have defined boundaries. Other definitions are a bit fuzzier methinks.
296 No, by a very big margin I hope.
That line “a problem we did not know about” - that’s a killer really regarding the capability and competence of the Treasury, the FSA and the BoE. Must have stopped reading the papers, watching the news, reading anything from analysts. Didn’t know about it cos it was in America see.
299 You mean there’s two of us?!
295 Saxons?! You’re lucky mate. Nothing but Normans around here. Can’t speak Anglish and stink of garlic. Place is overrun with them.
It’s all the Govenment’s fault, of course.
308 Everyone knows Saxons were imported from America so how can it be the governments problem?
306 The first few callers on Any Answers today all said it was Gordon’s fault. Don’t think his “it’s America” line is working…
Any polling evidence to support that conjecture does anyone know?
306, a crushing margin would be enjoyable, but a tiny one would leave them all in agony. “If only we’d campaigned just a little bit harder…” etc.
The most important thing is that Labour lose.
298. His affairs have made him unpalatable to the evangelicals, geneal social conservatives and also the rural Midwesterners that Obama has won this year. I do think he is thoughtful and reality-based enough to be a key figure in a resurgence. One of the few Republicans not to have his head in the sand regarding the reasons for their defeat. He hasn’t really formulatd any good suggestions on how to come back though. Perhaps the GOP could become the party to streamline government instead of simply dismantling it, but I’m not sure the non-evangelical base would accept this for several years.
Just been watching BBC news. Thought Mandy was in trouble there for a bit. But BBC helpfully concluded that the European Commission have given him their strong backing, which may be the end of it. So no pesky unanswered questions or anything of that nature then. Good, I can sleep soundly.
298 - will give you my 2¢ worth on that one: NO
Newt makes even less sense (blast from the past) for the Republicans than Hillary did for the Dems in 2008. Like Hillary for the Democrats; Gingrich is part of the GOP’s problem NOT the solution.
313 OK. I expect The Sun will be satisfied.
313, I can recommend Sky News. I was watching it briefly an hour ago, and Sarah Jane Mee is looking bloody fantastic.
Latest ABC News/Washington Post tracker :
McCain 44% .. Obama 53% .. No Change
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/behind-the-numbers/?hpid=topnews
309 EVERYTHING’s the Government’s fault. Wanna argue about it?
314. 2c is a lot of money over here these days, SSI. Thanks.
Uh oh. More Russian trouble ahead.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5014782.ece
317 JackW
The main polls seem to have been very stable for a while now which of course suits Obama just fine.
Although I backed off my bullish Obama position recently, I’m beginning to think now there is a real possibility the GOP could implode over the last few days as it becomes increasingly obvious they are about to lose.
What say you, O Greybearded One?
318 I stand corrected!
321. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/24/AR2008102402698.html
The data shows another big drop in Palin’s favourables. Maybe the shopping thing played badly.
What do we think of the Keith Mothersson’s scenario?
Didn’t get the chance to comment earlier?
Answer - stark staring bonkers, are you sure that Mr Mothersson isn’t a creature?
321. Implode how?
The GOP will try blaming each other, it’s inevitable with such a bad defeat. But this is following a poor, poor presidency, probably one of the worst post-war. They will lose alot of senate seats too, popular and electoral landslide. This is, as a poster above pointed out a conservative post-1997 issue.
The base is badly demoralised. They have no obvious ways forward. No plan for rescue, and the worst is yet to come (Nov 4th) and a democratic White House. Their leadership potential is pretty thin at the moment, party membership is low.
Political parties don’t implode, they argue, discuss, and will eventually get around to becoming family again.
321. Do you think that this socialist, anti-American thing will have any effect? It’s nasty, vicious stuff going into the last week, but then again…
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/25/obama-clinton-campaign/
323. Her Alaskan scandal filtering through is more likely.
322 LOL!
In fact one of my favorite little dictums is that those who complain most about the way ‘The Government’ (any color) runs things are generally those least capable of running anything!
At times, reading PB does little to contradict that.
321 PtP - what’s your meaning of implode in this context - Texas?
“Is Gordon Brown pondering an early election?”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/3259158/Is-Gordon-Brown-pondering-an-early-election.html
323 “Maybe the shopping thing played badly.”
Well it didn’t really sit well with the ‘Hockey Mum’ image, did it?
327. Hardly. It more of a case of a sustained attack on her these last few weeks, IIRC, Hillary Clinton had to cope with a barrage of attacks against her, but over a longer period and slower. Along with other things like the scandals and investigations.
Someone should ask about Obama’s designer suits..?! no?
324 It was largely ignored, Chris A, with considerable justification.
Goodnight all, dont forget to put your watches and clocks back if you are in the UK……
Meanwhile, it looks as if the early voting data has been updated for FL.
DEM id now stretching the gap – now have 3.5 pt advantage over GOP id. Was only 1.5 pts or so on Friday’s figures IIRC. GOP have an advantage on absentee ballots in the state but David Plouffe was saying on Friday that they would catch up with increased in-person votes by Monday.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article5014781.ece
“Banks and credit card companies are exploiting obscure legal powers to seize the homes of thousands of people who cannot pay their credit card bills.
In some cases, people owing as little as £1,000 have been served with charging orders – the legal instrument enabling a creditor to order the sale of a property.
The practice has emerged days after Yvette Cooper, chief secretary to the Treasury, called on banks to do more to allow people to keep their homes.”
329 Texas would certainly count as ‘implosion’, PfP. I’d settle for Arkansas.
330. No.
335. Link: http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
325 “Political parties don’t implode, they argue, discuss, and will eventually get around to becoming family again.”
I hope you are right and the sooner the better, Jaz. Weak ‘oppositions’ are very bad for democracies.
PtP. I’ve sent you an email.
184 Roger
I am often of the opinion that what you write is wrong.
But it’s/its errors are fact, not opinion. Am I wrong to judge people by their grammar?
(or even spelling - assessment…)
327. Yeah true – forgot about that. It’s been a crazy week.
321 PtP. Possible. There’s been a deal of specualtion over the ether and in the MSM over extensive in-fighting within team McCain/Palin. Certainly the GOP mood music is sombre as they look over the near horizon at the potential Democratic tsumani heading their way all the way down the ticket.
If this narrative gains further traction and the GOP appears split then even more Independents and swing voters will peel away and vote Obama et al.
re 334 or indeed large parts of the northern hemisphere on this side of the Atlantic.
341 Yes. I’m baffled by it, StJohn.
A case of mistaken identity?!
do absentee ballots tend to favour republicans?
I give Palin a pass on the shopping spree. Fault McCain campaign for not handling this in a more professional (that is, less boneheaded) manner. But apparently all the compentent Republican operatives have already lit out for greener pastures.
However, the fact that Palin signed up for the “Un-American” attack means that I am DELIGHTED to see her go splat.
A real pit bull with lipstick is just a vicous cur.
I never thought it would get this far:
John Hutton has become the first defence secretary to back a French plan for a European army, branding those who dismiss it as “pathetic”.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5014832.ece
314 He makes no sense as a Presidential candidate. But he makes sense, as someone who can regain Congressional ground for the Republicans.
330 Me - the fourth paragraph of the Thelegraph piece reads:
“The likelihood of an early election still remains small, not least in view of the fiasco a few years ago when those around Mr Brown sent out every indication there would be a November 2007 poll – only for it to be cancelled at the last moment”
“a few years ago” - oh come on, where’s the night editor?
351 The kellel calling the plot back methinks!
347. Depends on if the state in question has a lot of military families. Soldiers stationed abroad tend to be Republicans, where most other expats are Democrats.
349, damned silly idea.
347. Yeah insofar as they have more absentee ballots DEM identifiers. So they get a big early hit but what Plouffe was getting at was that rate of in-person voting was such that it meant DEM should overcome that GOP advantage by Monday to stretch the actual vote ratios towards the likely voter poll ratios. That’s how I interpreted what he said.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/10/24/obama-campaign-finds-time-for-boasting/
348 SSI
Your point is similar to my thinking about the hoax mugging. How come none of McCain’s operatives figured out it was a hoax BEFORE they went and organised a call from him and Palin?
VERY amateurish.
347 - Depends where the are from. Varies a great deal from state to state.
Traditionally, GOP has done a much better job of working the old-fashioned shut-ins-and-traveling-salesmen absentee vote.
However, in states where abenstee voting is more widespread, the demographics have been shifting in favor of the Democrats.
This is especially true in Washington State, where the Republicans used to dominate the traditional absentees. But with expansion of absentee vote, absentees are more likely to be Democratic than Republican.
Of course, in all of Oregon and in 37 of 39 Washington counties that have gone all vote-by-mail the absentees are everyone.
351 Well it seems like years..
320. Deripaska is briefly mentioned in David Satter’s - Darkness at Dawn, which is a good book to read if you are interested in the eruption of organised crime in post-Communist Russia including the aluminium wars.
352
358, the Age of Brown seems to have stretched for far longer than it actually has. And what fun it’s been. Floods, a botched election, floods, losing the data of every cat, dog and family in the country, more floods and then grinning and cracking jokes for the first time during the worst financial crisis since an Austrian painter invaded Poland.
346. PtP. With reference to your post at 209 and Mike’s at 218.
351-PfP-LOL.I’m just amazed that this is being considered given the fiasco of a “few years ago”.
354. I assume, and hope that all they want is some sort of UN lite policing force made up on an ad hoc basis with national units. If so, you would have thought they would have been clearer about it.
361 ‘The Age Of Brown’ is in fact an official Unit Of Time. It refers to any year which feels like ten.
363. I think if it is being considered its a suicide election, a mass hara kiri in the face of the recession, hoping to get back in after the Tories have spent a few years hamstrung by the economic circumstances
362 Oh that! No. That’s to do with the Tote Ten To Follow comp, which starts soon.
But when/where are we supposed to be meeting? Have I missed something? Again?
364, I’ve got to disagree with you utterly. The EU has only ever been about endless, mindless integration.
It was sold as a free trading zone. Then they pushed for political integration. Not accountability though. When was the last time you voted for a commissioner?
Then we had the euro, where monetary policy of various nations was surrendered to a European authority.
So that’s partial political and monetary integration. Which leaves a few others.
For a start, military. Answerable, of course, to the EU president. Presumably not elected.
Then there’s the further weakening of national borders by the introduction of the EU-ID card.
After that I think there’s only fiscal policy left. They’d probably sell it as rather than countries giving and receiving lump sums, individual ‘European citizens’ paying a small tariff (1p income tax, a small VAT % etc etc).
Happily Cameron seems to be nice and eurosceptic. Death to Lisbon!
367. Peter. You will set PBers talking! Have emailed you to clarify.
366-thomas-Completely agree.
366. Assuming the Tories win, can they not copy Gordon Brown and blame any unpopular policies they have to introduce or adverse statistics on Labour for the next 12 years?
Below is an article to appear in tomorrow’s Sunday Herald. I shall be in Glenrothes tomorrow and give a report in the evening
SNP ‘still favourites’ for Glenrothes
By Tom Gordon, Scottish Political Editor
THE SNP are “still the favourites” to win the Glenrothes by-election despite months of strenuous Labour campaigning, the Scottish Secretary admitted yesterday.
Jim Murphy said his party had failed to improve on its position as underdog in the 10 weeks since the death of MP John MacDougall in August.
The admission came after Gordon Brown made his first and possibly only campaign visit to the constituency yesterday, meeting six hand-picked Labour voters for 25 minutes on an industrial estate.
advertisementReferring to the SNP and the “final period” of the campaign, Murphy said: “They’re still the favourites. We started as the underdogs, we are still the underdogs - underdogs who lost the election here for the Scottish Parliament.”
He denied he was downplaying Labour’s chances as a tactic to scare the party’s supporters to the polls on November 6.
“It’s just the truth. You can call the truth a canny tactic if you want. It’s just the truth.”
Murphy also ducked questions about whether Labour was enjoying a “Brown Bounce” in the wake of the prime minister’s handling of the UK and world economic crisis.
The SNP this weekend produced canvassing data which they said proved the Brown Bounce was a Labour illusion, with the nationalists polling ahead of Labour among swing voters almost every day during the last month.
“We are working hard for the votes,” Murphy said. “It’s a really, really warm response to Gordon. Gordon is a phenomenal asset for us in this by-election and if time allows he will come back.”
Breaking his self-imposed ban on not campaigning in by-elections, Brown said he had come to explain the government’s response to the global economic crisis.
“We are doing more to help homeowners, we are doing more to help pensioners with their fuel bills and raising the winter allowance.
“Because of the work we have done over these last 10 years, we are better prepared to deal with what is a world financial problem that’s hitting every country.” The three couples he met were picked by Lindsay Roy, the Labour candidate.
The SNP, meanwhile, deployed their own Gordon Brown, an SNP-supporting namesake who met Alex Salmond on his seventh visit to Glenrothes yesterday.
“Unlike the prime minister, this Gordon Brown has a vote on November 6 and can use it, by voting SNP, to send a message from his street to Downing Street that it’s time for action on energy prices.
“What appears to have escaped the prime minister’s attention us that while he basks in press plaudits, gas and electricity bills are thudding through the letterboxes of Fife with rises of up to 40%. They need to be reduced.”
On paper, Labour are defending a majority of 10,664 in the Westminster seat, based on their Westminster win in 2005. However, last year the SNP defeated Labour in the overlapping Central Fife seat at Holyrood, which covers around 80% of the Glenrothes constituency.
A leaked Liberal Democrat memo shows a tally of 2007 votes from polling stations inside the Glenrothes footprint puts the SNP fractionally ahead of Labour. The SNP entered the by-election narrowly in the lead, with 43.3% of the vote, compared to 42.1% for Labour. The LibDems and Tories were on 7.5% and 7.1% respectively.
The SNP last night claimed their doorstep and canvas returns showed no evidence whatsoever of a Brown Bounce, with the nationalists streaking ahead of Labour among swing voters.
The returns put the SNP ahead on the day of Brown’s conference speech last month, the nationalisation of Bradford & Bingley, and the bail-out of the high street banks.
One of those at the heart of the Labour campaign said the party was still lagging badly. “It’s winnable, but it’s going to need a really big effort. We need to convert people, the SNP just need to get their vote out.”
Annabel Goldie, the Scottish Conservative leader, described Brown’s visit as a “total sham”.
“Gordon Brown has been embarrassed into campaigning in Glenrothes, but his cosmetic campaigning with a handful of hand-picked voters was a total sham. He was not meeting real people, real businesses and hearing the real concerns about the real everyday worries that the people of Glenrothes have.”
Mike Weir MP, the SNP campaign manager, said: “While Peter Grant and Alex Salmond have joined local residents at the bingo and the football today, Gordon Brown met another specially-selected audience.
369 OK. Got it now. (Sorry, it’s me age.)
Yes, I will be at Harry Macadams place for the highly top secret meeting at which we hope to make so much money from the US elections that we can not only make ourselves multi billionaires but rescue the UK economy from its financial plight whilst plunging the rest of the world into total economic darkness.
See you there.
356 Right on, bro.
Indeed, was rather surprised that that noted PBer Stars & Stripes swallowed that fairy tale hook, line and sinker.
Turns out that the young lady in question (who it appears is more to be pitied than censured, sort of like Sarah P) was until recently a campus organizer for the National Republican College Federation (think that’s the moniker). Which is one of the sleaziest operations on the face of the earth, essentially a con game/elder abuse racket targeting vulnerable GOP senior citizens and badgering them to empty their life savings into the coffers of the NRCF.
In other words, low life even by Atwater-Rove standards.
368. Maybe its an illusion,but I need it to stay sane. I’m just trying not to let the news kill a small part of me, as has been the case most days under Labour. Hopefully we will try to scupper the Napoleonic Sarkozy plans by watering them down into a UN style institution, taking the pain once again to prevent the continent falling into the hands of an empire.
I hope Cameron delivers. I wish I could say I was confident about it. The Irish solution (as some idiotic under-educated Brussels turdocrat called it) could be applied EU-wide. Any policy on Lisbon won’t be enough., There needs to be some public, legislated declaration that the UK is not becoming part of an EU empire. For that is what the eurocrats want, and they are playing the long game. The legislation needs to asert that EU marks and ensignia will not take preference or even be considered equal in value to the Union Jack. For example,on the matter of number plates. This needs to be in law, because that is what they want,and slowing things down for a few years won’t stop them.
ITV News reported all the Sundays are full of questions about Mandelson.
Apparently he was due to met Deripaska on his Russian trade delegation visit bit the meeting has been cancelled. I thought Osborne was supposed to be committing treason as a prospective Chancellor speaking to this dubious bloke. Yet apparently the UK Government were due to meet him as part of an official trip.
371. Yes, but they think it will play to their narrative better - Tory cuts. Remember their crowing in the HoC after the bank nationalisation?
Anyway, I’m off to bed. Night all.
Sky: Juande Ramos + Damien Commolli (spelling?) have both left Spurs.
376. Seems like this brilliant revenge from Mandy is quickly unravelling and blowing up in his face, now.
Is it going to be this time again in an hour?
381 No I think it becomes 0100 at 0200 er I think!!
According to The Times, Deripaska is ‘Mandelson’s Oligarch’.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5014782.ece
Has anyone told The Guardian?
372 – Marcia, I’m a southerner so please forgive the ignorance but what is the ‘Scottish Labour Parties’ funding situation, are they well supported or almost broke? Do they have a locally raised and ring fenced ‘Scottish fund’ or are they centrally funded from Labour parts dot UK Ltd Plc and not ‘scottish’ with a capital ‘S’ at all?
My reason for asking is that the campaign so far imho with Mrs Sarah Brown the other day and Gordon today et al, struck me as no more than media stunts, campaigning on the cheap for maximum coverage but little else and certainly nothing constructive from the PPC.
Of course I could be talking total rot, blame Stuart who has left us in the lurch, so to speak.
380 I doubt the BBC are covering the cancelled meeting between the the ‘Russian dignitry’ and the British Government.
I wonder who cancelled it. Perhaps Deripaska did after Mandelson gave such unsound media advice to Rothschild.
379. Gus Poyet has also left.
It’s not particularly my style, but I suspect that if certain posters were around they might be saying:
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!!!!!
Steve Garner - the Tigers are still going down this season. Enjoy it while it lasts. No class, no quality. Not that I’m bitter
I must admit it has taken seeing Laura White on x-factor to remind me that life is wonderful and I can still communicate without fear.
383. Well done Mandy, he thought he could use the dark arts in a re-run of the mid 90’s, instead he’s found an embittered press just as interested in battering him as Osbourne, even more so now they’ve found his story has more red meat for them.
382. Crikey. I think I’ll stay up for that. See what happens.
It feels to me that the tide is turning once again against Brown.
Firstly Mandelson. A bold but dangerous decision to bring him back to the heart of government. Dangerous for two reasons. Firstly, it could easily unravel, as appears increasingly likely. Secondly he has invited a cuckoo into his nest who could orchestrate his own assassination.
Further on Mandelson, Brown’s response to Skinner at the end of PMQs was so inept. Brown felt that “Yachtgate” was such a serious situation that “The Authorities” should investigate! Which “Authorities” he is not prepared to say. That looks quite likely to come back and bite him.
Blair would have been much more adept. He would have said that if there was a case to answer then he was sure that the appropriate authorities would investigate. Not made a hostage to fortune.
And now Glenrothes. Brown made it clear that as PM he doesn’t do by elections. Then sends his wife, although he doesn’t use his family as props! Then realises how weak this looks and, possibly prompted by chivalry, decides to go after all! But despite this volte face Labour are likely to lose anyway and he has become more directly associated with the defeat.
Then there is the economic crisis which is both global and for each country has a national element. Despite being Chancellor for the past decade he denies any culpability for the national aspect of our problem.
Instead, in response to some good press, he misses no opportunity to don his Economic Superman outfit as the saviour and leader of the world in the current economic crisis, a line that is increasingly likely to irritate and be ridiculed by other heads of state.
It is far better for others to praise you than to praise yourself. I think it’s all pretty shambolic. As regular readers will know I have never been a fan of the PM. But I feel better to have got this rant off my chest. And needless to say, I’m holding fast to my SELL Labour seats position.
388 Wonder what the Rothschilds think about Jacob’s son Nathaniel associating their name with such a crowd?
385. Given that the Russian chap in question may be about to go bust rather spectacularly, it is a flip as to who cancelled first.
390 fully agree, especially on your last point.
384 - I would have thought they have to rely on the Unions for money - their last accounts to the Electoral Commission is below:
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0018/58500/Labour-Party-Scottish-Labour-Party-Statement-of-Accounts-2007.pdf
it would be interesting to see how much came from within Scotland
Sky: Portsmouth have agreed to allow Harry Redknapp to talk to Spurs.
New Research 2000/Courier-Lee Enterprises poll for Iowa :
McCain 39% .. Obama 54%
http://www.wcfcourier.com/articles/2008/10/25/news/breaking_news/doc4903890740db0457887786.txt
390 “It feels to me that the tide is turning once again against Brown.”
[PtP nods slowly in agreement and then retires to bed.]
Nite all!
in case you are getting bored with US Presidential, check out the following races for US SENATE
1. New Hampshire: Republican incumbent John Sununu versus Democratic former governor Jeanne Shaheen
2. Colorado: Republicans are trying to hold seat of retiring Sen. Wayne Allard (R) with former US Rep. Bob Shaffer, while Democrats are seeking to take the seat with US Rep. Mark Udall
3. North Carolina: Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole versus Democratic state senator Kay Hagan
4. Minnesota: Republican incumbent Norm Coleman versus Democratic challenger and comedian Al Franken
5. Oregon: Republican incumbent Gordon Smith verus Democratic state house speaker Jeff Merkley
Personally think that Democrats are virtually certain to take NH & CO seats, and probably will knock off Liddy Dole in NC; MN and OR just too close to call but am guessing that both Coleman and Smith will hang on for the GOP.
A special case is
6. Alaska: Republican incumbent (and indicted) Ted Stevens versus Democratic former Anchorage mayor Mark Begich
This one likely depends on the jury; if they say Uncle Ted is guilty, think he’s toast; if innocent, think he survives.
Other potential Democratic pickups are:
7. Kentucky: Republican incumbent and minority leader Mitch McConnell versus wealthy Democratic businessman and former candidate Bruce Lunsford
8. Georgia: Republican incumbent Saxbe Chambliss versus Democratic former state representative and state agency director Jim Martin
9. Mississippi: Republican incumbent (former US Rep. appointed to replace retired Trent Lott) versus former Democratic governor Ronnie Musgrove
10. Maine: Republican incubent Susan Collins versus Democratic US Rep. Tom Allen
My guess is that the Democrats will take out one of the GOPers above, but NOT Susan Collins.
There is also one Democratic seat that the Republicans have a (slim) chance of taking:
11. Louisiana: Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu versus Republican state treasurer John Kennedy
Think its highly likely that Mary Landrieu returns to the US Senate
Finally there are are a lot of races that are not competitive. Including two Democratic pickups of seats now held by retiring Republicans:
12. Virginia: Republicans trying to hold seat of retiring John Warner (R) with former Gov. Jim Gilmore, versus Democratic former Gov. John Warner
13. New Mexico: Republicans trying to hold seat of retiring Pete Domenici (R) with US Rep. Steve Pierce versus Democratic US Rep. Tom Udall
And keep your eye on
14. Delaware: Democratic incumbent and vice presidential nominee Joe Biden verus Republican conservative pundit Christine O’Donnell
Here is full list of states with US Senate elections in 2008:
AL
AK
AR
CO
DE
IA
ID - Larry Craig’s (pay toilet) seat
IL
KS
KY
LA
MA - seat of John Kerry
MD
ME
MI
MS - 2 races
MT
NE
NH
NJ
NM
OK
OR
RI
SC - seat of McCain “Mini Me” Lindsay Graham
SD
TN
TX
VA
WV
WY - 2 races
I wonder who the “source” might be?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1080666/Multi-millionaire-Nat-Rothschild-Osbornes-200-000-gift.html
376 - but to be fair, wouldn’t such a trip have been arranged long before he took over from Hutton?
Further exotic Tory party funding news:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/oct/26/party-funding-conservatives-rothschild
394 You can do a search here but it’s not very user friendly:
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/party-finance/database-of-registers
Evening all - just popping in (using the excuse that, because the the hour is going back, my promise to the powers-that-be ‘not to stay up late blogging’ doesn’t apply tonight). Anyway, it looks like the next few days should be fun…
Today’s front pages:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Sundays-Papers—Newspaper-Front-Pages-For-Sunday-October-26-2008/Media-Gallery/200810415128714?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15128714_Sundays_Papers_-_Newspaper_Front_Pages_For_Sunday%2C_October_26%2C_2008
400 Nice try, Nick, except for this:
“Legislation barring anonymous loans, and those from non-trading companies, was introduced in 2006, after the de Rothschild loan was made, so the Tories can legitimately claim all parties were acting within the law.”
403. How disappointing. I thought there was going to be some Mandelson scoop in the Mail on Sunday. Instead it’s good, old-fashioned, BBC bashing.
The Independent and Telegraph look to be putting the boot in though.
400 Clutching at straws Mr Palmer
390 - not sure I agree with your logic. Though clearly Brown risks having his newly applied goldleaf erroded yet again by his own goals, malapropisms & missteps.
For one thing, the world crisis is NOT going away any time soon. Which is Brown’s entire raison d’etre. As for foreign leaders resenting his grandstanding, doubt many will notice as they are all looking into their own mirror, as per usual.
As for Mandy, the risk is clear but so is the guts. Including those of the Shadow Chancellor that are curently lying like hamburger on the deck of the Good Ship Cameron, surrounded it’s true by lots of blue water, but no sign of an anchor.
405-”How disappointing”
Exactly how I feel!
394 - Thanks Marcia, it would appear from a quick glance of this some what flimsy report that although Membership and Subscription fees declined slightly from 123K in 2006 to 114K in 2007 donations actually increased seven fold in 2007 from the year before.
No mention of who the donators are though, maybe Unions or even Russian oligarchs, perhaps the fourth estate could enlighten us?
Ian Martin in the Telegraph on Labour raising its game:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/10/26/do2609.xml
404: Yes, Richard, but the public are getting a bit tired of all these “it may look dodgy but it was just within the law as it stood at that date” excuses. The Tory fund-raising campaign was very effective, but it overreached, to include (unnecessarily, as they were doing fine anyway) a number of arrangements which are clearly designed to obscure. Not only the Tories, but more frequently and more recently.
Not been funny but why has this joker got to tell us about cracking up (Again), Blair-Brown fighting (Again)and the usual tosh:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5013890.ece
This bloke assisted someones death, even if it was indirectly. The man is pure evil and a bully. To my mind he just reminds me of the worst excesses of the Labour party and the complete relience they had on spin. The product that Labour serve up is rotten dog shit, no matter what source and spice they try and dish up the public will relise it is rotten dog shit and throw it up in the Govenments face!
Ooooops - my firewall state of Arizona might not be so safe after all!!!
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/25/191756/56/488/642266
395 - any betting yet?
First!
411. They treat these sh*ts like celebrities.
Hold on to your hats firewall betters, this via Kos -
“Myers Research (D) & Grove Insight (D). 10/23-24. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
Likely voters
McCain (R) 44
Obama (D) 40
Early voters (34% of the sample)
McCain (R) 46
Obama (D) 47
The sample was 40 percent Republican, 33 Democratic, and 26 percent independent. ASU has its own survey coming Monday, and they’ve hinted at similar results.”
414-LOL!
399 & 400 - Has anyone noticed how all these stories about Tory funding seem to include phrases such as “all parties were acting within the law” and “The donations were declared by the Conservatives to the Electoral Commission”
I wonder whether that is always the case for all political parties.
Ted Stevens - as a Democrat should be howling for his blood I guess, and from what I read in the papers does appear he’s guilty.
BUT I hope that he gets off.
Why? Because his crime is that of an old man who has served many years in public life who realized he’s surrounded by people who have made a mint via his own influence. And thinks it not unreasonable to pick up a few perks at the end of his tour.
That is balanced against his service to the people of Alaska since before statehood. Which if you look at the record is considerable. True, the Stevens record is often controversial and occassionally questionable. But the balance has been positive.
So I hope he gets off, this time. Not to mention the above-average chance of a hung jury (given the problems with jurors that began virtually as soon as they began their deliberations).
BTW if I was on trial for anything (except for trying to lynch a brother) I would personally want as many Black people on the jury as possible. Because pound for pound few folks are more likely to forgive a sinner and give the prodigal the benefit of the doubt than the average African American.
Someone posted a link to Conservapedia a couple of nights ago. It’s Wikipedia without the “liberal bias” and has provided me with hours of endless entertainment.
I particuarly like the photograph they have chosen to represent “evolution”:
http://www.conservapedia.com/Evolution
410. I don’t think Brown can keep on troting out the “Best placed” line much longer as it is not going to hold. Personally speaking I think times have been tough for the last 18 months and they will get a whole lot worse. I think only Brown believes his Best placed argument indeed Darling has just contridacted Brown saying it is going to be a long and deep recession.
Frankly I would preffer Darling in Number 10 to Brown because at least he is honest in respect of prospects.
410
‘It may look dodgy but just within the law’
Cash for peerages ?
422. except cash for peerages wasnt within the law, just that the CPS decided it was against the (theirs?) public interest to prosecute.
422. I think this is dreadful given how gas bills have rocketed. Why, has the media forgotten that Labour recieved money from Enron. Then in January 2001 Enron Europe chairman, Ralph Hodge, is appointed CBE in the New Year Honours List:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/blair-weakened–gas-policy-after-enron-lobbying-671717.html
“As scrutiny of Government contacts intensified, officials sought to play down involve-ment with the bankrupt Texas company. The Government claimed its decision to lift a moratorium on new gas-fired power stations, a U-turn announced by Peter Mandelson, then Secretary of State for Trade and Industry, in October 1998, had nothing to do with a meeting he had held with Enron bosses the previous month.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/four-ministers-met-executives-of-us-energy-giant-659056.html
413 - Too late. Ramos sacked per BBC, Redknapp takes over.
89 - election of Lincoln.
The split of the Democrats in 1860 ment that the election of any reasonably qualifed Republican nominee was inevitable. That’s just the math.
The real issue is, could the Democratic split have been avoided? Answer: only if Douglas had never introduced the Kansas-Nebraska Act. Which was his effort to square the circle between slave territory and free soil. So next question: was ANY attempt to square the circle doomed? IF the answer is Yes, then something would have transpired to split the Democrats sooner or later.
BTW one other major political phenominon in late 1850 beside the rise of the Republicans and the division of the Democrats, was the rapid rise and fall of Knownothingism.
372. Thanks for posting that Marcia, it’s given me renewed hope about Glenrothes (from the SNP’s point of view). Having said that, there seems to be a hundred different theories from anonymous ‘party strategists’ about which way the election is going - I suppose we’re still deep in the fog of war.
410
Actually Nick, according to the MoS article it looks like it is Rothschild and his mother will be the ones in hot water since the claim is they misled Osborne about the origins of the money.
It also mentions what a good friend of Mandelson Rothschild is which appears to answer the questions of what the origins of this vindictive little attack on Osborne lie.
420: Yes, Conservapedia has caused me much amusement over recent days. I still can’t decide if it really is a serious attempt by right-wing fruitcakes to create their own Wikipedia, or a p!ss-take of the religious right.
Still, I quite like this comment in Gordon Brown’s entry:
“By the Fall of 2008, Brown’s premiership was increasingly seen as catastrophic by the country as a whole and his own party.”
They got that right, at least…
420. Conservapedia is absolutely hilarious. It shows how when Republicans say “liberal bias” they actually mean anything that isn’t conservative propaganda, whether the facts agree with them or not. But then, thats their due - everyone knows facts have a well known liberal bias.
416. Big shock that! Though I expect that McCain will still carry Arizona but not by much.
Here’s a quick question, who was the last candidate who failed to win his home state?
429. I love the fact that Conservapedia’s motto is ‘the truth shall set you free’ - what it should really say is ‘the truth shall set you free, exit the site here’.
412. Who was mocking me a few months ago when I suggested Arizona might shock a few people with its closeness?
Given local authorities loss of cash - I think Brown & Darling have shown a monumental lack of comptence:
http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/news/article-1080649/Horrified-Darling-knew-Icelandic-banks-trouble-secret-tape-reveals.html
Horrified Darling knew Icelandic banks were in trouble, secret tape reveals
THE UNCROWNED KING OF PENNSYLVANIA
IF John McCain had really wanted to ensure he won the Keystone State, he would have sent Sarah Palin packing, and instead picked as his VP the great JOE PATERNO.
Paterno is the truly legendary coach of the Nittany Lions football team of Pennsylvania State University better know as Penn State. Paterno is 81, has been coaching under the shadow of Nittany Mountain for over half century.
Just watched as Paterno walked with cain onto elevator at Buckeye Stadium in Columbus, Ohio as he heads to press box, from where he will coach his team in today epic Penn State - Ohio State game.
As Joe walked by, you could see everyone standing around the hall - no doubt mostly Buckeyes - get the kind of look in their eyes that one associates with a royal progress. Because Paterno is the uncrowned King of Pennsylvania, and truly one of nature’s nobleman, a prince among men.
433. I wanst mocking you I was point blank telling you that Obama wouldnt win it and I’ll stick with it.
Arry Redknaap the new Spurs boss.
431 Gore in 2000 - if he had, he would have been President.
436. I didn’t think it was you, but someone said at the time my prediction it could be close was evidence of Obamacrat’s fanaticism.
410 I will tell you what, Nick read Simon Jenkins article. I know you won’t take a blind bit of notice, but this is actually important.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/simon_jenkins/article5014720.ece
424 That man Mandelson in the thick of it again…..
435 - BTW Joe Paterno has always been a conservative Republican in the PA tradition; a friend of Bush the Elder, his son ran for Congress as a Republican.
So knock me over with a feather to learn (via wiki) that Coach Paterno is an Obama for President contributor!
More of Conservapedia’s insightful look into Gordon Brown’s soul -
His personality is insufficiently ’sunny’ (where do they get this stuff?)
One of the “negative” things about him is that “he will be zealous in defending British interests (narrowly defined)” - the ‘narrowly defined’ evidently meaning a failure to realise that our true interests always lie in doing whatever is in America’s interests!
If only it was true that Gordon Brown had ‘failed’ in that way, I might have a little more respect for him.
On the plus side, I’ve been set free.
438. Correct!
441. Yes, surprisingly it was never investigated beyond the surface, so it would seem. But given what we know now the Tories should get some MP to write and get the commision to look into it! Maybe that new Backbencher DD as he dealt with it originally!
Looks very dodgy to me and if Spellman can be investigated for 11 years ago I cannot see why Mandelson cannot for something that happened more recently.
That decision on gas power stations could have added up to quite a few early deaths in recent years due to heating not been ample. Not to mention the fact that a donation, ministerial meetings and key decisions were made. I think Ecclestone happened before this so Labour have form!
What baffles me is why the press have protected Labour and not investigated it?
Penn State 0
Ohio Stat 0
1st Quarter, 8:12 remaining
Note that legendary Ohio State coach Woodie Hays was more mercurial than Pateno; Hays lost his job after chasing one of his own players onto the field and attempting to throtle him on national TV.
Still scoreless in Columbus. The OSU oval stadium is a sea of red, the Buckeye color (with white)
442. IIRC Palin was quoting Joe Namath recently, another famous son of PA, and John Elway was campaigning with McCain in CO, so I can see they’re trying to major on the 4th qtr comeback theme. As a big 49ers fan, Joe Montana was the star for me, also from PA IIRC.
FWIW Drudge now breaking that the gap with Zogby was down to +3 on Sat, from +5 on Fri and +7 on Thurs. His numbers have been massively out of whack recently so I wouldn’t place too much to them, but it may drive the media narrative a bit.
USA Today: Paterno adjusts to coaching up in the press box
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/football/bigten/2008-10-23-paterno-side_N.htm
Conservapedia was briefly infiltrated by a few posters from the Guardian talkboards last year; they emended some of the articles for their own amusement, which might explain some strange features, particularly on British topics.
449 Easterross note, Joe Namath is native of Beaver Falls, PA. Indeed, my father watched him play several games as the star of the Beaver Falls High School team.
end of 1st Q, Penn State 0, OSU 0
so far game has all the excitement of watching paint dry.
Just had a great shot on TV of the Penn State coaching staff up in the press box at OSU stadium. All had on big earphones, sitting in a row look out over the field. Paterno looked like Yoda.
US GOVERNORS RACES
WASHINGTON
Incumbent Democrat Christine Gregoire verus Republican former state senator and 2004 candidate Dino Rossi.
This is a repeat of the 2004 cliffhanger, which Gregoire won by 133 vote margin out of nearly 3 million votes cast. Dino is the darling of the GOP base who fervantly believes that their hero was robbed. As do most swing voters. Meaning that Gregoire, who is on points a good Governor (at least for a Democrat) but is a bit of a cold fish (to put it mildly) has never been truly legitimised as governor of all the Washingtons (except DC of course).
So this year’s race is tight as a tick, with Rossi using his winning personality to blame the Gov for $3 billion state budget deficet, sex offenders, you name it. The Gov, who is charisma challenged, is fighting back via major air war. Plus the economic meltdown is on her side more than Rossi’s. For one thing, it makes the Republican brand even more toxic (but see next para). For another, it discounts the value of “likeablity” in a leader and puts a premium on toughness. And Gov. Gregoire is tough as old boots, even her worst enemies will grant her that.
BTW, Dino Rossi is running as “GOP” and never uses the word “Republican”. But he’s a conservative wolf in moderate sheep’s clothing. Indeed, he outed himself during gubernatoral debate by saying he wanted to cut the state mimimum wage (higher than federal minimum) an unforced error that the Gregoire campaign and her allies have been jamming up Dino’s you-know-what ever since.
Recent independent polling has Gregoire in the lead, but not by much. IF trends hold, she’s likely reelected. IF the race tightens, then strong potential for another cliffhanger.
someone forgot us in the North Star State - MN on their list of Senate seats - and our local paper the Minneapolis Star Tribune just endorsed Coleman - well we voted Franken and hopefully he will be our next Senator-elect - and they also endorsed OBAMA -
2nd Q 1:33 remaining
Penn State 3
Ohio State 0
Field goal caps Penn State drive fueled by 49-yard forward pass. So far game has been defensive duel, with both sides evenly matched but slight advantage to Nittany Lions.
356 - drat, yer right Rej but did discuss Coleman - Franken in the body of the piece.
So who’s gonna win in MN for Sen?
Will be a close one - as we have an Independence Party candidate who is on about 18% of the vote and is taking some from Coleman and some from Franken - latest polls have Franken 3-4 ahead so too close to call at the moment - but if Obama polls well here Franken should squeeze in we hope.
2nd Q 0.10 remaining
Penn State 3
Ohio State 3
OSU 41′ field goal ties game 10 seconds before halftime.
World Series rain delay in Phila.
We sadly admit to having FOX on t.v. to watch game 3 - only time we ever watch this channel !!!!!
449 - Do not trust Drudge, he’s reduced to posting single day figures with a massive margin of error.
He desperately pushed the lying McCain aide attack wih no verification, his site gives you the impression that McCain is winning, he has been shameless in playing the race card in the last week and he is desperate in his attempts to get traction with his socialist/Marxist meme.
Do not trust Drudge, unless you want him to lose your money for you.
359 - that’s right, had forgotten about him, he’s taking huge chunks out of Coleman so Franken can (I’m hoping) close the gap.
Speaking of World Series, according to Politico “battleground” poll, presidential race is tighening in Hillsborough County, Florida which is Tampa home of the Devil Rays. As for Philadelphia, the City of Brotherly love and also the burbs including the upscale Mainline (once a GOP bastion) are critical to Obama’s statewide success in Pennsylvania.
Am personally gratified that West Virginia has been edging in Obama’s direction. This has to be a response to the economy. Which is calling upon the souls and bones of Appalachian folk. And telling them its a piss poor year to be voting Republican.
61 - The Simpsons is another reason.
The other night Bart said, “Mom! Mom! I had this really scary nightmare, where our success was the financial basis for a bogus propaganda network!”
time test new
I would like to claim the glory and respect I deserve for linking to the always hillarious Conservapedia. It was me. You can all thank me later.
One of the most popular entires on Conservapedia is the Unicorn page, until recently the page said that unicornsmust be real, because the bible mentioned them. However I think the page has been edited so it’s not so crazy any more.
But at least we can trust an encyclopedia that spends more time and energy on homosexuality than carbon.
435 “If John McCain had really wanted to ensure he won the Keystone State, he would have sent Sarah Palin packing, and instead picked as his VP the great JOE PATERNO.”
Back in 2004, when Obama won his Senate seat in Illinois, the Republicans were very close to getting Chicago Bears legend Mike Ditka to run against him for that seat. Would have been interesting…
401 - lost interest in our little discussion when I provided your exact comment did we?
So unlike you Nick……..