More by-election fun in Norwich North
June 6th, 2009
Now for some betting action…
I spent all of yesterday with Iain Dale and Hopi Sen on the PLAY Talk Radio show covering the local election results, the PM’s press conference, the mother of all reshuffles, and general political debates of the day. By my reckoning we had between 4 and 6 months’ news yesterday, but the 9-and-a-half hour show was topped with a PoliticalBetting.com cherry: a competitive by-election sparked by the resignation of Labour MP Dr Ian Gibson in Norwich North. I could almost hear you all cheering as soon as the news was announced.
The results from 2005 gave Gibson a 5,459 (11.6%) majority - with Labour (44.9%), Conservative (33.2%), LibDem (16.2%), Green (2.7%), UKIP (2.4%), and Independent Bill Holden (0.7%).
The constituency is due for boundary changes at the next General Election which will remove the wards of Drayton and Taverham (increasing Labour’s notional majority). However, the by-election will be fought on the old boundaries, helping the Conservatives.
So what about candidates? I should declare something of an interest: the Conservative PPC, Chloe Smith, is a friend of mine from university, and irrespective of politics (we disagree about plenty) I think she is a formidable candidate who would make an excellent MP. Now that Dr Gibson has announced he will not be running as an Independent (the Labour Party’s Star Chamber barred him from being chosen for their nomination last week), most of us assumed that Stephen Morphew (Labour Leader of Norwich City Council) would take the nomination - however, he has recently ruled himself out of such a bid.
The Liberal Democrats had not chosen a PPC for this seat, and any chosen PPC would have had to reapply for the by-election anyway. Some rumours are already circulating that Nick Starling (aka Norfolk Blogger) might make use of the fact that he is both on the approved candidates’ list and lives in the constituency.
Glen Tingle is the expected candidate for UKIP, and Independent Bill Holden will surely run, adding another to the Independent candidacy of Craig Murray (former UK Ambassador to Uzbekistan, who ran against Jack Straw in Blackburn in 2005, winning 5% with 2,082 votes).
The Greens are expected to put up a significant challenge here - other than Oxford and Brighton, this is the city most likely to return a Green MP. They are currently the second largest group on the City Council with 13 Councillors (behind Labour with 15, but well ahead of the LDs’ 6 and the Conservatives’ 5). However, when you examine the wards in play in the Northern constituency (as opposed to those in Charles Clarke’s constituency of Norwich South), the Greens appear to be concentrated around the University and other southern wards. They doubled their Westminster vote in Norwich South last time, but only increased by about 1% in the northern constituency in 2005.
As with any by-election, it is important to know the local issues that could lead to an unfaithful adherence to (and occasionally an abrogation of) the national expectations. Norwich seems to this outsider to be dominated by Housing and the new proposed status as a Unitary Authority. The former saw a national scandal, whereby the Council had evicted residents from LA-owned properties, only to see the Council’s own housing officers move in at a drastically-reduced rent.
The second local issue is a better wedge - Norwich is the largest UK city to not have unitary authority status. Such a bid for UA status is supported by Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens, but opposed by the remaining District Councils (such as Broadlands), PCTs, Police and Probation services and the majority of the surrounding 180 Parish Councils. If the Conservatives actively oppose the bid, this could be the key issue in this by-election.
The role of Ian Gibson himself in this is fascinating. In resigning from Parliament, he has forfeited the Golden Parachute that MPs get if they retire or lose at a General Election. His move has been seen as honourable (and all I hear about the man suggests that, expenses aside, he is), but do not miss the deliberate politicking that this highly-intelligent MP has employed. He is punishing Labour for a perhaps-harsh barring of his renomination, giving them a difficult by-election that could further hurt Gordon Brown. He has ruled out standing as an Independent, forcing Labour to contest. He is no longer attackable by his expected opponents over expenses, but can employ his considerable personal support in the constituency for the Labour candidate at his discretion. The extent to which he is a benign or mischievous element in this by-election could make all the difference.
Timing will be key. Three months is allowed for moving the writ, which would take us into Party Conference Season in the Autumn - this is to be avoided. If there is to be a Labour recovery, all potential pitfalls (and this is surely one of them) should have been passed. The summer holiday and Parliamentary recess take out much of the Summer, so I would suggest that it would be best for Labour to move the writ quickly, and to hold the election in perhaps as little as four to five weeks. Wait any longer, and the threat of a bloodied nose will simply hang over attempts to relaunch the party’s momentum under a new Cabinet.
I won’t be betting significant sums on this - my judgement is liable to be clouded by knowing one of the candidate’s personally, and I have a rotten record in English by-elections - but I cannot help but suspect that when the bookies price this one up, that the Conservatives will be narrowly odds-on to win this seat. The question is whether this added pressure will have any significance beyond making Gordon Brown feel even more uncomfortable - which after all, is perhaps the reason that Dr Gibson precipitated it in the first place.
Morus
From Robert: we’ve been having some bizarre issues with the “wrong” site coming up. I’ve reset the DNS settings at Register.com, and hopefully that will solve the issue. I am planning a fairly major upgrade in the next couple of weeks - to twin load balanced servers - that will hopefully mitigate a lot of the issues we’ve had, as well as give us an approximately 3-fold increase in capacity. And I guess if this fund management lark doesn’t work out, I can always look for a career in Linux systems administration…
MessageSpace Advertising
First ?
That’s insomnia for you
3rd .. oh my
comment posted on Labourhome..
“It’s worse than that. I’m trying to apply Labour’s numbers in East Anglia to the coming general election, and they herald a rout. We’re not talking the Tories 1997. We’re talking Canada’s Progressive Conservatives 1993.
I’ll post a link once I’ve finished crunching the numbers and put them online. They’re terrifying, and show why we need the poll bump that Gordon resigning will give us.”
Ooops .. someone gets it! Be nice to see those numbers.
Blimey! How am I supposed to keep up when it takes about 27 hours a day to read all of the day’s new messages, and when three new threads appear just while I’m catching up? Can’t we go back to a mythical golden age of the 1950s with only two parties, modest swings, balanced elections, and competent politicians who have experience in life and a sense of duty to the community? This modern trendy fashion of incompetent desperate ministers, frenzied resignations, protest votes, and six main parties to bet on, is taking up far too much of my time. If there are going to be more than three thousand new messages each day then I won’t have time to do other things with my life. Don’t these people realise that I’ve got a backlog of books waiting to be read?
I predict that the Conservative Party might just manage to squeak through and win this by-election, if the lefty vote is split by the Illiberal Undemocrats and Greens.
Labour (44.9%), Conservative (33.2%), LibDem (16.2%). Looks like the sort of seat the Tories would by expected to take in a by-election if they’re headed for a decent majority, which the markets think they are. Tories should be better than “narrowly odds-on”, I’d have thought.
Obviously all politics is local, but do the voters really care about this Unitary Authority business?
FPT for Mr Loony
Aaron says:
6/6/2009 at 2:34 am
Will UKIP get 15 seats or more? I’m quite exposed on the 14 or fewer side of this bet and would appreciate an answer from the night shift (yes, Mr. Loony, that means you) so I can decide whether or not to take a little evasive action…
I would say yes, polls look like it and the canvassing reports I’ve heard suggest they’ve been doing well.
Aaron- My best guess is that it is a 4-5 shot that UKIP will get 15 or more Seats.
It was very hard to split them and LD for 2nd place but in the end I went for UKIP.
One thing struck me on Thursday was the last-minute switching of a lot on here from UKIP to CON.I know that the denizens of pb.com are atypical…….but.
My own position on UKIP v LAB is fairly bland now and is all green with the biggest win on the TIE and the smallest on LAB.
Also I voted for the Tories to be in the highest band….but what do I know ?
Great poll and very useful.
Regarding the fun at Norwich North, a lot depends on the timing.If the by-election were next Thursday I wouldn’t expect Labour to be in the first two and would have it CON-GREEN.
Sorry, but is one expected to treat seriously a thread about “fun in Norwich”.
7. No
There are more important things to think about today - hard to believe though that might be.
Remember them
Gosh, it’s a slow news day - nobody has resigned yet and it’s nearly 6.00 AM!
Those who missed it may wish to check out yesterday’s car crash of a press conference here
A walk for Chloe Smith. I’d price her at 1/5.
Isn’t there a significant chance there won’t be a by-election here at all, given where we stand at the moment?
The chances of backbenchers actually having 71 signatures must be fair to middling — and if they have there is a sporting chance Brown may step down, I would have thought; if the outcome of a leadership election is change in leader, there is a high chance s/he will go straight to the country, isn’t there?
I’d say this by-election is only 75% certain to take place.
If it does, I’d agree with Robert from Tokyo at 6 — I can’t see anything beyond a Conservative win on the evidence of yesterday and the polls generally, even allowing for the idiosyncrasies of by-elections. If I were a betting man (which I’m not) I would expect the forthcoming Glasgow by-election to be a lot closer than this one.
Broken again, had to use IP address… whats going on???
Ladbrokes - Glasgow North East by-election
Labour evens
SNP evens
Independent 10/1
Conservatives 100/1
Liberal Democrats 100/1
Robert if you are out there - can’t access site via Blackberry - either loads April with no archive for May/June or if I use a direct thread linkk it comes up with a blank page.
Thanks for that, Stuart. I’d offer 4/1 on the majority at Norwich North being smaller than the majority at Glasgow North-East. Not that I’m a betting man (he adds, quickly, having married a Methodist)
Comedy moment on R5 - presenter opened the news broadcast with ‘There have been no further resignations…’
Well that’s all right then
Test
YouGov/Daily Telegraph
Westminster voting intention - Scotland
Sample size: 410
Fieldwork: 2-3 June 2009
(+/- change from UK GE 2005)
SNP 33% (+15)
Lab 25% (-14)
Con 18% (+2)
LD 16% (-7)
oth 10%
20. Glad to be of service Stephen.
17. IJ
Same here.
Robert, you have serious DNS problems.
I cannot surf into the site from ANY computer, using ANY operator, using ANY web browser.
The ONLY way to get here is to surf in on the ip-address, then click on current thread link, resulting in white page, then paste in the ip-address again, then make a comment.
Only THEN does the computer resolve the DNS problem.
Funnily enough, the mobile phone version DOES work, UNTIL you press “Comments” -> then your f**ked.
Thanks again, Stuart…
I hadn’t seen that poll: it makes evens for the SNP look quite attractive. Presumably the question YouGov asked was specifically aimed at the by-election.
How come the Tories are on 18%? I really must go out and buy the updated Criddle and Waller I promised myself…
I’d also like to add that the service provided by the PB team over at PB.com Channel 2 was UTTER UTTER CRAP: zero information whatsoever about the problems at the main site.
I had to rely on an Anonymous poster who explained the dns workaround.
Mike, you are letting down you customers badly here. ASAP when a technical problem occurs, you MUST put up info about it at Channel 2.
Morus identifies the KEY local issue - the unpopular proposed council reorganisation in Norfolk.
The resignation of Hazel Blears provides John Denham with an opportunity to abandon once and for all her unpopular and unworkable proposals for unitary status local government in Norfolk, which is especially unpopular in Norwich North.
District Council tax in Labour-held Norwich City is nearly twice> that in neighbouring Conservative-controlled Broadland District, which forms about half the Norwich North constituency. Nobody wants to pay more tax, which would inevitably be the case if those leafy parts of Broadland were to be absorbed into the City in a Unitary Reorganisaton.
When Ms Blears was appointed local government secretary in 2007 she vigorously pursued her vision of “large government” reorganisation for Norfolk oblivious to the fact that with a population approaching one million and an area of over 2,000 square miles the county is simply too big to be served by just one or two very large councils.
Another useless Public Sector reorganisation program, it was her vanity project to press-on with proposals in Norfolk, Suffolk and Devon [CON-gain]. The events of yesterday mean she’s screwed the Labour Party twice in a week with those new unitaries created last year in the first wave in Wiltsire, Cornwall, Bedfordshire & Shropshire which were a total disaster for Labour.
Unless Denham is on a death wish, he will surely now cancel Blear’s vanity project in a last ditch attempt to save Norwich North. Because if he doesn’t, you can pile on the money for a Chloe Smith victory and the inevitable general election that will follow.
In an open letter to new Secretary Denham yesterday, Norfolk’s local authority leaders said
“Millions of pounds have been spent on this folly [the LGR process] so far but this is nothing compared to the bill that would be inflicted upon local taxpayers should this proceed. At a time the economy can least afford it and when there are so many better things for public money to be spent on, we call upon you to call a halt to this unpopular and unnecessary process without delay.”
They might well have added the words “…if you want to stand any chance of winning in Norwich North.”
26. Stephen - “Presumably the question YouGov asked was specifically aimed at the by-election.”
No. The question was asked throughout Scotland (not just in GlasNE), and asked about Westminster GE voting intention.
One of the most important topics of conversation, will be the ‘Pedestrianisation of Norwich City Centre’.
On topic:
If the Tories can’t win the North Norwich by-election - with a HANDSOME MAJORITY - in the current political climate, then they aren’t worth toffee.
End of story.
Jeepers Creepers: they only need a 6% swing!! Six percent!!!! That’s NOTHING. FFS.
28. The district council portion of the Council Tax will be very small, probably about £200 of band d £1200 ish total.
SkyBet - Brighton Pavillion
Labour 11/8
Conservative 11/8
Green 7/2
Lib Dem 20/1
29 — well in that case, with a protest vote even more likely to go SNP’s way in a by-election, (a) the value on Evens for the SNP looks even better, and (b) perhaps neither by-election will be that close…
Thanks again for the info you’ve provided, by the sound of it under the most trying of circumstances…!
Paddy Power - Aberdeen South
Labour 11/8
Liberal Democrats 2/1
Conservatives 10/3
SNP 13/2
34. Your empathy is much appreciated Stephen.
I am not the world’s most patient/tolerant individuals. But, after a good rant, one moves on in life …
Danny Alexander at 9/1 ?!? Shoorley shome mishtake.
Victor Chandler - Next Liberal Democrat Leader
Chris Huhne 5/2
Vince Cable 5/1
Ed Davey 8/1
Danny Alexander 9/1
David Laws 12/1
J Goldsworthy 12/1
Michael Moore 12/1
Nick Harvey 12/1
Alistair Carmichael 20/1
Sarah Teather 20/1
Jeremy Brown 25/1
Simon Hughes 33/1
David Howarth 33/1
Tavish Scott 33/1
Kirsty Williams 40/1
Charles Kennedy 40/1
Lynne Featherstone 40/1
Alan Beith 50/1
Norman Lamb 50/1
hmm, Saturday, hope the next installment of King Lear meets MacBeth meets Hamlet meets The Tempest isn’t going to be on hold for the weekend.
19. There’s a fix for that described in one of the comments in the pb2 blog.
I think Morus has undestimated the Green vote in Norwich North. On the basis of yesterdays County Council results they look a real threat, especially to Labour and the Lib Dems, This could be their moment, a by election in the best possible place for them.
I expect them to poll in the region of 20% and could come second.
However I will put a bet on them to win, get the odds today, hopefully 20-1
Glasgow NE adds to the size of Labour’s headache here. I would expect the Conservatives and Lib Dems to run a token effort there, leaving it to the SNP and throw everything at Norwich. Labour have no choice but to fight both very hard when activist morale is taking a severe battering.
32 The district council portion of the Council Tax will be very small, probably about £200 of band d £1200 ish total.
You make my point for me. The Broadland [Conservative] part of Council Tax is about £110 whereas the Norwich [Labour] part is about £200.
Yet services are better in Broadland whereas Norwich is incompetently run, the sort of council where old-dears are evicted from sheltered accommodation and City housing officials move in with their boyfriends at cheaper rents. Just google “Greyhound Opening Norwich” to see for yourself. The scandal been in the local press for months.
Meanwhile the EDP sets the scene http://www.edp24.co.uk/content/edp24/news/story.aspx?brand=EDPOnline&category=NewsSplash&tBrand=EDPOnline&tCategory=xDefault&itemid=NOED04%20Jun%202009%2008%3A28%3A42%3A707
I’d have thought the Tories wouldn’t even be narrowly odds on to win this - they’d be stronger favourites than that. Smith seems a credible candidate for the Tories, and I hope Starling stands as he would put up an excellent showing for the Lib Dems. I rather wonder which sane Labour candidate would want to do it.
The bigger question really is whether the by-election will ever happen or whether the Government will fall before then.
OT. Some information on a couple of labour/con marginal constituencies in Cumbria, based on the County Council results:
Copeland (the conservative candidate is a frequent PB contributor):
Conservative 8,979
Labour 7,900
BNP 3,250
Liberal Democrat 1,558
Green 559
Independent 477
UKIP 180
And Carlisle:
County council election votes, based within Carlisle Constituency, lab, Con and BNP stood in all wards, the others includes the greens and independents, turnout was up from 22,000 to 24,000.
2009
Con 38.65% (9582)
Lab 29.2% (7241)
Lib 15.22%
BNP 9.02
others 7.93%
Compared to 2008:
Con 40.13% (9074)
lab 34.68% (7842)
lib 17.43%
bnp 11.1%
others 3.89%
38 Thanks will have a look
38 Had a scan through the 114 comments and can only see others with same problem.
If I’m going blind do let me know!
45 From Scipio’s comment
any page can be accessed clicking on the link you want and replacing
politicalbetting.com
with
87.106.214.196
in the full web address.
Henry W adds “I resolved it by using the ip address instead of politicbetting.com, then when I got the white page replaced name with ip address”
45 Had similar problems yesterday on my mobile, went to April page…Likewise after Parnell resigned, PB1 crashed, no info or current pages on PB2. This site is so good, can’t manage without it at fast moving times!
James@42, Not only that, according to some of the old comments at UK Polling Report Ian Gibson had a strong personal vote.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/norwichnorth?cp=all#comments
Add that to a general incumbent effect and knock it off the current figures, throw in governments having a harder time motivating their supporters in by-elections than oppositions, and you could see the Tories taking this seat even if the underlying position was the same as 2004.
Add the fact that the underlying position of Brown vs Cameron may in fact be - ahem - significantly worse than Blair vs Howard in 2004, and this should be a slam-dunk for the Tories.
If the Conservatives don’t win this one quite comfortably, they’ve got major problems ahead at the general election. I expect that they will win this one quite comfortably.
One good thing about this by-election is that it will focus attention on one of England’s more beautiful cities that is far less well-known than it should be. Because it is geographically remote, it has kept its own character far better than most cities have.
Much thanks to Morus and bunnco for the head’s up on the big local issue in Norwich North.
It does look set fair for the Tories, though a couple of potential problems do strike me.
(i) If either the LibDem or Green candidate can establish themselves early as clearly the main rival to the Tory, left of centre votes (which will be fleeing toxic Labour) may rally to them.
(ii) Some celebrity - Esther Rantzen, or similar - will muddy the waters by trying to use the by-election to promote their failing career…sorry, I mean taking a bold, principled stand against sleazy politicians.
45. “Use 87.106.214.196 to get the main page then copy 87.106.214.196 then goto the comments you will get the white page look at the address and it will be http://politicalbetting.com/etc delete http:// politicalbetting.com and replace with http://87.106.214.196/etc this will resolve the comments page and if you want to look at old comments just click on old comments and do the same it is working for me”
Then when you get to the right page with comments loaded make a “test” comment yourself and it seems to be fixed - worked for me anyway.
46 - The key to making the fix work permanently is to post a comment otherwise you have to keep replacing the name with the IP address…
43 - Gaz, your percentages for your 2008 figures add up to 107%
40. Andrew - “I would expect the Conservatives and Lib Dems to run a token effort there, leaving it to the SNP and throw everything at Norwich. Labour have no choice but to fight both very hard when activist morale is taking a severe battering.”
Spot on Andrew.
Remember, Ian Gibson is a Scot (he comes from Dumfries and was educated at the University of Edinburgh - Gordon Brown’s alma mater). He knows ALL about the Dirty Scottish Labour Mafia Party (head honcho: Gogsie Broon), and has executed an exquisite twist of the knife in the guts of the aforementioned Fencepost Tortoise.
Labour will be in full panic mode, both in East Anglia, and in their West Central Scotland heartland.
I canvassed in Norwich in 2007, for a council seat won by one vote.
The Greens were the main threat to the LDs then, and may be worth a punt here, as they will have plenty of resources to throw at this and are clean from expenses. I’d expect them to take plenty of votes off us, and unless UKIP play a blinder, the Tories could have an easier ride - they probably start as deserved favourites.
Test
Sky’s more extensive council results at 8am in Net terms.
http://tinyurl.com/rylbq6
Labour lost all 4 councils they were defending and a net loss of 329 councillors. Most forecasts I read expected a bad day would be 200 losses.
2 out of every 3 seat that Labour was defending it lost. = Worse than expected.
LDs lost 2 Councils net (Cornwall, Devon and Somerset). LDs nett loss of 48 councillors. Forecasts I read, expected LDs to hold their position with little overall change. Just over 1 in 10 of the seats that LDs were defending they lost. = Worse than expected.
Conservatives gained (net) control of 7 Councils and a net gain of 285 councillors. Expectations were that 200+ would be a good result. = A bit better than expected in councillors and a lot better than expected in the number of councils gained.
“Honest” Ed Davey now performing in the media today, the “Chris Huhne role” of spinning this as a set of good results for the LDs and bad for the Conservatives……
test
53. i dont have the spreadsheet in front of me, will check later, but the raw votes are correct…
This by elesction is exactly what the Tories should put away without much fuss.
Looks like they have a decent candidate in place as well.
A shame it wasn’t a Wiggin-like twit in place for comedy value, but never mind.
50 Aristotle. Forget about “celebrities”, I suggest. When it comes to the crunch, what celebrities are going to commit themselves to a job that they know nothing about(and probably don’t like), for up to 5 years,at much lower pay,where moonlighting may be considered irresponsible - and where they will be viewed as freaks.
I’d been struck by the sheer venom of comments from Brownites and Blairites over the last couple of days, an impression that was reinforced by Nick Jones (ex-BBC) on BBC Radio Wales this morning. He said it reminded him of Labour factions fighting in the 1980s. Gordon Brown’s final gift to the Party?
They also interviewed Tony Benn, who wants a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. I guess he’ll be joining the Conservatives soon.
60. Oh, I agree. The words celebrity and freak are interchangeable as far as I’m concerned. It’s just that, like moths to a lamp, they go where the cameras are. And, pretty soon, that’s going to be Norwich North.
61. John Marston - “Gordon Brown’s final gift to the Party?”
Gogsie Broon is writing the Labour Party’s epitaph.
Good riddance to bad rubbish.
Workaround for those whose computers load the April page
If you get the April page when coming into pbc, if you click on one of the articles, the full archive appears down the left (on the front page it only goes through to April). Clicking on ‘June 2009′ will take you to the latest articles.
This is a pain and I’m sure that Robert is doing all he can to sort out the problems.
Tim - was this the best smear that the ‘dark arts’ unit could comeup with about Cameron
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1191155/Claims-David-Cameron-30m-fortune-sit-uneasily-taxpayers-So-truth-money.html
It is more complementory than an expose!!!
Betting thoughts from these results?
I am, I admit, puzzled by the reaction of the LD blogs to these results. At a stroke they have lost control of the 3 South West counties that they had. This is one of the main LD heartland areas. There are 12 LD seats covered in these areas. They lost 57 county seats in these 3 counties.
As Mark Senior might say, “ah but look at the by election results in the parish seat of snickley bottom”
56 - It’s quite sweet in a way seeing all these people clutching onto the BBC percentages as the definitive judgement on how the parties have done.
Before this election all the “experts” were saying that the Conservatives getting close to 200 seats would be about 40% of the vote. That they gained close to 300 seats on 38% of the vote would suggest to most that they are getting votes where they need them.
Getting votes where you need them is THE reason why there is a claimed “bias” in the electoral system requiring the Conservatives to get a 10% lead for a bare majority. If they are now getting votes where they need them, and Labour are getting them where they aren’t, then the 10% lead rapidly turns from bare majority into landslide.
64 - On my PDA it won’t even allow me to open one of the articles.
Next act either:
The Massacre of the Blairensheviks and the purging of New Labour
or
The historically correct triumph of Comrade McRasputin, undying scourge of the running dogs of capitalism.
Going back to C Flint, she never gave the impression of thoughtfulness and in responses in interviews seemed to spout a gush of intelligible briefings, but not necessarily in the right order. For me she had a touch of the Bet Lynch but with a brain in Winnie The Pooh territory. I think Brown actually made a correct assessment of her - female token not up to the job - and was right to let her go.
66. LDs may have taken a knock as the tectonic plates crash and smash but there’s a golden opportunity in amongst it all when the dust finally settles.
Mr Jones, what we are seeing is a completly new play, ‘The Tragicomedy of Gordon the Turd’
Just to let you know at the verification yesterday the turnout in the LBS(Sutton) for the europeans was 35.6%
65 - Since I can remember the Daily Mail has been a Conservative supporting paper.
Some of the posters on here, who would have us believe in a worldwide anti-Tory conspiracy need to get a grip.
By the way, the article should pose the question of whether the Cameron Family are involved a
Ten Million Pound Inheritance Tax Avoidance Scheme Shocker..
Correct Carlisle 2008 figures (including boundary changes for next election):
Con: 9074 (37.42%)
Lab: 7842 (32.34%)
LibD: 3942 (16.26%)
BNP: 2508 (10.34%)
Other: 879 (3.63%)
73 - The last desperate move of a Half Dead PM. Most family’s manage their IHT exposure, mine included, my friends & my work colleagues. It shows they are no different to most of the population.
Norwich North has to be a solid Tory gain at the by-election if the Conservatives are looking at government after the GE.
Those who are looking to the Greens are almost certainly making a mistake. The style of campaigning that the Greens go in for will be overwhelmed and as they are starting from a nominally low base, they’ll struggle to get coverage in the national media. I’d expect something like Crewe & Nantwich, where the Lib Dems harboured hopes of breaking into the top two pre-polling day and then doing their ‘two-horse race’. They didn’t and the Greens (whose by-election machine is pre-industrial) stand even less chance.
Local factors shouldn’t be ignored but neither should they be overrated. Such Labour councils and councillors as were defending their positions yesterday weren’t voted out because they became useless overnight; they were swept away in a tidal wave directed at No10 and Westminster. So in Norwich (where the local factors look to reinforce the national position anyway).
To my mind, any return better than 1/2 for the Conservatives ought to be worth taking.
73. absolutely *nothing* wrong with people putting their private finances into the most tax advantageous position possible within the law. If you dont like it change the law. Your party has had twelve years.
You fail to understand the difference between public and private, a failure of most socialist authoritarians.
If Cameron was running his assets as a limited company, he would be committing a criminal offence under the companies act to not arrange the assets of the organisation under the most tax efficient way possible.
Did a quick summation of the changes over the 2006-2009 local government election cycle (England & Wales)
Conservatives +1769 seats, +69 councils
Labour -1486 seats, -38 councils
Lib Dems -259 seats, -4 councils
must be towards the top for Conservatives in terms of local Government in England & Wales now, 2006 seats up next and hard to see Conservatives improving much on the vote shares last time (Rallings & Thrasher) 39:26:25. 2010 Locals will (assuming the Zombie Government stagger on till May) be at same time as nationals.
73 - If Labour wants to go into bat on the basis that it is going to tax all gifts, I would be confidently selling Labour on the spreads at 150.
77 - of course any MP avoiding Capital Gains Tax has merely done the same.
Either should be wary of moralising too much about others.
On your figures
Copeland and Carlisle look recoverable for Labour in a GE.
BTW on the BBC % can someone explain what seems to me like a massive anomaly, which seems ostensibly to drive a coach and horses through their methodology. From LibDem Voice:
“Interesting set of vote share results from the BBC based on the first few hundred council seat results, where they are giving the following numbers:
Lib Dem - 28% (2005: 28% 2008: 25% )
Tory - 38% (2005: 31% 2008: 44%)
Labour - 23% (2005: 33% 2008: 24%)”
In 2005 the LibDem implied share was 28%. In the General Election held on the same day they got 22%.
In 2005 the Tories implied share was 31%. In the General Election, held on the same day they got 32%.
In 2005 the Labour implied share was 33%. In the General Election, held on the same day they got 35%.
This would suggest that the methodology is seriously flawed. The Conservatives and Labour were both understated by, whereas the LibDems were seriously overstated. I suspect that the main reason for this is the relatively small sample of urban voting which falsely extrapolates LibDem strength over the rest of the country.
Furthermore, it is surely the case that the BBC cannot continue to extrapolate to UK wide predictions following the rise of the SNP in Scotland. Labour strength in Scotland might provide another explanation for their being “underscored” by the model. If anything this could have reversed this time.
Anyway, just for fun, applying a “2005 filter” to the 2009 results gives:
Con 39 (possibly the magic 40 depending on roundings)
Lab 25
LibDem 22
Not quite so rosy for the LibDems now, is it?
Con 39
At last I can get on the site.
Could not view any comments for two days. Withdrawl symptoms were horrific.
Here in Norwich they think Gibsons seat may be very tight. Greens have a big influence here. Seven seats just went Green yesterday. Hard to say if Lib Dems or Labour will be hardest hit.
On the old boundaries Cons must be favourite.
73. Not so. The Mail has been a conservative paper but not always a Conservative paper.
80. Except there is a big difference between the situations: MPs voted themselves an exemption on CGT for second homes; by contrast, any wealthy family has the opportunity to minimise their tax exposure in the same way.
83 - I said “Conservative supporting”
Have they ever supported a Party other than the Conservatives in and election?
(not including the BUF)
81 - I rummaged around yesterday for the Anthony Wells article as to why local results are meaningless predictors for general elections, only to find it related only to local by-elections. However, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if a very similar article was written in relation to proper local elections.
For me, the most significant thing is the seat count. The Tories have evidently targeted seats with brutal efficiency. If they do the same in the general election, we are going to see them outperforming their nominal poll rating substantially.
73.Quite an impressive list of Labour spporting media at the moment now the Telegraph and the Mail are onboard.
81 (con) - is it also possible that the BBC fail to allow for the generally higher turnout in county council areas viz the rest of the country, particularly the urban north? With differential turnout currently worth 2-3% (on a votes/seats distribution basis) to Labour (if you applied a constant vote share to all seat results in 2005 then Labour would get closer to 38% than the 35% they got), then if the BBC are not accounting for this then one could add 2-3% to the Tory lead over Labour when plugging numbers into the electoral calculators.
84 - Er, i don’t think they did. The issue with CGT was that MPs were (legally) designating one home as their “main home” for expenses purposes, and then nominating the other one as their main home for CGT purposes.
Norwich is going to be odd. Gibson’s going to be campaigning for Labour. MIght be closer than people think.
80. Carlisle will be a knife edge seat, and labours vote has been quite resilient, but the tories are nudging up to 40% and Labour has for the first time i can remember, dropped below 30%.
Here is the 2004 result, this was carried out on an all postal vote, so the turnout is about 10% higher on average, but excludes the boundary changes for the next GE:
Con: 9164 34.32%
Lab: 9968 37.33%
lib: 4285 16.05%
Actual GE results:
Con: 11324 32%
Lab: 17019 48.1%
lib 5916 16.7%
maj: 5695
Notional 2005 results:
Con 13448 35.1%
Lab 17517 45.7%
LibDem 6180 16.1%
maj 4069
PB’s working fine on my PC but on my Nokia mobile phone I get an old page headed ‘Could this cost Labout dear next time?’ from 25 April. Anyone else having this problem? I’ve cleared the cache etc but still the same page appears every time
It should be pointed out anyway that whatever IHT arrangements Cameron’s parents have, they are not his responsibility.
91 - Do you have any figures for the BNP in yesterdays elections in Cumbria?
So, how many Euro seats do people think the parties will get tomorrow? I’m on a buy of Labour at 12 and also the supremacy of Labour over the Lib Dems in seats. Plus my sell of 32% turnout and what now looks likely to be a losing sell of BNP seats at 0.8. I’m expecting to make a profit, but the turnout bet could be volatile - any views?
67/81 The BBC’s projected national vote share is an artificial exercise, particularly when so many results come in from rural areas that have big votes for independents, and very local political parties.
Your point about getting votes where they’re needed is entirely right. Take, for example, Lincolnshire. The Labour vote fell by 11% across the County as a whole, but by 20% in the seats it was defending. It fell by only a few per cent in many rural divisions where they had very little support to begin with, but it collapsed in urban centres like Lincoln, Boston and Grantham. It would seem that this pattern was repeated right across the country.
78 If the 2010 locals are held at the same time as the GE, I’d expect us to hold our own. If we’re already in government by then, doubtles we’ll being slipping back.
89. That’s an effective exemption, allowing as it does two main homes - but I take your point.
89. Exactly, *public* money was being used in the process. As i said, Tim doesnt understand the difference between the Public Sphere and the Private Sphere.
92. Some of the earlier posts on this thread describe a fix.
94.
In Carlisle part of Cumbria the BNP got 9.02% of the vote, a drop on last year despite fielding candidates in every ward, in fact their results this year were quite derisory, while last year, it looked like a close run in a few wards, this year they have completely slipped back.
94 - David Herdson.
How many MPs could potentially be inheriting MPs second homes, either directly or through marriage.
Of the top of my head I can think of Hilary Benn,George Osborne,Nick Hurd and Bill Wiggin.
98 - I’m really hoping that UNS goes completely wrong next year. It’ll be so funny if you get people predicting a hung parliament or narrow majority on the basis of a Conservative 8-10% lead, and they end up with a huge majority (perhaps as a result of a large UKIP vote where it doesn’t matter).
Of course they went quite badly wrong in 1997, but this was hidden by the fact that a difference of 30-40 seats doesn’t make much difference in a landslide.
102 - Very good news.
104, it did seem to me bizarre that Tory majorities of 20 odd were being forecast.
They won 30/34 councils. They’ve got well more councillors than the Lib Dems and Labour combined. Share of the vote does not equate to seats won.
104 Interesting you raise 1997. I remember thinking as the first results were coming in from safe Labour seats, and we were seeing swings of 7-8% to Labour, “perhaps this won’t be too bad”. Once we got to more marginal seats, though, we started seeing swings of 10-18% against the Conservatives.
WRT IHT, if Cameron’s parents do have a tax-saving scheme in place, I’d say that’s very prudent of them.
Can someone tell the Sky presenters how to pronounce Bayeux? It is really irritating when it is pronounced incorrectly.
Hearing the inimitable Caroline Spellman say what the country wants more of is “Conservatives and a Conservative government” should send a chill down a few spines.
106 - Morris Dancer, the Conservatives won pretty much twice as many seats as all the others combined.
WRT the BNP, does anyone know their overall share in Essex? My impression is they were getting about 15% or so, in urban areas, and about 6% or so in the countryside, but the Essex website has gone down.
100 - I’m not one who subscribes to widely held view on MPs and CGT. I don’t see that there is any difference as long as MPs stayed within the law. The fact remains the Mortgage Interest Payments are not capital payments. One can question whether it was ever a good idea to encourage MPs to become property speculators by funding Mortgage Interest, but given the rules were what they are, I have no problem with MPs making legitimate profits (or losses), and avoiding tax legally out of their house purchases.
The far more serious issue with MPs is the flipping of homes to allow them to get several homes renovated at public expense, and indeed the extent to which renovation enhancing the capital value of houses should have been allowed.
Ref notional national shares.
I simply can’t work out how the Lib Dems get a 28% equivalent national share for Thursday’s locals. The last round was held in 2005 when there was a GE concurrently, giving a perfect baseline. The Lib Dems scored about 23% in that election. Yesterday, recontesting the same seats as were fought on the same day as that national 23% share, they had net losses of one council and a few dozen councillors - yet they alledgedly had a 5% higher share? Does not compute.
Ref Lib Dem leader market.
No value in the top two. Huhne will do well to hold his seat. Yes, he is building a good local base but is still mightily vulnerable at a general election, sitting on only a few hundred majority, especially if the Conservatives are back into the forties in vote share. Cable has a safer seat but is now getting on in years and has already bottled two leadership elections. He’ll be a week from his 67th birthday on election day if it’s in May next year, meaning he’d probably be into his seventies by the election following. Not ancient but no spring chicken either. With question marks over both main replacements, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Clegg lead the Lib Dems for another six or seven years.
Incidentally, voted on the prior thread this morning. I reckon a Tory vote share over 30%, followed by UKIP, Lib Dem and Labour.
I would’ve had my doubts about the running order, but after Labour collapsed in the locals I’m a little more sure.
Are we expecting any more resignations this weekend, or are they a weekday only thing?
Antifrank, only a Londoner could possibly describe Norwich as “geographically remote”.
115 - Or an Ipswich fan
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This is off topic, i have just had my attention drawn to it, if it is true it is quite frightening:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1190785/Police-target-innocent-youths-arrest-bid-increase-DNA-samples-database.html
“Youths with no criminal record are being targeted for arrest so their DNA can be logged on a database in the event they commit crimes.”
DNS Test type message
Waking up this morning and finding that Brown is still PM after the carnage of the last few days, is a bit surreal. And Mandy is supposedly effective Deputy PM.
It appears that Mandy saved Gordon’s neck the other night, calmly ringing around potential rebels like Flint and persuading them to go out and bat for Brown?
Has Mandy positioned himself to be caretaker PM if Brown is forced to step down?
115 - I’m from Norwich. And it is geographically remote. You drive to it, not through it and the nearest towns of comparable size, Ipswich and Cambridge, are 40 miles away. It is a very self-contained city.
116 - You have said many controversial things on this site, but THAT is utterly unforgiveable.
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114 - I think they could be as low as fifth MD if the Green’s do particularly well.
113 - David, see 83 on the last thread. On the BBC methodology the nationally projected LibDem share on the basis of county results in 2005 was 28%. This was at the same time as a real national election where they got 23%. It certainly needs some explanation.
111. I saw a few seats where it was around 10-16% but not sure if that was representative or not.
120, impossible. A peer as PM? Especially Mandelson, who isn’t exactly the most popular chap in the world.
125. “a few Essex seats” I meant to say.
I can’t see this being close. If the Tories are narrowly odds on that would not last long. We’d be biting Shadsy’s and his competitors’ hands off at anything approaching evens!
115 We see it as the capital of East Anglia.
Norfolk people like to “do different” so Gibsons seat may not be as simple as some think.
113. David Herdson. The notional national shares as I understand it, are calculated on the basis of a representative sample of seats that are fought by the three main parties over time. By weighting and balancing these properly we get the national share numbers. I’d guess that Bristol features heavily.
The picture is clouded by the fact that the Tories did very well, but it was in a set of elections where they would always expect to do well - the sample would have taken more marginal places as being representative. How one reconciles those results with the crushing of Labour in Staffordshire or the Liberal’s losses in the South West is open to debate. But I guess some marginal places showed fewer gains for the Tories than a landslide would predict - Cumbria perhaps?
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116 Don’t mention that place Tim.
We like to think of it as the Dark Side.
120. When you think Labour couldnt make it worse, we have the suggestion that Lord Mandelson becomes Prime Minister from the House of Lords, something I understand that is not constitutionally impossible.
“they whinge about lack of democratic mandate, i’ll give them lack of democratic mandate!”
Just watching the D-Day stuff on Sky, and you really have to cringe when you see Bob Ainsworth there as Defence Secretary.
120 - Mandelson is the most powerful man in the country now.
122 - Tractorist, Tractor stats, tractor tractor tractor.
Is Gordon an Ipswich fan?
118 - Shocking.
105. bnp got 14% in Copeland, but completely failed to make any headway in the seat they just narrowly failed to win in a by election a few months ago.
113/124 Generally speaking, the Lib Dems do better in local elections, than in a General Election on the same day. The BBC projected their support at 27% in the 2005 County elections, compared to the 23% they won in the General.
Given that they went backwards in this round of elections, though, a projected share of 28% makes no sense, unless they were really piling up votes in safe seats, and hopeless seats, while falling back sharply in marginal seats.
129 - I went to school in Ipswich from the age of 10. You can see why therapists stay in business.
135. What is worse, is that for many sensitive jobs, an arrest for anything(which would show up on an enhanced disclosure) would automatically exclude you from consideration for employment, and make visa applications in many cases quite difficult.
We are doing our youths a huge disservices.
Brown has shown himself to be a smart street fighter and against all the odds seems to have outfoxed them all. Opinion seems to be he’ll hold on and with this sort of political cunning it would be unwise to underestimate him next year.
130. Alex’s explanation at [124] makes a lot of sense: it was supposed to be a projection of local results held across the country, not the national share at a GE (although that’s how a lot of the commentators took it).
Even so, to claim they held steady when they lost about one in eleven seats they were defending (net) seems surprising. Unless they picked up vote share where they were otherwise not really in contention - which against 2005, with its backdrop of the Iraq War would be a good achievement (differential turnout cf a General Election?) - I’d have thought that would equate to being down two or three points.
Morning all. Did anyone catch on the news this morning that Henry Allingham, Britain’s oldest man and one of only 2 surviving British WW1 veterans turns 113 today? Quite a coincidence that his birthday coincides with D-Day!
On the issue of the reported “collapse” in Tory votes cast on Thursday, isn’t it disingenuous to be comparing with last year’s locals which included major cities which didn’t vote in the County Elections? I seem to remember that the Tories had done very well in places like Birmingham and Sunderland last year and could this be a factor in the year on year drop? Surely the more appropriate comparison is with the last Shire elections in 2005?
140 - He’s nowhere near out of the woods. MPs are in their constituencies this weekend taking soundings. They will see the EU election results and they’re going to need to be considerably better than at present seems likely for him not to get an awful lot more unrest next week.
133. The Defence Secretary of the past Bob Ainsworth reminds me of is Fred Mulley, who famously dozed off while sitting next to the Queen at a parade.
140. Don’t be so ridiculous Roger. Brown is dead in the water. Labour have killed him, but they lack the courage to remove him. So if Brown survivies we’ll be looking at 12 months with a lame duck PM, not to mention with a lame duck Chancellor. If you think Labour are hated now, just wait and see what its like after the British public have been forced to endure another 12 months of this shambles.
140. Equally it would be unwise to under estimate the contempt for him.
Just spoken to william hill cx - they’re going to settle the Tacqui Jacqui cease / remain as home secretary bets in the next 5 minutes.
While we’ve all been discussing the personalities on here it would be daft not to consider the rather startling rise in economic confidence surveys going on at the moment.
Settled
132. In the event of Brown stepping down with immediate effect, and a contested Labour leadership election, the temporary appointment of a PM who was not running in the election might be be sensible move, to avoid the Palace being seen to favour one candidate over another, and as a compromise between members of the cabinet, equally keen not to give any one of their number an advantage in the election.
Jack Straw was always the most likely option for that role but Mandelson couldn’t now be ruled out, if only because his seniority means he’d have to be considered and his lack of democratic mandate means that it could only ever be a temporary appointment.
140 - It’s always unwise to underestimate anyone. Fortunately i don’t think it is possible to do that with Brown.
Too many Labour supporters are confusing Brown’s ability to outmanoevre his fellow Labour Party politicians, with his ability to attract votes from the public. Frankly I think even the former is gross over-rated. The only defining thing which has kept him in his job is his utter refusal to contemplate stepping aside. What he has done really hasn’t shown much cunning.
Put the vast majority of politicians in the position of Prime Minister and give them one instruction: “stay in your job”, and most could have come up with the moves that Brown has done. Keeping Darling and Miliband in post wasn’t an example of political cunning. It was an example of doing anything necessary to remain in post.
The difference between Brown and most politicians is that most would have quit by now.
What relevance it is supposed to have to a General Election next year i have no idea. The British Public can’t be bullied by the threat of an immediate General Election.
re 140 for all his cunning, Roger, Brown has zero electoral appeal. He might be able to use his power and understanding of the Labour movement to stay there but he has never had to to anything in his career when he has had to get public support.
My long held view that he’s a massive electoral liability is even more so after this week. He simply doesn’t get how he’s perceived.
Labour with Brown at the helm at the general election will be out of power for decades. I’m 63 and firmly expect to live my final years out under the Tories.
148 - Problem is, Tim, that unemployment lags well behind these indicators and that is still going up and up and up and will do for many moons yet. There is simply not long enough in this Parliament to save Gordy.
On another subject, is it time for the seat calculator web-sites to start revising their views of the swing the Tories need to win a majority? What this CC result clearly shows is that the Conservatives have achieved greater results than the projected 38% share says they should. In the Rallings and Thrasher guide in the Sunday Times last week it said that if the Tories gain 250 seats it means they are on a 40%+ share of the vote and heading for Downing Street. What actually happened is that the Tories gained 275 seats on a 38% projected share. Clearly what we’re seeing is the Consvervatives seat targeting strategy in operation. This is a clear pointer for the general election that those who think the Tories need a huge swing to form the next government need to refise their calculations downwards somewhat. They will still need a big swing, but I think we’ve seen it won’t need to be as big as assumed.
150 - If the Queen could appoint Mandelson, then frankly she could appoint Cameron.
140. Ably abetted by Lord Mandelson (quite possibly soon to be reinvented as Comrade MandelTrotsky staunch Old Labourite).
155 - Or indeed any other relative.
Test post to try and resolve the ip problem. I have to paste the ip address in in order to get onto the site. Same thing happens on all browsers Firefox, IE & Chrome.
157 Most white English people are descended from William the Bastard, and thus, related to the Queen.
Sky news presenter this morning referred to Ed Balls as Gordon Brown’s crony - seems like the news journalists are at last beginning to deal with the Government with an appropriate level of respect
157 - You’re very funny. Are you really anticipating that the Labour campaign at the next election will centre around “David Cameron is the Queen’s cousin by marriage”?
You are aware that the Queen is the most popular figure in public life?
159. If Ed Balls is Browns crony, what does that makes Sir, sorry, Lord Alan Sugar?
157. LOL
155. A PM still needs to be able to command the support of a majority of the Commons, even if he or she isn’t in it. Labour still retains a majority there.
157. IIRC, the closest relative of HMQ in the Commons is a Lib Dem?
141. David Herdson. Actually the way the BBC phrases it is that the national share of the vote at a GE on the basis of 950 wards (in 2006) were as follows.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/vote2006/locals/html/region_99999.stm
But, we know that people vote differently in local and national elections, despite the attempt to clean it up by looking at “representative” wards. In the 2006 election it’s about a fifth of the total contested.
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152 - just one more reason for us hoping you have a very long life, Mike Smithson!
159. If you showed an appropriate level of respect to this government OFCOM would come down on you like a ton of bricks.
One story that made me laugh this was Prince Charles going all Nick Griffin on the Grey Squirrels ass.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1190627/Exterminate-Charles-declares-war-entire-population-grey-squirrels-save-native-reds.html
I think there should be an earned amnesty for those squirrels prepared to live here peacefully under our rules.
150 the appointment of a PM who is not in the commons would wipe Labour out permanently. The British electorate are not generally in favour of unaccountable, unelected dictators, especially ones that have been caught on the fiddle twice.
It was bad enough when Douglas-Home took the reins and stitched up a by-election, and that was in the dying days of empire.
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163 - She could appoint Cameron, he could lose a vote of confidence, and then he could ask for a dissolution!
152
Gosh I hope you live longer than 69 Mike!
First rule for a PM facing a coup: Don’t go to France!
Trying to predict the political future at the moment is a mugs game, who knows what is lurking out there? Who could have forseen the expenses debacle and what it would cause.
Welcome to the politics of the 21st century.
p.s.
I heard last night, (but haven’t seen it confirmed) that the long standing Tory councillor for this ward, lost to the Libdem by (after a recount) 3 votes.
172 - Is Boris in France picking up the wreath receipts off the floor?
.
Re Norwich North, obviously it depends on who the candidates are from Labour, Lib Dem and the Greens. As far as Wikipedia is concerned the only candidates selected are Conservative, UKIP and Independent.
Will Labour get someone big in and try to slug it out?
Will Gibson back whoever is selected?
Will Lucas parachute herself in for the Greens?
173 no, I think the PM is scoping out French properties he might be able to claim some extra money on, he has taken Phil Woolas with him, who is checking out the boutiques for some new summer outfits to show off his shapely legs. I think Hain is there scamming some slush funds for a campaign he is running for something and Johnson is hunting for a new sack cloth and some ashes.
Darling and Hoon are running around naked with wheelbarrows full of cash giggling and Purnell is torughing his arse off on the French gastronmic treats at £400 a week.
Mandelson is being reslimed on our tax ££s
I gave this a little bit of thought yesterday, but we haven’t priced it up yet. (There’s some other stuff going on). At a cursory glance, this looks like a nailed on Tory win and nobody is going to get rich backing them here. The 1/5 quoted upthread looked like a good estimate.
140 Roger, sorry but a bit of a rant.
Labour activists in the counties have just suffered a massacre, 4 counties without a single Labour councillor, many others with only 1, 2 or 3 where they were well into double figures before. The leadership are blaming expenses or Hazel Blears but it’s Gordon Brown that has tipped the scale from poor to really bad.
As a Tory I’m happy to see Gordon cling on, his authority diminished, his Cabinet weakened (no more glad confident morning for Miliband or Johnson as the hope of the commentariat, they are already talking now of Ed Miliband rather than Alan Johnson). He can only help achieve a Conservative Government. As a citizen I want him and his entourage swept out now, the stables cleaned of the mound of s**t they represent, even if it means we get a new PM and a bounce and a hung Parliament.
Paul Farelly MP in the Independent, named as a ‘ringleader” points at the heart of darkness that is Number 10. Damian McBride was a creation of Brown’s politics not an instigator. As Farelly says
“What concerns me, too, is Gordon’s machine style of politics. My opinions would usually be conveyed in private, but on Wednesday evening the Chief Whip, one of the PM’s henchmen, gave my name to the media as a coup “ringleader”.
It was totally untrue. … It was disgraceful. I was furious and it distracted from Thursday’s elections. But it was reminiscent of the crisis last summer when good people were hounded, and names trotted out to journalists to flush people out into reacting.
It left a sour taste last year, and it sullies a Labour Government now. The point is you cannot convincingly claim a moral compass, or “Presbyterian conscience”, yet sanction this sort of behaviour. It’s like pretending the Damian McBride email scandal, which revolted us all, never happened. ”
As well as the misogynist, football loving bullies he surrounds himself with, the undermining of colleagues and destruction of party and national politics we have his hypocrisy across policy.
Brown talks of Renewing Democracy but brings the unelected Glenys Kinnock into Government, he gives Lord Mandelson a super-Department and title of First Secretary of State (usually the Deputy leader) and most comically of all brings the host of his favourite reality TV show, a millionaire property speculator, into Government.
Today he goes to Normandy “to represent” the British people, having taken no action to really help and support the veterans in getting there, with MoD having a budget commemoration, he himself more concerned about being pictured with Obama. He will make some speech, full of honeyed words, not meaning or caring about a single thing what he says.
I used to think that the private Brown must be a better man than the political Brown, I no longer believe that. I think he is hypocritical, a bully and morally corrupt. Whereas I used to separate political dislike from personal I find I now detest the man.
PB gets a mention in the MSM:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/vickiwoods/5455071/My-husbands-medical-secrets-are-safer-with-me-than-on-a-skip.html
Also Mike, are you aware that people going to http://www.politicalbetting.com are only seeing articles fom April? I’ve only accessed this thread by using 87.106.214.196 instead…
Counting is underway in Ireland’s local elections. The first results won’t be known until after lunch but RTE is releasing an exit poll at 11. I’ll post it when it comes up. There’s also 2 Dail by-elections in Dublin, early indications are that Fine Gael are going to take a seat off FF in Dublin South by a mile. FG’s candidate is George Lee who until recently was RTE’s economics editor but who resigned to fight this election in protest at FF’s handling of the economy.
Here’s a link to RTE’s Elections coverage http://www.rte.ie/news/elections/
David Herdson and Sean Fear - the Lib Dems did very well in some of their fights with Labour (look at Bristol, Burnley, etc.). That will presumably have been extrapolated to assume that they would have done similarly well in the metropolitan areas where they are Labour’s main opponents. Whether that extrapolation is accurate is difficult to judge until the European results from the metros come in on Sunday night.
LOL: Neil Kinnock: “I don’t think John Prescott’s criticisms on his blog of the Labour election campaign should be seen as any negative reflection on John”!!!
Re Sir Alan Sugar, anyone want to guess how many job he has? Well Companies House publically lists him with 31 directorships:
AMSPROP INVESTMENTS LIMITED
AMSPROP LIMITED
AMSPROP ESTATES LIMITED
AMSAIR LIMITED
AMSHOLD LIMITED
AMSGAL PROPERTIES LIMITED
AMSTED PROPERTIES LIMITED
AMSPROP LONDON LIMITED
AMSHOLD SECURITIES LIMITED
AMSHOLD GROUP LIMITED
VIGECOM LIMITED
AMSPROP CITY PROPERTIES LIMITED
AMSPROP PROPERTIES LIMITED
AMSPROP CENTRAL LIMITED
AMSPROP REGENT LIMITED
AMSPROP MAYFAIR LIMITED
VIGLEN LIMITED
AMSHOLD INVESTMENTS LIMITED
AMSHOLD TRUSTEES LIMITED
AMSTRAD CONSUMER ELECTRONICS COMPANY
VIGLEN TECHNOLOGY LIMITED
AMSAIR EXECUTIVE AVIATION LIMITED
AMSAIR AIRCRAFT LIMITED
AMSPROP (NO. 6) LIMITED
AMSPROP BISHOPSGATE LIMITED
AMSPROP EUSTON LIMITED
AMSPROP OXFORD LIMITED
AMSPROP PORTLAND LIMITED
AMSPROP SOUTHBANK LIMITED
AMSTAR MEDIA LIMITED
AMSCREEN PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY
180. Jack Peterson. Except that none of us will really think much of the Euroelections as a predictor of anything. They’re even more odd than the locals. Whether UKIP get 20 or 10 seats, or BNP gets 1 or none, Labour come 2nd or 5th - it’s all water under the bridge as far as voting intentions in a GE are concerned. Labour’s results will probably have some impact on Brown, but otherwise, we can assume that - Tories doing well, Labour doing badly, Lib Dems not doing as well as they might have hoped, but not too badly.
Sky interviewer: “When would you advise Brown to consider stepping down?”
Kinnock: “In about 6 or 7 years, after his second general election victory, in deference to the fact he’ll be in his late sixties”.
Kinnock thinks Gordon will win the next election. Twit.
Shadsy at 176. Why not introduces a tricast or even a 4cast ?
I am amazed nobody introduced one for the EU election.
WRT By-Elections Labour may well opt to hold this and Glasgow North East simultaneously and direct their main effort at Glasgow where clearly they have a better chance. If they could just scrape home in Glasgow North East despite it being bedrock loyal for generations to Labour, then even if they are blown out of the water in Norwich North expect the score draw line from Birmingham Hodge Hill to be wheeled out.
6 or 7 years after his second GE victory? In other words after his THIRD GE victory. Basically like Blair.
IP test
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188. Ha ha ha! It just gets better. I imagine we’re going to have Kinnock popping up a lot more often now that wifey’s in the government. Can’t be a bad thing for the opposition parties!
We’re Aaaaaaaalright!
re `173. No - Ed Balls is doing that
185 He’ll be more worried about his own patch after Sunday I think. FWIW I do not think Labour will top the Poll in Wales. They still could but it would now be more surprising if they did than if they did not. The sense of panic in the Labour Party in Wales is amply shown by the fact that they are now begging Rhodri Morgan their most popular figure (probably their only popular figure)to stay on until after the General Election despite the fact he is already 70 and has said he is retiring in the autumn.
The correct seat share changes for the councils with comparable results from 2005 are as follows :-
Conservative plus 251
Labour minus 286
LibDems minus 1
Others net plus 37
There is 1 extra seat in West Sussex hence the overall plus 1
I have NOT included the Isle Of Wight where there was a net loss of 8 seats and the net changes were Con -7 Lab -1 LDem + 1 Others -1 . I have assumed there is no seat changes in the 2 wards were the election has been postponed or the Ipswich seat which is recounting on Sunday .
I have NOT included any of the new Unitaries .
Labour are resorting to living in fantasy world now.
Peter Hain: - “We have more women in senior positions in the cabinet now… than ever before in Britain’s history.”
Outright lie.
188 - No in six or seven years COMMA after his second victory.
The funny thing was that I assumed that Kinnock was saying it as a joke to deflect the question, but he then went on to give a 5 minute explanation of the reasons for his answer, the difficulties of a top job as you enter old age, the fact that his children will be entering an important age, the fact that a new generation in the Labour Party will be ready to overtake him…
The other amusing thing was saying how great it was that Glenys had got the job, just wishes she was 35 rather than 65!!! lol
185, maybe Kinnock will help him organise a victory rally just before the GE?
Best Excuse for Expenses - Sir Gerald Kaufman
“Veteran Labour MP Sir Gerald Kaufman yesterday blamed a self-diagnosed “obsessive compulsive disorder” for making bizarre and extravagant claims on the public purse including £8,865 for a 40in LCD Bang & Olufsen television.”
“Sir Gerald also said his condition led him to purchase a pair of Waterford Crystal grapefruit bowls for £220 on his parliamentary expenses….Sir Gerald said he needed two grapefruit bowls because one was for him and another “for any guests”…..Sir Gerald also charged the taxpayer £225 for a rollerball pen and admitted when asked to explain his claims that they were “bizarre-sounding”.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/kaufman-blames-obsessive-disorder-1698144.html
Maybe Gordon can also blame OCD for his extravagance with taxpayers money, leading to debts of approaching a trillion pounds as a result.
*** BETTING POST ***The SPIN market on Gordo’s time in office is up, and the price is 875-905. The result so far is 710, and the maximum is 1072.
It’s pretty much an each way bet; if you think Gordo will be out this week, sell. If you think he can stay till May then buy…
BTW, Mr Smithson rank outsider (33-1) for the 14:20 at Musselburgh.
196 - Sheffield would be a nice city to hold it in I think.
Was watching HIGNFY, hadn’t seen it for a while, and was shocked by the open contempt and ridicule for Brown. He really is a national joke now.
193 Mark “I have not included any of the new unitaries”
Presumably because Lib Dems did badly in those. For example Sky figures for Cornwall LDs -29, Cons +24, Wiltshire LDs -10, Cons +5.
Bet you would have done had those figures been reversed.
184. Kinnock can’t even do maths honestly let alone anything else. In 6 or 7 years time Brown will be 64 or 65, not in his “late sixties”.
177. Excellent rant Ted.
“The total number of days Gordon Brown is in office in his current term as Prime Minister.
The actual day he leaves office shall be used for settlement. Any subsequent re-election will not count so the maximum result will be 3rd June 2010, which is the last possible date for a General Election.
Should this change then the maximum result will remain 3rd June 2010.”
For example; Gordon Brown is ousted and leaves office on Tuesday 16th June 2009
Result = 720
Minimum result = today
Maximum possible result = 1072 (3rd June 2010)
Gordon Brown became Prime Minister on 27th June 2007.
Market So Far Price
“Brown And Out” 710 SELL 875 - 905 BUY
Any views on this complicated Spread from Sporting Index ?
202 - i paraphrased.
I am genuinely stunned that Labour got as much as 23% of the vote.
I am sure that this has been discussed, but after Thursday what is the prognosis for the BNP getting a seat in the Euro elections?
202, he must’ve been well-indoctrinated in EU-maths when head of enjoying freebies for the EU.
Thanks for responses on the UKIP question - I’m inclined to leave it myself; 15 seats is a very tough ask given the total seats has shrunk and their total projected vote isn’t very different (though I realise the pecking order in each constituency can be important).
As for the by-election; purely on the numbers for last time the Tories look a 1/12 shot, and I don’t think local factors will make sway that too much. Narrowly odds-on would be a “full bank job”, as the degenerates on betfair say.
DNS Problems
There’s now a post up at PB2 on what to do if you cannot get through to the site.
It suggests that you use this URL - which might be worth bookmarking for future reference.
http://87.106.214.196/
Last time we had this problem it was because of difficulties with Register.com who manage the PB domain name.
re DNS issues, there is clearly a problem with the Register.com DNS servers. I’ve reset my IP address and initiated a reload. Hopefully that will solve the problem.
Thanks, Robert
203. See 198…
It is the contempt, distain, dismissiveness and open laughing at Brown that will do him in. There have been Prime Ministers in the past who have been loathed and hated to the extreme, but the electorate have largely considered them the right person for the job - Blair, Thatcher.
But no-one thinks Brown is the right person for the job. He is viewed with distain across the political spectrum. When we’re not so peeved at his ridiculous desire to cling on, we’re laughing at his silly smile and his awkward mannerisms and his clear ineptitude.
It is that more than anything that does a leader in. Labour, wake up and smell the coffee - Brown is going to drag you down into the depths of Canadia 1993 if this carries on for another year. And I firmly believe that.
205 they didn’t - thats a projection nationally based on a range of ‘representative’ wards
205, vote matters less than seats won. Or lost.
Labour started from a low base and lost about 300 seats. Bradshaw can claim a 15pt Tory lead isn’t enough all he likes. They’re set for a thrashing if they don’t ditch Brown. It’s passed the stage where uniting behind the PM is the best or, indeed, safest course of action.
211. Canada, not ‘Canadia’! Have no idea where that is!
208 How hard do you think the Lib Dems will fight Norwich North. On the one hand they will clearly remember Crewe and Nantwich and will not want to ramp up expectations. OTOH they have a prime target next door and must be wary of spillover effect if the Tories were to score a really big win in Norwich North.
After a nudge, William Hill have now settled the “Labour lose remaining county councils” bet.
For those betting on Gordo’s leaving date, essential reading…
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2009/06/if-the-precedents-hold-true-brown-will-be-out-of-office-within-days.html
214, Canadia is Brown’s key ally in the war against Alky Ada, the alcoholic Glaswegian gangster.
210 Scott P. Thanks for that.
It is a very bold index in that an insider could pwn them on the Sell side.
What it says to me is that established thought is now firmly with Gordon Brown staying and staying.You would have to be some kind of lunatic to Buy at 905….or would you ?
Further evidence for Brown staying is provided by the eccentric William Hill who Lays 6-4 ‘NO’ to the question of GB leading Labour at the next GE.
I have retreated with honour from my opposite view and now just have a small loss if Brown fulfils his mission.
211. The ‘reshsuffle’ is one big FU to the electorate. Brown has made it clear if he has no mandate from the people, he will simply bypass any democratic process. The endless peddling of Brown’s enormous and incomparable ’stature’ is really putting the case for tyranny. And of course he isn’t a strong man at all - he’s a very very weak man, propped up by Mandelson who has become PM in all but name. Packing the government with cronies in the Lords is everything the Labour party is supposed to oppose. When a government gets this out of touch with the will of the people revolt will surely follow.
205 SO: “I am genuinely stunned that Labour got as much as 23% of the vote.”
I agree and as a result, I expect them to achieve 16%-17% in the Euros, in which case they will be close to or even marginally ahead of UKIP. This is not what Betfair is saying, where Labour’s odds are approx 2.5/1 and those of UKIP approx 0.4/1.
Hmm …… definitely one to watch as the count gets nearer.
F1 qualifying is at 12 rather than 1 today, for those interested. Prog starts at 11.10.
201 No I would not have included Cornwall or Wilts under any circumstances . What is the basis for comparing them , the number of seats and boundaries are totally incomparable .
217 ScottP. Qvortrup (crazy name,crazy guy) is indulging in voodoo statistics and the fact that I tend to agree with him puts me in the nuthouse.
WRT Northern Ireland, the SDLP have more or less conceded that they can’t win a seat. De Bruin will top the poll easily, follwed by Dodds and Nicholson, who’ll be quite close. Allister has done real damage to the DUP vote share, and Alliance look to have polled very well.
221. But did they really get 23% of the vote? Isn’t the BBCs methodology for all these vote share figures somewhat questionable?
14 - I did miss it but followed the comments on here.
For once the comments didn’t do justice to just how bad it was.
He has to go, now.
220. “When a government gets this out of touch with the will of the people revolt will surely follow.”
Comrade MandelTrotsky and the BBC versus the world. Who’ll win I wonders.
Re Labour’s share - vote for councils were in poor areas for Labour so the extrapolation is for a better % nationally. However, the other areas did not have council elections to double dip and would have to express disastisfction re expenses and recession at the only vote they had - the Euro election, and I would expect those where there were also council elections to have been harsher to Labour in the Euro than the councils - hence SUnday could be very grim indeed for Labour.
12%-13%
226 - Wouldn’t it be easier if they just showed the actual percentages rather than trying to work out a projected national share?
217,224 re Brown out analysis by Professor Matt Qvortrup at ConHome.
Looks like a severe case of backfitting. The professor seems to have used the same events to validate his model as he used to derive it in the first place.
224. URW. I am in the “Gordo must go” camp, so I have taken a modest sell.
It seems to me that there is no truly reliable source of overall data on the local elections. Different aggregators appear to employ differing standards for assessing seats gained and lost. Share of the vote seems to be not what it says on the tin, but “projected national share” instead - with a load of bogus assumption to derive it. Can anyone point to a source that has aggregated the raw data, and also has similar aggregate figures for 2005?
226 Oscar, you tell me. Surely they are not the BBC are only organisation to calclulate vote shares. I mean, hell, you’re not expecting me to slog through the results of hundreds of seats to work it out for myself are you!
UKIP were virtually invisible in the council voting, as one would expect frankly, but it’s a huge act of faith, and contrary to a number of recent polls to believe that, as if by magic, they are suddenly about to achieve around one sixth of the vote. I’m not saying they won’t but it’s a big ask for them to finish above Labour and imho hard to justify their very short odds-on price of 2/5.
I mean not a single vote has been counted yet, has it………?
232 Scott - Re: Brown’s early departure - we generally agree on betting issues, but not on this one. Convince me, paint me a picture, explain how you see it panning out.
225 So no UUP MEP then.
230 Projected National Share does provide a standard measure but is a calculation. BBC shouldn’t treat it as fact, only as a guide. Labour didn’t get 23%, Labour’s calculated share projected nationally was 23%, a fall on last years projection.
Labour did though lose two out of every three seats they were defending - that is a really amazingly bad result.
Still wittering on about the problem of accessing both pb sites, I notice that the 25 April page that keeps recurring has a note from Morus warning that site modifications were to be made at that time which might create access difficulties. Did some gremlin creep in during those modifications which has caused the present difficulty?
Many thanks to other posters who have successfully talked a technological moron (me)through the process of by-passing the problem. But I had still rather the problem were solved altogether. It’s taking up time I’d rather spend fulminating against Gordon Brown, most of the PLP and those idiot members of the commentariat who are absolutely determined to prove, at least to their own satisfaction, that the local election results are really, really bad for the Tories. The morning after the forthcoming Tory landslide they will no doubt be saying that it’s a flash in the pan and won’t last.
Just watched Newsnight and blimey Wark was in serious sista mode.
I was wondering what she was going to look like after the comments about the psychedelic shirt and shiny skirt - I actually flinched when she came on - she must have got dressed in the dark.
Hain seemed a really odd choice of spokesbot - unable to answer her questions and rather than deflecting them he just wibbled or gaped.
The lobby must be open-mouthed that Gordon claimed that there was no briefing against Darling in the same breath as saying he was The Great Truth.
I really feel that his decision to campaign on the basis of his personal candour and honesty is going to kill him faster than back to basics ever did for Major. It’s a complete hostage to fortune everytime he opens his mouth.
I considered watching that press conference again but I can’t face it.
208 - Mike, it isnt a DNS issue. It happens whenever I clear my cookies and cache but on pinging politicalbetting.com it resolves to the IP address you provide in your post.
The issue is fixed by a comment which means it must be an issue with a cookie or some such tracker.
Hope this helps.
239, couldn’t watch Newsnight. Turned onto Sky and saw Michael White living up to my tag of a ‘clown of epic proportions’. Turned off TV. Chuckled for quite some time.
226/230 Surely 23% of votes cast in the English shire counties isn’t a bad score for Labour. It’s their performance in the metropolitan red belts and the Celtic fringe that will determine the national outcome. We’ll know more about this tomorrow.
242, speaking of tomorrow, when do we get to know the results? The delay is pathetic.
223 Mark - someone (R&T ?) must have worked out for Sky (as was done IIRC for Cheshire last year) based on ward voting what the likely “before figure” was.
For Conservatives certainly performance in Cornwall, Devon, Somerset and Wilts is very good news in driving back the Peril.
Site issue is definitely related to the Cookie it provides.
244
the “peril ” is on the march in the cities
244, was amused to see the new head of one of those councils bitchslap Chris Huhne who claimed losing Somerset and Devon was just a small anecdotal example.
The big questions about tomorrow are where UKIP, the Greens and the BNP come.
It doesn’t add up@233: OT and this won’t help you, but if there’s one thing a public service news organization funded by a license fee or general taxation should be doing, it’s providing raw data like this. If the Tories want to get their own back on the BBC for the bias a lot of commentators here think they see, they should cut back all the commentary, shut down the TV and radio channels and make the BBC’s only job to gather information and provide it as XML feeds.
237 Thanks Ted, that clarifies things somewhat. Your final comment stating that Labour lost 2 out of every 3 seats they were defending is just a staggering statistic.
236 Nicholson is UUP/Conservative. Contrary to what most commentators were saying, the merger of the two parties looks as if it has at least shored up the UUP vote.
Again contrarty to what the commentators were predicting, turnout has fallen far more sharply in Nationalist seats than in Unionist ones, compared to 2004.
Overall, Allister probably helped the Unionists, by bringing out some Unionist voters who would otherwise have abstained.
Morning All,
Re Nick Starling and Norwich North. As well as being on the approved candidates list he’ll need to get through a By Election Star Chamber at Cowley Street. I would have thought there were enough things on his blog to sinkn a carrier group. Its not necesserily a good thing for politics but the media would chew up and spit out his level of freely expressed thought.
It will be interesting because it will be Rennards last election. I presume they will have learned the lessons of the C and N ramping however can’t avaoid throughing the kitchen sink at it because being squeezed to nothing would be bad for morale.
243. As I commented yesterday, it’s a bit like Easter with two crucifixions.
242. Labour didn’t get 23% of the votes cast yesterday (a score they’d have been delighted with). That was the projected national equivalent share had all parts of the country outside NI - ie including Wales, Scotland, London, the mets and unitaries - been voting as well.
243 We should be getting an idea, from the counts, from about 4 pm onwards.
247 -
Edmund - Toryism effectively has already destroyed the BBC as was.
243 MD - the delay is purely in deference to other Euro states who don’t vote until tomorrow. Only in the US are some results announced whilst others are still voting …..weird.
248 PfP.
One useful stat to remember from the council results is a comparison of what happened to the seats each party took in. For every eleven council seats the big three were defending:
- The Conservatives gained an extra two.
- The Lib Dems lost one.
- Labour lost SEVEN.
250 see 215. It’s tricky though for them as they have Norwich South next door. A huge Tory win say in Norwich North could upset that applecart as well at the General Election.
252 - Just for fun do we know what share Labour did get? Did they break 10%?
249 Will Cameron be stumping in Upper Bann etc at the General and will this help the UUP.
With regards to the share of the vote. The numbers the BBC have seem bizarre to me. Looking on wiki for what data is there it seems that the conservatives have increased their vote from 2005. I added up the data that was there (For Bucks, Cambridge,Devon,Norfolk,Warwickshire,Worcestershire) and I came up with the following vote count for the 3 main parties. Con 563k, Lab137k, Lib 325k. Supposing 11% of the populace voted for others, then that equates to Con 49% Lab 12% Lib 28%. Clearly with such limited data these aren’t ‘right’, but it does seem an awful stretch to get to the bbc figures. Does anyone have any better data?
248 If the seat loss on a 2009 v 2005 basis was repeated at the General Election Labour would win 115-120 seats. Very unlikely but if 2005 Labour voters stay at home, others vote as they did on Thursday I think losing one out of every two seats could be possible.
259 - For about the 15th time - THE BBC FIGURES ARE A NATIONAL PROJECTION!!
please work…please work…please work
258 I think Cameron did go over there a few times, so it’s quite likely he’ll pay some visits in the general election. I expect Upper Bann will stick with the DUP, but South Antrim and North Down are winnable (and maybe even South Belfast).
246 - I think the BNP will win a seat unfortunately.
test
O/T
Are we going to receive any advice from PtP or STJVOHN on the outcome of today’s big race?
I’m very content with my place bet on Sea The Stars at an amazing price of 1.58/1, after its 2000 Guineas triumph, for a horse of such staggering ability. If it gets the trip, it’ll win.
242 History Boy. That’s just the point they didn’t get 23% in the Shire Counties. The 23% is a national projection based on the vote in a selection of ‘representative’ wards around the shire counties. These must be wards that have previously more closely reflected national patterns than purely the Shire counties would.
Personally I would dearly love to see the raw data. Looking at individual counties you can see that there has been a 9% swing in Lancashire and the conservatives are 25% ahead in Staffordshire both of which have key marginals IIRC. I suspect that the model the BBC is using to get to the 38%v23% figure is going to get seriously found out.
It’s based on out of date assumptions
261 I know what they are, but that doesn’t make them right. If the conservatives share of the vote is increased where votes have been cast it’s hard to see how the projected share should decline isn’t it?
263 I’d have thought Belfast South a prime target. No DUP incumbent and a real fluke result last time where the Unionist vote cleaved perfectly in almost the only way that could possibly let the SDLP in. Plus it’s by NI standards a quite middle class seat. It’ll be very very interesting.
177. Ted. Very persuasive. With Brown I find myself swinging from thinking him ‘a man more sinned against than sinning’ to a self serving psychopath clinging to office with a tenacity that would embarrass a leech.
A much more pleasant experience on PB this morning with 100 posts per page, compared with yesterday’s 25 ppp, when it all became rather mad.
I’m still slightly dazed from all the excitement yesterday. It was a great day to be at home with laptop and 24 hour news.
Regarding Chloe Smith, it’s good to see the York Mafia inching closer to political dominance!
261 Correctly you should have said the” BBC figures are an early national projection that may still change” - IIRC the national projection of record changed last year but only after a time.
I have reservations over the prominence given to a projection by the BBC, the news is about how council control and council seats are changing hands, how in local Government terms politics is changing. The National Projected Vote is not news, it is analysis and actually should be calculated after most results are in as a post match analysis. The BBC in its reporting throughout yesterday presented IMHO an unbalanced view by hanging it so much around a calculation of doubtful precision (was Conservative figure 39% or between 36 and 42%?)
Some people really are thick on here, the Tories didn’t just get 38% of the vote yesterday (they got a huge %, but then a lot of there councils were true blue), nor did Labour get anywhere near 23%. All these figures come from the BBC mystical calculated model to try to give a prediction of what the vote share in a GE result would have been, if it had been held yesterday.
There is a problems though with all these models, they are looking at certain key wards and ignoring / weighting less others, making assumptions about certain seats etc etc etc. Also the likes of Dumbo-bly kept wittering on about Tories needing 40%, they don’t need 40% if Labour and Lib Dem’s are only getting 22-23% of the vote.
Trasher on Sky, whose model said Tory majority of around 30, but, and this is the big but, he was man enough to say actually I don’t think the model is right, given how we are seeing patterns of voting change. He said he would expect it to be a bigger majority.
re 271. I’ve put it up to 150 comments per page
correction(s) There is -> There are
Dumbo-bley -> Dumbo-be
268. The guy from Ipsos Mori on C4 News yesterday said that in his estimation Conservatives would have a landslide victory with over 100 majority if patterns of voting were repeated at a GE.
257. I’ve no idea what the aggregate total is, but here are the vote shares for some major authorities (2005 shares in brackets):
Lancashire
Con 42% (37%)
Lab 24% (38%)
LD 15% (19%) - note quite a few seats left uncontested
UKIP 7% (0.29%)
Green 4% (2%)
BNP 4% (2%)
Leicestershire
Con 44% (42%)
LD 27% (28%)
Lab 16% (26%)
BNP 12% (1%)
Oxfordshire
Con 43% (34%)
LD 24% (28%)
Lab 15% (23%)
Green 14% (11%)
Hampshire
Con 48% (44%)
LD 33% (34%)
Lab 7% (14%)
UKIP 6% (0.75%)
Green 2% (1%)
275 Thanks Mike, you’re obviously not anticipating any resignations today!
Another key indicator of how well parties did yesterday, again from Thrasher’s comments. He said more than 250 seats gained was successful (and I think BBC said “good”) for the Tories (they actually got 285 by Sky’s count), and Labour loses of more than 200 was a terrible (they lost 329).
(correction) loses -> losses
BTW, where has the edit function gone? I’m missing it
235. Peter. On Brown’s departure, first of all the why.
The narrative from the bunker, as explained by
Nick CleggNeil Kinnock this morning is that people will vote for Brown if the economy recovers. There are 2 parts to that bet.If the economy recovers? Let’s be generous and call it evens.
People will vote for Brown? No, they won’t. The results from yesterday illustrate that to anyone who cares to see. The results tomorrow will probably be worse.
The most likely outcome of Brown leading Labour into a general election is a Canada style wipeout. There is no set of circumstances I can foresee where Labour under Gordo is anything other than crushed. Another year at the trough doesn’t compensate for that.
As to the how, there are a couple of chances in the next week. The PLP could raise the 72 signatures, and the SNP vote on Wednesday gives them a 2nd bite at the cherry, although of course that’s an immediate election (under a new leader), rather than a new leader (and a prompt election)…
I have been impressed by Brown’s tenacity thus far, but he is entirely living on patronage. Gorbals Mick was not for resigning, right up until the point he did.
If it becomes apparent to those who wield power that the saviour Gordon narrative just won’t fly then they could act.
The Government is still in office, but even less in power than before the reshuffle. The media are not ready to let him off. Blatantly lying in a press conference after claiming to be candid was not smart. The public clamour for an election will not be dimmed by the events of this week. There is no other political story to divert attention. Is there any chance Gordo’s 3 new initiatives will stand up to any more scrutiny than his others? At his current rate of progress they will fall apart BEFORE they are published.
So, I may not convince you, but if I am wrong and Gordo clings on till next year, my loss on this bet will be of no consequence compared to the damage wrought to the country.
279 Peter from Putney
I think the Telegraph made a grave mistake yesterday.
They did another piece on Gordon Brown’s troughing - including double-claiming for bills on flipped properties.
The same allegations were devastating for Darling earlier in the week.
But Gordon Brown’s misdemeanours were brushed under the carpet with news of resignations, reshuffles and local elections.
If they ran that story instead of yesterday, they could have kept the pressure up on Brown.
William Hill - Glasgow North East by-election
Labour 5/6
SNP 5/6
Liberal Democrats 33/1
Conservatives 50/1
* * * BETTING POST * * *William Hill - Will Gordon Brown cease to be Prime Minister by Midnight June 13th 2009?
No 1/3
Yes 9/4
I notice that the snot gobbler is going to the American cemetery with Saint Obama, rather than the British stuff this afternoon!
From what I have seen, Sky have let some of the war veterans say their piece about the Queen should be there, was there on the 55 and 60 anniversary,etc, etc.
BBC, mumble mumble, not a shun, no no big misunderstanding, political antenna slightly off, but fixed it now, mumble mumble, ask a child if they like the machines and the band..
278 - looking at those figures, Labour have lost about 1/3 of their county council vote from 2005. Assuming UNS, a national general election vote share of 23% is therefore quite credible.
Oh dear God…
A football match between North Korea and Iran… which the FT thinks could influence the Iranian Presidential election!
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b873413a-51ea-11de-b986-00144feabdc0,dwp_uuid=be75219e-940a-11da-82ea-0000779e2340.html
271. Yes, I swear by the edit feature, but if it’s that versus longer threads, give me the longer threads every time.
* * * BETTING POST * * *William Hill - Gordon Brown To Lead Labour At Next Election
Yes 1/2
No 6/4
IJ @ 240, 245 re problems.
Looks more like DNS to me. Suspect cookie/comments are involved only insofar as they use politicalbetting.com without any http://www.
My ISP’s DNS server is now resolving OK but earlier had no record for the www address and a bad one for the non-www address.
I think the key to the outcome of the Labour v UKIP contest in the EE is how many Tory voters have lent their votes to UKIP. What information is their available from the various pollsters on this?
I thought a lot of the Liberal Democrat seats in Devon were held with very slender majorities. So a relatively small switch to the Conservatives, combined with an important UKIP presence, led to a substantial loss of seats.
Votes would seem to be more important than seats when looking towards the future. The seats could easily move back again.
Or am I wrong?
Can we trust anything these days, “editing” mistakes again, just like the Queen program,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/8085442.stm
Amazing 48 hours in politics. I watched Gordon’s press conference in full yesterday and as I often do turned the sound off to just watch the non verbals for a while. The man is a wreck. he may still be there but he is like the batter stump that refuses to die in the final scene of a terminator movie. He doesn’t look well has too many body ticks for a GE campaign, appalling levels of muscular-skelatal tension, exagerated hand gestures, poor eye contact, speaking too quickly and far to little use of humour in diffusing tension.
He just has to go. I understand why some in the labour tribe are defending him but I really worry weather he is mentally capable of carrying on. The references to his father were disturbing. A mentally declining, ancestor worshiping control freak cornered and running out of ammo isn’t going to end well.
277 The guy from Ipsos Mori… said that in his estimation Conservatives would have a landslide victory with over 100 majority
Some distance then from the BBC’s estimate of a 20 overall Tory majority. This reporting was just so evidently crass - they really do need to massively improve the quality of their coverage. This error was perpetuated throughout the day and even repeated on the news programmes. Doesn’t anyone there check such palpable errors.
PfP Presumably the BBC are forced to report on the simple raw numbers, since they qualify as facts, wheras the MORI man can factor in judgement calls like how many voters who voted ED/UKIP etc or who vote Lib Dem locally will swing behing the Tories at the General election?
283 - Wibbler it was a complete non-story that amounted to about £86.
I can access the main site from my Mac but on my Nokia E71 I get the (admittedly super) article from Morus in April. Trying the 87.106.214.196 route doesnt work on the E71 - just get a white screen
296 - But they aren’t reporting on “raw” numbers, they are feeding the raw numbers into a computer model and pumping out a theoretical result. Just as Sky do, and I’m sure just as MORI do. The question is who has the model right, and who is willing to say actually I can see my model is not quite right.
The BBC keeping blabbering on about Tories must get more than 40% (whatever the other parties get) and for most of yesterday that the Tories wouldn’t get a majority. Thrasher on Sky said 30 majority, but said actually some of the things I have seen today indicates a much bigger majority, and so do IPSOS MORI rep.
“Convinced of his own genius and destiny Gordon Brown refuses to give an inch”
By Tom Bower
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1191195/Convinced-genius-destiny-Gordon-Brown-refuses-inch.html
307 I disagree, I don’t think MORI are “using a model”, I think they’re forming a judgement based on their political knowledge and experience. It’s not about who is right - they’re both right. One is right about what would happen if people voted *the same way* in the general election as the implied national vote in the local elections, and the other is right about what will happen if people vote nationally in similar proportions *relative to locally* as they have done at other general elections.
305 alex
Well, here is the story. The Telegraph reckons it is £512, but the amount is largely irrelevant.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5456789/mps-expenses-Gordon-Brown-billed-taxpayer-for-two-second-homes.html
You may think it is a non-story; I disagree. It is essentially the same story for which Darling was crucified earlier in the week - claiming ACA on two second homes simultaneously.
221 - Inclined to agree that Labour > UKIP is the value bet at current prices simply because the UKIP share of the vote is entirely unpredictable somewhere in the range 10%-20%, and the shape of the regions works against them.
For myself, just took some extra on a tie as someone briefly offered 10.5 at Betfair which struck me as generous.
282 - Scott - thanks for that. Your points are valid, but I remain of the view that if he gets through the next 3 days, which he will, then he’s safe until the Autumn at least.
Except…….. that he looks seriously unwell (and I’m not just referring to Mike’s carefully selected pics). It’s all in the eyes, he’s been under enormous stress recently and needs to be checked out.
“Broken and compromised, Brown is the prisoner of his Cabinet and his sleazy Chancellor”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1191214/PETER-OBORNE-Broken-compromised-Brown-prisoner-Cabinet-sleazy-Chancellor.html
RTE exit poll for Irish locals
FG 34%
FF 24%
Lab 17.5%
SF 9%
Grn 3%
Ind/Oth 13%
FG is also set to take a seat off FF in the Dublin South by-election. Initial indications from the Euro poll will be out at 1 pm, first indications are that Libertas leader Declan Ganley has polled very well in the North West constituency.
309 - I don’t disagree, there isn’t a “right” answer. However, what the BBC do is use it to spin the narrative they want, they continually tried to beat up Spellman yesterday saying but but you haven’t got 40%, you got 44% last year etc etc etc, and Labour vote holding up at last years level. Thus, Tories badly effected by expenses scandal, Labour same as last year, and remember 2004 local election low vote then won the GE, etc etc etc.
When you look at the map and see the Tories winning everything and Vine saying ohh not a good day for the Tories, you think what a f##kin moron! (and I’m not a Tory).
Count the number of “ifs” in this statement to see how desperate Labour MPs are…
Edinburgh South Labour MP Nigel Griffiths said the departure of key critics such as Hazel Blears and Mr Purnell – and potential successor Alan Johnson’s comment that Mr Brown was still the best Prime Minister – had left him in a stronger position despite the local election results.
He said: “We are all working on the premise that the economy will start picking up, issues will move on and if we get a good January, February and March and something bad happens to the Tories, policywise or otherwise, we are in with a shout of forming the next government, even as a minority.”
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Backing-for-Brown-as-city.5341578.jp
FleetofWorlds - I also get the wrong site on my E71. Try www2.politicalbetting.com and see if that works…
*weeps with relief*
Dunno what happened there or indeed why I can now post again.
315 - Even if Tories only got 38% in the GE, but Labour got 22-24%, Tories would win, but not in Dumbo-bee’s mind, not he has it so ingrained that Tories must get 40%.
Just wait until Sunday night and Tories only get 30% max, the BBC will be on the attack again.
Re:Lib Dem performance.
As I tend to be quite glass half empty about the party’s prospects I was quite satisfied with the locals although i suspect the Euro’s will be grim. 28% notional national share is a point down on this stage in the last cycle (29%). If you add in the typic campaign bump from extra air time to our national opinion polling its been looking like about 22% for a few months now which is also about a point down on last time.
While there is absolutely zero sense of forward momentum I’m increasingly confident we can come close to matching the 2005 vote share and hold high fifties/perhaps 60 seats albeit with considerable churn - Con losses/Lab gains.
The real question which we will know soon enough is how well the green party will do tommorrow. If they can get into the low to mid teens ( which i think likely) then an MEP in most regions will provide a quantumish leap in their resources and help set them up as along term strategic competitor.
I think given the mess the party has made of this parliament prior to Novemeber 2008 the local results are satisfactory and show no substantial errosion from the two and half party system Briatin has.
Tommorrow and the Euros may tell a different story.
108 - I used to have a house in Normandy and you should have heard me mangle “Cherbourg” - Some French friends after looking at me blankly put me right
310 - Well i didn’t think much of the Darling story either, no matter how much trouble he got in.
IMO if one has costs involved with a second home then it is reasonable to have a transitional relief period when moving into a new residence (no11) at short notice. Some people get really worked up about these things, but for a few hundred quid i really can’t.
322 - If all that was what Darling did, I don’t think people would either. However, it is a bit like saying Capone, he did a bit of tax dodging, can’t get worked up about that!
323 (corrections) 322 - If that is all that Darling was guilty of,…..
For reference, if the C&N swing and turnout changes were replicated in NN the Tories would win by 10,800 over Labour…
315 Oracle you may not be a Tory, but you’re hardly a pargon of openmindedness. Never heard you attack them, but you’ll never pass over an opportunity to attack the govt, libs or the media. Hmmmm.
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This site is getting increasingly erratic. 4 times I tried to hit PB this morning, 3 times I got onto the site, only for it to vanish again.
David Herdsons 2nd string only works in fits and starts.
What is going on? If PB needs a much stronger server, and assume it does, then I’m sure us regular PBers will be willing to make a donation to set this up; say £20 from each subsciber on a one off basis.
500 such donations will bring in £10,000, more than enough. Any left overs can be used to enhance the site, both technical and graphical.
I do hope the Edit app works now.
Of course the happiest man in Britain today with the BBC “tories not doing well” narrative and Gordo still in No10 is David Cameron. Underplaying expectations is exactly what he needs, and Gordo is the least formidable election opponent. That fact alone will cause some Labour MPs to grumble, especially if tories start openly laughing at them in the tearooms
315 I agree that it was a good day for the Tories, but equally “winning everything” doesn’t tell you all that much - most of what was voting should be deep blue already, and a lot of the gains were due as much to this being the first time since 1993 that the counties were off the general election cycle, as to the unpopularity of the Government.
It’s probably not fair to say that this isn’t promising for Cameron, but that’s about context - statistically I think it’s equally fair to say that it’s not a whole lot better for the Tories in the counties than 2004 was in the corresponding districts.
325 - I wouldn’t be at all surprised at that as a result, as of today.
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So no edit function? What gives.
311 John - I totally agree - as I posted earlier, some of the Euro polls haven’t actually been that kind to UKIP. The odds against Labour are generous and if the two look likely to be within 2%-3% of each other, the odds of 9.5/1 you obtained against a tie for seats are just plain daft. 4/1 or maybe 5/1 right now would probably about right. I’m filling my boots too!
The key bit of the Gordo story, isn’t the fact he is such a moron detached from reality he doesn’t realise Council Tax is paid in 10 monthly installments! No, it is that he is a house “flipper” too, as Martin Day bangs on (rightly in this case) about.
Yellow Submarine: the issue for the LibDems is that there are near certain to lose half their seats (at least) in the South West, plus at least two and maybe as many as four London seats, plus half a dozen seats in the South East. A couple of Scottish seats could go, and all bar Cardiff are at risk in Wales. Or, to put it another way, they could lose *more than half* their current seats to resurgant Conservative and nationalists.
Now, there will be 10 or gains from Labour. But getting up to 20 requires some real stretches. You could have a situation where the LibDems poll in line with 2005 (22-23%), and end up with 40 seats or less.
In case any one is wondering, I am a seller of LibDem seats here.
“Getting votes where you need them is THE reason why there is a claimed “bias” in the electoral system requiring the Conservatives to get a 10% lead for a bare majority. If they are now getting votes where they need them, and Labour are getting them where they aren’t, then the 10% lead rapidly turns from bare majority into landslide.”
This is an important point from alex regarding polling. The supposed hurdle that the tories need to be a certain percentage ahead looks to be unwinding rapidly.
What the poll figures actually show is that the tories do not need a high percentage to be able to win big as what is happening is that the party losing support starts to fracture in all directions.
The idea that a party could be a clear winner yet have fewer seats would create a constitutional crisis. To tell you the truth I’d look forward to that but the likelihood was always that the system would correct its own bias as things go beyond parity.
Of course, this does nothing to right the bias against other parties but that’s another discussion.
weathercock: edit has been temporarily disabled because of server load. I’ll re-enable it after the server upgrade.
315 - A good point above about the BBC forgetting what these elections were all about. You get occasional results coming in but all you get is “what we are all waiting for is the important thing - the projected shares of the vote”.
NO!!!!
What is important is council seats changing hands BECAUSE THAT ACTUALLY CHANGES HOW PEOPLE ARE GOVERNED. And yet in a local elections programme the BBC (and Sky to be fair) treat the local councils as a sideshow. It’s no wonder nobody votes in them.
In a 2-3 hr results show the BBC could easily have put together a detailed analysis OF EVERY COUNCIL VOTING, given an opinion of expectations and relevant local issues, and considered what the results in each meant.
weathercock: the big issue this morning has been Register.com - but you’re right, at some point we probably need to take the operation off the current shoestring budget and do it properly.
326 - You clearly didn’t even read yesterday, you blind idiot!!!!
I said the use of appointing Lords just to get people into to cabinet has to stop, and criticised Thatcher for doing exactly the same (in fact as far as I am aware she started this sorry process, but seeing the loophole).
You obviously also haven’t heard my massive slagging off of John Major great “university” idea either.
I also have been very critical of Cameron’s plan for elected police chiefs.
Would you like me to go on?
Punter, yes, South Belfast would be a target. But the Catholic proportion of its electorate is increasing rapidly; it’s very liberal; and Alistair Macdonnell is a very moderate Nationalist, who probably gets a few hundred Protestant votes. Given an almost even split between UUP and DUP, it will be tough one to gain.
South Antrim OTOH, has a large middle class population who’ve moved out of Belfast who probably aren’t overjoyed by having the Singing Nun as their MP, and would be likely to back a Conservative candidate.
North Down is naturally Conservative territory.
We should note that there were nearly 70 councul byelections also held on Thursday , Labour gained 7 seats , 5 from Conservative 2 from SNP and lost none . Conservatives gained 1 from LibDem but lost 8 - 5 to Lab 1 each to LibDem/Residents and UKIP . This demonstrates that the Conservatives did not perform as well this year as they did in 2006/2007/2008 when these seats were last fought.
I think the BBC notional vote shares are a bit out but as I said previously they could not use the wards they normally use every year .
“Gordon Brown leadership: Labour rebels consider next move”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/jun/06/gordon-brown-leadership-labour-rebels
339 (cont) I also continually say I want to know what Cameron is going to do. I said it last night, when I said I don’t give a sod how much money him or his wife has, but I want to know what he is going to do with my tax money!
Mark Senior: thank goodness for the council byelections. I now know that we’ll see a storming Labour performance in the Euros, followed by a significantly increased majority in 2010. All Hail Emperor Brown!
339 Go on, as a more heat than light merchant, I see no value in you going on.
122 - I understand, its hard holding my head up in public when people know one of my sons supports Ipswich
341 The Lib Dems have just lost control of a huge swathe of their heartland in the South West and we have Mark Senior posting about a few trifling by elections.
341. Mark Senior
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
There was a huge swing from Labour to SNP in those by-elections.
‘Meltdown of Labour vote in heartlands’
The combined result of both of tonight’s by-elections are:
SNP: 2763 – 29.24% (+4.27%)
Labour: 4113 – 43.53% (-11.36%)
Tory: 677 – 7.17% (-0.13%)
LibDem: 349 – 3.69% (1.43%)
Other: 1546 – 16.36% (5.79%)
A 7.82% swing from Labour to the SNP from the 2007 election.
http://www.snp.org/node/15356
At last, I can see the comments!! Its more and more like an episode of “House of Cards?” Can’t you just see the manoeuvring which will be going on.
Only the most dedicated seem to be able to get on here today. Is it a plot by Downing Street to destroy independent original comment?
What is most shocking to me is that the first day the main focus of the media manages to shift away from the MPs’ ‘corruption’ issue, the main politicians decide that it is safe to crawl back to their own old ways. Gordon Brown’s decision to lie shamelessly about the previous plans to sack (sorry, ‘move’!) Alistair Darling is a case in point. He even tried to deliver it with the famous Tony Blair faltering voice. Perhaps his choice of subject for his ‘big lie’ was a bit pathetic compared with starting a war of multiple-death and mass destruction, but the sub text is the same. Ministers lie. What else do you expect? Get over it you media creatures and move on!! Who says so?? The lying politicians, that’s who. Mostly they get away with it but even on the rare occasion that they take a rap, they get rehabilitiated faster than you can say ‘knife’. The two Ministers, who seem to be ‘fronting’ most for the government on the present crisis are those personifications of honesty and correct accounting, Mandelson and Hain!!! Could you make this up?
Hain looked worse on Newsnight last night than Woollas did when confronted with Joanna Lumley but he kept on with the dalek-like mantra: “Nobody out there is interested in the answer to your question because… well because I say they don’t…. Nobody out there is interested……” Mandelson is effectively the Prime Minister without even having to face the Commons once a week. Wasn’t it in their capacity of ‘First Secretary’ that both Stalin and Maso Tse Tung exerted the majority of their power?
This morning on TV, Caroline Spelman MP also chose to try the ‘business as usual’ approach. Indeed, the person who tried it first was the Conservative puppetmaster who had the gall to put HER up for the TV commentary for the Tories in the first place. I thought she was doing rather well till the reporter tossed in a throwaway remark about Spelman’s own expense troubles. So out came the lie. She had apparently only been guilty of “paying her staff London rates instead of constituency rates.” Set aside, for one moment the fact that the House of Commons Gentleman’s club committee which heard her case would have approved the devil’s demand for an electric toaster in Hell if it was presented ‘in good faith’ (sic). This woman paid her nanny out of state funds which were not supplied for nannying. The day she stopped using state money for this, she carried on paying her exactly the same sum from her own pocket for nannying. Her principal accusers/prosecution witnesses on this matter were highly-respected Conservative staff including the wife of a front bench Conservative Member of Parliament. People who live in duck houses think that ducking once is good enough - then back into the moat.
It is even more amusing that Caroline Flint has also decided to use the commotion and confusion of the present environment to promote her own big lie. Flint says that Gordon Brown treated her as ‘window dressing’. No Caroline, those of us who saw the original Observer photo feature are quite clear that YOU defined yourself as ‘window-dressing’ (or undressing) which your record of mediocracy probably demanded to fuel your narcissism. Well, since you chose to define yourself in this fashion, sorry, Caroline, you are no Rachida Dati. Yes, Gordon did exploit you to the extent that he could when you offered yourself up to be exploited in such a faction. But should we blame him more than you?
As for James Purnell, he was beautifully damned by John Mann MP yeaterday as being a total ‘bubble man’ whose self-inflated worth is classical emperor’s new clothes, fed largely by the media and the patronage of ‘performance’-oriented bosses like Brown, Blair and Cameron. Along with Hoon, he presented Gordon with a chronic dripping problem about why he treated them any differently than ‘unacceptable’ Hazel Blears over their flipping CGT gains. He e was (and is) ‘damaged goods’. After all, when all’s said and done he was just another over-promoted Blair apprentice. Perhaps what Gordon has really got Alan Sugar into Downing Street is to say the words he cannot bring himself to utter to more of the advisor-monkeys (or himself)? “You’re fired!” Sugar is on record recently as saying on TV: “I don’t like Liars. I don’t like Cheats. I don’t like Bullshitters!” How long wil HE last in Brown’s Big Brother House?
334. Quite a plausible senario however at least we are shot of tottering Council administrations in Cornwall, Somerset and Devon. I’m actually quite a fan of much of the Somerset party but all three had become slightly decadent as we all do when we have been in power a bit to long. Its a bit of creative destruction. I need to look at more detail but from what I have seen where you align council losses to parliamentary constituiencies its not quite as bad as it looks in *bits* of the west.
Test
336. Thank you Robert, at least you are listening.
This site, doing such a great service to us political betters and bloggers, deserve the best.
Perhaps you can poll the bretheren about getting a fund going on the grounds I suggested.
I would like to nominate Mark Senior for the Most Deluded Commentator prize at this year’s PB.com annual award ceremony.
317 Thanks Robert - that’s working for me.
345 - Stop being a t##t, just because your “team” getting a ass woophing yesterday.
Many other regular posters on here have assessed my position on several occasions correctly, and in a more open minded way than your ignorant self.
I am simply somebody who is disgusted by Gordon Brown and his government (notice not the Labour Party as a whole), the way the media have been far too cozy with him and Blair beforehand to an extent where many have lost any sort of objective views of what is going on, and the BBC under Chief Labourite Lyons and all the Labourites in key positions have become the “Operation Save Gordo / Save Labour” propaganda machine.
Just posted on Iain’s site about Brown’s mental health and there are an awful lot of people who clearly think he is cracking up.
I’m really concerned about what Mandelson has been up to - his new Deputy PM job puts him in a very controlling as well as influential role.
He’s been playing Gordon like a fiddle on this one and I have zero faith that all Mandy wanted was an 18 word job title and a few more bods to boss around.
If Brown’s wheels come off - Mandy is right there to step in - how convenient.
350. Good to see Schumpeter being invoked in aid of Lib Dem election strategy!
348 There were 3 Scottish byelections on Thursday , Stuart , I wonder why you only include the figures from 2 of them .
344 Are all your posts equally fatuous ? I am simply pointing out that although the Labour performance was bad and the Conservative cc performance good , they were not as bad/good respectively as in 2007/2008 .
355 Not my fault that you make laughable claims to objective analysis.
308- Brown shows all the classic symptoms of narcissism, a mental health problem. I think this is compounded by bouts of anxiety and depression.
To use a non clinical term, Brown is bonkers. As mad as a box of frogs.
355 - Are the Freemasons and the WI part of your tedious obsession with a “Pravda” conspiracy?
Sad man
341. Is there any reason to suggest that these by elections are any more statistically signifigant than the thoasands of other council seats up on the same day. Even if they do show a radically differnt picture when you shove 70 seats into the dramtically larger national picture its just a fleck of balsamic vinagar in the tomato sause we are cooking.
What ares the top line results from yesterday ?
- Labour exterminated and by very efficent use of Tory votes in marginal seats.
- Huge others votes by local standards
- Lib Dems holding there own in seats/votes but being pasted hwere they were in charge. A pattern that is well established in locals and deepening.
Why deny the obvious? Particualrly when your stuff on Vote 2007 is generally very good and much more detached.
335 - I have been banging on about this sort of point for ages and ages. The fact is the reason the Conservatives didn’t do especially well in 2001 and 2005 is that it was piling up votes in the less than 200 seats it already held and not getting votes elsewhere. In the CC elections it looks like the Conservatives seemed to push up their vote the most in areas that they needed to push it up the most and in other areas where they were already at high levels it didn’t go up so much. Couple that with the fact that Labour’s vote collapsed all over the place and you can understand what happened. I am looking forward to the updated Marginals poll, as I think we will see evidence that the Conservatives are doing extremely well where they need to.
is there a market on whether the PB site will stay up and running through the Euro election results tomorrow night or the night of the general election
William Hill - Nick Clegg’s Successor
Chris Huhne 5/2
Vincent Cable 6/1
Edward Davey 7/1
Michael Moore 10/1
Nick Harvey 10/1
Danny Alexander 12/1
David Laws 12/1
Alistair Carmichael 16/1
Julia Goldsworthy 16/1
Sarah Teather 16/1
Simon Hughes 25/1
Charles Kennedy 25/1
337 Very true Alex. The BBC fails completely its duty as a public service broadcaster in not providing a results programme that was actually about the results and Local Government and what is happening.
Great stories yesterday, that properly presented could have greatly increased public engagement. Labour wiped out or suffering huge losses in some counties - how did the losers feel, what about the winners? Nottinghamshire - Labour losses and would the Conservatives get the overall control, right up last declarations it wasn’t clear. Lib Dems in Bristol, what would that change? Lib Dems being hit hard in Cornwall & Devon, why?
Imagine a US version, maps up showing wards falling as declarations come in. local colour provided by talking about the councillors who have lost or won.
The only real view of councillors was Cameron with the victors, Clegg with his.
348. Stuart, there were 3 Scottish by-elections on Thursday. You’ve missed out the Bishopbriggs one which counted on Friday. Coincidentally the one with the smallest Lab to SNP swing.
Lab 39.2 ( -2.4 )
SNP 23.4 ( +3.3 )
LD 20.6 ( +9.8 )
Con 14.0 ( -0.1 )
SSP 2.7 ( +2.7 ).
290. Wibbler a Telegraph mistake perhaps. But the story may be followed up in other Sunday newspapers and still damage Brown.
361 - Ho ho ho, Fiddling Farmer Tupac talking about tedious obsession. So is it Bullingdon, SS, IHT, or Dorries today then?
177 - well said sir.
334 The only reason Montgomeryshire is at risk is one word Lembit. While the others are under threat I’d be surprised if they all go. Ceredigion will be so tight but a new Lib Dem MP could hang on. Brecon and Radnorshire will depend on where the large Labour vote goes. As you say Cardiff Central is safe but they are having a good go at Newport East and Swansea West, the latter a very likely gain I reckon.
365. How many of those are compromised by Scamalot? Half? More?
369 - You spend 7 days a week, 12+ hrs a day smearing along 3-4 topics, thats it.
I try to by very consistent with the BBC, I call them the BBC when they are doing their job properly, Andrew Neal does a decent job of giving anybody a good grilling, as does Paxman.
However, as we saw yesterday, it was full on Pravda mode, bad day for the Tories, disappointing etc, standing in front of a map of the UK that was completely blue, except for one tiny spot of yellow.
360. People have been saying so for years. Is is finally sinking in for Labour supporters?
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365. Steve Webb (of this parish) should be on that list, I’d have thought. David Howarth might also be a future prospect.
“As well as the misogynist, football loving bullies he surrounds himself with, the undermining of colleagues and destruction of party and national politics we have his hypocrisy across policy.”
Paul Farelly’s points echo what we see here, and elsewhere, from the noisiest empty vessels representing the government (who may be connected to the inner circle or who just ape it without engaging brain).
These people have ruined labour so that its image is now of a macho, thuggish clique - I knew it as an inclusive, empathetic band of like minded people. No more, and that’s a tragedy for the people who it once sought to represent.
When you have labour people using ‘girl’ as a pejorative and mistaking twisted misanthropy for humour then you know that the people left are the dregs and that anyone decent has left.
377 Does that stand up. I heard Harriet Harman called many things, but a misogynist football loving bully is a new one to me. As one Browns closest long standing allies you would have to include her in that description. Nothing wrong in liking footbal is there?
337. What was truly shocking was the lamentable BBC online service. Horribly slow and uninformative, lacking any insight or interesting graphics etc; dull, inaccurate and amateurish.
They have only just updated the council results, and I’m still not sure they are correct.
Compare and contrast with CNN or MSNBC or Fox in America, covering the presidentials. And its not like there is a cash issue, the BBC is one of the world’s richest broadcasters - and this is precisely their job: to provide a fine public service that the private sector can’t.
GRRRRR. I tend not to join in the Beeb-bashing, yes they are biased but its fixable, and not necessarily deliberate; however this latest rubbishness has irked me. What am I paying my licence fee for??
Cameron should really put the blade to the BBC’s throat when he gets into power. Sort it out, Auntie, or see the fee halved, or worse.
365 et al. I don’t see a lot of value in those. Nick Clegg has I think saved his Leadership with the turn around since November: Gaza, Green spending instead of VAT, Damian Green, Gurhkas, 100 days, defusing albeit in a grubby way the rennard timebomb, *eventually* getting a good tax policy. Huhne buggered up over that funny dutch man whoes name I have forgotten. Vince is now too old and doesn’t really want it. Vince could have gone nuclear the weekend of the Plane Stupid coverage and he’d have been Leader by Christmas but he didn’t because he is too loyal.
Clegg will get the bullet if the nightmare senario happens and we are down below 46 seats the 1997 benchmark but failing that I think he’ll fight a second election and then probably the 2015 devloved bodies or 2016 Mayorals/mid terms.
Also Greg Mulholland and Kirsty Williams should be on that list.
378 - Harperson, allies? You are having a laugh right?
That is why when she won the deputy leadership, it became nothing more than a ceremonial title. We saw yesterday who is the real deputy leader, and it is reflected in his new job title.
380. YS - I don’t understand why the Lib Dems haven’t made more of their green investment policy (drawn up by Webb and Cable IIRC). Why not hammer Labour on job creation before the election, and then the Tories after the election?
381 Harriet was well known to be Brown’s favoured candidate.
Totally OT. Black Bear island looks a decent contender at working man’s odds for the Derby.
New thread: Why Labour shouldn’t put its hopes on the economy
379. Indeed, the best results service I saw was Lincolnshire Council’s web page. Whoever came up with that could show the BBC how to do it!
383 - Ok, chumpty chump, you keep believe Harperson bats for Gordo. She bats for herself and all women kind.
383. Sadly for Hattie, Brown’s favoured candidate was not his best buddy, but the one he feared least
Yellow Submarine “Re Nick Starling and Norwich North. As well as being on the approved candidates list he’ll need to get through a By Election Star Chamber at Cowley Street. I would have thought there were enough things on his blog to sinkn a carrier group. Its not necesserily a good thing for politics but the media would chew up and spit out his level of freely expressed thought.”
It’s a tragedy that freely expressed thought is seen as a barrier to progression. It’s that view that has got us into the dire mess that we are in.
We need a parliament full of people who are not beholden to their party’s groupthink.
Having read his blog on occasion I think he’d be a very good MP, whether he’d stand a chance in the seat is another matter but it’s a by election and that’s always a leg up.
378. Are you really claiming that New Labour hasn’t specialised in thugs and bullies?
Two words: Campbell and McBride.
The satire of the boorish cussing Scottish Labour media-hooligan in The Thick of It works so well because it is so close to the truth.
I can understand WHY these people have evolved in Labour - it was in response to the media mauling the left got in the 80s. Labour felt they had to toughen up. But since then the Campbells and McBrides have gone from being a minor part of Labour’s politics to being the dominant force; they set the overall tone, they rule MPS with fear, they ARE New Labour.
In short: Labour are the nasty party now, and they are seen as such by voters, and - as Tories will no doubt tell you - once you get that tag it takes a decade to remove. Or more.
383 - not because of any personal alliance. Because he thought it would look better if the Deputy was a woman.
Have you forgotten how Brown essentially destroyed her early ministerial career when she was at Social Security?
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366. Good point Ted.
Labour were not just wiped from the map, they were clinically exterminated.
Eric Pickles was the supposed mastermind behind this Conservative triumph, having all the targets marked and wiped out, by what I can only describe as activist stormtroopers.
I forgive Pickles all his faux pas before the TV screens, when he does such a brilliant job as this in the backrooms. Just keep him away fro QT.
381 - exactly - she is defending the Labour Party right now and doing a rather effective job given the crap hand she’s got.
Brown wouldn’t give her the time of day if he wasn’t forced to - and I don’t think its because of her sex, it’s because of her potential as a rival.
IMO Gordon thinks that he is the Labour Party, and can do what he likes.
Peter from Putney- I think it is far more likely that Labour will tie with LD’s, and possibly even the Greens. All my Labour friends have voted en masse to the Greens and expect all 3 to be in the 10-15% range. UKIP will come comfortably 2nd in my opinion.
I am rather hoping for the Greens to beat Labour into 5th, something that Gordon cannot survive. Surely.
BTW- how are you doing on the French Open?
373.
“Andrew Neal does a decent job of giving anybody a good grilling”
Is this a Private Eye euphamism? Neill seems to share the same interests as well as the tonsure of Berlusconi. :-). He’s sharp enough with Labour and Lib Dems but a kitten with the Tories.
378 Jonathan
UKPaul was quoting me. Harriet Harman is not in Gordon’s close circle, I doubt he consults her on anything.
378 - Well the football comment is more a cultural indicator I think (i.e. drunk hooligan). There has (at least since my time in the early eighties) a division between the macho pseudo-working-class element and the Guardianista element (and you can go back to see that with Fabians, trade unionists etc.). At the moment the Guardianistas are in disarray, decamping to greens and lib dems in numbers.
Beware the rise of the independent candidate in the Norwich North seat. Written off at the last general due to a failure to gain TV and Radio coverage. But the word “independent” on any ballot sheet is liable to atract the hand of the voter at this next by/general election.
share you some great wallpapers http://www.uwall.net/