It’s no change across the board from YouGov
March 26th, 2009
CON 41(nc) LAB 31(nc) LD 17(nc)
The March YouGov survey for the Daily Telegraph is just out and the numbers are exactly the same as those in the Sunday Times survey from the pollster a week and a half ago.
There’s not really much to say about it.
The key differences between the firm and the other pollsters is that all its surveys are restricted to members of its polling panel - and “certainty to vote” is never used as part of the headline figure calculation. Maybe this is because that members of the panel, through the very fact of them belonging, have a greater interest in politics than the adult population at large.
YouGov weight by party ID and its weighting formula is much kinder to Labour than the firms that past vote weight. Over the past seven months YouGov is the only firm not to have reported a Labour share in the 20s.
MessageSpace Advertising
I don’t want to be first -
2
What a totally boring poll!
Reposted from last thread.
Baxter with the usual caveats gives
CON 338
LAB 247
LD 34
Of course the Tories won’t do as well in Scotland as this suggests and the LD’s incumbency factor should keep them north of 40 seats. Cameron does need to be a point or 2 higher to be absolutely sure of a majority.
3?
5?
blimey - its not halloween already is it..
Repost…
Interesting finding from poll:
“Third quarters of people (73 per cent) believe the top rate should be 45p or more”
We must be a nation of lefties, determined to repress the entrepeneurs who are the engine room of growth to drive us out of recession, etc., etc.
Thanks to Henry G Manson for his customarily excellent tennis tip.
7 - Guarantee that if you asked a question about the basic rate of tax being 25% then the figures will be different.
Given how bad things are Its amazing that nearly 1 in 3 want a Labour Govt. It seems that the Conservatives are pretty fixed in the low 40’s, the big question over the coming months is where Labours vote will go. I find it hard, barring a serious error, to see it going up.
379-Jfsl- As I said in 293, Lula embarasses everyone. What he said is racist.
From your link:
“Joey said: “People in Brazil are very frustrated and angry at what they feel is the injustice of the situation: a crisis that has essentially come from the banking sectors in places like the United States and the UK, but is affecting their country.”"
I am not frustraded or angry and have no idea of what “people” he is saying.
Repost FPT
Hannan has gone full-square in Vaclav Klaus defence mode - with quite some elan. He is obviously out to maximize his exposure while he can.
Despite the fact I think some of Klaus’ views are delusional, I agree that there is a democratic deficit in the EU, and he deserved credit for pointing it out.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/daniel_hannan/blog/2009/03/26/vaclav_klaus_warns_against_the_eus_soviet_tendencies
It’s not a massive lead given the state of the economy. Only a few points swing and we’re heading towards Labour majority territory. Those Tory jitters about sealing the deal continue.
10. I suspect it’s the “heartlands effect.” Labour seem to be posting better readiness to vote figures and that’s probably what’s stopping the headline intention from slumping. Don’t write off Harriet’s broadside about Fred the Shred’s pension. You and I know they haven’t a snowball in hell’s chance of getting a penny back off him but to the Labour grassroots it was exactly the sort of thing they love to hear and they’ll lap it up!
I thought Mervs intervention might have had an effect on Labours number. Perhaps a reasonable poll for Labour this one?
15. Probably happened after most of the fieldwork had been carried out.
I have a feeling that we’re still seeing an overstatement to the tune of 2-3% of the Labour vote in the YouGov polling, on the basis that respondents are probably overstating their likelihood to vote.
Increasingly resigned and demotivated activists coupled with the soft segment of the Labour vote don’t make for an effective “get out the vote” campaign on the actual day itself.
13: Which is good. The Torys need to make the case, and to keep making it why they want to run the country.
13 - yes, and a few the other way and we’re looking at Tory landslide territory.
17 - I would tend to agree, and what polls cannot measure is the effect of the campaign. 3 weeks of a media campaign might nudge Labour down a little and Cameron up a litle.
18 - I agree. The more the Tories are forced to put forward ideas and proposals rather than simply bleat and oppose, the better for democracy.
Going on the BBC website is surreal.
It’s like they are on a different planet from the vast bulk of the UK population.
How does an entire organisation become so institutionally out-of-touch?
Not a single mention is made of a highly isolated and despised Premier hiding abroad to escape scrutiny of his actions. Just a silly propaganda piece which spouts Brown’s latest nonsense as ‘news’.
The G20 has disintegrated into nothing, and all Brown can do is waffle on.
Re 7
“Third quarters of people (73 per cent) believe the top rate should be 45p or more”
Everyone seems to think the ‘rich’ should pay more - but VERY few include themselves in that group. Most think that the higher level threshold should start somewhere just above their earnings!
Has anyone ever asked a survey question - What % rate of Income Tax do you think YOU should pay?
22 - Pretty similar to the stories carried on the Telgraph front page.
Perhaps its you that is out of touch Will?
I don’t know which message I would nominate as the best out of 982,231 but it would have to be something by SeanT. Can we have a poll, with all of SeanT’s messages listed, so that we can choose more easily?
10. remember the lag, the poll reflects peoples views on issues many weeks ago, even months. Except in rare cases it takes time for events to filter through into voting patterns.
Why doesn’t Gordon Brown wear glasses? Is his eyesight so bad that it wouldn’t help? The question has never occurred to me before.
The question surely is:
Why aren’t the Tories doing better?
“Conservatives are pretty fixed in the low 40’s” — but when compared to the past these polls methodologies (as we hear ad nauseum) are now more accurate
so
1 - we cannot expect polls like Blair in 1996- 97
and
2 - these polls are aimed at predicting an election result — and in 1997 Labour eventually got 43.2
So compared to past history being in the low 40’s is pretty good. Despite all the fantasies from some quarters a %age share of between 41 and 44 would be pretty good.
Past polls seem to indicated that something between 41 and 43 might be possible.
A majority of 20 would in reality be worth say 50 given that the Tories can be relied upon to undo the anti tory bias in seat boundaries.
But bear in mind that the election after next might be fought over 500 seats not 650 - so that will have an effect on majorities too.
I would have thought the Parties might like having fewer constituency associations to fund.
26 - Ever heard of contact lenses?
The Brazilian PM is a racist of Big Ron levels.
@26 (JohnLoony)
Wearing glasses would make him more intelligent. It would be even more unfair to those of us who just can’t understand his economic strategy.
Is everybody else having difficulty getting access to vote-2007 today? Or is it just me?
draper vs hannan on c4 news tonight, missed first 15 mins but guess it’s on later. men and boys…
“Why doesn’t Gordon Brown wear glasses? Is his eyesight so bad that it wouldn’t help? The question has never occurred to me before.”
he wears contact lenses.
There was a story the other week about him flushing one down the toilet - oops sorry it was only the sink - he has flushed our economy down the toilet.
29. Er… no? What are they?
32 - it says ‘bandwith limit exceeded’.
32 Vote 2007 message bandwith exceeded/ they havent put their 50p in the meter.
Yes Con 10% clear!
All over Labour!!
Con rules ok!
“he has flushed our economy down the toilet.”
Civil liberties too. I bet he had to flush the toilet several times, maybe even stick his hand in to break up the pieces, before it all went down.
29 - Opticians usually advise people of Gordon’s age to use glasses to limit ocular damage.
35
He lost his contact lense in a hotel washroom a week or two back. They had to undo the plumbing to get it out.
23 I suspect that it is we - the political obsessives - who are seriously divorced ‘from the vast bulk of the population’.So many on here find it impossible not to see every item of news through their own rose tinted spectacles in terms of how they relate to a particular agenda or prejudice.
It is hardly surprising that public opinion at large is so much more balanced and objective!Hence, the failure of the polls to shift in the dramatic way that so many have been predicting for several months.
302 FPT with regard to the BBC EU poll
Except of course Ed the only people who think it is a voodoo poll are those who disagree with its findings. It was carried out by a reputable firm and the only feeble attempts that are made to undermine it are on the basis of ‘not asking about previous election voting’ which in the case of a poll which has nothing to do with party issues is a complete red herring
If I were as brilliant a poster as SeanT, then I would nominate my message (no. 1) on this thread:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/10/24/why-are-these-lib-dem-ratings-all-over-the-place/
Channel 4 News about todo an item on Dan Hannan’s You Tube
33 - How many times I wonder did Draper shout “LABOURLIST”? He is worse than Gordo saying Obama everytime anybody asks him a question.
C4 news just claiming it started in America….Dan Hannan on US blogs. However it was all over guido’s site and pb as well.
Snow trying to claim it was a quirk of the web…p1llock.
I am on the YouGov mailing list but I rarely get to be asked my political opinion just my opinion on things like supermarkets, etc - boring. By the way, I’m a swing voter but I would vote Conservative this time, mainly because I feel it’s time for a change.
Left wing bigot Snow being biased? What a surprise.
36. 37. Yes, but what does that mean? Is it a daily limit thingy? Or more permanant?
26, some eye issues can’t be assisted with spectacles.
Wet macular degeneration, for example, which is also not aided by bastard devolution and lack of funding in England.
46
Neither of them came out with too much credit, but of the two, Dolly was infinitely worse for the very reason you point out. Guido got some good points in about Labourlist not being independent, and Dolly got slapped down by Andrew Neil and told to shut up as he kept interrupting!
now Draper is on
Notice that the “big news” yesterday/today was definitely not King’s intervention and the gilt strike, it was Fern Britton leaving This Morning.
I think that the cut in interest rates, together with no mega-failures like Woolworths, and recession fatigue, has probably contributed to the improvement in optimism (more accurately, decrease in pessimism) shown in the poll.
In that (admittedly rather spurious) light, this poll is moderately good news for the Tories either if a) you believe the Wells’ thesis b) the Wells’ thesis is breaking down.
I notice the Lib Dems have had even less press than usual this week. In spite of that, they’ve held their lead. Good for them too.
Labour, can of course, be heartened that their core vote is hanging strong.
Another poll with the Tories comfortably in overall majority territory. 40% plus remains the target, below which they have rarely fallen since Brown Bounce I.
48
You surprise me, I rarely get asked, but I thought it was because I was 100% certain to vote and 100% certain to vote Conservative. I would have thought you were the type of voter they would poll regularly.
Who would believe that Labour can still persuade 31% of people to vote for them.
Are nearly a third of the populace really THAT THICK ? ……LOL
Labour are finished and the rictus grin of Der Kluncken Fuhrer as he was comprehensively dismembered by Daniel Hannan said it all.
Labour are CRAP!
Draper missing the point about the editoral policy of UK TV news, trying to avoid the issue, same old Tory…
11. I agree and find it ironic how commentators are spinning that it is ‘for domestic consumption’ so that is somehow OK. Do I perceive a smidgeon of double standards and hypocrisy from the Westminster bubble here?
I remain sceptical that Cameron will achieve his 43% share target in the Euros and locals.
On topic given that it is yet another no change poll. I’ve been looking at the Yougov weighting figures (Political Party Identification) at the end of their detail sections (the last poll and one from 2005) and the last poll shows a split for PPI of (weighted figure excluding No votes and don’t knows) of Lab 45% Con 34 LD 15 and the 2005 one shows Lab 42 Con 30 LD 12.
Given I can’t easily see how they get this figure has anyone an idea what they use PPI for and how it is used?
Ha, ha, Dolly throws a tantrum on C4 News.
Draper is a A-class prat isn’t he. Can only talk by shouting, attacking and insulting
57, look at it another way. 50% of people are of below average intelligence. Labour has just 62% of thickos on board, and no clever people at all. 38% of idiots are too smart to vote Labour.
[I really hope the internet Law of Referring To Idiots and in Doing So Making a Stupid Mistake Yourself doesn't happen here
].
62, 63, details?
58 - Actually it was Hannan who made the point that he didn’t expect to be on mainstream news.
And Cable who made the point that Hannan is “batty”
He’s a Rush Limbaugh virus.
Urgh.
64 Reference to ocular strengh and habitation in Scotland excepted, I think you are OK.
59-The thing is, before the crisis came to Brazil, Lula said that the country would not be affected, because he fixed the economy. People believe it, and his poll ratings got really high. Now he’s looking for someone to blame, so he blamed the white people with blue eyes. He hopes people will believe in him again, and will vote for his party in 2010. I hope people don’t believe, and don’t vote for his party again!
65 - He concluded by shouting over Jon Snow who was trying to wrap up the programme: “this was a DEMENTED speech from a DEMENTED party”.
65: He just shouted over Snow ranting about it being Etonian Tory-boy stuff. Ranted about Rush Limburgh like it it and ended up with saying something like demented speech from a demented person or some-so such nonsense
63: ‘Draper is a A-class prat isn’t he. Can only talk by shouting, attacking and insulting’
And Mr Hannan in contrast was modest, relaxed and courteous. Surely, when Labour gave Draper the LabourList job they never expected the bloke to keep turning up on telly.
Tim hasnt posted for 20 mins or so…
68 - Oh he didn’t? Please, that would be too funny.
68, 69, hahaha, classic. Draper may be a brilliant Tory sleeper agent.
68: Demented speech from demented party, yes….
Was Draper sober when he was on C4 or was that just a spurious allegation?
On the topic of core vote, I get a bizarre feeling with polls like this - surely - SURELY - there can’t be nearly a third of the adult population who’ll still vote Labour? Perhaps there’s an element of group-think in this - I read the news, and this site, and others like it, and think - “That’s it now, it’s all over for Labour…” - This isn’t just sites with a stronger right representation, it includes the Guardian feeding-time-at-the-zoo “Comment Is Free”. But I’ve had the feeling for a while, and Labour’s poll rating hasn’t collapsed. If 31% of the adult population supports Labour, who are they, by percentage? say 20% “traditional” - and a % of Oxbridge Lefties - “I’m left wing because people like me are so much nicer and more sensistive than everyone else…” . Who else? How do you get the figure up to 31% ?
69
Will Dolly become an you tube sensation?
David Cameron to meet President Obama on Wednesday?
Looks like that David Cameron could be meeting President Obama on Wednesday. The Conservatives absolutely will not comment when we ring, although his spokeswoman did not repeat the remark by Cameron a couple of weeks ago that there would be no meeting.
Cameron is pencilled in - with a question mark next to it - on Wednesday daytime, after the Gordon Brown presser but before the Queen. Also in that slot is a meeting with the Russians - who don’t have a question mark. Should be interesting…
72 - Actually I did.
But its in moeration.
Cable called Hannan “b@tty”
Is that a bnned word?
http://timesonline.typepad.com/politics/2009/03/david-cameron-t.html
26 The Great Gordo wears contacts, as recently he washed them down the sink, before a speech, someone had to take off the u bit underneath the basin, to fish them out
79
Tim your last post was at 7.34pm approx real UK time.
my post was at 7 51pm
79: ‘Cable called Hannan “b@tty”’
Yes, never forget that beneath all that favourite uncle stuff, Vince is still a fully paid-up Euro-loon.
76. Immigrants. Everyone on tax credits. The mentally subnormal.
76. The payrolll vote in the public services, probably. They know that the Tories will swing the axe and there are no other jobs out there. Many haven’t yet figured out that even if Labour win their reprieve from receiving P45s will be short because we just can’t afford them anymore.
“I’m left wing because people like me are so much nicer and more sensistive than everyone else…”
And when it finally sinks in that other people don’t see them that way they turn into the likes of Derek Draper…
73 Randall suggests the Tory sleeper is the Countess of Longford’s niece
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/5056515/Britains-broke-Labours-finished-mission-complete-Agent-Harman.html
but I suppose there could be several…. Blair, Harman, Draper,……
61. YouGov is an organisation that once had class but has now got hardening of the arteries.
The way the political questions have been framed are distinctly wierd, at least since the turn of the year.
I am not one for forensic analysis, but for those PBers who are, can you look how questions were asked, say a year ago, and now.
Hannan describing Brown’s reaction
“he pulled his face into that grin that makes us think of the cold glint of moonlight on a silver coffin plate.”
85. I’m not so sure. You see unless they have changed the TUPE redundancy arrangements the Civil Service do very nicely out of that as well (not so local government if I recall). Anyway, if it is still the same Civil servants get a month’s pay for every year served rather than the normal week.
Now if it is anything like last time there will be many civil servants who will happily bite the hands off (especially those who have already achieved their full pension rights) the Goverment who offer that sort of redundancy payment.
90 - I would have thought that Yougov don’t set the questions themselves. They only put the questions asked by their commissioning client.
8. Thanks antifrank. 2 tips for tomorrow. Youzhny to beat Berdych @ 13/10 with boylesports.com and Benneteau to beat Blake @ 9/4 with bet365.com.
Youzhny had an impressive 3-set win against an in-form Chardy yesterday and faces a player he’s beaten 5 out 7 times encountered. Youzhny has the better form this year and I have no idea why he is odds against.
Benneteau has had a tidy start to the season making two quarter-finals. His distinctive style means that he often has strong winning records against certain players ranked higher than him. He won his only encounter with Blake in straight sets two years ago and that’s enough to convince me has should be a 5/4 or 11/8 chance at most.
Hehe. The rightwing blogo-idiot reaction to this Hannan rant is hilarious!
“But but why isn’t it headline news? It was on Guido! Wah wah!”
93. Indeed which would explain why when they did polls on 42 days for Liberty (anti) and the Daily Telegraph (pro) the result were aligned with the the position of their customer.
i cannot believe how inarticulate draper is. i cannot for the life of me understand what the powers-that-be are thinking sending him out onto the airwaves…
89 - Jeff Randall has a turn of phrase almost as good as pb.com’s very own seanT.
91 - The bit about Hannan eulogising Iceland for four years stood out too.
86 - Daniel Hannan is a Peruvian Immigrant.
Its complex isn’t it.
Channel 4 made a fool of them selves trying to fisk the Hannan speech
94 Many thanks, HenryG. I followed your Becker tip blindly (as ever) and see that my Paddy Power balance has increased accordingly.
94, thanks
78 - perhaps there are millions of people who appreciate the massive improvements that Labour have made to the country in the last decade, rescuing public services from the Tory rot, millions out of poverty, improving the lot of the low paid etc etc and don’t want to risk that by electing a couple of media-savvy Thatcherite Etonian salesmen who look nicer on telly?
97: ‘i cannot for the life of me understand what the powers-that-be are thinking sending him out onto the airwaves…’
Indeed. When Brown brought Mandelson back, Draper must have come as part of the package - the only possible explanation.
From Iain Dale
The Stench of Decay Gets Stronger Each Day
Iain Dale 6:34 PM
A reader writes…
I was told last week at a private dinner by a prominent Shadow Cabinet Minister, that recently, at the end of a routine meeting at the department that he shadows, one of the junior ministers said to him: ‘You might as well come and see where your office will be’ and he took him around and showed it to him! Following your piece about Dawn Butler, it does seem that parts of the Labour Party have thrown in the towel.
Hilarious.
Crosby probabilistic YouGov (favourable Tory regional distribution)
Con 327
Lab 243
LD 43 (average incumbency)
SNP 11 (on 30.7% in Scotland)
PC 5
Oth 3
NI 13 (SF abstain)
Con majority 9
0.3% swingback to Hung Parliament
99. tim. Many here speculate on your identity. Has anyone actually asked you? Are you a well known political activist?
@84 (seanT)
I wonder what the poll breakdown by ethnic group really is? It seems to be a huge thing in American polls - we’re constantly hearing about the African-American vote and the Hispanic vote. But we don’t seem to do that here…
Anyway, these are the ethnic groupings used for official purposes.
White:British
White:Irish
Any other White background
Mixed: White and Black Caribbean
Mixed: White and Black African
Mixed: White and Black Asian
Any other Mixed background
Asian or Asian British: Indian
Asian or Asian British: Pakistani
Asian or Asian British: Bangladeshi
Any other Asian background
Black or Black British: Caribbean
Black or Black British: African
Any other Black background
Chinese
Any other
My baseless guesses would be:
White:Irish tends to vote Labour for historical reasons (maybe SNP north of the border); other White, mainly EU immigrants?
Other:White is comprised mainly of EU citizens; they seem a natural Lib Dem constituency.
Mixed all tend to Labour.
Indian: Labour
Pakistani/Bangladeshi: Lab/Lib Dem - maybe with some swing back to Lab after unwinding of Iraq war
All black: Labour
Chinese: Labour? Not sure about this.
The Tories definitely shouldn’t be losing all these votes to Labour - many of these groups have high ABC percentages. Similarly, the Lib Dems could do better to mine some of these groups for disaffected Labourites.
Surely we need categories of best post.
Best political tip.
Best nonpolitical tip.
Derek Draper award for most robotically inane post.
Funniest post.
Most surreal post.
Most detached from reality post.
Best “Ah but our customers are different to all others” post (to be sure Nick P wins something).
etc
103, there have been improvements to public services, but not enough to justify the enormous tax rises and borrowing binge use to fund them.
The 10p tax debacle did not enhance Labour’s working class credentials, and pensioners right now are being crushed by food inflation in or near double digits and savings rates at an all-time low.
While we all know that non-voting intention questions should be taken with a whole heap of salt the Telegraph is highlighting a rather interesting result from one of them. Apparently most people are getting rather fed up with the ever expanding public sector. This should make things a bit easier for the Conservatives after they win since whomever wins is going to have to slash public expenditure in order to try and get the books to balance.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/iain_martin/blog/2009/03/26/yougov_poll_voters_want_cuts_camerons_personal_ratings_rising
Sky Breaking News: Earthquake in Japan. That could impact G20 etc.
103…if you put some smileys in it’s easier to identify it as satire. as it stands it looks like you mean it…
109
106 is a good effort for “Most detached from reality post”.
78. Who votes Labour? NArcissists, self-regarding prats, a large chunk of the public sector and the professionally unemployed (that is, those whose “jhob” is to be unemployed). Add that lot up and you would, I think, get about 28 to 30%.
Personally I expect to see something like 44-28-20 at the GE. Last year’s poll of marginals suggested that Labour is weaker there than generally, perhaps because voters in marginals know that they can really hand Labour a kicking and intend to do so.
After the GE, Cameron can sort out the BBC, the state’s support of the Grauniad, and the structural electoral bias to Labour. That will get him another 50-odd seats in 2014.
I posted a few days ago that there was an unexpected optimism or rather a drop in pessimism on the economic future) being reported in the polls and I see that in this poll the negative is only 40% (same as in March 2008) compared to 65% last June. Expected to see a bit of a Labour bounce, particularly after the Clarke “aspiration” stuff, with Governors comments coming a bit late to give Tories a boost.
In the other findings Cameron’s figures continue to improve and Cameron/Osborn lead on economic management grows a bit to 10%.
Seems quite a settled picture but with underlying strengthening of Conservative position on “best for” type questions
110 - if you remember the state of public services in the mid-90s, it’s difficult to argue that the improvements haven’t been significant. More than enough to justify the modest rise in the tax burden.
I agree the 10p thing was a mess. But nevertheless, hard up people are hugely better off - thanks to Labour.
Incredulity that people are still supporting Labour shows a lack of awareness about the way that millions of us normal people feel towards politics.
109. Does Draper qualify for four of the categories on his own?
106. I hope so! If those numbers were the final result I stand to make a good amount from the Labrokes seats market.
103 ” perhaps there are millions of people who appreciate the massive improvements that Labour have made to the country in the last decade” . That’s interesting! Let’s have a think about that. Ermm… Nope.
The eloquent Mr Hannan writes in the Telegraph (I don’t think this has been posted previously?)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/5056587/For-once-Gordon-Brown-had-to-sit-and-listen.html
117, modest rise in the tax burden? Tell that to pensioners who were shafted by Brown.
103
Then again maybe, as in so many things, it is the simplest answer which is correct. Some people really are thick enough to believe that voting Labour will make things better. It is sad to realise that the intelligence and education of so many people in Britain has declined to the extent that they do actually believe any of the garbage that the crawling, mendacious, spittle ridden labour clones spew forth.
What people of any real intelligence will come to realise is that Draper and his ilk are not the exception amongst Labour supporters. The majority of them really are that in inarticulate and deranged. They are the dying rump of a dying party and their only hope to prevent being judged as complete failures by history is to drag the country - or even better the world - into oblivion with them.
120 - ermmm yep. 31% of the (certain to vote) electorate at the last count.
116. Yes the evidence continues to suggest that despite improvements in the economic confidence index, Labour is not making much ground. The Wells correlation appears to be weakening - bad news for Labour.
“perhaps there are millions of people who appreciate the massive improvements that Labour have made to the country in the last decade”
And then again, perhaps rather more take the view that Labour have done a lot of damage to the country over the decade.
117. ‘us normal people’
hahahahahahahahahaha laugh of the week
117. I don’t remember people dying in filthy hospitals of diseases they didn’t have when they were admitted, do you?
Latest score from You Tube.
Gordon Brown and European Parliament 1000 hits.
Daniel Hannan and speech at European Parliament to Gordon Brown 818,000 hits.
I see Brazil’s Lula has been blaming “white people with blue eyes” as agents of the global crash.
Duh? The Swedes? What did they do wrong?
Surely he would have been better off blaming the Jews.
Madoff - Jewish. Lehman brothers - Jewish. Fred Goodwin - Jewish. Head of AIG Maurice Greenberg - Jewish. Bernanke - Jewish. Greenspan - Jewish. Goldman Sachs - fond of matzos. Etc.
I jest, of course. But if Lula wants to get all racist he could at least wrongfully attack the right powerful minority.
118. I reckon Dolly would qualify for all but the first two. A good betting tip would imply he was occasionally useful, which flies in the face of all the evidence.
Guido is now suggesting he doesn’t have any proper psych qualifications at all.
123 - yes. Good point. And by the same token, Tory supporters aren’t just thick and chronically under-educated, they are also socially inedequate, racist, self-absorbed, and probably had unhappy childhoods.
Grow up.
AVE IT
129, a flesh wound!
130. Enjoying your book by the way, was reading it in the bath last night!
115 John R - “Personally I expect to see something like 44-28-20 at the GE”
Yes, that’s similar to my expectation. The reasoning is simple enough; we’re currently cruising at 41-42, 30-32, 17-18 or so. Add a couple of points to the Conservatives as they roll out the final campaign (’government in waiting/seal the deal’ stuff), allow for Labour to fall a bit as the final realisation of what a mess they’ve made of the economy sinks in and unemployment rises, and a small LibDem boost from disaffected Labour voters.
130. Um. He might have had his savings in an Icelandic bank.
129 have you got a snooper on my Mac? had just looked to see what respective YouTube views were…spooky
127. Re 117. It always strikes me that those who have to impress their normality on everyone are those who are in fact most uncertain whether they are normal or not. Such insecurity always betrays itself don’t you think?
131: Well he did use the word demented twice…I’m not sure in which clinical context though.
140, what was Draper like at the pb.com anniversary bash?
138. No but Jackiebootw will have transformed herself into jaqucibot.
139 - let’s face it, most people have not been busy checking Guido Fawks for info about Hannan’s hit rate on YouTube for the last couple of days, have they?
135. Good to hear. I live to please!
Who would believe that Labour can still persuade 31% of people to vote for them.
Are nearly a third of the populace really THAT THICK ? ……LOL
Labour are finished and the rictus grin of Der Kluncken Fuhrer as he was comprehensively dismembered by Daniel Hannan said it all.
Labour are CRAP!
by Silent Hunter March 26th, 2009 at 8:00 pm
But that means that the electorate think that the Tories are fairly CRAP too.
L
O
L
143. I was talking ABOUT you not TO you. Now don’t be rude and interrupt other people’s conversations.
144- SeanT
I’ve pre-ordered it in the US.
143, pedantic but normality is not the same as majority. Most people don’t have blue eyes, but you aren’t abnormal if you do.
93 - Not so Marcia. I wrote six questions for a poll a while ago, and they were reviewed by Mr Kellner and his team and changes sent back. Only tinkering, and quite correct too, but it’s not quite ‘whatever the customer wants’
I’ve been speaking to them about voting intention questions for another poll, and asked if I could have the question structured in a different way to their usual method for comparison’s sake. Essentially, I could, but they would not allow me to publish, because it would not be using their recognised standard.
They go as far as they can to work with the customer, but fundamentally their business lives and dies by the rigour of its methodology, so they are very careful about what they accept and on what terms. Which is how it should be.
130. Fred Goodwin is not Jewish.
My mother’s maiden name was Goodwin, and although she looked a bit Jewish, I can assure you she was not.
124. These massive improvements in British Life. I work as somebody who knows about computers and data and what-not. Much of my contract work in the last decade has been in the public sector.
When you’re asked to report on something, it tends not to be “Tell the truth, and let the heavens fall.” More like “Do some graphs that show we’re doing really really well.” Those massive improvements? My lying bloody graphs.
143 - I would quite like to see Derek Draper’s closing outburst again, but it doesn’t seem to be on Youtube yet. I reckon that might get a fair few views.
Looks like Hopi has written the Channel 4 report.
135. The book about buıbbɐɥs and buıʞuɐʍ-ǝbuıq or The Ludlum Facsimile? If the former, telling us you’re reading it in the bath is kind of over-sharing…
153. Turn on c4+1 now
Wasn’t there an article the other day saying 20% of the population now was either born abroad or their parents were? If the split of those was 60/20/20 Lab/Lib/Con then that would be 12% of the total 30%.
Sean - have been waiting to see you on here to tell you what I thought of your book. It started well but the violence porn just got too much for me, the story would have worked OK without most of it and there wasn’t any sex!
That and the sun setting over Troy - when Troy was to the east of where they were. But not bad.
Noticed was 13th in Smiths at Euston but not mentioned in WHS Market Harborough (they only had one copy though)
One should note that Tim has dissapeared since he was asked if he was a paid Labour troll @ 107
156 - The television is being hogged by higher powers to watch housey housey programmes.
Still predicting an increased Lab majority, a-bot?
130. Yes he is: his mother was German Jewish.
http://www.absoluteastronomy.com/topics/Fred_Goodwin
Intriguingly, his wikipedia page has been altered, of late, to excise this fact.
160. http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/politics/attack+on+brown+a+youtube+hit+/3049602
145
No it doesnt Icarus, it means that so many are dependant on state handouts. Thats why the nation is f*cked, and why the debt burden is so huge.
163 - You’re a true gent (unless you’re a lady, in which case, apologies).
Daniel Hannan on BBC News 24- MSM finally gets with the programme!
165: Don’t get many ladies named Scott
167 - You don’t get many men called antifrank, I don’t judge by internet names.
161 - never have done, R-bot.
Incidentally, just saw this rightwing masturb-hero Hannan on C4 news. Oh dear oh dear.
Student union social inadequate little Tory rant-o-bot, stranger to facts. And big fan of the Icelandic model of economics. Born loser.
Another dreadful performance by Dolly. Scruffy, shouting, ranting, some old Dolly.
169
Anderw B(ot), are you Tim?
169. You’re the born loser pal peddling your idiotic tripe.
I see the BBC News page now has the Dan Hannan You Tube video link
158. You’re not alone, Icarus - the main criticism I have received is about the violence.
Interestingly (to me) we had a debate about this before the book came out - my agent was worried it was too violent (and I appreciated her concerns); my publishers were adamant that it was acceptable.
The violence is certainly not gratuitous: the whole book is about the origins of human sacrifice, so it is bound to be violent, and the true weirdness of human sacrifice can only be brought home by detailed description.
I also believe the reader would have felt cheated if I had just said “and then he sacrificed him” and had drawn the authorly curtains.
However the number of people who have said “it’s too gory” has made me wonderk; as Morus lately pointed out to me, you might enjoy the book but hesitate about recommending it: precisely because of the blood.
That’s a factor I hadn’t considered before.
On the other hand, some people really enjoyed the murders! You can’t please everyone….
As for Troy you are wrong - sorry! That scene is set, I believe, in the Princes islands, and Troy - south of the Hellespont - is west of there. I know because I went to both places last year…
171. RE 169 Do all ‘normal’ people write in such an eloquent high-brow manner?
162. A job for Easterross then, to get to the bottom of it, via Scottish genealogical investigation.
Sounds like myth to me.
An alternative view of Draper’s performance (from lunchtime)
Warning, not for the easily offended. SeanT can take notes
Draper is, without any competition whatsoever, the most repellent advocate for a political party since Joseph Goebbels fronted the Hitler for Fuhrer campaign. Which obviously Goebbels was good at, as Draper is not good at, oh, anything much, let alone evoking affection for any organisation suicidal enough to permit the ridiculous oaf to presume to speak for it.
http://tinyurl.com/chpqdp
Seriously. It looks like this Hannan bloke is the new Toryboy pin-up, and that’s good news for Labour. A complete chump.
178.
Hint - You are trying to hard.
132
I wouldn’t know since I am not a Tory supporter. Again you suffer from the usual delusion that anyone who opposes Labour must automatically be a Tory. But the empirical evidence from observing people like Draper and Tim supports the contention that Labour supporters definately lack something in the intelligence stakes.
174. SeanT. I just finished the book. It moves along at a jolly pace, and I was keen to finish the story, but I too would not recommend it to my book loving friends. Sorry
176 Ah… you don’t believe in Jews. Maybe I understand now.
Has Dolly ever been on the telly and not thrown his toys out of the pram? He also looked really scruffy and thats no understatement.
178 - trying to do what? It’s just my opinion.
173. The Dan Hannan You Tube story is being peddled on the BBC site as attracting the attention of American Media, and US bloggers with no mention that News Editors on UK TV news chose to ignore it. It is hard to see why such an articulate attack on Brown was simply left on the side lines.
173. Not really - Euro MPS very rarely have a high profile!
Sorry that should have referred to 185!
150 - Morus, thanks for that information. I had presumed they just asked the questions that the client put to them.
I’ve just put another tenner on Hannan for next Tory leader. The price is now 100/1.
He’s had such a boost in the media that he’ll get a bit of star status within the party and his Brown speech will be recalled time and time again.
He’s still got the little problem of not being an MP but maybe the exposure of this week could prompt a development on that score.
He looks like a Teflon politician - things won’t stick to him.
185 - yes. Rightwing bloggers getting excited about a spittle flecked fact-free rant by a two-a-penny Toryboy nonentity is clearly more important than this kind of thing. BBC bias!
“UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown has called for a $100bn (£69bn) global fund to underwrite world trade as his pre-G20 summit tour continues in Brazil.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7964910.stm
Evening All,
Like everyone else here its difficult to understand a poll with labour only 5% down on the last general lection. I don’t know what is going on but if i can pretend for a while to stoke the flames of this thread will you indulge some anecdotal observations ?
1. We are at the end of the annual March government advertising binge which is timed to use up unspent cash on proaganda just before local government purdah. By far the best for years all tied round the “Real Help Now” narrative with initiatives on everything under the sun. Its difficult to turn on commercial radio with hearing it. Of course this year purdah is a month later because the euros and delayed locals and next week the new years ad budgets come into play with I suspect much front loading. We have another 28 days of the blitz.
Will this swing a single voter ? probably not. If you are a left leaning collectivist looking for shelter will this stuff increase your likely hood to vote ? Perhaps.
2. I can’t help but wonder if Peter and Hattie know something after all. Whatever else it has achieved this Fred the Shed thing has absorbed an awful lot of incomming that would otherwise have gone to Brown Central. Its not doing anything positive for Government popularity but is it drawing the sting ?
3. While Brown is getting a dreadful press the only thing worse than being taked about is not being talked about. We know that cameron on TV drives tory polling. However useless we think Brown is he is at least being seen to do SOMETHING even if its just be the centre of attention. Is this having an “at least he is trying” effect amongst Labour voters ?
4. Finally i have dinner with several public sector friends over the last 10 days. They all know that big,deep,awful cuts in spending is comming. As one of them put it to me -
” If Christmas is comming and you are a goose that has grown fat whoes farm do you want to spend autumn on ? The one who is organic free range farmer selling direct to a market or the Turkey Twizler supplier with a death barn who doesn’t care because of his contract with finger lickin good?”
If you are in the public sector and you know the cuts are comming its clear to you which farmer is which.
We are still no further towards knowing the central question of British politics of this parliament.
The Casino Royale Question.
How low is Labours core when we have never had a 13 year labour government before.
Is it perhaps a couple of points higher than we all thought ?
Anyone else get shivers from the pic of Brown that Mike uses these days? He looks incredibly shifty…..
re 190. Andrew - I think that your partisanship is affecting your judgement. Hannan could become very dangerous for Labour.
Your party’s reaction over the past couple of days is very telling.
Actually I think equating Andrew B with Tim misses a more obvious answer. He is Gabble returned in a new form to plague us with his inconsequential opinions and dribbling diatribes. He’ll be sppouting class war slogans at us next or highlighting a 1% rise in the stock market as a sign of a return to the glory days of Brown’s (very modest and absolutely prudent) boom.
193 - I don’t know why you refer to “my” party.
But aside from that, I don’t see how Hannan could become “dangerous”. He looks very much like a good preacher to the converted to me.
Tory throwbacks don’t sit well with the electorate.
181. Cause of the violence? Or because you just didn’t like?
Don’t worry - I can take the harshest criticism. All feedback is good. My agent will be narked if the book fails to achieve huge success cause of the violence; she fought a fierce but losing battle to get the violence toned down…
RodCrosby: quite possibly it is myth about Goodwin’s mum. The claim is repeated on the net in the same words again and again - which is often the sign of a handy fib being recklessly disseminated. There is no direct source. However the Jewish claim did appear - even if it has been later removed - in several online encylopedias.
So we are left with two intriguing alternatives. Either Goodwin (or someone) finds his parentage embarrassing and has sought to disguise it; or anti-Semites are going around spreading false rumours about “The Shred”.
I hate to break up the sanctification of Dan Hannan, but is there any room for news about Mr Boss of Hannan?
http://tinyurl.com/dkmshz
194
It was vaguely sarcastic, same meme, different tag.
189
Mike, I really can’t see Hannan ever getting close to being Tory leader. As has been said on here before he is too much of an outsider as far as party politics goes (one of the reasons why the attacks on him by Labour trying to equate him with mainstream Tory policy fall a bit flat).
Anyone who has read his book would see that his vision is one that most Tories would unfortunatly consider way too radical for a potential leader.
189 Mike - Unfortunately Ladbrokes seem to have an algorithm whereby when you place a bet, the odds halve! Now 50-1.
OT anyone know whats happened to Vote 2007?
http://www.vote-2007.co.uk/
McDoom’s post-politics career in horror movies is assured.
197 - hope it goes better for Dave than the last time he met Obama.
I doubt it though.
193- Mike
The most obvious sign that Labour is taking this seriously is that some pro-Labour reactions have begun to appear on the Youtube comments. One typical line is “Brown is still the best to lead us”.
194 No Gabble is/was a class above tim/andrew b. Reason for suggestion he was Denis Macshane was that he argued cogently but with the same disregard to fact or previous opinion. Repetitive posting, yes, but less Draper/ Whelan type attacks on person not policy.
Draper looks like a care in the community tube loony
203 Its Obama looking to meet Cameron - the White House trying to establish links with the future PM. Rather casts doubts on Mandelson’s “story” published in Geoffrey Robinson’s rag.
190 andrew b - “Rightwing bloggers getting excited about a spittle flecked fact-free rant by a two-a-penny Toryboy nonentity”
Looks like andrew is seriously rattled.
Given the reaction of tim and Hopi earlier, this can only mean that Hannan’s attack hit the spot for what andrew calls ‘normal people’. Interesting.
re 200. Sorry Richard.
I have noticed that when I place bets in the early hours and publish at the same time then the price stays until about 8am. I should have waited.
My guess is that Shadsy gets an automatic alert by text and he makes a quick decision.
I think that 50/1 is probably too tight.
203- andrew b
I gather you’re still referring to the ridiculous rumor launched by the new statesman… Frankly, after the way Obama deliberately humiliated Brown in Washington a few weeks ago (a fact openly discussed in US newspapers, the question being WHY and not IF), I would suggest that you stay quiet on Obama’s opinion of British politicians.
By the way, why would Obama agree to see him if he didn’t like him? He really has no obligation to do so.
209 - Yes, 50-1 is not worth it. 200-1 was good, 100-1 maybe.
191.’Like everyone else here its difficult to understand a poll with labour only 5% down on the last general lection.’
I think it is often forgotten how BADLY Labour did in 2005 - polling just 36% was a poor result, and a lower share than received by the victorious party at any British General Election in the 20th century.The fact that the Tories did even worse is rather beside the point - Labour having barely exceeded its 1992 share of the vote and falling well short of 1992 in actual votes cast!
The effect now is to make 30 - 32% seem better than is actually the case. Personally, I will not be at all surprised to see Labour poll at the next election a share quite close to 2005 - say 34%
re 199. I agree that he has a fair bit of policy baggage - but he’s got that Teflon look about him and that’s the most precious political commodity of all.
210. A couple of weeks ago Cameron said he had no intention of asking to meet Obama on this visit, with it being the critical G20 meeting. So did Cameron ask to meet Obama or does Obama want to meet with Cameron?
196 - I’m more intrigued by your view that “Lehman Brothers - Jewish”
How can a bank have a religion, or race?
210 - that’s the one - Obama’s opinion of Cameron as a lightweight.
Given the political similarities between Brown and Obama, and the seemingly widespread opinion of Cameron as a jolly chump, I’d bet that the White House is praying for a Labour victory.
re 212. I find that hard to support. Just go back to the last ICM poll and the 69% saying that “it’s time for change”. That included 27% of those saying they were voting Labour.
212
with >3 million unemployed?
180 - Richard, you gave the impression that you voted for Patrick Mercer.
208: I think you’re probably right. I haven’t seen anyone take on the substantive points made in Hannan’s speech.
To some extent it helps that noone has heard of him. The fact that Brown was actually present makes it like a European parliamentary equivalent of an election campaign doorstepping by a disgruntled consituent, when the Newsnight cameras happens to be running. There’s no winning strategy if they actually have a reasonable point to make.
Had the media covered it at the time, and invited a rebuttal, it could possibly have been dead and buried by now - lost in a swirl of G20. The fact that it has grown a life of its own - and the credibility of 750,000+ viewers - before making it into the news cycle means that it is probably going to gnaw away for a long time to come.
216. Yeah, right. Obama wants lots more intimate meetings with Gordon “I hear you place basketball” Brown; cause the prez and the PM obviously had such a hootenanny last time around.
Dolly on Channel 4 news is up on Dale’s site
re 216. Which “seemingly widespread opinion”? Source please?
216: political similarities. You mean both spending vast amounts of money in a reckless bid to bankrupcy?
217 - people always say it’s time for “change”.
Was looking for projected budget deficit figures in USA and this blog site came up, which also has post on Hannan and mentions him in this article.
Explains why “you have run out of our money” plays so well in the US. Scary forecast deficit right through the next decade from both White House and Congress Budget Office; worrying times ahead even if US growth resumes soon.
http://tinyurl.com/dknz39
Was looking for projected budget deficit figures in USA and this blog site came up, which also has post on Hannan and mentions him in this article.
Explains why “you have run out of our money” plays so well in the US. Scary forecast deficit right through the next decade from both White House and Congress Budget Office; worrying times ahead even if US growth resumes soon.
http://tinyurl.com/dknz39
“I’d bet that the White House is praying for a Labour victory.”
Tough.
218 Thatcher polled 43% with 3 million unemployed!
216- andrew b
I happen to live and work in Washington DC.
I haven’t heard, seen or read anything in the last few months that would support your opinion of Obama’s “praying” for a Brown success.
The only way the Brown visit managed to be mentioned in the first few pages of the Washington Post 9left leaning and very very pro-Obama) was through the comment on the deliberate snubbing manners of Obama’s team and the farcesque story of the DVD box.
Brown’s speech to Congress was reported on a quarter-pager on page 10, after a full page dedicated to a priest giving pasta-cooking lessons.
227. Bush was running a dreadful budget deficit for the entire of his second term. Similar in context to Brownenomics…
225
Yes they did When Blair came in!
229 falklands effect
233. Yes, as a war victory really did it for churchill and Bush Snr. Blaming her success on Falklands is a get out for many lefties (present company excepted) who cant face up to the fact that she was right and people understood it.
209. Mike. I was just toying with the idea of having a bet on Hannan at 100/1. Can’t see it myself but nor will I be able to tolerate all the crowing here if he does come through and me without a penny on him. But 50/1 is not going to tempt me.
Ah well. I shall just have to invest elsewhere.
219
Once yes. But since, as I have said in the past, I do not vote on party lines nor support any given political party that hardly qualifies me as a Tory supporter.
In fact going back over my voting record I find I have voted for non Tory candidates far more than I have for Tory ones and the Tory party is not even the party which has benefitted from my votes most (I phrase it in that way simply because again I make a point of voting for a candidate not a party)
As an aside and to make it clear although it is not relevant to this discussion, at present I am very unlikely to vote for Mercer at the next election - even if I am still living in Newark which is now doubtful - because I feel he has failed to represent the views of the electorate as far as important local issues are concerned.
232 - yes. The difference being
a) Blair was very, very popular. Cameron isn’t
b) Labour had popular policies. The Tories don’t.
c) Labour had insurmountable poll leads. The Tories don’t.
A quick scan through the thread seems to indicate that the Labour line to take will be on the:
“He’s a nutter”/”He said something nice about Iceland 4 years ago so he’s obviously wrong about everything so we can simply ignore the content - please move along, nothing to see here” theme.
(P.S. SimonStClair - thanks for the nomination - I was seriously flattered to be mentioned on that thread)
233 - Falklands effect mythology.
Thatchers percentage fell from 1979 so the Falklands effect didn’t even get back all the people who voted Tory in 1979.
Split opposition.
233. I am very much of the view that there was a significant Falklands effect - though quite a few Tories deny it and point to a recovery in poll ratings already firmly established.I find it difficult to believe, however, that it made the difference between say 37% and 43.5%!
201 GIN it looks as though Mark Senior has spent all his pocket money ordering “Winning Here” barcharts for Edinburgh South.
Does anyone know where today’s council by-elections were occuring and whether they were safe or marginal wards?
237 - I think OGH needs to take you into a sealed room and explain a few things to you!
237 Andrew you may be correct but frankly all you have done is list 3 opinions. None can be substantiated or refuted.
236 - So you voted for the prime mover behind the extra house building in Newark,which is why you are leaving the area, yet claim that Labour supporters are lacking in intelligence.
Top effort.
Mike are we getting another regional view tomorrow and have you got someone lined up to do one for Northern Ireland?
237 andrew b “Blair was very, very popular.”
Oh yes? Then why did so fewer people vote for him in 1997 (13.5m) than for John Major in 1992 (14.1m)?
You are deceiving yourself.
“Labour had insurmountable poll leads. The Tories don’t.”
Labour’s “insurmountable poll leads” were the consequence of flawed polling methodologies.
231 Gaz, did you look at the forecast figures? Bush was indeed a Big State politician running a deficit (though, unlike Brown, deficit was reducing from 2004 to 2007) but the size of deficits going forward are on a different scale.
244,not lacking in intelligence,just NASTY.
241. Easternross, I’ve no idea what wards they are in, but I think there are six or seven bys today? Lets hope someone comes on later with some results.
246 - turnout fell.
Get with it.
Thatcher 83 was unlikely to be Falklands effect or split opposition.
Economy had already turned around and polls were moving in her favour by then. I’ve seen this discussed a number of times and the conclusion has been that the Falklands Effect was far overestimated.
On the split opposition - the second choice of Alliance voters broke heavily for the Conservatives over Labour (Charter 88 has a website somewhere with the British Electoral Survey details on it).
216 - Similarities between Brown and Obama? Are you on mind altering drugs?
One is witty, charming, popular, likeable, charismatic, friendly, open, and ELECTED - and the other is Gordon Brown.
251- a sure sign of enthusiasm for Blair this reduced turnout, isn’t it?
Labour need Draper off the telly. He was a mess on channel 4. Hannan came over as a nice slightly posh bloke who seemed genuinely confused by the youtube success, but understood where it came from and wanted to keep doing it. Draper came across as rude, ignorant and nasty. He slagged off Hannan and the tories randomnly, incoherantly making vague accusations inbetween calling Hannan various names.
O/T - Has anyone seen the Daily Mirror ad that has been popping up on Sky today? It shows an image of Brown followed by an image of Sugar, with the slogan “From PM, to P45″. I think there might be a subtle message there..
251. Yes, turnout fell, despite Blair being massively ahead in the polls and some kind of lefty messiah, people didn’t vote rather than vote for him.
251 andrew b - Precisely. We are getting somewhere now I think. Blair was not massively popular, so didn’t attract a massive share of the vote, but the Conservative vote fell dramatically. The government was unpopular.
Now, consider 2010…
244
Isn’t it fun to mislead with timelines. Tim. Some might call that outright lying.
At the time I voted for him he was not supporting extra housebuilding. Indeed the whole question of the extra housebuilding and the application for the government’s Growth point scheme had not even started to be discussed at that time. It was not even being discussed at the 2005 election when I did not vote for Mercer.
It was the Tory controlled local council which made the moves - in secret - to draw extra development to the area. Again a reason why I won’t vote for them.
But of course don’t let a little thing like facts get in the way of your sad slander.
237 (a) Cameron is very popular by comparison with Brown, (b) the public at large prefers what the Conservatives are offering to what Labour are providing them with and (c) barring some freak event, the Conservatives’ poll lead is most unlikely to be overturned.
I think this andrew b poster is rather sweet!
255. Draper looks like a dishevelled and drunken oaf, full of incoherent and pointless bile. I can’t imagine a worse and yet more fitting evangelist for the fag end of New Labour.
More Draper, please.
241 - Mark, I think there are only 2 both Labour held seats:
from a LD site
Wolverhampton City, Ettingshall (Thursday, March 26, 2009)
22 February 2009, 12:22:50
Oxford City Council, Headington Hill and Northway (Thursday, March 26, 2009)
251, Of course turnout fell. So what? That’s an effect, not a cause.
“Oh, I’m not going to go out and vote for that very, very popular Mr Blair after all - turnout’s down this year, you know”
Turnout was down because fewer people voted. So Richard Nabavi’s point that fewer people bothered to vote for Blair in 97 than did for Major in 92 is completely valid. Had a similar number bothered to vote for him, turnout would not have been as low. And the Conservatives would have been even more hammered.
If anything, your point either underlines Richard’s (in a “yes, turnout turned out to be down - rather disappointing” sense) or completely misses the point altogether (In a “Well, fewer people voted because fewer people voted! Hah!” sense - which doesn’t really make your point look sound).
252. I think the Falklands effect was rather more subtle than that. For quite some time - say 2 years - I suspect that it bestowed a credibility on Thatcher’s policies that had simply not been there before.People were - thereafter - prepared to give her a chance , and the benefit of much doubt in a way that was not at all evident pre-Falklands!
A special treat for those high-brow intellectual followers of the most eloquent Derek Draper:
http://tinyurl.com/ckx66a
re 237. Please check out this table before writing such posts.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/pb-guide-to-polling-methodologies/
262 From a comment on Iain Dale’s:
“How much is the Conservative Party paying broadcasters to use Derek Draper as the face of the Labour Party?”
268. How true! Draper was exactly what the tories need, a rambling twit filled with self importance and about as articulate as a lorry.
262 Draper is a hottie, and I have to switch the TV off when he makes an appearance in case my wife gets ideas. Kate Garraway is one lucky lady.
Only just catching up. From previous thread - all time best post - Rogerdamus first post on the “Could this man be the next POTUS”.
“No more boom and bust”
256. It is almost surreal that the Mirror was running it, I thought that I had misread the ad. But it is as odd as The Times Court Circular reporting that HMQ met the B of E Governor, followed by a meeting with the Chief of Defence Staff. Perhaps Brown’s jet is going to be diverted to Brize Norton, and he is taken of to be sectioned by a team of psychiatrists.
As for Draper, would any PBer who needs therapy go near him, perhaps he practices aversion therapy. He looks as if he averse to the use of soap, a comb and a razor.
re 252 & 254. When Blair took over the leadership of Labour in June/July 1994 ICM had the party at 44%.
On election day in 1997 Labour got 44% - so zero added value.
I think that you are going to see very different comparisons between the pre-Cameron Tory poll positions and what happens at the election.
263 thanks Marcia, always the lady. Thank goodness we have you, Christina, Maisie and a few other ladies on PB.com.
263 - I just realised that are the seats where the LD have candidates, there may be more where there is no LD candidate.
As for Draper, would any PBer who needs therapy go near him
I imagine that he would be very successful. One session of his tirades and any patient would claim they were cured!
275 - I have that sticky keyboard again!
I just realised that these are the seats where the LD have candidates, there may be more where there is no LD candidate.
273 - Jeremy Thorpe 1974 - 19%
David Steel 1979 - 18%
No added value.
212 does make a good point about how bad the Labour result was in 2005; it was masked by their comfortable victory in terms of seats, they actually got 35.3% of the vote which was considerably less than Labour got in 1979 when they were handily defeated.
273 - fair point.
As an aside whilst you’re mentioning historic polling, it’s interesting to bear in mind that Neil Kinnock regularly held 10 point leads or more.
There are in fact 7 by-elections tonight.
NE Lincolnshire, Yarborough - Lib Dem seat
Newham, Royal Dock - Labour seat
Oxford, Headington Hill and Northway - Labour seat
Redditch, Central - Conservative seat
Redditch, Headless Cross - Conservative seat
Wolverhamton, Ettingshall - Labour seat
Melton, Long Clawson and Stathern - Conservative seat
280- Try to read again post 267, slower this time.
276 - Ouch!
From memory there is a By in NE Lincs. LD held with a strong Con and BNP challenge. Headington Hill and somewhere in Oxford. Lab Held. LD and Cons challenging. 2 bys in Reddich both Lab Held. don’t know if they are in Jacqui Boots seat. 1 Lab seat in Wolverhampton.
and I think Melton. Is that Leicestershire ?
282 - I don’t need a “PB” guide to polling, thanks.
Re the poll - I’m not so sure we are seeing the enfeebling of the Wells Hypothesis. The unlikely surge in economic optimism may be what is keeping Labour at these 30ish poll levels.
What else can it be that sustains Labour? The reek of terminal decay, given off by this cadaverous government, is filling every nostril in the realm. Yet 30% of people are still willing to support an obviously venal, chaotic and flailing administration.
Because they personally feel OK, economically.
But these economic optimism figures will surely head south. Ireland is about six months ahead of the UK, in terms of the downturn, and they’ve just posted a horrible 7.5%GDP shrinkage for the last quarter, with more to come.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7965664.stm
If that is also our destiny, then by the Autumn all optimism may have dwindled and Labour will be nearer 25% than 30.
281. Thank You !
278. Huh? So what? The Liberals lost seats between October 1974 and 1979. What is the point you’re trying to make?
There’s a bit of ebb and flow going on as people digest the news but at the moment I don’t think many people are fundamentally reconsidering how they vote. It’s possible that the G20 will be mildly positive for Labour and the Budget is likely to be mildly negative (Budgets nearly always are), but I doubt if we’ll see any huge movements before June (elections often crystallise changes since they force people to have a think about how they want to vote). Our main job is to stay in reasonable distance to be in a position to narrow the gap if the economy turns.
As for who votes Labour, the core is the same coalition as it has been for years: Guardianistas+ethnic minorities+traditional working-class. The first two are very solid at the moment; the third is unsure. There was also a fourth group, apolitical economic ‘winners’ (prosperous young couples etc.) and this group is currently leaning Tory (because they feel less like winners in the current climate) and accounts for much of their lead. It’s a fallacy, exposed by a recent poll, that it’s all about public sector workers - the LibDems are the ones who do relatively best there.
But to explain to the baffled posts above why the polls don’t shift more: traditional worknig-class and ethnic voters don’t on average follow the news that closely, so they don’t care who won at PMQs and they certainly don’t sit around downloading Tory MEP speeches. The Guardianistas (not all of them actually Guardian readers, of course) identify strongly with Labour and in many cases with Gordon personally as a serious, austere social democrat. Cameron can make as many speeches about greenery as he likes to this group, who are Labour’s mainstay in many marginals like mine: they’re immune to his charms and always vote, though we lent a chunk to the LibDems over Iraq.
BTW vote-2007 is down tonight (used up their bandwidth ration!) - hope Mark Senior and others will post results here. There’s a tricky 3-way marginal in Oxford (split ward, I think) that I know we’re worried about; not sure what else is happening?
281 Thanks ME. So are we expecting 2 Lab gains in Redditch given how popular the Home Secretary and PM are ?
288 - The point I’m making is that Steel may have had added value simply by maintaining the poll ratings he took over from Thorpe.
As may Blair from Smith.
Labour GB share since 1970 (the last time both main parties got over 40%)
1974 Feb 38.0
1974 Oct 40.2
1979 37.8
1983 28.3
1987 31.5
1992 35.2
1997 44.3
2001 42.0
2005 36.2
284
Vote 2007 wont help, no ones come up with a credit card to get them back on line
285 You do, Andrew, you do.
285,
Fine - your choice. It merely means that we can all simply ignore your references to historic polls, as they’re obviously made in deliberate ignorance.
290. Redditch Central is a split ward with Labour winning in 2006 and the Conservatives in 2008. I think the by-election was caused by the disqualifiction of the Conservative Councillor who was jailed for failing to stop after an accident and then was chased by the police through parts of Birmingham.
There will be an election shortly and we get to see the real figures, the Glenrothes scam not withstanding. Still the registers are missing.
289. Nick, I agree with much of you assessment but isn’t that fourth group of the New Labour coalition - the “apolitical economic ‘winners’ [or losers, when they go to the opposition]” - more or less the definition of the floating voter? Labour can’t win without them (as the Conservatives couldn’t these last three elections).
289 Nick P - “It’s possible that the G20 will be mildly positive for Labour”
I think not. As I posted earlier, it might have been, but events (Mervyn King, troubles with the gilt auction, even Dan Hannan) look likely to torpedo any short-term advantage. And Gordon Brown has made it worse with his hectoring tour, alienating possible allies. So I anticipate a net negative effect of the G20; media coverage will be dominated by riots and talk of splits with our European colleagues.
“But to explain to the baffled posts above why the polls don’t shift more: traditional worknig-class and ethnic voters don’t on average follow the news that closely, so they don’t care who won at PMQs and they certainly don’t sit around downloading Tory MEP speeches.”
Spot-on. That is exactly why Labour’s support is going to collapse further over the next few months; the average voter hasn’t yet appreciated the full horror of what is happening to the economy, and the chaos in government.
292. It always amazes me how on earth Labour polled 37% in 1979. Must have been Sunny Jims personal charm and the weakness of the Liberals
294 / 295 - chuckle.
I have some experience of the industry thanks.
My point, broadly, is that people who think a 10 point Tory lead in the current environment is safe are, quite frankly, completely wrong.
292. meaning that if Labour can at least equal their result in 1987, it’s unlikely the Tories will get a majority…
Labour are only about 0.5% away from this figure now.
Just another reason why a hung parliament seems very likely…
301
I dont think anyone said it was safe. and noone is complacent.
300. Much smaller third- and minor-parties then - Labour’s share in 1979 was still their worst GB total since 1931, though obviously that record didn’t last long.
301. Why so? Assertions are all very well but given your track record so far, a bit of analysis might help your credibility.
re 300 Well the Liberals had been stupid enough to keep the discredited Callaghan government going through the Lib-Lab pact. For this they got f-all. Then there was the little matter of their former leader due to appear at the Old Bailey on a charge of conspiracy to murder in the week after the 1979 general election.
Even someone with the spinning skills of Derek Draper would have found that tough.
304. Really? If 1979 was their worst share since 1931, I bet 1983 was a shock!
302 Rod - I don’t understand your point there. We are talking about the same 1987 election, are we? The one with the Conservative majority of 102?
300. Gin - One word “Maggie”!
It must be remembered that Maggie being the first female Party leader probably cost the Tories considerable votes IMO in 1979.
If another leader had been taking the tories into that first election I should imagine the Tories would have had a bigger majority.
303 - I know.
You can tell how jittery the Tories are from the “WHEN we win power” tone of their rhetoric and similar stuff from their cheerleaders on here and in the press.
306. Yes, the Liberals were a shambles at the time. Good job PB wasn’t around then. Can you imagine the fun Martin Day would have had.
298/299: Yes, I agree with both David Herdson and Richard Nabavi that the ‘vote for prosperity’ segment is the key floating vote and you need a large chunk of it to win. If Richard is correct and the economy will get worse and worse, I agree the Tories will win comfortably. If it improves by next summer, they’ll struggle. That’s why we have some gloom-addicts here who rubbish every positive indicator and greet every negative one as the final crack of doom: they’re nervous of the political consequences if things improve.
I don’t personally think any of us really know, and we therefore can’t reliably predict the political position in a year’s time.
306. And they only suffered a net loss of two seats. Without the Thorpe factor they could well have made net gains…
311.
re 309. Martin - I agree with you. I think that Maggie was probably a negative at the 1979 election and that if it hadn’t been for the winter of discontent than Callaghan might have held on.
312 Thanks Nick. Sounds like we should certainly be betting on 2010!
312
Nick, Any possiblilty of “green shoots” is being poisoned by Gordon Brown’s reckess spending of future generations money. It has to STOP.
re 311. Not if he had a dog he wouldn’t!
317. Yes Brown was a keen advocate of a sound based recovery in the 1990’s! But he was also keen on a Prime minesterial apology!
94 “We heard today a prime ministerial speech with no information of substance, no explanation, no justification and certainly no apology to the people of this country.” Gordon Brown
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/03/26/its-no-change-across-the-board-from-yougov/#comment-982528
309. I’ve read and heard that the ‘woman leader’ both cost and won votes for the Conservatives in 1979. Obviously both can’t be true in net terms but I doubt it had much overall effect. Her personality probably was a net negative pre-Falklands, a net positive for the Conservatives during the mid-eighties and then a net negative after about 1988, when she’d clearly stopped listening to anyone.
309/315 There was still considerable disquiet in parts of Conservative Party - later identified as Wets - as regards Thatcher right up to election and her period as Leader of Opposition wasn’t particularly smooth. Public pick up on that, and Callaghan tried to use that disquiet about her readiness or ability for office.
The Falklands effect was probably greater in internal party politics, enabling her to take control of Cabinet and to place more of her own in positions of power. The more coherent message and lessening of internal Cabinet splits (leaked to press) combined with economic recovery is IMHO what caused the recovery in polls and victory in 1983 (and the unravelling of Cabinet unity and bad polls in 1990 finished her)
309/315 There was still considerable disquiet in parts of Conservative Party - later identified as Wets - as regards Thatcher right up to election and her period as Leader of Opposition wasn’t particularly smooth. Public pick up on that, and Callaghan tried to use that disquiet about her readiness or ability for office.
The Falklands effect was probably greater in internal party politics, enabling her to take control of Cabinet and to place more of her own in positions of power. The more coherent message and lessening of internal Cabinet splits (leaked to press) combined with economic recovery is IMHO what caused the recovery in polls and victory in 1983 (and the unravelling of Cabinet unity and bad polls in 1990 finished her)
317. We could risk having a ‘double dip’ recession, with the overhang of the public debt impeding our ability to escape from the first recession.
Think I’m going to try Firefox for a while to see if that stops these double postings!
Pele apparently dissed Gordo but No 10 is trying to spin it that there never was any meeting arranged.
my eight-week old baby has a head like eric pickles on QT now. less milk i think
Interesting that Draper has been doing the rounds of the TV studios today. Given his, er, patchy showing, I wonder if he will continue as Labour’s attack dog - given that McNulty has suffered the political equivalent of being taken to the vets to have his nuts off.
Pickles on Question Time tonight along with errmmm Michael Winner, wish they wouldn’t lead on the Iraq question.
319. Sorry posted the wrong link!
http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1992/sep/24/economic-policy#S6CV0212P0-00590
Richard at 316: oh, yes - a 2009 election can be discounted failing some quite remarkable development.
323 - that is very true, and quite a scary prospect.
We went into this recession in a good position - low government debt and so on.
If we have, as is looking increasingly likely, reached the bottom sooner than expected and the economy picks up this year or early next, then the aggressive monetary and fiscal policy we’ve seen could lead to a boom that needs to be seriously dragged down.
But when you head into a global recession as serious as this, what is the alternative to trying to alleviate it?
BTW vote-2007 is down tonight (used up their bandwidth ration!).
I asked before, but nobody answered: what does that mean? Is it a temporary hourly / daily thingy, or is it more permanent? What needs to happen to make it accessible again?
326 “my eight-week old baby has a head like eric pickles”
Then I pity your good lady some eight weeks ago!
Eric Pickles, by the way. What a complete idiot that man is. Dear me. The Tories really are a one man band aren’t they? And even he isn’t that great.
332
Someone with a credit card.
332. Vote-2007 has been down since at least 7.30 this morning.
333 Have there been any boundary reorganisations that affect Pickles.
Is all of him still in the same constituency?
I’ve heard that there may be an upset in Royal Dock, Newham.
334
That must rate as the delusional post of the day
Goodnight all
333. wouldn’t be so bad if it was a boy…
i’ve decided that derek draper is johann hari at a musketeers fancy dress party, but slightly more excitable
Mental image on Pickles romancing a lady- not a good image at all.
337… i’ll admit i found that funny. tim’s better than andrew b
Everywhere I turn, I see Lula comments. Is that some kind of curse?
341 The old Soames gag about a wardrobe with the key in the door springs to mind…
332: without knowing the terms on which the site is rented, it’s hard to say, JohnLoony. But I’d think the ‘ration’ is probably monthly, so it might be back in April.
Is this the G20 summit that Brown has being going on and on about! One lousy day! I thought it would be 3 or 4 days and was at the end of April! Don’t think he will get a bounce out of that!
Gordon’s save the world summit next Thursday is going to be awfully short.
Leaders’ breakfast 8.30am - 9.45am
Morning session including finance ministers and central bankers 9.50am- 1.25pm
Lunch 1.25pm - 2.30pm
Afternoon session including finance ministers and central bankers 2.30pm to 3.30pm
Closing press conferences, 3.30 onwards
So it’s 4 hours and 35 minutes of formal talks plus time spent chatting over three meals (including Downing Street dinner the night before). And the British taxpayer gets not much change from £20 million quid for the pleasure. Bretton Woods, when international institutions were last re-made, lasted three weeks.
http://timesonline.typepad.com/politics/2009/03/the-london-summ.html
Pickles..”theres a bit of Mills and Boon in me”
Both of them Eric, both of them.
It’ll be back shortly, chaps. I promise!
348. How short is shortly?
you know it’s time to go to bed when a northern public sector worker blames teenage pregnancies on thatcher shutting the pits…
347 - v. good!
128 - my brothers mother in law contracted several bugs in hospital starting last December, she died last week without ever getting out of hospital.
Someone who works with me son had to have an operation - a senior NHS doctor (who has ties to that family) advises against going into a certain (NHS) hospital and advised him to go privately
I also still cannot get over my stay in hospital a year back a real eye opener.
Tom Harris’ post on this poll result elicited this response
As I’ve written here before:
The country is crying out for a change, but not necessarily, a change of governing party - yet.
A clear out on the labour front bench - brown included, along with the continued unconvincing performance from the tories, could well see a labour government returned to power in 2010.
If I were a lib dem, I’d be worried though, I think they’ll be quite rightly routed at the general election.
NickP, any thoughts?
OT SeanT, the violence, or rather the explicit descriptions, too much.
347 ”theres a bit of Mills and Boon in me”
Are they well-known Northern pie manufacturers?
An end to Tory Boon and Mills…..
349 - now
355 How soon is now? (to return to The Smiths theme of a couple of days ago!)
355. Yes vote 2007 up and running but no post since around 1.00 this morning.
Doesn’t Ed Davey sound like Jimmy Carr:)?
338 - What sort of upset?
Front pages:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/The-Papers—National-Newspaper-Front-Pages-On-Friday-March-27-2009/Media-Gallery/200903415250067?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15250067_The_Papers_-_National_Newspaper_Front_Pages_On_Friday_March_27%2C_2009
356. I heard that Gordon Brown likes dire straights!
By-election result in Headington Hill and Northway, Oxford:
Labour 548
Tory 443
Lib Dem 378
Green 62
This is a swing from Tory to Labour (Labour won by 30 votes last time the election was held in 2008). Lib Dems won the ward in 2006, now in third place.
All three main parties put a lot of effort in (apparently Tories did 10 different leaflets during short campaign period). Needless to say, fantastic result for Labour.
361 - Money for nothing?
359. Newham Royal Docks would be the ward in Newham with the Conservatives not far behind Labour and no one else close back in 2006.
359. Looks like the LD’s are going to get no votes!
http://www.newham.gov.uk/NR/rdonlyres/7460C4C2-F8BB-46FC-8543-8B28EF4097EE/0/noticeofpoll2009.pdf
356 - yes the site has been down for most of the day. My apologies - ran out of bandwidth allocation and have just upped it again. Vote UK is getting more visits, more visitors and more page views now than it did in April last year when we were in the middle of elections…
363.
362. Yet another underwhelming result for the Tories…
Now here’s a thought…
Is there now a “shy-Labour” syndrome in opinion polling?
Pickles implodes!
Snout in the trough MP Pickles getting rightly trashed for his ludicrous justification for abusing taxpayers money.
369 Oh dear. MPs expenses are such a minefield.
368 - How do you explain Crewe and Nantwich?
371 - only if your up to your eyes in it.
Pickles lies about distance to his constituency.
37 miles to Brentwood and Ongar?
Ouch, thought Pickles could have done better than that. That’ll surely be in the papers?
368 - it has occured to me.
Pollsters have been weighting the Tories like mad for a long time, even more so since the London Mayoral election.
The underlying figures make fascinating reading. In the country at large, there is little difference between the popularity of Labour and Tory. It’s an interesting time.
372. The Tories were significantly further ahead in the “polls” then than now, and Dunwoody had depressed the Tory vote for 25 years?
recount in Newham, apparently less than 20 votes in it but thought is Lab to hang on
Great Oxford result - we thought we would just squeak it but the 3-way split made it hard to call.
Thanks to Iain for restoring vote-2007 - it’s much valued!
Pickles was indeed pickled. Managed to end up positioned as the person trying to defend people like McNulty (and himself)… not very nimble.
Thought he’d been quite good until then..
374 Just under according to the AA
Somewhere a Conservative press officer is watching Eric Pickles’ last 10 minutes on Question Time and sobbing.
Eric Pickles was a disaster tonight. Crikey i thought Dolly on Channel 4 news was.
360 So why has Gordon Brown talking to Queen about change to Royal Succession, getting rid of ban on Catholics and primogeniture for males suddenly become headline news?
Surely not to distract from the implosion of Brown’s economic policies and failure of G20 World Tour (The Governor, Hannan and Criminal Blue Eyed White People so far).
Then of course the good Presbyterian son of the manse, secret Rangers supporter, wants to give Cardinal Cormac a peerage as well. Could Roman Catholic voters in West of Scotland and Lancashire be in danger of voting for anther party?
Ah, the Tories are doomed because of one local by-election; the Tories are doomed if you look at unweighted polling samples. Good old PB.com itself. I’m moist-eyed with nostalgia just thinking about it…
383 - Was bad
Crikey - i thought the summit was lasting longer than 4 hours! What huge waste of money.
381 how much under?
Kebab joke - lead balloon.
He’s having a mare now..
My god what an ugly panel QT has come up with this week haven’t they?
As a matter of curiosity, what is the turnout in these council by-elections? How does that compare with the annual local elections? The numbers look very small, I can’t imagine anyone other than the most politically committed bothers to vote, and I bet a lot of them do so based on local issues. Anthony Wells did an article a while back debunking the idea that local by-elections were predictive of anything.
I’m sure the Pickles Pickle will, like the Hannan rant, be headlining on Guido and here and elsewhere and snowball into an internet sensation that eventually makes the proper news tomorrow.
After all, these bloggers are interested in politics and snouts in the trough and not just bashing Labour. Aren’t they? Aren’t they…?
Was he saying it’s 37 miles from his home to Westminster?
ie he may not live in his constituency (or at least not in the middle of it).
382 Cameron might be pleased though, easier to drive changes through if people like Pickles get the message.
Poor old Eric, he really did put his foot in his mouth there. Not in the most Tory part of the country either - they were baying for Pickled Pickles at the end there.
392 - Clearly you missed Guido’s non stop criticism of Spellman?
392 well if the Labour blogs can make it one, why not try?
380. The crematorium bit is funny with Eric pickles going on about the disgusting smell!
I am fortunate that when ever i drive through the ‘fallout zone’ of the crem, I have the forsight to circulate the air in the car before i get within a mile!
384 It’s to try to win back the Catholic vote following things like banning Catholic adoption agencies, embryo research and the like. Ditto talk about a papal visit.
I rate Pickles. How on earth does a man of his experience self destruct is such an oddly beautiful manner ? And what was in Daveys briefing. he is on QT in a council with a national news story going on run by his own party and he doesn’t know anything about it ? Winner was low rent populism.
From my viewing Clarke and Lucas were the one eyed kings in the land of the Blind.
394 - what “changes” would these be, then?
391 Turnout was up in Oxford compared to 2008 local elections .
LibDems hold NE Lincs Yarborough with increased majority .
O/T. Anyone know what shape RESPECT are in and how they are likely to fare in Bethnal Green and Bow and also in Poplar and Limehouse?
402 Percentage?
400 - Ed Davey jumped straight to council incinerators and Pickles described what temperature his body would have to reach before it turned to ash.
Have I taken LSD?
388 35 miles to Ongar, but Pickles may live elsewhere in the constituency. I’ve driven that route on many occasions, and it can take an hour or more depending on the traffic. His example is nowhere near as bad as McNumpty’s.
The changes in Yarborough were: Lib Dems +4.4, Conservatives -0.4, Labour +2.5, Generalist -2.4, based on May 2008.
403. BG&B has “Labour gain” written all over it…
P&L could be close between three candidates…
Headington Hill and Northway (city council by election today) is a three-way marginal previously held by Labour with a 37 vote majority over the Conservatives.
The city council is run by a minority Labour administration, with Lib Dems a fairly close second, so both are desperate to get the seat to bolster their numbers. And the conservatives are desperate to get it because they have no city councillors at all, while the (conservative) county council wants a toehold in the city. So we have been bombarded by literally dozens of leaflets from each party, all inevitably claiming that they are in a two horse race with one of the others. Thankfully my doorbell doesn’t work, so I have not had to talk to any of the canvassers.
403. Respect are fading away, many of their councillors in TH have moved to Labour. GG is not going to fight Bethnal Green. It seems likely that their impact in future elections will be minimal at best, maybe the odd councillor elected as quasi independents. If Lab are to face a serious challenge it will be from the Tories in Poplar & Limehouse.
I am not in the country so haven’t seen QT but if Pickles implodes like Draper or Harmen then too bloody right it should be on the blogs.
These are politicians - our paid servants (are you listening Nick?) and every single thing they say and do should be picked over and criticised (in the proper sense of the word “To judge the merits and faults of; analyze and evaluate”).
We need more rather than less examination of what politicians say and do especially when they go into melt down.
402. thats interesting. There was a very unusual use of an AME about that By which suggested the party was in real trouble. Crying wolf will get you nowhere next time.
Christine Hamilton on This Week… what does that necklace look like?
One other thought on the Oxford result - that’s a 7.8% swing in that ward since 2006 from Lib Dems to Labour. It’s in the Oxford East constituency, which is marginal between Labour and the Lib Dems. Labour are 5/4 with Ladbrokes to win it next time, tonight’s result suggests that is excellent value.
413 They look like a string of gob-stoppers. Although, the gob-stopper that can stop Christine Hamilton’s gob has so far eluded the world’s finest confectioners…
Apparently lab hold royal docks by 16
Vote 2007. Wolverhampton : Lab Hold
415 - My friend said they looked like something far ruder!
406 Plenty of Pickles constituents get on the train every day, work long hours and get back late at night. No MP with an hours commute should get a second home allowance. If they are to late to go home there are clean reasonably priced Travelodges or similar within walking distance and they could claim the actual cost of those (say max £80 a night overnight stay).
Vote 2007 also has Melton as a Con Hold
414 - That one is a nightmare to predict.
Depends what effect Peter Tatchell has.
411 it wasn’t pretty. I think he knew wat he wanted to say (which I think in any case was a fairly flimsy cover for cashing in) but he went at it bull-headed, got it wrong, wound the audience up, got defensive and then threw a really cheap shot at Ed Davey which wasn’t supposed to be a cheap shot but came out as one anyway (Lib Dems don’t need to be in the house as early as me - true, but snippy)
He did acknowledge he has muffed it up though and looked pretty crestfallen.
We could do without a GE campaign run like that!
Should go on the web and we should all have a good chuckle at Erics expense - he has earned it with that nonsense
419
I agree.
which MP was it who used to take the sleeper train up and down to his constituency overnight? Not sure if he was doing it to save the tax payer or himself money?
Didn’t watch QT myself (silly bloody programme), but if Pickles did make a pillock of himself then I’m pleased to see many Tory posters taking it on the chin and saying that Pickles has no excuses and needs to sort out his game. The contrast with Labour posters’ reaction to Draper’s antics earlier this evening - i.e. to smear and insult the impeccably well-mannered Mr Hannan to distract from Draper’s boorish behaviour - is telling.
419 hear hear. Scrap this nonsensical allowance system and implement a flat (but extensive) salary - work it on a reverse weighting system - the further flung MPs getting a ‘Not London’ Weighting
414. the Lib Dems have had two unhappy stints in control of Oxford in the last 10 years. In a local by election arguably the Conservatives are more of a legitimate protest vote than the Lib Dems. I think the proposition will be different in a GE with a change narrative and frankly the tories will be putting diddly squat effort into oxford east.
Tim is right. the tatchell factor will be an issue and its not clear who’ll he’ll take more votes off.
That said right to point it out. The local party chucked the kitchen sink at it and to come third is poor in a national target seat particularly when you elected a council there 3 years ago.
The Pickles thing was a poor moment for him no doubt about it. But I get the impression thats the kind of guy he is. He’s from the Prezza school of politics in that he’s not very articulate and he probably is prone to putting his foot in it.
That said, sleaze is toxic for ALL political parties - With the public holding the view that “They are all as bad as each other” Which is why I very rarely post on here about “sleaze” in a partisan way, because as soon as as Tories chime up and attack Labour you can bet a Tory is going to be exposed and the same the other way.
424 - Pickles is Chairman of the Coservative Party.
Draper is a blogger.
424 ‘Should go on the web and we should all have a good chuckle at Erics expense - he has earned it with that nonsense’
Talking of TV train wrecks, I’ve just had the misfortune of watching Draper on Channel 4 News earlier tonight. What an utter disaster. He’s a shambling, scruffy, near incoherent wreck. What on earth were Labour thinking of when they took him back on board?
423. David Steel?
428: ‘Pickles is Chairman of the Coservative Party.
Draper is a blogger.’
That remark only validates my point.
414: yes, Andrew Smith has attracted attention before for his party’s unusually good results - could be a good bet. The close run in Newham is good for the Tories (assuming they’re the other party) on an otherwise medicre night for them.
What did Pickles say that was so awful? (Yes, QT is another popular political programme that I don’t watch - Stark Dawning and I at one for once)
408/410. RodC and jgc. Thanks. On that basis I think P and L value with Ladbrokes as a Tory win at 11/4 while BG and B value with Skybet as a Lbour win at 1/2. I’m on!
433 - The Tories in P&L depend on Galloway standing.
414, donpaskini,
You are reading too much into a tiny city council by election. A swing to Labour was probably simply because the Lib Dems and Tories spent all their leaflets attacking each other. I’ve no idea why: it left Labour a clear run.
I’m quite sure that Andrew Smith is a goner (which is a pity because he is a nice guy, whatever you think of his politics). The Lib Dems highlight his loyalty to the government to good effect, and also Oxford East gains some student areas in the boundary changes: it’s already notionally Lib Dem without any swing at all.
LB Newham, Royal Docks
Labour 723
Conservative 708
CPA 94
RESPECT 35
Turnout 22.6%
432 Nick, Eric went on the ‘I have to be at the House early and leave late, so I need it, but I only claim 55% of my allowance’ - Caroline Lucas pointed out a lot of nurses work late.
Walrus Clarke was calm and methodical - fairly impressive for a many-time buffoon on this subject.
Hannan speech clip on This Week - Neil says second fiscal stimulus has suffered ‘death by a thousand cuts’
So we have had a BNP + 17.4% in NE Linc and +13.1% in melton both from nowhere. A pointer to June ?
“Next on Mr Brown’s agenda: invade the Channel Islands”
By Martin Kettle
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/mar/27/gordon-brown-g20
I’m sure it’s been said but a good poll for LDs. Yougov has had us 14-16 for a long while, so nice to be consistently up a bit. Welsh Lib Dem Conference on 17th-19th, will try and listen out for some local info if I can.
“Steve Richards: Will Brown’s G20 boasts go the way of the election that wasn’t?”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/steve-richards/steve-richards-will-browns-g20-boasts-go-the-way-of-the-election-that-wasnt-1655287.html
And:
“Andrew Grice: Brown has been forced to lower expectations”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/andrew-grice/andrew-grice-brown-has-been-forced-to-lower-expectations-1655353.html
Looks like a great result for Labour and Steve Brayswhaw in Royal Docks.
437: thanks, Dyed.
442 funnily enough, when Clarke was describing what to do about expenses - review, rationalise and the like, Eric was nodding and aping his hand movements - you could see he was thinking ‘bugg*r, thats exactly how I wanted to put things’
439 Marin Kettle’s conclusion:
“Along with most commentators, I had concluded that the return of Peter Mandelson to the government in the autumn meant that the leadership issue which so convulsed Labour last summer was finally dead until the general election. Now I begin to have doubts. There is talk again, not much but more than for some months, about whether Brown can hold on till the election. The verdict on the G20 will be very important here, as will the budget and the European elections. It can’t just go on like this for another 14 months, one Labour MP complained this week. But it can, and it will - won’t it?”
439. The important snippet from the Guardian article from a betting perspective is this
Along with most commentators, I had concluded that the return of Peter Mandelson to the government in the autumn meant that the leadership issue which so convulsed Labour last summer was finally dead until the general election. Now I begin to have doubts. There is talk again, not much but more than for some months, about whether Brown can hold on till the election. The verdict on the G20 will be very important here, as will the budget and the European elections. It can’t just go on like this for another 14 months, one Labour MP complained this week. But it can, and it will - won’t it?
And yes, Pickles was dreadful.
I’d go so far as to say its not just the fical stimulus thats be killed off. I also think this is the final nail in the coffin for Brown as an effective, credible PM. Sure, he can carry on in office, but I think his credability has been pretty much totally destroyed. Once a PM loses economic credability the games up and although this isn’t really reflected in tonight opinion poll, I can’t believe that over the next week or two we won’t see Browns/Labours standing dropping back, particularly on the economic questions, but also on the general voting intention questions and everything else also.
444/445- Great minds…
Its been a while since we’ve seen a Tory treated with much contempt and loathing by a QT audiance. It’ll be good practice for just over a years tome when they’re in government.
Steve Bell’s take on the ‘ultimate stimulus package’ or in the word of Cpl Jones, ‘they don’t like it up em’
http://www.guardian.co.uk/theguardian/cartoon/2009/mar/26/obama-brown-steve-bell-cartoon
Pickles should never ever be let near a TV camera again. I thought he was rubbish on Daily Politics with Blears (when the Titian painting thing happenend). But tonight he completely lost the plot.
He might be great at the street campaigning and the strategy, although I personally have my doubts. I think Labour lost C&N more than the Tories winning it. But he is definitely no Ken Clarke.
A whole day full of car crash political TV.
PM and Palace discuss reform of the Act of Settlement 1701.
Perhaps they should be talking about something more relevant to the general populace?
By the way, Diane Abbott is absolutely right. There’s going to be an expenses mega-scandal when the expense receipts are published.
Who do you think has fiddled the most? Because this sort of thing gets through to people in a way that arcane macroeconomic news won’t.
If the Lib Dems have actually managed to keep themselves cleaner than the Labour and the Tories they could get quite a big boost.
448 - Pickles phobia goes viral on You Tube.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUk_3eKL9Xk
457,000 views already.
450. I think your perhaps being a bit OTT. He had a bad night. It happens. He’ll get over it. Although the way he answered the question was pretty bad, he was also in the wrong place at the wrong time. Any other week his living arrangements wouldn’t have been an issue.
In any case he’ll be kept around because if nothing else he helps Cameron “de eton” that shadow cabinet.
445/446 Well, snap! It’s an interesting paragraph; however I think that, yes, things can go on like this for another 14 months.
455. Indeed. The Tories went on for four and half years like this, so I’m sure Labour can manage another 14 months.
And with this, I’m slopping off to read another chapter of Tom Knox’s book.
455. Richard N. If Brown did stand aside in the next few months, do you think it likely we would face a 2009 General Election?
452. I suspect we’ll be slightly cleaner, but not by much.
454 the only consolation is that Pickles will be seen as “they are all in it” - not great for Tories but not great for Labour, Lib Dems or any other MPs.
452. Some of the LD’s too their credit in London do not claim ACA - folk like Ed Davet and Vince Cable IIRC! But i am sure their are probably a few Labour and Tories who do likewise!
But i should imagine as with all parties it is going to be a real mixture. The LD’s are likely to get stung on this as bad as any other party. IIRC Guido caused much trouble about Clegg’s expenses for starters!
453
Thankfully Tim you are way too obvious. So instead of clicking on your link I went to Youtube and put in ‘Eric Pickles’.
And of course found that once again you are being your normal cavalier with the facts (is that known as fibbing?)
Largest Pickles youtube hit is Pickles talking about the C&N election. A total of just under 5000 hits.
You really are way too untrustworthy for us to fall for your tricks.
By the way, Dan Hannan’s clip is now just over 844,000 hits
450,totally agree with you about keeping pickles away from the TV,pickles panicked when he said his parliament seat was 37 miles away,but then again the bbc and dimblebot knew that,they wanted pickles embarrassment but they did’nt expect him to be that crap with the answer.
@450 (GIN)
Pickles gets flustered way too easily to be on TV. He is simply too nervous and not glib enough to handle the pressure.
I realize the Tories have a frontbench posh surplus but Pickles’ job isn’t to go on TV, it’s to organize fundraising and plan election strategy. He shouldn’t ever be the story. In fact, it’s rather disappointing that he doesn’t know that. He might end up looking as stupid as Michael Steele.
I’ve long been saying Labour must be defeated at any cost. For me, this probably means voting Lib Dem in local elections, and Tory in the Euros and GE. That does not mean I trust the second-tier Tory frontbench at all. Performances like this hardly make me more confident.
Still no sign of Redditch results. A “something for everyone” night so far.
460. I think for once we’ll get the benefits of being a third party and lacking news coverage. The media will be more likely to emphasise Tory/Labour dodginess over ours. Swings and roundabouts etc.
Also even if we’re the same % dodgy that makes a lot less MPs in real terms, and “60 dodgy Labour MPs” sounds bigger than “10 dodgy Lib Dems” (to pull numbers out of the air) even if % wise they’re similar.
461. I think this was a case of needing to engage a sense of humour.
466. To expand to anyone watching, Tim linked to someone who literally had a pickles phobia, not a fantastic joke perhaps, but I have to say I did laugh.
Oh dear,Pickles in the brine?
453 - 570,000 views of the Pickles Pickle now.
This is a massive story. Bigger than Watergate or Hannangate. Why aren’t the BBC reporting it yet? Bias?
Pickles self-identifies as working class.
That must be very comforting for tim.
Its the difficulty of having c4400 principal local authority councillors, having participated in hundreds of local council administrations and having been in power in scotland and for shorter period in wales.
How do you continue to try and appeal as a protest vote opperating outside the political consensus while clearly being in transition towards participating in a three party system ?
I’m not convinced the LD’s will neccesserily do that well out of expenses. all it will take is one dodgy pot plant bill and the other partys will ensure we are in the muck like the rest of them.
It’ll be the Greens and BNP who ( relatively) hoover up in June.
470. What a bummer of a result in Royal Docks ! You must be very proud as its a stunner of a result yet utterly gutted as seeing it slip away.
469,the only massive story is that you sh*t labour govenment has f*cked our country,sorry about the language.
@472:
I feel bad for the people of Newham. They know not what they do.
473 - but I thought the “blogosphere” and people like “Guido” just hated “politicians” and weren’t party political? So surely the Pickles thing will go viral?
575,005 hits now by the way. Still no mention on the BBC.
444/445 - well if they are going to ditch him before the election, be good fellows and do it before the end of June (I think that was the date) so that I win my bet with NPMP…
Two,serious-ish points:
(a)The East End of London has always been susceptible to big swings,and fair’s far,the Tories can take solace in coming as close as they did in said ward
(b)There are still many,many,’working-class’/'White Van Man?Women out there,who despite everything,would still willingly sell their own body before voting Tory-sorry to be so-o brutal but that’s a sweep of mates from said social group
Nurse, Andrew B has gone shocking.
We can only be minutes away from a dirty protest.
475,don’t you worry your little labour heart,I expect the bbc will get the pickles thing in some how.
473. Be calm people, we’re the chilled out late night crew of PB. Relax, make jokes only political anoraks understand and even they probably wouldn’t laugh at.
@477:
How does it differ from say, Millwall Ward in Tower Hamlets, just down the road, solidly working class base, and solidly Tory?
Frankly any white working class folk who believe Labour are on their side are deluded.
475 – Dan Hannan’s youtube speech now at 895,910 views…!
Andrew, you’re making a tit of yourself, now stop squirming and go to bed, you’ll feel better in the morning, dear.
what news from our professional left on the shenanigans of who the Tories are trying to cosy up with in Europe, I’m still not able to sleep most nights until this crucial issue is resolved once and for all?
the pickles display is clearly right up there in newsworthiness with the QT from Feb of McNulty commenting on his ex-bosses housing arrangements…
Off to listen to Hannan again - dont you find just listening to his vent just lowers your own blood pressure too??? Toodles.
477 - your second point is something I’ve said a few times.
In the real world - i.e. not blogs, not the Village, not the columnists - there are millions of hard up people who cringe at the prospect of a Tory government.
478
Andrew b is one big walking dirty protest all on his own
@484:
Well, in just over a year, they’re going to get a free dose of occupational therapy to deal with it.
We’re the party that keeps on giving.
482 - make that 895,911. I just watched it again because it was so good.
Hannan almost dribbled and everything! What a hero. Sigh.
475. Pickles is a politican making a tit of him self. Dog bites man.
Hannan was a zeitgeist embodying 3 minute pop culture event. he said what millions wanted to say quickly, brilliantly and in an easy to understand and view format.
Its chalk and cheese.
Padwan Leaner.
484. One last point, U tube just warming up - the real world you refer to must be confined to the island of Broxtowe as elsewhere the thing people really want is rid of this busted flush PM.
484,they may cringe at the prospect of a tory govenment,but like hell they be voting for labour in large numbers.
Tory voters:
http://www.serienoldies.de/images2/heman_heman1.jpg
Labour voters:
http://www.geocities.com/sshumsuper7fan78/cringer1lg.jpg
Lib Dem voters:
http://media.comicvine.com/uploads/0/77/182982-176418-she-ra_large.jpg
Can the Lib Dems be She-Ra, Princess of Power ?
They will vote Labour because a Labour government helped them and will carry on helping them, and a Tory government would cr*p on them.
Still, Dan Hannan made a great speech! Didn’t he! 1,000,908 hits now! That’s the important thing for people on the streets.
If anyone remembers the “Dad at 13″ thing that had the tabloids in uproar a little while back, he’s apparently not the father.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,510791,00.html
Martin ! We could recreate ESP under laboritory conditions and make a Billion !
or start our own Psy - Cps Corp, fall out and end up like Prof Xavier and Magneto fighting over control of an inner London Council !
What was the bet, scrapheap - I’ve forgotten?
Could this be T.I.M’s true identity?
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/2/28/Philip_Fry.png
486 I’m tired (and for the time of day very sober!),and will give a serious answer:
(a)After an unprecendented 13 years of Labour government,it would be regarded as ‘the swing of the pendulum’ were,as likely as not,Labour to lose.
(b)BUT,after a period in which his own party looked over the abyss to annilihation,if (and it still is ‘if’) Mr.Cameron to win in 2010:
(c)He would stand as very probably the only thing between his success,or failure which would almost inevitably see the new Labour leader ‘bounce back ‘ in 2014/5,and win at least one if not two more election,thus condeming the Tories to another 13 years in opposition.
At the end of this hypothesis,the Tory record would be,since 1997,
Played 7,won 1,lost 6. OUCH!
Not withstanding other domestic/international/geo-political events
The next British GE may prove a very good one to lose.
I do not speak with spite or anger,but look at a wider picture,of all sides aspirations and likely downfalls.
I’m too tired to go on,but will happlily chat tomorrow.Night all
@496:
Our minds were attuned. By the power of Grayskull.
479. Maury can tell Pickles he is not the father.
451. That is directly relevant to the people. It is scandalous that Mrs P had to renounce her Catholicism in order to keep gorgeous hunky Pete in line; also that Princess Anne and her sprogs have to trail in behind Andrew and Edward and theirs.
492. I assume she’s wearing sandals.
It’s always interesting to see the ‘more experienced’ members of pb post about ancient popular culture.
492,lib dem voters,thought you would have put skeletor -dead men walking.
495. We knew that already - it was obvious within about 2 days of the story breaking.
503. Psychokinesis would be the Lib Dem Super Power. However in a cruel twist of fate the radioactive spider than bit them was ” a bit gay” so the powers only applied to filling in pot holes and shift dog poo. they would however have ultrasonic Gaydar.
The bitterness of being able to bend space and time - but only for Dog mess and potholes - is the dark mental flaw that has driven them to prowel the night as a shadowy alter ego
- Sandalman
494,what a load of crap,I live in the inner city and I can tell you andrew,the people think labour have betrayed them.
506. I’m sure Martin would have put invisibility as the Lib Dem superpower.
Perhaps we could compromise by casting us as the Cassandra’s of British politics.
494,they may not vote tory,they may vote lib dem or bnp but I would’nt count people in the inner cities as certain labour voters any more.
I haven’t had chance to see Pickles make a tit of himself, but I don’t doubt he did, I think he is vastly over-rated to be honest.
On to something I have seen, the car crash that is Draper on C4. If having Brown as your figure head is bad enough, if Draper is going to be anywhere near the controls of organising GE campaigning (I assume on the interweb) Labour are going to hemorrhage even more votes.
His statements are ludicrous and offense (but not to the people he is attacking) and clearly shows his mentality and idiotic level of thinking.
By this I mean he claimed Tories “negative, negative, negative” and then quickly said “a deranged speech from a deranged man of a deranged party”. Now not only is that a huge contradiction it is also deeply offense for the large percentage of the near 1 million people who have watched this speech and thought he was bang on the money. Having this nasty little man shout at you from inside the moving picture box while you are eating your tea, that you thought a “deranged man” was bang on the money is not the way to win the argument. It is completely the opposite, it just alienates people, to thinking who is this w####er.
I wonder if Draper is going to bed tonight, in between thinking about if the bailiffs will be round tomorrow, wondering if he gave a good performance on DP and C4?
I suspect he probably does, but most people watching those pieces will have thought the first one, two fat blokes that need to grow up and the second, who is the idiot fat bloke screaming and shouting over the top of Jon Snow (oh and its that bald bloke who socked it to Gordo, I saw that on Youtube!).
Well done Derek, you are the tv media equivalent of TIM Bot and Andrew B(ot) on here, you lose votes for your cause every time you open your mouth and never have anything positive to say.
oracle,I can tell you he was bloody awful.
509 - Just look at Stoke council elections. You can’t get much more of a traditional Labour area, with added negative Thatcher hangover effect (mines, railways, pottery industry all went down the tubes under Thatcher and area never fully recovered), but Labour are starting to get a kicking as people are turning to the BNP.
512,same here in inner city bradford,thousands voted for the bnp in the council elections in the last couple of years.
511 - As I have said I have seen him before on QT and a few other things, he has consistently been c##p. I just can’t bring myself to watch QT now, will all the “celebs” they have on!
The Tories would be better sending him on a tour on the midlands and the north for the next 12 months, as that is where he is actually some use.
As I have said before my roots are in the Crewe area, and people liked him on the doorsteps / streets there. He has the Northern bloke thing down to a tee. From what I understand, in C&N, he was very good at starting the conversations etc, and spoke to a few people who said would never normally talk to those Tories, but…..
514,the bbc and dibblebot knew how far his parliament seat was ,they were out to embarrass him ,but pickles put his foot in it more.
308. No, we’re not talking about the same election, but the same vote share.
The system has moved heavily in Labour’s favour since 1987.
Labour can achieve a historically very poor vote share and still deprive the Tories of a majority.
481. Millwall *isn’t* solidly Tory and while a large chunk of it is solidly working class an equally large and growing part of it is solidly wealthy (the bit that lives behind gates to keep them away from the solidly working class)…
That’s not to say the Tories won’t hold on there because the trends in their favour, but it won’t be because the working class in Tower Hamlets votes Conservative.