Is one of Gordon’s cabinet a leaker to the Tories?
December 7th, 2008
Could two Labour ministers be giving secret tip-offs?
Potentially the most explosive story in the Sunday papers is a long report in the Mail on Sunday in which the Tories are saying that they have received direct leaks from the heart of Gordon Brown’s cabinet.
A letter to Brown from shadow minister, Chris Grayling, is reproduced in the paper and there’s little doubt that this steps up the ante in the ongoing leaks row. For it suggests that two ministers - one a current cabinet member - having been passing over information.
The issue relates to the relationship between the charity, the Smith Institute, Gordon Brown and Ed Balls in the period before the last election when Balls had become a PPC and had to step down as an advisor to Brown. The question, which has been brewing for months, is whether the institute was involved in “party political activity inappropriate for a charity”
It hard to think that Grayling - Cameron’s leading attack dog - would have moved on this without the full backing of his boss and without having the evidence to back it up.
In the meantime the focus is diverted away from the economy and I wonder which party comes out best from that?
If this is how politics will operate in the run-up to the general election let’s hope that Gordon does wait until 2010. Once the election is resolved there’ll be no more fun!
Mike Smithson
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FPT
351 ChristinaD. “I have read a couple of articles recently which indicate that its thought that the Treasury mole is quite senior, well it sounds like it might not be right to assume that someone is in the Civil Service, but rather in the Cabinet? And that is the damaging mole the government are really after.”
Wouldn’t it be marvellous if the mole turned out to be the Chancellor himself, exasperated at the antic of his Boss, the Prime Minister!
The way this looks, it seems that someone has pressed the button marked “Nuclear”
Perhaps this is related to some tit trying to go after Boris?
Oh, BTW, have I mentioned that I might have a blog?
Mandelson?
re 3. Yes Benedict - and you are allowed to link to it just once a day.
How confident can we be that Marr will lead on this tomorrow?
If I were a bookmaker, I would rate it as being a 100-1 shot.
Dave B, and he gets fired a third time!
Incredible news. But who would ever dare to admit to this - if they did, they could be expelled from the Labour Party.
Am I right in thinking that apart from the Cabinet mole allegations, there is absolutely nothing new whatsoever in the story itself, i.e. as regards the Smith Institute?
Re 5, Mike, Many thanks!
Re 6, Peter from Putney “How confident can we be that Marr will lead on this tomorrow?
If I were a bookmaker, I would rate it as being a 100-1 shot.”
Agreed. He seems to love letting the government off the hook!
Re 7 Raj and indeed 4, Dave B “Dave B, and he gets fired a third time!
Incredible news. But who would ever dare to admit to this - if they did, they could be expelled from the Labour Party.”
No chance he was not in the cabinet at the time..
But then the letter does not say he was..
Curiouser and Curiouser..
The MoS can’t think it’s that big a story or they would have hidden it away as Christina suggests, although its prominence is difficult to judge from the online version.
Re 8, Peter from Putney “Am I right in thinking that apart from the Cabinet mole allegations, there is absolutely nothing new whatsoever in the story itself, i.e. as regards the Smith Institute?”
Yes, but… there is an implication that the Conservative party may have some more info if they can’t get what they want. Possibly.
8.Accept the fact that this story brings up the whole saga again.
How can anyone regard this sort of mindless drivel as fun?
It just shows how shallow the Tories and their apologists have become.
Grayling is the Tory attack dog par excellence - the man deserves a medal for effort.
Person A: Member of Tony Blair’s cabinet, but no longer
Must be one of the following:
Tony Blair, John Prescott, Lord Irvine, Lord Falconer, Ann Taylor, John Reid, Peter Hain, Baron Mostyn, Baroness Amos, Baron Richard, Baroness Jay, David Blunkett, Charles Clarke, John Reid, George Robertson, Estelle Morris, Ruth Kelly, Jack Cunningham, Frank Dobson, Alan Milburn, Patricia Hewitt, Andrew Smith, Stephen Byers, Claire Short, Gavin Strang, Gus McDonald, Helen Liddel, Ron Davies, Alun Michael, John Morris, Lord Goldsmith, Ian McCartney, Peter Hain, David Clarke, Hilary Armstrong, Paul Boateng, Stephen Timms.
From this list, I would say the names that jump out are Stephen Timms and Ruth Kelly. The latter had a difficult departure, mishandled by Number 10, and Timms was a former Chief Sec to Treasury (Cabinet level) under Blair, but moved to two Minister of State (sub-Cabinet level) jobs under Brown, before moving back to the Treasury as Financial Secretary to the Treasury (subCabinet, reporting into the Chief Sec job he used to hold). He now reports into Yvette Cooper, who has his old job, whose husband (and quickly-promoted former SpAd) is the subject of this inquiry and is now Sec of State.
If you were Stephen Timms, wouldn’t you be a bit agrieved at Brown and the Balls family? Perfectly placed in the Treasury…
Person B - Anyone in the Cabinet except Balls, Cooper, and Brown.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_Kingdom
MANDELSON?!?!?!?!
14.Morus, reading between the lines in that MoS story, that was my immediate guess. We forget just how personal this fight has become now between the major players in both political parties.
12 I just don’t see how a story about a charity holding its meetings in 11 Downing Street, rightly or wrongly, is going to interest the public - it’s just too boooring.
It’s a bit of an awkward story at the moment. It needs some ‘definition’ to give it some bite.
Are we to feel sorry for Brown that he was being undermined by senior figures in the Labour party?
Doesn’t it leave the tories looking a bit scummy by revealing details about their past sources?
Are the tories trying to win the next GE or are they content to spend their time scoring cheap political points?
Was the briefing against Brown of any consequence? It would seem not.
16.But, that isn’t the story anymore. It more about Ball’s role and access to the Treasury during his time at the charity.
17.Gabble, you popped up very quickly when this story gained some attention, and you tried some diversion tactics at the end of the last thread.
16/17 - The story is “Brown is doing such damage to the country, that even his ministers are seeking to stop him”.
It’s the unlikely ally argument - not just Tories, not just Civil Servants leaking through conscience, but Labour Cabinet Ministers are briefing against the PM. Also probably hoping to shock him into another heavyhanded leak investigation.
Did everyone see that Boris is being investigated for him comments about Greengate - Lord Toby Harris is leading the charge, which should make the MPA meetings to recommend a new Met Commissioner really awkward!
re 14, Morus “MANDELSON?!?!?!?!”
I laughed at Kevin McGuires (spelling? Sorry!) comment on Corfu. It was nice to see Mandelson attacking someone who was not in the Labour party!
OT
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5299296.ece
£20bn tax package a flop, Gordon Brown told
GORDON BROWN’S private polling has found that his £20 billion emergency give-away fell flat with the public, effectively killing off any chance of a snap election.
20.Morus, in light of the leaks in the last 24 hours about the “frank discussions* between Stephenson and Quick, makes you wonder about who told Boris in person, and the timing?
Yet again, you wonder what the hell was going on at the Home Office and why Jacqui Smith didn’t know?
20. Morus: “The story is “Brown is doing such damage to the country, that even his ministers are seeking to stop him”.”
Morus, it’s late and I’ve probably misunderstood. Were these briefings in 2006 or more recently. If they were 2006, I dont see how your(?) ‘headline’ makes sense today?
22. I would have thought he would have done private polling before the PBR with various options to see which ones would be received most favourably.
I cannot find it, but about a week after Osborne raised the fact that Sterling was tanking. I read an article which talked of some surprise mingled with relief, that the issue was finally being aired in the public domain by some unnamed sources in the Treasury?
20. I posted the Boris story on the previous thread. Here it is again:
“Boris at risk of investigation over Green raid”
“A formal complaint about Boris Johnson’s involvement in the controversial Scotland Yard raid on the Houses of Parliament could lead to his suspension or removal as Mayor of London. He is accused of ‘potentially corrupting’ the Metropolitan Police investigation into leaks from the Home Office, which led to the arrest of the shadow immigration minister, Damian Green.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/dec/07/boris-green-raid-breach-conduct
25.A couple of posters here noted they were polled before the the PBR, in fact the deadline was 3pm IIRC, and the subsequent findings were never made public.
Gabble’s firefighting has made me vote Labour TODAY. Well done Gabble.
22 This so-called “flop” is not supported by Labour’s increased support in the latest ComRes poll.
re 28 surely this lot are not so completely incompetent that they would be rewriting a speech with 30 minutes to go…. oh, I don’t know though.
29
“Every month the Treasury publishes the forecasts of 25 economists. Not a single one has revised their figures upwards as a result of the PBR. The VAT stimulus etc was, ergo, economically irrelevant. Brown’s “dividing line” between “helping people” Labour and “do nothing” Tories can thus be proven to be bogus.”
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3067846/brown-is-trying-to-deflect-blame-onto-the-bankers.thtml
Re 30, Chris A “re 28 surely this lot are not so completely incompetent that they would be rewriting a speech with 30 minutes to go…. oh, I don’t know though.”
Well they are looking to pass the relevant acts to print their way out of trouble, so don’t count on anything! (See my blog for more).
24 - The Blair Cabinet member told the Tories in 2006, but the Brown cabinet member appears to have told them recenty - it’s the latter I was referring to as a leak because of lack of confidence. Might not be the case, but I read the confirmation as being more recent.
26. Well remembered. It was a Peter Riddell article, I believe.
This story is potentially huge. Because it gives new and vivid life to Greengate, which - for all its big constitutional implications - was getting bogged down in legalistic minutiae.
Now suddenly the whole thing has a dramatic human angle. A tra1tor at the very heart of government. Yet Brown himself betrayed and assassinated his former leader, so how can he complain?
The whole scandal throws a light on the murky sordor of Cabinet politicking. This is BAD for Labour. Potentially VERY bad.
Heh.
FWIW My vote is, like others, for Stephen Timms.
29.But it might reflect the drift away from Labour that was shown in polls by Mori and ICM just prior to that ComRes Poll?
30.No, I think a pre PBR poll would be used to judge any immediate change in support of Labour or other reactions afterwards.
Interesting to note that Daring’s PBR - in fact one of the two major statements in the Chancellor’s year is now openly described by The Sunday Times as:
“Brown’s £20 billion emergency give-away having failed”
I guess this is the way the public will see it too.
36 Daring = Darling
(although I guess you do need to be daring too to live next door to the mobile hurler.)
OK, bedtime
35 Presumably Brown will be 95% sure who it is, how will he react?
Indeed how will the mole himself (assuming he’s male) react?
Does a Cabinet mole even exist?
If this story involves a Cabinet Minister it should be big news. Somehow it just doesn’t have the feel of a big story.
Marr is probably right to leave well alone in the morrow.
40. I think it’s pretty obvious the Tories have someone VERY high up in government - hence the PBR leaks, and the governmantal terror over further leaks - which led to Green’s arrest.
Indeed such is the paranoia in Labour circles, I reckon it’s more likely to be a Cabinet politician, or at least an absolute top-ranking civil servant.
Cool!
The story seems to be a little confused (or I am). It starts by saying that the
’senior member of Tony Blair’s administration’ tipped off the Conservative Party in 2006 but then later in the article it claims it happened earlier this year.
It also says the current Cabinet Minister’s tip-off was a ‘few months ago’.
“Well-placed sources say the tip-off from the Cabinet Minister came just a few months ago.
The information from the political figure close to Mr Blair was fed to the Tories through an intermediary earlier this year in a deliberate act of sabotage.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1092580/Moles-row-deepens-Cabinet-traitor-Tory-bid-prove-Brown-guilty-sleaze.html
re 13 - Your idea of “mindless drivel” is very different from mine. The fact that it is in the headlines and has the potential to cause problems for both Labour and the Tories means that it is not drivel.
The very idea that members of Blair’s government and now Brown’s government are passing on embarrassing information to the Tories is explosive - that a leading Tory should go as far as to write to the Prime Minister in these terms shows that they are upping the ante in a way that could rebound badly. This is a dangerous move by Grayling.
The battle between Brown and Cameron is the most absorbing and interesting political spectacle that I have seen in my life-time. Every week, it seems, there’s a new turn and no one can confidently predict how it will end. Brown ain’t going to give up power easily. Cameron desperately wants to win. Fun? Yes.
No sign of this story appearing as yet on the Beeb’s website, not that any conclusions should be drawn from that of course.
42.There are also a pile of young Turks with ambitions to hold high office in the Labour party, just like a certain Gordon Brown, and we all know how loyal he was!
They will not be looking forward to the prospect of a possible large defeat that would leave them with only the rump of the heartlands seating on the opposition benches. Many of those MP’s are doubtfully amongst the kind of supporters they would require. Makes you wonder about the positioning of some of those aspiring future leaders as well.
And, if this causes some disquiet in the Cabinet, well, that will prove its not just Brown and Mandelson and a dangled Euro currency that will cause friction among a certain political party.
Maybe it’s Brown. He’s known to make strange midnight phonecalls - he could be doing it while sleepwalking.
43.Mike, I agree, this is really getting explosive with the potential to be very damaging. And I do not believe that Grayling would have written this letter if Green had not been arrested in the manner he was.
But with Brown at the helm running government now, are you really that surprised that its all getting so nasty and personal, very reminiscent of his modus operandi in Labour politics over many years?
Blair was a worthy opponent in that respect, but will Cameron and Osborne be able to match his skill?
re 44. I doesn’t work like that PfP. The BBC web-site will be guided by what the national news bulletins are leading on in the morning.
If this story has legs it will be taken up in Monday’s papers.
45.seating should be sitting. Time for bed, nite all.
test
Mike. I have a comment @43 which is marked as “Your comment is awaiting moderation”. Any reason for this?
re 52. Gabble - it obviously had something in it that triggered the spam filter. It has now been cleared.
This is one of the prices we have to pay for instant publishing.
53. Thanks Mike.
43.”“Well-placed sources say the tip-off from the Cabinet Minister came just a few months ago.”
Gabble, just remember the precarious state of Brown’s premiership and Labours polling figures just a few months ago…..
Good night all.
I’m off to bed. Sadly no new polls overnight.
I can’t understand it - normally we get at least one new survey on the first Sunday of each month. Maybe the papers are trimming their costs.
What I am pretty confident of is that the Populus poll for December will be out early next week - possibly on Monday evening.
Because I thought we’d get more polling this week I put aside some closer analysis on the Comres 1% Tory lead. I might return to that on Monday.
Observer Editorial. Stand down, Mr Speaker
43 — two leaks, surely, and two “separate” leakers.
seanT @ 42 the first might just have been a civil servant but the second is identified as a “current member of the cabinet”.
That Grayling is prepared to burn his sources implies they are no longer of use to the Conservatives, presumably having been turned by anti-espionage chief Brown.
Hmm. Was not recently returned Lord Mandelson described as “dripping poison” to George Osborne in Corfu?
cabinet minister close to Blair = Jowell.
30 Although, the Populus post-budget poll, and the ICM and MORI polls are consistent with that. I think,though, that public opinion is pretty febrile at the moment.
I thought the most interesting comment in that story was the one in relation to base rates.
The pre-transition first part of this is, I suspect, somebody acting in the interests of a John Reid leadership challenge (but probably not the man himself).
On the second part of this (the Cabinet minister tip off) looks to me to be trying to make something out of nothing. Isn’t there a massive hole in this claim. The idea that this is “confidential information” is simply risible, if it was “a few months ago”, if the information was what Grayling’s letter says it was. This is similar to claiming to have got a confidential tip to read the Guido Fawkes website if you want some dirt on Gordon and the Smith Institute. The idea that the Smith Institute had close links to Brown has been a non-secret everywhere in Westminster for several years. By the time of this tip off, there was a Charity Commission investigation going on into this!
Incidentally, the idea the Smith Institute had been providing “extensive support” is (IMHO) nonsense. It simply did not have any significant capacity to do so, or to do more than hold a range of seminar-style meetings and produce the odd edited collection. Those of us who went along to see if we could read between the lines about an emerging Brown agenda just couldn’t do so - mainly because of the general lack of focus, and the reliance on external academic and civil society speakers, not usually those who could claim any particular inside track. Glancing at their publications list gives an idea of that problem. That’s not to say this type of chuntering couldn’t be useful in talking around issues, but its directionless in policy terms. Brown had extensive support from elsewhere, eg his advisors and I can’t imagine this had much impact at all. (Indeed, he did not get much out of this except a PR problem, but that was partly because he and his people seemed to have little substantive involvement)
http://www.smith-institute.org.uk/publications.htm
If this were an attempt to re-engage Mandelson, then I wonder if we might find out what else George Osborne had to say in Corfu?
The last Tory sally on that front didn’t go so well, but perhaps this one won’t backfire!
One of them could be John Hutton. Ruth Kelly or Peter Mandelson for the other.
Not Stephen Timms. He is now not a cabinet minister and has not been a cabinet minister of Brown’s.
Re: last thread,
As this one is quite quiet I have enjoyed reading the ‘fore-mentioned. Two points I’d like to make…:
Nick P. Excellent contribution (apart from post 321). I look forward to your sans-2010[?] GE musings as, no doubt, you will become the new Martin Day.
Other Richard. The UK will supercede Germany as Europe’s largest economy within a generation. Our economy has flaws, but it’s openness to competition is it’s greatest attribute. Despite Labour, living-standards of Her Majesty’s subjects will not be adversely effected.
P.S. Although I provide a service, I manufacture my software!
Pot stirring from Patrick Hennessy:
“Asked if Gordon Brown’s best bet was calling a general election next June, Balls replied: “I don’t think there’s anybody who has even the slightest chance of qualifying for the label of being wise, who is speculating about election timetables at the moment and I’m certainly not going to join in.
“We’ve got a lot of stuff to get done and we should get on and do it. You know where we were a year ago and that’s all done and we’ve moved on and we’re not going to go back to that.”
So not completely ruling it out then?”
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/patrick__hennessy_/blog/2008/12/06/id_buy_a_ticket_for_mondays_mandelsonballs_dinner
66
Daniel Hannan thinks gov’t debt / taxes have been the key to UK economic decline/growth.
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/46055,opinion,brown-pawns-the-country-for-electoral-expediency
If he’s right, the prognosis is not good.
#68, as an ardent disciple of Michio Morishima, yes our external debt is a concern. [We have to work to pay the interest, and then to pay-off the principle.]
However I’d be more worried if I worked for the French government-owned energy-supplier EDF. The company has a duty to invest it’s pension-fund in secure assets (in order to pay future liabilities): it bought UK energy-suppliers instead.
Smell a bargain in the near future…? I love the globalised economy!
Just watched Niall Ferguson’s lecture “Geopolitical Consequences of the Credit Crunch”. He thinks Mr Obama will lose in 2012, because unemployment will peak during his administration.
http://fora.tv/2008/10/21/Geopolitical_Consequences_of_the_Credit_Crunch
Which now has me all of a kerfuffle. If there’s a 2009 general election, which is won by the Conservatives, could Labour win next time out?
Although I think it unlikely, could Boris be a casualty of, ‘The Green Affair’
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/dec/07/boris-green-raid-breach-conduct
Morning all, Sunday papers thread now open for business.
Thanks
Double Carpet
Tom cruise in his new movie plays Colonel Claus von Stauffenberg, a hero of Germany. His leader was a tyrant and accepted no voice of reason. Intent on draging his country down into the flames.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0985699/
Today’s equivalent is leaking a story in the media.