How valid is the quickie PBR poll in the Times?
December 11th, 2009
Politicalbetting.com - Thursday evening after the 2008 budget
Is instant polling reaction a guide to anything?
Every Friday after budgets, and now the PBR, the Times publishes the findings of a quickie small sample non-voting intention Populus poll and invariably this is good for the government.
But how seriously should we take it? Shouldn’t we look at the record.
I raised this one last March and I raise it again. The above is from the post published here about a Populus poll for the Times on the Thursday evening after Darling’s first budget in March 2008.
Like today’s survey the 2008 poll was broadly supportive yet within only a few days Labour started its dramatic polling decline leading to the awful summer of 2008. That collapse was sparked off by the budget’s failure to deal with the losers from the abolition of the 10 pence tax rate.
So what turned out to be the most disastrous budget in political terms during Labour’s twelve years of power was given the thumbs-up in the Times mini-poll immediately afterwards. Something’s wrong somewhere.
This morning we have a similar survey in the paper which shows, on the 2008 model, broad support for the proposals - but how will this look in a few days?
For the challenge is that in the immediate aftermath of such announcements the news agenda is about explaining what’s happening and not subjecting the strategy to detailed scrutiny.
I contend, that we have no real idea how the public will react. It might be more positive for the government or it might be a whole lot less positive.
Let us wait until we have a more considered response and see how that works out in the voting intention numbers. We have at least two of the big national surveys going into fieldwork today.
A little reminder to Populus. The detailed data on your December voting intention poll does not appear to be on your site yet. It was published on Monday evening - it is now Friday.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
“A little reminder to Populus. The detailed data on your December voting intention poll does not appear to be on your site yet. It was published on Monday evening - it is now Friday.”
Not untypical, though - it always seems to take them days and days. I see the Times have even stopped bothering with the “more details are available on the Populus website” line, because it’s never true!
First
gay
Hopefully another ICM and YouGov to come. This is a good instant reaction for the govt. A Bash the Banker moment, but like all of the budgets these days it takes a while to digest. Even Dianne Abbott struggled on the PBR tonight.
I would have thought that if Darling had gone worst case scenario or looking like that they may have done better. Honesty is a better headline than dripping out the bad news on the following days…
BTW Congratulations James on winning this thread’s PB.com first place handicap.
A little reminder to Populus….!
The devil is in the detail. They are not paid to reveal that.
The narrative requires an 8% gap. The narrative always gets what it orders one way or another whether it be Populus, ICM or MORI. Only Angus Read is not in the ’system’.
17% is consistently the AR figure and that’s before the coming financial collapse kicks in.
At the moment the narrative is a Labour victory (Times) whereby a current 8% Conservative lead can be overturned by polling day.
The previous Hung Parliament Narrative (6% Ipsos MORI) tired, so it was replaced with an attempted Labour Victory Narrative. That has not got off the ground surprisingly, but the pollsters are playing their role nonetheless, as we are used to seeing now.
The final job of rigging actual elections cannot be done successfully without expectations managed into place first. 2005 was the first rigged election. 2010 is going to be attempted you can bet your life.
NURSE, NURSE
Head teachers from state and independent schools have joined forces to attack new safety laws that could jeopardise language exchange trips and work experience placements.
All the head teachers’ associations have written to Ed Balls, the Schools Secretary, asking for a meeting to discuss their concerns about the Vetting and Barring Scheme….
The heads say that the legislation is excessive, disproportionate and will do nothing to protect children.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/education/school_league_tables/article6952189.ece
Evening/morning campers. Something we ought to steal from the USA are large, representative focus groups watching important speeches like the PBR, or PMQs, with an approval/disapproval dial.
It’d be nice to have some other data to chew over.
8 - With internet technology and the polling companies obvious large databases you would think somebody would be doing it over the web, either as instant real time reaction or asking them to do it later that day.
I seem to remember Guido and a few others linked together and had some online technology that they tried out a few times that did that. Played the video and you could than turn the dial, and then when the data had been collated you could see the results.
9 (cont) Guido and co did it for a few PMQ’s.
10 - wasn’t that the mind-tracker ?
11.Krisin, have replied. Nite all.
Oops, Kristin.
Could it be that it takes the Great British Public a few days to absorb the budget, including this mini one or whatever it is?
The British budget is as great an institution in its own way as the British breakfast. And no more toxic!
The great thing about it, it that it’s truly a national event, something that millions of citizens with little apptitude, taste or stomach for politics can wrap their heads - and pocketbooks - around.
It was Gladstone who invented all the showmanship of the battered red box, etc, etc, which turned out to be one of this strokes of political genius. And not just then but unto the present hour.
Britania no longer rules the waves. She’s doing something better: showing the way.
I loved the way Diane Abbott described the PBR as one of Gordon’s things, so he could announce everything twice.
So was this the budget itself? I thought that was in the spring.
16 - no Andy it’s the pre-budget report. In the main, it contains the same stuff but the budget proper puts some meat on the bones. ( by that I mean more small print )
does PBR mean
1. Pre-Budget Review
2. Poor Buggered Ratepayers
3. Payments Being Rendered
4. Pundits Befuddle Readers
5. Politicos Baffle Reason
6. Poor Bewail Reaming
7. Plutocrats Bellow Ridiculously
globule
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/The-Papers—National-Newspaper-Front-Pages-On-Friday-December-11-2009/Media-Gallery/200912215497821?lpos=UK_News_News_in_Picture_UK_News_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15497821_The_Papers_-_National_Newspaper_Front_Pages_On_Friday_December_11%2C_2009
ectoplasm
John, love yer poetry! As per usual.
20. Poetry? What poetry? That wasn’t a poem; it was two of my favourite words, being used to make a sandwich of the newspapers. If you want a poem (for example, to celebrate the joyous news that the brilliant foresight of Our Supreme Helmsman Alistair Darling is going to rescue us from the threat of dreaded Tory savage cuts), here is one:
Poem
Ob glob splob spob spom,
Spim lim lib glib glim;
Ib glib splib spib spim;
Spom lom lob glob glom.
Jeff Randall on the PBR
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeffrandall/6782436/Pre-Budget-report-the-Treasury-wont-tell-us-the-true-cost-of-this-debt-disaster.html
3-You’ll be arrested!
Though notice it’s not one of the crimes Simon Jenkins thinks should not lead to custodial sentences.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/dec/10/conrad-black-labour-law-crime
- “The detailed data on your December voting intention poll does not appear to be on your site yet. It was published on Monday evening - it is now Friday.”
I’ve said it before, but if Populus cannot comply with the British Polling Council’s 2-working-days Disclosure rule then they ought to be kicked out of the BPC. Cooper was really bitchy when Angus Reid entered the UK polling market, and went on about how he was a founding member of the BPC.. Who cares? You cannot slag off your commercial rivals one minute and then behave in an unprofessional, underhand fashion the next.
Either buck-up Populus, or do the honourable thing and simply leave the BPC. You do not deserve the badge.
OT Doctors’ surgeries near railway stations turns out to be a government scheme that has not worked, though at least this was a pilot programme.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8396443.stm
It has never been clear just what the government has against the GP system which mostly works, already has competition between GPs, and which is broadly popular with patients (aka voters).
1. James - “… it always seems to take them days and days…”
A couple of months ago it was about TEN DAYS before the findings were up on the Populus website. Andrew Cooper was on a PB.com thread slagging off Angus Reid, so I pointed out his breach of the BPC Disclosure Rules (for the umpteenth time). He got very shirty and claimed it was an oversight.
Well, truly professional firms do not make such public oversights. That is indeed the whole point of quality control. It makes one wonder what kind of state their internal management functions are in. Their marketing guy must pull his hair out as the thicko boffins taint the brand with their (ahem) fogetfulness.
23 Too many crimes (Peter2′ and Simon Jenkins in the Guardian)
Too many lawyers in government imo. Faced with any social problem, their instinct is to legislate.
Look at who is on the “Management Committee” (sic) of the BPC:
http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers.html
We’re watching this space Mr Cooper:
http://www.populus.co.uk/politics-category.html
Will you manage to remember before 5 o’clock this afternoon?
F5 at the ready…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8407318.stm
Hilarious. Seems like our suggestion that the Kirkcaldy call came were true.
Anyone surprised?
Anyone?
Baroness Ashton in rush to form EU foreign office ‘before Tory Government’
With a Conservative Government the favourite to take power in Britain next year, Baroness Ashton of Upholland is racing against time to establish a pan-European diplomatic service before David Cameron can clip its wings.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article6952426.ece
Looks like a few more votes for UKIP.
While we are discussing voting intention polling, I’d just like to say how weak it is that nearly all UK pollsters use sample sizes of just 1000 (YouGov usually 2000). This makes a lot of the cross-tabs pretty weak statistically (although some are useful-ish).
The Swedish v.i. poll published yesterday (off the top of my head the opposition Red-Green coalition on 50%, governing Centre-Right coalition 43%, and the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats well over the 4% parliamentary threshold) had a sample size of well over 6000!!
It is not uncommon for Swedish polls to have sample size of 3000. This mean that changes in public opinion can be very accurately stated within the 95% confidence range. And Swedish poll findings are routinely reported to one decimal place.
Sweden’s population is 9 million.
Why do we put up with 1000 sample sizes?
Rollingstone : Obama’s Big Sellout
“The president has packed his economic team with Wall Street insiders intent on turning the bailout into an all-out giveaway”
‘Just look at the timeline of the Citigroup deal,” says one leading Democratic consultant. “Just look at it. It’s fucking amazing. Amazing! And nobody said a thing about it.”
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/31234647/obamas_big_sellout/print
Who’s surprised?
Rollingstone : Obama’s Big Sellout
“The president has packed his economic team with Wall Street insiders intent on turning the bailout into an all-out giveaway”
‘Just look at the timeline of the Citigroup deal,” says one leading Democratic consultant. “Just look at it. It’s f*cking amazing. Amazing! And nobody said a thing about it.”
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/31234647/obamas_big_sellout/print
Who’s surprised?
31 - ARS is also circa 2000, but I agree larger samples would be a much better indication of movement on the splits. As to why, cost most likely. How frequent are the Swedish polls taken ?
‘Jack Straw accused of cover-up after veto on publication of devolution debates’
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/scotland/Jack-Straw-accused-of-coverup.5903407.jp
Now that is one CLASSIC Gordon Brown photo from 1997!
As Treasury secretary under Clinton, [Bob] Rubin was the driving force behind two monstrous deregulatory actions that would be primary causes of last year’s financial crisis: the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act (passed specifically to legalize the Citigroup megamerger) and the deregulation of the derivatives market. Having set that time bomb, Rubin left government to join Citi, which promptly expressed its gratitude by giving him $126 million in compensation over the next eight years (they don’t call it bribery in this country when they give you the money post factum). After urging management to amp up its risky investments in toxic vehicles, a strategy that very nearly destroyed the company, Rubin blamed Citi’s board for his screw-ups and complained that he had been underpaid to boot. “I bet there’s not a single year where I couldn’t have gone somewhere else and made more,” he said.
Despite being perhaps more responsible for last year’s crash than any other single living person — his colossally stupid decisions at both the highest levels of government and the management of a private financial superpower make him unique — Rubin was the man Barack Obama chose to build his White House around.
There are four main ways to be connected to Bob Rubin: through Goldman Sachs, the Clinton administration, Citigroup and, finally, the Hamilton Project, a think tank Rubin spearheaded under the auspices of the Brookings Institute to promote his philosophy of balanced budgets, free trade and financial deregulation. The team Obama put in place to run his economic policy after his inauguration was dominated by people who boasted connections to at least one of these four institutions — so much so that the White House now looks like a backstage party for an episode of Bob Rubin, This Is Your Life!
29 Gordon Brown intervened on cutting deficit (David Roe)
Well, Brown has convinced at least one voter. The Sun’s sister paper, The Wall Street Journal, reported a couple of days ago:
Cameron Aims to Take on the Deficit
Leader of Conservative opposition also warns that cutting spending too abruptly could jeopardize economic recovery
34. Kristin
At least 2 or 3 per month (more nearer elections).
I’d personally prefer fewer polls, but of a higher reliability!
Nice spot, John.
Right, off to Paris for the weekend. See you all next week.
37 - Thanks Stuart. I’d agree with that.
25. The NHS centres near railway stations thing buzzed about the NHS as an idea for ages before Labour implemented it. Theory was that men, “somewhat off-colour” commuters, and probably the worried well, would go to see a doctor near their place of work, since it is frequently difficult to get an appointment before 9 or after 6 in the suburbs, when commuters have hour or more commutes.
The failure of the experiment highlights a mistake that both Tory and Labour governments have made with the NHS; implementing a policy nation-wide based on an idea, and not trialling it somewhere. As one who spent his working life in and around the NHS I would say that the one thing the NHS needs is stability, and not further attempts to somehow shuffle the pack, management-wise. Waste in the NHS, in my experience, arise not so much from too many managers as repeatedly shuffling them about.
Off topic I know!
35 repeal of Glass-Steagall and how Democrats ruined everything
Glass-Steagall (which in the United States separated retail banking from investment banking, or Main Street from Wall Street) was repealed by Republicans, or so says the FOAK:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glass%E2%80%93Steagall_Act
In any event, in Britain we never had equivalent legislation.
As to whether President Obama is too close to Wall Street: yes.
Someone tell Populus to ask questions somewhere else, than just Gasgow !
36,38 David Cameron in Wall Street Journal
Oops, forgot the link:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126027052145381649.html
Gordon interferes…..again
“The Treasury wanted tougher action in the pre-Budget report to tackle the UK deficit but was overruled by the prime minister, the BBC has learned.
Officially the Treasury says Chancellor Alistair Darling devised the plans, but the BBC understands he wanted to go further on tackling the £178bn deficit. ”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8407318.stm
The time has come to reconcile ourselves to a Conservative government. The game is well and truly up.
We Labour supporters must hope it wont be as wretched as the Major one or as hateful as Thatcher’s and with Cameron in charge I don’t think it will be.
And anyway can any of us still remember which part of this labour government we once identified with?
In the words of Edward Murrow ‘Good night and good luck’
Tim and gordon are going to be gutted
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1234691/Climate-Change-Secretary-bought-bottled-water-office–claimed-expenses.html
“Labour’s class war explodes in its face: Expenses claims show Party’s MPs milked the system to live like lords”
Remember when Labour could claim to represent the working class?
46.
We hear you Roger!
But don’t be a stranger. PB.com needs commenters like you. At least you are a character, amid (let’s admit it) a heck of a lot of ME2 posters.
Oh dear Jaqui…..
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1234917/Porn-new-telly-watch-Fresh-details-Jacqui-Smiths-notorious-expenses-claims.html
Jacqui Smith’s notorious expenses claim for pornographic films was submitted and paid on three separate occasions
Miss Smith also claimed £555.74 for a 32in Panasonic TV and £244.90 for a DVD player. She had previously claimed for two other 32in televisions in 2005 and 2006.
Now, that really is taking the proverbial p*ss
“The only beneficiaries from the PBR’s small giveaways are: single mothers who are unemployed and non earner couples with children. “
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/edmundconway/100002631/pre-budget-report-the-ifss-verdict/
Here is that Swedish poll (report in English for you non-linguists). I was wrong, the sample size was actually 9,000!!!
‘Sweden Democrats score five percent in major poll’
http://www.thelocal.se/23764/20091210/
By the way, another story caught my eye: it is not often that a major European city (about Edinburgh-sized) changes its name!
‘Göteborg changes name back to Gothenburg’
http://www.thelocal.se/23786/20091211/
40 - To be fair, it might be worth reading the report!
“NHS walk-in centres near railway stations are not popular with commuters and are a waste of money, say University of Sheffield researchers.
A five-year pilot programme of six centres near stations in London, Newcastle, Manchester and Leeds was set up in 2004 as part of a £50m programme.”
IMO the problem is simple - Labour not realising there were limits on public money. For a long time they have had the attitude that if something could be useful, then it is worth spending money on, without any particular need for genuine cost-benefit analyses. A prime example often seen on here is Nick Palmer’s views on ID cards - basically that they are pretty useless when set against many of the exaggerated claims made of them, but that they are “useful”. Impossible to argue against (other than a principled ‘civil liberties’ stance, obviously) since the cost of the scheme is never engaged with.
48 - as someone who has actually been out of pocket on reimbursement of expenses by an employer, it’s the sense of entitlement this lot have that get me. I mean who in their right mind would expect an employer to reimburse them for painting summer houses, garlic presses, black goods etc ? I mean who ? I once made the mistake of putting lunch for 6 colleagues on my credit card, just pastas and pizzas and then once submitted they only allowed £6 a head, that was for Milton Keynes. I worked for a bank at the time, oh the irony.
Ouch , ouch and ouch again
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/budget/6781890/Severe-cuts-in-public-services-revealed.html
“But the real cuts, starting in 2011, could be as high as 19.2 per cent, the IFS said, predicting “a severe squeeze on public services”. Areas affected will include defence, higher education, transport and housing.
Through tax rises and spending cuts, Mr Darling says he will bring Labour’s record borrowing under control by 2017/18
The IFS, however, said that the Government will as a result have to find an extra £76 billion over the next eight years - the equivalent of £2,400 for every family in Britain.
The squeeze was so tight, said the IFS, it could mean that all of Labour’s increase in public spending since it came to power in 1997 would have unwound by 2018.”
Well done Labour, who would have thought you could have forced Britain to its knees so completely.
45 - what’s driven you over the edge? Sounds as if the PBR has hit you personally somewhere for no good reason. Have they sneaked in some pointless tax on the advertising industry?
48 Perhaps Jacqui’s hubby needed the 32″ TV screen because his eyesight was failing after all that [this post has been self-censored]
51 - it wouldn’t surprise me at all if commuters didn’t know about them.
53 “The squeeze was so tight, said the IFS, it could mean that all of Labour’s increase in public spending since it came to power in 1997 would have unwound by 2018.”
Labour, there was a reason why Tory public spending was at the level it was at in the eighties and nineties. It was because THE COUNTRY COULDN’T AFFORD ANY MORE.
Tw@ts.
53 - The whole “protect certain areas of frontline spending” argument is ridiculous. By all means protect “the services that are offered”, but by protecting the overall budgets it removes the possibility the exploiting of genuine budgetary efficiency savings. When the frontline areas being protected are by far the largest areas of Govt spending the whole thing is ridiculous.
54. Quentin Davis. Labour are a party without values. It was his interchangeability that finally hammered the message home.
Roger,
Can we still call on you for your Oscar predictions?
61; I wouldn’t worry too much Roger, you’ve have changed your mind by next week,
61 - Ah yes of course! Not a great signing that one!
Further to 35.
I didn’t notice before but the Scotman provides a fascinating list of the heroes and villains of Labour’s internal devolution battles in the 1990s. I have highlighted the 3 people who are still members of the current UK Cabinet.
56 re commuters not using exciting, new, free market doctors (Kristin)
It might be that commuters were blissfully ignorant but surely a more likely explanation is that ill people don’t commute and well commuters don’t need to see the doctor.
There is a class of people who need more than one GP in different places: Members of Parliament. The rest of us manage all right.
Possible new points system for F1, but at least it isn’t the mad medal system Ecclestone previously favoured.
http://www.formula1.com/news/headlines/2009/12/10279.html
“Under the new system, the race winner will take 25 points, with 20 and 15 being awarded for second and third places respectively. The next seven finishers will score 10, 8, 6, 5, 3, 2 and 1 point respectively.”
Essentially adds two points paying spots.
Presently points are given (from 1st to 8th) as follows:
10, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
This will put a premium on getting on the podium. Under the 2009 system two 4ths are equal to one 1st. But under this you’d need two and a half 4ths to equal a 1st. In addition, a 4th place in 2009 was just 1 point behind a 3rd, but now is 5 points behind a third.
A 2009 second was equal to two 5ths, but in 2010 will be 4 points ahead.
How will this affect racing? Not too much, I suspect. The main loser could be Vettel. He needs to sort out his reliability. The mechanical side is down to Red Bull, but he needs to axe his own little mistakes.
Gordon Brown - doing the right thing once again.
When this man hits the bottom of the barrel, he just keeps digging.. from that BBC report on Darling wanting to do more to cut the deficit.
“But, with an election just months away, it was overruled by Gordon Brown and his close political ally [Schools Secretary] Ed Balls, who in September spoke of wanting to see a real-terms increase in the schools budget.”
64 Quentin Davis does seem to have scored a hat-trick of own-goals.
Labour should give him a free-transfer to UKIP…
62. Of course. I’m still going to post I just no longer care who wins the election.
66 - aye well, there is that.
68 The PBR did have the smell of Balls all over it…
‘MPs’ expenses: Cabinet facing fresh questions over latest claims’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/6781356/MPs-expenses-Cabinet-facing-fresh-questions-over-latest–claims.html
Would have thought it pretty simple to understand that if people think they’re well enough to commute they’re well enough to go to work. Most people will just dose themselves up on whatever and suffer through it.
On our Quentin’s Bell-tower which is now right up there with Vigger’s duck-house…
We know that the latter is now standing down - I can’t remember how quickly to be honest that he said he’d stand down at the next election but I think it was pretty soon after the revelation?
Any suggestion the same will happen to QD?
‘Airmiles Eric’ Joyce has expenses frozen
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/scotland/39Airmiles-Eric39-Joyce–has.5903413.jp
Davis was quite a hard line right-winger when He was a Tory spokesman on Northern Ireland (yes I know but there was n’t a lot to to chose from.) Not a credible figure at all.
70 - Hey Roger, I agree with your sentiment, but the Tory Govt will be so full of Quentin Davies types and their offspring (you can tell the difference, the younger ones have tiny silver spoons).
What you really want is a Hung Parliament which removes safe seats, the real cause of the cancer.
Scotland’s most expensive MPs:
Michael Connarty (Lab) Linlithgow and E Falkirk £24,006
Jim McGovern (Lab) Dundee West £24,006
Mohammed Sarwar (Lab) Glasgow Central £24,006
Jim Sheridan (Lab) Paisley and Renfrewshire North £24,006
NOTE: WHY ARE THEY ALL CLAIMING EXACTLY THE SAME SUM?!? Very odd!
Scotland’s least expensive MPs (excluding those involved in by-elections -> have not served full parliament):
Alex Salmond (SNP) Banff and Buchan £588.94
Gordon Brown (Lab) Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath £9,492.05
Gavin Strang (Lab) Edinburgh East £9,521.01
Douglas Alexander (Lab) Paisley and Renfrewshire South £10,262
Alistair Darling (Lab) Edinburgh South West £10,626.48
Gavin Strang (Lab) Edinburgh East £9,521.01
76 - funny that, Jim Devine also claims for buildings insurance. He’s a bit cr@p at the porkies.
59.
You can’t say things like that - it’s true ! Lol
By the way, stopped watching QT at about 11. Not a damned question on the PBR up to that point. Was there one later? Ridiculous.
Also, if the new F1 points system comes in I’ll probably do a pb2 post on it.
Interesting electoral map here:
http://strangemaps.wordpress.com/2009/12/10/427-the-politics-of-the-st%c3%b8d/
Any ideas for an English equivalent? Danelaw? Civil War divisions? Pronuciation of ‘duck’?
79.I wouldn’t call Alex Salmond inexpensive, the taxpayer is paying him twice at the moment. And he shouldn’t be incurring too many expenses as an MP in London when he is hardly ever there. Doesn’t he get a nice grace and favour residence in Edinburgh?
The Daily Record highlights several Labour MPs’ expenses, and holds up an SNP minister as a good example! Pretty odd for the Record.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics-news/2009/12/11/mps-in-new-expenses-shame-minister-tried-to-claim-20k-to-rebuild-home-s-bell-tower-86908-21888456/
SNP hits at £814m budget cut as Scots oil ‘keeps UK afloat’
- Treasury spokesman says energy revenues helped provide £2.3bn surplus north of border
http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/1521080?UserKey=#ixzz0ZMk7G8i8
On topic - no, they’re not worth much. Public opinion reacts to the sources of information they have. By the evening of the PBR or Budget, that information is based on little more than the government’s spin plus opposition soundbites (although sometimes they can unravel within hours rather than days).
Once the weekend papers have had chance to digest the documents fully, a different narrative can emerge and often does. I wouldn’t trust any poll on the popularity of the PBR before the middle of next week.
78. There are downsides…..I don’t want to watch Willian Hague strutting the world with Fffffion and have to listen to THAT voice or to watch Osborne smirk after his first budget or see the BBC broken up and Fox News get a slot
….or watch the government bow at the court of King Rupert or see fox hunting re introduced or see our European neighbours insulted or have Orangemen in the cabinet…..
……but otherwise what the Hell!
“or watch the government bow at the court of King Rupert ”
The current government did that for the past 12 years.
78 tim, more rubbish. Looking across the government benches, Labour are very clearly a party of privilege and wealth; the Blairs, Browns and Mandelsons, enriched at our expense with £22K watches and property portfolios. Plenty of silver spoons for their offspring.
87. Roger - “… Orangemen in the cabinet… “
Which ones?
http://img.thesun.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00718/SNN2705AX_380_718991a.jpg
Roger. It is now something of a fait accompli that Gordon will get it in the neck, consigned to a dark and terrible corner of our history books – a ‘how not to’ lesson in leadership, arrogance and incompetence - and that Dave will inherit the biggest mess in British political history.
It could be worse – alot worse. Imagine what our future would look like if Labour somehow won! L
If it’s any consolation I expect Dave to be fairly wet in power and that the spending will only get addressed in a manner considered ‘severe’ by political and civil service types. A business would say ‘we are 180 billion short of being able to pay for spending from tax revenues and look for 180 billion of costs to cut’ – and then deliver this for fear of going out of business.
FWIW I think there is clearly going to be political pain for Dave in the next parliament, so he might as well get about the challenge in a big way from the outset while the public will and desire for change is still there and go Canadian / Irish / Swedish in his approach. How about public sector pay cuts of 15% all round, pension age up to 68, end final salary pensions for all new staff, all Quangos disbanaded and reabsorbed into ministries, ID cards out, slash overseas aid, cap all council taxes – and cut some business / employment taxes. That’d be a sound beginning to what this country now needs to do to itself.
Kind of on topic, given that the result of the Supertax may impact voter’s views on the sucess, or otherwise, of the PBR.
The view on the Bonus Supertax from here (a large bank) is that it will have to be paid. Essentially they have made avoidance illegal and attempts to get around it have failed.
I have to start messaging today that the tax is likely to be paid in one form or other. The only question is how much do other bits of the bank pay.
My guess is that this will raise substantially more than the £550m they predicted, say £1-1.5bn. Depending on when it becomes apparent that this is the case (I guess Feb-March) this could be good news for Labour (or bad news if the media narrative will be that the tax wasn’t the disincentive they claimed it would be).
The real net amount raised will be somewhat lower than that, of course, because there will be less tax and NI.
Of course I don’t expect any sympathy here, but I definitely believe that this political gesture will be damaging to recovery. But as long as it makes people feel better.
The PBR has totally unravelled in 48 hrs.
It was obvious from Darlings interview on yesterdays Today programme that he didnt believe in what he had delivered.Also Balls car crash interview on R5 live on Tuesday night when he was so aggressive towards the interviewer accusing him of bias.
The govt are now heading off a cliff fast and whereas up to this point i have been advocating buying Labour on the spreads up to 225 i am now a seller and think they could sink to 170.
The PBR was a game changer but for all the wrong reasons for Labour.
Risk reward is also in buying LD seats in the mid 50s
#84 ChristinaD
“I wouldn’t call Alex Salmond inexpensive, the taxpayer is paying him twice at the moment.”
I am sure that you know that Alex Salmond gives his MSP salary to charity so why your spin that does not mention this?
90. Stuart. (A young) David Trimble
http://www.tracygreen.com/images/orangemen.jpg
94 - That’s very nice of him, but it doesn’t actually change the fact that the taxpayer is paying him twice.
90. Peter Hain?
GP surgeries available from work (whether at railways stations or elsewhere), always seemed a good idea to me.
Most times we go to the GP it isn’t because we have a cold or flu. Its always “Doc, I’ve got a lump under my arm, is it cancer?”, or something like that.
With that sort of query, you don’t take time off work (not unless it is serious)
From what I understand, most GP queries are like that.
The legacy of a Labour government:
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/news/Prebudget-report-Broke-helpless-Alistair.5899049.jp
That debt interest in 2010-11 will absorb the entire proceeds from capital gains tax, inheritance tax, stamp duty, tobacco duties, wine and spirits duties, beer and cider duties, betting and gaming duties, air passenger duty, the climate change levy, the aggregates levy and Customs and Excise levies – and still leave £1bn to find.
And this debt interest bill will rise sharply in future years, forcing further cuts in departmental spending limits as room has to be made for this cost.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5625503/gordon-browns-one-and-only-legacy.thtml
94 - yes he set up a trust with the one third MSP’s salary , he also get his first minister salary as well as the MP’s one.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/6284740.stm
Morning All,
94 – Tom Robinson, the tax payer is funding Alex Salmond twice, what Salmond chooses to do with his MSP salary is immaterial as the tax payer has still paid out, I think you are confusing personal gain with Taxpayer funded.
ChristinaD is correct on this point.
95. Roger
Keep your spirits up Roger! You are clearly a decent guy.
As it happens I agree with Patrick at 91: “I think there is clearly going to be political pain for Dave in the next parliament”.
I genuinely think that PM Dave is going to have a record short honeymoon, floowed by collapse in the polls by Autumn 2010. UKIP are going to rise to become a force to be reckoned with in a few years time IMHO.
This is why I gasp in amazement whenever a member of The Herd says something like “Oh, well if we don’t win XYZ constituency this time, we’ll win it in 2014/15″. That just ain’t gonna happen.
By 2014/15 the Tories will be well and truly on the back foot. So, for example, if they fail to gain seats like Stirling, Argyll&Bute, AberdeenshireW&K, AberdeenS, EdinburghS, EdinburghSW, EastRenfrewshire or Berwickshire et al at UK GE 2010 then they are NEVER going to win in these areas prior to Independence Day.
93. That’s sense, but the Labour election planners don’t see it that way. They started the Hung Parliament narrative, but have now let go of all reality and say they are planning an outright majority.
Unless of course they know something we don’t…….how the hell can Labour win outright from here?.
91 Patrick
There was an encouraging piece in Standpoint from Oliver Letwin, who made the point that there is a long term strategy behind the Conservatives policies to reduce the demands on the state/taxpayer.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/12/11/how-valid-is-the-quickie-pbr-poll-in-the-times/
But I agree. Balance the budget ASAP.
Yet another jiggling, grinning video clip from Brown on GMTV:
http://www.gm.tv/videos/?vxClipId=1441_gmtv_7730
Oh what sheer sincerity!
99
On the government’s own figures, the total debt will be about 1.1 trillion pounds in April 2011.
The 10 year gilt is currently just under 4%. At 4%, that debt will cost over 40 billion to service. At 5%, over 50 billion.
By 2014, we will be talking about 60 billion of interest payments at 4%, 75 billion at 5%. That’s almost as much as the exchquer will be getting from VAT. It’s equvalent to the size of the schools budget.
Cheers Labour.
It is worth pointing out that the electorates of Banff & Buchan and Gordon chose AS in a freely-contested election. He was their choice. They have the same right to elect the representative they want as any other consituencies.
I thought that Tories supported both choice and democracy?
103
Wrong link!
http://standpointmag.co.uk/node/2166/full
91 - your final paragraph sounds fantastic, but it’s a bit of a Tory wet dream sadly. For a start, Cameron won’t have any mandate to do half of that because the manifesto is likely to be so bland and non-comittal so as not to frighten the horses.
93 - although I want the Tories to win (I think - at least I do today…), I’m disappointed Darling didn’t just take the Gordon Brown approach (ie, “F… you Tony, I’m Chancellor, I’ll do what I want”) and deliver the budget he and the Treasury wanted. I have much more time and respect for Darling who, considering everything, hasn’t been a disaster as Chancellor (his predecessor cocked it all up in my view) and probably did take the action necessary to rescue the economy whilst Brown probably did nothing more than chuck Nokias around. So it’s a shame (in one sense) that he didn’t just do what he wanted - what was Brown going to do, sack his Chancellor 6 months before polling day and with the economy in crisis? What signal would that have sent out?
93 The most damning indictement of Gordon Brown’s reign from 1997 to 2007 as Chancellor and then as First Lord of the Treasury has been the loss of confidence in the Treasury’s forecasts and in its naarative of what those mean.
The reason the PBR unravelled was that it tried to hide uncomfortable facts and actively mislead. This didn’t work as the media now view the IFS as the authorative source for fiscal understanding and wait on the IFS presentation the following day before making up their minds. It’s the IFS that then drives the narrative.
Its why the Comres post PBR polling is next to useless, because it’s only after the IFS sets out its take that the media and thus the voters get an understanding of what’s proposed.
Ed Balls and Gordon Brown don’t get this, they don’t understand that as well as IFS, there are financial blogs out there that, just ike the “climate change deniers” with the leaked emails or the newspaper expenses blogs “tell us if you see anything interesting in your MPs claim”, have expert eyes looking for the lies, the mistruths, the unexplained inconsistencies. Its harder to mislead.
Ed Balls lost his rag because, in his world, he had planned to use the PBR to set out “the choice”. He expected the misleading narrative to be accepted and thus lay out foundation for an attack based on the dividing lines he and Gordon had set out. Peter Allen didn’t let him do it, he questioned the basis, wanted to talk about the Government not the opposition. Ed was frustrated, as we have seen Mandelson frustrated on Today, because the media don’t follow the old rules.
87 - Roger.
If you think the Shadow Culture Secretary will protect anything from the ravages of Murdoch, I’d like to comission you to do a safe sex ad featuring a candyfloss prophylactic.
87 Roger, I don’t wish to see the BBC broken up (and i don’t think it will happen). However it will benefit from some pruning; far too much money goes into administration and management rather than production. That imbalance needs to be addressed.
In addition, there needs to be a move away from competing for ratings with the independent networks, and a return to the core values of quality programming. I hope they can do it; I don’t mind paying a TV tax for the things they do well, but like many others I’m heartily sick of coughing up for ‘Strictly Come Dancing on Celebrity Ice’ look-a-likes.
TIM’S LIFE IN BRIEF!
Can just picture the scene in Tim’s little bedsit:
Tim sat in the middle of the room in his grubby string vest, scissors in hand cutting out all the expenses details of just the Tory MP’s.
I can just imagine the smile on his face, as he manages to keep the cigarette in his mouth.
He is deepy engrossed. However he manages to pause and look at the portrait of Stalin, upon which, Tim has superimposed Gordy’s head! He pauses very briefly, looks at the important work he is doing and whispers “Do you realise, how much you mean to me Gordon?”
Sad but …. Oh so very real !
105. Peter from Putney
I think I’m gonna barf.
Has this been linked to:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/dec/10/brown-darling-vat-increase-plan
The recriminations and briefings have begun. Treasury wanted to increase VAT beyond 17.5%, No 10 preferred NI. ‘Govenment sources’ claim that Gordon is still in denial about the scale of cuts required.
108. Bob. So taking about 1/2 to 2/3 of the measures needed to address the debt problem equals a ‘Tory wet dream’. We are truly fuc*ed then. How will we ever get out of this black hole of debt that Brown has bequeathed us? We just simply have to reverse the last decade and do it reasonably quickly.
There’s a truly scary debt chart in the Spectator Coffee House today.
Or put it this way - what would you do?
110 tim, more unjustified bollox. BTW have you found any figures for Chris A yet, to show how many deaths occur in A&E, that could be prevented by an online database rather than paper records?
106 - Stuart, that argument only really holds for Gordon, not Banff & Buchan, since at the last G.E. he wasn’t a MSP [although I understand he did make his position clear].
Personally, I would legislate to prevent the same person sitting in more than one national or supranational parliament. At the very least I would legislate to avoid paying them twice.
Here’s one for all our Tory friends criticising Alex Salmond this morning:
‘John Lamont MSP - should he quit now?’
http://andrewrunning.blogspot.com/2009/11/john-lamont-msp-should-he-quit-now.html
The Herd, hypocritical? No, no, no, no… it cannot possibly be true!
Alex Johnstone -> if you ever wondered why the Scottish Tories are languishing so low in the polls, take a wee keek at AJ. He is typical of the material Goldie has to put up with. Your enlightenment is just a Google or two away.
105 If Gordon wants all families to be together at Christmas, then it does raise the question - why has he sent 10,000 troops to Afghanistan?
114. The latest in a devastating sequence of revelations -
1. The PBR is inadequate - it does not go nearly far enough to tackle the deficit. The markets have now voted on this, raising gilt yield 14 basis points yesterday alone and the cost of servicing the debt by billions.
2. The Treasury was stopped from introducing a more sensible package by the sticky fingers of Brown and mini-Brown Balls. Political interference in the cause of fiscal irresponsibility.
3. Despite 2. we are still on course for the whole of Labour’s spending increases in 2001-2008 to be unwound. The last two terms of Labour government have been entirely pointless.
I agree that it doesn’t tell you much about how the public will ventually react, and for the reasons you say.
But it does tell you a bit about how the process of the public digesting a budget works. For instance if a massive story broke hours after a budget - an election called perhaps? The next September the 11th? - the original response might stick, and it might escape scrutiny.
I hate how the media have tried to paint a picture where state schools are in terrible states and are held back from going on many school trips. My school is ranked pretty averagely and gets average results year on year but one thing that they have had since I’ve been there (and since 1997) is lots of funding. In less than 10 years we’ve had a new sports complex built, a new english block, new computers, new library and all the old scummy rooms that went mouldy under the Tories are now clean and looking brand new. Plus, if it wasnt for my state school then I wouldn’t have been to all the amazing places I’ve been over the years and seen the fantastic plays I’ve seen. So don’t take everything you see on the news too literally as its usually just a few angry schools getting riled up over a few problems.
110 - mandate schmandate, Bob. If the Tories win, they can easily say “it’s much worse than we thought,” blame Labour for “politically expedient forecasting that independent review has shown to be vastly over-optimistic,” and get a proper emergency Budget passed within 3 months. Might as well get it done asap.
117 - I’d love to get out the axe. But whilst stuff like “across the board public sector pay cuts of 15%” and “disbanding quangos and subsuming back into ministries” sounds great, you’re talking about people’s (voters’…) livelihoods, jobs and earnings.
Labour hasn’t just pursued a scorched earth policy in the past 6 months, they’ve been at it for a decade. It will take a generation or more to clean up after them, it won’t be done in a couple of terms like Thatcher was able to manage.
Sadly, I don’t see any alternative but to chip away at it and we’re in for the long haul - there won’t, and can’t, be any quick fixes. Any attempt at being too bold will just result in Labour getting back in in 5 years time and we’re back where we started…
123
Joshua is your surname Cutnpaste by any chance ?
Right, I’m logging off now. Away to buy a Christmas tree (yes, I know it is too early, but the Swedish better half wants to celebrate Lucia) and collect the new 2nd car (Peugeot 107 - bright yellow).
I send a big Lucia hug to Roger: cheer up old chap!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Lucy%27s_Day
Have a tasty lussekatt:
http://nn.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fil:Saffron_bun_20051213_001.jpg
… and some glögg:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mulled_wine
123 “and all the old scummy rooms that went mouldy under the Tories are now clean and looking brand new.”
In equally emotive terms, I hope the kids enjoy their classrooms, because the price has been to turn an economy in 1997 that was clean and looking brand new into one that is old, scummy and has gone mouldy…
Lucia: “… the tradition of Lucevaka – Stay awake on the night between 12th till 13th and guard oneself against being taken by Lucifer lord of darkness by having an all night party.”
Beware the Dark Lord Mandy on Lucia!!
125. If. There’s no guarantee of that at the moment. Without wishing to do a mark Senior, the council by-elections weren’t good for the Conservatives last night.
The partisan side of me would be delighted if Labour actually had to implement the measures (and more, because they’d have to) set out in the PBR; but wanting what’s best for the country, I’d dispair if Labour holds on to office.
124 - Joshua, I don’t care for your paragraphing, and I suspect I don’t care for your politics either, but you’re better than Irfan Ahmed, so welcome.
Good Morning Ashdown Bitch Slapping General Voters For Nick Palmer Worldwide
Meanwhile …. Good edition of PMQ’s last night and also some interesting local election last night with very decent results for Labour.
I note Mike is blaming Belgium for mangling the timing of early threads !! …. Is Mike having a short break or invading Belgium !!
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/labour-mp-is-named-quentin-200912112301/
131 - Yes, big if, David. Regrettably [since idealistically, open debate would be far preferable] the Tories are right to try and keep their promises and policies as vague as they can for fear of frightening the horses - there’s only so much announced pain people will vote for (never mind that there’ll be pain either way).
110 – Tim, the Labour party actively courted Rupert Murdoch prior to the 97GE to the point where Blair jumped on a plane to Oz and curtsied before the ‘evil one’. Labour then benefitted for the next 12 years from the support of Murdoch’s news-paper stable, there was no bleating of ‘Murdoch ravages’ then, why should there be now?.
The Sun has switched allegiance that’s all, get over it.
SIMPLE - CUT EVERYTHING
Including the belt on Gordon’s treadmill. That way he will REALLY have to go outside and run!
133, Mr. W, he’s having a short break. If he were invading Belgium he’d've finished by now.
Been at the same school for 12 years, Josh ?
Has anyone else checked out the local election results from yesterday? Proof that the voters are in a different place to political commentators.
F1: I’ve changed my mind completely about the new points system regarding Vettel. It will actually be good for him, as he usually scores at the top end but has low reliability, meaning someone like Button, who is reliable but patchy, will end up worse off because the points system is more heavily skewed towards the podium places.
99 Doctors near work (JSK)
Yes, it sounds attractive, and in the pilot referred to above, many people used them. But not enough, and not as many as forecast.
I like the idea of being able to pop into a consulting room on the way to work. But on the other hand my GP is five miles away because I cannot be bothered to transfer to the surgery across the road. So how much do I really value convenience?
The GP system is not ideal but it mostly works. Politicians should remember that in health as in expenses, their needs, although real, are different from ours. Moving doctors around or into larger clinics will inconvenience more voters than it helps.
138 MD. Quite so. Mike has managed what the WWI German High Command failed to do. Such is the power of PB !!
140. sockpuppet time
Yesterday I had a look at Kitty Ussher’s expense claims, mainly because she had been a Treasury Minister, who had odd expenses - aertex walls and ceilings - and she had resigned.
This time round she has claimed for a new kitchen, and at over £16K, I wondered if this really added value to her role as an MP, is this a necessary expense or not? She also had claimed for an air conditioner, but had expense claims for double doors and some structural work rejected.
She also appears to have flipped her second home designation, or at least there is a press comment on this.
Now if The Treasury Ministers are changing their principal home designations from one year to another, and then altering their kitchens, toilets and in second homes/last year’s principal private residience. I wonder if they really have the moral authority to tax us. It all looks like another outbreak of ‘do as I say, not as I do.’
Although there are plenty of odd claims by MPs, I feel that the actions of The Treasury Ministers are those worthy of a deeper degree of scrutiny.
****** Betting Post ******
I’ve not watched a single minute of the current X Factor contest, as it’s really not my bag, but I do think there is a great betting opportunity in this weekend’s final.
I noticed that GMTV are running a viewers’ poll, surely a first class steer on the likely outcome on the night since it too must involve many thousands of viewers.
The current standings in the poll are:
Joe McElderry……48%
Olly Murs……….23%
Stacey Solomon…..29%
Stan James are offering 1/2 on Joe, which with a 19% lead in the above poll, less than three days before the final contest looks great value to me. Imagine being able to obtain these odds on the Tories were they to have a similar poll lead - you’d be lucky to get 1/4.
Yes, I do appreciate there’s the small matter of him performing on the night, but rather like voting for a political party in the GE, the overwhelming majority will have already made up their minds on who they intend to vote for.
The words ‘money’, ‘rope’ and ‘old’ spring to mind. I’m on!
124 A lot of the best schools, including many of the the grammar schools which provided so many Labour MPs and ministers with the educational opportunities which allowed them to advance, were in old buildings.
Case in point is Gordon. His old tatty school was outstanding. It’s been replaced by a shiny new school which isn’t anywhere near as helpful to its students.
Its the quality of the education that matters, not the bricks.
124. ur r ed balls mp and I claim my five SFr.
the point is the school trips are endangered by the excessive CRB checks, on staff, parents, host families and so on. It is the intrusive snooping which is the issue not the shiny new buildings.
134. “The emergence of Labour’s secret Quentin came as the latest batch of MPs’ expenses claims revealed that many of them are still lying about not being thieves.”
The Mash is closer to the truth than most of our newspapers.
140 Harold W. You have to be careful not to ascribe too much importance to local election results. The Conservative are at a historically high watermark and losses should be expected. That said they can be interesting straws in the wind in competitve seats where no especial local event or Independent personality transcends the scene.
148 - ” r ed balls mp”
And does he?
140 Look up Sean Fear’s comments from yesterday. The Tories made great adavnces in the locals…in 1997.
Interesting isn’t it.
The best-off group, professionals and managers, are at 86 per cent the most strongly in favour of the bonuses tax and they are also, at 56 per cent, above-average backers of the national insurance rise, even though they will be the hardest hit
from the populus poll.
They are obviously racked with guilt.
So to Mike’s rules on polling we can add a new one.
Any poll that is even mildly encouraging for Labour is rubbish.
I did notice, that on that March 2008 thread, I was first! I’m still waiting for my prize.
PfP - that’s ludicrous. GMTV voters do not correspond nearly closely enough to X-Factor voters to draw that kind of conclusion. The analogy with a poll is wholly misleading, and it’s certainly not a “first class steer”.
The X-Factor market is very strong (£4.5 million matched on betfair, plenty more with bookmakers) and prices tend to be “right”.
Having said all that, Joe is 1.49 to lay on betfair at the moment so I wouldn’t put anyone off the 1/2 if they like a short-odds punt.
152 - But that was a function largely of turnout (disillusioned Tories who wouldn’t come out in 1993 but were willing, reluctantly, to drag themselves to the polling stations in 1997).
The recent run of local council by-elections aren’t like that as turnout is comparable (indeed a bit lower) than the corresponding May elections.
It is true that these are small samples and Tories start from a very high base, so it’s nothing to get too excited about. But also, it shouldn’t be written off for tentative signs that Labour are past the worst and that the pre-Budget was not quite the lead balloon some on here suggest (albeit that the coals are still being raked over).
GB at Brussels praising “innovative financing initiatives”. A new synonym.
Roger, we’ve had a member of Opus Dei in the Cabinet very recently (and a very good Cabinet member she was too, one of the best of this Government). If Lord Trimble were in the Cabinet, I expect he too would be a very good Cabinet minister.
146, 154 - It’s well worth reading popbitch to consider the betting on X Factor. Its posters often have inside information on past votes.
The final is always dangerous to bet on, though, because the audience is bigger and different from previous weeks. Last year Eoghan won easily almost every week, but came third in the final.
156. Was Brown speaking on the innovative financing applies of MPs?
glw….seems you were correct about Darling. Not sure it absolves him entirely as he could have blown the whole thing wide open but he has tried to limit the damage [a bit].
I think the headline that Gordon overruled the Treasury ‘because of the forthcoming election’ is really bad for them. It demonstrates a split, undermines Gordon as a leader, paints the Tory position as inevitable, paints them as strong the LP as weak.
They were supposed to portaying Cameron as a weak and incapable of taking the decsions necessary for the country. Opps.
According to the “Times” shadsy’s mob have stopped taking bets on a March 26th election :
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6952403.ece
129 Not quite on your side there MM, investment in infrastructure is real investment unlike much of what Gordon did. Many schools were approaching 50 years old and were built in the 50’s-70’s using poor materials so were due for replacement or upgrades.
I have doubts about the huge costs for some flagship academy buildings, designed by high price architects as grand projects but improving school, hospital and housing stock was necessity in many cases. Don’t doubt there was considerable inefficiency in the programmes but at least we were left with assets that we can use for next few decades.
As to why the stock was run down?
The 70’s - and we now face the same problem of a decade of constraint to get finance back on keel, probably another cyclical recession towards end of the teens, and another period of constraint. Maybe by 2025 we will be rich enough again.
Adam Boulton asks GB a question about financial honesty. Adam Boulton is wrong.
Not a good night for the Tories….
http://lukeakehurst.blogspot.com/
3 Labour gains…………AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
It would be odd if the hostile media coverage of the PBR didn’t have some effect, though I still don’t think the measures were dramatic enough to change the weather either way. The only straw in the wind we have apart from the quickie poll was last night’s by-elections, which were nearly all sensationally good for Labour and even worse for the Tories (and worse yet for the BNP) - typically Labour’s rating recovering to pre-2005 levels and in one case to 2001 level. People here may think that surprising and I must say I do too, but for betting purposes it’s data like anything else. Can Mike find out what happened to the ComRes poll?
With my maths hat on, a response about sample sizes. 1000 is perfectly adequate for answering the question that most of us ask: ‘how are the main parties doing?’ and 6000 is not really much better. To explain this apparent oddity: imagine you’re trying to decide whether the people of West Lothian prefer dogs or cats. You canvass 1000 homes, carefully selecting a representative sample. You find 400 cats, 300 dogs and 300 with other pets or none. It’s already extremely probable that the correct proportions are around 4:3:3 and if you go on and visit another 5000 you’re unlikely to find anything very different. Obviously if you canvass the entire constituency the margin of error becones zero, but there isn’t a huge MOE difference between 1000 and 6000.
Stuart is right that a large sample makes small subsamples more meaningful, but only if the subsamples themselves are representative, which is why the regional data for British polls jump around so much even when added together over several months.
154. “GMTV voters do not correspond nearly closely enough to X-Factor voters to draw that kind of conclusion. The analogy with a poll is wholly misleading, and it’s certainly not a “first class steer”.”
Aaron - kindly explain exactly how and why you arrive at this conclusion and also for apparently totally disregarding such a large poll lead.
How’s about offering me the same odds of 1/2 on Joe McElderry winning, i.e. my £20 against your £10?
157
Trimble would be the only Nobel Prize winner in the cabinet. Has Roger something against Nobel prize winners ?
161
That’s an odd article, I can get 7/4 with Ladbrokes for a March GE.
That’s one scary graph at the Speccie coffee house..
Debt to remain for a generation. (gulp)
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5625503/gordon-browns-one-and-only-legacy.thtml
167 Alanbroke. Has ‘Stars and Stripes’ anything against Nobel Prize winners ?
168 astate. Ladbrokes have clearly re-opened the market.
166 - A large proportion of the X-factor’s voters are at school when GMTV is on, for a start.
I won’t offer you the 1/2, however, since I have already noted that he is 1.49 to lay on betfair. In any case, I won’t be betting on something I haven’t watched much of!
160. “glw….seems you were correct about Darling. Not sure it absolves him entirely as he could have blown the whole thing wide open but he has tried to limit the damage [a bit].”
I’m not claiming Darling is winning all the battles, or even many of them, but he is apparently trying to reign Brown in, and I believe that if Darling wasn’t achieving anything he’d go.
POPULUS TABLES UP!!
http://populuslimited.com/uploads/download_pdf-061209-The-Times-The-Times-Poll—December-2009.pdf
170
suggest you ask him.
Gordon’s got his credit card again. Beeb ticker -
The UK and France to give £1.5bn to developing countries to secure climate change deal
164
Now this is interesting.
Wyke Regis Ward, Weymouth & Portland BC. Lab gain from Con. Lab 579 (40.1%, +3.9), Con 486 (33.7%, -30.1), LD 268 (18.6%, +18.6), Citizens 111 (7.7%, +7.7). Swing of 17% from Con to Lab since 2008. This is in ultra marginal South Dorset.
Even though I think its virtually impossible for Jim Knight to hang on again, Richard Drax’s arse will be twitching at that result.
Still the Tories have shown remarkable ability to pick dud candidates for this seat, perhaps there will be an anti-toff vote afterall.
174 Alanbroke. Do we need to ?
The Populus is not so much a straw on the wind as a waste of time. But these things take time to sink in and Xmas polling is usually bad for us; if the next poll continues in that vein then its possible that the narrative will soften.
Though I think the Govt has lost all credibilty with the media. And I think they actually beginning to dislike many of you personally.
Your party and country are parted, if indeed they were ever joined. But the gap is now clear and can’t be hidden.
178 was to NPMP @167
175 So it’s ‘Cuts at home, gifts abroad’.
175. More cash rattling in the tills of corrupt dictators while public services at home get the axe…
Populus/Times Scottish split (136 respondents):
(+/- change from UK GE 2005)
Lab 37% (-2)
SNP 34% (+16)
Con 13% (-3)
LD 12% (-11)
BNP 3% (+3)
Grn 1% (n/c)
UKIP 0 (n/c)
oth 0
Yet more sign of ‘The Big Squeeze’ in Scotland: the Big Two are going to crush the minor parties in most areas.
The only hope for the Scottish Tories and the SLD’s is to ruthlessly focus all their money and activists on a few key constituencies -> max 5 to 7. All the other constituencies should be forced to fend for themselves.
The Tories have the easier task there. I’d hate to be in charge of SLD strategy!!
172
Darling isn’t being effective at reigning in Brown. The PBR is a clear case of someone placing party politics before the country’s needs. If Darling really wanted to do what was best he should have presented his real budget or resigned.
At least this puts paid to speculation that Darling would be the knifeman to Brown. He hasn’t got the courage of his convictions.
172 I agree. I think if he failed entirely, he might walk.
180/181 - I just wonder how much will be spent on wind farms rather than limos.
So many narratives flying around on here and none of them silly.
I tend to go always with the tried and trusted Richard Nabavi who is saying that Labour peaked last week and are going to struggle from now until the GE.
tim is saying that Labour are underpriced and the Tories overpriced.He did the business at 203 and that seems ok but do note that LAB have moved down this morning with SPIN and the Tories have moved up.
My own counsel is to take on the NOM brigade, or better still to keep on Backing a Tory Overall in the teeth of any bad polls they might receive.At prices in the high 1.4s they are a steal.
177
Lol
I somehow suspect not.
“Moody’s Investors Service said it has no current plans to lower its top debt ratings on the U.S. and the U.K. after a report this week stated the sovereigns may “test the Aaa boundaries.””
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=acEECtEatvZY
Anybody got any news from the count at the Bearsden South by -election (East Dunbartonshire Council)?
Tories defending against (supposed) Lib Dem challenge. Lib Dems seem to be very optimistic.
Mark Senior is predicting: “LibDem 32 Con 30 SNP 22 Lab 16 LibDem gain after transfers” over at Vote2007.
161/168 Interesting to see Diane Abbott on This Week would prefer an earlier election. Incidentally letters regarding increases in pensions/child benefits etc from April 6th are normally sent to recipients well beforehand and may well conveniently arrive in the middle of a possible GE campaign in late Feb or early March.
185. I’m sure the WaBenzis will find a good use for the cash.
Policy on the hoof once again?
From citywire:
HMRC and Treasury to re-write bank bonus rules
By Dylan Lobo | 08:34:06 | 11 December 2009
HMRC and Treasury says asset management firms, advisers and family offices will not be hit by the 50% bank bonus tax after receiving a deluge of calls following the Pre-Budget report.
184
Since yesterday was his big set piece and his best chance to influence events before the GE he has failed - completely. What else is there for him to do except play the blame game to save his own reputation ?
It really puts Ken Clarke in 1997 in a favourable light.
I have a Swedish guest at present. He is at great pains to point out that the Nobel Peace Prize is awarded by the Norwegians.
160/172 - all of which explains why the PBR satisfied no-one - a camel is, after all, a horse designed by committee.
However the latest fallout shows the continuing power and influence of the MSM - the briefings are because the PBR went down so badly on the front pages, and everyone’s scrabbling to avoid culpability.
O/T.
The nauseating Baroness Scotland on Desert Island Discs. What we have sadly NOT heard (except for the first line):
Kirsty Young: Well, Baroness, how hard it must be, and so lonely, having to provide legal advice that is neccessary but sometimes unwelcome.
PatSco: Not really Kirsty, As Tony Bliar demonstrated so well, anything unpallatable the Cabinet just toss it in the bin. I’m there for decoration really.
Kirsty Young: And of course it is hard to get yourself taken seriously when you are exposed as breaking the law yourself over employment matters is it not……
PatSco:Well of course ‘taking seriously’ is something the public have come to expect of their top politicians…..
Kirsty Young; No doubt the legal advice available to the government will improve shortly when you and your illegal cleaner do the much promised job-swap?
On local by-elections, punters should heed the words of the wise Mr Wells, who reckons their predictive power is a big, fat zero:
The simple fact is that Liberal Democrats always do better in local government by-elections than elsewhere, Labour always do worse, but the amount Labour do worse and the Lib Dems do better isn’t constant, rendering them of very little use in predicting general election support
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1880
197 Do you really mean that Labour always do better? Labour had some pretty impressive swings yesterday.
196. Did she have a crimminal record (choice)?
197.
Richard is generally right. But when the previous tide of big swings to the Tories is reversed substantially across quite large areas of the country (except Peterborough) something is happening. Whether it has any significance at all, wait for another week or two of results - which effectively means mid-January.
194. antifrank - “He is at great pains to point out that the Nobel Peace Prize is awarded by the Norwegians.”
This year, I’d have thought they would not be wanting to advertise that fact!! Monumentally embarassing for Norway.
201. I’m concerned that Obama’s decision to accept this absurd award shows a dangerous streak of vanity on this part, as well.
Re X factor betting, surely the value bet is on Stacey to finish second at 5/4
178 - SallyC Xmas polling is usually bad for us;
Utter nonsense.
Look at the facts.
There are of course special factors at work in the Weymouth and Portland area. The Tories have never been forgiven for closing the Naval base, after saying they wouldn’t, it still lingers.
51: Labour’s ‘Hard working families’, and by hard working, they mean breeding as many more feckless useless labour supporters as the benefits system will allow.
194
maybe your Norwegian friend should also worry that a Labour MP was also trying to steal the “Vidkun Quisling Prize for Disservice to the Nation” by nominating Dave. There are clearly so many better potential recipients this year - Brown , Woollas etc. - this seems a cheap attempt to hijack a much coveted award.
Antifrank, try out these sentences on your guest: “Norge är ett riktigt jävla skitland när man tänker efter. Ett socialistiskt u-land som genom historien blivit rövknullat av en rad nationer och sedan råkade bli rikt.”
https://www.flashback.info/archive/index.php/t-817024.html
The Norway/Sweden conflict can be very reminiscent of the Scotland/England (ahem) “tension”. Take my better half for example: she absolutely loves England and thinks we Scots are all nuts for not loving England too. However, one mention of the word ‘Norway’ or ‘Norwegian’ and she starts foaming at the mouth and using creative swear words. She fails to see the double-standards at work there.
198 Jonathan - Those are Anthony’s words. You really need to read the whole article. Basically he is saying that no-one has been able to find much of a correlation between what happens in local by-elections and GE results.
It’s not something I know much about, but I tend to trust Anthony on this kind of question.
“A FORMER Labour party leader on Wyre Forest District Council has won back the seat he dramatically lost two years ago in a by-election. ”
http://www.kidderminstershuttle.co.uk/news/4789330.Ex_Labour_leader_wins_back_Wyre_Forest_council_seat/
Maybe there is a nascent Labour revival in local elections probably as a result of hard nosed Tory Councils making unpopular decisions in the face of the cash crisis. Even though the public I suspect will remain resolved to eject Labour nationally, I wonder if separating the date of the GE from the local elections would actually assist Labour locally. Perhaps another reason for an early GE although whether Gordon and the bulk of the PLP care one way or another is a moot point.
207
Tell you what Stuart, why don’t you guys just swap country with the Norwegians, then we’ll all be happy. Orkneys and Shetland won’t have to move as they’re Norwegian anyway.
207, your wife sounds very sensible
The betfair month market is hopelessly illiquid now.
You can still get 2s on March - but who really wants that price on Gordon going early - have you not been paying attention since 2007 ?????
208 I suspect his opinion is out of date. The Tories will be hard pressed not to lose lots of council seats in the years ahead.
!!!Anecdote alert!!!
In the last 48hrs I’ve been out and about and overheard numerous conversations. There is a lot of anger out there directed at…
* Bankers because of their bonuses
* MPs expenses and their follies
I have overheard absolutely nothing about the PBR.
Conclusions…
Politically, the govt. should be hammering home the Bankers Bonus levy for all it’s worth at the moment.
Things are very unclear.
202. Was there ever a lefty without “a dangerous streak of vanity”, runnymede?
Self-righteousness coupled to a complete lack of principle are what makes leftists so bl00dy dangerous.
51. “Hard working families”
A classic in the Telegraph 2 days ago: Alistair Darling told MPs that child and disability benefit would rise by 1.5 per cent from next April.
He said: “I want to help families receiving other benefits linked to the inflation figures – such as child benefit and some disability benefits.”
You can sort of see that child benefit goes to families but channeling disability benefits to the hardworking family looks a bit odd.
214 Jonathan - The Tories will be hard pressed not to lose lots of council seats in the years ahead.
Indeed, but that is a different point.
I see Rogerdamus has penned his last pro-Labour quatrain. I wonder, narcissistically, if this is related to the question I asked him a couple of days ago, in good faith - which he never answered.
What do intelligent Labour supporters honestly think of this government? Really, truly? They must be feeling the most bitter disappointment.
After all, Labour came into power with such possibilities. They had a golden economic legacy, oddles of media and voter goodwill, and vast majorities in the Common. They could have done so much - SO much.
Instead we got - (I’m sorry I’ll say this again) - hundreds of thousands of Iraqis dead, the biggest deficit in the developed world, two disastrous and incoherent wars, a FALL in social mobility, a terrifying national debt which will take 40 years to pay off…
… AND the most poisonous scandal in modern British politics, the headlong fall in Britain’s global position from 4th to 7th, a DECREASE in industrial production, a policy of mass immigration and multiculturalism which even Labourites now confess was disastrous, the first fascists elected to power, the longest and deepest recession in almost a century, and savage public sector cuts which will, oh-so-poignantly take us right back to the spending levels of 1997.
How can any sane and sensible lefty look at that record and feel anything but terrible shame and regret?
Roger is a sane lefty. He therefore feels shame and regret.
153. coldstone December 11th, 2009 at 9:20 am
The AB 86% in favour of the bonus tax is “interesting” (and surprising tbh). However, in a poll of 550 people I guess the subsamples are pretty meaningless.
I hope the kids enjoy their re-rebuilt schools as they are going to be paying for them all their lives.
207 - The Swedish attitude to the Norwegians is more reminiscent of the English attitude to the Irish (or dare I say, the attitude of many on here to Norfolk): unsophisticated country cousins.
I wind up my Swedish friend by doing my impression of the Swedish chef from the Muppets. Every single time, he says: “we do NOT talk like that!”
215. Possibly not. I was never a big fan of Obama but I thought he was better than this.
97. Aaron, you forgot to mention that Salmond does not make the rules, he did ask not to be paid but seemingly the rules do not allow that. Hence he gives it to charity as the next best option.
207. The Norway/Sweden conflict can be very reminiscent of the Scotland/England (ahem) “tension”.
What, you mean one lot are racist saddoes who blame the other lot for all their problems, while the other lot are barely aware of their existence?
Boulton says Gordon has doubled the amount we are giving to the CC fund for developing countries by 2012 to £800m. France are paying £700m
213 Ah the power of pb.com : 3.2 for March now available..
214 ‘Politically, the govt. should be hammering home the Bankers Bonus levy for all it’s worth at the moment.’
Why bother? It’s a total failure. The crafty bankers have found a hundred and one ways to get around it.
96. Roger December 11th, 2009 at 8:29 am
Unless you want to deny Ulster Protestants any representation at all, isn’t David Trimble rather to be welcomed?
You can’t Unionists to metamorphose into John Hume.
102. Simon, Cobblers, it has nothing to do with Salmond , he asked not to be paid. Christina as ever was just having a poke at Salmond and the SNP, she does this on a regular basis regardless of the facts and pathologically hates the SNP.
223
In these straightened times why doesn’t he just hand it back to the tax-payer or not submit a claim ?
I don’t think the full extent of the PBR will be seen in polls until early next week (i.e. that the fieldwork will have been conducted over the weekend).
It is only at the weekend, when the dust has truly settled, that people will have a considered response to the PBR, and the various analyses and reactions, that the impact on voting intentions will truly be seen.
What do people think?
214 227
and politically the opposition parties should be hammering home the message the government created the bank crisis.
Who made Fred Goodwin Sir Fred ?
230 That actually goes for every lefty who insists we don’t pay enough tax.
Anyone who wishes to is entirely at liberty to write a cheque to the state any time they like. Your income tax bill as calculated by the Inland Revenue website is the minimum payment you’re required to make, not the maximum.
221. The Danes also have a low opinion of the Norwegians, thinking them unspeakably dull and humourless.
215
Self-righteousness coupled to a complete lack of principle are what makes leftists so bl00dy dangerous.
I was only saying to Jeffrey Archer the other day, ‘What I like about you Jeff, (I can call you Jeff can’t I?) is your complete absence of self-righteousness and your high or should I say lofty principles’ Oh Yes!
171 “I won’t offer you the 1/2″
Ha, ha, ha, I thought not - Mouth rather than money!
I would have thought, working for a bookie, that you of all people would have appreciated this is not about not having personally watched much of the programme (I haven’t watched any of it), rather it’s about taking heed of a massive lead in a poll on a widely watched TV programme which unlike you I consider to be highly representative. You are unable to demonstrate any evidence to the contrary.
Presumably you are happy to accept the findings of political pollsters and you don’t feel it necessary to stand on the street corner to gauge peoples’ opinions for yourself.
You evidently just don’t get it and quite frankly it is your views which are so clearly ludicrous.
I look forward to hearing the result of X Factor including Joe’s winning margin and collecting my winnings!
229 – MalcolmG, according to Tom Robinson’s comment, ChristinaD stated that Salmond is paid two salaries, he is.
Just because Salmond has no say in the matter is irrelevant, her point was that it costs the Tax payer.
186. URW December 11th, 2009 at 9:47 am
“I tend to go always with the tried and trusted Richard Nabavi who is saying that Labour peaked last week and are going to struggle from now until the GE.”
Same. In fact I think Richard has been reading the last few weeks better than anyone.
(Setting him up for a fall now. Sorry Richard
)
233
funny; the Germans think the same about the Scots.
235 - In popbitch’s latest mailout, they state that Joe has outpolled Olly and Stacey combined twice in the last three weeks.
175 - The UK and France to give £1.5bn to developing countries to secure climate change deal
Buy shares in Daimler then.
237.
Betfair Labour seats markets
225-249 = 5.5
200-224 = 4.3
175-199 = 5.3
Party seats line = 213
Right it’s Friday here’s a mad idea I can float to raise money from bankers or anyone with too much cash… Inspired by 232.
Cash for honours.
Pay 10% over and above your tax obligations consistently for 5 years and get some kind of honour.
A CBE perhaps
Pay 10% for ten years and get a better honour.
20 years you a knighthood.
Open, transparent. A win-win all round.
219
So how big are the subsamples in the marginal polls, that everyone gets so excited about?
MPs’ expenses: Cabinet facing fresh questions over latest claims
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/6781356/MPs-expenses-Cabinet-facing-fresh-questions-over-latest–claims.html
CBeebies getting a good mention at last.
238. Pot…Kettle…:)
242
this will bankrupt political parties.
246 Like I say, a win-win. And the genius is you don’t have to be super rich to take part.
242 Jonathan, didn’t Blair run a similar business model?
Brown also claimed this morning that his greenery agenda will create 400,000 jobs.
That, on his past record, is unlikely. But leave those doubts aside.
What he is claiming is a rather dramatic change to the economy and that will lose jobs as well as, hopefully, create them.
It is quite possible that there will be more losses than gains even with modest changes but they could become catastrophic if the more radical plans of the Clima-zealots are put into action.
It seems it really is panto season in government.
Treasury urged tougher cuts, overruled by #10,
#10 oh no we didn’t,
oh yes you did,
on no we didn’t….
249 - Will had included gas rig workers, petrol pump attendant and shoe makers again?
249 - Will that included gas rig workers, petrol pump attendant and shoe makers again?
249
the man who let the country’s biggest wind turbine manufacturer close is going to create green jobs ? He’s already starting at minus 600 how’s he going to get to 400,000 ?
The time has come for Darling to “do a Howe” before the OESI drags him to hell as an accomplice.
250 - “But did you threaten to overrule him?”
129/162. Labour’s problem is that they equate higher spending totals within a department with results.
I went to a private school in an old Victorian building. We had drafty classrooms, old desks and inadequate heating.
However, the school did a lot of money on excellent teachers, close learning support, books and after school sports and classes. It also had a very inspiring head teacher, low bureaucracy, close involvement of parents and good staff morale as a result.
That’s how you get an excellent education in the private sector for similar money.
For some reason Labour gets semi-orgiastic about merely the act of spending more money – and it has an edifice complex. It is obsessed with raising grand monuments to signify its benign munificence and driven by a desire to demonstrate “renewal” as it mistrusts the past (maybe it’s some spiritual neo-Marxist ritualistic thing?)
They have wasted far too much money on fancy new computers, interactive whiteboards, bureaucracy, central government diktats and fancy expensive glass/steel structures.
It’s breathtakingly simple but the real solution means ministers can’t point to something new and say; “Look, I did that. We’re *changing* things.”
Um.. no Oscar, you’re not.
Is it any wonder our educational results haven’t seen a real improvement?
243. coldstone December 11th, 2009 at 10:30 am
Not sure. I don’t pay much attention to subsamples. In general they are tiny and not balanced.
The one valid use of them that I can see is if one aggregates regional subsamples from a large number of polls and draws very broad-brush conclusions, such as “Labour are doing better in Scotland than in England”.
254
the time has passed. That was yesterday. He failed. Miserably.
182: Stuart Dickson
Re: Populus Poll: The sample size for Scotland is actually 70 - see Table 2.
Out of 1500 people contacted Populus has more than 35% who Don’t Know, Will Not Vote or Refused. Thus their weighted sample is 840.
A major change since their last poll is the South-East Including London) - sample size 226.
Cons: 37%; LAB 32%; LD 21%.
This appears to be out of line with other polls.
Populus also seems to have dropped its split between Public Sector and Private Sector Employment.
Why are we shelling out twice as much as France? We’re almost identical in terms of population and economy size. Useless Gordon getting screwed again.
Why are we paying at all? Darling has just increased Employees NI by 2 billion a year. Now Gordon is giving a quarter of that to god knows who. Why is a country with a 12-14% deficit giving billions away?
#188 There was a caveat to that Gabble:
HONG KONG (Reuters) - The top sovereign credit ratings of Britain and the United States are not under threat of a downgrade right now, but a worst case scenario foresees a cut by 2013, analysts from Moody’s Investors Service said on Friday.
223 - From my point of view, the next best option would be to pay it back to the UK government, since they are the ones funding his Westminster salary, and they are also notably short of funds at the moment. Mind you, I can see why the leader of the SNP might prefer not to do that.
254 Martin C - Too late. He is an accomplice. The developing narrative of splits within the Cabinet is a nice one - just the kind of think the media love.
237 MichaelK - Thanks for the kind words. We shall see!
249 I noted in the PBR that Darling claimed Britain was a world leader in Green technology - no-one queried him on this.
Wave power, yes, Scots company Pelamis has the first commercial plant operational in Portugal.
Wind Power - Germany, Denmark, Netherlands & USA have this pretty well tied up. Jobs in construction but not the technology.
Nuclear Power - French technology, so mainly jobs round construction.
Solar Power - Germany, USA, Japan, Korea and others way ahead.
Geothermal - USA, Iceland and others already developed the technology.
So the intellectual property & patents elsewhere, jobs in UK about installation & maintenance. Not high value in the main.
Oh dear! poor ol’ Howarth really upset.
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/12/tory-mp-snaps-as-exes-claim-for-sky-sports-refused.html
263 .. kind of thing..
Brown is like one of those fashionistas who is all credit card and no income.
But the fur coat is nice even if there is nothing underneath it.
Carrying on the panto season theme, starring in Jack and the Giant Beanstork….
“He’s behind you…..”
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2009/10/08/article-1218897-06BD435E000005DC-998_468×621.jpg
259. Financier: Populus also seems to have dropped its split between Public Sector and Private Sector Employment.
Wasn’t it Mori who had that?
260
It’s ‘Gordon Leading the Way’ again.
That he does so with other peoples money is neither here nor there, as far as he is concerned - especially if he believes it is in ‘the long term interest of hard-working families’ - and it makes him look statesmanlike.
I think Ed Balls is the Tory mole… it all makes sense then.
Latest eg his assault on national treasure (well in my office anyway) Mr. Peter Allen, fellow Spurs man on R5.
Love the picture set-up on the Robbo blog.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/
I think we see now why the date for the PBR was chosen.
Throw muck all round with the expenses the next day.
By the weekend the focus is on the Branch Al Gore-idian bash in Denmark.
264 Ted - I was talking a few months ago to the chap who heads the nuclear industry trade body. To my surprise he said that the UK still retains a considerable body of expertise in the nuclear industry, and that something over 70% of the value in a nuclear power station could be sourced in the UK. The big exception is the specialist high-pressure boiler technology, where the Japanese are the world leaders.
265. coldstone.
Understandably so, since Gordon Brown’s had a similar claim paid for years.
256. edifice complex
Excellent! LOL
269: London Statto
See Page 1 of their November poll
272 - That was clearly the plan, especially given the fact most of our media have very short attention spans and are economically illiterate. Add to that how much Expeneses turns the likes of the Telegraph on and AGW the BBC, absolutely ideal.
172. I hate myself for doing this, but: reined in not reigned in. Like stopping/slowing a horse.
On Darling being nobbled by Brown the Daily Mash post-budget piece in March is very funny:
[Darling] told the Sunday Times: “I looked through the books a couple of weeks ago and within 10 minutes it become abundantly clear that things were - oh, how should I put this? - utterly fucking hopeless.
“I then decided the best course of action would be to open a packet of Hobnobs and watch my Dukes of Hazard DVDs.”
He added: “I did think about cutting loads of those stupid public sector jobs we invented, but then Gordon would just tell everyone I had genital warts and that my missus is round the bend.”
Asked what he would do to cut Britain’s £160bn budget deficit, Mr Darling shrugged and said: “I dunno, disband the army? Or maybe we could make things… out of wicker.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/i%27m-not-even-trying-any-more,-admits-darling-200904201711/
274. Have we got to the bottom of how Brown managed to splash out more than two grand on decorating a downstairs bog?
LAB GAIN FROM CON
Areley Kings ward, Wyre Forest
Lab - 540 (38% +5)
KHCC - 421 (30% +1)
Con - 394 (28% -7)
UKIP - 63 (4% +4)
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/localgovernment/2009/12/a-disappointing-set-of-byelection-results-from-yesterday.html
278. 2-bog Prescott had visited? The cartoon on Guido’s site for that is always rather disturbing.
273 It does still have expertise but if we need nuclear plants quickly we can’t go with untested/yet undeveloped British designs, it will be based on latest French technology, which isn’t itself entirely without problems in getting set up.
Its true that much of the cost will be spent on UK sourced elements and resources but these aren’t the key high value elements that would put UK at front of nuclear field again.
Energy Demand.
Esso are forecasting that Global Energy Deamnd will rise by 35% from 2005 to 2030, after allowing for efficency savings. The demand for gas will rise by 55% in the same period.
They predict that oil, gas and coal will still provide 80% of that global energy demand, whilst nuclear and renewables will be growing to fill the gap.
http://www.ogj.com/index/article-display/2875860147/articles/oil-gas-journal/general-interest-2/economics-markets/2009/12/exxonmobil_-global/s-QP129867/s-cmpid=EnlDailyDecember102009.html
Apparently there will be a ComRes poll on the PBR announced on the Daily Politics.
Fairly quickly (so there could be mistakes) rejigged the 2009 results according to the probable 2010 scoring system and got this:
Button 243
Vettel 203
Barrichello 185
Webber 180
Hamilton 128
Actual results
Jenson Button 95
Sebastian Vettel 84
Rubens Barrichello 77
Mark Webber 69.5
Lewis Hamilton 49
The order doesn’t change, and the difference from Webber to Hamilton (Hamilton needs about 50% more points to come 4th) is roughly the same. Webber and Barrichello are actually slightly closer despite the increased number of points on offer.
Overall it looks like it will make little difference, which does beg the question: why change?
I suspect it’s to give the new teams some hope of getting points by extending them down to the top 10.
LAB GAIN FROM CON
Wyke Regis ward, Weymouth & Portland
Lab - 579 (40% +4)
Con - 486 (34% -30)
LD - 268 (19% +19)
Citizen’s Action Party - 111 (8% +8)
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/localgovernment/2009/12/a-disappointing-set-of-byelection-results-from-yesterday.html
279 Remember Labour “always perform worse at local elections” than they do at the GE.
278 - As Guido has pointed out, first we have to get to the bottom of where his “First Home” is. No first home, he shouldn’t have been claiming any ACA, Andrew MacKay stylee.
286, didn’t Labour do worse than even their worst case scenario at the last set of local elections?
The thing that amazes me (still) about the PBR is Darling’s stated intention to borrow £90 billion in four years’ time.
Well Labour will be increasing their majority on those results
Obama Invests in Biofuels - Brown Invests in Bingo
DOE and USDA Announce Over $600 Million Investment in Advanced Biorefinery Projects
Washington—U.S. Department of Energy Secretary Steven Chu and Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack announced Dec. 4 the selection of 19 integrated biorefinery projects to receive up to $564 million from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act to accelerate the construction and operation of pilot, demonstration, and commercial scale facilities.
The projects - in 15 states - will validate refining technologies and help lay the foundation for full commercial-scale development of a biomass industry in the United States.
The projects selected will produce advanced biofuels, biopower, and bioproducts using biomass feedstocks at the pilot, demonstration, and full commercial scale.
The projects selected are part of the ongoing effort to reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil, spur the creation of the domestic bio-industry and provide new jobs in many rural areas of the country.
“Advanced biofuels are critical to building a cleaner, more sustainable transportation system in the U.S.” said Secretary Chu.
“These projects will help establish a domestic industry that will create jobs here at home and open new markets across rural America.”
http://www.biofuelsjournal.com/info/bf_articles.html?ID=86412
Isn’t there normally a lot of huffing about those Daily Politics polls on here? Not weighted etc?
275.
279. What is this shit?
292, Mr. Smithson regularly tore them to shreds for essentially being worthless.
Redaction: the practice is spreading:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/?cartoon=6783008&cc=6695729
CON to LAB Swings:
1.0% - West ward, Peterborough
6.0% - Areley Kings ward, Wyre Forest
6.0% - Kingsbrook ward, Bedford
7.5% - Heron Wood ward, Rushmoor
10.5% - St Helens ward, Hastings
11.5% - Queen’s Park ward, Westminster
13.5% - Camp Hill ward, Nuneaton & Bedworth
17.0% - Wyke Regis ward, Weymouth & Portland
I see MacGabble won’t be needing his taxpayer funded foreign reading material this evening by the looks of how excited a few local election results seems to have got him.
It’s going to be a labour landslide
As a matter of interest, can anyone say what is the typical turnout in local by-elections? And how does a member of the public know that one is taking place in their ward? I’m 44 years old and I’ve never noticed one of these things in progress.
298 Talking of Gabble and expenses, have there been any more extraordinary claims for ordinary garages in Rotherham, in the latest set of revelations?
298 – Gabble is just repeating last nights results, which were posted on here, err last night. It’s the simple things in life that make him happy.
I doubt he’ll be posting this result so I’ll say him the trouble.
Result of by-election in Peterborough City Council West Ward:
Con 1252
Lab 341
LD 224
UKIP 177
Eng Dem 93
Green 58
Poll=34%
302. SimonStClare
The Wyre Forest result only came out this morning.
I mentioned the swing to Labour in Peterborough City Council West Ward @297. Tories down 14 points.
[285] Wyke Regis ward, Weymouth & Portland
Lab - 579 (40% +4)
Con - 486 (34% -30)
LD - 268 (19% +19)
Citizen’s Action Party - 111 (8% +8)
Gabble, that’s not actually a great result for Labour. What it shows is that the previous contest was a “forced choice” between Labour and the Tories, and the Tories won.
If the Tories can present the next election as a forced choice between the Tories and Labour, well, it rather suggests that they will win at a canter.
300
Turnout is usually between 25-35%. Rarely higher, more commonly lower than even 25%. You’ll at least get a voting card through the post. Apart from that, most council by elections get very little, if any coverage.
Exceptions might be when the control of the council is at stake and when the BNP are involved, which tends to get lefties active. Lib Dems tend to love a council by-election and put a disproportionate amount of effort in.
As an example, there was a council by-election down in Sutton a couple of months back. I was asked to help, but decided to help a PPC elsewhere instead. The local tories couldn’t find anyone to help. OTOH, the Lib Dems swamped the place. It’s about priorities and for me a council by-election isn’t a priority.
*Betting Post - Horses*
The two day meeting at Cheltenham will be keeping me mightily distracted until Sunday so you’ll be pleased to learn you won’t be hearing much from me before then. I may be able to pop in from time to time with some suggestions from the PtP Tipping Line - ['Infinitely more successful than the If-Only-It-Were-More-Occasional StJohn Tipping Service'].
Today I will start with Sizing Australia - 1 pt ew at 7/1 in the X-Country Chase at 1.15. Connections are very bullish and the odd jockey arrangemets for the front two in the market, Heads On The Ground and Garde Champetre, convince me that a place return is the least to be expected.
On the political front, I have nothing to add to what URW and Richard N have already indicated - a slow Labour drift over the weeks ahead.
Laters.
303 – You mentioned the swing, not the result and you are repeating last nights results that were posted here last night.
If you wish to play word games, may I suggest you take up scrabble.
92. “If it’s any consolation I expect Dave to be fairly wet in power and that the spending will only get addressed in a manner considered ‘severe’ by political and civil service types”
I agree. The MPs and PPCs inspire little confidence in me too.
As Sean Fear has said on here before the Conservative Party only has this one chance to deliver for its natural supporters.
If it doesn’t and Cameron and his government turn out to be Heath mark II (continuing the nations centre-left drift with a *bit* more balanced spending and ever so slightly lower taxes) the party membership will take its support and money elsewhere.
Conservative MPs will be begging for volunteers to help defend their seats in 2014-15 and they might not get it.
As madasafish said the other day (the words stuck with me) you should judge politicians by what they *do* not what they say. Cameron says some fantastically Conservative things but he treats the party members like dirt. I’m still expecting to cough up though.
I’m giving Cameron and his team the benefit of the doubt, for now, but given I have serious doubts *when we’re not even in government yet* worries me. As things currently stand I very much doubt my membership card will still be intact in my wallet in five years time.
I hope I’m wrong.
92. “If it’s any consolation I expect Dave to be fairly wet in power and that the spending will only get addressed in a manner considered ‘severe’ by political and civil service types”
I agree. The MPs and PPCs inspire little confidence in me too.
As Sean Fear has said on here before the Conservative Party only has this one chance to deliver for its natural supporters.
If it doesn’t and Cameron and his government turn out to be Heath mark II (continuing the nations centre-left drift with a *bit* more balanced spending and ever so slightly lower taxes) the party membership will take its support and money elsewhere.
Conservative MPs will be begging for volunteers to help defend their seats in 2014-15 and they might not get it.
As madasafish said the other day (the words stuck with me) you should judge politicians by what they *do* not what they say. Cameron says some fantastically Conservative things but he treats the party members like dirt. I’m still expecting to cough up though.
I’m giving Cameron and his team the benefit of the doubt, for now, but given I have serious doubts *when we’re not even in government yet* worries me. As things currently stand I very much doubt my membership card will still be intact in my wallet in five years time.
I hope I’m wrong.
273: Richard Nabavi @ 10:48
“… The big exception is the specialist high-pressure boiler technology, where the Japanese are the world leaders.”
In 2006 the Japanese Company purchased Westinghouse from British Nuclear Fuels Ltd. Another wonderful, far-sighted decision from this Government.
308/309. Posted twice for extra flavour.
Some fellow honorable Tories like Richard Nabavi or Sean Fear need to calm me down!
I’m very wound up and irritable at the moment.
In fairness, it was a consistently strong local by-election performance by Labour yesterday across quite a broad sweep of seats, and a consistently weak Tory one.
You can say Tories start from a high base, and you’d be right. But the last couple of months hasn’t been great across the board in these elections for the Tories, and it’s hard to interpret it otherwise than a sign of Labour coming off the bottom.
305. astateofdenmark December 11th, 2009 at 11:17 am
Thanks for that.
I’m surprised the turnout is so high. Amazed, in fact.
I can’t imagine voting in such a thing myself without very persuasive canvassing (which fits with your point about activist commitment, of course).
Ah well. Local democracy not as moribund as I had assumed.
304 - very astute post, Timothy Zebraphile. Perhaps that is the most telling by-election of the night, the 4% swing to Labour notwithstanding?
47 - I’m loving the schedenfreude of Roger’s primal scream at 47!
even he must be pi@@ed off with the tedious fact-free pro-Labour ramping that he’s indulged in for the last 5 years
It would be interesting to determine the proportion of postal votes cast in these by-elections, were they a higher proportion of the total votes cast than normal. If so then the results could be interpreted as merely a measure of the effectiveness of the local postal vote operation.
Net gains in last night’s local by-elections:
LAB +4
CON -3
LIB nc
BNP -1
(Bearsden South ward, East Dunbartonshire still to declare)
Prime Minister Gordon Brown has denied over-ruling Chancellor Alistair Darling on how tough the pre-Budget report (PBR) should be on spending.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8407318.stm
Is that from the same stable as “Brown denied ever considered sacking Darling”?
Iain Dale has some of the Comres results
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/12/bbc-poll-shows-tories-are-trusted-on.html
311, although not a proper Tory, I think you’re being slightly pessimistic. We’ll just have to wait and see. The only way Cameron will have an opportunity to do what he should is if he gets in. We know for certain a Brown (and Balls) return would be catastrophic for the country, not only economically but with ID cards and other insane laws, and quite probably the gerrymandering of the electoral system.
I’m somewhat more optimistic than you, but even if Cameron disappoints he’ll be far better than the destructive incompetent currently prowling the corridors of Number Ten.
318. Oracle: Prime Minister Gordon Brown has denied over-ruling Chancellor Alistair Darling on how tough the pre-Budget report (PBR) should be on spending.
But did he threaten to over-rule him?
317. Gabble December 11th, 2009 at 11:30 am
You can post more than 160 characters at a time, you know.
304 - The trouble with that theory is that Tories in Weymouth no doubt tried to present that local by-election as a “forced choice” without too much success. The Lib Dems and Citizens Action Party both picked up decent votes from a standing start, without presumably being seen as the strongest of contenders. And the fact is that all UK General Election seats will, in fact, have at least one candidate other than Tories and Labour to bugger up the “forced choice” message.
318 Oracle
Is it just me, or does he call Alistair “Alison” in the video clip there?
Martin Bright points out in his blog on Spectator that its possible that by June 2010 Cathy Ashton will be the Labour person with the most power - arguable as Labour should still hold first minister of Wales and that has more real powers IMHO.
Remember July 2005?
There were Labour leaders in UK Government and in London, Labour First Ministers in Edinburgh and Cardiff. The re-elected Tony Blair was President of the EU Council, heading the G8. Peter Mandelson was EU Trade Commissioner, probably second most powerful post in Commission.
Now it looks like Cathy Ashton and Carwyn Jones will be te sole flag carriers for Labour in high offices.
Can I ask a question to Labour posters?
What do you think of Gabble? (honestly)
If I were a Tory I’d still think him a pen@s. He’s completely embarassing.
I think his does more damage to your cause than anything we “Herd” could ever do here.
Do we think / know if the weekend papers are going to have polls with more PBR questions?
Can I ask a question to Lab0ur p0sters?
What do you think of G@bble? (h0nestly)
If I were a T0ry I’d still think him a pen@s. He’s completely embar@ssing.
I think he does more d@mage to your c@use than anything we “H£rd” could ever do here.
324 - Maybe his brain clicked onto the other issue of the day, expenses, and in particular those unexplained late night phone calls?
315 cheeky - ’schedenfreude’ sounds like something nasty in Stella Gibbons - Cold Comfort Farm.
I can’t see a part for Roger in that one.
323. The Lib Dems have contested that ward in the past. I’m interested to know whey did this time but not at the last election - are they trying to establish themselves in second place in the seat (which is where they really should be) or just happy to help out Labour, as has been the case in that area for most of the last decade?
321. Lolz.
“I did not instruct Alasdair Darling and I had no.. intention of instructing Alasdair Darling.”
313
Still moribundish IMO. Here’s some turnouts from last night:
Queens Park about 15% turnout. Rushmoor and Hastings about 22%. Bedford 37%.
It’s a mixed bag.
Labour strategist: ditch the class war
http://www.prweek.com/uk/news/973439/Paul-Richards-Class-War-Doesnt-Convince-Voters/
“I’m sorry, I’m going to be frightfully rude, but did you threaten to over-rule him?”
“33% of those polled said they trusted David Cameron and George Osborne most to steer Britain’s economy through the current downturn…”
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/12/bbc-poll-shows-tories-are-trusted-on.html
Doesn’t sound very high - wasn’t it 46% in the Populus poll?
Front cover of the Economist:
http://www.economist.com/printedition/displayCover.cfm?url=/images/20091212/20091212issuecovUK400.jpg
336
334. Aaron.
335. Gabble.
BBC polls aren’t politically weighted. For the Tories to be ahead at all is impressive.
Are we sure Cameron wants to win?
He’s appeared a little vacant recently.
10% swing in 8 months:
33% of those polled said they trusted David Cameron and George Osborne most to steer Britain’s economy through the current downturn compared with 26% saying they trusted Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling, a lead of 7% for David Cameron and George Osborne. In a similar poll conducted in April this year Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling had a lead of 3%.
On topic. Quickies are always fun, but in the long term, they are as deep and meaningful as a puddle.
Same applies to quickie opinion polls.
316: Yes, and more generally I’ve always thought that the vlaue of council by-elections is not so much to measure likely GE performance but to assess the current state of party morale, since that influences whether activists knock up and voters can be bothered. I don’t think there’s any doubt that most Labour people (Roger excepted!) have cheered up recently, while Tories are not as ebullient as they were - the “I’m only voting Tory because I don’t like Labour” tendency has gained ground, and slips easily into abstention, especially in local elections where it’s hard to pretend with a straight face that the outcome is crucial to global happiness.
327. Casino Royale December 11th, 2009 at 11:35 am
I believe the spelling of ‘H£rd’ is to be harmonized as ‘H€rd’.
336 LondonStatto
That’s brilliant!
I was going to say doesn’t MacGabble have some “work” to do, but then I forgot our lazy son of a bitch MP’s take Fridays off.
336 - That’s magnificent from the Economist. I suppose they thought they would be sailing too close to the wind if they showed him lifting a wallet as well?
227. Why bother? It’s a total failure. The crafty bankers have found a hundred and one ways to get around it.
Whilst I might think it’s a failure in terms of long term tax take. It’s clearly not a failure in terms of being collected. There will be no major ways round the tax (although I have heard that a few people at RBS got guarantees last week - heads up no doubt from the treasury).
They have basically made avoiding this tax illegal (not evading which would already be illegal). Banks have also been told that any complaining is public is exactly what the government would like.
There is a minor probability that we are being a stupid bank and others have found a way round it, but I find that unlikely. I got a lot of my information from a senior liaison guy here who was speaking to the Treasury yesterday and Adair Turner today.
[323] - Tories in Weymouth no doubt tried to present that local by-election as a “forced choice” without too much success.
Well, if they’d tried to present it as a forced choice between a Labour government and a Tory government in Whitehall then it would be no wonder their vote went down, as they would have appeared somewhat crazy - but I do accept your point, that a lot of voters, probably a record number since 1945, are not going to accept the election as being between Tory and Labour.
It doesn’t look as though many of those that do accept the election on those terms will be voting Labour to stop the Tories.
336. “Wha’CHOO fookin lookin at choo FOOKIN Tory C*UNT?”
It seems the media have quickly picked up on us paying more than France and Germany to this climate conscience salving fund.
344. Not on my watch!
351
Scots Presbyterian Guilt Money?
348 it was reported that a number paid their bonuses out on Monday & Tuesday - not the RBS’s of this world but the smaller institutions. The law only applied from announcement so any bonuses that were paid aren’t affected.
332/343. So, from the local by-elections we might suppose that the Labour activist base is a little more energized than previously? That would contradict the reports one reads that the Labour organization is collapsing in many seats.
Nick, I think your point that an anti-Labour Tory vote “slips easily into abstention, especially in local elections” is probably correct. However, that’s a universe apart from abstaining in a GE.
Astate, I dare say you’re right that it’s moribund or thereabouts. I suppose I’m just surprised that anyone votes except the candidates themselves.
306 Thanks PtP, I’m on. Would it be a little harsh of me to suggest you are due a result, whereas the much-maligned and little in evidence STJOHN tipping service has a 2/2 score for the current season?
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5626653/the-unravelling-continues-apace.thtml
Why do I expect some Purnell “dirty flat” -esque stories in the certain Sunday papers this weekend?
If Cameron were to step down (for whatever reason), who would take over as leader/PM?
Will this be an issue in the general election?
McGuire moonlighting again on DP. Time for new voices?
BBC on ComRes
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/the_daily_politics/8407900.stm
358.
I would say George Osborne, ignoring the way he squeaks, he is a very intelligent and politically astute man !
I tend to ignore local council byelections. Of course, last night was disappointing for the Tories no question, but we’ve had for the past few years poster after poster on here stating Labour are doing really well and the Tories poorly in the runup to the Local Elections and each time Labour has done disasterously and the Tories rather well.
You can read far too much into these things. But, hey, I guess it’s giving Gabble a crumb of comfort.
359 - I think I can guess his spin on the unweighted poll.
McG claiming that the flipping is the worst example of behaviour - so no cards from Darling, Hoon, Ussher, Smith and other Labour figures.
354 Ted - A neat solution, which hardly required the intellect of Einstein to anticipate. It simply served to demonstrate just how leaden-footed this Government really is.
Nursery-age children should be monitored for signs of brainwashing by Islamist extremists, according to a leaked police memo obtained by The Times.
In an e-mail to community groups, an officer in the West Midlands counter-terrorism unit wrote: “I do hope that you will tell me about persons, of whatever age, you think may have been radicalised or be vulnerable to radicalisation … Evidence suggests that radicalisation can take place from the age of 4.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/crime/article6952503.ece
The police unit confirmed that counter-terrorist officers specially trained in identifying children and young people vulnerable to radicalisation had visited nursery schools.
359
That must be truly horrifying for ‘the Hive’ - there are no new voices…
Today’s Evening Standard front page is not what the Bunker Doctor ordered.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23782581-brown-overruled-darling-on-tougher-budget.do
McG suggests that future polls will push Lab Down and Tories Up.
362. numbertwelve.
astateofdenmark’s post 305 was interesting to me. I’ve felt for a while that the LDs do disproportionately well in by-elections because their activists care more, and travel from further away to help.
Meanwhile, for the Tories the only thing that matters is winning the General Election.
asod’s post seems to back this up.
358. Hague in the short-term.
Osbourne wouldn’t win a leadership election. Davis has learnt a lot and would stand a good chance.
Also if Boris rejoined the HoC in the 2014/2015 to 2018-2020 parliament and could get enough support from MPs he’d walk it.
370 - Is he feeling alright? Or still bitter than Gordo overlooked him for that spokesperson job by another posh lad and his taxes have been whacked up?
Great Guido caption piccy,
Do You Feel Lucky Brown?
http://orderorder.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/mandy-weapon.jpg?w=480&h=391
*** UNWEIGHTED COMRES/DAILY POLITICS JUNK POLL IGNORE AT ALL COSTS ALERT ***
O/T
Michael Schumacher racing back to the grid
Former champion gets green light for Formula One return
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/formula_1/article6952487.ece
I thought his neck damage was permanent?
Am I having another nightmare or has Gordon just pledged more money we don’t have in Copenhagen?
Re 372 Would the Labour election slogan be vote Cameron get Boris?
369 Frankly, after his would-be sacking in the summer and now being bossed by Brown and his would-be successor over “his” PBR, if Darling had any backbone, he’d now resign.
By doing so, he might at least save his own seat by doing so. What a wonderfully enjoyable irony were he to do so and “So What” were to lose his!
291. Biofuels are both completely immoral, and completely trivial in terms of reducing dependence on fossil fuels.
The maths are bog standard. Take the UK, and take biodiesel. There are 66 million acres of land in Britain. About 25% is arable farmland. Switch the whole lot over to growing oilseed rape and you’d have 16 million usable acres. A typical UK yield for diesel per acre is about half a tonne of fuel, so per annum, the entire UK arable business could produce about 8 million tonnes of diesel*.
The UK consumes about 90 million tonnes of liquid fuels a year, however. So even if the entire industry switched to growing diesel, which it never will, we’d still need another 82 million tonnes from somewhere else.
Plus, of course, the crop yield from those acres is no longer available as food. So we’ll need to buy that food from somewhere, meaning in reality we’ll outbid someone for it, who outbids someone poorer than themselves, who outbids someone poorer than themselves. Eventually the very poorest people whose bid for food crops is the lowest find that theirs is the food that’s not being produced any more, because car drivers bid more for it than they can afford to.
If you produce biofuels, it inexorably means that poor people somewhere will die of hunger so bien pensant Guardian-reading w4nkers can feel all smug, virtuous and green as they drive their biodiesel-guzzling 4-litre 4×4s around Islington.
Dogs bark, cats miaow, Labour buggers the economy and biofuels cause dead brown people.
* The economics don’t work at a farm level either. The average UK farm is about 160 acres. The average UK biodiesel crop would thus be worth about £14,000 a year on ballpark current diesel prices.
358. David Evershed December 11th, 2009 at 12:01 pm
I can’t see it being an issue because there’s no reason to expect Cameron to step down in the next Parliament.
As to who might succeed him, the favourite never seems to win the Conservative leadership (and always wins the Labour leadership) so, er, someone unexpected.
Where is Tim to promote Grayling?
379 Apols for all the doing/do so’s!
@372:
Potential future leaders: Boris, Philip Hammond, Mark Francois, Justine Greening.
Police issue image of alleged assassin arrested outside Blair’s home.
http://order-order.com/2009/12/11/friday-caption-contest-do-you-feel-lucky-brown-edition/
369. Oh dear. Some economic illiteracy in the comments there:
“A few points:
- You don’t elect a prime minister, you elect a party. So will people please get over this ‘illegal leader’ nonsense
- The whole point of socialism is that the state helps everyone. They aren’t a Tory government so of course they aren’t just going to shaft the whole national set up on behalf a a bank balance.
- Every country is always in debt, even in the good times. This is how it works.
- I think all here will be very surprised at how close the next election will be.
- Fed Up With The Brown Bashing, London”
Is it Gabble?
Given, that some people accuse Cameron of being a lightweight, surely the next Tory leader will have to be a heavyweight, so it’s between Eric Pickles, Ken Clarke and Nicholas Soames.
124 (continued)
I do not particuarly care for those who will just reject what I have said but the truth is that under Labour (whom I do not even support) the majority of schools have improved drastically.
I simply do not trust the Tory government to look after our education system. Under Major, during my earlier years of education, it wasn’t TERRIBLE but it really was not great. The majority of my lessons were in “Mobiles” as they were called and these rooms were not heated properly and it generally was not very pleasent.
I am willing to give Cameron a chance to prove himself but I still do not trust the Tories on Education.
383 Martin C - Plus Michael Gove
387 - (whom I do not even support)
@383: I adore Justine Greening and Hammond is exceptional but I’m not sure either are leadership material.
Marc Francois would be a very interesting choice. I could see him as leader.
I expect the answer actually lies in the PPCs coming through who we haven’t “heard of” yet.
387. Joshua: under Labour (whom I do not even support) the majority of schools have improved drastically.
I’m not sure if they taught you logic at your school, but if they did you’ll instantly be able to see the problem with your statement “My school is ranked pretty averagely and gets average results year on year but one thing that they have had since I’ve been there (and since 1997) is lots of funding.”
Lots of funding => average results.
Brilliant.
383 - You’ve missed of two people off that list.
1) Nick Herbert
2) The Lovely Chloe Smith.
Apparently someone else is a Nokia thrower
“Fifteen hours later paramedics were called to his home in Orlando, Florida, after he crashed his car while fleeing his wife, who allegedly caught him texting another of his rumoured mistresses, Rachel Uchitel. According to Star magazine, she threw his mobile telephone at him so hard that it knocked out one of his teeth.”
249 I noted in the PBR that Darling claimed Britain was a world leader in Green technology - no-one queried him on this.
If I recall in the Green Tech investment stakes, Britain comes somewhere like 35th, just behind Turkey
As usual we’re “best placed…”
The rumours about Alistair Darling being overruled by Gordon Brown would explain why the Chancellor gave such a lacklustre speech.
@380: Yup. Biodiesel is a scam as currently constituted. It’s really another state subsidy for farming which happens to contribute to deforestation abroad and rising global food prices so that the poorest starve as handy side effects.
The only biodiesel approach that looks like is has any hope of being realistically viable in the real world is biodiesel from algae, but right now no one knows how to scale production up to the levels which would be required to meet current fuel demands: keeping the plant sterile so that the most productive algal species can be used is very tricky apparently: you need a sterile source of CO2.
387. Joshua December 11th, 2009 at 12:21 pm
What you say is interesting, but I don’t see how you can compare your personal experience, as a pupil, of 1997 with 2009 as you must be in a completely different part of the educational system now.
What I’ve heard, anecdotally, is that primary schools have improved a lot since then, but not secondary schools. What there surely hasn’t been is the kind of dramatic improvement across the board that Tony Blair originally promised.
Regarding the actual buildings: it’s possible to be well-taught in a crap classroom. At least I was, at times, back in the 70s and early 80s.
[380] - If you produce biofuels, it inexorably means that poor people somewhere will die of hunger so bien pensant Guardian-reading w4nkers can feel all smug, virtuous and green as they drive their biodiesel-guzzling 4-litre 4×4s around Islington.
I agree with everything you wrote, though I should add that the main push for biofuels now comes from US agribusiness. Climate policy is being run in the interests of corporate welfare.
I suppose Guardian-reading muesli-munchers are an easier target for you than big business. I’m sure you don’t think of yourself as spineless, but, if the cap fits…
387. Of course, Labour spending has meant nice warm classrooms and interactive whiteboards:
in exchange for making A Levels worthless, university education dumbed down, the national curriculum a joke and a home-grown skills shortage.
On balance, I think I’d take the drafty classrooms.
383. Adam Afriyie? The first BME PM will be a Tory because Conservatism is a meritocracy. There’s a structural reason why all the women and BMEs in the PLP are all such utterly useless cnuts. It’s because they’re only there to meet a quota.
387. You appear to be conflating the quality of school buildings with the quality of education available within them. The evidence is that educational achievement is improvement is unconvincing. Getting worse, maybe.
Also, of course, none of the improvements you’re glad of has been paid for yet. It’s all been funded out of borrowed money which you and I are going to have to pay back. At the moment, your share of the bill is £23,000. Mine is £96,000 because there are four of us and I’m the earner. Hope you think it was worth it.
LD GAIN FROM CON
Bearsden South ward, East Dunbartonshire
There’s a great comment on the Guardian website’s article about rows between Brown and Darling regarding the PBR:
Look on the bright side, in years gone past Brown didn’t even let Blair know what was in the budget. Now the Treasury and Downing Street are talking to each other. That’s progress, no?
Hat-tip ‘Koolio’
390. Agreed.
I doubt the next Tory leader is even in the Commons yet.
The same is true, I’d have thought, for the next Labour Prime Minister (should there be one).
401. h/t ‘Jenni’
http://www.vote-2007.co.uk/index.php?topic=3812.135
393. Plato December 11th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
Nokia’s share of the US smartphone market is tiny. I think it must have been an iPhone or BlackBerry. Probably the latter.
Stuart Dickson,
I have to agree with your earlier comment that the Scottish polls (or Scots sub-samples of national polls) indicate that the Tories seem to be stalling north of the border. As a Scots Tory, I would probably settle for us winning just three or four seats next year as a (very) small step in the right direction, although six or seven ought to be the target.
I’m hoping, though, that the Tories in East Renfrewshire go big on Jim Murphy being exposed as a ‘flipper’ in the latest expenses revelations. That could make all the difference in a seat that looks - but from a Tory perspective shouldn’t be - too close to call. Do you agree?
87
Gosh, yet another Labour apologist on pbc who does not actually support Labour.
Some other unkind soul on Guido did a search at Ferryhills Rd, North Queensbury on 192.com , and found that their electoral roll search shows
Electoral Roll 2002-09
Gordon Brown Age guide: 50-54
Ferryhills Road, , , Fife, View Address
Other occupants: Sarah J Brown
So where does Gordon vote?
“Ashay Ghai wins Bearsden by-election”
“WINNER of Thursday’s crucial Bearsden South by-election is LibDem Ashay Ghai.
He defeated Rachel Higgins for the Scottish Conservative and Unionists…”
http://www.bearsdenherald.co.uk/news/Ashay-Ghai-wins-Bearsden-byelection.5904960.jp
Other ideas:
Adam Afriyie, Conor Burns, Damian Hinds, Steve Barclay, Helen Grant, Priti Patel and Rory Stewart.
(ok - I am guessing but all would make very interesting leadership candidates. I will take 10% betting commission please)
369 On the Brown over-ruled Darling stories.
Michael White was at the Treasury last night along with Robinson and other media folk, great and good of the analyst and financial worlds for drinks and a chat. Alistair Darling was circulating with his SpAds (including Sam White “one of my children works for the chancellor nowadays” points out Michael).
Michael White is very careful to make it clear he only spoke briefly to the younger White and Mr Darling, and of course received no information regarding PBR.
Its clear though where the stories reported by other commentators came from.
378. Only if they want the Conservatives returned to government again.
Net gains in last night’s local by-elections:
LAB +4
CON -4
LIB +1
BNP -1
I’m off in a while to a Cameron Direct. I’m signing people in at the door, so will be able to stay and watch it (members aren’t allowed to attend).
It will be interesting to see one live.
* Betting Post - Cheltenham - The PtP Occasional But Superior Tipping Line*
1.50 - Kia Kaha - 1pt ew - 7/1
3.00 - Maucaillo - 1pt ew - 11/1
Tipped earlier - 1.15 - Sizing Australia - 1 pt ew - 7/1
Toodle pip.
392. Robotic? Or just inexperienced?
FANTASTIC legs - it just has to be said. Eyebrows a tad too thick.
414 - Where it is this evening?
398 Timothy, I think you would find that US agribusiness wouldn’t be pushing at an open door if there weren’t greenies on the other side holding it ajar for them.
I don’t recall any US MNCs bigging up climate change and renewables as things consumers ought to be worried about.
Gavin Barwell and Shaun Bailey are two PPCs in London who will be flyers if they get elected.
400. This is why the left love Obama. They class him as a ‘true’ minority national leader because he comes from the left where all is nice and rosy and equal and all that bumpfh.
(Never mind that in the US meritocracy is ingrained into the national consciousness and I’m sure Obama has a similar view on it to many European right-wingers).
Labour secretly loathe the fact that the first female Prime Minister in this country came from a right-wing party. They hate it. They make excuses and say Barbara Castle should have been the first, but whose fault is that?
Consider all the misogyny and hate Labour supporters throw at Thatcher. They’d have a field day screaming about equality and sexism if that kind of scorn was piled on a hypothetical female Labour leader.
416. What’s this about Nick Herbert’s legs?!
401. Mike - can these excessive emboldened headlined stop-the-presses local election posts by Gabble be regulated please?
I’m sure you wouldn’t want us Tories doing this in reverse. And, funnily enough, we don’t.
416 - Sorry, who has fantastic legs? Herbert or Smith?
I must say, all the Tories here seem to be having far too much fun speculating on leadership contenders. A couple of poor result in Dunbartonshire and Weymouth and you people go to pieces
@410:
Could we see our first openly (gay) party leader?
421. lololololololol!!!!!
I can’t see anyone on pb.com wanting to sleep with Mr. Herbert!
422 - Personally, I find the local council by-election results interesting, though they should be taken with a pinch of salt and I’d prefer them posted as a single consolidated version. If I remember correctly, Sean Fear used to do a regular slot on them. They are clearly of constituency betting relevance if handled properly.
422. Casino Royale
I suspect it’s the content that’s distressing you, rather than the format.
405
A better class of weapon!
Having seen neither Nick Herbert’s or Chloe Smith’s legs, I’m not sure.
Is interesting that I’ve backed 14 people to be next Labour leader, but only 3 people to be next Tory leader.
422. Imo it’s just ramping, and people from all parties do that.
It is, perhaps, a particularly crap form of ramping though
424. Yes.
@425:
ris?
Mr Herbert’s not an unattractive gentleman.
427.
No it really isn’t mate.
What part of “everyone things you’re a wankshaft” don’t you understand?
The Wall Street Journal reports that two years ago it cost $5,000 per year to insure $10 million of British government debt against default for three years. It now costs $52,000 to buy such insurance — and $72,000 to cover that risk for five years. That is $30,000 more than it costs to insure BP’s debt, and $50,000 more than to insure Germany’s. So the markets think it is more likely that UK plc will default than BP plc. Or McDonald’s. Or Gap.
That means the markets think Britain is three times more likely to default on its debt than Germany. And the cost of insuring our debt has risen by 1000% in two years. At least we’re leading Europe on one measure…
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/12/cost-of-insuring-british-govt-debt.html
424 - That’ll be Nick Herbert.
Although if Peter Mandelson becomes Labour leader by the end of the month, he’ll be the first, and I win a rather large amount of cash.
(It’s not going to happen is it?)
424 - Nick Herbert? Mike Freer and David Gold are gay PPCs I know of, but don’t know much about.
384. Best comment so far:
“We can have the full consignment delivered to the Russian’s yacht on Tuesday Mr. Mandelson.”
For those who are interested - webcast debate at 13:30 today here between…
Mark Maslin is a leading climatologist and director of the UCL environment institute. Maslin has a particular interest in past global and regional climates (more details here)
There is also, however, a small but powerful lobby that disputes the majority’s findings. Richard Lindzen is Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Lindzen is known for his work in the dynamics of the middle atmosphere, atmospheric tides and ozone photochemistry and for challenging the consensus on anthropogenic climate change. He will be joining the debate to give an informed voice to the counter-argument.(more details here)
http://timesonline.typepad.com/science/2009/12/fight-club-live-is-mankind-responsible-for-global-warming.html
Please don’t mock me, but a few years ago, I was convinced Alan Duncan would be
1) The first open gay party leader
2) Would be the man to lead the Tories to a landslide election victory.
I’m scared I may have cursed Nick Herbert’s chances now.
I’d like it if we had a gay leader before Labour, just so we can rub lefties stupid faces in it.
376, my understanding was that it was taking a long time to heal but wasn’t permanent.
So two snap polls. Saying we love the PBR but we trust Osborne/Cameron to run the economy more than Darling/Brown. Cable/Clegg have improved and regardless of what the consensus on here is, Cable is an asset to the party. Can we really read anything into them? I doubt it.
O/T but sad news today with the retirement of Ashton. I saw him many years ago when he played at Crewe and thought he would go somewhere. It’s sad when a career is cut short so early on.
@439:
There was no way you could have known he would to turn out to be a smug tool.
I’m hugely disappointed with Darling over the PBR. After the way he stood up to Brown during the reshuffle, I’d every hope that he would put the national interest before party interest and deliver a PBR that would seriously set the landscape for the cuts that we all know we need in addition to doing the inevitable political shots. I’d also hoped that the stealth and deception that were hallmarks of Brown’s budgets would be consigned to the bin in these desperate times. Whilst I’m not a Labour supporter I’ve always considered Darling a fundamentally decent bloke that was genuinely trying to do his best for the nation.
However, he’s just embarrassed himself with a PBR that has unravelled more or less immediately and has done little to address the deficit. What cuts are apparently proposed are hidden in the small print whilst Brown and Balls continue to trump Labour investment versus Tory cuts in message if not using those precise terms. Darling’s uninspirational delivery was ample evidence that he simply did not believe in what he was presenting. Further, his “broadly flat” description of non ring fenced departmental spending was cringeworthy. He’s effectively prostituted himself for narrow party interest.
If Darling is the bloke I thought he was and if he has any honour he should now resign in the national interest and do his utmost to prevent the madmen Brown and Balls doing even more damage to this country and its people.
440 And I think it perfectly possible. After all the Conservatives had the first woman leader.
440 - Agreed, Ideally if he or she was Black or Asian too, It would be a double bonus
439 - Is there a price on Warsi? She really seems to have upped her game recently and if the resign from the Lords legislation goes through and she can get a good seat I expect her to go far. The first Muslim PM perhaps? To add to the first woman PM. Mind you don’t ask the Minister for Equality - they tried to downplay that achievement.
On the locals, I asked last night if the turnouts were up or down. Does anyone know?
[418] - US agribusiness wouldn’t be pushing at an open door if there weren’t greenies on the other side holding it ajar for them.
John R, why bother writing that stuff when a brief look on google demonstrates you are simply regurgitating your own prejudices? There’s a clear difference between what US environmentalists are saying about biofuels, and what US politicians, egged on by the agribusiness lobby, are actually doing.
So it’s clearly your own prejudices that lay the blame for this at the door of Guardian-reading sandal-wearers.
See, for example:
http://knowledge.allianz.com/en/news/viewdetail/water_biofuels_usa.html
“U.S. environmentalists fear that biofuel production could even trigger a water crisis.”
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=18800996
“When U.S. politicians talk about biofuels, most of the time they are talking about ethanol made from fermenting corn. However, there are many other types of biofuels, including biodiesel from algae and cellulosic ethanol technology.”
427. Gabble December 11th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
“I suspect it’s the content that’s distressing you, rather than the format.”
No, honestly, it’s the format.
The information itself is real and valid. It’s the excerpting of one result after another that is irritating. I guess your idea is that it will create the impression of unstoppable Labour momentum or something, but it’s just intrusive and tiresome. We know: there were some local by-elections yesterday and the Tories lost four seats. If you think it presages a swing to Labour at the GE, go and bet on it because if you’re right you could make a killing.
Like I said, though, there are rampers from all parties and imo one of the strengths of PB is its very light moderation.
445 - “After all the Conservatives had the first OPENLY woman leader.”
Edited for factuals etc.
Bearsden South 1st prefs,
LD 1770
Con 1499
SNP 972
Lab 626
http://www.vote-2007.co.uk/index.php?topic=3812.135
Lib/Lab pact winning here.
446. And disabled - and uneducated, illiterate and from a chav estate ?
Hey - why do they even have to be British or even speak English ?
444 - I think we have to be careful about all of these it was No.10 really stories that are flooding out of the Treasury today. After all, Darling is now unassailable before the election. If he’d really stuck to his guns, Brown couldn’t have risked sacking him, but Darling could easily have threatened to resign. That would have been catastrophic for the markets and even Brown knows if that happens it would be game over. Darling is now - to my mind - the most powerful person in the govt. If he’d wanted to, he could have used it.
@450:
Well, there were always those rumours about Ted Heath…
420 The first gay PM and the first Jewish PM (OK, converted, but Disraeli wasn’t exactly a WASP name) were Tories too of course.
Heath is perhaps a marginal case, because he wasn’t an ‘out’ gay, and furthermore, neither was he really a Tory - more a neosocialist technocrat with little imagination). Still and all, he ran as a Tory.
Labour’s historical leadership preference has been for middle-class, preferably Oxbridge, selectively-educated, white, heterosexual married males. I think it’s analogous with sepoys reportedly preferring to be led by white officers. Labour wants elite leaders, but hates itself and them for it.
That description covers all of them, unless one wants to go back to the 1920s or so, when they weren’t a plausible party of government. After 2010 they won’t be a plausible party again, so maybe they’ll break with tradition.
There is something of a correlation between Labour’s perceived fitness for office and its leader having an Oxbridge background or not.
Labour was patently unfit for office under Kinnock and Smith, and is perceived the same way now. In each case, the leader was educated at a hayseed provincial university.
IMHO Labour has always been unfit for office, but the intervals when the electorate share this view do seem to correlate with episodes of ineffective leadership by demonstrably second-rate minds.
Of course, it could just be that the leaders in question were perceived as flops simply because they were all Celts, rather than second rate. As the Welsh and Scottish register so little on English perceptions in general, this is probably just a coincidence.
453, I think you’re right that Darling could’ve threatened to resign and won the tussle with Brown, but he’s probably accustomed to being more compliant and may consider his modest victories as a good result.
He should’ve done better though. He does, however, retain credit for keeping Balls out of the Treasury.
Re the Dale link, the more I read of the real debt problems facing the country rather than the fantasy ones being promulgated by Gordon, the more I would like to see Labour win the next election with a narrow majority.
I really need to see Brown having to face up to the disaster he has brought on this country and be obliterated by the reality of it.
There is no way that he could continue to spend in the way he is at the moment to fuel the delusion that this is a pain free recession.
He is a matter of months away from the point that even Ocean finance would not lend him any money and when he stops paying the bribes to his core voters the retribution would be horrible to see.
A narrow win for Labour would see them obliterated and cease to exist within 12 months.
432. Ok. Chloe Smith would come several billion places higher up my list than Nick Herbert!
Deficit reduction plan detailed and considerable, insists Brown
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/deficit_reduction_plan_detailed_and_considerable_says_brown.html
Also in there is that France supports the Tobin Tax, the EU are discussing it and the IMF reviewing it. Apparently we have already budgeted for the Climate Change fund. How?!?!?
442 - Second that on Ashton. Before the injury he had everything to be a top top player. First saw him as a 14 year old tearing apart top U18’s teams like Man Utd. I have no doubt without the injuries he would now be the starting striker for England (with Rooney in and around).
Also, after getting some early attitude issues sorted, my experience decent bloke. Sent me a signed shirt, when I was laid up for several months with an injury.
I just hope he gets good advice on how to handle this and what to do next in life. I believe he is going to get a big pay out, so money isn’t necessarily an issue, but I think mentally when from such an early age it is clear you are going to be top pro footballer (rather than somebody who scrapes the cut at every level and eventually makes it) it is going to be extremely hard to deal with.
451 - Why is a Labour party supporter enthused about the Lib Dems doing well in a seat which they hold and where the Labour party is second?
@455:
It wasn’t clear the Ted Heath was gay either, he may just have been asexual. Something traumatic in his youth with nanny, probably.
Wasn’t there also some suggestion that Disraeli himself may have been a ponceyboots gaylord?
455. John R December 11th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
“Labour was patently unfit for office under Kinnock and Smith”
Do you think they’d have lost in 1997 if Smith had lived? I don’t, but I think they’d have had a smaller majority.
447 - There are Tory leadership markets but I don’t believe Warsi is quoted on one.
Leading contenders best odds:
5 Hague
11/2 Johnson
10 Osborne
12 Rory Stewart
18 Greg Clark, Adam Afriyie
25 Vaizey
28 Grayling, Kirkbride (?!), Fox
33 Lansley, Herbert, Hammond, Duncan, May, Villiers, Grieve, Gove, Maria Miller.
40 Andrew Mitchell, David Davis, Greening, Hannan.
Rest 50+.
Not sure it’s a worthwhile market as, realistically, you’re tied up for a while. But possibly Gove is best value (albeit he would be a terrible choice).
456 - Ah Mr Dancer, but our Ed Balls has told us he resisted the move to the Treasury… I really would love to know what went on inside the Treasury. I think Darling has been stung by the headlines, laying it onto him. Now he’s going for the sympathy move. Really a government in its dying throws is something depressing to watch.
440. We will. But because we appoint people on merit not background.
First Jewish, First Female, First Working-Class (?) leaders.
We’ll have the first buttsechs one too.
429 TSE Is interesting that I’ve backed 14 people to be next Labour leader, but only 3 people to be next Tory leader.
That actually says it all - in the Labour party there are so many schmucks, nebbisches, lowlifes, poltroons and scumbags that almost any of them could be in with a shout. The Tories have a few alphas, whereas the Labour party has no alphas, no betas, no gammas and then when we get to the deltas we start to find their smartest people.
461.
Because he knows full well, as do we all, that Labour WAS second in that seat five years ago but would be hard pressed now to gain third there?
464 - I’ll tip him again, but I have a small sum on Liam Fox at 28/1. In all probability, David Cameron will not be replaced for a long time unless he fails. If he fails, the Tory party will look to someone different from him with stature in the party. Liam Fox is the only person who fits that bill.
If David Cameron succeeds, it is completely unknowable who will replace him, and therefore not worth placing any money on that outcome.
460 - I saw some rumours that he was planning on suing the footballer who tackled him causing the injury. I hope it doesn’t come to that otherwise training sessions are going to be pointless.
466. Hang on, hang on. You guys did elect Iain Duncan Smith you know. Still, I’m glad to know it was on merit and not his background.
462. Do asexual people actually exist?
451 - “Lib/Lab pact winning here”
Although in the case of that ward in East Dunbartonshire, the council is a red-blue coalition so it’s more “Lab/Con pact losing here”.
444 I’m disappointed in Darling too for all the same reasons - he had the whip hand and didn’t use it.
Numpty.
Tory Leadership Stakes Betting Assessment Best Prices
Based On No Change of Leader Until 2014/5
5/1 Hague - Bald,failed and strategically disastrous, think Archer.Avoid
11/2 Johnson - Not in Parliament.Avoid
10/1 Osborne Voter repellent, high pitched but should be shorter than 10/1 Trading Bet.
12/1 Stewart - Loner. Avoid
18/1 Adam Afriyie - Hasn’t put a foot wrong yet but price too short.Watch Odds.
18/1 Greg Clark.Safe Pair of hands.Best Odds if the posh lads really mess up.Consider
25/1 Ed Vaizey - Guaranteed place in Cabinet, posh yet not too posh. Trading Bet/Consider.
28/1 Julie Kirkbride - Will not be in Parliament. Avoid.
28/1 Liam Fox - Fantasist but overrpriced. Possible Trading Bet.
33/1 Lansley - Inept. Avoid
33/1Herbert.Overrpriced, slightly.Trading Bet.
33/1 David Davis - If the Tories choose Australian suicide.Unlikely
66/1 Jeremy Hunt - John Moore for the new millenium.Avoid
28/1 Chris Grayling, in from 40/1.The Smartest Giant in Town.Put your Mortgage on.
40/1 Justine Greening - Magnolia wallpaper.Single Sex Public Schoolboy Appeal.Trading Bet.
Ignore and unworthy of comment -
May,Hannan,Duncan,Villiers,Grieve,LetwinGoldsmith,Maude,Redwood,
458.
I am not sure anyone here is particularly interested in what Chloe Smith is doing on your list.
186: ‘…the tried and trusted Richard Nabavi who is saying that Labour peaked last week and are going to struggle from now until the GE.’
Yes, I’ll go along with that. Labour have had their best month in years. First there was near unanimous sympathy for Brown over his botched letter of condolence - he cut a shrunken, meek and helpless figure and the good souls of Britain rallied round. Next Labour’s campaign of stating that Cameron and Osborne were corrupt, were planning to fiddle the taxation laws for the benefit of themselves and their friends in Chelsea, started gaining traction. Finally Gordon delivered some prepared gags at PMQs without mucking up. Alas, the letter of condolence is now long forgotten, the corruption charge was foolishly turned into a Maquire-ite vendetta of class hate and spite, and Brown’s PMQs performances where subsequently found to have been riddled with lies. Then came the PBR and the death of a nation. All downhill from here.
More classics from the Friday Caption Competition on Guido:
“To your left Lord Mandelson, you will see your new “Helmand” Suit. General Melchiot will be your escort as far as Kandahar.”
“If it doesn’t shoot dum-dums it’s no use to me.”
“I need your boots, your keys, and your motorcycle…”
472, yes. It’s not common, of course, but does occur. You could argue that Pitt the Younger was one such man.
469.
“I have a small sum on Liam Fox”
Pile it all in pennies and he’ll sink into the ground!
472 - Yes, asexual people exist, it’s a bit like sexual abstinence, it’s not something that you do by choice, but by circumstances.
Do we get a Comres and You GOV poll this weekend?
472 - Yes they do. By and large, they seem to be happier than rampantly sexual people.
457: Don: trouble is we’d all be obliterated as well. So I want Labour wiped out next year.
481, you could argue in that way asexuality is the same as heterosexuality and homosexuality then.
Re 475.
33/1 Gove. Very clever but signs of cackhandedness,Watch odds.
I see the Sun has another good headline today:
“Day After We Were Screwed on Tax
DING DONG MERRILY ON HIGH”
Quentin Davis is all over the press. I think the Class War is at an end…
481. Girls? What are Girls?
476. Oh sorry if I upset you wageslave, I left you off. How rude of me.
You would come 6,692,030,277th on my list, or the next highest after all the diseased and chronically ugly ones.
Sorry.
You forgot -
25,000/1 Tim Bot - Sad, obsessed, sniping fantasist. Extremely bitter. Worth a couple of pence.
481. So all equally cr@p and all to be “avoided” eh tim?
Thanks for the tips
485 - I was being slightly ironic there.
488 - Girls are little happiness destroyers.
Mr Screaming Eagles, who has been chaste since the start of October, and will be till the start of April.
481. That makes sense. I wonder if it’s more common in Britain than in other Realms.
483. You really think so? They’ve always seemed very boring and frumpy to me.
New market up at Ladbrokes:
General Election UK Turnout
Under 55% 8/1
55 - 59.99% 5/1
60 - 64.99% 5/2
65 - 69.99% 2/1
Over 70% 9/4
Arguably our greatest monarch was a virgin till the day she died.
Liam Fox is going to be one to watch if Cameron should form a government. Not necessarily in the form of a leadership contender, but someone who is going to be pivotal in political manoeuvrings, in my opinion.
463 Interesting counterfactual. I think on balance Labour would have lost again in ‘97 under Smith.
The supposed dream team of Mandelson, Campbell etc were all around at least two elections before 1994, so why were they so ineffective?
The answer IMHO is that Kinnock, Smith et al all set out their stall honestly and said upfront what they would actually do. There were certainly personal animus towards Thatcher, but there were few or no flagrant lies or personal smears; their campaign was always about policies.
Labour only really started systematically lying and smearing when Blair and his coterie got in, and that was how they won.
Major never evolved a strategy for dealing with that, and neither has any of his successors. All one can do is wait for time to pass and to expose the lies.
But a Smith-led campaign in 1997 not based on years of lies and smearing would, I think, have failed, unless the boundaries swung it.
Blair was a force of nature vis a vis Labour - after four defeats, they were always going to either disband or elect a liar. Cometh the hour, cometh the liar; he was there, so they elected him, and would have done so eventually anyway after a defeat in 1997.
470 - I hope it doesn’t come to that, but I think a lot of the talk is public positioning. I’m sure Ashton doesn’t want it either, he just wants the pay-out he is entitled to for the career he has lost.
I think there is a lot going on behind the scenes to secure the proper payout, and I think that particular story may be due that Ashton’s people and different insurance companies for England, West Ham & Chelsea are playing games of chicken with one another.
The problem is that the injury that has finished him isn’t clear cut. His problem started with the Wright-Phillips “tackle” (have read various reports and not always saying he was tackled more a big man fell over a small man who shouldn’t have been there).
However, he had an op, the specialists originally said he is going to be a-ok, came back, then broke down again. Another op, came back, broke down again, and now finished. The reason is due to the rate of degeneration in his ankle. The latest expert opinion now claim that this problem was caused by damaged caused by Wright-Phillips and the conclusion from the original op was wrong. Yes, it had “fixed” the problem for every day life, but not for the pressures of top level sports and Ashton ankle has been on a down-hill track every since. Obviously, there is some disagreement.
493. Poor you - that’s not fair
Do you want me to have a word with her on your behalf?
(I won’t say you sent me)
This is the one piece of Heath-sexuality related trivia that just sets the head exploding:
“Heath was a lifelong bachelor and perhaps celibate, although Monty Python member Michael Palin stated that fellow Python Graham Chapman has annoyed some hotel guests when drunkenly revealing he knew Heath was gay because he had slept with him.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Heath
Nice work Shadsy.
494 - I said happier. I didn’t say interesting.
496. What? Lady Jane Grey?
462 - nah, Disraeli just had suspiciously too much style
472. You’d have to ask tim.
495 - A very fair market with clear value in parts, if you ask me.
Is that what caused her demise, Sunil???
500 - It’s ok.
She says it’s my fault, the fact that her waist is nearly two thirds of a height, which makes it nigh on impossible it for her to do anything other than sit in a chair.
498. Smith would have won a majority but not a landslide.
Labours natural maximum peak position is 50 seats below it’s best even performance - ie. 360 seats.
Those extra 50 seats in 1997 and 2001 were down to Tony Blair and Tony Blair alone.
508. Well after 1603 it made the Union inevitable I guess…
507 Are you going to tell us which parts, antifrank?
503. They seem very frumpy and grumpy to me too - probably because they’re not getting any and hate men.
Nuns seem quite happy though.
Britain first gay PM was Pitt the Younger apparently:
http://www.johannhari.com/2007/05/30/britain-s-gay-prime-minister
509. Everything is always your (the man’s) fault in a relationship.
Dunno why we bother sometimes.
513 - Nuns seem quite happy though.
You’ve obviously never seen the edited out-takes of the ‘Sound of Music’
505 Was he know for his “collection of flamboyant ties (nudge nudge)”, as the press used to say of Jeremy Thorpe?
512 - Now that I’ve placed my bet, yes!
Two elections in a row have seen the turnout at 59.4% and 61.3%. While turnout might be expected to rise, given the more unsettled economic times, it seems unlikely to me to rise that much. The 5/2 on 60-65% therefore seems marked to me.
495 - I’m going for a turn out closer to 1992 levels, given what’s at stake for the country,
513 Have you ever noticed tht if you see nuns in a car, there are always four of them in it?
I assume it is because they fear the driver is going to do a runner…
“And coming up on Surrealism Today: Twocking Nuns….”
491 - Clearly not.
I wouldn’t touch this market with a bargepole, but if pushed Clark and Vaizey would be the two I’d go for.
496. I rather doubt that.
PtP tip for the 1.15 comes in second (Sizing Australia) - I got a little over break even for e/w.
508/511. Queen Elizabeth I was most certainly *not* a virgin.
No serious historian believes she was.
Disraeli was very much a ladies’ man.
Lord Rosebery, on the other hand, was widely rumoured to be caught up in the telegraph boys scandal.
518 - close elections drive turnout, too, though. shadsy has seemingly worked on an expectation of around 67% which seems spot on to me.
On the other hand, I am reminded of the old joke from 1996: “Tory education policy finally pays off as under 30s cannot read ballot paper”
If you watched the Dr Who Comic Relief special recently you’d know Queen Elizabeth I wasn’t a virgin.
520. Thanks. You’ve now got Eric Idle, Robbie Coltrane and “The bomb goes off in… FOUR SECONDS!!” in my head.
Along with *THAT* tune.
If the Tories are going to elect a gay leader, could they please,please,please do it while Norman Tebbit is alive.
498. Interesting argument. I disagree; I think Smith would have won, but as others have said, nowhere near as emphatically as Blair did.
By 1997 people had had 18 years of Conservative government and that, in the modern age, was just far too long without the pendulum swinging back somehow. I’m not saying they would have elected any Labour leader, but Smith, despite his drawbacks, was certainly Prime Minister material in those circumstances.
Whether we’d have had 13 years of Labour government is another matter entirely. Lots of what-ifs. Without a landslide people like Portillo would have been around. The Tory Party would have been very different.
529. Comments like that just tell me how little you really know about the Tory party tim.
Norman Tebbit has several gay friends.
525 Roseberry might well have engaged in mutual flagellation with the noted forger Sir Edmund Backhouse.
526 - I’m not expecting it to be close. I’m expecting a comfortable Tory win with a lot of Labour supporters sitting on their hands.
529 Would it be possible to measure the moment between the announcement of election of a gay leader and the spontaneous combustion of our Norm?
530 - A great what if is, what would have happened if Tony Blair has stood aside for Gordon Brown in the Labour leadership election in 1994
519. I think it could have been that high had it not been for MPs expenses. That will have turned a lot of people off politics.
I think it’ll be around 65%
531 Problem is that Tebbit publicly takes a position at variance with his private friendships.
531 - Tebbit is on record as saying a gay politician could not be Home Secretary, let alone PM.
535. TSE: A fantastic scenario - delicious!
Brown wins (narrowly) in 1997. Loses in 2001?
Oooh.. this stuff gets the juices going.
533 - I tend to agree and think there may be value in 5-1 for 55-60% as Labour supporters and the generally disillusioned stay away.
535. It would have been Gordon’s only chance of winning an election!
535 Eagles, Labour Leader John Prescott would have lost the 1997 election.
518 antifrank - FWIW, it seems to me that you can rule out less than 60%. Even in the drab days of 2005, it was 61.3%. Whilst the expenses scandal and general misery might tend to depress turnout, I think it more likely that anger plus ‘Time for Change’ will drive up turnout, at least from 2005 levels. (Locals and Euro turnouts have been quite high, as well, as have by-elections).
In addition, increased use of postal votes will boost turnout compared with previous elections, and activists on the Conservative side at least will be highly motivated to GOTV. That in turn might reduce apathy on the Labour side.
I’d therefore think between 60% and 69.99% is extremely likely. Over 70% (1997 71.2%) looks out of reach, though.
I think I’ll go for 65% to 69.99% with a saver on 60% to 64.99%.
475. tim December 11th, 2009 at 1:06 pm
Thanks, some interesting ideas.
The question is, in what circumstances would Cameron have resigned? Given your 2014/5 date, we can assume a decent (won’t try to define that) result for the Tories next year. But that still allows for scenarios in which Cameron is considered successful or unsuccessful in power.
Osborne will be a continuity candidate if he’s anything, so his chances must depend on a clear election win and successful Tory first term. Probably the same is true of Hague.
If Cameron’s government is a failure and goes down to heavy defeat in 2014/5 then surely someone from outside his circle is nailed on. They would have to win the grassroots ballot, which I think implies an ultra-Eurosceptic. I also think it implies not-Boris, even if he gets into Parliament.
Another possibility is that his government gets into trouble and the party changes leader before the election, in which case you might have a fight between a core-vote and moar-modernisation candidate with the latter winning in the media but the former getting the most votes.
536 - I think it will be high because of the expenses fiasco, as minor parties do well (UKIP, BNP, Lib Dems etc)
The other key factor, is that, because of the electoral system, the result of the election isn’t a forgone conclusion as it was in 1997, 2001 and 2005.
When there is something at stake, I think that will increase turnout.
537 Lots of people do, on a great many issues.
About ten years later than I should have done it, I’ve now got my firm’s website up and running, http://www.grahamfear.co.uk
537/538. One of his private friends has a good chance of becoming the first openly gay Tory leader.
Tebbit would not go public to denounce them.
546. Great site Sean.
If ever I have need for a solicitor I’ll be in touch!
523 Did you see the race, Harry? He went bloody close. Thought he was going to nick it, but not sure he quite stays out that trip.
Couldn’t have had a better ride. Sterling effort.
“Ireland, Greece May Leave Euro, Standard Bank Says”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aEx55g7XNj1E
I thought Norman Tebbit was into dressing up in uniform and punishment … :o/
Is this the Comres poll perhaps.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/the_daily_politics/8407900.stm
Tory lead of 7% on, ‘most trusted on the economy’ not that brilliant really!
Perhaps there’s more to come, voting intentions etc.
551: Thats Max Mosley..
539. Personally, I see it as:
Gordon wins in 1997 - majority of 60-80.
Blair and Mandy manage to stay prominent. Spending plans roughly the same as 1997-2001 under Blair, perhaps a little bit more ‘leftist’.
In 2001 Brown manages to get a majority of 10-20 (leadership style not great, we know his weaknesses, has p’eed a few people off).
2001 Parliament goes fairly disastrously. In 2003 Labour ditch Brown and elect Blair.
I think we’d have got both of them, just the other way round. Whether we’d have had Iraq is another matter entirely.
@552:
It’s an unweighted poll, and therefore, junk.
549. Fraid not stuck at work - 3/4L shows it was tight
Keep em coming - your tip didn’t seem to effect the odds
550. No they won’t.
The political implications for EMU would be too severe. The ECB will do *anything* necessary to prevent their exit.
Also, if Ireland and Greece did exit the Euro and start issuing their own currencies again the circumstances that’d have led to that being necessary would mean those currencies would almost instantly go into freefall.
Maybe Ireland could peg a new Punt to Sterling to mitigate - a sensible solution - Greece has very few options but to sweat it out.
556 LOL!
He got up alongside on the run-in, but the favorite has endless stamina.
552:
1) Putting your party allegiance aside, who do you most trust to steer Britain’s economy through the current downturn?
Brown & Darling 26% (34% in April 2009)
Cameron & Osborne 33% (31% in April 2009)
Clegg & Cable 16% (10% in April 2009)
Don’t know 22%
You do miss this part though. It’s better than April 09. Oppositions are always going to be at a large disadvantage as they aren’t in control of events and can’t dictate policies.
New thread up
483.
“they seem to be happier than rampantly sexual people.”
Tiger was reportedly very happy - till he got caught!
542.
“John Prescott would have lost the 1997 election”
Didn’t Tlacy Tempoor say he was fowever roosing elections?
518. antifrank December 11th, 2009 at 1:24 pm
I can’t it see it being lower than 65%. The intensity of the anti-Labour vote will see to that.
If Labour’s own voters are, in turn, motivated by the fear of a Tory government, we could be back in the 70s.
524/527. Yebbut she was the Virgin Queen, wasn’t she? Wasn’t she????
On Ashdown and General D.
1) I think Ashdown has been the only gay in the village for a long time and minds the competition.
2) There’s the why’s and wherefore’s over Afghanistan and there’s the military covenant aspect. Methinks Ashdown has got too focused on just one part.
3) ZNL smeared General D before he was pushed out so therefore they see him as a potential threat therefore he must be at least partly one of the goodies.
4) The politicization argument might hold water if his appointment was primarily over the why’s and wherefores of Afg but not if it was primarily over ZNL dropping napalm on the military covenant for the last 12 years.
5) Seems to me the ins and outs of Afg are getting decided through party donations so for people who disagree with it the only improvement can come from reduced casualties or at least a change in the proportion that are avoidable.
General D should be a big asset long-term - slightly lessened short-term through them messing up his arrival.
imo
554
Hmm.
Ditch Brown and elect Blair.
Don’t know.
Blair always rubbed Labour the wrong way.
Robin Cook though…
Feck, missed new thread AGAIN! “special” K poster award.
563.
Those in power write the history - or allow certain history to be written. She could well have been a bonking babe high on the Boris index.
Remember, Shakespeare would probably have been hung in his youth if he’d given Richard III a fair crack of the whip.
425. Could we see our first openly (gay) party leader?
Er we already have one. Our PM, Lord Mandelson
New market up at Ladbrokes:
General Election UK Turnout
Under 55% 8/1
55 - 59.99% 5/1
60 - 64.99% 5/2
65 - 69.99% 2/1
Over 70% 9/4
Posted by Shadsy.
What makes anyone think that this coming GE will have a 70%+ turnout?
I fancy the 60 - 64.99% myself.
I cant remember the last time turnout was over 70%. No doubt someone will jog my memory.
Found it 1997. 71%+ turnout.