Who will be the biggest winners from the Expenses Scandal?
May 10th, 2009
Is now the perfect time to be an anti-establishment politician?
As the expenses row moves into Day 3, Saturday’s polls provided some answers to the question as to its impact on the political parties, as opposed to the individuals who’ve been in the spotlight. They also raised others.
The media narratives easiest to follow are those which focus on a single person or event: a parliamentary vote, an election, an individual’s misconduct or the like. One of the problems of the expenses scandal is the sheer number of people involved, without any one instance of improper behaviour really standing out.
The relentless nature of the revelations, the stream of largely unknown names and the monotony of the defence (“it was within the rules”) surely cannot fail to have an impact on how the political class in general is seen.
Labour have obviously come out of this worst so far because they’ve supplied most of the MP’s whose expense claims have been plastered across the media but it’s noticeable how quiet the Conservatives and Lib Dems have been in their condemnation of the behaviour. Presumably, they don’t have too much confidence about the position of some of their own MP’s either - and while some nationalists have been more vocal in their condemnation, problems may yet arise there where individuals have dual mandates leading to accusations of poor value for money comparing expenses against attendance.
For the Conservatives to make capital may not be too easy in any case. Quite apart from the potential revelations about their own MP’s (or peers), memories of the Sleaze Years in the 1992-7 parliament (which ought to seem quite tame in comparison) will inevitably get dragged into the argument with the net result that the public could well think that “they’re all at it”. Indeed, the polls suggested no further gain for the Conservatives, although they are at historically very high levels already.
The danger if no lead is taken by a Westminster insider against the abuses is that it will be left to those outside the system to spearhead the attack.
In 1997, the charge was led famously by Martin Bell, who unseated Neil Hamilton in his Tatton constituency. This year, the European Parliamentary elections in less than four weeks’ time give the voters much more choice and chance to register protests. The polls would tend to support the idea that minor parties will do well: both had the shares for ‘others’ rising, in the case of BPIX to no less than 15%.
Although there are local elections on the same day, the Euros offer greater scope for protest. For a start, local elections are more immediate and so it’s much easier for voters to see the impact of their votes, for example between a council run by the incumbent party or by a different one, reducing the incentive to use the vote as a protest. By contrast, hardly anyone knows the composition of the European Parliament, what it does or what impact it has. The number of voters who have local elections is also limited whereas the entire country has the chance to vote in the Europeans.
Perhaps even more importantly, because of the party list system, they also have a wide range of options to vote for and the threshold needed to be crossed to get a candidate elected is much lower than it would be under FPTP.
Who might the main beneficiaries be? My guess would be that it will be those outside ‘the club’. So far, if the media have been looking for someone to put the case against the goings on, they’ve not found that person or party. It’s quite possible they’re simply not looking because they’re enjoying the spectacle too much. However, it might also be that the mainstream media is itself too much part of the club - being as it is within the Westminster Village - and so refuses to look outside, partly because to do so would undermine its own privileged position.
That, however, may be a mistake. In the 1989 Euroelections, the Green Party scooped about 15% of the GB vote out of nowhere, something few foresaw. In 2004, it was UKIP who performed spectacularly, beating the Lib Dems into fourth place nationally and taking over 16%. UKIP have had their own problems with expenses and internal discipline in between, though how many of the more than two and a half million who voted for them last time will have noticed is another matter but both that and the reduction in the salience of Europe as a key issue to the public is likely to hit their support in June.
At the last Euroelection, neither main party was particularly popular in the wake of the Iraq War and the Lib Dems suffered from being pro-Europe but not putting the case confidently (so annoying both sides of the debate). The result was three votes in every eight going for parties outside the main three and more than one in two going outside the big two. Should we brace ourselves for something similar? The longer the expenses story runs, the more likely it is that we should.
On thing is for sure, after the polls and the expenses leaks, the 8/11 for Labour to poll less than 20% in the Euros looks increasingly good value. They were polling in the mid- to high-thirties in 2004, yet still only managed 22.6% at the election. Labour is now about ten points worse off in the polls compared to then.
David Herdson
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Splat!
Thurd
In terms of General Election voting intentions, the main winners will be
(1) Stuff the lot of them, stay at home, they’re all as bad as each other
(2) Lib Dems - nice and cuddly, a bit naive, can’t be evil
(3) BNP - enough is enough, lock them up, send them back, we’ll all be blown up
(4) Loal weirdo independent candidates like H’Angus the Monkey or Joanna “Martin Bell” Lumley
According to Mark Senior (whom we all adore: come back Mark! - your fan club needs you!), commenting over at UK Polling Report (Anthony Wells), the Sunday Times also had Euro voting intention numbers. I have failed to find this in their online edition, so would greatly appreciate a link/good old-fashioned confirmation if you have a dead tree copy.
YouGov/Sunday Times
European Parliament voting intention
(+/- YouGov/Tay Payer’s Alliance Jan 2009)
Con 36% (+1)
Lab 25% (-4)
LD 20% (+5)
UKIP 7% (n/c)
BNP 4% (n/c)
Grn 4% (-1)
SNP/PC 4% (n/c)
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2116/comment-page-1#comment-578818
Jan 09 YouGov Euro poll (is this the most recent Euro voting intention poll, for comparison purposes?):
http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/TPA%20results%2009%2001%2008.pdf
That 4% combined SNP + Plaid voting intention finding is tremendous: they only got 2.4% (1.4% + 1.0%) in Euro 2004.
The new thread has arrived just in time for my daily update after getting up to date, so I’m not stuck in a ghetto at the end of a thread like usual
Mike S My money’s on the Tories [in Watford].
The LD are going to find it very hard in tight three way marginals like this one.
I disagree - a three-way marginal is where disgruntled lefty voters can swing to the Lib Dems and kick out Labour without worrying about a split vote, and without having to vote for the wicked evil Tory.
Jack W Don’t bet on the Tory in a three way marginal where they are in third place !!
Never in modern political history have they won the seat !!
Lincoln 1979 (does that count as “modern”?)
MadJackMcMad wrote I would prefer there to be an age limit on all MPs being 35 years and over. Having people like Sarah Teather, who have become MPs at such a young age does not fill me with confidence when they are making decisions on behalf of the people.
This type of suggestion is always depressing and confuzzling to me. Having MPs who are too young or too ineperienced would only become a problem if most of them were, not if only a few of them were. It’s a bit like the argument that people shouldn’t be allowed to be gay because if everybody were gay then nobody would reproduce and the human race would become extinct.
It is always skankerous and grobilsky when ill-informed narrow-minded people write letters to local newspapers to suggest that people should only be allowed to stand for parliament if they have (for example) had 10 years’ experience of running a company, or 5 years’ experience of being in the army, or 4 years’ experience as a local councillor, or that they shouldn’t be paid, or that they should pass some sort of written exam on constitutional law or whatever (all of those are ideas which I have read or heard of at some time). It would be a bit like the Iranian College of Guardians which weeds out most of the candidates and would leave the voters in each constituency with 2 or 3 sturdy middle-aged yeomen instead of 6 or 7 varied human beings.
After watching “Question Time” the other day - with its mindbogglingly dimwitted pro-Labour pro-DNA-database audience - I am thinking that the next GE might be a bit like 1979, with a much more favourable result for Labour in Scotland than a uniform swing would suggest. Perhaps only 2 or 3 SNP gains, 2 or 3 Con gains, 1 or 2 Lib Dem gains, and loads of Labour holds with split votes and small(ish) majorities.
7. P.S. Unless of course the QT audience is not endorsed by the rigorous methods of the British Polling Council (or whatever it’s called) …
Considering the YouGov figures:
Con 43 Lab 27 Others 30
Compared with the GE2005 figures:
Con 32.3 Lab 35.2 Others 32.5
If one adjusts the GE2005 figures to allow for it being GB rather than UK, and doing a bit of arbitrary fiddling, one gets:
Con 34 Lab 36 Others 30
Which means that the net change is a straight swing of 9% from Lab to Con… in other words, exactly a quarter of Labour votes switch direct to Conservative, ceteris paribus.
As a rough-and-ready guide, what that means is that Labour hold a seat only if the GE2005 Labour vote was more than twice as much as the Conservative vote.
For example, a constituency which voted
Lab 20,000 Con 10,000 LD 5,000 Others 2,000
would swing to
Lab 15,000 Con 15,000 LD 5,000 Others 2,000.
It’s not very scientific, but I find that this method is a useful bit of fun for imagining what landslide scenarios would be like at the next GE.
From Con Home: Tory MP John Gummer claiming to have moles removed from his land.
Ha ha ha! At first I read that as “…from his head”
Quote of the day - D’Ancona on the Green Book:
“A daisy chain of loopholes.”
Parliament resembles a momento mori of a grinning skull with worms peeking out of the eye sockets.
Yet more results from that SNP/YouGov poll whose topline results were published 3 (?) weeks ago. The SNP have been dripping out the findings a little bit at a time.
Asked to chose from words or statements for each of the following parties:
“Which, if any, do you think describes their leading politicians?”
“Stand up for Scotland’s interests”
Con 6%
Lab 10%
LD 9%
SNP 50%
Amongst those who most associated the SNP with Standing up for Scotland’s interests were 45% of Conservative voters, 41% of Labour voters, and 63% of Liberal Democrat voters.
http://www.snp.org/node/15268
http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/SNP-April09.pdf
marcia wrote I am not sure how this D’Holdt system works. I wish they went back to seats.
Seats? They still have seats under the D’Hondt system (presumably you mean single-member constituencies). But anyway, here is an explanation which I prepared earlier:
———-
( Unfortunately, when people (or newspapers, or websites) explain how d’Hondt divisors work, they often describe it in terms of “divide by one more than the number of seats already won”, or in terms of dividing the number of votes each time after a seat has been allocated. )
If you are not fully familiar with it and used to it, it is much easier to do all the divisions first, and then allocate seats afterwards. For example, here is the result for the South East region in 2004, which had 10 seats:
1. Write down the parties along the top, and the number of votes for each party
http://i33.tinypic.com/20u7ugw.jpg
2. Write down the numbers 1,2,3,4,5 and so on down the side of the paper
3. Divide the number of votes at the top of the column by the number at the left hand side
http://i35.tinypic.com/2dbqfjo.jpg
4. Cross off the highest number in the table to allocate the first seat
(in this case, the Conservative Party)
http://i34.tinypic.com/5×7815.jpg
5. Cross off the next highest number to allocate the 2nd seat
(in this case, the UKIP)
http://i35.tinypic.com/31340sg.jpg
6. Continue crossing off the highest numbers until all the seats have been allocated
http://i37.tinypic.com/2d9z3bp.jpg
Thusly, if there had been 11 seats instead of 10, the Conservative party would have won a 5th seat; if there had only been 9, the Lib Dems would only have 1 seat instead of 2.
The highest number which hasn’t been crossed out is 155,274, and the lowest number which has been crossed out is 169,171. So it could be said that about 160,000 is the quota, or the threshold of votes, needed for each seat to be elected. When you have got used to it and used it a few times, it is sometimes fairly easy to guesstimate the quota and work out the number of seats for each party without necessarily having to do the full divisions each time. For example, the result in Wales (with a total of 4 seats) in 2004 was
Lab 297,810
Con 177,771
PC 159,888
UKIP 96,667
LD 96,116
The fact that there are 4 seats available means that it is easy to spot immediately that the quota is about 100,000 votes, and that the seats will be Lab 2, Con 1, PC 1, UKIP 0 and LD 0.
3. JohnLoony - “In terms of General Election voting intentions, the main winners will be… (3) BNP”
Mmmm… not according to YouGov’s Euro findings there John. According to YouGov, BNP support is totally static vis à vis what they got 5 years ago at Euro 2004, ie. 4%.
In terms of the European elections, the biggest winners will be… er… I’m not sure. It will probably just remind the voters of the huge gravy train which MEPs are on anyway. Perhasp the UKIP and the BNP; perhaps the abstention option. I don’t think there will be any significant traction or recognition or impact or benefit for the Jury Team or Libertas, which will be lucky to get 1% between them.
JohnLoony
As always a incise assessment of the previous threads but did you not read the above article?
This is it - your call to arms, your raison d’etre. You are David Herdson’s antiestablishment candidate.
Vote Loony - he only claim expenses when they are a Fibonacci number
‘Cameron: Tories will co-operate with SNP’
Last night Cameron said: “I think we can make devolution work better. We’ve seen in the last year very fractious relations between the Prime Minister and the First Minister, between Westminster and Holyrood. It doesn’t have to be like that. We need mutual respect and a politics which is about discussion and delivery rather than about confrontation and grievance. There are some institutional stresses and pressures that devolution brings and we have to acknowledge that and confront that, but also there’s the egos of politicians. We need politicians to recognise that they have to work together and no one is going to thank them for grievance and confrontation rather than discussion and debate.”
He added: “To me the most important thing is keeping the United Kingdom together and I don’t like the Scottish Nationalist plans to break it up. But I will be fully engaged with that bit of Alex Salmond’s brain that wants to do the best thing for Scotland rather than break up the United Kingdom.”
Earlier this year, Scotland on Sunday revealed that SNP ministers and Tory shadow ministers have already begun talks to discuss their potential roles, with discussions taking place between Scottish Finance Secretary John Swinney and Osborne.
A “respect” agenda is now being discussed by Cameron’s close aides. Three of his close allies – shadow education secretary Michael Gove, leader of the House of Lords, Lord Strathclyde, and shadow defence secretary Liam Fox – are Scots.
http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Cameron-Tories-will-cooperate-with.5251861.jp
14. Perhaps it takes time for the impact to work on voting intentions? Maybe people think it’s a Labour sleaze issue, and it will take another few days for them to realise that it’s also a Conservative issue (if indeed it is one). It would only be an extra 1% or 2% for the BNP anyway, but it might take until the next opinion poll to show up.
18. Wow! I managed to edit a message successfully! Until now it has always told me that I wasn’t allowed to! I managed to change “perhasp” to “perhaps”.
16. Vote Loony - he only claim expenses when they are a Fibonacci number
Ha ha ha! Perhaps I’ll put that in my next manifesto
The winners may be the party hierarchies if current scandals are used — as seems to be the case in the Conservative Party, and where New Labour will surely follow — to empower the leader to deselect PPCs and even MPs.
It will further advance the new political class of public school and Oxbridge professional politicians who value managerialism over ideology and whose only certainty is that they really are better than us. And that’s just the Labour Party.
Just added a new link in the side-bar
The Political Composition of Local Councils
‘David Cameron promises closer links with Holyrood’
The Tory leader will tell the party’s Scottish conference in Perth this week that the “fractious” relationship between the Labour UK government and devolved SNP administration is playing into the hands of the nationalists.
He will announce that a future Conservative chancellor would be required to offer to appear before the Scottish parliament to be grilled about the budget and the pre-budget report’s implications for Scotland.
Meanwhile, the SNP claimed that the Labour government had further undermined the relationship with Holyrood by refusing a Scottish minister’s request to attend a meeting of the EU council of ministers as part of the UK delegation.
It claimed it was the first time since the devolution began in 1999 that a request by a Scottish minister to join such a delegation had been rejected.
Michael Russell, the minister for culture and external affairs, had planned to attend the meeting of the education, youth and culture council in Brussels, which starts on Monday, to help maximise the contribution the creative sector can make to economic recovery in Scotland. But his request was refused by Andy Burnham, the Westminster culture secretary.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6256801.ece
re 21. I think that’s a very good point John and was planning to do a thread on it.
FPT, I thought that SSI’s pastiche of “Money for Nothing” was hilarious.
While I wouldn’t disagree with Ian Dale’s description of James Gray, I don’t think his behaviour actually justifies removal of the whip. Or if it did, Cameron would only be left with about half his MPs.
WRT the Euros, I doubt if in practice, the big three will get anything like 81% between them, so one can probably expect the Greens, UKIP, and BNP to poll higher shares than the poll gives them.
Sunday Telegraph leader backtracking a bit, saying there was “never any question of impropriety by Gordon Brown” (re:cleaning). Perhaps their sister paper should have made that clearer on Thursday…
Is Caroline Flint making a bid?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/gallery/2009/may/10/fashion-caroline-flint?picture=346969483
Tim Walker on Sky newspaper review: DT will start on Tories but it “is frankly less interesting”.
‘If I become Prime Minister here’s how I’ll make devolution work better’
- David Cameron writes for the Sunday Herald
“On the positive side, a devolved parliament has become an established part of Scottish politics and society, and we do not want to change that.
We back devolution and we want to make it work better for Scotland.
During the Budget negotiations, Annabel Goldie’s unstinting leadership secured a package worth over £230 million for the benefit of Scotland’s businesses and families.
It beggars belief that during the worst recession in living memory, in which 200 Scots are losing their jobs every day, it took almost a year for Gordon Brown and Alex Salmond to get together and talk. Part of the reason for this mutual snub lies in personal animosity.
It doesn’t have to be like this. I’ve said that if I become prime minister one of the first things I would do is come to Scotland and meet with the first minister and see how we can work together to build a better future for you.
Whoever is Scotland’s first minister, I will be a prime minister who listens and responds to the voice of the Scottish people.
To make Britain a better place we will need the best of all corners of our UK - and that includes Scotland’s great universities, its potential for renewable energy and its armed forces.”
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2507197.0.if_i_become_prime_minister_heres_how_ill_make_devolution_work_better.php
Oh dear. Blackouts back on again…
2 threads ago, jsfl said:
- “Yougov Detail
The Conservatives are beating Labour in all regions including Scotland - second to the SNP (all caveats apply). That is a first!”
… and:
- “Others Breakdown:
SNP/PC 3 (SNP 29% in Scotland)
BNP 3
UKIP 3
Green 2″
… and:
- “… the regional figures for Scotland (all caveats apply) are
SNP 29 Con 29 Lab 28″
Can I just ask jsfl (or anybody else), where are you getting these numbers from? I cannot find the datasheets yet over at YouGov’s published results (they usually don’t come out for a couple of days).
http://www.yougov.co.uk/corporate/archives/press-archives-pol-Main.asp?dID=2009
WOW!!!
marcia from 2 threads ago:
the [Scottish] breakdown for the Euro’s has (usual caveats)
Tory 23
Labour 25
LD 8
SNP 37
UKIP 1
Green 1
BNP 1
SSP 2
Other 2
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/05/09/tonights-polling-news-developing/#comment-1047772
Michty Me! Help ma boab!
SNP at 37%, with only 4 weeks to go before Euro Polling Day!!
That is +17 points, compared with Euro 2004.
29 Stuart - the YouGov European poll turns up in the YouGov results - clicked link and xls file was downloaded with them in.
click on the “Exclusive read the results in full” link on the front page under heading “Brown set for election wipeout”
Very difficult to tell. Such a scattergun that it’ll take a week or so before we see the damage. I reckon from what we know so far Labour will lose at least 5 from the Cabinet a dozen or so will face deselection and 3 or 4 will face prosecution.
After The Telegraphs retraction Brown will possibly hang on though I don’t know why. It can’t be fun.
To put it into context - Nick Cohen at the Observer:
“where else on the planet, after all, could you find an immigration minister threatening to sue the press for alleging he claimed a £1.19 packet of tampons for his wife on expenses?”
Pollsters and betting sites are whistling in the dark at the moment.
Members of both Houses would be well advised to take some free advice:
MPs’ expenses: the legal view - Vincent Coughlin QC, fraud specialist
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6257203.ece
“The criminal charges out there, carrying a maximum ten-year prison term, are to be found in the Fraud Act 2006 which covers fraud by false representation, by failing to disclose information and by abuse of position.
“At the heart of each fraud is the concept of making a gain for oneself or another, with the critical element of dishonesty, usually determined by a jury which must first of all decide whether according to the ordinary standards of reasonable and honest people what was done was dishonest, and if it was, whether the defendant must have realised that what he was doing by those standards was dishonest.”
It is quite delicious that this legislation was introduced by THIS Parliament.
32.
Using the d’Hondt calculator, that would give a Scottish Euro result of:
SNP 3 MEPs (+1)
Lab 2 MEPs (n/c)
Con 1 MEP (-1)
LD 0 MEPs (-1)
Note: Scotland only gets 6 MEPs this time (-1 MEP).
33. Ted, you’re a star!
Here is the link:
http://extras.timesonline.co.uk/results0905.xls
34 Thing is that if they had really wanted to go from Brown his other expense claims, while “within the rules” don’t make pretty reading. The second home moves certainly indicate wanting to get the most out of it.
Agree though on there being little reason for Brown to actually want to stay on - need to prove he isn’t a failure perhaps? Maybe he really does believe the trampoline recovery will occur and his “stable” economy will return so he can go back to big spending announcements etc.?
On Telegraph, Brogan certainly seems to be moving the Telegraph political team direction away from what was its preponderant mix of Brownian support from Porter and co on one side and the Heffer/Warner UKIP anti-Cameron clique on the other with ill informed Kite/Prince “exclusives” providing comedy relief. Think he might just give it an overall “voice” which is Tory if less than full on Cameroon.
OK then, so the YouGov/Sunday Times Scottish sub-sample (usual caveats apply) for Westminster voting intention is:
(+/- UK GE 2005)
Con 29% (+13)
SNP 29% (+11)
Lab 28% (-11)
LD 10% (-13)
UKIP 1% (+1)
BNP 0% (n/c)
Grn 0% (-1)
oth 2%
http://extras.timesonline.co.uk/results0905.xls
from 2 threads ago, marcia said:
- “for those of you with long memories the last time the Tories were ahead of Labour in a Scottish Opinion poll was in September 1977. The Systems 3 poll had Tory 32 Lab 31 SNP 28 Lib 6 SLP 2.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/05/09/tonights-polling-news-developing/#comment-1047854
36 - Don’t the revealed expenses apply to the period 2004-6? (ie. before the Fraud Act was enacted)
40. On those numbers, Baxter gives Scottish Westminster seat distribution:
Lab 25 seats (-15 seats)
Con 16 seats (+15)
SNP 12 seats (+6)
LD 5 seats (-6)
Speaker 1 seat (n/c)
26, 28 - The problem with a paper like the Telegraph making these revelations is that it has a very clear political agenda. It is a shame that The Times did not get its hands on all of this as I would trust it to be far less partisan in its reporting.
35 - The very fact that it is such a small amount of money, that the minister is male and that the claim was for his wife is the issue. Therefore, if the Telegraph is wrong it has created an entirely false impression and has probably materially damaged Woolas’s reputation. That may well be actionable.
It seems to me that when reporting this kind of topic - one which quite rightly attracts a great deal of attention and generates outrage - their is a heightened duty of cre to ensure that what you say is correct. If the Telegraph has failed in this respect it should be held to account.
Alex - an example from the Telegraph:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5301765/MPs-expenses-Kevin-Brennan-had-450-for-television-delivered-to-family-home.html
“When he (Mr Kevin Brennan, the charities minister,) moved out of the house in Brent, north London, in July 2007 and bought a new flat a 10-minute walk from the House of Commons, the minister put the £10,200 stamp duty fees on his taxpayer-funded allowance, and began claiming mortgage interest payments of £1,531.59 a month.”
So I suspect the answer to your question is “no”.
Baxter gives Scottish Tory gains as:
from Labour:
- Aberdeen South
- Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
- Ayrshire Central
- Dumfries and Galloway
- East Lothian
- Edinburgh North and Leith
- Edinburgh South (Nigel Griffiths)
- Edinburgh South West (Alistair Darling)
- Renfrewshire East (Jim Murphy)
- Stirling
from Lib Dems:
- Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine
- Argyll and Bute
- Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
- Dunbartonshire East
- Gordon
Is it only me but the Sunday Telegraph “revelations” seem a bit of damp squib. Couldn’t they afford to buy any more or is the Daily Telegraph hogging the best bits?
Given Balls and Brown’s history of dodgy finance - Smith Institute as Brown’s personal “charity”, Balls £100k for Smith Institute research in the gap between being a SPAD and MP, its strange that thus far so little has come out about them.
Is their real skill, keeping their dealings secret?
45 - So does the Conservatives getting 15 seats aid or hinder the cause of Scottish Independence?
YouGov/Sunday Times
Westminster voting intention
London
Con 39%
Lab 33%
LD 19%
BNP 3%
Grn 3%
UKIP 2%
Respect 0%
oth 1%
Rest of South England
Con 51%
LD 22%
Lab 19%
UKIP 4%
Grn 2%
BNP 1%
Respect 0%
oth 1%
46 - Maybe MPs overall are just more honest than the impression created, and all the “interesting” things have already been revealed…
43 Not clear what the Telegraph’s political agenda is/was. Its editorial line has often been stridently anti-Cameron but from a neo-Thatcherite stance, while at same time pro-Brown as a serious politician with a strong moral compass.
It’s Editor notoriously leapt to his feet to applaud Gordon Brown at 2007 conference, Andrew Porter is/was a very good mate of McBrides.
If Woolas or others do have evidence that actionable let them use it. Daily Telegraph yesterday was surprisingly robust in its response to Mr Woolas’s complaint.
Unfortunately I think that the BNP might do better than the polls predict. People may be reluctant to tell someone else who they are intending to vote for, but in the privacy of the polling booth…
46 Icarus - any comment/thoughts on the Lord Rennard story in the NoW?
45. Theres no chance in reality of them getting all those surely.
I think the Telegraph missed a trick with its headlines this morning. Either most people wont much care or it’ll be put down to a ’sacrifice for peace’. Interesting that this was something considered important enough by the Shinners to be included..or else it was just offered.
It used to be said that Gerry Adams who used to list his career as a ‘barman’, was the richest man in Ireland in the bar profession. You can see why…
I’ve noticed a few people saying that we’ll have to wait until next week’s/month’s polls to see the effect of the latest story or scandal, as current polling was done before or during the current one.
At the moment though, its just one scandal after another. If it carries on like this, there wont be a fully settled period in the run up to the GE. Even the Summer recess might continue to be volatile as all these supposed leadership candidates go back to their constituencies to consider their prospects.
If Blears, Woolas, Moran et al think the Telegraph has got it wrong, the solution is easy. Pop in to see the editor, sit down over a cup of tea and a chocolate digestive and explain, simply and clearly, the facts of the case. Being reasonable people, they can then agree to release the unvarnished truth.
The “threat” - usually unrealised - of legal action is the second resort of the guilty - the first being outright denial.
56 - As when the Tory MP - whose name I have forgotten - threated McBride and Co with legal action. Was she guilty too, do you think?
I am not defending the MPs who seem to have had their noses t the trough. But the Telegraph has a duty of care to report such an explosive story responsibly and not to seek to make party politcal capital from it or to spin it in a certain way.
48 - That’s the big question, isn’t it? In the end, whether the SNP wins more seats or not is pretty irrelevant. If it continues to win elections within the context of Scotland being part of the UK, ultimately it has failed.
54. Yokel - “Theres no chance in reality of them getting all those surely.”
Of course not. It’s “just a bit of fun”.
But, just half of them would be a stunningly tremendous victory for Goldie and Co. N’est ce pas?
Personally, I just cannot wait to see the look on Jim Murphy’s fizzog at the Renf E declaration. Jeepers, I’m getting all excited just thinking about it:
Express headline the following day: ‘SKELETOR MEETS DEATH’
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skeletor
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/multimedia/archive/01370/jim-murphy_1370602c.jpg
I’ve been wondering about the slightly unpredictable order in which the Telegraph has been choosing to print the stories. In particular the fact that certain prominent Ministers are neither on the “good” list not the “bad list”. Perhaps this is just a question of timing - but one can’t help wondering whether the apparent switch to Sinn Fein is a result of the duty judge having an unusually long queue at 2pm yesterday.
But given that in recent months the High Court has been known to injunct the publication of stories and to include the existence of the injunction itself within the scope of material which cannot be published perhaps some members are succeeding in their discussions with Lawyers whilst others appear to be just bleating about it? Time will tell.
55 - Labour is heading for a crushing defeat. That will not chnage under any circumstances. It would be far better for them and for the country if we got it over with sooner rather than later.
Hmmm I’ve often had trouble with moles, getting a Jack Russell, (dog not person) to urinate around the molehills normally does the trick.
Leaked letters also suggested that parliamentary officials became concerned that Gummer was not producing receipts to justify his claims, prompting him to forward a number of almost identical statements from gardeners, cleaners and others.
Hmmm he couldn’t have written them himself could he? an officer and a gentleman, certainly not!
44. “When he (Mr Kevin Brennan, the charities minister,) moved out of the house in Brent, north London, in July 2007 and bought a new flat a 10-minute walk from the House of Commons, the minister put the £10,200 stamp duty fees on his taxpayer-funded allowance, and began claiming mortgage interest payments of £1,531.59 a month.”
Obviously charity begins at home
Peter Mandelson getting a kicking;
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/may/10/gordon-brown-mps-expenses
and Andrew Rawnsley delivering one.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/may/10/andrew-rawnsley-mps-expenses
62 ‘Hmmm he couldn’t have written them himself could he? an officer and a gentleman, certainly not!’
Why not? They’re all at it!
YouGov/Sunday Times
Westminster voting intention
North of England
Con 38%
Lab 29%
LD 22%
BNP 4%
UKIP 3%
Grn 1%
Respect 0%
oth 1%
English Midlands and Wales
Con 46%
Lab 31%
LD 11%
BNP 4%
PC 3%
Grn 1%
UKIP 1%
Respect 0%
oth 1%
60 I agree. It is remarkable that not a single mention has been made of cooper-balls since the story broke
Another classic Brown photo:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5g-SBWvVO1I9LiCN1N19nNdq1ElWg
Guido now has a musical offering on the expenses.
The first Minister who owns up that he or she is going to pay up the appropriate council tax, stamp duty or capital gains tax under the same rules as for the rest of us could benefit,
One wonders if there is any parallel with the decline of Gordon Brown’s Labour Party and the DC in Italy with the rise of other parties. Cue for comments from Andrea?
d’Ancona in the ST, as he seen the evidence?
The Telegraph’s remarkable investigative series continues this week and senior Tories are bracing themselves, with good reason, for political damage and personal humiliation.
The next GE could see an awful lot of independents elected.
‘English Parliament twice as popular as Gordon Brown’
http://www.thecep.org.uk/wordpress/2009/05/08/an-english-parliament-twice-as-popular-as-gordon-brown/
I think I’ll go and live in Italy, they do corruption in style there.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article6257035.ece
A bit better than claiming for second homes.
The Telegraph has days more revelations to come…opinion polls dire for Labour…Joanna Lumley running the country…Euro and local elections in three and a half weeks…a general election in a year’s time.
So what does Gordon Brown do to get Labour out of this mess, at least as far as MPs expenses are concerned. Something drastic needs to be done, and quickly, along the following lines:
-Suspend all payments under the seond homes scheme.
-Revise or eliminate said scheme in one way or another before further payments are made.
-Invite in the police and HMRC to investigate fraud and tax evasion/avoidance by certain MPs (the worest cases in financial terms).
In my view, Brown is in too weak a position to take these sorts of actions, and this cancer will continue to do untold damage the British body politic.
40. Obviously that is just a sub sample but the Scots Tories are starting to score in the 20%’s in those nearly all the time now. The Euro figures are interesting too, that suggests that if Labour’s turnout really tanks then the Tories could sneak second place.
I still think that they will get a maximum of 5 seats at Westminster with another 2-3 possible depending on how the votes break, still it means for the first time since 1987 the question about the Scottish Tories will be “How many will they win?” and not “Will they win any?!”
I see the Labour herd(Coldstone, Roger, Southam Observer, wheres tim?) are trying to spread the blame evenly this morning(Labour line no 3. If you get caught doing something, claim they are all at it)
Two problems:-
1) 80% of the dodgy claims are by Labour MPs, so there is no equivalence, and
2) Labour has been in power for 12 years and could have cleaned this up at any time.
Betfair - Party Seats Line
Con 354.5 - 356.5
Lab 215 - 218
LD 51 - 55
SNP 13.5 - 14.5
PC 4 - 4.5
DUP 5.5 - 7.5
75 - As far as i can make out Roger has all but deserted the Labour Party, so i think you are being rather unfair there.
SkyBet - Manchester Withington
Lab 5/6
LD 5/6
Con 25/1
73 Brown can’t do any of those things - MPs pay is a matter for MPs, not the PM - he can make demands (witness youtube) but his word is not law.
He needs to beg Cameron and Clegg to go in on some solution with him and they then all convince their MPs to go along and vote it through.
The price will be that Cameron/Clegg will take 90% of the credit with Brown tagging along, broken and lame as a duck ever was.
As it should be. Has there ever been a worse PM?
70. The question is which ones? Are DC and GO in the firing line? If so, things could get very complicated in next few weeks. Tempted to look to bail out of some of my bets on basis that most prices simply can’t be judged in value terms at the moment (beyond laying the incumbent in marginals, which seems about the only certainly coming out of the current mess).
79, I really hope you meant ‘beg’ there. The alternative is simply too horrid to contemplate.
Argh, you edited it! You big rotten cheat
81 duly edited!
74. The Watcher - “I still think that [the Scots Tories] will get a maximum of 5 seats at Westminster with another 2-3 possible depending on how the votes break… “
Looks about right.
75
In answer to 2, you’re quite right, Labour should have cleared this up, and its only right they should get the bulk of the blame.
In answer to 1, until we see all of the evidence, we don’t know whose done what.
I refer you to the d’Ancona quote in 70, he may have had a preview.
For those of us who think that Jackieboots is lacking in judgement, t’Grauniad implies that she is running off to Sue Grabbit and Runne.
“Graham’s comments brought an immediate reaction from Smith. Her spokesman said that the home secretary would be seeking legal advice about what he had said. “This is a malicious falsehood, and implies that Jacqui is lying. He seems intent on attacking her without examining the facts of the case,” the spokesman insisted.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/may/10/mps-expenses-jacqui-smith
Weird. Just checking the Spanish GP odds (even though I’m not betting in-race) and Massa’s 10/1 with Barrichello 12/1. Barrichello starts 3rd, Massa 4th, and Barrichello’s been excellent so far on the circuit.
Massa should overtake a few people on the start due to his KERS, but I’m not sure it’ll be enough for him to win.
All green (just about) but if I were inclined to bet I’d back Massa, hope he gets a decent start and then lay him.
Ladbrokes - Next General Election: Scottish Conservative Seats
4-6 seats 5/4
0-3 seats 6/4
7 or more seats 3/1
Interesting that Marr opened his show mentioning terrible opinion polls for Labour.
86 - Barrichello is light, Massa is heavy, Massa was quick in first two qualifying sessions.
Oh, and Barrichello never wins.
Victor Chandler - Edinburgh SW (Alistair Darling)
Labour 4/9
Conservatives 5/2
Lib Dems 14/1
SNP 18/1
84 somewhere upthread, according to Sky the Telegraph have not gone big on the Tories as their expenses claims aren’t very interesting.
End of the equivalence line Coldstone.
Victor Chandler - Broxtowe (NPMP)
Conservatives 2/9
Labour 11/4
Lib Dems 100/1
75 - Clearly you did not read my post at 61.
90 - SNP a good bet?
Paddy Power - Bedford
Con 1/2
Lab 13/8
LD 25/1
91
Really, perhaps being the Telegraph, they’ve done a deal with their Tory friends, ‘not’ to publish them: thats just as likely to be the truth.
91 - Says who, though? A Tory supporting newspaper says that Tory claims are not as interesting. Shouldn’t we be the judges of that?
You do not have to be a Labour apologist to see that party political reporting of this issue skews the debate.
89, damn I forgot to look again at the weights (I did check them yesterday).
Damnit. Now I really want to bet on Massa…
96/7 - Would be a bit pointless though, since everything is supposed to be published in some form by July.
94. alex
Only if you are comfortable with a high risk flutter. But yes: SNP priced at 18/1 for Edin SW looks pretty good value. 10/1 would be about right IMHO.
97, Tory-supporting? They tried to spike the McBride story and broke a non-disclosure agreement with Guido over it.
Paddy Power - Brighton Pavillion
Labour evens
Conservatives 13/8
Greens 4/1
Liberal Democrats 25/1
Ted 53 - Sorry hadn’t seen the Lord Rennard piece until you pointed it out -After brief skim though - Sunday mornings Skype to Australia, B’fast, etc. are a bit busy - it looks terrible. Have no idea why Lords of any colour should have any help with housing.
Paddy Power - Dunfermline & West Fife
Liberal Democrats 5/6
Labour 13/8
SNP 6/1
Conservatives 80/1
96, 97 Don’t be silly everyone knows the Telegraph is no fan of Cameron.
103 - Why not? Unless you believe all Lords are extremely wealthy. Or that they should be forced to live in London.
Paddy Power - Coventry South
Labour 8/11
Conservatives evens
Liberal Democrats 80/1
91 The Gummer story:-
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1179995/MPs-Expenses-John-Gummer-claimed-36-000-gardening-mole-hunting-estate.html
is on the Mail website, is it on the Telegraph/ST website? I can’t find it! If not why not?
The Mail has been pretty evenhanded when it comes to, ‘fiddling’ one has to say.
Paddy Power - Edinburgh South (Nigel Griffiths)
Conservatives 11/8
Liberal Democrats 11/8
Labour 4/1
SNP 20/1
75. “1) 80% of the dodgy claims are by Labour MPs, so there is no equivalence, and
2) Labour has been in power for 12 years and could have cleaned this up at any time”.
1. Do we know this? As I understand it we so far only know about Labour.
2. The point about these claims is that they ARE dodgy. You shouldn’t need tighter regulation to stop honest people abusing the system.
Paddy Power - Lancaster & Fleetwood
Conservatives 4/6
Labour evens
Greens 66/1
Liberal Democrats 100/1
The Telegraph is trying to extract itself from the McBride mess and reconnect with its traditional readership. With McBride gone, they have no reason to be sympathetic to Labour (no inside sources for stories). They are obviously going to report this with an anti-Labour stance.
That does not exclude the possibility that this is just an anti-Labour story. Just because there are few massively juicy stories about leading Tories to date, doesn’t mean they exist.
101 and 105 - The Telegraph is, was and always will be a Tory newspaper. It is ridiculous to claim otherwise. Whether it is fully supportive of Cameron is a side issue - it would much prefer a Tory government in power than a Labour one. End of story.
Who are the numpties or harpies with Marr?
114 Jane Moore (journo) and Caroline Lucas (Green Leader)
108 Yes because Grdon Brown’s friend Dacre is the editor
Can we not bring private prosecutions against the worst offenders?
The victim in these crimes is the taxpayer.
If you steal from a shop, the shop can bring a private prosecution. If you steal from us, surely we can bring a private prosecution?
Green Party - scrapping the barrel by the sound of it. Are members of the Cabinet spending more time this weekend with their accountants and lawyers?
Ugh. Have backed Massa. If he goes off at the first corner I’ll not be amused.
Another Budget triumph
116
The editor of the MoS is Peter Wright, I don’t believe he’s a friend of GB.
Facts!
120, at least they haven’t had to amend or reverse every tax change they announced from the last Budget.
The YouGov Euro figures compared with the last Euros show these changes:
Con 36% +9
Lab 25% +2
LD 20% +5
UKIP 7% -9
BNP 4% -1
Grn 4% -2
SNP/PC 4% +1
Others 0 -3
Two caveats: (a) numerous minor parties stand at the Euros: they simply don’t figure in the poll, presumably as YouGov hasn’t bothered to list them on-screen (b) the Euro question followed the general voting intention, and the ‘halo effect’ of surveys (the tendency for answers to questions to influence the answers to the next questions) will have nudged people into responding similarly. In combination, I’d think the minor parties will do better and the big parties worse than these figures suggest.
However, some interesting points:
- Labour has a fair chance of improving on its score last time. It was dire then, but the narrative (’Labour recovers some ground’) is important too. The Labour<20% bet looks a long shot.
- On the other hand the LibDems seem to have a faint chance shot at 2nd place. That would have narrative implications too.
- The widespread belief that the BNP stands to do splendidly is not supported by the poll. UKIP, despite being virtually non-existent in most places these days, still does better because of the label on the tin. If you’re anti-EU rather than anti-immigrant, it’s clearest to vote UKIP, not BNP, and in an EU election it’s more obviously relevant.
96 Blues under the bed Coldstone? The Telegraph’s pretty anti-Cameron. They tried to spike the McBride revelations, and have been very pro Brown recently.
A quick note on BPIX:
Although they aren’t members of the BPC (which is a concern), they do seem to be run by the same people that produce the respected British Election Survey at Essex University. I have seen them referred to as “the polling arm of the BES”.
So it would probably be unwise to dismiss them, but I would also be far happier if they were as transparent as the others.
Morning All,
Terrific article by the way. Several things stood out.
1. That Euro poll looks a little weird/exciting for the LD’s. We consistantly poll lowest in Euro elections so for a credible national pollster to have us *above* the national rating is terrific/a rouge. I’ve just had a look at the national campaign pack on the gurkhas which is a bit soft focus but terrific. One of the best I have seen. Utterly shameless as it has nothing to do with brussels but i think target mailing drapped in the fragrant Ms Lumley could garner a lot of soft liberals who might not usually vote. Who nows ? I’m sticking to my guns that if we can only get 15% in the Iraq election then we’ll decline this time by about a point or two but we’ll see
2. Link to the Rennard story ?
125, transparency would be nice, but I agree with you that accuracy matters more from a polling firm.
193 to go before 2^20
BNP less than last time? Yeah, right.
Big winner will be the Greens. ALL the establishment including BNP and UKIP look pretty stale. The girl from the Greens looks like she’s out of a Persil ad.
113
I read the Telegraph.
Its editorials have been largely supportive of Blair and Brown.. and its column writers 75% critical of Cameron as a Leader and the Tories as a Party for having “no policies”…
Their support of Conservatism is of a form which exists in the heads of UKIP and John Redwood… and is unelectable….
So, Labour ministers and MPs fiddle, lie and cheat and their exposure is all the fault of a biased Tory press?
Any news yet on James Grays fate?
124
I don’t know whats been going on behind locked doors, I don’t know what: armtwisting, threats and promises are being made, to the Telegraph by politicians of all parties, and neither do you?
123
Nick, I do hope your taking all this to heart, a quick perusal of those Labour MP’s who aren’t, (there must be some) ’stretching’ the system, Alan Johnson seems to be Mr Clean. A delegation to GB, a suggestion that a holiday, ’stress y’know’ might be in order.
Then the Macmillan solution, it won’t save you, but there might be some ‘damage limitation’ at the next GE.
121 Would that be the Peter Wright who was Paul Dacre’s deputy for a number of years
130 Brighton Pavillion good value for the Greens?
With regard to David’s reflections on Anti Politicans or people outside the club I see a story buried on page 2 of the Telegraph. A suggestion that Louise Casey may be ennobled and parachuted into the government. While she makes most liberals puke their organic museli over the morning Guardioan I think this would do Labour no harm because
- Strong track record on ASB.
- Strong media performer.
- High spun “unspun” anti politican persona
- strong track record of delivery which is why civil servants brief against her so strongly.
I’d actually be quite surprised if a careerist like her wanted to be tied to a dying government. More of a coup if Cameron got her. However if she would do it, perhaps a Minister of State level with a cross cutting Home Office/DCLG brief she’d be an excellent response to BNP gains in June.
130. I agree with Roger. However Caroline Lucas needs a Gordon reece/Tim bell style make over. Very, Very able woman and a terrific media performer. However she is still firmly stuck in the waitrose end of the market and there is a reccession on. She needs
- Voice work
- a more mainstream volcabulary
- not to run away from her most obvious USP. Gender.
O/T
If true this is scary
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/ma…nt-provacateurs
G20 police ‘used undercover men to incite crowds’
An MP who was involved in last month’s G20 protests in London is to call for an investigation into whether the police used agents provocateurs to incite the crowds.
Liberal Democrat Tom Brake says he saw what he believed to be two plain-clothes police officers go through a police cordon after presenting their ID cards.
Brake, who along with hundreds of others was corralled behind police lines near Bank tube station in the City of London on the day of the protests, says he was informed by people in the crowd that the men had been seen to throw bottles at the police and had encouraged others to do the same shortly before they passed through the cordon.
Brake, a member of the influential home affairs select committee, will raise the allegations when he gives evidence before parliament’s joint committee on human rights on Tuesday.
138, disregarding the fact I’d never vote for an ever-so-earnest republican, I’m puzzled by your third suggestion.
“Vote for me, I’ve got ovaries” is a Harman campaigning slogan. No need for women generally to be afflicted with such a gender-based view of the world.
135
So any mention of a Tory being a, ‘little suspect’ its due personal preferences of the paper’s editor, and shouldn’t happen. However the exposure of Labour ministers wrongdoing, thats in the public interest.
I take it that you feel that Mr Gummer, was perfectly justified in his claims, and should not be exposed.
Before you ask, those Labour MP’s, (all of ‘em) who have played the system should be punished, by having to pay back the money, and if they have deliberately deceived, or in any way falsified a claim, they should be prosecuted and slung out of parliament.
Oh sorry! something else, another Tory having trouble with moles.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/may/10/damian-green-home-office-leak
126 Link to Rennard - after James Gray
http://tinyurl.com/qwxadf
LIB DEM campaign guru Lord Chris Rennard has pocketed £41,000 expenses on a holiday home-against House of Lords rules.
For peers to claim for second homes, their main residence has to be outside London. But we can reveal that he spends almost all his time in a house just TWO MILES from Westminster.
Lord Rennard-said to earn £90,000 a year as his party’s Chief Executive-claimed the £41,678 cash over six years from 2001/02.
Ed Miliband seems nice if a bit physically uncoordinated.
143 he needs to stop sneering when he hears something he doesn’t like
123. Nick, I would be astonished if Labour polls better than last time in the Euros. What reason is there at the moment for Labour supporters to go out and vote? At best, it’s to send a message that the Conservatives won’t have things all their own way.
Labour voters don’t have anything to protect by voting for them (as with other parties) because the EP is seen as largely irrelevant. There’s no positive vote because there’s no positive campaign. In fact, what *does* Labour stand for at the moment?
I believe that YouGov have got their turnout figures drastically wrong for the Euros, in addition to the ‘halo effect’ of asking the question straight after the GE one. The turnout at the Euros will be about half that of the next GE and will be even lower in the stronger Labour areas because generally speaking, there aren’t any local elections there this year. The reason for YouGov’s figures might be a refletion on their methodology: I would guess that their panel is much more likely to vote than average (they also didn’t ask a ‘likelihood to vote question’, which would have been handy).
As a whole, the 19% for Others is just WAY too low. That is half what they scored in 2004.
I half agree with Roger. The Greens probably will do OK, holding their two seats though they’ll do extremely well to pick up a third. I disagree on classing UKIP and the BNP as establishment parties. They’re not: they’re parties of protest as well.
I thought Ed Miliband did a fair job of defending what is effectively indefensible.
What surprises me is that he was the fall guy; i dont know why they didnt send someone who the public could find warm and cuddly, like Johnson or Straw; or a Brown enemy at whom those watching could direct their hate, like David Miliband
Am I being very stupid as usual, or has shadsy hidden the constituency betting on the Ladbrokes site (and the EU election bet on Labour, for that matter)?
Not talking about ideology,heaven forfend ! I am putting a lot of faith in UKIP to do better than expected.
I listened to NF(crazy initials,crazy guy) on a programme with an LD and a Labour man and two things struck me.
First, he seemed totally unmenacing and even quite cuddly but more importantly Farage seemed to be getting a lot of respect from the other two.
Of course this could have been self-interested respect if you wish to be cynical about it.
The upshot is that come the European elections I wish to cast my vote in a way that hurts the BNP most.This could be it.
Have seen the Rennard thing. If true that very, very naughty. Completely within the rules but completely outside the spirit of them. Its just as bad as Uddin. Fortunately Joe Public will never have heard of Rennard and there is to much s**t flying around for it to take off a story.
However beneath the water line this is a hole. I don’t see how the Lib Dem media operation can insert its self into an anti establishment narrative if every hack in Britain knows the party Chief Exec has been on the fiddle.
Conspiracy theorist will ask if this revelation has anything to do with the long rumoured/little denied Clegg/Rennard tensions ?
re: 140 But you are never going to vote for her anyway. We still have a very male dominated political class and of course for many on the liberal left the Great She Elephant was to all intents and purposes a man. I wouldn’t under estimate the number of pi**ed of female lefties who might stick a vote to the Greens if Lucas doesn’t run away from things like child care, equality etc. ts the same pool that Harman is fishing in.
Burnham lamb to Boulton’s slaughter right now on Sky
I’m gagging to find out which Tory MP claimed for the Chandelier ?
The great thing about Conhome,(I’ll get the usual protests from voreas I suppose) and proves its superiority over Labourhome,(although when the Tories are in that may improve) is its frankness when it comes to exposing the blemishes in its own party.
http://www.dailyexpress.co.uk/posts/view/100131
I get the feeling that the subject of that piece may be, ‘featured’ in the days ahead.
149 The big thing for the Greens is whether they can win Brighton Pavilion. The problem for them is that they have to get the Labour vote not just to abandon Labour but actively come out and vote for them as opposed to their usual abstention in these sorts of circumstances. The Tory vote will of course turn out.
145 - Low turnout? I can’t see turnout getting above 30%
SkyBet - Manchester Withington
Lab 5/6
LD 5/6
Con 25/1
That’s good value on the LibDems.
I suspect the Greens in Brighton Pavillion will face the same fate as the watford Liberal Democrats. Or indeed george galloway in Poplar and Limehouse.
Just looking at the North Wiltshire notionals ? Surely Gray is toast. Given the previous deselection attempts and the threats of an Independent challenge could the Lib Dems pull off a surprise win on the low 30’s percent if he stays ?
If I were a bright young conservative staffer I’d be on the geneology sites now looking for a local link.
153 Punter.I was thinking on those very lines this morning.I will proceed to make a book on Brighton Pavillion on Betfair.
154. It may sneak above 30% because (a) quite a lot of people have postal votes now which does make it easier to vote, although who those not-very-inclined-to-vote people will vote for is anyone’s guess and (b) I’d expect the turnout in areas that have local elections simultaneously to be at least 40%.
5. But both the Tory gains from third place could be considered “freak” results.
Ross & Cromarty 1970: intervention of the SNP allowed the Tory to win.
Lincoln 1979: many Tories had voted tactically for Dick Taverne in 1973-4. His withdrawal in 1979 reinstated the Tories as main challengers to Labour.
The Tories have never managed to win from third in a “regular” contest, unlike Labour, the LibDems and the SNP.
155. very generous odds. While Leech hasn’t lived upto potential in many ways rock solid local operation with plenty of resources being put into Gorton that can be pulled back if needed. I’d expect further erosion in the Labour vote with a classic first term incumbancy bounce for Leech.
160 YS.Mike Smithson fancies the Lib Dems in Withington something rotten.
He sent me packing with a flea in my ear for daring to suggest Labour might win it…….this was at a time when Labour were polling rather better than now.
re 145. All YouGov turnout figures have got to be regarded with great care because of the abnormal group - their polling panel - who exclusively take part in their polls.
Inevitably those on it, as we see time and time again, are more interested in politics than the norm.
149 Glad for your comments on Rennard - couldn’t help noticing last night that Tories leapt on Gray & Gummer, particularly the former (for reasons other in main IMHO than the £60 claim), that the few Labour posters damned their lot but no Lib Dems expressed outrage at Rennard.
Listening to the radio & TV today was struck by how uncomfortable most are in discussing Labour sleaze; has to be “they are all at it” and “wait for the Tory stories, they will be worse”. Marr & others eager to get back in their comfort zone and attack the Tories/
ConHome, Dale & other Tory blogs are more often damning on their party than on others - see again Gray versus Ussher/Moran - Labourhome and Labourlist seem very critical now of their bad apples, though still have the “wait for Tory stories” line. Can’t see LDV but don’t get impression the LibDems are outraged & discussing Lord Rennard.
Today, Guido is promising more revelations on Lord Rennard.
157 & 156. The saving grace for the Greens though is Lucas and the novelty for the media of a first Green MP. If they take to her she could generate massive amounts of extra publicity and as we saw with Galloway that could just be enough to tip the balance towards them by turning the Labour vote over to them rather than abstention. Another Lib Dem MP in Watford would be contrast be unlikely to generate massive media excitement.
Caroline Lucas also has a shiny new website.
http://www.carolinelucasmep.org.uk/
4-1 for her to take Pavilion seems a little generous. One advantage of not having MPs at the moment is that none of them have fiddled the expenses. If you think the distaste with the current denizens of Westminster is limited to the BNP’s target market, you’re wrong. The left/liberal/internationalist end of the electorate will want somewhere else to go too.
160 Yellow Sub. Good Morning Campers.
I haven’t touched Withington yet but the Lib Dem odds of 5/6 seem very long. I’d put them at a notional 1/3 fav.
re 161. I forecast here on July 31st 2004 that the Lib Dems would win Withington. They will hold on easily unless their is an expenses scandal involving the incumbent MP.
159. Rod - zzzzzzzzzzz.
From this morning’s Labourgraph:
“Yesterday, Mr Woolas told the BBC that the details of the allegation did not stand up to investigation.
However, analysis of the receipts does not support his version of events. In August 2004, Mr Woolas, the Labour MP for Oldham East and Saddleworth, claimed £210.31 for what was described on his expenses form as “food”. He was reimbursed in full from the public purse.
The claim was backed by receipts from Tesco, for £69.30; Marks and Spencer, for £16.69; Sainsbury’s, for £27.33; and two from Somerfield for a total of £96.99. The five receipts come to £210.31.
However, not all of the items purchased are permissible as expenses under House of Commons rules.
The Tesco bill, dated Aug 12, included a pair of women’s shoes for £23, two packets of disposable bibs priced £2.98 each, a bottle of nail polish at £5.75, three comics for £5.14, two packs of babies wipes at £1.44 each and a ladies’ jumper at £5. The cost of these impermissible items comes to £47.73, which makes the food part of the total claim only £162.58.
Mr Woolas insisted that his receipts exceeded the sums he claimed; but in this case they matched exactly.”
It is Phil, not Phyllis, isn’t it?
162
Some might be interested in the wonga or just like surveys (not all are political), but I reckon its going to take me two years to get to £50 and get paid.
Mike Do you therefore think the non aligned BPIX is more accurate?
Matt in the Sunday Telegraph
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
45. Stuart, Its hard to believe the Tories would have any chance of taking the 2 Ayrshire seats, if that happened Labour would be down to zero MP’s. I do not know as much about the others.
“and the reduction in the salience of Europe as a key issue to the public is likely to hit their support in June.”
Anecdotal only but not sure that bit is true - since BJ4BW there’s more anti-EU feeling than there was but it’s become wrapped up as part of the wider issue of immigration.
Also, people don’t start to vote BNP immediately at the point where they start to agree with their policies. They go through a bunch of displacement stages first because of the anti pressure in the media. So on top of a new chunk of BJ4BW votes there’ll be an extra chunk of “almost BNP” votes will go to UKIP (or Libertas, Jury) as a displacement and the more potential BNP votes there’ll be in the Euros (large imo) the more displaced votes there’ll be scattering about the place.
The above will at least partially compensate for any Tory UKIP voters going back to the fold but I’m not quite sure why anti-EU Tories would go back to voting Tory in the Euro elections unless they know about all the UKIP sleaze in Babylon. Can’t remember how well publicized all that was in the offline media.
Apart from that, agree with the OP - Tories as a party can’t get much direct benefit from the expenses thing. However Cameron could do a white knight routine as an individual and promise he’d clean up the sleaze from all sides of the house. Advantage to Cameron there in being rich before politics and not getting rich through stealing from the citizens.
48. Alex I will believe it when I see the Tories with 15 seats, I am not convinced it will happen. The key factors on independence will be the Holyrood elections.
159. But then again the Tories haven’t had a ‘big gain’ election since 1979, much reducing the scope for wins from third place. Before 1983, there probably weren’t many seats outside Scotland where the Tories were in third place and the Conservatives underperformed in Scotland in the 1980s compared with the UK as a whole. Gains in 1983 and 2005 were smallish and every other election saw losses.
It’s not a hard and fast rule that the Conservatives can’t win from third; it’s just that the conditions haven’t been right.
126*
Certainly an encouraging poll for the LD’s- any momentum for the European elections will be very welcome, if slightly surprising.
My expectation is that the UKIP share will not be as low as 7%. In the next 4 weeks Farage and Co will doubtlessly receive a lot more coverage, perhaps not as much as in 04, but their profile will certainly be high. For a minor party they are also incredibly well funded, the laughable ‘Churchill would have got our money back’ billboard has already appeared in Bishop’s Stortford.
UKIP to record about 12% on the day; with all the main parties 1 or 2% down from the Yougov poll…
152 Look mate you are trying to spin that they are all at it and there is some equivalence between the parties. I simply don’t believe that and the evidence backs me. 80% of the dodgy claims are from Labour. I am not saying the Tories won’t have one or two rotten apples but that is the difference. The tories have a handful, in the Labour party it is endemic to milk the system for whatever you can get, it seems to be a badge of honour to take the taxpayers for as much as possible in the Labour party.
lets be honest that is Labour’s governing philosophy and that is therefore their stance on expenses.
177. Ah once again we have the intriguing syndrome of the Lib Dems desperately talking up UKIP, a party they loathe.
176. I wasn’t quite right there: the Conservatives’ gains in 1983 were about the same as in 1979 but as the Liberal/SDP Alliance also surged forward at that election, the prospects for gains from third were still minimal (not many Lab-Lib-Con or Lib-Lab-Con seats in 1979).
109. Stuart , looks like there could be some interesting bets in some of those Scottish seats, as long as the 3rd choice is discounted. need to do a bit of research.
The biggest winners will be the BNP.
178. The greater number of scammers on the Labour side also reflects the origins of their MPs - so many come from a public sector environment where fiddling the system for personal benefit is an established norm.
176. 1983 was a big gain election. The largest swing to government since the War, and the third-largest swing in any direction, up to that time.
Moreover, Labour in particular have managed to win from third at elections which saw only modest progress nationally - 1987 and 1992. They even made such a gain in 1979!
Of course, nothing is fixed in stone, but it appears the Tories failure is related to their inability to attract tactical voters - a handicap I expect to continue…
Margaret Moran must know she is in trouble as she is making some improbable excuses and veiled threats.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/05/true-home-of-mr-margaret-moran.html
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/05/margaret-moran-heaps-further.html
Morning all. I have no problem with the Greens taking 5 or 6 seats at the expense of Labour and the LibDems or the BNP taking a seat or two at the expense of Labour. Arguably the Tories might not win back as many seats as expected if UKIP hold on to more than expected because they also fall out with the “plague on all their houses” though with one UKIP MEP facing criminal charges for fraud, they may not be on the highest moral platform themselves.
People keep portraying the BNP as evil, nasty etc etc. Yes many of their policies are repugnant to most of us on PB but the candidates and party workers are ordinary people and they speak the same language as the average white working class voter, especially in areas which were until the 1980s heavily industrialised. It is there that the shallowness of Gordon Brown’s BJFBW will I suspect come back to bite Labour on the bum.
177 What Poll is this.
177 What Poll is this.
Not sure if already posted, this from Hills press page:
BOOKMAKERS William Hill believe that MPs will brazen out the current expenses furore and that NONE of them will resign as a consequence before the end of July.
Hills are offering 3/1 that one or MPs will quit, citing the expenses issue as the reason, but 2/9 that none at all will go. ‘MPs seem united in their determination to brazen out the virtually universal condemnation on the grounds that everything they have done is within the rules - albeit rules they have made themselves’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe. ‘If one were to quit it would be seen as proof that they were all guilty.’
http://www.williamhillmedia.com/index_template.asp?file=12400
If you fancy it, you’d have to phone tomorrow morning I guess.
Sir Stuart Bell on Sky says an indpeendant body to be set up to oversee MP claims.
Its a start, but it doesn’t get to the heart of the problem - the things they can claim for.
186 - Don,t know which BNP candidates and workers you know, butputting a suit on over a bulldog tattoo and hiding your criminal record doesn’t pass muster in most areas.
Seems to be a lot of people in denial over how successful the BNP will be. The core Labour voters have been let down by Labour, they see the politicians troughing whilst they lose their jobs. They arent going to vote for the Conservatives, Lib Dems or the Green party. They will vote for any party who stands up and says it like it is rather than hide behind the whole “hate crime” curtain.
Until people wake up and see what is going on and the parties look after the majority as well as protecting the minorities then we will sleepwalk into a crisis. People voted in Hitler because he found a message that the other politicians dare not say but the people actually thought!!!
Just because we are British does not mean it wont happen. The British were supposed to be above corruption but now we see this is not true!
191. Only a small minority of people ever know who they are really voting for as a person. The rest simply vote for their party and what that party represents! Most people dont give a damn about politics!
Griffins recent racial purity spouting suggest nothing has changed.
Although I do realise that some Tories, so degraded by their hatred f this government are prepared to overlook the BNPs nazi theology.
170. Mirthios
Certainly, it’s going to take a lot more than two packs of babies’ wipes to clean this lot up.
185 The problem with Margaret Moran’s argument - that it is the house she shares with her partner, who works in Southamption - is that it implies that the Southampton home should be her main home. So she should not be claimimg on it even under the current rules.
167 Any thoughts on Manchester Gorton or Swansea West two other University seats.
Telegraph looks like they had some serious legal pressure over Brown behind the scene - Schilling’s anybody?
As Dizzy pointed out on Friday, very expensive cleaner on a flat that’s not in use as Brown lived in Downing Street.
198. Has anyone identified the cleaner yet? I’m surprised fleet street haven’t got to him/her already…or perhaps not given their apparent unwillingness to expose embarassing details about senior politicians (e.g. Kennedy, Thorpe, Blair…)
188*
The poll i refer to is the YouGov from last night, as well as Westminster voting intentions, they also posed the question on how people will vote in the Euro’s:
Con 36, Lab 25, LD 20, UKIP 7 were the headlines…
179*, I do loathe UKIP and believe that withdrawl from the EU would be catastrophic. The abuse of Churchill’s name on their advert is unpleasant as well.
On the other hand, UKIP’s position is a lot more honest than the Tory one. Everybody knows that the Tories pledge to ‘renegotiate’ a litany of treaties is a promise that could never be fulfilled- as it would be reliant on co-operation from all other EU members!
198 link?? please
Damian Green and his friend falling out, I see:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/may/10/damian-green-home-office-leak
139. A similar allegation was made by George Galloway relating to violence at a demonstration in/near Parliament Square a few months ago. I can’t remember the exact date or circumstances, but IIRC he did specifically mention it in the HoC and name the police officer whom he believed to have been the undercover naughtyist.
200. zzzz as usual the Lib Dem obsession with UKIP turns out to be no more than the hope they will hurt the Tories.
The Speaker’s scapegoat: Official who signed off MPs’ expenses didn’t even have accountancy qualification
The row over MPs’ expenses has intensified after it was revealed the parliamentary finance chief who signs off their claims had no formal accountancy skills - and that he feared he would be sacked when he warned the Commons Speaker the system was being abused.
Andrew Walker, who runs the Commons Fees Office responsible for MPs’ wages and expenses, told Speaker Michael Martin more than five years ago that he must act to curb excessive claims.
But Westminster sources say the Speaker told him not to meddle, and ‘punished’ him by refusing to speak to him for weeks at a time.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1179937/The-Speakers-scapegoat-Official-signed-MPs-expenses-didnt-accountancy-qualification.html
Hmmm Tessa Jowell - now remind me who she’s married to.
‘Sorry for parliament being brought into disrepute’ - that outrageous formulation yet again!
183 - Rubbish.
My ‘damson’ conversion to Buying Lib Dem Seats has borne fruit.Just Sold LD at 55.0.This was a great surprise, not so much that it happened but that it happened so quickly.
Next stop 57.0 !
199. paper yesterday said that she had retired to Spain , luckily.
197. I want the Lib Dems to gain Swansea West by a margin of 75 votes.
200 I don’t think the Tories’ position on Europe is dishonest. The EU is supposed to be a group of democratic countries, so should be democratic itself. OK, we all know it isn’t, but I see nothing wrong with attempting to reform it from within and/or review the UK’s relationship with it. The elephant in the room is what happens when this - perhaps inevitably - fails, and it is this that is missing from the Tories’ policy. In such an eventuality, will they support withdrawal, or just accept that the EU is unreformable and we are fated to become an inconsequential Atlantic province of a European superstate?
191. “Don,t know which BNP candidates and workers you know, butputting a suit on over a bulldog tattoo and hiding your criminal record doesn’t pass muster in most areas.”
Lolz. No bulldog tattoos in the modern Labour party for sure.
202 nice Nick, nice. ‘friend’ now is it?
7 - QT was pretty unbelievable on Thursday. That guy who wanted everyone DNA’d from birth.
202. Nick, do you feel happy about the way Treasury Ministers and other Cabinet ministers have been using ‘rules’ to evade taxes, taxes which they force us to pay?
“Do as I say not as I do” is the motto of Kitty Usher, Alistair Darling, Gordon Brown, Geoff Hoon, Hazel Blears.
Nick Palmer in smearbot mode again today. Isn’t it demeaning to be obliged to write such posts?
214. That fellow was surely a Labour activist - he certainly had the socially inept and ugly look of one.
Vote Loony - he only claims expenses when they are a Fibonacci number
by Rob L May 10th, 2009 at 7:05 am
Post of the day by a wide margin.
209
Well the cleaner can afford to…charging such rates as that!
re 208. The spreads are a bit behind Betfair line on the the LDs. You can still buy at 51 seats - which I did this morning.
191
Unfortunately Tim it seems as if the BNP are learning fast and candidates will be less of the knuckle dragging tatooed variety and more of the ‘ordinary housewife/bloke in the street’ type.
Its a con of course. Given that one of the membership requirements of the party is that you must be white I can’t see how anyone standing for elecion for them can claim not to be racist. But will enough people in the street see through this?
I am pessemistic about avoiding the BNP gaining seats and would not be surprised to see their vote share up around 7-8% with the overall ‘non big 3′ share being between 25% and 30%
203 - Galloway made ir all up.
http://www.socialistunity.com/?p=3531
198.
DT Headlines
“Cleaner Found Dead in the Woods Sensation!”
196 - That seems to be pretty conclusive. Her defence doesn’t stand up to scrutiny even if she had always claimed it as her second home, not flipped it just before paying for renovations.
re 202 - Well would you employ a leaker?
202 Not a surprise, Green denied offering him a job all along. Besides which, offering financial inducements to someone to break an employment contract is probably actionable in some way.
Weren’t there rumours about pre 1997 civil service leakers doing well in The Treasury after Year Zero?
202
Yep Nick in smear mode.
Would this be the same Galley who swore blind that absolutely no offers were made to him in return for the leaks?
So either he was lying then or he is lying now… or more likely this is the Guardian creating a story out of nothing.
How irritating to see Nick Palmer completely unable to censure larceny on a grand scale. Nick’s excuse, as always, is that these matters are not raised by his constituents or on his canvassing trips.
There is an obvious reason for this.
The role of an MP is to represent the views of his/her constituents to the Gov’t of the day.
Nick Palmer’s role is to represent the views of Gov’t of the day to his constituents.
198/199: This was on a previous thread - the cleaner now lives in Spain but was interviewed in one of the papers: he said GB’s flat was always seriously untidy. By coincidence in 2000 I was looking to move and looked at a place in a block off Great Peter Stret: the gossippy porter said “you’ll find the Chancellor living next door, he’s a nice man”. As I recall, the flats had unusually large rooms - it was one of those older blocks built before the idea of cramming as many flats as possible into each block took hold.
There’s an issue about whether people who are given official residences should be allowed to choose not to live in them and get normal expenses for living elsewhere. Chnaging this so it’s no longer allowed is one of the package of reforms that Brown’s proposed.
The second homes situation would be solved easily enough if it reverted to its original intention - ie - related to PARLIAMENTARY ACTIVITIES.
That would mean that MPs could only claim for homes in London (since that is where Parliamentary work takes place), and there would be no option of designating a constituency (or other) home as their “second home”.
“202. The civil servant at the centre of the Home Office leak inquiry says he has been “dumped” by the Conservative party, even though Tory frontbencher Damian Green promised him a job in return for handing over sensitive Whitehall documents”
If true wouldn’t that be a criminal offense by Green? I doubt the police would want to follow it up though nonetheless a good lesson for Green. If you sup with the devil use a long spoon.
Just caught up on the thread.
Re SCotland, just reminding you all of the marker I put down as long ago as June 2008
General Election 2010: Scotland
Net Changes
Labour -14
LbDems -4
SNP +12
Tories +6
If you want the individual seats, Mike will need to run my entire set of 8 regions.
Rod Crosby:You forget to add that in Ross and Cromarty, having taken the seat back in 1970 from the Liberals, Hamish Gray then held in Feb 74, Oct 74 and May 79. He lost to the unknown Charles Kennedy standing for the SDP in 83. There were very specific reasons behind this.
Hamish Gray had been Minister of State for Energy and between 79 and 83 the decision had to be taken where to land the gas pipeline on the northern mainland. Gray took the decision to land it in Aberdeenshire instead of in his own seat in Easter Ross, barely a handful of miles from where I am typing right now.
It was portrayed as “toe the party line and lose or resign and save your seat”. He chose the former and lost his seat. His reward was a peerage immediately afterwards to howls of derision hereabouts. The Chairman of the Tain and Easter Ross Branch of the Tory Association at the time resigned as did most of his committee. His name: - Jamie Stone, since 1999 LibDem MSP for Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross!
223. Added to Iain Dale’s info that the husband claims to live in Luton and it does not look good for Mags…
219 MS.I have set up a nice ‘middle’ on Lib Dem Seats with a double win at 48.5-54.5 inclusive and a single win at 48.0 and 55.0.
I tried to get a discussion going on mine about the subtle differences between Line and Spread betting but it didn’t really take off.
Obviously Buying at 48.0 and Selling at 55.0 on the Spread gives you a fixed 7 point win but with the Line you might end up winning nothing or alternatively winning two bets.
219.
Mike,
In the light of all these expenses revelations and disastrous Polls. Do you think Brown might pay a visit to the Palace tomorrow, its the last date to give notice for a June 4th Election !
183. “so many come from a public sector environment where fiddling the system for personal benefit is an established norm”
As a disgruntled private-sector taxpayer, this was one of my first thoughts about this affair. On reflection, however, I’m not sure it’s valid. My girlfriend is a senior manager in an NHS trust and seems to work within the same kind of expenses system (and culture) that I’ve experienced in the private sector: everything has to be justified as business-related; receipts are required; there’s an expectation that cheaper forms of travel etc etc are used where practicable. By her own accounts there’s far more extravagance at director-level, but then that can happen in the private sector too.
What I’m getting at is that MPs’ behaviour in this area is not typical of *any* other segment of the workforce. That is why they are going to find it so hard to justify. There’s almost no-one who reads this stuff and thinks “Hey, yeah, that’s just how it is in my workplace”.
(My first post here btw. Greetings to all.)
231 - Actually he said that Green said that “he’d be OK”, which is about as obvious a non-job offer as you can get.
230. I do think that there needs to be some flexibility. The normal situation could be legitimately reversed e.g. an MP’s family home is in London (ie they all live there, children go to London schools etc) and the MP maintains a second home in/near the constituency from which to do weekend work.
What’s needed is some common sense oversight to be able to judge on these things. More publicity and openness should help but a better sense of proportion within Westminster, both from MPs and the Fees Office is needed too.
229. ’seriously untidy’…’large rooms’…heavens what desperate stuff.
The Euro elections are meaningless as the euro Parliament is meaningless. Pointless to draw conclusions.
Local elections are a bit different and should reflect current mood.
Cameron can if he wants to afford to be ruthless and if so he should come out of this well.
Brown has a problem since he is as guilty as most of his MPs. They are many more MPs and so Labour are going to be hit hardest. And cabinet members are doubly guilty.
229 your leader might have the seal of approval of turn of the millenium gossipy porters, however many of us can smell the whiff around this ‘cleaner’ and can see through the lie of Brown’s moral compass.
He presides over a giant trough from which he has himself supped heartily.
186 Tim, talking sh1te and smearing as usual.
Every day hundreds of thousands of Tory, LibDem and Labour voters pull white shirts on over assorted body art wear smart suits and hold down high powered jobs. Indeed my ex fiance had a little rosebud somewhere I am too much of a gentleman to disclose and by anyone’s standards she was a Tory voting aristocrat.
241 was a response to 191 responding to my 186!!
201
Dizzy link
http://dizzythinks.net/2009/05/were-they-using-gold-plated-bottles-of.html
220. They are numerous organisations out there, where the single qualifying criteria for admittance to the organisation is to not be white. They are usually 100% funded from the public purse. The most famous one, has to be the Black Police Officers association, which despite its name, isnt only for black people, but for everyone who isnt white british. It rather amusingly though, is also a completely and utterly corrupt organisation, which has defrauded accounts, covered up for crooks, but gets away with it.
244. Sounds like the Labour Party.
236.I’d be surprised if we don’t get a Daily Mirror ‘Kiss and Tell’ any day now. The guy was only paid £25000 a year. They could buy his story out of petty cash
220 A couple of weeks ago I posted anecdotal evidence about a friend’s brother who was prepared to believe that the BNP’s streetfighting past was behind it, and that their little-Englander socialist economic policies and paleoconservative social policies were the right ones. If people like tim spout things like “nazi theology” it is now easy for the BNP to at least make this look like hyperbole. Pointing out that there is such a thing as a white British ethnicity is not nazism, it is a truism in my view, although many of the policies that the BNP then derives from them are abhorrent.
Many people do not accept that racism is the great sin that the liberal left make it out to be. They may vaguely believe it to be wrong, or may vaguely have a view that they would prefer the more racially homogeneous Britain they grew up in. They may have ethnic minority friends but believe that they are “one of us” while other minorities are less acceptable in some way. Where I live, there is great support for the Gurkhas (who used to be barracked a couple of miles from where I live) but I strongly suspect a lot of those supporters also like living in an overwhelmingly white corner of Hampshire.
These people are not going to be put off by the insistent chanting of “nazi, racist”, I believe it would be far better to demolish the BNP’s policies as stupid and inhumane (which they are) and to publicise the criminal records of many of the people who are still in positions of authority in the party.
244
And they are equally racist. But no matter how you spin it you cannot get away from the fact that the BNP bars non whites from membership, a fact which undermines any claims it might make to having changed.
235. Ladbrokes have June 2009 as 25/1 for a GE date. That doesn’t look tempting to me.
So time for some honesty now Nick.
You keep on telling us that you took a salary cut on becoming an MP.
I grant that you took a cut in nominal salary only. However, when the net allowances and expenses are included at gross (i.e., before tax) levels, I do not believe that you did not take a salary cut.
Hence, your repeated remarks about the selfless and public-spirited way in which you took a salary cut are just a another, milder case of the Margaret Morans.
247 Neat post,Phil C.
191.
Tim,
Do us all a favour and F4ck off!
Oh look, Hazel Blears is now saying the expenses system is ‘wrong’. Not that that stopped her taking advantage of it all this time.
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8042261.stm
Hypocrite.
246 - as he still apparently does work for his local Conservative Party, I doubt he holds much truck for the Daily Mirror.
247. Good post Tim. The BNP are of course, a deeply unpleasant bunch of thugs and Nazis. But that won’t stop them getting quite a lot of votes - which is perhaps as damning an indictment of the major parties as you could imagine.
229. “As I recall, the flats had unusually large rooms - it was one of those older blocks built before the idea of cramming as many flats as possible into each block took hold.”
Took hold? You write as if this were some natural phenomenon rather than a direct result of your government’s planning policies.
241. Easterross. The BNP is the direct descendant of the National Front. It isn’t Tim who’s “talking shite”
255. Oops meant ‘Phil’
@257:
That’s just untrue, as a cursory glance of the history of the BNP and the NF will show.
255 Tim?
Edited to say: ta for the clarification.
258 runnymede…….perhaps a Phreudian slip ?
Guido’s choice of words in his post don’t look good for M’Lord Rennard. I wonder what he has ?
257 Roger the sh1te was Tim’c clear inference that all people with arms covered in tattoos who wear smart suits support the BNP.
This is very bad politics and economics by Brown, in effect Brown has undermined his C of E by saying this! Could cause problems on the markets!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/5301732/Alistair-Darling-the-Chancellor-to-move-from-Treasury-in-nuclear-Cabinet-reshuffle-plan.html
Alan Johnson knows F*ck all about economics!
Mind you that may be no bad thing as maybe he could not do anything to screw things up further if the civil service run rings around him! Alan Johnson would be a nutter to take over C of E and I detect the exact same counter briefing as Miliband got last year!
Message to Alan Johnson - Watch out for people giving you a Bannana and then taking a picture of you!!!
259
Sorry Martin but Roger is right. The modern BNP was founded by an amalgamation of the New National Front and the British Movement in 1982. Given that the founder was John Tyndall, a former chairman of the NF, I find it hard to argue with Roger’s contention that the BNP is a direct descendent.
David Cameron being interviewed by Glen Campbell on Politics Show Scotland. Interesting stuff. I think those of you in England can see it on the Parliament Channel at 3pm
He confirms Stuart’s postings this morning that he will seek to work closely with Alex Salmond and the SNP administration in Scotland
248. You’re falling into the beartrap. Just calling them a ‘racist’ party isn’t going to put off a reasonable sized chunk of the electorate to whom the BNP is speaking their language. The response from the voters is ’so what?’.
Phil C writes an excellent post at [247]. The problem for voters is not skin colour or ethnicity but culture; the ‘one of us’ syndrome. Where immigrants have successfully integrated into the mainstream community, the problems arising from that immigration are much lower and support for extremist parties also lower. By contrast, where there remains significant (and increasing) segregation, some people will feel the need to be more active in trying to protect their culture and identity.
Whether the BNP is racist or not (it is) is to them an academic point. Often, they are not bothered about whether the candidate gets elected and know full-well that the BNP has little or no chance of winning the full election outright (ie being able to put their policies into practice). The intent is to send a message.
And to that end, the BNP has changed. Despite Griffin’s little recent rant about blood and race, the BNP’s literature doesn’t focus on that. It focusses on issues of concern to their target voters: housing and crime (for example) and then links those issues to immigration. The change is not what they are against but what they campaign for.
200 - “UKIP’s position is a lot more honest than the Tory one. ” The Tory party are one of the great historical parties of the world. They are a great coalition of centre and right centre views. A coalition - so it covers a wide spectrum of opinion which has to coalesce around an agreed view.
UKIP are a bunch of single issue tosspots who collapse rather than coalesce if they have to talk about anything else other than English supremacy and superiority.
Do not insult my intelligence by calling them ‘honest’.
202. Nick Palmer.
I’ve not seen you ever post a smear piece before. It’s disappointing. Is that what these desperate times have led you to?
It may well have been that Galley expected some reward but other than the highly contrived interpretation of vague statements there seems no evidence that anything was offered. Dreadful journalism by the Guardian and a particularly low moment for your good self.
265 Richard Tyndall.Another even more excellent post.
If tim or Roger said today was Sunday,the Tory Herd would be claiming it was Thursday or Wedneday.
They are that stupid….and I am only talking about the decent ones.
The indecent,(wayne and his ilk) would be calling for tim and Roger to be banned.
263. Easterross. That’s not how I read it. My reading was that he was saying that was who the BNP are.
And he’sright. They’re still the rascist thugs they’ve always been whichever designer makes Nick Griffins suits.
264. Martin Day May 10th, 2009 at 11:49 am
A recording of the expletive-sprinkled speech was leaked to the Daily Mail. “I suppose you can’t binge drink any more because lots of people have said you can’t do it,” she told her audience. “I don’t know who bloody made that up; it’s nonsense … Doing things sober is no way to get things done.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2005/sep/09/ukcrime.prisonsandprobation
Surely the issue of second homes can be resolved at a stroke. Morgtage interest can be claimed, but when the MP leaves the HOC, any profit on the original purchses (inc subsequent properties) goes directly to the taxpayer, and the second home CANNOT be the one in the constituency.
Some interesting new EU election specials at Ladbrokes. Depressingly, the BNP to get more votes than UKIP in the EU elections at 2-1 looks quite promising value.
268
A good bit of illogical thinking there Trevor.
The fact that the Tory party are, in your personal view “one of the great historical parties of the world” does not make them any more or less honest than any other party. It just makes people more likely to believe their lies.
The Tory party are fundementally dishonest when it comes to the EU. They make promises about regaining powers and rolling back the influence of the EU in Britain whilst knowing full well that they will never be able to deliver on these promises if they refuse to countenance withdrawal.
Everyone who knows anything about the EU knows that this is the case but the Tory party persist in making such misleading statements. As such they are lying.
I make no comment on your intelligence beyond the fact that if you believe what the Tories (or any other party) promises when it comes to the EU then you are no where near as bright as you think.
268. Trevorsden
UKIP are a bunch of single issue tosspots
Have you read their manifesto? They are far from a single issue party these days and have policies that will sit very comfortably with many conservatives.
I’ll grant you that they have a severe image problem and will be squeezed this year and given there are bigger fish to fry (getting rid of Brown and Labour) will not be significant before the General Election.
However should Cameron win I suspect UKIP will be a thorn in Cameron’s side if he fails to implement a sufficiently centre-right agenda.
275 antifrank.Now we’re talking !
I would Lay that 2-1 myself and a bit more.Could be wrong in this instance but I am currently sweet on UKIP and never sweet on the BNP.
A great topic for discussion though.
@270:
The BNP cannot be a direct descendant of the NF because the NF and the BNP coexisted and were in competition with each other throughout the waning influence of the NF in the eighties.
The NF still officially exists as an incorporated party now.
274 - that assumes that, on leaving parliament, the former MP will sell the property.
What happens if they choose to keep the property?
Or are you proposing that second homes must be sold on leaving the house?
@277:
To be honest, when UKIP started having other policies is where it all went wrong for them. Single issue parties with delusions of grandeur always end up collapsing spectacularly.
On the betting front, it would seem that no one believes the report in today’s Sunday Telegraph that Darling will be leaving The Treasury in Brown’s anticipated Cabinet re-shuffle immediately following the Local/Euro elections next month.
265. Yes! Yes! Please let Gordon move Darling to Home. I put a small sum on him last week at 66-1. I thought that it made sense. (Well actually it doesnt make any sense, but it suits Gordon.)
@276:
You keep using this word ‘dishonest’, but I’m just not sure you fully understand what the word means. It’s just fundamentally not appropriate to this context.
Unless of course we’re defining ‘dishonest’ to mean believing the EU to have some value.
Some superb comments on the BNP, from David Herdson,Runnymeade, Phil C and Easterross. Having dealt with them when I was a Member of a Police Authority my take is
- the racist thug core is now proportionately small enough to make them functionally a proper political party. Though I would stress that the thug core is in charge
- For many, many voters voting BNP is a perfectly rational thing to do. The system has screwed them so they screw the system.
- For many people casual racism has no stigma what so ever. By casual racism i mean that that England is for the “English” and that generally white culture is superior to other ones. What is often talked about in racial terms ( as i just have) is actually about culture
- The systems inability to provide cheapish social rented housing and tackle crime means amny people simply don’t care about the parties antecedents if they are an effective process vote
- Voting BNP can “Work” if the local political establishment panics after lection results and gets its finger out.
Put crudely we have passed the “lets all hold hands and teach the world to sing” stage of combating the BNP. They are a classic market failure. the voters have taken there currency to a better supplier and the establishment parties will need to improve sales and service as well as product quality.
Or go the way of Woolies. I’m afraid appeals from Bishops and Rock stars have had there day.
270. JSFL. What a bizarre post. We are to ignore what civil servant and ‘Tory mole’ Galley says because it’s unproven!
Do we apply these stringent standards to everyone?
232. I think your list of seat changes is best described as “potential.” Try halving each number and I bet it will be closer to the actual result!
Yes I knew about Hamish Gray, apart from the interesting bit about the pipeline.
He was one of 4 Tory MPs making an involuntary exit in 1983, three of whom were Scottish…
281 Martin Coxall and any reputable posters on here.I will Lay £110-50 (no more,no less) that BNP get more votes than UKIP in the EU elections.
274. Maggie Thatcher Fan May 10th, 2009 at 11:55 am
Maybe Gordon took out the lifetime Mortgage via his wife because he knew what you suggest would be coming! He has effectively taken equity out via Sarah and they will be able to use the flat till Sarah Snuffs it! Gordon is likely to pre-decease her anyway given age gap and the fact that Gordon is fat!
Very surprised that the media just don’t understand what Brown has done! This is very sleazy in my opinion!
The BNP was founded by John Tyndall, who had been Chairman of the NF. In all likelihood, people who were active in the NF in the Seventies, are more likely to be found in the BNP then the remaining NF.
O/T but I’m enjoying The Genesis Secret. I’ve just reached the blood-eagling scene.
278 - I have my own patent way for adjusting for quiet BNP supporters. On that basis, the BNP and UKIP are neck and neck.
232. easterross, any chance of getting a copy of your full report, I am happy to supply e-mail address via Mike.
279. It’s like saying the Lib Dems have no historical connection with the Liberal Party who I believe also still exist.
279. Martin Coxall. Is this one of those People’s Liberation Front of Judea situations where there are dozens of NFs?
288 - If you consider me reputable, I’ll take you up on that.
285 Very well put.
So let’s see:
1. Last week Hazel knifes Gordon.
2. Expenses ‘breaks’ via Telegraph.
3. Sun Tel leader goes out of its way to say no stain on Gordon and certainly no impropriety.
4. BBC R5 leading that Hazel is put back in the spotlight for not paying CGT on selling her main/secondary residence.
The McBride approach still in force???
285 Yellow submarine, another superb post. I honestly think you are wasted on pb.com.
You should be running the LibDems.
295 antifrank.Certainly do.We can go through the channels (Peter the Punter) if you like.
297 - That is a very plausible narrative
I am still amazed that the Balls/Cooper clan has avoided scrutiny…
Perhaps we can work out why
159. RodC - ‘The Tories have never managed to win from third in a “regular” contest, unlike Labour, the LibDems and the SNP.’
How many times do you need telling Rod.
How many general elections since the advent of 3 party politics in 1983 have we had an unpopular Labour government and a resurgent Conservative party?
Answer none until 2010.
But you’ve never allowed inconvenient facts to get in the way of your ‘theories’ have you.
299 - Done. I’m just dashing out now, but I’ll try to send Peter an email before the end of the day.
@300:
I think The Telegraph are saving up Cooper/Balls for a grand finale.
274. But what if the home in the consituency IS the second home, in the sense that the London one is the family home?
293 There have been so many splits, counter-splits and mergers in the far-right scene to say that any one party is the “direct descendant” of another is going a bit too far. However, the BNP was certainly founded by people in the same far-right milieu as the NF of the ’70s, and still has some of the same people running it. Griffin is one of them, however much of a cuddly image he now likes to portray.
291 I don’t think there’s any way that combined support for the Conservatives/Labour/Lib Dems will rise 16% on 2004.
159. Leeds North West will provide sufficent egg for your face.
240 - As Europe now makes a lot of our laws the European Elections are not meaningless. Even though the European Parliament is not hugely powerful, it does at least have some role in approving legislation, so it is important that we elect the right MEPs!
292 Easterross -I remember you referring to your eight part detailed report on each Scottish region which, IIRC, after part one never saw the light of day. Although, by now, it may require some revision, I imagine it contains some interesting betting opportunities.
285. YS. Are things so bad for voters that they must vote BNP? Is it because the local authorities are badly run or because they dont have enough cash? I listened with interest to a R4 programme recently about the subletting of social housing and the total inability of authorities to deal with it. Is this the type of thing you mean?
307 ChrisM. Are you calling Leeds NW a Conservative gain from third place ? …. 9/4 with the Ladbrokes.
295,299 Yeay! I love to see bets arranged between PBers - much more fun than with bookies, better odds too, providing both parties can be trusted.
Move on SPIN, LD up 1 , Tory down 1
310 ken “Are things so bad for voters that they must vote BNP?”
I think that misses the point, they choose to vote BNP because they think that its policies are good ones. Since NuLab’s move to the right and Cameron’s shift to portray the party as one that accepts much of what was done under the Blair years, they see little difference between the main parties. Populist little-Englander economic policies go down quite well in a recession, however misguided. With crime, disorder and social breakdown all in the news, harsh policies against crime sound reasonable.
When it comes to the violence and racism, well a lot of people have probably swallowed the propaganda that they are not the thugs they were. The racism is either seen as (a) mildly distasteful, but not enough to put voters off or (b) quite attractive to people who would prefer to live in a country where everybody was white, spoke English and notionally CofE.
302 antifrank.I am a total wuss when it comes to email and don’t know how to reply but would be delighted if Mike or PtP could record our wager.
Will try and formalise it but the bottom line is you will be paid !
How many possible Conservative gains from third place are there?
Watford
Leeds NW
Edinbrugh S
Derby N
Hampstead
307. Please expand….
285 Excellent post YS (saved me the bother of making much the same points).
People vote for extremist or fringe parties when they see no hope of action fro the existing ones. Might make us all feel good to think and describe them as tattooed racist skinheads but they are getting support from people who are not “bad people” but everyday voters. They haven’t just won seats and votes in urban ex-industrial places but in leafy suburbia and rural districts.
From Heseltine with his urban regeneration schemes through to today Governments have made gestures towards resolving the causes but ineffectively and in some cases worsening the situation. Its probably about alienation, bad education, street crime, housing, fear of the other, not sure there is an easy answer.
Noticeable that the Scots, with same problems and issues, don’t have same extremist party gains - perhaps the evolution of an inclusive Scots national identity and ability to be proud of being Scots whatever your inheritance has a part (I don’t underplay the Orange/Green, Catholic/Prod divisions but a Celtic and a Rangers supporter will equally wave the saltire and join as Scots against the English).
Fighting the BNP requires more than speeches & marches, insults and further alienation. It means attacking their policies (economic and social not just racial), their record in office.
286. Roger there is nothing bizarre about it. Galley is making claims that apparently he cannot back up with any sort of evidence and making an interpretation that is the one that serves his purposes the best. He is unemployed in the middle of a recession and he needs a job.
However, he and the Guardian seems to have taken an generic phrase and turned it into something that means considerably more. I suspect he has managed to delude himself. However, you can just as easily interpret that phrase as meaning he wouldn’t go to jail. Surprise surprise he didn’t.
Whatever the reality as it stands these are unfounded allegations that have been denied. End of story…….
If he can back it up then I will happily change my mind but until then it is just a smear.
It’s a bit like me interpreting any criticism you make of the Labour party as being ‘evidence’ that you have joined the Conservative Party.
279
I think you need to learn something about what words mean Martin.
I am a direct descendent of my father. He is still alive but that doesn’t make me any less his descendent.
I think I sent an email to Mike Smithson regarding my wager with antifrank.
Hope to see the bet recorded.
301. I am merely recording facts. I also said it wasn’t set in stone.
There are really only about 6 seats where the Tories stand any chance of a gain from third, in approximately descending order of likelihood they are:
Watford
Derby North
Norwich South
Newport East
Edinburgh South
Hampstead & Kilburn
If I had to put money on just one of them, I’d go for Derby North…
Has anyone else heard this “rumour”?
Rumours Cameron is planning a No Confidence motion on the Govt.
Cameron has nothing to lose in calling a vote of no confidence in the Govt, i mean whats the worst that can happen, 12 more months of Brown holding on.
I think Cameron is doing it is a catch 22 here.
If they vote for a confidence motion and Brown wins, then no way they can get rid of Brown next month if Labour back him.
If he loses we get the election asap.
Might just be a smart move. Cameron can say the parliaments credibility is broken and an election should be called to allow the people the right of excercising their confidence as this affects the whole country.
314 to add…
And… voters do not see this as a vote for a Government, they don’t expect the BNP to be in power any time soon. So a vote for the BNP is (a) a boot up the Government (and other parties) and/or (b) a vote to try to force the parties to take on board some of the voters’ concerns, rather like the big Green vote in the 1989 General Election. Even if voters find the BNPs’ racial views distastefu, they may still be prepared to vote for them if they are voting for them for these reasons.
In any case, if the bulk of voters don’t see racism as the ultimate cardinal sin, they may be prepared to vote BNP using the following logic:
I don’t like ID cards or 42 day detention, but I stll vote Labour because I support their other policies…
I don’t like tax breaks for married couples, but I stll vote Conservative because I support their other policies…
I don’t like the fact they’re a bit racist, but I stll vote BNP because I support their other policies…
284
Sorry Martin but this is very clear.
UKIP believe Britain will be better off outside the EU and campaign for withdrawal. Their opinion may be wrong but it is not dishonest.
The Tories believe Britain is better off inside the EU but that they will change the EU to match what they want it to be. They know full well that this is not possible and they only hold to that position because they know that the electorate is, by and large, Eurosceptic. That is a fundementally dishonest position to take.
310. Ken the stories i could tell you about ASB and Housing from my council service would keep the Daily Mail in copy for a year. No shortage of resources for a vast civil service aparatus to deal with the problems. All middle class graduates who lived no where near the problem areas. All very keen on solutions as long as they came 9 to 5 monday to friday minus generious holiday entitlement, “Traing”, conference attendence and high sick levels.
The imperial impulse that governed an empire on which the sun never set has been internalised. Now the officer class has social policy degrees from Ex Ploys and our colonies are our own estates. Imperial rulers often benign, always despotic playing off the tribes while living on reservations away from the slums.
And how did all that end ? Agressive nationalist movements amongst the natives ?
322, may be worth waiting a little. If the Telegraph has anything major on a senior, well-known Tory he can’t talk about credibility in that context. Even if only minor ones are involved, he should discipline them first.
The idea’s sound though.
I have no doubt that these expenses scandals will boost the minor parties vote at the Euros. There were already extra protest votes available from the ex-Labour voters and some ex-UKIP voters (disillusioned since 05).
The question is, where will those votes go? Many just will not bother to vote.
286. Roger. My original reply is in moderation (why I do not know as the language is moderate).
To answer your last question. Do we apply these stringent standards to everyone?
I apply the same criteria to any ‘he said - she said’ type disagreements. Being someone with right of centre views I have got used to the abundance of unfounded claims from the left.
Consequently, that’s why I tend to ignore much of what you (and certain other notorious left of centre posters) post on this site.
322/366 A confidence motion would be pointless.
Gordon has a 60? seat majority and will win. This isn’t a non-binding opposition motion on a minor aspect of immigration policy, it’s a motion of confidence in the Government.
The only possible reasons for doing it would be (a) to rehearse General Election arguments and hopefully get them on the news or (b) if Cameron has intelligence that some Labour MPs might be tempted to vote against the Govt. And even then, the publicity for a cast-iron Government majority would be only positive news for Gordon who can say “rumours of splits are all b0ll0cks, look all our MPs support me”
322 I would imagine he will take down the PO bill, then call a no-confidence on the basis of the 2 vote losses (government cannot get its programme through parliament), the email scandal (government complicit in smearing the opposition), the expenses saga (PMs personal approach faile due to lack of agreement, government and parliament have lost the trust of the public) - and then focus all the debate on Labour rebels - staple them firmly to Brown if they back him, ensure everyone knows that Labour ‘heart’ Brown now and forever.
Leeds North West is A + B - C
A is the substantial first term incumbancy bonus that Greg Mulholland will achieve. Local operators don’t come much sharper or more shameless than Greg.
B is the catastrophic squeeze that will happen on the very large Labour vote which will split at least 60/40 LD/Con
C is the national swing to the conservatives which currently looks very large. large enough to withstrand a LD attempt to squeeze it as the third party though they will still try.
If you take the notional majority of a ciuple of percent then add A and B even after c as been deducted i think Greg Mulholland will hang on. A Conservative gain is not impossible particulalry with polls showing 45% nationally but unlikely.
329, cast-iron support would mean that voters would dislike Labour even more. They’d not just loathe Brown, but the PLP for lacking the guts to axe him.
324. What is possible and what is not possible is not known until it is tried (and not always then if those trying to do it mess it up). Most commentators would have said that Mrs Thatcher was being dishonest when she argued that Britain should get a rebate from the EEC as that would be equally ‘impossible’ to get other countries to agree to.
RodC
Your selective quoting of facts are all part of your insistence with 2010 being NOM.
Two years ago I expected a hung parliament as well but as the facts have changed so I now expect a Conservative majority.
You on the other hand prefer to move the goalposts so that you do not have to modify your predictions eg you said that the Conservatives needed to gain Crewe by 5000 votes to be on course for a general election win, it ended up a Conservative gain by almost 8000.
As to your list I don’t think the Conservatives have any real chance in Newport E or Norwich S. They do however have a good one in Leeds NW although I expect the LibDems still to win there.
I would agree with you that Derby N is the best chance of a Conservative gain from third place.
322 - smart move, can see the logic behind that.
Overall result of the GE has become easier to predict after the events of the past 6 weeks, but individual seat markets have got more difficult eg James Gray in Wiltshire North. Next GE is going to be even more of a microcosm seat by seat analysis required than was the case with the 2005 GE in my opinion now.
I expect NO Labour resignations or disciplining.
This will give the BNP what it needs: ammunition to diss Labour in Labour areas.
Given the fact that the Conservative Opposition in these areas is often carp, a BNP vote is attractive,
Watch Stoke on Trent as an example. All Labour MPs and Conservatives nowhere. A strong BNP presence.
As for gordon leaving, only a GE will make him go.. and then after postal voting on a massive scale imo.
320
Phil
A No Confidence motion means Gordon is safe as Leader until 2010 and Labour activists will give up in frustration..
334
The Thatcher rebate was about the relatively simple matter of money. Cameron is proposing two things which are far more fundamental; leaving the CFP - can you really see Spain or portugal agreeing to that? - and abandoning the Lisbon treaty.
Neither of these things will be acceptable to the rest of the EU. But nor do they go anywhere near far enough in ending undue EU influence over the UK.
NOw I would be glad of a Tory win at the next election if only to get rid of Brown for a generation or two. But I have no illusions about what Cameron will be able to do with regard to the EU. More to the point of this discussion, nor does he. He knows he cannot fulfill the promises he has made andas such the whole Tory position on the EU is a lie.
Woke up late today sweating like a pig. Well they call it Piggy flu, so may as well sweat like one.
On the posts re, UKIP: there is only on e noticeable name and that is Nigel Farage, the rest are just dross.
On the BNP: I believe that they will increase their vote considerably in the coming EU elections, perhaps even winning one or two seats. It’s still hard to say - so much is in flux now - if these elections and the locals on the same day will prove to be a ‘take off moment’ for them, with regard to national politics.
318 : Ted @ 12:35
There seems to be an inconsistency in your argument.
You state that people will vote for the likes of the BNP because the mainstream parties are not dealing with the issues that matter to those voters.
You then suggest that the solution is to tell those voters that the policies of the BNP, which do address the issues of voters’ concern that ignored by the mainstream parties, are wrong.
How does your proposed solution address the problem you have identified?
335. I have not moved any goalposts. My estimate (and it was a very fuzzy estimate) was based on the Tories sustaining the C&W performance for the next few by-elections. They didn’t.
I was also one of the very few who were quite bullish on the Tories chances in C&W to begin with!
The reasonable conclusion is that the Dunwoody factor significantly boosted the Tory performance in C&W, producing a sui generis outcome that did not hold a wider portent…
I have done quite a lot of research on the BNP too and blogged about it recently.
I think they will take a surprisingly large slice of the action both at local and EU elections. Hope I am wrong.
http://plato-says.blogspot.com/2009/04/could-bnp-get-as-big-as-le-pen-in.html
http://plato-says.blogspot.com/2009/05/peter-hain-gets-serious-kicking-on-cif.html
http://plato-says.blogspot.com/2009/03/bnp-what-labour-has-to-be-afraid-of.html
342 - Er, you mean Glasgow East and Glenrothes?!
re 342. What a load of tosh Rod. How can you equate any by-election since C&N with what happened last May?
re 342. I have never seen anything from you that is as shallow as that comment.
If Cameron get into office *before* the Lisbon Treaty is ratified by *all* countries, he can reverse our ratification. That puts him in an extraordinarily strong position, because there is *no* new agreement without our permission.
No. No. No.
It is close to impossible to unpick the locks however, once the key has being turned however. A different approach however can work.
A reassessment of the role of the EU is not only necessary in the UK, but across Europe, there was a reason why so few countries held a referendum on the treaty, it was because they would lose.
Rengotiations can be based on first principles. Integration has gone to far, and we want repatriation of the following competences x,y,z. In return, we will actively co-operate in supporting other states who wish to integrate further.
347 - I agree entirely. The Conservative position on Europe is extremely subtle and will give Cameron significant negotiating power provided the Lisbon Treaty has not been ratified. There are sufficient rats in the euro-sack to make that a probability as far as June 2010 is concerned.
Thos who predict a BNP surge are forgetting the level of the antifascist campaign this year, which, as they polls today show, are ensuring their vote is declning the nearer we get to the election
And as the Predict09 website suggests, their vote will be down in June
@305 Phil C
As they (&this) get better known, perhaps they will see a need to rebrand themselves.
“New BNP”
“Whiter than White”
“Nick Griffin - a straight kind of guy”
Worked before..
In 2004 at this stage of the run up to the Euro Elections the BNP’s poll rating was between 1% and 2%. Recent polls say 4%. Is it not possible that the polls constantly under estimate the BNP support by as much as 50%?.
Considering the economic and political environment, recently big votes in the locals, consider year on year a slow but consistent growth in the voter base since 2004. Then ask yourself, will the BNP vote be near the same levels as 2004?
I would be very very surprised if the BNP don’t make it to at least 7%
I agree with Plato about the BNP, I hope earnestly I am wrong, but they could poll 14% not 4% as todays poll suggested.
I also struggle with Lib Dems at 19% in the Euros.