The final bet of 2008: Will Gord survive till midnight?
December 31st, 2008
What I am carrying forward into 2009
At midnight tonight, assuming nothing untoward happens to Gord, I pick up on quite a hefty bet that I placed in the early summer at 5/6 that Brown would still be Prime Minister at the end of the year. And if by any remote chance he doesn’t there are a another couple of bets I placed at 6/1 and 5/1 at a different time that he would be out by the end of 2008. The amounts staked and the odds are such that whatever happens there’s a profit.
For one of the characteristics of political betting is that often your wagers are fairly long-term. What you have to do is judge the percentage chance of the outcome happening and decide whether the odds being offered represent good value. You can, like with the Brown survival bet, be on both sides of the outcome. When you see a good bet act quickly because others are also on the look out and bookies can change their prices very fast.
I move into 2009 with a series of other long-term wagers including:-
There are a range of other bets as well but, surprising for me, I’ve nothing on the general election spread markets at the moment. I don’t see any value either way.
Have a profitable 2009!
A special appeal to PB’s “Lurkers”: Your votes in the election for PB Poster of 2008 are especially welcome. Most of the voting until now has come from regular posters themselves. Please spare a couple of minutes to give us your view as well. Voting ends at midnight.
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Yes.
1. I was wrong with my prediction at the end of the last thread (as usual). Good thing I’m not a betting person.
Jacqui Smith: I’ve got 6/4 that she won’t still be home secretary on general election day.
Yes she will.
Party leaders: I put £200 on at 7/4 yesterday that Brown would be the first of Cameron/Clegg/Gord to go.
Yes he will.
General Election timing and winner I’ve got 5/1 on an election before June 30th 2009
No - it will be May 2010
in which the Tories end up with most seats.
Yes
David Blunkett There’s a bet at a very tasty 100/1 that Blunkett will be back at his old job of home secretary a year day
[I presume you mean "a year today"] Ha ha ha no no no ha ha ha
White House race 2012: I’ve got £50 on with Ladbrokes at 200/1 that Jon Huntsman will win
Who she? No. Obama will win again.
Next Labour leader: I’m on Ed Miliband at 33/1; John Reid at 50/1 and Tessa Jowell at 100/1
Er… are you “on” anyone else as well as those three?
The favourites are supposedly Harriet Millipede and David Harperson, but by the time Labour gets into the long cold wilderness of oppopsition in the dim and distant autumn of 2010, I think it’s more likely to be someone like Ed Purnell or James Balls.
I don’t know what the 2009 Predikshun Competition will include, but:
* I predict that Binyamin Netanyahu will defeat Tzipi Livni to become PM of Israel
* I predict SeanT will with the PB of the year competition - even if he doesn’t win the vote, he will launch a military coup against the winner and seize the prize for himself anyway
* I predict that there will be some parliamentary by-elections in 2009
* I predict that the BNP will win 1 seat in the EP, and UKIP will hold about 3
* I predict that “No” will be the answer to 37% of PB threads during 2009 (only 6% will be “Yes” and the other 57% will not be a yes/no question)
* I predict that I will switch off and go to bed in about 5 minutes’ time
re 3. The way betting works is that I can chalk up a profit now on my 200/1 Huntsman bet by laying on Betfair. I think Obama will get a second term but Huntsman could be a strong contender for the GOP nomination - in which case the price will come right down.
A lot of betting is trading going in an out and picking up profits as the prices change. Some of what I’m doing on Betfair I don’t want to reveal here because if others know it will undermine my strategies.
The main bets above are with conventional bookies where this doesn’t matter so much.
Irish referendum?
Mike
Well, Huntsman’s price has dropped dramatically but I would say even the 16/1 PP are offering is still good value. My mole in Utah tells me he has been prominent lately, receiving much good publicity, and is being widely spoken of as a potential GOP candidate. He has a good record as Governor and if the Mormon thing isn’t a bar (I think it is not) he looks a strong candidate.
Much will depend on how Obama goes as president. If he goes well and starts to look a shoo-in (note spelling please everybody), Huntsman’s prospect would improve. Many in the GOP would see him as the perfect sacrifice - credible but expendable. If he doesn’t win, no matter. Jindal can take over for a stronger challenge in 2016.
If however Obama looks beatable, Jindal is the better choice. Nevertheless, your 200/1 looks a corking good bet. My 66/1 isn’t so shabby either.
So, thanks once again Mike, and Happy New Year!
I think we can safely predict that 2008 will be the FTSE’s worst ever year. Opening for only four and half hours today, it will need to gain 990 points or 22.5% to avoid that record.
It is currently down almost 32% on the year. The previous lows were the 24.48% loss recorded in 2002 and the 16.15% loss recorded in 2001.
“and for some reason that must have appeared good at the time …” A comment that long-term betting can produce and is probably familiar to all political punters. I remember rationalising that Newt Gingrich’s odds were good value at some early point in the primary season!
I predict a second Irish rejection of the Lisbon Treaty by referendum. No one likes to be played for a fool so many times and that is what the EU are doing to the Irish.
5. There are though at least two big problems with laying on an exchange a bet made at the bookies: it ties up a lot of money (as the exchange won’t net off the potential winnings against losses on the market), and if one market doesn’t pay out (e.g. gets voided, bookie goes bust etc.), it can leave the punter with a very unbalanced book and probably looking at big losses, as the lay is usually odds-against and often quite heavily so.
This is the main reason that I do the majority of my betting through exchanges, although that will have its own drawbacks, especially for bigger and more successful players.
As for your bets, they all still look healthy except your Labour leadership one. If Brown leads Labour to defeat, that will cast a shadow over all Brownite candidates and I don’t rate Ed Miliband as highly as some others do. Reid had his last chance this year and is too far out of the game now (and doesn’t look to be yearning for a return either), and Jowell was never in it. The political and economic climate is likely to produce a swing to the left if Labour is in opposition for the election. Harman should still be a strong candidate but after that it could be a very open field. Denham should still be in the running if he’s interested as his credit from his Iraq resignation, while diminishing, is still in play. After that, the best signs will be from the speeches at the TUC and Labour conferences.
9 LOL!
We should have a Confessions Corner on PB, David.
My contribution? £50 on that stirring candidate for the US Presidency, Tom Vilsack. Why, I hear you ask? No, I can’t remember either.
8 Until 2009 !
Happy New Year one and all. Seant for PM !
12. Heck - that was ambitious with the field he was up against! The GOP field was at least much more open - anyone remember Sam Brownback? He looked very plausible at one point (2007, admittedly), although 28/1 was probably stingy, even then.
re 12. I like the idea of a confessions thread and might run it.
One of the leading gamblers who post here, David Kendrick, always says that the people who make money gambling always talk about their losers - I think he’s right.
On the other side of the coin, my bet on Darling not being Chancellor expires at midnight. Respect to him for hanging on.
Brown besieged by clones on the previous thread.
Wishing you all a Happy New Year and a special thank you to Mike for this special site.
Bliadhna Mhath Ur dhuibh uile
Marcia & Edmund
re 11. The problem I have with Betfair is often the lack of liquidity on many of the political markets. If I want to bet £100 I want to do it now and quite often that’s not possible for now. I hate leaving bet offers on the board.
Occasionally there will be an opportunity that in my view is a 100% certainty - like Labour losing its deposit at Henley - and I just want to throw as much as I can at it at almost any price.
My main bookies are William Hill, Ladbrokes and PaddyPower - the first two usually let you put reasonable amounts on.
On the Poster of the Year election I have just had a vote from a former quite prominent Labour minister. Obviously I can’t reveal who it is but it is quite interesting.
A Happy New Year to you Mike.
A confessions Corner seems amusing Mike, but then, you are likely as not, get bogus confessions.
I will be in conract with you regarding my small bets with Corpreal and John O, on Jan 3rd.
20 - Obviously Tony Blair voting for SeanT in grateful recognition of the unswerving support for Iraq’s liberation.
I did have a bit of a punt on Gordon being out by end of year and its clearly a loser, but never mind. This year had been a golden one for political betting, largely thanks to the US primary season so losing £30 on him isnt going to hurt.
Incredibly, Wm Hill continue to have Brown available at 7/4 this morning as the first of the three party leaders to leave office. Terrific spot by Noisy Summer as well as being highlighted yesterday by Mike Smithson. One of THE value bets of 2008 IMHO and I have filled my slippers accordingly.
Get on there my son!
re 22. John - it wasn’t Tony Blair. In any case I wouldn’t have believed it if his name was on the email.
25 - Well, you could have knocked me down with a feather with that revelation.
24 Sidney was a bit slow off the mark this morning, but my £150 bet just now has clearly woken him up with Brown’s odds having now shortened from 7/4 to 6/4.
20 Have we been rude about them?!?
28
name a minister or shadow that we haven’t been rude about at some point on here.
Surely membership of the Euro, should be No1 bet, will we or won’t we?
From the Indy.
That tomorrow’s anniversary coincides with a high point of the euro – in many different respects – is a happy coincidence for its early advocates. In strictly economic terms, the thesis may be suspect, but at popular level, the strength of a currency reflects the internationally perceived standing of the nation, or group of nations, that use it – and that this in turn reflects the way the country thinks about itself. After a tentative start, the rise of the euro against the US dollar and the recent sharp devaluation of sterling against both currencies testify to the relative strength of the eurozone economies and the positive light in which the European Union is widely seen.
The present head of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, has steered a steady course through the turbulence of the past year. Fears that competing pressures from different national economies would weaken the euro, perhaps spelling its collapse, have proved unfounded. So far, the reverse has happened, with countries that had shunned the single currency, such as Denmark, reconsidering their position.
Stand by I hear the, ‘Beast of Bodmin Moor’ starting to stir!
The Rest of the Day
I’m off to London to record my predictions for 2009 for Radio 4’s PM programme which goes out tomorrow.
Then it’s to the NT to see David Hare’s play about NuLab fundraising - Gethsemane
So there won’t be much from me.
@30:
I’d suggest that somebody is counting Trichet’s chickens for him.
We’ll see what sort of state the Eurozone is in after we’ve actually survived the credit crunch, and then and only then will we be able to judge.
In practice, the Eurozone is too big to be allowed to fail, though some more troublesome countries could easily be invited to leave if they won’t sort themselves out.
Reading between the lines, it looks like they are still serching for our Great Leader in the wild’s of Devon.
Not content with chewing down trees, finger nail clippings have been found by the tree stumps, some say they were toe clippings, but they have been collected and sent to a local laboratory.
Fancy blaming the damage on a Beaver, we all know who causes all the damage in Britain today.
30 Well, Gordon sold our gold at the bottom of a market of his making, so why shouldn’t he join the Euro on that basis too? Although I thought there was to be the small issue of a referendum on the Euro, Lord Mandeslon….
10 - Sadly, Ireland will be in such a pickle by the time another vote comes that the threats from the EU may well hit harder for the voters. Prepare for some disgusting rubbish about voting no is the reason you’re in this mess. Total nonsense but maybe enough people will believe it to switch the result.
30 - It is a good article but the Euro is about to make the recession in Ireland bigger, steeper, deeper and messier than it would be if they still had the Irish Punt.
I don’t think a shop other than a petrol station within 1 hour of the border has got any customers left…
30-The DKr is semi in the Euro anyhow. It shadows the Euro, as does the SKr I believe.
The Indy has an agenda, and fair play to them for being honest about it.
34-Lukcily the Eurocrats will not elt the £ join at anything like 1:1.
35-The disgusting rubbish will be the “Vote NO and you’re OUT” chorus. No doubt aided by some gobsh!te Spanish and French MEPs.
30. I don’t understand why people think joining the Euro is a good idea. Sterling weakness is good for exports, mixed in overall economic terms (higher import prices). But, as noted with regard to the likes of Ireland and Austria - it wouldnt help them if they get into debt trouble. Indeed, it would make things far worse. What if Iceland had been a member of the Euro? Well, their banks would still have gone bust and the Icelandic government would probably still have had to bail them out and the portion of the debt that was Krona denominated would not have been devalued, so the impact would have been greater. Iceland would effectively have gone into sovereign default, but with a heavier euro denominated debt hanging around it.
The Euro helped to exacerbate the bubbles in the periphery (Spain, Ireland, Greece, Austria), stopped Germany getting lower rates in the early years. It basically shows that one size doesnt fit all. No rational economist thinks that the UK should consider euro entry during this crisis.
Some idiots probably think - “well what if Buiter is right, the banks are really epic bust and the government needs to put up hundreds of billions of pounds, causing a collapse in the gilt market, surely being in the euro would help?” The answer to this is a resounding “NO!”. Being in the Euro in such a situation would mean that the government couldnt inflate (print money) and remove a portion of the debt burden. The currency would have credibility but the government debt wouldnt. The UK economy under those circumstances would find life far more difficult - interest rates would be effectively far too high, set as they are for the average of the whole euro area.
The talk that Denmark or the UK should think about joining is driven by wishful thinking - strong currency = strong economy and not by rationality. Some people look at the Euro and think “wow, less financial instability in places like Germany or France, better run economies”, but this ignores the fact that Germany and France had their problems, the periphery had worse problems and that much of the scale of the financial sector problem is determined by national regulators - the Bank of Spain ruled that SIVs (bank owned entities that borrowed short term to buy long term structured debt and make money on the difference, most regulators decided that there was no risk to this, how wrong they were), were to be consolidated - meaning that banks had to put up capital for this idea and it became unattractive to Spanish banks and thus Spanish banks dodged the US sub-prime catastrophe to a great extent. (So much for it being a “global” problem!)
So, can we lay the Euro joining idea to rest please? Politically I can see that some people will want this debate again - but it wont be economically rational to have it until 2011 onwards, there is still no good case for joining after 2011, in my opinion, but there are counter-arguments that could be made, but in this downturn with the level of uncertainty, membership of the Euro would simply mean surrendering major policy instruments for no good reason.
38 - Yes, I think we agree the tactics will be underhand in the extreme and state-sponsored.
If one of the questions is will Ireland sign Lisbon by the end of 2009, I would be voting yes with a very heavy heart at the coercion that will get them there.
39 “membership of the Euro would simply mean surrendering major policy instruments for no good reason”
No good reason - unless Britain surrendering major policy instruments is a goal in itself? Britain’s spirit finally broken…centuries of free-thinking at an end.
35. No way will Ireland vote No again; the entire EU political class will be mobilised behind a Yes in order to save the project. An Irish yes is one of the safest political bets in 2009.
42, although I sadly concur a Yes is more likely than a No, I don’t subscribe to the theory it’s a foregone conclusion.
Are we more defiant and patriotic now than we were during (to borrow Brown’s would-be theme:p) the Blitz?
When times are hard sometimes people are more, not less, likely to stand up for themselves. Imagine how the Irish may feel if they consider the Yes campaign to be using the recession as propaganda to try and coerce them into a bad decision. A bit like a grieving family being given a hard sell for a ridiculously expensive coffin by an undertaker, perhaps.
Typically ascerbic swipe at the honours system in the Daily Mash. As always, the later lines are the best:
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/knighthood-for-child-who-made-own-bed-every-day-for-a-week-200812311483/
42. I suspect if it looks like NO could prevail, the referendum won’t be held and ‘another means’ to get Lisbon through will be found.
45, the Irish constitution means a referendum is necessary. They can probably sneak some parts through but not the whole thing, otherwise they never would’ve held a referendum in the first place.
39
You assume (actually I am sure you don’t but your question does) that the Euro is an economic project. If that were the case then you would be right and we would be mad to join. But it is not an economic project but a political one and as such many other pressures come to bear. This means that whilst it would indeed be economic madness for us to join the Euro at any stage let alone ina recession, the politicians see only the opportunity to bounce the country in on the back of dire economics.
That said I have to say they is no chance at all of us joining in 2009/2010. If Gordon really wants to lose an election and see his party destroyed then this would be one sure way to go about it.
I still think Ireland will vote no. The extra pressure placed by the Eurofanatics will be offset by the fact that their dire warnings about the EU grinding to a halt and Ireland being ejected as a result of the previous NO proved to be complete garbage.
Added to taht the more they are seen to be being pressured I think the more they will hit back.
Meanwhile, Happy New Year from Die Neue Arbeiter Partei - but plaudits to one of their former allies for showing some resistance to their schemes…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/4032431/Private-firm-to-run-communications-super-database.html
Big Brother Labour presses ahead:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7805610.stm
Go f*** yourselves and your f***ing ID cards, Labour!
46. I wouldn’t place too much weight on constitutional proprieties if I were you - the EU is no respecter of them, and the deeply corrupt Irish political class likewise.
“The tendency of the state to seek ever more powers of surveillance over its citizens may be driven by protective zeal. But the notion of total security is a paranoid fantasy which would destroy everything that makes living worthwhile.”
47. There are economic arguments in favour of a single currency, but I tend towards the belief that it is mainly a political project as well. It should be noted that no rational government in this current economic situation is going to willingly give up the extra flexibility of it’s own currency - this is a non-issue for the duration of the crisis, and might (for mainly political reasons) resurface at a later date.
Morning all.
I got up too late to grab the 7-4 deal on Brown being the first to go. Now 6-4, but still very good value IMO.
Gordon Brown 10% ahead of Mugabe in Iain Dale’s Most Hated Politician of 2008.
Wow - that is some animosity!
http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com/
Having recently been hosted for an afternoon at one of Her Majesty’s Constabularies [sic] (in Sarf’ Lundun’), my prediction for 2009 will be (in accordance to the opinion of staff’s wherein employed)…:
A bad year for anyone named Blair - except Lionel (unless he shuttles-off this mortal coil). Also their “Quick”[?] buddie ain’t gonna’ be there to protect them…!
As for the Euro, it’s over-valued and over-hyped. [Isn't the Indie' owned by a Paddie...?] As for the Irish Frog-marched referendum: their economy is seriously toast, so who can predict how they will vote…?
A strong Euro will deflate Irish expectations, whilst England’s green-and-pleasant-lands will attract more of their talents. Shame we have to share the spoils with Scotland!
[Any news on Stuart Dickenson, Easterross, and Alex-in-Madrid...? Thank God there is the welcome sanity - that is ChrisD - north of Coldstream. Happy Hogmany hon'!
]
And Happy New Year to all P-B-ers…!
Somebody explain please? How can Ireland be ejected from the EU? They are full members and will have broken no rules if they vote “No” in a referendum.Membership is not subject to a majority vote.
re 8 Hmm. I wonder if it’s coincidental that all three of those years were under the benign patronage of the Saviour of the World.
All together now, “No more boom and bust”
re 16 unfortunately I’m on that bet as well. Any drivers of number 11s reading!
Minnesota, boy its close, want to put a bet on this one?
“Democrat Al Franken maintained his slim lead of 50 votes Tuesday in the race for a Minnesota Senate seat.
GOP Sen. Norm Coleman, left, and Democrat Al Franken are in a battle for Minnesota’s Senate seat.
Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie and the state canvassing board allocated the remainder of about 6,000 ballots that had, at one point or another, been challenged by both campaigns.
“If there are any nits to be picked, they’ve been picked,” board member and Minnesota Supreme Court Chief Justice Eric Magnuson said as the board adjourned.
In a statement, Franken said, “As it appears that we’re on track to win, I want Minnesotans to know that I’m ready to get to work for them in Washington on day one.”
Tony Trimble, campaign attorney for Republican incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman, called Franken’s lead “artificial.”
The process is far from over. The battle over which absentee ballots should be included in the mix has the makings of a brutal fight.
As outlined by the state Supreme Court, both campaigns and local election officials
re 49 A Home Office spokesman said: “The communications revolution has been rapid in this country and the way in which we collect communications data needs to change so that law enforcement agencies can maintain their ability to tackle serious crime and terrorism.
Again no explanation why we need this and no other country does. Care to explain Nick P, presumably you’re all gung-ho for it.
“Care to explain Nick P, presumably you’re all gung-ho for it.”
And if you’ve got time to spare, ask Jacqui why she hasn’t had innocent people’s DNA deleted from the database yet.
Perhaps you might remind people who are joyous at the cut in interest rates and any consequentially lower mortgage payments of thisl: “The financial crisis has slashed an average of £60,000 from each family’s wealth over the past year, it has been claimed.
Sliding equity prices and dramatic falls in property values have shaved more than 18 per cent off savings and assets, according to estimates by Capital Economics.
That is the equivalent of an average £60,000 fall in the wealth of every household in the country and adds up to £1.5trillion. The 2008 plunge exceeds an entire year of British economic output.”
From Coffee House on report in the Mail. Rather scary really.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3197671/the-cost-of-the-downturn.thtml
62 And private debt is about 1.3 trillion in the UK so the fall in wealth is greater than the collective indebtedness.
Never mind whether Gordon wil survive until midnight. Will there be a General election before midnight!!??
One of my “inspired” bets about a week before the Glenrothes was to put around £100 on a 2008 election at odds of around 100/1.
I figured that Labour would win the by-election and the odds on a 2008 election would come tumbling and I would be able to lay off and have a very nice free bet reamining.
I got the first part right, but the odds remained stubbornly high.
This is my fave politico site!! HNY to all!
When do we get the results of the Pb.com 2008 forecast competition? Want to see if my useless forecasts oust Roger from bottom spot or not.
64, bad luck:(
It is annoying when thet happens. I had a similar issue, writ small, with Snowdon’s odds for Strictly. Damned BBC meddling.
penny4 “I used to be a heavy gambler. But now I just make mental bets. That’s how I lost my mind : Steve Allen
26- john o- how you didn’t come in as the most amusing poster is a travesty!
20, oooh. Let’s see…. Blunkett, Reid or Clarke seem possible, or even Prescott.
It’s cruel of you to tease us with half a revelation though.
The best quote for this site is probably from W C Fields:
Horse sense is a good judgement which keeps horses from betting on people.
36- I think David you are alluding more to the complete and utter nonsense of the UK failing to join the Euro- the one decision that NuLab could have led on. Poor Ireland are suffering from our monumentally stupid decision not to go in when everyone else did. We will join of course in the future.
72, there’s no ‘of course’ about it.
The yearning desire of lefties to give away monetary policy to foreigners is utterly beyond me.
69 - Alter Ego, I know…I’m still mortified about not being even nominated, barred as usual by the Morus-Smithson-Shagpile Carpet running dog (not the inestimable Trotsky I hasten to add) clique, or should that be claque?
72 Tyson is of course deluded about this. he also ignores that if we had gone in with the levels of personal debt that have been encouraged by Labour over the last 10 years we would be in an even worse position than we are now.
There are no plus points to joining the single currency, only negatives.
74, don’t feel too bad. I didn’t even get a single nomination, just a solitary honourable mention from a certain Ferrari fan
I don’t mind though. I still have my unreasonably large earth-to-space artillery cannon and solar powered death ray. And if I don’t get nominated next time I might just use them…
72 Not if the Conservatives win we wont, thats for sure. In the future could be at any time in the next 100 yrs, in that sense you might be right, but before 2025, no chance.
Imagine what things would be like in we were in the Euro now, Gordo wouldnt be able to trash the currency….
76 - Doubtless both cunningly disguised as a Maypole?
74- john o- I didn’t know you were not even nominated. More rigged than a Glasgee council vote if you ask me.
Poor little Trotsky has lived up to her name after returning from the doggery, certainly on the “trots” side. We are presently starving the little mite and force feeding her water through a syringe. Unfortunately any solid food gets sprayed over the sofa in a less than pleasant form about an hour later.
Bring on that Euro referendum, tyson!
77
Oh I don’t know, Gordo is so inept that his inability to control public spending would probably fracture the whole thing.
Almost a shame we didn’t join just to help wreck the thing.
79
Sorry about Trotsky Tyson. Is that the normal Doggery (I do like that word) you use? Suonds like they need to take a look at their standards.
Another retail administration.
French women’s clothing store chain Morgan has gone into administration, the latest retailer to be hit by the sharp fall in consumer spending.
The company, which expects to report a 9% decline in 2008 sales, said it still hoped to be able to sell the business.
UK private equity group Apax Partners owns 40% of Morgan, while the firm’s founding families - Bismuth and Barouch - own another 40% between them.
Morgan has 575 stores in 57 countries and directly employs 1,000 staff.
It has 33 shops across the UK and Republic of Ireland.
[...]
79 - Probably a little bit more information on that than might be appropriate but I do sincerely feel her and your pain. Have you considered that the dastardly fluffy Tyson may not be entirely innocent on this…..?
75 Quite agree. Until Europe has a common language, allowing free movement of labour (and I hope PBCers would agree that is a BIG project), the common currency is a triumph of political idealism over economic reality.
Ireland is suffering in a lot more ways than the minor inconvenience of cross-border shopping. So too Spain, Italy and Greece are now about to experience real economic pain unless they can escape from the Euro straitjacket.
75. There are positives from joining the euro - for one the price of all trade with the rest of the Euro area would be far more stable, thus allowing for longer term planning - the Euro area is by far the largest trading partner for the UK. There are other arguments covered by Mundell and Lerner in Optimal currency areas.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimum_currency_area
However, it should be noted that the UK joining the Euro would probably be bad for UK economically with the loss of flexibility in monetary policy*. It also requires substantially greater fiscal power to be transferred to a transnational authority. One might favour this for political reasons, but economically it makes little sense. It certainly hasnt for Italy or Greece.
* This used to be a bigger deal in the days when monetary policy was spectacularly badly handled in the UK by governments. Now that it is in the hands of an independent central bank, it isnt clear that credibility would be enhanced any more by losing Sterling. The one point where being part of the Euro would have been positive for the UK would have been if Brown had abided by the macro stability pact and reduced the deficit in 2004-7. In reality the stability pact has had no teeth and is something of a joke.
72/75/77- the Euro has more than accounted for itself in the global crisis. The weakness now of sterling means that our workers are amongst the lowest paid comparatively in the Euro zone, and our currency stands completely exposed for a Soras style attack which will inevitably happen. Long term we will import inflation.
The decision to stay out was based on short term populism, frightened by the numpty little Englanders who dominate the press.
87.
And why is sterling weak?
A weak currency is the sign of a weak economy, which is the sign of a weak government perhaps?
“The decision… was based on short term populism”
Funny, I was thinking the exact same thing about 42-day detention, ID cards and the universal DNA database.
Adam Smith- just back from Italy. Hmmm- kinda disagree with you. If Italy had stayed out of the Euro it would surely have faced currency runs over the last 10 years, and faced dire economic cosnequences.
As it is Italy has had a stable housing market and relatively low personal debt. It’s banking system didn’t need to be nationalised (recapitalised). Fiat is doing OK. It still has quite a strong manufacturing base. And is in a stable currency
The long term structural problems still remain with pensions/ Govt/ corruption- but it looks in alot better shape than we are.
87 - But most of our workers don’t spend Euros so it is not really relevant. The only thing I am giving up next year is a holiday in the Eurozone.
Go to Eniskillen, it’s a boom town and will be as long as the Euro is over-inflated.
90 - Italy is in better shape than we are? You want to try telling Gordon (though I don’t actually believe you anyway).
86. The ’stability’='more trade and investment’ theory receives very scant support from empirical studies, however. The EU has spent a fortune over the last twenty years commissioning research to try to prove this link, but the results have been very disappointing for them.
91 Do you agree with Waller’s piece in Total Politics.
91 Wont you find the pound worth less wherever you go? unless of course you are planning a holiday in Iceland???
89- you forgot the children’s database, and the millions of extra laws, and statutory powers NuLab has created, and is busy creating.
I have long since fallen out of liking for all things NuLab, and cannot abide Gordon Brown’s hamfisted, hubristic, naked, political calculation any second longer.
87. No. It doesnt work that way. Imported inflation will erode earnings a small amount, but the standard of living of UK workers is reduced only a small amount - you confuse the market exchange rate with purchasing power - UK workers remain relatively well-off - holidays in Europe will be more expensive and petrol prices may fall less - but with a falling currency jobs are preserved and the price of many goods and most services remain stable.
Soros and the hedge funds may have shorted Sterling, but no catastrophic fall will occur - for the simple reason that Sterling isnt in a fixed exchange rate, so standard speculative attacks cannot occur.
Most economists would agree with me that the UK is better off outside the eurozone, especially now, but also in the longer term, there are reputable reasons to be pro-euro, but they are less valid now than they used to be, and it isnt the little englanders who are out of touch, but the pro-euro papers like the FT and the Independent.
Does the pb.c competition include a category for the ‘least informed thread’? Because the one on the Euro elections was a beauty…
94 - Link?
83.
“French women’s clothing store chain Morgan has gone…….”
titz up is the technical term.
Going into 2009 I have some quite formidable losing positions.
1.If Ming Campbell makes a comeback and is Party Leader along with Brown and Cameron I am irretrievably sunk !
2.If Labour get an Overall Majority in JUL-DEC 2009 or 2010, I lose.
3.If the Tories get more than 362 Seats in 2010 I lose again but I am working on that.
David Herdson makes some good points about the dangers of betting away from the exchange.Make sure you have your bets with reputable bookies and check their rules in case they are different from Betfair’s.Also betting away from Betfair inevitably entails tying up funds for the duration.
Penny4them you are a dangerous lady ! £100 at 99-1 is what I call a man’s bet !
Good Luck all in 2009.
tyson,
Correct me if I’m wrong, but during the long boom, weren’t the ECB interest rates lower than the UK ones?
Which would have exacerbated our boom.
And now, the ECB rates are higher than ours - which would be worse for us during the bust. Again, not helpful for our economy.
So if we’d gone into the Euro early on, we’d have had lower interest rates to further fuel the boom, and higher ones now to make the bust worse.
78, perhaps. You’ll never know until it’s too late!
86
Except of course that less than 20% of our overall business is with the Eurozone. This means that all the additional costs associated with joining the single currency which would be incurred by all companies and of course by ourselves would only bring benefits (and they are debatable) to less than a fifth of our businesses.
There is also the massive lie that underpins our trade figures with the Eurozone which is the Rotterdam effect. Since much of our exports to the rest of the world travel via Rotterdam as the main container port in Europe, the EU cleverly counts that as trade with the Eurozone. Even though the goods never actually leave the container.
87 The crisis is a long way from over yet Tyson and there is plenty of pain in store for the Eurozone yet. The sad fact for you is that growth in the US has been twice that in the Eurozone in the last 10 years in spite of (or rather because of) the single currency. Rather compensates for the negative growth we are seeing now. And since many of the Eurozone countries are also in recession I hardly think their performance is something to shout about.
Britain’s economic woes are largely down to the moron in Downing Street. Being in the Eurozone would not have changed that and given his stupid policies, would only have made it worse.
If you mean the one on Wales, I really think he’s bang on. I personally think the Swansea area might be a killing ground for hunting Labour and the Tories could win Gower (especially if Labour really concentrate on Swansea West) but it is rare I disagree strongly with Waller.
My most interesting oustanding bets are £25 on a 2010 election at 12/1, £100 on Tories most seats at 3.25 and £170 at 10/1 on Paul Scott Lee to be the next Met commissioner.
I also have £50 at 40/1 on Robinho to be top premier league scorer. Hopeful on that one
105 I think so too. Remember also Labour will be busy fighting off Plaid Cymru in Llanelli nearby. They’ll be pulled from pillar to post and the Trade Union army that they used to call on from mining seats isn’t there any more. Membership of some of those CLPs is in the dozens.
By the way, Brown still availible at 2.5 tobe the first to go, still good value I’d say if you missed out yesterday
90 “As it is Italy has had a stable housing market and relatively low personal debt.”
None of which has anything to do with the Euro. Most European countries have always had a better attitude to debt than the UK and that was the case long before anyone ever knew the word Euro.
You are typical of those eurofanatics who thrash around trying to find any postives what so ever to prove the Euro is a good thing. Most of them are about as viable as the idea that the Euro makes the sun shine in the south of France.
90 Fiat is looking at the possiblity of a sale/partnership for itself as they aren’t sure they can stay wholly independent.
105 Actually I think the whole M4 corridor in Wales is littered with troublespots for Labour.
102. The UK economy is generally much more responsive to interest rate changes than that in the continental EU due to the importance of the housing market here. I’m sure I remember a study in the 90s that showed that there was a greater reaction in the UK to changes in the German interest rate than there was in Germany itself. It’s one of the reasons why Ireland isn’t particularly well suited to the Euro.
83 - whilst visiting friends yesterday we popped into Clacton outlet shopping village. Its not the greatest of places at the best of times and its well over a year since I last saw it, but, I was trully shocked yesterday at the number of empty shops, including a whole section closed off as no tenants for any of the stores in that section.
I understand from our friends that its been going downhill for the last year but recently closures have accelerated.
Most definately does not leave you with a feel good factor
#90, Tyson whilst not as bigoted as your posts have been at Guido’s place, your tolerance of right-and-wrong show a somewhat sheltered existence. [Are you "Pollie's" toy-bot perchance, Italy and-all-that...?]
Italy is - and Italians are - in a crisis at the mo’, threating about the Spanish and - God-forbid - the Greeks overtaking them in GDP (PPP) per-capita. [Owning a Euro don't make you rich.]
As for the Euro, did nay The Economist label the Italian entry into the Euro as the biggest fraud in history…? [Search the web-site, it is in there...!
Enjoy the debate mate. But please don't talk drivel. [That's amply provided by many of us, not excluding me...!
]
102- andy- at any point it will be easy to say yes staying out of the Euro was better for us. Like watching Liverpool Newcastle match the other night- Newcastle scored, and had a couple of half decent chances but got walloped 5-1 by Liverpool.
Joining the Euro was always going to be bigger picture/ long tern stuff, not governed by the minutiae of what is happening this minute. If the UK does not experience a currency run in 2009 I will be astonished- and see then how many people will be hand wringing on the Euro issue.
We will join because at some point our currency will become unviable. But before then many people are going to make alot of cash on the uncertainty of Sterling, and when we join we will be negotiating on our knees, grovelling, with our begging bowl hanging out of our limp hands based on a real position of weakness.
90
And you obviously missed the news that Fiat has shut down all its plants in Italy for the whole of December because of economic problems.
114
Rubbish Tyson. You make these claims but they are based on nothing but your own wishful thinking.
The truth at last!
http://www.adamsmith.org/blog/misc/quote-of-the-year-200812312697/
113- have never posted on Guido’s thread.
Anyway, the Italians love to fret. But they have a stable housing market, realtively strong banking sector/ low personal debt and Fiat isn’t about to be closed. And it still has a manufacturing base.
True hasn’t got got a grip on pensions/ Govt spending/ corruption- but whereas 2/3 years ago it looked like it was going into crisis, now in comparison to the UK it looks better than us. And it suits Italy to be in the Euro.
109. Italy’s average GDP growth since 1991 has been just 1.4% per year. Since it joined the euro in 1999, the average has also been 1.4% per year. The next two years will push that average down somewhat.
The euro has done little or nothing for Italy’s economic performance, which remains the weakest of the major economies.
117, hahahaha. What odds Cameron using that in the next PMQs (assuming Brown turns up)?
I’ve just had an e-mail from the other side indicating that a former Whig Prime Minister has voted for me in the PB Beauty Contest ….
BTW seanT looked fab in evening wear but Davina Herdson a little less so in a swim suit …. all that back hair !! …. SallyC in national costume as Britannia simly stunning !!
Jack W is 105.
117 A great quote - a simple sentence that has so many layers of meaning.
120 Would be nice to watch Gordon turn purple, but I suspect it won’t happen.
118
Again, not a single thing you list there has anything to do with Euro membership…. except of course corruption as we know that the EU and Italy seem to vie to outdo each other on that score.
119-I agree Italy has been the sick man of the Euro for the last 10 years, but now it better comparative shape to others. That is all I am trying to say.
Tyson, mate.
Sterling’s price at the close of this year.
This is a betting site. Fancy a go at For-Ex spreads…?
[If I could afford a holiday, I'd take you on (financially)...!
]
118. Actually Italy is looking very bad. The premium on Italian government debt grows. Their competitiveness has eroded as they havent come to terms with a stable currency and Italian light industry has taken some nasty knocks.
Just look at GDP in PPS for Italy and the UK (you can see how the UK now looks worse, but Italy has had a bad run for the past decade.)
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page?_pageid=1996,39140985&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL&screen=detailref&language=en&product=REF_TB_national_accounts&root=REF_TB_national_accounts/t_na/t_nama/t_nama_gdp/tsieb010
Or the real GDP growth rate
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page?_pageid=1996,39140985&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL&screen=detailref&language=en&product=REF_TB_national_accounts&root=REF_TB_national_accounts/t_na/t_nama/t_nama_gdp/tsieb020
The stability of the Italian housing market has nothing to do with the Euro and everything to do with the relative popularity of bricks and mortar in the UK. Also their banking sector is in trouble, it’s just that they havent admitted to it - the Italians own a big chunk of Austrian banking who did a lot of lending to Hungary. It’s been fudged, but the Italians have managed to do a fair amount of damage to their banking system. The Euro papers over the cracks, but didnt prevent bad regulation and wont save them from a fiscal crisis if things go horribly wrong. Italy is on my list of potential victims in the next round of the banking crisis - although lower down than Ireland, the Baltics, Hungary, Austria.
Rumour circulating that WH Smith in trouble… don’t believe it, but it is a concern. Especially since my children got some vouchers for Christmas and would like to spend them.
Wishing you a happy new year. I would ask for it to be prosperous, but you cannot have everything. I am even charitable to extend my wishes to MP for Peterborough.
And thanks Mike!
#127, hum!
Have been away a while. Such fore-sight should have garnered my vote. Sorry…!
128 SBS
I wish you a particularly happy and successful New Year.
@128:
Can anyone explain how and why WHSmith are still in business?
It makes no sense to me.
The Stock Market having closed for the year, it’s confirmed that in his first full year as Prime Minister, Gordon Brown has overseen the largest fall in the history of the FTSE 100.
Suspect that won’t be on his CV…
121 So that’s one bona fide vote you have then, Jack? Congratulations. One more than you managed in the previous comp.
128, sure that was raised here by one of the clever chaps, perhaps Ken.
132 The actual fall in the FTSE 100 during 2008 is 31.3%.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7805008.stm
Pity anyone retiring in 2009.
132
So after his last few months as the herald of all things financial, where on earth is Gabble to trumpet this latest Brown triumph?
131 - It’s the middle class Woolworths. What is it for exactly?
There’s a decent thread on Betfair Politics (a rarity) on which retailers will be next to go.
125. It’s hard to see on what objective measure you can argue that. Italy’s economy has shrunk in three of the last four quarters. Industrial output is more than 6% lower than a year ago, industrial orders more than 12% lower. All these figures are at the weaker end of the scale of performance of the major economies.
135.
Pity anyone retiring in 2009.”
unless his name is GideO.
138.
Presumably when it’s stock has fallen a bit more, Italy will be bought by the pensions funds of the Rich People’s Republic of China?
133 PtP. Sour grapes old pip !! …. especially as Davina Herdson has now inherited the PB store of glam frocks !!
Eff-it, but off-topic…:
Why has Anthony Blair yet to receive an honour…? [And I don't mean a 0.50" FMG from an AS-50.]
Is there something that we should be aware of…? [Moderated]
128.134. Not me. Just looked at the share price and it isnt suggesting that WHS is in trouble and they dont have much debt. It’s a pretty small firm - sales around the 1.3billion mark, market cap of 564 million, assets of 488 million, bank debts of 25 million. Its market niche isnt terribly clear, but relative to other retailers it doesnt appear that vulnerable.
Can I point out that spreading rumours about impending bankruptcies is a bad idea - in the US the SEC has pretty firm views about this sort of thing. Well, spreading rumours where they can be seen by the authorities is a bad thing. Obviously when it is already in the news - GM, Chrysler - we need not worry, but when it is not already in the public realm, some caution is called for.
141 He will never look the same as me in them, Jack!
109: As a general rule, a statement that one side of a controversy has no arguments whatsoever in favour is almost guaranteed to be wrong. So it is with the Euro. All currency unions, including sterling (i.e. the fact that we don’t let depressed areas have their own currency so they can compete better), are a trade-off between convenience and stability on one side and flexibility and local control on the other. With respect, it’s silly to argue that this doesn’t apply to the Euro too.
That said, I don’t think that UK membership is going to come up for serious debate any time soon. For one thing, public opinion remains firmly opposed. For another, it’d be a major distraction in the middle of an economic crisis to change the currency as well. People who used to say the Euro was going to be a disaster (the Sun called it the toilet currency because its value was so low) have been proved wrong, but that doesn’t make it a good idea to suddenly rush in.
144 PtP. A sad sad day when one gets passed over for a younger number !!
Jack W is 105.
Laters ……
146 LOL! Oh, how you would know, Jack….
145.
“the Sun called it the toilet currency”"
presumably it’s what they used to pay their own journos then?
121. That photo was meant to be restricted!
145
As you may have gathered from the subsequent discussion Nick the aim of making statements like my original one is to draw out all the fatuous and false arguments from people like Tyson and the other Eurofanatics and then shoot them down. It avoids the accusations of straw man techniques and allows the Europhiles to provide the rope with which to hang themselves.
So I continue to look forward to the Euromorons making their claims about the single currency and the general benefits of EU membership at which point we can all highlight how stupid and wrong they are.
OK.. time to give everyone a good laugh at my expense!!
My betting tip for 2009.
Buy sterling, sell euro’s.
I predict that that the £ will hit 1.25 euro, possibly 1.30 euro at some stage in 2009!
And all talk of us joining the Euro will evaporate into thin air.
151. It certainly looks like the interest rate gap will be closing up pretty soon…
145
TO asnwer your specific about stability. That is only a good thing in a currency if all the other aspects of your economy are equally stable and equally unified. If this is not the case then having a ’stable’ currency is rather like carrying a large boulder when you go swimming.
JohnLoony from previous thread: “S&S: Is it 69,456,884? Or 59,934,813?”
No, but to paraphrase Sherlock Holmes, ‘once you have eliminated all other choices, the remaining choice, no matter how improbable, must be the correct one.’
135 - “Pity anyone retiring in 2009″
Anyone retiring in 2009 would have probably progressively moved out of shares in the past couple of years as most funds do because of just this risk. It is people retiring in 2011/12 who you want to worry more about.
149 Tut, tut, David.
You should know that any photo that falls into the hands of the police will shortly be circulating on the internet.
Happy New Year to everyone.
153. And this has been one of the problems for Italy. Relatively high wage growth and relatively weak productivity growth over the last decade has meant Italy has steadily lost competitiveness against Germany and France, and has been unable to correct this via the traditional approach of allowing the currency to weaken.
The euro’s surge against the dollar in 2007 and early 2008 only made things worse. Hence the Italian economy began to shrink earlier than most of the other Eurozone economies, as long ago as the final quarter of 2007.
36. I can guarantee that, theres been huge cross border trade this year a lot of it for standard items, booze, food etc. Some southern puinters have been coming up to Belfast.
Ther have already been some rumblings from politicians in the South that going North to buy your fish fingers and vodka is ‘unpatriotic’. As you can imagine Patrick and Patricia Average couldnt give a stuff.
Will the rest of the World have election’s, but not the UK?
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3198186/2009-an-election-year.thtml
I am still forcasting a May GE.
Has anyone seen this?
Tony Blairs quote from a lecture given to Yale University this year.
The Adam Smith institute are flagging it as their quote of the year.
http://www.adamsmith.org/blog/misc/quote-of-the-year-200812312697/
It is true that we had ten years of record growth when I was prime minister. I have, unfortunately, come to the conclusion that it was luck.
Could be dynamite at the next PMQs
131 and 137: My wife and I have a game at the moment ‘Guess who is going under in 2009′. WHSmith is on her list along with House of Fraser. Debenhams is on mine, though I fancy that will go tail of of 2009. Iceland and Hamleys are on both our lists too (basically anything owned by Bagur).
The best growth industry at the mo, Insolvency practictioners
Brilliant idea to invite lurkers to vote in the final round of the 2008 PBer of the Year contest and to leave their comments.
Unfortunately they may have already been dissuaded from doing so by this earlier :
“Do not write any body text in your email because these will not be opened.”
“Caroline Kennedy Would Fit Perfectly In the Senate” - John Stossel, RCP
“But, of course, so is virtually everyone else.”
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/12/caroline_kennedy.html
Don’t read this article; it’s dirty junk.
164- I did read it, and it’s pretty funny!
In other news, Congressman Bobby Rush is today evoking the very same image I suggested yesterday, of the all-white Senate Democratic caucus standing with their arms folded at the gates of the Senate, telling the black man Burris from Illinois to scram. Rush said: “there can be situations where schoolchildren, where you had officials standing in the doorway of schoolchildren. I’m talking about Orville Faubus back in 1957 in Little Rock, Arkansas. I’m talking about George Wallace. Bull Connors[sic]. And I’m sure that the U.S. Senate don’t want to see themselves placed in the same position.”
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/mark-finkelstein/2008/12/31/bobby-rush-blasts-bull-connor-democrats
Maybe we could put this in less racially charged terms to make everybody happier. How about the heroic Gandalf Reid striking the ground in front of the Senate gates with his mighty staff, staring the evil Balrog Burris in the eyes and roaring “You Shall Not Pass!”
That was written in the sky by S&S yesterday, wasn’t it?:
…Rep. Bobby Rush compared Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s refusal to seat Roland Burris with the actions of leading segregationists from decades past…
http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/1208/Rush_compares_Senate_Democrats_to_segregationists.html
Wow, PB is dead today. Everybody must be at Martin Day’s place already getting plastered.
165 - l must be in a humourless, serious mood this morning — for things suddenly don’t look so good for my bet on sad clown Al Franken :
Franken May Be Ceding Ground on Absentee Ballots :
“… quite a high percentage of absentee ballots were rejected — 60 out of what had been reported yesterday to be 161 ballots under consideration in St. Louis County, or 37 percent. All but one of those objections were made by the Coleman campaign.
…the Coleman campaign is getting away with blocking ballots for asinine reasons.
the process that the Minnesota Supreme Court set up essentially gives either campaign a unilateral veto on any ballot they do not want counted.
….The Franken campaign could … move to reject a high percentage of absentees in red counties. Perhaps they have been doing that; … we really don’t know.
For the time being, however, they seem inclined to play it cool and maintain the moral highground…”
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/12/franken-may-be-ceding-ground-on.html#comments
Gosh, I want evil Franken too play it as bad as he can. Maybe Blago can advise him about some tricks…
166 Currently three Kennedy’s and three black Americans have served in the US Senate since end of Re-Construction - surely its only fair that Caroline be appointed if Burris is so that score remains even.
120. Gordon’s Response: I make my own luck, and while I was at the treasury I made Tony’s as well.
154. What was the question?
Kennedys not Kennedy’s…aaargh
Got to go to prepare for tonight’s festivities…
Happy New Ear to All, and may your bets be bold and wise, and your winnings monstrous!
162 - like the idea of guess which company is going under in 2009. Excellent party game. Bit like the New Year’s Eve game of predicting famous celebrities etc to die during the coming year. I remember predicting unsuccessfully the Queen Mum and Liam Gallagher year after year.
169- I hope they both make it in. They would certainly make politics more interesting and entertaining for the next few years, whether this entertainer happens to be among them or not:
http://www.geocities.com/perry_peterson_1999/franken4.jpg
Happy New Year to one and all - have a look at my blog for further thoughts: http://richardwillisuk.wordpress.com
I’ve never understood this wishing people a “Happy New Year” before it’s happened. Surely the only people doing that at the moment should be our Australian, New Zealand or even Japaanese readers.
170- From several threads ago: “Guess what number I’m thinking of. I’ll give you a hint. It has eight digits.”
It was inspired by a fairly uneventful news day.
177. 8?
167 S&S - be warned, hell hath no fury like a bygone Day. He will return to wreak his vengeance upon you (won’t you Martin?).
173. SBS: like the idea of guess which company is going under in 2009. Excellent party game.
BHS? (As punishment for their silly branding as “Bhs”.)
177
01/01/2009?
178- You’re only off by 88,975,055. Oh wait, did I give it away?
29.”name a minister or shadow that we haven’t been rude about at some point on here. ”
Well Richard, I suspect it won’t be a long list!
Would love to have a wee punt on the mystery former prominent Minister, think I would be in with a shout.
Wishing everyone here at PB.com a Happy New Year, and for those that bet, a very profitable 2009. Thanks once again to Mike, Robert, Double Carpet and Morus for making this such a great site.
ChristinaD and Fitaloon.
(Off to spend New Year in the Highlands, taking lots of winter woolies and some nice malt whisky as its absolutely freezing.)
http://www.kunstler.com/Mags_Forecast2009.html
Worth reading what he predicted for 2007 and 2008 too…
And a good 2009 to one and all especially all connected with Arsenal Football Club.
183 - “ChristinaD and Fitaloon”
Do you two know each other in real life? Did you meet through the site? Am I the only person previously unaware of this?
165 — Amazing suggestion.
To be effective, though, Gandalf might have to cut hair and wear a suit with a tie; otherwise, Blago might take him for a wasted hippie.
185 - EVERYONE here knows they are man and wife!! Or should that be tattie and neap?
DUP bribery (essentially) confirmed
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/dec/31/42-days
182. 88,976,063?
Off topic: Social science and psychology continue to undermine the rightwing neo-liberalist vision of an atomised, uncaring, individualistic society:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20126881.600-how-your-friends-friends-can-affect-your-mood.html?full=true
re 185 they made reference to it a few days ago - that’s was the first I noticed.
185-I didn’t know!
189. G: rightwing neo-liberalist vision of an atomised, uncaring, individualistic society
Eh?
189- Congratulations! Thank you for playing. Everybody had better find something to talk about here lest these contests threaten to become a recurring phenomenon.
Not sure if this has been posted yet. it’s Nate Silver on the strategies available to Harry Reid and the democratic caucus;
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/12/reid-has-few-ways-to-block-burris.html
189
Social Science - an oxymoron if ever I heard one.
192. “There’s no such thing as society”
I know Thatcher didn’t actually say that in the way people pretend, but that’s the attitude I’m talking about. It’s becoming increasingly clear that man is a social animal, naturally altruistic and compassionate.
On another note; has Nick Clegg commented on this story yet? http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2008/dec/31/privacy-civil-liberties
195 — It’s not Art, not Philosophy, yet a lot of retarded young adults and childish seniors are paid to teach it at University — so it must be Science!
189. Probably that or -88,975,047.
185.Morus, married for nearly 20 years, and yes a bit like tatties and neaps JohnO.
Both Tories, but that tends to be where the political allegiance ends, very different views about the future of Scotland.
195.I agree, it’s clearly not a true science. But that’s what it’s called. How else would you classify economics, psychology etc?
My main prediction for 2009 : Hillary will be proved to be have been right about Barack Obama.
“The sky will open, the light will come down, and celestial choirs will be singing”…
199 - How lovely! Any other married/involved PBers I should know about?
194 - G, I hadn’t seen that, but this is my take on how Reid can refuse to seat Burris without the Supreme Court intervening
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/12/31/94551/039/734/678640
Was this story ever discussed here?
“In no particular order, an audit of 2008 must begin with the comments of Mark Thompson, director-general of the BBC, who announced in October that Islam deserved different coverage in the media compared to other religions because Muslims were an ethnic minority… It is deeply troubling that in response to claims by British comedian Ben Elton that the BBC would “let vicar gags pass but not imam gags”, Thompson said that it did take a different approach to Islam.”
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/12/will_2009_be_another_bad_year.html
If this official acceptance and even embrace of the virtues of stifling speech continues, 2009 and beyond doesn’t look good for PB as we know it today.
Can anyone comment on what business is like in their town. Yesterday I was in the post office there was noone in there and consequently no queue. That in itself was amazing, the town was very quiet, Today I went into the outskirts of town, masses of car park spaces available. Has everyone stopped spending completely?
202. That’s a smart take on the issue. I agree it would be messy as hell and for that reason I don’t think Reid will go down that route.
By the way, I know you work in consultancy but what is it you do? Is it connected to your interest in politics?
197/200
I wish I didn’t have to keep explaining this to people. Just because it isn’t anything else you can’t just call it science.
For something to be science it has to follow a set of basic principles known as the scientific method.
http://teacher.pas.rochester.edu/phy_labs/appendixe/appendixe.html
If you can’t apply this system to what you are doing then it is not science.
189 - G. Very good article. Good to see something on psychology that explains things quite clearly.
As you say in your post at 192 “It’s becoming increasingly clear that man is a social animal, naturally altruistic and compassionate.”
Absolutely - which is why both full-on capitalism and full-on socialism are crap. You can’t put the lid on man’s better feelings like they both try do (in different ways).
206. I wasn’t calling it science I was calling it social science because that is the name in popular usage and it means you and everyone else know what I’m talking about. Do you have another better way of doing that?
202- As I read your article, Morus, you’re saying that the Senate need merely assert that it’s questioning the validity of the return in order to sideline the Supreme Court. I don’t think it’s quite that easy. The Senate would need to be acting in accordance with its constitutional authority IN REALITY, not merely asserting that it was acting in accordance with its authority. Otherwise, there is no real limitation to the Senate’s power to bar new members from taking their seats, which goes entirely against the ruling in Powell vs. McCormack.
There is no such thing as an ontological human nature.
Ok, I’m off now. “For real” — as a black boy would say.
Right, enough time in the office. Happy New Year one and all; don’t stay up too late on here…
189. How old are you? 12?
205 - Not really.
I work as a Management/IT Consultant in our Supply Chain practice (SCM Strategy, Forecasting, Logistics, Warehousing, and Procurement) because that was my industry background (albeit brefly).
I’ve just effectively ended my career prospects by insisting on becoming 0% chargeable to work on Government Procurement (Central mostly, but bits of Local Gvt and NHS), which is as political as my job gets (getting into stuff like doing NAO report fieldwork, or looking at the OGC).
Until this month, all my work was private sector, especially FMCG/Pharma and Private Equity. Most of our Procurement practice stick with private sector, because the fees and margins are better, the clients are easier to work with, and the sales process is much much quicker. Public Sector procurement is a diverse and strange animal, but having a good undertanding of politics and government really gives you a headstart.
My argument is not with you for using the term but with those who coined it in the first place. As I said, it is an oxymoron and is designed solely to give gravitas to what would otherwise be regarded as unfounded and unprovable social theory.
I don’t disagree with the concept that man is an inately compassionate creature but then again of course that is because I and almost all of those people who study these things in western society live in an environment where people have an opportunity to behave in that way.
Whilst I would like to think it is true that people are fundamentally decent I am not sure they would reach the same conclusions if they lived in Rwanda.
But none of this is provable in aa scientific manner and as such the use of the term is intentionally misleading.
290 - But the converse of that is that if the Supreme Court gets to judge whether the issue is really about Returns/Elections/Qualifications they are essentially passing judgement on the validity of a Senate vote about those things.
I appreciate the problem of giving the Senate unfettered decision-making by claiming they are voting on one of the three issues in scope, but the other path means that the Supreme Court itself would be contravening Article I Section 5, and I think they would be very nervous about doing so.
The dilemma is “The Constitution is Supreme. The Supreme Court tends to be able to overrule all else by interpreting the Constitution. But in this one area, the Constitution makes clear that the Senate shall be the ultimate decision-maker. How can the Supreme Court even question that Senate decision without breaching the Constitution?”
213. Thanks. I’ve been thinking of looking into consultancy as a possible post-uni career, but I’m mostly interested in doing something connected to politics.
216.
“I’m mostly interested in doing something connected to politics”
Fraud or armed robbery?
199. ChristinaD
Sorry, despite knowing you were married to Fitaloon, amidst all the Doric links a few weeks ago I completely missed the relevance of the name until today. Doh!
216 - If you’re thinking about consultancy at all (and I think you should at least consider it) get in touch with me before you apply. I’ve recently been guiding a lot of mates through the process of choosing and applying to consultancies, as it is remarkably opaque from the outside. There are a million things I should have known before I applied, but didn’t.
Drop me an e-mail if you’re thinking in that direction.
morus1516 [AT] hotmail [DOT] com
215- I’m going to quote your article, Morus for purposes of illustration: “The SoS’ signature is not required… However, by not signing, he introduces the question as to the validity of the Return [how is a question of validity of the return introduced if no signature is required?].
Essentially:
Burris is Qualified (old enough, American, resident, not a traitor)
Burris was not Elected, he was appointed, so there can have been no irregularity in his election.
However, any unorthodoxy in the Return allows the Senate to deliberate as the ultimate authority.”
Again, how is there “no irregularity” or other problem with the constitutional requirements for being seated, yet there is an “unorthodoxy” arising from the absence of a signature that, as you state, is not required? If the Senate shoots Burris down based on this argument, the Supreme Court would be well within its power to say that the Senate is acting extraconstitutionally by a de facto introduction of requirements for membership that are not to be found anywhere in the constitution.
204 I was in Truro yesterday - and it was a madhouse! Took twenty minutes to find a parking space. That said, the only people with lots of bags were the Fulham F*ckers (as we affectionately call them in our household) in M&S Food, stocking up for their New Year’s Eve bashes in their rented cottages. Will they be back next year?
Otherwise, the biggest show in town was the nostalgia tour of the closing Woolies.
There was one young lass who looked to be on the verge of tears. Her shop was empty. How long before she joins the other stores which are closing down or already gone, I wondered. It looked like she was mulling the very same thing.
219. Thanks Morus, I’ve got no real clue at the moment. It’s just one of many vague ideas, I’ll try to drop you an e-mail some time in the New Year.
202 Morus - I’ve at last persuaded my beloved to join the PB community, or to be more precise I press-ganged her into doing so by supporting my unsuccessful nomination as “Best Betting Tipster of 2008″. She used her own computer, so hopefully neither of us will face the same fate as was meted out to Martin Day earlier this week. Btw, her moniker is “‘eroopnorth” and she’s a feisty, fully paid-up Tory.
222, hmm, she sounds like quite a catch. Maybe I’ll steal her away from you with my morris dancing seductive powers
Incidentally, what happened to Martin Day? Was he outed as chairman of the Neil Kinnock Appreciation Society?
223- What did Martin Day do?
224
Compared Nick Clegg with Neil Kinnock
(In memorium)
224 Fraudulent voting.
He’s been excommunicated.
222 - Hurrah! Though I would have thought that a radical lady of the ultra-Left would be more your style! FWIW, you had my support as soon as you posted the Kipper Tie joke…
222 PfP - That’s brilliant news! Many congratulations, and give her a welcome hug from me.
(Tell her my tips are better than yours too - it’s not true, but she’ll probably believe it!)
226, really?
’tis a shame. Is his excommunication permanent, or temporary?
224/226 I should add that in my view Martin got off light. He could have been sent to ConHome, the fate of the worst offenders.
225 Compared Nick Clegg with Neil Kinnock
(ad nauseum)
195 - It will surprise you to find I totaly agree with you. Utter bollocks
226
Free Martin Day.
El Presidente of PB.com could offer a presidential new yrs pardon :d
229 - He is serving time at
Her Majesty’sOur Genial Host’s pleasure.I think we’ll see him back at some point
229 a week
213 - I just applied for a job at the OGC, not expecting to get it but ho hum
234, he can count himself lucky. If Mike were Gordon he’d be held for at least six weeks.
Sorry let me get rid of that crappy signature now it has served its purpose
230 He appears to have been exiled to Iain Dale’s site a fate worse than Conhome IMHO .
233 Any views on Waller in Total Politics.
235 and without charge too.
224 Re paste - “249 Yes but consider the state’s differences. NJ is right in the hardest Democraic belt of states. It is also basically the same media market as NY. Illinois OTOH is not quite S & G by GOP standards it is next to semi!/reliably GOP states has semi/regularly voted in GOP candidates at every level (Blag was the first Democrat Governor since the 70’s). Also even in 2008 despite being Obama’s home electoral state it was not the banner state for the Democrats that tag going to Hawaii. So I’d say you can’t compare the two can you.”
236 see 107 and 110.
228 Thanks PtP - I did what you said and she’s now lying motionless on the floor. Remind me, does that make you an accessory before or after the event?
What Martin Day did was not fraudulent; he simply indulged in some “creativity”. No worse than some who have today received gongs for doing just that….
I’d be all for giving him a pardon - coupled with adding “Kinnock” to the verboten list! Tha would clip his wings…
227- Vote fraud in a PB election? That’s pretty embarrassing. I don’t think he’ll live that one down for a while.
242
I find Martin brightens up PB even if he is on a one man mission
241 Guilty on both counts, PfP.
Maybe we could all pledge to take over the burden of once a day repeating his favourite mantra (I won’t repeat it here as I have already used it today) just so he doesn’t take all the flak for his perceptive comparisons.
244 I agree MTF, but there was no doubt about his guilt. I understand he confessed.
Perhaps we can go visit him?
232.
“Free Martin Day.”
You are competing with Rice Krispies packets.
243 Erm…I understand one or two other suspects were questioned, S&S, but no charges have ensued.
Nuff said.
247
but IIRC he was professing his innocence.
I dont think so. He found another IP address that Mike promptly banned
I am surprised he hasnt been down to the library and posted under an assumed name.. but then again perhaps thats what he did !
244.
“he is on a one man mission ”
you’re missing out his ‘e’! But it takes allsorts.
241- I’d say that NJ and IL are pretty comparable today in terms of how solidly Democratic they are (and in how crooked they are, too). Illinois has swung quite a bit to the left over the last ten or so years, while New Jersey has pretty much stayed where it is politically over that same period. That puts them in pretty much the same position today: both willing to vote for a GOP governor once in a while but both very unlikely to vote for GOP state legislatures or GOP U.S. Senators, unless the GOP is very lucky AND the Dems are having a bad year nationally and/or within the state.
248- PtP, was Martin forced to listen to Nick Clegg speeches until he admitted his crime?
253, could be worse. Alistair Darling’s Budget would’ve made him crack after about 20 mins. Then again, I believe playing that to prisoners contravenes the Geneva Convention.
250 Hey, maybe he’s here now! Maybe this is the time for a healthy bit of paranoia.
Are you Martin Day?
Its like ‘The Thing’. Who knows who is really as they seem and who is actually the strange tentacled beast.
“I don’t know what it is but its weird and its p***ed off!”
253 S&S “..was Martin forced to listen to Nick Clegg speeches until he admitted his crime?”
No. That would be in contravention of the Human Rights Act, The Geneva Convention, Magna Carta and The Laws of Common Decency.
252 Are you quite sure? Illinois is hardly ‘once in a while’ for Governor. I was stunned that Blagojevich was the first Democratic Governor since the 1970’s. I’d also be surprised if NY had GOP Senatoras as often either.
203 (Stars and Stripes) And how about this story?
On 26th January 2006, the BBC held an event described in a report it published the following year as a ‘high-level seminar with some of the best scientific experts’ on climate change”. The report used the seminar to illustrate the care with which the impartiality of the corporation’s news and current affairs coverage of this very important subject has been safeguarded. However, a participant, referring to the experts present, reports that “almost all (and maybe all) … could be said to have come from the “we must support Kyoto” school of climate change activists”.
ccgi.newbery1.plus.com/blog/?p=142
Perhaps not the best way to safeguard impartiality.
MODERATED
249 - you would have had an extra vote but as I had voted already, Edmund’s vote was blocked. ‘You have already voted’ came up.
258- It’s a bit tricky trying to judge the political inclinations of a state by looking at who it elects as governor. For example, did you know that Massachusetts had sixteen straight years of GOP governors until Deval Patrick was elected in 2006? Also, Rhode Island has had GOP governors since 1994 (that’s four consecutive terms). On the other hand, Georgia had NEVER elected a GOP governor post-reconstruction until the current governor, Sonny Perdue, was elected there in 2002.
242 I’m with MM in granting Martin a pardon - it would be a nice New Year’s gesture. How about it Mike?
Tyson,
Italian banks. Unicredit is down 70% this year, roughly the same as Barclays, although better than RBS (down 85% this year) and Intesa is only down 50% this year. And the Italian banks are getting quite large capital injections, albeit not on the same scale as the UK -
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/11/21/18511/state-bail-out-looms-for-italian-banks/
262.Yes.Let’s have a swift pardon for someone who advocated that all emigrants who had been here for less than 50 years should be deported.
Good old boys seem to stick together.
The need to be seen to appear as a good old boy obviously has to take precedence over the need to express human values.
Innit ?
Or ‘immigrants’ even !
Does the Blunkett bet require him to be still in office at the end of the year? Risky one that. Could be in and out before that
242 - You pathetic, woolly, bleeding heart liberal, MM.
We need to be tough on Martin Day and tough on the causes of Martin Day.
170: great snappy retort, G - we need you in the speech-writing department…or in Parliament.
Happy new year everyone. Assuming he continues his reign, I leave you with a synopsis of Gordo’s control over the economy:
http://orangebyname.blogspot.com/2008/12/gordo-deliver-us-into-2009.html
See y’all next year.
266 “You pathetic, woolly, bleeding heart liberal, MM”
That’s a first!
267. And totally untrue. Gordon lucked out but is too stupid or deluded to understand that it was all luck. Tony shows he is smarter than Gord once again.
Nick Palmer a good line in theory but your leader couldn’t deliver the line without mangling it into something about the pheasant plucker, could he?
PfP- Y
You are one of a triple handful of posters who keep me returning to what I described elsewhere as ‘a delicately perfumed sewer.’
Here is the strange bit. I think poll-rigging is a praiseworthy activity in itself because as an activity it increases scepticicism.
Me, I thought Martin Day’s pronouncements disgusting but also took note of the fact that he apologised afterwards.So really no great ill-will towards him.
I have no time at all for his apologists.
267 Good response yes - shame his ability to make his luck vanished as soon as Blair went.
Have a happy New Year’s Eve, one and all, and if you drive drunk, be sure to do so responsibly.
261 Peter from Putney I hope you have found another nice pub after your horror story of paying £4.05 for a pint-I felt and shred your pain- £3 or just over I would tolerate in Putney,but £4.05..
Happy New Year one and all!!
Oh,one more thing to get off my chest-
FREEDOM FOR MARTIN DAY!!!!
Richard Tyndall- thanks for your concern about Trotsky earlier. Missed it in the Euro stuff.
And John O- I think Tyson was once guilty of trying to poison young Trotsky with a box of aspirin extra knocked onto the floor. Maybe he has found a new strategy.
Wishing everyone here a very happy New Year, and a peaceful and recession proof 2009.
Thanks Mike for running such an enjoyable site.
250
Even though I am not a fan of the Lib Dems, I am not repeat not Martin Day
or am I? 
I am a long time lurker and this is my first post!
I just want to say I think Gordon Brown has left this country best placed to weather the recession and no doubt when the job losses do not appear. Many negative, nasty Tory posters will look humbled.
Just released some posts, so numbering will be a bit skewed.
279
What tablets are you taking Thunderer. Or more to the point, why havent you been taking yours
Afternoon all
Happy New Year from me and of course Mrs Stodge. My jovial mood was ruined when I renewed my monthly Travelcard today. From Friday, said card will go up by 6.7%, well above even the Daily Mail’s rate of inflation.
Thanks very much, Boris !! You’ve really earned your British Numpty of the Year award.
http://aloadofoldstodge.blogspot.com/2008/12/its-awards-night.html
This Martin Day sounds very misguided, surely he must be banned for ever?
283 - Thanks for that, I really hope I have egg on my face, sincerely. However, I don’t think I will
284
Morus can you release all Martin’s and free him please, in the sprit of New Year’s harmony…
283. Lol - the last draperbot of the old year!
283 - Welcome to the wonderful world of posting, Thunderer. I hope your optimism proves justified.
213 - What OGC job?
290 - Can we please give new posters a chance before accusing them of things?
283
LOL
I do hope you stick around. Not just because it is good to see new blood and not even because we all need a good laugh but mostly because it will be good to see you eat those words next year even though the circumstances that will inevitably have led to that will be dire. We will need something to look forward to once Gordon’s masterplan has well and truely failed.
285. I was being jocular!
This country is not well placed for the recession and public spending projects are a drop in the ocean!
294 so was I !
292
If as he claims he is a lurker then he will know full well what reaction his posting will elicit. Why should we disappoint?
We are after all creatures of Pavlov.
283. Welcome Thunderer and if you truly believe that, I hope you continue to post and that you have a thick skin.
Most posters on here would have celebrated if you had stopped your second paragraph after the thirteenth word!
296. You assume I am male but I have big breasts and a hole instead of a thingy!
299. “Thunderess”?
300. Yes - Think Caroline Flint! That’s what I look like!
301, thanks for that, I now have to take the image of a dark haired woman covered in blackheads out with me this evening.
301 You poor lad/laddess
MODERATED
299
You are Martin Day and I claim my £1000!!!
Talking of going out this evening, I’m off out to my New Year’s Eve bash.
Happy new year to all at PB.com, and I’ll talk with you next year!
Happy New Year guys.
I am concentrating on getting though to Friday when I finally escape and come home for Christmas. I think this year I will pretend to be Eastern Orthodox and celebrate on 7th January.
305. This Martin Day sounds to imbue fear into opponents and joy into others in equal measure.
Sounds like a ruthless and calculating person – Is he Peter Mandelson in a Devil’s advocate role?
20. Spoilsport! Why bother telling us at all then if it’s a secret? Bah humbug.
301, 302, 303: ah, Caroline Flint! That’s set me off now…
Merry New Year all. And here’s to an early erection.
Er, election I mean. See what happens when someone mentions Flint…
310 Off to the Optometrist for you my lad.
307 Hope you have plenty of booze on your rig-happy New Year from a fellow Hammer!
310. Maybe you could help me with my central heating. It’s not working at the moment - the pump is broken!
311 Or the vets
This pathetic, woolly, bleeding heart liberal is signing off for the year (I’m on kitten-stomping duties, if you must know).
Thanks for the tears and tantrums that have passed for another year on pb.com. Tip-top venue, tip-top people. And Gabble, too!
May those who wish for it stay gainfully employed in 2009 - and may those who’ve retired have the wherewithall to stay that way.
Until next year then.
313 OK Thunderer, this should really smoke you out….
What do you think of :
(a) Nick Clegg, and
(b) Neil Kinnock.
301
Welcome.
I hope you don’t look like Ms Flint as I don’t have a soft spot for her.
Happy New Year all.
Some Scots greeting about reeking lums which will pass over the heads of the Sassenachs.
Bring back the resident clown: I mean Martin
As a fellow Huddsonian and in this my inaugural post, I should like to add my name in support of Martin Day’s immediate release.
318 Welcome to PB.com
Your first question….
What to you think of
a) Neil Kinnock, and b) Nick Clegg
??????
316. Nick Clegg, who is this Nick Clegg? I have never heard of him.
(b) Neil Kinnock, I remeber Neil Kinnock the former EU commissioner and leader of the Labour party. Good speaker/speech maker.
I hate New Year’s Eve so I’ve actually read the entire thread.
On the stuff about the Euro it amazes me how many lefties think that anything that stops Britain being run by the British is a good thing. I still have a small amount of faith that the Britsh public will fnaly come good.
Surprised to hear about Martin Day. It would be nice to know who he was trying to vote multiple times for.
321 Surprised to hear about Martin Day. It would be nice to know who he was trying to vote multiple times for.
Three guesses Frank!
Happy New Year Everybody!!!!!
In less than six hours Ave it 08 will disappear forever.
Should we all pause for a period of reflection for a pundit whose like will be sorely missed.
322. Martin himself didn’t make the nominations, did he?
You see I’ve been awa for a while……….
Come on Mike.. Free Martin Day……………….
324 In 98 years, 364 days and 18 hours he’ll be back…
327 didn’t get that right- thats when our successors will be saying bye to Ave It 07 mark 2. Its 99 years and 6 hours till Ave It 08 returns.
I’d like to wish everyone on PB a very Happy New Year.
Sorry I can’t join in this evening’s festivities on PB, but I’ve just been informed that a large crowd is gathering in St George’s Square, Huddersfield in support of Martin Day and I’m just finalising my placard.
On a slightly more serious note. What is the point in “celebrating the coming of 2009″ when everyone knows its going to be so absolutely awful.
329 - Welcome, ‘eroopnorth! We’ll have a petition sent to Number 10 by morning!
I’m off to a fantastic restaurant for the evening, so may I wish you all a very happy New Year, and thanks for all your advice and comments throughout the year. It’s been emotional, as the man said in that film…
G’night!
328 By which time we’ll all be celelestially posting on pb.com in the sky
330: Don’t be so pessimistic, MTF - your party still has a chance of winning, however remote.
Happy New Year all!
Happy New Year to all PBers.
My prediction: 2009 will be interesting year!
333
No doubt about it Nick, Labour are going to have a crushing defeat, but I expect it in 2010…………..
320 Happy New Year, Martin!
Happy New Year to all PBers.
33 Tempting to say yours won’t
… but that wouldn’t be quite true.
Hopefully, while not all news will be good, 2009 will see better year for the people of Zimbabwe, Palestine, Israel, Iraq, Afghanistan, Burma, Sudan and the Congo than this year delivered. Obama may not be a messiah but he comes to office with some credit in the goodwill department, may he spend it wisely.
Happy New Year to everybody!
When does the action start in the New Year?
330. I was just saying that today in work! “Wishing you a Happy and Prosperous New Year,” is the traditional wish. Don’t think too many people are going to experience the latter part of that, unless you’re a bailiff, insolvency practitioner etc…
Re Martin Day: the longest journey begins with but a single step
313 - i’m not too good with old boilers, I’m afraid.
You’ll have to find some other way of keeping warm…
For the record.. I am not Martin Day nor any reincarnation or otherwise!
But I support his immediate release!!
For the record.. I am not Martin Day nor any reincarnation or otherwise!
But I support his immediate release!!
..and as the man delivering the takeaway said “May you live in interesting times”
294, sarcasm can be hard to read online, especially when someone’s character is totally unknown. Despite serial sarcasm in reality, quite a lot of things fly over my head here.
Anyway, welcome to the site (or posting on it, rather).
318, welcome, better half of PfP. Er, hope that’s the right Peter.
344. And as John Lennon once (allegedly) said “A man carrying an armful of takeaway is either very hungry or knows someone who is very hungry!”
(Actually it was from The Young Ones!!)
Thunderer? Blunderer, more like!
345. Thank you! Are you a morris dancer or just use it as a name?
347. No my name is correct! Don’t you just love the sound of Thunder - it might be like the noise from John Prescott’s bottom after a night on the lash!
334 Richard - do you succeed in getting the 7/4 with Hills on Brown being the first through the exit door, before Sidney finally woke up this morning. It’s a cracking bet imho, even at the slightly shorter odds of 6/4 the last time I looked. Who knows, this bet may divi up earlier than anticipated.
348, actually, I’m not a morris dancer. I wanted something very English and vaguely silly.
Martin Day’s suspension has been lifted for as long as he behaves himself
He can post immediately.
352. What odds he lasts long enough to make it into the New Year???
345 Morris - Thanks and I’ll pass on your best wishes. ‘Eroop has already left for the protest - I’d have to say she looked very wide-eyed and angry.
352-Congratulations to the Free Martin Day campaign!
352 Vox polulus speaks……………. Well done Mike.
352- Is he on Day release?
352 Mike, you’re a star!
312
Thanks for the thought Patrick but all rigs are dry.
Its a cruel left wing trick I’m sure!!
But Godt Nytt Ar none the less
354, what protest?
356, should it be vox populi?
358-
352
I vote for him to be immediaetly suspended again!!
He was almost more fun when he wasn’t here than when he was.
(Sorry Martin!)
Mike how did the R4 interview go?
299. You cant be Caroline Flint, I claimed her long ago.
All of us who have crossed swords or been blood brothers with him on PB, know that Martin Day is a lovable and funny personage, and greathave on this site.
So I’m instituting a Free Martin Day Petition to Mike.
All who want him to return pronto, just write the line: Free Martin Day
364 Weathercock. You should have read previous posts. El Presidente has already given a presidental pardon in response to requests from PB’ers for his immediate release….
352 Wrote 364. before seeing your posting, Mike. Good for you.
And once again “Happy New Year to all”.
359 Very sorry to hear of your forced abstinence on New Years Eve -as a centre-lefter,to be precise,I feel they could allow leeway for special occasions-but reagrds the possible safety issues in case of emergency etc I suppose a rigid no-alcohol policy has to be adhered to .All the best for 2009-and here’s to a top 10 finish for West Ham United!
364 Too late - He’s Free!
360 My latin is a trifle rustyish (in fact awful) wouldnt it be voces populi?? (Hides in case he is talking bowlocks)
We shall all sing to Mike; “Night and Day, You are the One”
A fanfare will also be sounded at midnight.
Martin Day-our very own ,living,pb Jeremy Beadle-’Watch Out,Martin Day’s about’
I did wish everyone a Happy New Year earlier on and was criticised for it!! However, once again - Happy New Year to one and all
Hi Rik - haven’t been on for a while so I’ve probably missed the boat but welcome back. 3 1/2 hours for Gordo to hang on, gotta be looking good for him now…
The New Year should be interesting but when does Parliament reassemble?
369, don’t feel too bad, I never learnt it at school, only know a little self-taught smattering.
Voces would indicate plural voices, I believe.
Singular voice, and people is singular too, but genitive rather than nominative. Assuming it’s second declension singular genitive (masculine) I think it’s populi.
I wish I could’ve taken Latin at school. Sadly I could only choose one extra language, yet damned French was mandatory.
374, the 12th, roughly. 1 week later than everybody else.
375 A more polite put down is unimagineable….
It’s almost New Year, and I am bored!
No happy new year from Gazprom to Ukraine:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7806616.stm
377, crikey, just re-read my post and you’re right, it does read as a pretty patronising verbal backhander. Sorry
*dances a jig to cheer MTF up*
Off to get rat-@rsed-Happy New Year everybody!
380 Chill. The last time I looked at any Latin text was about 1968… (o Level)
Right, off to see out 2008 in style. Happy new year to friend and foe.
At the next election I wonder if any Tories will be replaced by MP’s from parties from parties other than Labour? The SNP or even Liberal Democrats might take a few seats due to churn?
By tradition at every New Year OGH pardons one of the damned and this year Martin Day drew the lucky straw. The Thumbs are just off now to join the crowd at Smithson Towers to witness another of our quaint NY customs - on the stroke of the midnight OGH flings red-hot newly-minted pennies to the vast throng outside for them to fight over - to the great amusement of his guests. Such simple pleasures we poor folk in Bedford have..
PB Vote Fraud
Am glad that Martin Day has been graciously pardoned from PB’s benevolent despot.
Personally believe that Mad Dog Marty had as much intent to subvert the scared integrity of the pb election process, as the lady in King County, Washington who registered her pet doggy as a voter. SHE (the lady that is) was convicted this past year of vote fraud.
However, the little old lady from King County maintains, and I believe her, that her intent was to make a practical demonstration of flaws in the official voter registration process. And I believe MD’s purpose was equally pure, albeit his method was deporable and indeded indefensible IF his true intent was indeed blessed by the perverted shades of St. Tammany . . .
Disgusted by the reinstatement of Martin Day,you may be assured that this is my final post om PB.com.
.and I am a mam of my word !
386 - he was following the old Irish saying, ‘vote early, vote often’
Now if my husband’s vote had been excepted it would have been a draw between old Jack W and Peter the Punter. We could have gone into a run off. I voted first, then it blocked him from voting.
Long time lurker, but just wanted to say I have voted (JackW got my secret ballot), but I heeded the original instruction not to write any text in the body of the email.
I might even join in some of the discussions this year, having been watching and learning since early 2008.
387. You’ll be sorely missed.
Btw has anyone noticed Nick Clegg bears a remarkable resemblence to Neil Kinnock?
392. I would have voted for Peter the Punter but my vote eas blocked like my postings now!
Martin Day =
388
Mam, typo or alcohol?
Indeed the best thing about the new year is new beginings - alas for some perty leaders, the nightmare has only just begun!
I am under a vow never to post here again,MFT,and couldn’t poshibly comment.
350 PfP - I was too late to get 7-4 but got on at 6-4. Still excellent value, IMO.
391 I like your style URW. I have drawn the long straw tonight, instead of going out and getting hammered, I am on duty at home looking after several neighbours dogs for the evening. They know I love Margaux.. its a one way bet. A result in fact…. but its bloody cold. just been out to let the first one out for a P..
391 I like your style URW. I have drawn the long straw tonight, instead of going out and getting hammered, I am on duty at home looking after several neighbours dogs for the evening. They know I love Margaux.. its a one way bet. A result in fact…. but its bloody cold. just been out to let the first one out for a P..
BETTING ON BLAGO?
Here is my take on the current Prairie State Pantomine (as previously discussed by S&S and other learned/plastered pbers):
1. Gov (and more to the point his lawyer) just hurled the gauntlet down to the entire state and national Democratic political establishment. The die is cast, the Rubicon is crossed.
2. Real question is, what do Illinios voters really want? Is it
a) to be rid of Rod Blagojevich bag & baggage? or
b) to have two US Senators on the job for IL in DC?
3. My guess is that the answer to 2 is a. Of course my analysis is impacted by my personal preference, which is to put the Gov in a sack, take him out to the end of Navy Pier, cut a hole in Lake Michigan ice, and kick him in. However, I sense that I am not alone. And that this feeling is particularly strong among actual Illinoisans, and is being conveyed to legislators, congress, media.
4. Real problem with the agrument that the necessity for two senators trumps all, is that it’s a load of crap. Over the long haul, it is a valid argument, but NOT for the next months or even most of 2009 if it comes to that.
5. Keep your eye on the clock. That is why Blago & his mouthpiece gave nod to Buris, because US Prosector Fitzgerald was scheduled to file indictment right after New Years. But Fitzgerald has now requested nine more weeks, and will get it. Which legally resets the clock.
6. What is going to happen in US Senate, is that Buris will present himself, and the matter will be referred to committee. Where the matter will be studied as per prescedent. Of course Buris is highly likely to file suit in federal court to be seated. BUT as long as Senate is considering the matter per estalished process, then the judicial branch is unlikely to intervene, leastways not for some months.
7. Joker in the deck is the race card. Personal view is, overt playing of race card by Blago as underlined by Bobby Rush, gives Obmama a heaven-sent opportunity to demonstrate to Americans from sea to shining sea that that is NOT his way. Simply by holding fast to his position. Which never actually closes the door on the ultimate prospect of a Senator Buris (which is prudent) but gives the concept zero encouragement.
8. Emerging opinion of Black voters and leaders across US on legitimacy of Buris appointment is less clear. Will be lots of sympathy for him personally and his position that America needs at least one Black Senator. However, my guess is that Bobby Rush is leading an argument NOT a parade. That many African Americans are turned off and suspicious, not to mention disgusted. Will just have to see how this plays out, but would have to think that Obama’s stand will have resonnate and be influential with both Black and White Americans.
9. So far the GOP has done a reasonable job in reacting to the Blago mess. In particular, pushing for special election puts them on moral high ground. And given the realities of the Burris appointment, methinks that the GOP will shortly be joined on the mountaintop by the Democratic establishment.
10. Because as the New Year dawns, it’s clear that whatever happens Rod Blagojevich is NOT going gentle into that good night. Nosir-e! Not Blago! Since the Illinois supreme court has already put the kibosh on the state AG’s legal coup attempt, there is no shortcut that will put Blago’s head on a pike for public viewing in time for the next episode of “24″.
11. And EVEN if the solons & suits of IL succeed in booting Blago and installing Liet Gov Quinn in his place, when and if that worthy makes an appointment, will still be confronted by the phyisical presence of Roland Buris. Who will argue that when it comes to dueling gubernatorial appointees, senority trumps noteriety. Which brings us right back to the original point, only sharpened up a tad.
12. SO to yrs truly is still looking like there will be a special election to fill the Illinois US Senate vacancy. For one thing, my fearless predication is that Black politicos within IL may start swinging in favor of a special election. May even get behind Burris BUT only if he’s elected by the people, not sent to the Senate by a skunk.
Over on mine we are re-writing ‘The Ballad of Stevie G’.
Breaking glass rings out in the barroom Fight
Enter Stevie’s missus from the bar next door.
She sees the DJ in a pool of blood,
Cries out, “My God, he’s lost a tooth!”
Here comes the story of Stevie G,
The man the authorities came to blame
For somethin’ that he never done.
Put in a prison cell, but one time he could-a been
The champion of the world.
395 forgot to add (how rude of me!) that I think Harry Reid & rest of US Senators will help ensure IL doesn’t miss out too badly in the US Senate, for example & most especially in distribution of the new & improved stimulus package.
I mean, how important is it really to have Roland Burris working for you in DC, when you’ve already got Barrack Obmama. Accompanied by an incoming cabinet & West Wing chock full of Illinoisans to put it mildly
Ohhh I’m so bored…
I predict:
Rising Tory support in the polls and increase in vote percentage in the EU and Local elections as well.
No general election will be called this year in the UK.
There will be another NO vote in Ireland.
Kadima will be the largest party in Israel after the next election
Fatah will win the the coming Palestinian election.
Obama will have a new health care plan passed.
All three leaders of main parties in the UK will keep their jobs.
I will have my Phd proposal in Political Psychology accepted!!!
399, I hope all those things come true.
399.
I’ve been wondering about what direction the polls would take. As Portillo points out, the worse things get, the better Labour seems to do. Since things are going to get much worse before they get better, wouldn’t this pattern drive Labour onwards?
Anyway, I’m off. I look forward to seeing if Ave It 09 measures up to the present incumbent.
Many thanks to Mike, Robert, Morus, Double Carpet and others who provide ensure this site is the best reason to log on every day.
A Happy New Year to all.
I predict that the big shock of the New Year will be when we realise that Ave It 09 has spontaneously changed both sex and party allegience. I look forward to many discussions about shoes and how the Lib Dems are going to take Witney in a landslide.
Oh and from Martin Day how much Vince Cable looks like Denis Healey
117 PS. that is s brilliant find! Hope someone from CCHQ is watching.
I am not from CCHQ - though you could be forgiven for thinking I am a product of it [occasionally!]
397. That may well be the case but if Burris turns up in DC and demands his seat as the duly appointed senator will he be stopped from taking it and acting as such? From what I’ve read, there doesn’t look to be much prospect of stopping him.
GHANA PRESIDENTIAL RUNNOFF
With 229 of 230 contituencies reporting, John Atta Mills leads ruling party candidate Nana Akufo-Addo by +23k votes out of 9m cast. Remaining consituency, Tain is located far inland on border with Ivory Coast; in first round it went for JAM.
406 - IF I understand the protocol, Buris will present his appointment signed by the Governor (or already has done so) to the Secretary of the US Senate. As appointee to fill vacancy, under ordinary condiditions get the grand tour, locker key and be sworn in at the next session of US Senate, certainly before new senators elected to terms that start in January.
However, in this case what’s going to happen is the matter will be referred to committee. And Buris will NOT be sworn in or otherwise recognized as a US Senator. Note that there may be some prescedent for giving him some limited facitlities or access on strength of his status as a prospective senator depending on the resoltion of his title to the seat. But wouldn’t count on too much on this.
What Buris will be free to do is tour the nation proclaiming that he’s the rightful heir to Obama and victim of a legislative lynching. Might even try to occupy or sent up office(s) in Illinios to assist his “constituents”.
Plenty of prospect of stopping Burris IF Obama & Reid stick to their guns. Under this scenario, the issue is tied up for some months in the US Senate. Think even Earl Warren (who wrote the US Supreme Court majority opinion in the Adam Clayton Powell case strictly limiting scope of each branch of Congress to judge its own members) would give the Senate several months at least to sort itself out.
401 - Yes but Labour’s support has risen because people believe the economic situation is going to get better over the next twleve months as seen in the Ipos-Mori Economic Optimism Index. This year will be bad economically and the resulting polls will go against Labour, hence my prediction.
408. “Think even Earl Warren … of Congress to judge its own members) would give the Senate several months at least to sort itself out.”
Would ’several months’ be long enough for Illinois to sort out its own domestic difficulties one way or the other? It sounds like the preferred option of Democrat leaders is to kick the decision into touch for as long as possible in the hope that they don’t have to actually make it?
208 - one legal fine point will be the refusal of the Illinois Secretary of State to certify the Buris appointment. Which is I believe part of IL law. Note that IL state secretary of state is an elected official. His office may be lower than the governor’s in power but it is equal in sense it is confired by the peoople of Illinois, indeed at the same election.
410. Mistyped the quote from [408]. The abridging should have been to the end of the brackets i.e. “Think even Earl Warren … would give the Senate several months at least to sort itself out”
411. There has been a suggestion that the IL-SOS doesn’t have any discretion in the matter?
410 - time is not on side of Blago or Buris. In part because I think that IL politicos will be able to sort things out. In large measure because Blago’s pissing into the wind is a strong enducement to get their act together; best way to stop begging spashed by foul Blago byproduct is to turn off the tap.
FTSE outperforms the rest of the world in 2008:
London - down 31.3%
New York - down 33.84%
Frankfurt - down 40.4%
Sydney - down 41.3%
Tokyo - down 42.1%
Paris - down 42.7%
Hong Kong - down 48.3%
Singapore - down 49.2%
Mumbai - down 51.9%
Shanghai - down 65.2%
Bye - see you next year!
407 Noted that - very close election but looks like Mills will win as Akufo-Addo would need to get 34,000 v 11,000 on a 80% turnout in Tain to even matters and as Mills led there in first round its very unlikely.
Parliamentary elections also very close - Mill’s party the NDC has 114 of the 228 so far announced versus 107 for the NPP. Good for development of democracy to have strong opposition.
411 - has this theory been raised by the IL SOS? If not, then it will be for the courts - both state and federal - to chew over.
BUT dismissing the offical acts of a statewide elected official as simply a technicality may be a wee bit of a stretch. My guess is there is plenty of legal precedent, but don’t know what it is. Until I see a convincing legal argument otherwise, am inclined to regard acts by elected officials as not simply ministerial but also public policy.
…from Guido’s ‘Sh*t Politician of the Year’
‘Women done?
“No more than thirty…”
Old-Age Pension?
“It’s about £30, isn’t it?”
Seats on offer to swing a hung, post-election parliament?
“I’d say about thirty.”‘
Nick Clegg, in ‘thirty’-words. Or thereabouts.
December 31, 2008 4:44 PM
Final question of 2008.
Will Av it08 make the transformation to Av it09 safely?
416 looks like the also-ran vote broke for Mills in runoff. Any other shifts?
here is official link
http://www.ec.gov.gh/
…and, of course, “All the best, boys’n'gurls”
All the veries to everyone for 2009! (election year, I suspect)
US SENATE AS JUDGE OF ITS OWN MEMBERSHIP
Court cases (source: Congressional Quaterly’s Guide to Congress 2nd ed)
Kilbourn v. Thompson (1881) “Each House is by the Constitution made judge of the election and qualifications of its members. In deciding on these it has an undoubted right to examine witnesses and inspect papers, subject to the ususal rights of witnesses in such cases…”
Newberry v. United States (1921) concuring opinion by Justice Brandeis: “I am unable to see, in right reason, it can be held that one of the houses of Congress, on the just excercise of its power, may exclude an elected member for securing by bribery his nomination at the primary, if the regulation by law of his conduct at the primary is beyond the constitutional power of Congress itself.” BUT this was overturned by . . .
United States v. Classic (1941) majority opinion by Justice Harlan: power to regulate national elections “includes the authority to regulate primary elections when, as in this case, they are a step in the exercise by the people of their choice of representatives in Congress.”
Barry et al. v. United States ex rel. Cunningham (1929) in which court ruled that constitution “vest[ed] the Senate with the authority to exclude persons asserting membership, who either had not been elected, or what amounts to the same thing, had been elected by resort to fraud, bibery, corruption, or any other sinister methods having the effect of vitiating the election.”
In same case, court also ruled that, “Nor is there merit in the suggestion that the effect of the refusal of the Senate to seat [the claimant] pending investigation was to deprive the state of its equal representation in the Senate…. The temporary deprivation of equal representation which results from the refusal of the Senate to seat a member peonding inquiry as to his election or qualifications is the necessary consequence of the excercise of a constitutional power, and no more deprives the state of its ‘equal suffrage’ in the constitutional sense than would a vote of the Senate vacating the seat of a sitting member or a vote of expulsion.”
Adam Clayton Powell Jr. et al., Petitioners, v. John W. McCormack et al. (1969) majority opinion by Chief Justice Warren: “In judging the qualifications of its members Congress is limited to the standing qualifications prescribed in the Constitution…. Therefore, we hold that, since Adam Clayton Powell Jr. was duly elected [as conceded by Speaker McCormack] … and was not ineligible to serve under any provision of the Constitution, the House was without power to exclude him from its membership.”
Not that the Powell ruling refers to claimants “duly elected” to Congress. Question in Buris case will likely depend upon whether or not he is considered to be “duly elected”, that is whether or not his appointment was valid.
Yet another possibility in Blagomania.
IF Buris is seated in US Senate as result of ruling by US Supreme Court, THEN the possibility exists that the Senate could expell him, which would require a two-thirds vote.
Why are so many posters against eastern european countries?
Surely west european people must understand that russia provides the gas to keep you warm?
Not good result for the right in Ghana (NPP had reps at Conservative Party Conference this year) and this brings Rawlings’ Party back to power (just). Ghana has done pretty well under Kufuor but some of the measures taken to restore stability and manage inflation have caused discontent.
Still its the second peaceful transition of power (so far at least) and gives hope that other west African countries will follow suit.
1 hour to 2009 there, and 3 hours here! lol
I feel sorry for those out in the cold tonight, its perishing here -4 on my max min thermometer. I guess alcohol will warm them all up………….
Happy New Year to all, and a BIG thank you to Mike Smithson, for THE premier political site on the web.
Thanks to Marf for her outstanding cartoons too.
Off to bed……..
Looking like he will at the mo. Shame.
Thanks to Marquee Mark at 44, I read a bit of the Daily Mash, including this gem:
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/loving-this%2c-admit-israel-and-hamas-200812291481/
Well no surprise resignation from No 10 yet…..
Better go join the family for drinks.
Goodbye 2008, not an entirely bad year, probably better than 2009.
Meanwhile, back in MINNESOTA:
Election judge is dumbfounded her ballot was rejected(Minneapolis Star-Tribune 12.30.08)
DULUTH - Shirley Graham was astonished to learn that a lawyer from Norm Coleman’s campaign on Tuesday blocked her absentee ballot from being added to the U.S. Senate recount.
“I’m an election judge,” said Graham, of Duluth. “I expected to be the last person whose ballot wouldn’t be counted.”
Her sealed ballot was among 60 from St. Louis County that were blocked by representatives of Coleman and Al Franken during the first day of a statewide review of absentee ballots that may have been wrongly rejected in last month’s election. Under a state Supreme Court ruling, local election officials and the two campaigns must all agree that a ballot was wrongly rejected for it to be sent along to St. Paul for inclusion in the recount.
Coleman’s camp, which rejected 59 of the 60 ballots set aside Tuesday in St. Louis County, objected to Graham’s ballot on the grounds that the date next to her signature did not match the date next to the signature of her witness, Jack Armstrong.
That’s dumbfounding, Graham said. “Both of us are former educators, and he used to work in the secretary of state’s office,” she said. “As he sat across the table from me, he actually said, ‘Shirley, this date has to be the same.’ I don’t understand how it could be different.”
Graham said that because she works each Election Day in a neighboring precinct, she votes absentee. She didn’t have any idea that her ballot had been rejected, reconsidered and rerejected until receiving a reporter’s call.
“I want to see my ballot,” said Graham, who added that she’d consider going to court, if she must, to get her vote counted.
A final irony: She voted for Coleman.
Still 2008 in the better parts o’ the globe . . . but nevertheless . . .
HAPPY NEW YEAR 2009!
Re 435. He did. Sh*tty New Year everyone, and Good Luck. We need it.
Oh, and Mike, thanks for the site, you became a regular for me last year and I like the style. I may become a poster this year if I feel I can mix with the regulars. Mind you I don’t bet, but I can insult politicians.
From a “lurker”.
Still 2008 here…
Wow first?
2 hours before 2009.Ok now I’m off before is 2009 here.
Happy New year everyone!