Could the “Gael Poll” be an elaborate hoax?
September 22nd, 2009
Have I just wasted £100?
Yesterday evening I got a call and an email purporting to be from the UKIP press office alerting me to a poll that was just coming out showing the the NO campaign in the Irish Lisbon referendum had taken a substantial lead.
It was said that before the 2008 referendum the same pollster had had a survey in the Irish Sun which had produced a prediction, within one percent, of the final result.
I was urged to make contact with the man behind the Gael Poll who would explain the methodology.
A search of Google could not find any news organisation that was putting out these numbers. Seven hours later, (at the time of writing it’s now 2am), I still cannot find any independent verification. The search page above shows what happened when I put “Gael Poll” into Google news search.
Alas after the “poll” was being discussed on the previous thread I did put £100 on at 11/2 on a NO victory with PaddyPower. That might turn out to be pretty foolish for on reflection it does seem odd that the leading Irish bookie was still prepared to lay such a bet at that price.
The polls that have been published in the Irish media are all suggesting a solid YES victory.
Mike Smithson
***On PB2 - A post from me on the latest Bedford flare-up
MessageSpace Advertising
can’t belive I’m first
Mike on a more serious point how do you make donations for the running of the site?
re 2. There is a donate button here -
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/07/30/introducing-the-pb-early-birds/
Go fourth and multiply!
Mike - Slugger O’Toole’s blog
Hope this was not a hoax, and you have not wasted that amount of money.
Could this poll have been leaked early than intended because the figures are so explosive in light of the previous ones?
This is one bet I very much hope you win Mike.
But now in the lap of the Gods I’m afraid.
maybe not… if you search the webpages on google then a few pages do come up, with this one containing quite a lot of analysis so might be true after all!! It also quotes the paper as being the irish sun.
http://blogs.libertas.eu/ireland/2009/09/21/new-poll-shows-no-said-with-large-lead/
If it is a hoax Mike just take it on the chin and move on, best way.
FPT by Mike L September 22nd, 2009 at 2:01 am
I think it’s unlikely that any Referendum Bill could be introduced before the Queen’s Speech as the period up till then will be used entirely to complete legislation already introduced this session.
The Queen’s Speech is on 18 November. If the Bill has to have Royal Ascent by 25 February 2010 that gives 14 weeks less approx 4 weeks for the Christmas holiday = 10 weeks.
Is it realistic that it would get through all Commons readings, Lords readings and Committees in less than 10 weeks? That sounds incredibly tight.
RE ABOVE POST - there was a Times article the other day above Mandelson clearing out a load of current legislation - so the plot thickens. Maybe they are really considering the referendum bill.. I wouldn’t be suprised.
“Now, The Times has obtained a letter from the Business Secretary showing that a Government-wide operation is under way to identify other casualties of the downturn. ”
“The instruction to start clearing-out measures — dated August 28 — sets Lord Mandelson on a collision course with Harriet Harman and the unions, who are championing many of the new laws that he most wants to shelve.
In the letter, sent to other members of a Cabinet sub-committee, Lord Mandelson wrote: “I support the approach that where measures appear without a planned implementation date — and on the assumption they are not planned for the near future — we commit to not imposing these measures until after April 2011.”
The thread is here..
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6837648.ece
So WHY is he clearing out all this legislation if not for a referendum bill, the article says it is part of a Cabinet-wide clear-out of “anti-business” measures ?? THAT is the question.
Re 8. I didn’t think it was possible for the passage of a Bill to straddle two Parliamentary sessions - ie unless a Bill has passed all stages it falls at the end of a Parliamentary session and then has to be reintroduced again from scratch in the new session.
So unless it passes all stages before 18 November (which must be inconceivable), it would have to be introduced from scratch after 18 November.
Making the rounds of the blogosphere tonight is this Mike (just one of the blogs which have posted on the subject):
http://tvotr.blogspot.com/2009/09/ireland-beginning-to-look-set-to-vote.html
I’m not one for taking polls seriously but they’re always worth viewing.
“It should be noted Irish Sun is not associated with any newspaper published in the UK or Ireland, nor is it associated with the UK tabloid newspaper The Sun, which has an Irish edition. It is purely an online news portal, and is only connected with other online news services.”
http://www.irishsun.com/
No sign of a poll at the moment. The blogoshere may well reacted to the tweet earlier.
8.”we commit to not imposing these measures until after April 2011.””
LTL, still think the GE will be the end of March, or into April before those pay packets hit the doormats.
10.Subrosa, I noticed that too.
12 - seems about right Christina, unless of course there was a ‘no’ vote in Ireland. Not convinced of that but if it did happen Mandy might just cut Gordon loose.
This definitely smells funny - though I thought if Ladbrokes politics were actively retweeting it, so they may also have been hoodwinked.
Against that is Anthony Wells, who seems to have some description of the methodology purportedly used
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2264
Unfortunately he seems to think (I agree) the methodology is fatally flawed.
In any case, there’s definitely a whiff of something strange about all this.
Front pages
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/The-National-Newspaper-Front-Pages-Tuesday-September-22-2009/Media-Gallery/200909315385850?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15385850_The_National_Newspaper_Front_Pages_Tuesday_September_22%2C_2009
Pretty neutral - no immediately devastating stories for Labour though the pound-euro tourist rate parity is definitely embarassing, and the coverage of the asylum seekers’ camp at Calais won’t help. LDs will be unhappy their mansion tax didn’t get any coverage.
Not even a particularly elaborate hoax, is it? Looks more like someone e-mailed a made-up press release to a couple of bloggers…
Out of interest, if you did something like this and used it to make money on the betting markets, would you be breaking any laws?
14.LTL, nothing would surprise me with this lot right now, or in particular the Dark Prince. Anyway, only up right now because we have quite a storm raging here tonight. Autumn is definitely about now.
(Previous thread)
137. Who is Arthur Dunn? Do you mean Arthur Lowe, or Clive Dunn, or Captain Mainwairing, or Corporal Jones?
395. If there are any American teenagers reading this website, then if you are going to have a fight, film it and put it on the internet, then FFS (a) speak clearly so that we can hear what you’re arguing about (b) put subtitles on your video, and (c) clear the area so that we don’t get annoying chavy morons wandering in front of the camera at crucial moments. And if you’re an American teenager not reading this website, then Fuff Ock anyway because you’re a moron and you should be interested in politics like normal people.
18 - it’s quite windy down in Glasgow, hubby has a mountain tent up in the garden getting a wind test
It’s been lovely for the past few days though. Insomnia still bad though.
Wibbler@15, Anthony Wells may just have been getting the stuff about the methodology from the account of the poll that was circulating on politics.ie and elsewhere, and which Yokel posted yesterday @125. (I’ll repost it below.) It specifies the places where they allegedly polled, which is what Anthony Wells is commenting on.
Thinking about it now, it also seems a bit suspicious that the pollster is quoted as knowing all about the reasons why people were planning to vote “no”, while claiming only to have asked a single question.
Here’s Yokel @125 FPT:
“A report on the poll. H/T to Tom Prendeville & Alamanac on Politics.ie
A new opinion poll shows that there has been a massive surge in support for the No side, which, if it holds till voting day would result in the Lisbon Treaty being heavily defeated by a margin of 59% NO ‘V’ 41% YES.
In one of the largest polls of its kind ever carried out: Gael Poll polled 1,500 respondents in Dublin, Cork, Limerick, Waterford, Kilkenny, Galway, Athlone, Tralee, Dundalk and Letterkenny over the course of six days last week.
The respondents were asked one single question: How do you intend to vote in the Lisbon Treaty Referendum?
A substantial 723 (59 %) said they intended voting No as opposed to 502 (41%) who indicated that they would vote Yes. The survey also showed that 15% percent of voters were still undecided.
When pollsters discounted the don’t knows: an overwhelming 59% of people would vote No in the referendum as opposed to 41% who indicated that they would vote Yes. The last Gael Poll which was published in the Irish Sun (June 4th 2008) accurately predicted that the Lisbon Treaty would be defeated by a margin of 54 % for the No side versus 46% for Yes campaigners.
On the day of the count -which took place nine days later- the actual result was 53.4% No and 46.6 % Yes.
The uncanny poll prediction which was out by only a half a percent was the most accurate poll in the country.
Pollsters at Gael Poll which is a non-profit social affairs research organization are quietly confident that they will be accurate for a second year in a row:
“Our Poll was carried out over an extended six day period and we used the exact same methodology as we used last year. In our experience the vote is not half as fluid as one might believe. People tend to have very definite ideas about which way they intend to vote, and those who don’t know tend not to vote at all,” explains Pollster Paul Murphy.
One interesting insight that the pollsters gleaned were the variety of ‘off the radar’ reasons why people intend to vote No:
“Frankly a lot of the personalities who are fronting the Yes campaign don’t appear to be very popular and a lot of people have commented upon this.”
“Apart from the obvious well known issues, we found that people were very concernd about the curtailment of alternative medicines and the banning of turf cutting to the over preponderance of EU flags and emblems. If you were to boil it down to core emotions, No voters tend to be enraged and up for a fight whereas Yes voters tend to be motivated by economic fears,” explained Paul Murphy.
The results will came as a shock to the Government and business groups who have poured over €10 Million Euros+ campaigning for a yes vote in the Lisbon Treaty. In comparison No campaigners are poorly funded with a total combined spend of just under €1 Million Euros.”
18 oops too many ‘thoughs’.
As a Unionist I sometimes feel frustrated because the United Kingdom doesn’t have its own name; it’s just a list of its ingredients. I prefer to think of myself as a United-Kingdomian rather than British or English, but that’s not a proper word. It would have been helpful if a neologism had been invented at the time of the creation of the UK in 1801 - like “Britannia” for example. I like the idea of being a Britannian.
If Scotland became independent, I would prefer the remaining part of the UK to be called “The United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland” rather than trying to use the name Britain or Great Britain or Southern Great Britain or whatever.
Someone mentioned the Czech/Slovak separation. I was interested to discover recently that Liechtenstein and Slovakia don’t recognise each other because of an obscure historical technicality relating to the confiscation of property owned by the Prince of Liechtenstein as part of the arrangements for resettling ethnic Germans after the war.
The Sun is trying to smash the Cable myth ..
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/sun_says/244723/The-Sun-Says.html
“According to legend, Vince was first to see the bank crisis coming, first to demand near-zero interest rates and first to say we must print money. Except… he wasn’t.
He now admits he had NO idea banks were imploding - and argued AGAINST telling the Bank of England what to do about interest rates and cash flow.
The only thing Vince did first was to jump on the bandwagon as soon as the wind changed.
None of this would matter if we could treat the Lib-Dems as the irrelevance they mostly are.
But the Government wants to use the election to change the way we elect parties. That raises the alarming prospect of a Lib-Lab coalition, with all the horrors that would entail.
This cannot - and must not - be allowed to happen. ”
Oh dear.
23. “If Scotland became independent, I would prefer the remaining part of the UK to be called ‘The United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland’ rather than trying to use the name Britain or Great Britain or Southern Great Britain or whatever.”
I’m pretty sure it would be, John - almost any other formulation I can think of wouldn’t take account of the status of Northern Ireland. Even if NI was taken out of the equation, ‘England and Wales’ would still be a more natural name than ‘Southern Britain’.
Interesting, I suppose it did look a little too good to be true.
Brown is snubbed by Obama; no bilateral talks
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/2648988/Barack-Obamas-talks-snub-for-Gordon-Brown.html
Can you imagine Tony Blair EVER being blanked by a US President - be it Clinton, or Bush?
Having said which, the snub is pretty bad form on Obama’s part.
Of any country, we will be most willing to support any Afghanistan surge necessary to train more Afghan National Army.
Britain hasn’t usually expected many things for it’s role as America’s global poodle - but full-on diplomatic niceties have been one of them.
27. No, but that’s only because I can’t imagine Blair being anything other than an obedient poodle towards the US president, regardless of ideology.
27. wibbler.
From that article:
Number 10 insisted there was no snub and the pair will sit next to each other at the United Nations and G20 talks.
Do they think we don’t understand the alphabet?
30. Well, I suppose there are options. Didn’t we once switch to the French spelling (Royaume-Uni) to avoid being seated next to a particular country? Sadly, it wasn’t the United States.
29 Red Meteor
I reckon Blair had far more influence on American foreign policy than Brown ever will.
Blair genuinely believed Iraq was the right thing to do.
I disagree vehemently on that point. I think it was a total shambles, an utter disaster.
That said, given it was borne out of a genuine conviction on his part, Blair took the right path when it came to dealing with the Americans. I’m not talking about the awful dodgy dossiers and the actual strategy of the war - that was all a total disaster.
I am talking instead of the diplomatic stance he took vis-a-vis America GIVEN he agreed with the war in Iraq.
31. RM.
Well, there are possibly other options. Bernard Woolley had to find one:
No, we can’t have alphabetical seating in the Abbey. You’d have Iraq and Iran next to each other. Plus Israel and Jordan all sitting in the same pew. We’d be in danger of starting World War III. [...] I know Ireland begins with an ‘I’ but no! Ireland doesn’t make it any better; Ireland doesn’t make anything any better.
Populus have now (at last! - why does it take a week?) published the detailed datasheets from their latest Times poll.
Another wonderful poll for southern English Tories, especially in the South West!!
Another absolutely catastrophic poll for Scottish Lib Dems, but a good moral boost for Scottish Tories.
Here are the geographical breaks:
Sept 11-13
SE England
Con 50%
Lab 20%
LD 17%
Grn 6%
Midlands
Con 44%
Lab 25%
LD 17%
North England
Con 34%
Lab 32%
LD 20%
Wales & SW England
Con 48%
Lab 23%
LD 18%
PC 4%
Scotland
(+/- change from UK GE 2005)
Lab 31% (-8)
SNP 28% (+10)
Con 26% (+10)
LD 12% (-11)
http://populuslimited.com/uploads/download_pdf-130909-The-Times-The-Times-Poll—September.pdf
And Blair did win concessions. He managed to get Bush to take at least a nominal interest in resolving the Israel/Palestine problems, when otherwise Bush couldn’t have cared less.
Whatever disagreements we may have over whether it was right to release al-Megrahi, I suspect we agree that Blair was instrumental in bringing Libya into the fold of civilized nations - meeting Gadaffi where Bush couldn’t - and in doing so atoned partially for his sins in Iraq, and making us slightly safer. OK, he did it in a ill-judged way, with all sorts of slimy backroom deals on oil, prisoners and amnesties - but he did it.
I’m fairly sure, though, that the Libya wouldn’t have done anything without serious pressure from the US State Department.
Anybody remember a Gael Poll last here? I don’t!
If you pump those Scottish numbers into Baxter, you get 11 Scottish Tory seats, so back to 1992-ish (John Major) levels. Tory seats would be (Labour-held seat unless otherwise stated):
Aberdeen South (from 3rd, leapfrogging Lib Dems)
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine (from LD)
Argyll and Bute (from LD)
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (from LD)
Dumfries and Galloway
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (Con hold)
Edinburgh North and Leith (from 3rd, leapfrogging Lib Dems)
Edinburgh South (from 3rd, leapfrogging Lib Dems)
Edinburgh South West (Alastair Darling)
Renfrewshire East (Jim Murphy)
Stirling
They would also be extremely close in:
- Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock (Lab seat)
- East Dunbartonshire (LD seat, Con currently in 3rd place behind Lab)
Ladbrokes - Number of Scottish Conservative Seats
0-3 2/1
4-6 13/8
7 or more 7/4
‘Lib Dems ready to back vote on split from UK’
The Liberal Democrats are considering ditching their opposition to the SNP’s referendum bill as senior figures warned that a Tory election victory could lead to the break-up of the UK.
The Scotsman has learned that party strategists are now in serious talks about supporting an independence referendum in 2010 as they believe this could be the best chance of winning the argument and maintaining the union.
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/latestnews/Lib-Dems-ready-to-back.5666438.jp
Five Live reports Baroness Scotland to be fined by UK Border Agency but not asked to resign from the government.
39 The key on the Scottish the referendum is the question.
The Lib dems should not support if the question has only the option of the status quo or Independence.There should be the option of more devolved powers which opinion polls suggest is theM most favoured option.
40 LondonStatto
The best possible outcome.
She is proven guilty, yet Gordon Brown dithers, gets more terrible headlines out of it to no end, before probably being forced to sack her in his ‘mini-reshuffle’.
Sounds good to me.
***On PB2 - A post from me on the latest Bedford flare-up
8/9 - yes, it is possible for a Bill to straddle two Parliamentary sessions. This was a reform introduced many years ago called “carry over”. At the end of the parliamentary year, the government has the right to move a motion to allow the Bill to be reintroduced in the next session at the same point it was in the previous session.
28. I wonder if it is so much a snub for Britain as a snub for Brown? Obama may not want to waste his time talking with a man who has less than a year left to govern, and who probably has little to do with day-to-day decision making. Once Cameron is in place, the attitude may change.
Vote Libdem, get Labour
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/sep/21/lab-lib-dem-ideas-coalition
16.Should think the Lib dems are relieved there are no front pages!
The conference gave a chance to the lib Dems to at least push them towards the 20% mark.
They had a good story with increase in personal allowance and tax cuts to help low and middle income earners through the recession-but that was eclipsed by the mansion tax.
The conference has been incoherent- no theme,appearing to drop policy commitments like abolishment of tuition fees,introducing new ones that are not policy like mansion tax,attacking the Tories instead of pushing a positive programme,making spending cut proposals with loose language,thus potentially turning off vurtually every target group,and postioning the party as savage cutters,and finally confusing even the activists.
I’m not a Tory supporter,but no doubt the Tory confernce will be a model of clarity compared to the shambles of the past few days.
Conservative rule at Westminster ‘would be risk to UK unity’
Vince Cable, the party’s Treasury spokesman, predicted that a combination of Conservative rule at Westminster and Scottish National party control of Holyrood could threaten the union.
Cable said: “There is a scenario looming – and we hope it won’t happen – but we may get a Conservative government with one or two Scottish MP and absolutely no mandate north of the border.
He added: “Unless we grapple with this, it will lead to conflict and possible secession. We have to start raising the warning here and now about what could happen.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/sep/21/conservative-snp-devolution-vince-cable
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/barackobama/6216567/Gordon-Brown-sidestepped-by-President-Barack-Obama-at-G20.html
45. “Have I wasted £100 ?” No,Mike, you can claim it back on Betfair with a tiny profit by laying 5.6 or backing 1.22.I think the latter is better !
I sent you an email yesterday,hope it arrived and hello to David Kendrick.My email facility is not the finest.
42 And so the white working class are driven further towards the BNP, thinking “it’s one rule for us and one for them”…. Well done Gordon. Good effort. Can we scribble “enabled first fascist MP” on your tombstone too, to add to your list of woeful achievements?
Does Gordon really give a toss any more? There was a time when a solicitor would have been dragged before the Law Society for trying to get away without paying their bus fare. Now the highest law officer in the land can commit a serious criminal offence - and still stick to their job like a limpet? Sorry, but this Govt. has destroyed the concept of “doing the right thing”. It was one thing when they didn’t resign because they blamed their departmental failings on some faceless underling; but to have been banged to rights and still stay on as Attorney General is, frankly, taking the piss.
46 For some Lib Dems, I don’t think that there is *anything* that Labour could do that would stop them from wishing to form a coalition with them. Labour could re-enact the Nuremburg Laws and they’d still be talking about a “progressive consensus”.
48 If enough Scottish Lib Dems switch to the Conservatives, then Cable will have nothing to worry about.
re 50. Thanks - David Kendrick will be contacting you to ask for your view about a very interesting political betting project
Evidence once again that astroturfers are like scabies - very irritating but not really that serious and easily cured - but rampers are like syphillis.
I wonder whether Huhne has reflected overnight on his speech today - and has taken out the blue-pencil to the personal attack on Hague?
Off topic, the Mary Riddell article in the Telegraph has been much-linked, but one passage in it has been overlooked:
“Mr Brown, as he must know, cannot now be saved by being a global Mr Fixit, or by appealing to what Number 10 calls “the squeezed middle”. Even so, Labour will not end up at 26 per cent but, at worst, in the low 30s.”
Mary Riddell is the last Brown-loyalist journalist, so we can take it this represents the official Brown view of the next election. If so, it is hopelessly optimistic to suggest that it is inevitable Labour won’t end up on 26% but also indirectly suggests that Gordon Brown is not thinking about his departure if he is deluding himself in this way.
51. “All animals are treated equally before law.” As they rubbed their eyes, they noticed a new phrase, “except for the pigs who are above the law.”
Somethings Labour act as if 1984 was part of a training manual, but now they seem to be using Aninal Farm as an appendix.
41. I am pretty sure Alex Salmond would prefer the 3 option question , he would be happy to take extra powers as the next step rather than gamble all on an all or nothing.
56 So, where are the votes going to come from to take Labour up to the low thirties?
It’s fair to assume that the Conservatives will remain on 40-43%; they’re not going to switch to Labour; UKIP and the BNP will remain on 2-4% each; they won’t change either. I can’t see the Lib Dems dropping below 19%. The SNP look as though they’ll do pretty well, and there’ll be a reasonable vote for the Greens as well. 30% looks like the absolute ceiling for the Labour vote, to me.
re irish vote - i think the no vote may be gaining ground party because of this
Mr Ganley said Mr Justice Clarke’s clarification showed that Yes campaign warnings of the threat to jobs if the treaty was rejected were “ridiculous”.
“They bedded themselves in on this argument, and it is on this argument that they are falling down because it is just not true.
“Their arguments don’t stand up to even the most simple scrutiny . . . There is not one single thing in it that creates a single job in Ireland. The only job that the Lisbon Treaty will save is Brian Cowen’s. There is nothing good in here for the Irish economy, and there is nothing good for job-creation.”
Last time the Irish no produced one of my largest wins ever - i will be reading the runes to see whether there is another such opportunity
55
just seen a few secs of Huhne attacking the Consrvatives and the new grouping in Europe…
Off topic again, Polly Toynbee in the Guardian cogently explains why a referendum on PR won’t happen before the next election even as she advocates it:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/sep/21/electoral-reform-pr-labour-straw
“Yesterday’s cabinet sub-committee discussed a paper on options drawn up by Jack Straw, an outspoken opponent of PR. His trump card is a claim that a referendum is technically impossible unless the enabling bill passes all its parliamentary stages by 25 February – the last possible date before the last possible election day. The Tories in the Lords could filibuster the bill past that day. However, the Electoral Reform Society reckons the Lords have an obligation to pass it since a referendum was mentioned in Labour’s last three manifestos. What’s more, the society reckons that, with enough crossbenchers in favour, the Lords might well pass the bill anyway. Labour should go for it and expose the depth of the Tories’ refusal to make political change.”
“It looks like a kind of gerrymandering, the last gasp of a dying party, say cabinet opponents. Yes, it smacks of panic that Labour never reformed parliament when it could.”
“What if the cabinet splits over the referendum? Some fear it will look chaotic.”
59 - If Labour do improve, it will be from “don’t know”. For myself, 26% seems an entirely sensible guess as to what Labour might finally tally.
So what does it need for a government minister to resign?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8268101.stm
Can I claim a technical breach of the ‘rules’?
OT
Page 2 in the Sun this morning “Labours lost trust … Labour was up 1 to 21percent”.
Hilarious I bet Labour HQ have been on the phone already !
ICM/Guardian series - September before General Elections
2004/5: Poll 32-36-22; Result 33.2-36.2-22.6
2000/1: Poll 38-34-22; Result 32.7-42.0-18.8
1996/7: Poll 32-47-16; Result 31.4-44.4-17.2
59 “I can’t see the Lib Dems dropping below 19%”
My views on how the LibDems will be squeezed at the next election are well known; but I think after their car-crash performance of the last few days, Labour will think that a few percent of that is there for the taking.
Sadly for Labour, I think it will be matched point-for-point by the Tories too. LibDems on 15%, Labour +2%, Tories +2% perhaps?
So our great leader goes to Washington and in his normal manner of UK leadership will manage to meet Gadaffi but not Obama for a 1 to 1 chat.
How very typical.
The Attorney General is to stay as her mistake was ‘inadvertent’.
How very typical.
Angela Eagle, Pensions Minister, when challenged about pensions and the divide between public and private sector provision on ITV Tonight and how she as an MP looking forward to 70k a year pension had little motive to do anything. She said the average public sector pension is just 5,000 a year… now in the private sector that needs a pension ‘pot’ of 100,000 to get that and the average private sector annuity is actually 28,000 so just over a 1/4 of the public sector average. She also ignored any reference to her pension.
How very typical.
Further to my 66, that September 2000 poll was at the height of the fuel protests and was sandwiched in between polls of 34-44-17 and 35-40-19.
If its a hoax, Libertas has to be in the running.
67 et al. I am a Buyer of LD Seats at 48.0 if anyone wants a bet on Betfair Line Market.
The bet suits my Book no end but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to lose it.
Fair value for someone who doesn’t like LD chances.
64 “Can I claim a technical breach of the ‘rules’?”
Only if you are fighting in the War Against the Tories.
It also helps if you are a BME woman. But under NO circumstances should a white, middle-aged Tory bloke try this “technical breach” defence. It will automatically double your sentence.
72. Marquee Mark.
Being a white, middle-aged Tory bloke is enough to double the sentence…
Well bugger that. Sure the bet is largely covered against loss but a bit of a bollocks to wake up to.
72 - Do we really think the race of the employer is significant?
Of course the Right on here usually cite prosecution stats for Chinese and Bengali Reastaurants to back up their view that its mainly BME employers being prosecuted.
Hey ho.
Cue The usual suspects.
Ah, I see WelcherBot has clocked on.
7:54am - that’s a bit late for you; did you get stuck on the Tube?
75 You can’t have decades of campaigning for racial and sexual equality - and then have some unequal standard applied when it comes to law-breaking. She didn’t break “technical rules” - she broke the law. With a deliciously high embarrassment factor, HER OWN law. Ignorance of the law is not defence, but WRTING IT should destroy any chance of mitigation.
Do you think a white middle-aged bloke would still be Attorney General if he had broken a law that he had himself championed through Parliament? I think even Labour would have struggled to justify that one to itself.
Clearly the notion of “purer than pure” got chucked out of Downing Street with Tony’s other stuff…
Guido has more on the Baroness Scotland story:
http://order-order.com/2009/09/22/ukba-source-baroness-scotland-served-with-notice-of-potential-liability/
Alex Smith at Labour List reports on the ICM/Guardian poll:
http://www.labourlist.org/only_14_think_labour_tells_the_truth_on_public_finances
Every time I pick up a newspaper, my heart sighs at the thought of what I am about to read - because I don’t always trust the government to tell the truth on my behalf either.
And if even he doesn’t, it’s amazing that 14% do!
77 - Tony’s other stuff wasn’t thrown out, it was shredded.
Here are my Seat predictions for the next GE.
NI= 18.Very confident about that.
OTHERS= 3.Not at all sure about this one.Help needed.
NATS= 23.Sorted !
LD= 41.I think that the Lib Dems will take a bashing from the boys in blue and that the clawback from the other Parties will be minimal.
CON= ???.Work in progress.
LAB= ??? Same.
The White House under George Bush was more like ‘The Office’ than ‘West Wing’, according to a top speechwriter for the former president.
Some of the things said by Mr Bush and his cohorts would make even David Brent blush.
In his candid book about the final days of the Bush presidency, speechwriter Matt Latimer reveals what his old boss really thought about Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Sarah Palin.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1215073/George-Bush-watched-news-Donald-Rumsfeld-wanted-edit-Wikipedia-page-says-speechwriter.html
77 - You reckon its a race thing, I’m sure you’ll find plenty of support on here.
Of course for consistency I presume Cameron whitewashed his Shadow Attorney General over his taxpayer funded Au Pair /Cleaner because he is white?
I don’t think Baronness Scotland has been prosecuted yet. She certainly hasn’t resigned.
81 - Who is in the others column?
Just read the post on PB2, amen to the sister, regardless of her motivation in wiritng the meeting clearly was rigged and the local party members treated like sh*t. The party should listen and learn.
85 tim. OTHERS include UKIP,GREENS,INDIES and any fringe Party but not the SNP or PC.
84 “She certainly hasn’t resigned” no, she’s a Labour minister. They don’t resign, they “listen and learn”.
83
No it’s not a race thing. It’s an elite, one law for them and another law for us thing. See also Cash for Laws (I ‘umbly apologise) and expenses (but the fees office said it was OK for me to defraud the taxpayer) for further examples.
88, Estelle Morris is a notable exception.
90- when did she resign?
91. Bob.
October 2002, on the grounds she wasn’t up to the job.
http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-93470486.html
87 -I’d put 0 in that column.
91 - 2002
92/94- they seem to be out of practice. It’s also unusually honest.
Again, I do have ask, what are the Lib Dems smoking?
The Tories will be branded “the party of crime” as the Liberal Democrats seek to burnish their own law and order credentials.
Lib Dem home affairs spokesman Chris Huhne will shift the focus of the party’s annual conference in Bournemouth onto crime when he makes his keynote speech.
http://www.teletext.co.uk/news/national/2cedeae51c8e843c26444ab11dd6c896/Lib+Dems+tackle+Tories+over+crime.aspx
87 - I can’t see Richard Taylor holding Wyre Forest. I believe the Lib Dems are putting up a candidate against him this time.
So that’s one current other, probably out of the house of commons.
I have no idea what George Galloway will do in Poplar and Limehouse, well I do, but I don’t want a visit from his lawyers.
On Topic
I would suspect hoax, the numbers are just too far out from the most recent polls with nothing equally dramatic to account for the move. I would love for it to be true, and the polls will probably move towards the ‘no’ side a bit since the ‘no’ side does not have the unlimited money of the ‘yes’ side and so will have to run a shorter, more intense, campaign as close to the date as possible.
93 tim.Thanks for that but you are nuts ! Last time there were two.Is that nice doctor standing down ? Respect, I concede will be struggling but they still have residual chances as do the Greens in Brighton .The BNP have residual chances and there could be instances of a sitting MP resigning and standing as an Independent.
“So, where are the votes going to come from to take Labour up to the low thirties?”
As discussed yesturday the one area that Labour might improve in is the inner cities ie where its electorally ineffective.
I also think that the revelations about debt and cuts will hit Labour hard among long term working class voters - people who have always lived within their means and believed that Brown was similarly ‘prudent’.
I believe Stuart Dickson has mentioned the ‘Brown epiphany’, I think that’s happening to many people right now.
87. What do you think of Respect’s chances of keeping their seat without Galloway?
99 URW.
Three. I guess Blaenau Gwent is the safest of the three current Other-held seats from what I know, though others may know more. I haven’t heard that Richard Taylor or Dai Davies is standing down - the odious Galloway, of course, is decamping.
75. If you frame a law then break it, you resign. Simples.
So don’t try using the race card on this.
101 Chris Strange.Roughly one chance in four but I would take anything better than 3-1 that Respect win a Seat somewhere.
81/85. Three ‘others’ looks about right to me if the Speaker is included (and he should be).
Richard Taylor is to stand again in Wyre Forest but is no shoo-in and the Conservatives will be looking to overturn his 5250 majority.
Blaenau Gwent will probably return their effective Independent Labour MP, despite ‘official’ Labour’s best efforts. Difficult to see the arguments that will allow them to regain the seat though.
As for the rest, the Greens might win one in Brighton, Galloway will almost certainly lose in Poplar and at the moment, there’s no-one else on the horizon.
For all Farage’s efforts, I can’t see him toppling Bercow in Buckingham (and in any case, it would be an ‘other’ either way).
Paddy Ashdown on Five Live: People are getting fed up with Labour, and can’t wait to get rid of them.
If only LD activists would listen and let their anti-Toryism drop…
It would be funny if after all those pompous journos and indignant celebrities generated so much hot air talking up the end of the two party system, we ended up with less independents in the house after the next the GE. I’d say it is very likely too, I can’t see the Greens, BNP or UKIP winning any seats and if the Lib Dems stand against him Richard Taylor will probably lose his seat back to the Tories. Of course that is unless Esther Rantzen is swept to power in Luton…
99 - I thought the Doctor was standing down?
Anyhow the Lib Dems who stood aside last time will put up a candidate.
This is a Doctor loss - Charterhouse/Fund Manager Tory gain.
Elsewhere.
Spink and Short are off to the homes for the bewildered.
The BNP Greens and UKIP won’t win a seat.
Galloway is still torn between wallet and ego as ever, Birmingham Hall Green is a basket case.
I’d go for 0, with a saver on 1.
@96: That might actually be a slight *improvement* over Sarah Teather yesterday suggesting that “the poor” were mindless automata that Labour knockers-up could “herd” to the polling station whether they wanted to vote for them or not.
If it was *just* Clegg, or Clegg and one or two others, you could understand it; but it seems to be the whole lot of them.
107, I do hope not. The smug, self-satisfied cretin-creature irritated me more than the Labour representative on QT when she was on.
Unusually I almost agree with Tim, I would bet on there being 2, Blaenau Gwent and the speaker
What do we think of Nick Griffin’s chances in Thurrock?
The BNP only got 5.8% last time in the seat, seems an odd place for him to stand
Am I missing something?
On topic, yes it could be a hoax. Whether it is or not, the figures are so far out of line with no obvious reason for the shift to suggest something strange.
Is the £100 wasted? Well, as URW says above, Mike could lay it off (though as it’s with a different firm, there are always risks in so doing, mainly around possibly different rules). Apart from that though, I don’t think it’s a particularly bad price: Irish opinion did swing late on last time and it doesn’t need to swing all the way to 41/59 as per the poll, just beyong 50/50 will make it a winner.
106
“If only LD activists would listen and let their anti-Toryism drop”
They can’t.
I opined that the Lib/Dems and Nu Labour are too close. They are ‘family’.
Nu Labour is the b@stard child of the SDP and the Lib/Dems have SDP dna running through them. They will not cleave to the Tories - in fact listening to the L/D activists, they sound like lefty Brownites (before the wheels came off Browns ambitions)
108 - No Tim, the good Doctor is standing again (he’s an ex colleague of my father) and the Lib Dems are contesting the seat for the first time since 1997
114, the notion in the link at 96 that voting for the Tories is voting for crime is almost reminiscent of Brown’s claim that an election would be chaos. This is why the Lib Dems can’t pass Labour. They hate the Tories too much, and it clouds their judgement.
The Speaker doesn’t count as an Other, AIUI. Because he was last elected as a Conservative before becoming Speaker, he counts as a Conservative and after the election will have one Conservative and two Labour Deputy Speakers (if the Conservatives are in government, I imagine one of the Labour Deputy Speakers could be replaced by a LD or other party in theory, but don’t expect it).
Thus because the Speaker and Deputies don’t affect the political balance between Government and other parties, they all count for seat totals in their own party.
71 URW - 3 days ago I suggested the following:
Applying the best odds from one or other bookie [VC or Ladbrokes] produces an equalised return of exactly 2/1 to cover between 30-49 LibDem seats and 1.59/1 to cover between 20-49 LibDem seats. Surely far better value than the odds of 0.95/1, net of Betfair’s 5% commission by selling the LibDems at 49 seats on their Party Seats Line, in fact it’s no contest.
…….unless anyone thinks the LibDems will win fewer than 20 seats!
103 -I wouldn’t disagree with that. You’ll find it was Marquee Mark and London Statto who were using the race card, not me.
Strange for those two, they seem to be spending too much time with the sub BNP propagandists on here.
I wonder if the Shadow Attourney General is able to make a statement given his history and Camerons whitewash of his exoense claims and the secrecy that Dave imposed on the detail.
119, btw tim, are you writing the Lib Dem speeches for their conference?
opinion polls in Ireland can often be confusing.
So can Paddy Power. The rates seem to vary according to where you are.
The evidence other than polls and betting - the defeatism of the YES campaign apart from Barroso, who is issuing threats, and the liveliness of the NO, seems to support the Libertas report of this latest poll being correct.
Mike, you’re in the money !!!
119.
“Using the race card”?
Is that the best you can do, WelcherBot? You need to go back in to have your sense of humour module checked.
121, it’d be bloody marvellous, but I still can’t see a Yes.
113 David Herdson. Many thanks.I hadn’t included Mr.Speaker in my calculations.
My mind works very differently from tim’s.He says “BNP,GREENS and UKIP won’t win a Seat” and presumably adds Respect to that list.
I just add up the notional chances and they add up to One Seat on my calculator.
Regarding the notorious ramp and back on topic…I thought at first that it was a world-class piece of engineering but looking at BF, I note that very little action occurred above 1.30 although 1.45 was brushed. 1.22 is still available for YES but is disappearing fast.
Paddy Power offers 4-1 on the NO option.
104. Thank you, I’ll keep that in mind the next time my betting budget has filled up again (hopefully later this week). Though I might just go for a Conservative majority at 1.39 simply because the risks are so low.
106. Perhaps they are gunning for those areas in the north that are very anti-Tory and so looking for the anti-tory party, but would now want one which isn’t Labour? The Lib-Dems need something to make up for their losses in the south.
120 - No, The Lib Dems would reject Tim’s speeches as just being too much anti-tory.
125. chris strange: The Lib-Dems need something to make up for their losses in the south.
The problem with that strategy is that there are significantly fewer Lab-LD marginals in the north than there are C-LD marginals in the south.
126, really? Captain Trouserpress is apparently going to call Hague a skinhead today. He’s in danger of making hysteria his default setting.
There was a great and rather silly segment on ‘Today’ between Chris Huhne and Eric Pickles.
It was symptomatic of the Political Bettification of British politics.
128 - Let’s face it, Hague has been called worse on here by some posters
I’m looking forward to seeing Chris Huhne calling William Hague a skinhead, purely so i can enjoy William Hague’s response.
129, any details?
120 - No, but the IHT policy and the Tories Euro dalliances were always going to play for the Lib Dems.
132, the Lib Dems are doing Labour a big favour. Not only attacking the Tories in a childish way, but having such a rubbishy conference the Labour one will look good by comparison
***** Betting Post *****
For those who believe the Greens have a good chance of winning Brighton Pavilion (I don’t btw!), Victor Chandler currently has stand-out odds of 3.3/1, compared with just 2/1 from Ladbrokes and Paddy Power.
Voters will have say on Cowen ‘within 12 months’
… Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny yesterday claimed that growing anger among voters would spark a general election within the next 12 months.
But he urged people not to take their anger out on the Government by voting ‘No’ to the Lisbon Treaty.
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/voters-will-have-say-on-cowen-within-12-months-1892660.html
118 Peter from Putney.
I took great note of that post of yours and we come to identical conclusions regarding the 85 Seats not won by the Big2.
If you go along with the assumption that between them, Labour and the Conservatives will win 565 Seats this is a great help when betting the Seat bands.
I also note that my suggestion of 275-299 LAB Seats has shortened from 25s to 20s and tim’s (more scientific) suggestion of 250-274 has shortened from 16s to 14s.
My offer of the Lib Dems is now 48.0 and contacting by the day !
I hope Huhne points out, that Gordon Brown once fought a general election on a promise to withdraw Britain from the EU.
Does that make Brown a skinhead?
Actually so did Blair, Straw, Harman…
‘Churches give advice on Lisbon’
http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0922/eulisbon.html
‘Large majority of farmers to support Lisbon’
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/breaking-news/ireland/large-majority-of-farmers-to-support-lisbon-14503654.html
126 I’m not so sure. Sarah Montague interviewed Chris Huhne just before 8 AM on Today, and he rattled off most of TIM’s favourite attack lines in a head to head with Eric Pickles. A full bingo card’s worth from Tory Toffs to Waffen SS. I wondered briefly as to whether PB’s wagerly challenged attack drone is really a Lib Dem sleeper.
I couldn’t see the member for Eastleighs trousers but I’m sure they were very crisply pressed.
140 - Well Coldstone recently outed himself as a Lib Dem, so anything is possible.
132. Yes because the Lib Dems swept up all them voters at the Euro election who hated the Tories Eurosceptic position.
On others wins.
UKIP have Bob Spink in Castle Point and Farage standing against the Speaker. I would say that Farage has a better chance than Spink, but neither are very likely.
Greens best hopes are Brighton P and Norwich S. Looking at locals, I think they will come second in both, but have an outsidish chance in both.
Dai Davis will hold Blaenau Gwent easily. So there’s one.
Dr Taylor in Wyre Forest is 50/50 against the tories.
Respect are a bunch of jokers, but as the recent by-election in Birmingham showed, when Respect and Labour contest, dodgy postal votes appear. So who knows. Not very likely.
Esther Rantzen -
So definetly one, possibly as many as five. My money would be on one.
140
I saw C Huhne’s interview.
Somehow I don’t think it will resonate with voters.
I think LibDem leaders inhabit a parallel universe.
142 - The Euro’s dont count, only the odd council seat by election can be judged as an accurate predictor of the general election.
143 denmark.Great and informative post.Best in show !
62 Antifrank - I don’t think Polly has grasped how devestating this proposal would be for Labour at this time, nor has she understood the damage this proposal could do to the PR cause. The basic principles/issues surely are:
* Such a fundamental change to our voting system deserves to be considered on its merits and voted on by the public without the distraction of a general election
* The issue should not be party political - politicians should be free to advocate the system of their preference (which will be impossible in an election context)
* Five months is probably not long enough to educate the public on the issues without a very concerted Government effort, which in the context of the current economic and political environment would look like a very strange allocation of priorities
* Labour’s support for PR is more likely to harm the latter than bolster the former - very few votes will be won out of gratitude
* Notwithstanding the public vote, this does look like gerrymandering (or at least an attempt, however democratically, to hinder the next Government)
* Can Labour answer the charge that PR will make the BNP more powerful?
* Can Labour answer the question “why now?” - imagine what Paxman or Neill would do to any Labour MP who tried to defend the timing of this after ten years of missed opportunity
Incidentally, I note that Polly implicitly endorses Rod’s swingback theory in order to claim that Cameron will be elected on the lowest share of the vote since the war.
I would love to see PR debated by the great politicians of the age (don’t laugh at the back). But not now and not in this context.
If this becomes a live election issue Cameron’s reponse should be straight forward: (i) its desperate stuff from Labour; (ii) we disagree in principle with holding the vote on the same day as the general election; (iii) we are committed to reform of the electoral and parliamentary systems; (iv) we will undertake a cross-party review on PR early in the next parliament if we win.
Poll shows a massive swing back to the tories in scotland and dickinson thinks a tory victory will lead to a vote for independence ??
New thread: “Are the Lib Dem trying to “piss into the wind”?
148, Mr. Dickson is most consistent. He thinks everything will lead to a vote for independence
128. It’s interesting that he chooses to make this attack. It really shows how totally in thrall to the EU the Lib Dems are, arguably more of a front organisation than a real party.
Blaenau Gwent looks likely,so 1.
140 - Not surpising , as they are all true.
And even funnier, Vaclav Klaus going to take flak at home for his association with the Polish Extermists that Willie Hague loves
116
Yep.
The portrayal of the Conservatives as somehow ‘in league’ with criminals is a short step from portraying the Conservatives AS criminal (of course what happened was that NuLabour under the guidance of Brown has promulgated the view of Tories as evil and the ‘party of the criminal’ is a rationalisation) .
144: Lib Dems generally. In there own little bubble world they seem to think they are both Liberal and Democratic.
62. What Polly Toynbee should also note, especially if she reads Tom Harris’ blog, is that the bill is unlikely to ever to pass the Commons anyway for the simple reason that too many Labour MPs would oppose it.
http://www.tomharris.org.uk/2009/09/14/electoral-reform-should-be-no-ones-priority/
143 asod - Yes, a very good summary, one to keep in the notepad as the election approaches.
155 PfP.
Two points.I just did put denmark’s post into the notepad.I would KILL to Buy Others on a Spread at say 2.25 because ‘fings ‘appen’.
Second point: Your suggestion of 10-3 the Greens in BP is copper-bottomed and a maximum bet; a super maximum bet if you intend to hedge on BF at a later date.
‘Tory win could pull UK apart – Lib Dems’
The Lib Dems’ Scottish affairs spokesman, Orkney and Shetland MP Alistair Carmichael, said: “Vince is right to highlight the dangers that could be posed by having a Scottish Nationalist government in Edinburgh while we have a Conservative government which was effectively an English nationalist government in Westminster.
“I hope that the Conservatives, who used to be a Unionist party, will wake up to the risks of some of their rhetoric.”
http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/1407011/?UserKey=
I had posted on the site last week about my observations as a Yes canvasser in the Lisbon referendum. With just over a week to go I haven’t seen anything that has changed my view, in fact if anything I think the Yes vote could now be over 65%. The Yes side have been much more focused this time and have been far cleverer in their media presentation. The non party “Yes for Europe” group held a succesful rally last night with most of the Irish grand salm rugby team in attendance. In contrast the No side have appeared bad tempered and unable to articulate a clear message. As I mentioned last week the intervention of somebody called Nigel Farage has not done the No side any favours. Regarding the “Gael poll”, I have never heard of them and assume it is a fake. There is one poll out today by Red C for the Farmers Journal and it shows a massive swing to the Yes side. It was estimated after the last referendum that farmers had voted against the Treaty in large numbers, in many cases due to concerns over the world trade talks.
http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/large-majority-of-farmers-to-support-lisbon-427239.html
The Irish Times will have a poll in Friday’s edition. Their pollster TNS MRBI have a good record in referenda, I hope to hear the details of the poll around 8.00 on Thursday though Paddy Power have been taking down betting on the referendum in advance of polls recently. There will be one more poll in the Sunday Business Post at the weekend.