Will the old firm be fighting it out in 2012?
December 15th, 2009
Could Ken be Labour candidate once again?
What are we to make of the stream of little reports that suggest that Ken Livingston might be manoeuvring to be Labour’s candidate for the London mayoralty in 2012?
The Standard’s Paul Waugh has blogged about Labour’s decision to appoint one of Ken’s key aides to the big post of running the party’s London campaigns and wondered whether a return might be in the offing. So should you be risking your money on Mayor Ken 2012?
He has shown time and time again that he is the supreme politician when it comes to dealing with his party’s structures.
It will be recalled that he was first elected in 2000 as an independent and then managed to get himself back into the party so he could be the official candidate four years later. The fact that Gordon Brown was opposed and someone else had already been selected was seen as nothing more than a minor inconvenience.
If Ken wants it then he’s going to be a formidable figure to challenge. He’s one of those politicians who transcend traditional party loyalties and in each of his three mayoral elections he’s won votes from right across the spectrum
The election is only two and a half years away and I’ve just had a small flutter at 14/1 with William Hill that Ken will once again return to City Hall.
Ladbrokes is offering.
Assuming that the Tories do form the next government then the election will take place about two years in when you can see things being very challenging. And wow - what a boost to Labour it would be if Ken returned.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Let’s hope so.
Onan?
first?
Though I can see lots of failed Labour politicians defeated in 2010 trying to secure the nomination.
4, hehehe. What about the ‘British Obama’ (David Lammy) trying for it?
Oh, bu&&er, I spend twenty minutes carefully crafting my reply to RodCrosby and a new threads jumps out. Anywa, here it is again:
I know it’s a thread and a half ago, but I’d gone to bed when RodCrosby posted in reply to my comment on the ’swingback’ theory, and this is the first chance I’ve had to reply. He said:
“The fact that the average Tory and Labour votes since at least Feb 1974 are near identical suggests this is so - and if it weren’t so, one of the big parties would have surely sought to change the electoral system by now…”
This is true (although you can argue whether it’s in either of the big parties’ interest to change the electoral system) but that has nothing to do with the validity of ’swingback’
I go back to Robert McKenzie’s swingometer. The point abouit a pendulum is that if nothing intervenes it will fall back to a neutral position, so that a Swingometer makes us visualize both parties trying to support it in an un-natural position - hoisted up to the left or the right, both fighting against gravity.
My argument is that, although that may or may not have been a useful analogy in the 1950s and 60s when the Swingometer was devised, it certainly does not apply to the political situation for the last thirty years, and that a closer analogy is the seesaw. The natural resting place for a seesaw is one side down, one side up, and to move it requires a sudden and decisive shift of (political) weight, and when it does move it is a drastic move.
Cameron has shifted the political centre of gravity onto his side of the seesaw, and we have to ask does Brown have the capacity to move it back again. He can’t rely on a pendulum slowly drifting back down to six-o-clock, as ’swingback’ suggests it will.
5 - No, no, no! It’ll be Obama’s bestest mate that’ll be trying for it. Dawn Butler, after she’s lost to the Yellow Peril.
What a sad reflection on our education system,
“less than one in five who qualify for free meals achieve the benchmark of five good GCSEs in English and maths.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/8414122.stm
It’s been clear from the day he lost that Ken still wanted it. Real question is whether Boris does.
7, Butler Vs Teather is like Alien Vs Predator: Whoever Wins, We Lose.
Whilst we’re remincising about Boris/Ken in 2008, It would be remiss of us not to remember what the Guardian wrote in 2008, I wonder if they’ll do the same in 2012
Be afraid. Be very afraid
Unbelievable as it may seem, Boris Johnson has a real chance of being elected London mayor today. Zoe Williams and other Londoners imagine what it would be like if this bigoted, lying, Old Etonian buffoon got his hands on our diverse and liberal capital
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/01/boris.livingstone
10 - I quite like Sarah Teather, and do believe that Dawn Butler represents the worst kind of gesture politics.
Assuming a Cameorn win, then I think London will get a more “generous” settlement than could be expected. The last thing they will want is a powerful Labour politician in London where most of the MSM is based…
What always surprises me is the complete inability of the LibDems to get any kind of traction in the Mayoral election - it’s not like they haven’t tried well-known candidates - and with the SW London collection plus assorted inner-London seats, you would have thought they would have done better than they have.
9 - I think Boris has always had his eye on Number 10 for years, and he sees the mayorship as a stepping stone to that aim.
I think he also realises that he may become the first major victim of Cameron’s cuts.
I’ve also had a small flutter on Ken at 14/1, but I don’t think he has a very good chance. Frankly, he seemed like yesterday’s man the first time round, but now he looks positively antediluvian, as well as bitter. Will Labour really want to run with such a reminder of the past?
If they do, and assuming Boris stands again (which I think is likely, although you never know), I can’t see Ken beating him. Even if a Conservative government is unpopular at the time - which I think is far from certain - Boris should be able to keep his distance, and anyway he seems to be utterly impervious to all attacks. What’s more, those who had doubts about his competence and capabilities appear to have been wrong; he’s proving a jolly good mayor.
Of course, one day Boris may make a gaffe too far; but, on present form, he’s avoiding serious gaffes and indeed becoming more popular.
Thus, I think 14/1 is a good long-shot punt, but I wouldn’t take PP’s or Ladbrokes’ 8/1.
I see there was talk on the previous thread, by one or two simple souls, of replacing George Osborne. Utterly ludicrous - Ozzy is the Tories’ greatest asset! Quite frankly I’m sick to the back teeth of these ‘dull but honest’ (dull but dishonest more like) bank-manager type Scotsmen the Labour Party has inflicted upon us for over a decade - an utter shower the lot of ‘em! I want a Chancellor with a bit of swagger, a bit of a sneer. These are the sort of people who get things done in my experience. We need a few heads knocking together in this country and Ozzy’s the man to do it. That bloke with the oddly coloured eyebrows has been nothing short of catastrophic. As to moth-eaten, demented Gordon… well, do I need to say anything? Ozzy rocks!
13 - The Lib Dem candidates haven’t been the most inspiring, Susan Kramer, Simon Hughes and Brian Paddick.
11. ‘Vivienne Westwood. Fashion designer
“Boris as mayor? Unthinkable. It just exposes democracy as a sham, especially if people don’t vote for Ken - he’s the best thing in politics. Unthinkable.”
Brother Brogan really isn’t a happy bunny,
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100019948/ba-strike-a-taste-of-things-to-come-for-the-tories/
It could be part of Boris’ plan to lose in 2012. That gives him a couple of years to find a safe seat (either at a by-election or the next GE), and get himself back into the HoC ready to replace a defeated Cammo. Handing on the baton from one Bullingdon boy to the next, as it were.
19
Oracle
I do not think the Conservatives are so naive to think there will be no strikes.
So far we have had: Post Office workers… back down
BA.. I suggest backdown..
There is always the Union modernisation fund to cut…
16. I’ll second that!
19: ‘Brother Brogan really isn’t a happy bunny’
He’s right not to be! British Airways - I hope it goes bust!
23
As BA has about £2 billion in cash, BA are unlikely to go bust. Unite are playing into Walsh’s hands.. He can afford a LONG strike. They cannot..
They can always find new jobs with RyanAir at 60% of their salaries and double the work…
19 Fools. BA staff are striking themselves out of jobs. I’d be amazed if the airline can survive another walkout.
11
Bianca Jagger
Campaigner (and little rich girl celebrity but we don’t say nasty things like that about lefties)
“As a human rights campaigner who is concerned about climate change, I am personally supporting Ken Livingstone for Mayor of London. He is committed to addressing the impending climate change disaster. I regard him as a ‘Mayor for Peace’: he opposed the war in Iraq and he opposes nuclear weapons. He doesn’t make decisions because they are popular, but because he feels they are morally right.”
How Guardianista is that.
25. I’d be delighted if BA went bust - a hideous, arrogant organisation.
Presumably who wins in London 2012 will also depend upon how many MPs Labour has after the GE? If they lose fewer than 20% then it may not be significant but could it be as high as 50%?
Mike.
Livingstone is definitely going for it
http://www.propertyweek.com/story.asp?sectioncode=297&storycode=3155133&c=1
He also claims that Mandelson is interested and hopes people will enjoy the sight of him and Peter “gnawing at each others genitals”
BA has nothing to do with the government…just let it suceed or fail. It’s not as if theres nothing to take it’s place.
Army fighting 2 wars at same time yet Ainsworth boasts of 10% increased spending on armed forces since 1997.
24 ‘As BA has about £2 billion in cash, BA are unlikely to go bust. ‘
I am amazed! Didn’t they lose £400 milloin last year?
32 - And now on for £800 million loss this year I believe. £1bn down on tickets sales.
25/27. BA are already cutting flights, and parking 747s in the desert. If their key business class customers switch in serious numbers to Star Alliance carriers, then the damage will be deep and long term.
15 - Boris beat Ken 53-47 in 2008, at the absolute nadir of Labour’s popularity when the Tories were 16ish% ahead nationally.
So a 3% swing in a rematch would be enough for Ken to win. Even if the Tories are doing wonderfully well in government, mid term elections are always an opportunity to have a grumble at the government of the day, and making Ken Mayor of London just before the Olympics would seem like an awfully enticing way of annoying a Tory government which has just annoyed lots of people by imposing massive spending cuts and tax rises.
Of course, Labour could mess things up and not select Ken, or he could decide not to stand, or the Tories could lose the next election, or they could win in 2010 with a tiny majority and call a General Election in 2012 a la Harold Wilson. Or the Labour Party could go bankrupt (but even then Ken might win as an independent).
27 Blimey that’s strong. I rather like BA. Good safety record, the pilots are great, the best stoical types. Would rather have one of them at the controls than most.
11. Classic stuff!
Always worth reading again when you want a good laugh.
And they wonder why that second-rate rag is losing £100k a day…
Blimey - talk of Cameron falling under a bus - his hotel in Kabul has just been suicide bombed according to Waugh
37 - But is it as classic as this?
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
If Ken Livingstone wins the Mayoral election in 2012 I’m leaving London.
Who’s with me.
25/27 - Presumably the union are assuming BA will blink, given the stakes involved.
It’s a classic piece of game theory, exactly as per the discussion of coal-mining on the last thread - every time it makes sense for the company to cave in to the militant union, yet this leads to long-term ruin for the company.
34
Of course BA is really insolvent - effectively due to a large pension fund deficit..£3.7Billion.
So the cabin crew are total numpties…
40 I’ll be there to wave you off!
FPT re Scargill.
Barnsley NUM arguably produced one of the the worst men in post war British politics, Arthur Scargill., and also one of the best, Roy Mason.
Certainly the former wrecked more lives than most and the latter saved more than most, yet Scargills obituaries will dwarf Masons and the sentimenatal pro-fascist left will have much to say about only one of them.
In 1976 there were 297 deaths in the province; in the next three years the figures were 112, 81, 113 and it was an IRA man who acknowledged that “we were almost beaten by Mason”.
Not surprisingly he was admired by many Unionists (although he had no time for Ian Paisley and loathed the loyalist extremists). But the greatest compliments to Mason have come from the other side. Even now Sinn Fein and the large penumbra of republican fellow-travellers in Ulster and Dublin spit at the mention of Mason’s name. And for why? Quite simply because, as Martin McGuinness said, “Mason beat the shit out of us”.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3604965/A-happy-80th-birthday-to-the-IRAs-most-deadly-foe.html
35: A lot depends on the next election of course. Who will be labour leader, and what authority they have. Will a beated Labour party want to go ‘back’ to Ken, or forge a new identity with a new face.
Perhaps Ken V Boris will be the leaders in the 2014 GE with them heading up the Real Labour and Real Tory Parties respectively. Could the electorate cope with leaders who actually believe in something?
34 Aircraft parking lot - http://www.airliners.net/photo//1623701/L/
On the BA strike issue I do wonder about the sense of the staff if the facts are that 1) The changed terms of lower manning are already accepted by BA staff at Gatwick, 2) Lower pay/pensions will only apply to new staff, 3) their pension fund has a £3bn deficit and 4) Their pay is almost double that of their competitors.
That said Willie Walsh’s team have failed to clearly communicate all of this to their cabin staff. Unite is not going away and exist because a Company fails to handle its workers properly over many years.
Maybe BA need to ask each cabin staff person whether they are going to work and then announce which few flights will be run. Can a Company simply lock out these staff from the start of the strike rather than the limited 12 days?
There must be a temptation for BA to hire new cabin staff, easier to train than engineers and pilots.
re 35. Before the Mayoral election the national polls were very much as today. ICM had 40-30 for instance.
It was only in the aftermath of the London and other local results that caused the big collapse.
41
As far as I see it, Walsh has nothing to lose by making the company go bust and a lot to gain.
Maybe Unite have not realised that..
38.
“his hotel in Kabul has just been suicide bombed ”
That Khammeroen will do ANYTHING to get into the papers.
41. Miliband (E) can spin the strike as the UK doing its bit to cut emissions from the aviation sector.
Big city Labour party is mostly Zanus nowadays and after Obama’s win they will very much prefer a black candidate. Livingstone seems likely to get the support of the other big faction but on balance i’d be surprised if he got the Labour nomination. Then again, being him he might run as an independent even if he didn’t.
My view is the most likely candidate is someone who ticks the most “similar to the Obamassiah” boxs.
35 donpaskini So a 3% swing in a rematch would be enough for Ken to win
Yes, but at the last election Boris was regarded by many as but an entertaining but risky buffoon (and by the Guardian as Satan). Assuming, as seems likely to me, that he continues to perform at least tolerably well, those doubts will disappear.
51: And the tasteless remark of the day award goes to…..
Ladbrokes twittering that they now have odd in over 200 constituencies.
Willie Walsh certainly did a fine job of wrecking Aer Lingus, he’ll do the same to BA.
And UNITE on the other side of the fence.
Iran vs Iraq.
Not sure whether anyone posted much about the inflation figures earlier on but here goes.
RPI was +0.3% in the 12 months to November 2009 compared to -0.8% in the year to October. No real problem then, inflation low and under control.
Not really. In the 10 months January to November, the RPI increased by 3.1%. Not too sure what will happen in the next two months, but petrol prices round here are higher than last month and we know that VAT will be going back up to 17½% on 1st January.
I had previously expected RPI to reach 4% early in the New Year but now think it could be at or close to 5%. This will obviously be in poor contrast to a 2½% pension increase and frozen personal allowances, let alone wage freezes or 1% increases.
But this will only be temporary so we are told. However, these figures are before interest rates start to rise again. And the PBR forcasts RPI up 3% in September this year and also 3¼% in most September’s up to 2014.
There is a real and growing risk that this will add further instablity to the economy. It is already a month too late to buy indexed linked savings bonds to gain the full benefit of the inflation upturn. But they are still a good punt against the Government losing control as it attempts to reverse QE.
55 - Oh, just ignore the child. He usually goes away after about 10 minutes.
16.Starkey, can I just say that you have been on sparkling form in recent days.
Roy Mason - top man. That rarity of rarities, a Labour man not devoted to selling out his countrymen.
48. Regarding the staff at Gatwick, I imagine that BA have the threat to shut down Gatwick operations as a bargaining tool in those negotiations (they may end up having to do that anyway if their business has to consolidate). The same does not apply at Heathrow.
54 Who do you want to open the Olympics
Boris,
Ken,
the Lib Dem
or Wolf from Gladiators.
63 Jonathan - A very good point, and of course a no-brainer. WE WANT BORIS!
54 - A lot of this comes down to whether Boris will stand.
If Cameron is PM and faltering then Boris may decide to go back to Parliament.
I didn’t realise how many Johnsons there were.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23783920-cameron-must-fear-the-rising-johnson-clan.do
44 A very fair post.
11. I thought that article (and the comments, and accompanying comments on CIF) were hilarious. Here’s what I wrote at the time.
“Last week, in Rome, a fascist was elected as Mayor. Today, a fascist has been elected as Mayor of London. The BNP endorsed Boris Johnson as Mayor, and no wonder. He hates black people; he hates gays; he hates women, the poor, and the disabled. Above all, he hates the rich diversity of peoples and cultures that makes London such a vibrant city in which to live.
Today, London is a city of fear. Fear of a return to the dark days of Thatcherism. Fear of a return to hatred, prejudice, and oppression. This man cannot be permitted to take office, and inflict his poison on the people of our great city.”
63
Kathryn Jenkins in a low cut top.
63 - I thought Jet was the Gladiator of Choice on PB
63 - Boris to open and close them.
Just hope he gets it in the right order.
66 - We have nothing to fear but Sean Fear himself
From a betting perspective has the government finally made up its mind wether it intends to extend the current Mayoral term to cover the Olympics and ergo have an election after them. If they are a success its a hell of a post coital glow to run for reelection on. if they go badly or the government has dropped the idea then its classic mid term.
63 – Do you mean opening the Olympics in an official capacity as Mayor of London or the lighting of the Torch..? If the latter, how about;
Morris Dancer with his flaming Trebuchet.
fascinating:
BBC John Pienaar: ” ’savings’ are on the way” - referring to the closure of RAF Cottesmore, the moving then disbandment of the Harrier Squadrons and the MoD redundancies.
I wonder what ‘cuts’ are, in the BBC lexicon..?
65 tim - It is unlikely to the point of being almost inconceivable that Cameron, assuming he wins a reasonable majority in 2010, will be ‘faltering’ in 2012 to such an extent as to threaten his leadership. In any case Boris, though very popuular, would by no means be a shoo-in if there were a vacancy. He’d have to (a) Become a Cabinet minister first, and (b) Not screw up in a position of collective cabinet responsibility, where his maverick style might not go down as well as it does as Mayor.
I think (b) is the killer. I can see Boris as PM (albeit a very unusual one), but it’s harder to see him as a minister.
69 Very good. I suspect the allure of the Olympics will tempt Boris into a second term, but I suspect personally Boris would prefer that term to last no further than the closing ceremony. The blond ego cometh.
66 - was that you, Sean, posting as a spoof? I think I recognise that turn of phrase….
The first thing ken has going for him is at the time of writing he wants the labour nomination more than anyone else. As OGH has written given what he did last time to the people that got in his way to achieve two terms This shouldn’t be underestimated. He is clearly gagging to get back and must have turned down a string of lucrative private sector stuff as well a return to front bench Labour politics. Cui Bono unless he’s definately running?
76 - sorry, *thought*
73.Bono, I am having a look at which constituencies are going to take the brunt of these cuts.
Wow, what a boost to my bank account if I won the lottery. Silly season is amongst us.
60: ‘Starkey, can I just say that you have been on sparkling form in recent days.’
Thank you very much! This recent talk of Labour closing the gap has energized me. Of course, in one sense I’d quite enjoy five more years of Gordon - I could just emigrate and watch Labourites suffer from afar: poor old tim having to do his anti-Kirstie Allsopp drudgery for another five years; poor old Gabble having to post yet another raft of links to vaguely anti-Tory articles - delicious! But then I think of what this great nation has given to me and I just can’t allow its fine folk to just sleepwalk into Armageddon without saying something.
76 It was a spoof, but it could just have easily been written by Zoe Williams, who I’ve always considered to be a less intelligent version of Polly Toynbee.
74 - If Cameron does the same job with the country that he did with ITV Digital it’s perfectly possible he’ll be unpopular, but if that’s the case its unlikely the Tories would turn to another Old Etonian.
82 Sean F - Did it get recommended by lots of earnest CIFfers?
73 The RAF is being savaged - I’d hate to think how may active front line aircraft they’ll have left by the end of this; maybe less than 100? It’s a good job there’s not a war on.
I fly a lot for work, including now about 17 or 18 trips to the Far East plus well over 50 return trips in Europe. My company quite understandably makes me go with whoever is cheapest.
BA has never been cheapest, not once, not ever. I flew with them to Germany once for complex scheduling reasons, but that’s the only time! I have an Air France gold card, and did have a Lufthansa one before their Korea flights went randomly expensive.
no idea how they are still in business to be honest, and I wouldn’t miss them.
No sign of MORI turning up then? If it doesn’t appear today then it means they’ve probably flogged it to a Sunday newspaper (probably the Observer) and that means it’ll probably be anohter poor’ish December poll for the Tories.
72 etc. The Olympics will be opened by the monarch.
79 - Alan Duncans constituency.
If it shores him up, there are no winners.
87 - There is nothing on Twitter about it. No rumours that I can see. I suspect they are currently trying to sell it. After all they are a commercial company.
74 - Richard.
The Seats market seems to have move on SIN and also the Ed Miliband leader market.
Or haven’t I been watching closely enough?
79
In liu of other psychotropics I will snort some nutmeg and..
NOW I SEE IT!
In my vision Tory constituencies will suffer mightily as Gordo’s wrath waxes great. I see wailing and gnashing of teeth in the halls of the blue party and among their kin, while in the fastnesses of his bunker the Glorious (and Courageous ™) Leader sniggers into his porridge.
Runs on rails.
Gordon Brown - the short-term PM who carried on three years too long.
90. I imagine fingers were being crossed as the numbers were run, hoping desperately for another ’splash’ result…
If Ken wants it then he’s going to be a formidable figure to challenge. He’s one of those politicians who transcend traditional party loyalties and in each of his three mayoral elections he’s won votes from right across the spectrum
The same can be said for Boris who also transcend traditional party loyalties; the bigger question is does Boris want the Mayorality badly enough to stand again?
I received my spanking brand new iMac an hour ago, after waiting in on tenderhooks all day for the bloody dispatchers to deliver it.
I’ll be unpacking and setting it up tomorrow and friday then I go away to my son’s for the weekend. So it’ll be next week till I tune in to PB again.
83 tim, why do you persist with this lie? He didn’t run ITV Digital - he was Director of Corporate Affairs for Carlton. I’m sure Cameron appreciates you bigging him up Tupac style, but it’s utter rubbish. Stuart Prebble was the Chief Executive.
Confirmation of the defence cuts:
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/ainsworth_confirms_raf_cottesmore_to_close_outlines_new_spending.html
The second thing Ken has going for him is that he really “gets” the whole ” Green, Left and Liberal” motif. If you look at some of his early big tent positioning he’s already playing with a realignment of the left months before the big defeat happens. I Imagine as soon as the general is over and done with he’ll turn his campaign into a laboratory of realignment. Although second preferences don’t look to have been pivitol in any of the mayoral elections i suspect thats because big beats have articially squuezed the others on the first round. That doesn’t mean picking up a wide spread of votes from across the centre left isn’t important.
87. Gin.
As I said earlier,it’s so obvious what is going on and what the media’s next move will be !
Expect the next Mori to show an even smaller Tory share than last time!!
The media is pretty much all Pro Labour/Liberal at heart and want Labour back in again ! You only have to watch BBC, Channel 4, ITV (GMTV)& Sky to see the bias. Democracy started to diminish in
1997 when Labour got back into power !
Best to start packing the bags I think and move as far away from UK as possible !
85.”73 The RAF is being savaged - I’d hate to think how may active front line aircraft they’ll have left by the end of this; maybe less than 100? It’s a good job there’s not a war on.”
The RAF is indeed being savaged, but that has already been happening up in Moray recently where we have two airbases. Words just fail me. Seeing the spin being put on these cuts, and the reason for it, sounds like this government have bankrupted the MOD.
You just have to look at what has happened with the Nimrods, Hercules and Helicopters during a period where they have been desperately needed in Afghanistan.
95 - wasn’t it his job to spin the utter disaster that was ITV Digital?
100 - He must have been very good to have been entrusted with such a difficult task.
100 - It was indeed.
And they had an amazing number of subscribers when Dave was spinning.
Nobody could find them however.
100
They had a brilliant Monkee..
102.Tim
Change the Cameron record FFS !
100, 101, 102.
ITV Digital never had a chance. Trying to fit between Sky, the cable companies (at the time) and the BBC it was always going to be a particularly difficult business to make money from. DVB-T is an almost useless platform for pay TV, but as we’ve seen has done okay when relaunched as Freeview.
91 tim - Yes, SPIN has moved a couple of seats in Labour’s direction today (I’d guess in response to yesterday’s ICM). Take profits!
I don’t think there has been any movement on the Labour Leader market for several days. AJ looks overpriced, but I suppose there’s not a lot of value left in selling him (and the mainstream bookies still have him as favourite as much shorter odds, which seems bonkers to me). DM should surely be easily the favourite now, no?
105 - Don’t forget they also paid ludicrous amounts of money for footy. Setanta just learned the same lesson.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/2009/12/overrated.html
Interesting blog from Stephanie Flanders. Basically saying that the UK has all but lost it’s AAA rating already as we’re required to pay higher rates on our issued gilts
102 tim, you seem confused. Are you suggesting Cameron was responsible for the collapse of ITV Digital, or spinning the subscription figures?
Back onto Boris. Last night Parliament voted to set up the London Regional Select Committee. I have to agree with ConHome, this looks like the Embarrass Boris Committee. Hopefully something that will last but a few weeks…
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/parliament/2009/12/labour-mps-vote-to-set-up-a-meaningless-talking-shop-to-be-known-as-the-london-regional-select-commi.html
106 - I suppose that depends on whether the Tory lead carries on dropping.
I would make Davd 4/1 Ed 5/1
The first thing Ken has against him is that the Labour 2012 Mayoral nomination will be viewed through the prism of the renewal of Labour. How does ken fit into that narrative? Well he would if he won the ensuing context but in terms of getting the nomination? Wouldn’t it be a bit like the attempt at a Clinton restoration? Doesn’t the basic story telling arc summon a young, ethnic challenger from the ether just because it fits? Ken would need titanium platted “change” and ” youth” credentials. I suspect he’s black enough already.
108 - Rating countries (especially substantial developed ones) is hardly necessary. It makes good news stories though.
From the cold wastelands of Barcelona it occurs to me that perhaps IHT and a fear of Osborne’s swingeing new taxes might not be the principle reason for the Tories diminishing returns in the polls.
Could the angel dust of Zak Goldsmith have contaminated Dave? If a Labour pantomime villain would look like Arthur Scargill a Labour one would be Zak Goldsmith.
Despite inheriting £200 million he tried to avoid paying tax on it. He got the Tory seat of his family home aged 33 without ever having done a days work in his life. I think there’s a pretty good chance some voters are making connections between Zak Dave and the ‘New’ Tories and it’s motivating them to vote.
108. A downgrade has indeed been priced in for some time. Clever of Stephanie to work this out months after everyone else.
Labour: lied about reason for war, experts bullied into suicide, helicopter budget cut, soldiers bleed to death in desert as result, economy destroyed.
Conservative: Hague wore a baseball cap, Cameron went to Eton and worked for ITV digital.
“Conservative Party leader David Cameron has been told to “shut up about marriage” by some Conservative MPs who say he risks alienating single parents and cohabiting couples.”
http://www.christian.org.uk/news/tory-mps-to-tell-cameron-shut-up-about-marriage/
107. not so much footy, as secondary footy in terms of what people want to watch; championship in ITV Digitals case, pricy fourth choice package of premiership plus a lot of lower league games for setanta.
i am sure MORI will show labour around the 30% mark. i think as things stand now the revatilise the core vote strategy has worked fairly well. if the election is soon enough the sticking plaster job of the PBR works they may very well get that sort of figure in the GE. i struggle to see how labour can get much above that sort of level though, unless the tories mess up in some way (which is not impossible, Cameron isn’t showing a great hunger to win in my mind).
but even at 30% it could be very close indeed in terms of whether there’s a tory majority, or more to point if it is a working one. much will depend on Libs and Others share of vote if that’s the case and on how targeted the ashcroft money is in the marginals. as things stand i see a tory win but significantly below current spreads in terms of majority, which indicate about 60-65. i would say about half that much more likely.
114 - Ooer!
OT Interesting article on US healthcare reform. Obviously written by a right wing opponent, but some of his observations about how the Senate dems are handling the process are spot on:
“Reid reportedly proposed giving the uninsured aged 55-65 entrée into Medicare, a departure from the program’s long-standing limit to retirees age 65 and older. This is a radical change that didn’t have a full and frank airing among senators, let alone a committee hearing. Reid wanted the provisions of the deal kept secret because - as recounted by Joe Lieberman - he thought they’d be “mauled” if made public. Who needs openness and legislative details when you’re remaking one-sixth of the economy?
“This isn’t the behavior of a self-confident majority secure in the knowledge that history is on its side. In fact, it’s panicked, weasely, and willfully careless.”
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/12/15/the_liberals_weaselly_panic_99557.html
117 It would depend where the Conservatives finished up. An outcome of say 40:30 would likely produce a fair-sized Conservative majority.
117 - Yes, ITV Digital paid £315m for 3 years of lower league football I believe. Never going to work. Who ever did that deal is the one that wanted shooting.
121. The story I remember is that for some of the games the number of viewers was so low it would have cost less to taxi them to and from the game and pay for their match tickets, than to go to the bother of televising.
Has this been posted - a mention for Mike on the New Statesman’s blog:
“Then there’s Mike Smithson, of politicalbetting.com. He warned those of us who kept going on about Cameron’s poll lead being far smaller than Blair’s in 1996 to heed only the ICM results (which showed Cameron’s Tories 17 points ahead of Labour in November 2009, and Blair’s Labour 19 points ahead of the Tories in November 1996):
“I say repeatedly that the only valid comparisons are with ICM.”
Tory bloggers like Iain Dale were - unsurprisingly! - quick to link to his analysis.
But, hats off to Smithson. With the Guardian’s ICM poll today showing the Tory lead down to nine points - the first poll by ICM since December 2008 to give the Tories less than a double-digit lead - here’s his admirably honest and blunt concession:
“I must admit that I got it wrong.”
Nice of you to say so Mike!”
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/mehdi-hasan/2009/12/tory-lead-brown-labour-cameron
121 ‘Who ever did that deal is the one that wanted shooting.’
I’m sure tim’s about to tell us…
121: Indeed. That was just idiotcy.
102 - I wasn’t exactly sure what a Director of Corporate Affairs was supposed to do; it sounds a bit Yes Ministerish.
120 Sean Fear. I still maintain these are the silly days of polling. Once the election is upon us and people have to decide whom they want to govern for the next 5 years, I see the polls more in the Con 41-43, Lab 24-27, LibDem 16-20 range and a Con majority in the 40-70 seat range.
Part of the reason I have Labour so low is that I think their support is softer in that it is concentrated in safer seats, so if Labour are not near enough in the polls to challenge for NOM, then many will simply stay at home. Thus the only game changer I see to a comfortable Tory win is if the Tories actively and significantly shoot themselves in the foot. So far, Labour have done what is needed to lose the election.
120. agreed strongly, that’s the other side of the coin what the tory share of the vote is, to what the LD’s/others take away from the tories (and potentially labour).
i pretty strongly think, unless their is a game changing event, which a credit downgrade or budget pre election might be, labour will poll 30% to within a point or two either way.
in which case a 38:30, 40:30 or 42:30 result say produces likely totally different outcomes.
i tend to agree a 10% tory lead would produce a reasonable majority (personally i don’t think tories will quite get to 40% subject to a game breaker/real squeeze on LD’s/others). the conventional wisdom, electoral calculus/pollsters etc. seems to be tories need about a 9-10% lead to get an overall majority. personally i think the tories may do better in the marginals, which ashcroft and others have targeted for several years, and a 7% lead or so might give them a basic majority.
Gabble, not a great advert for New Statesman editorial standards if they quote so outrageously out of context.
EdP, if it wasn’t Kirstie Allsop, it should have been.
Reading Stephanie Flanders’ blog makes me wonder if the National Debt is a bit like global warming: after a certain point it’ll be too far gone to do anything about it (or at least, according to theory). What happens to a country so deeply mired in debt that there is no way out? Increase taxes, decrease spending, try to borrow more, all lead to even bigger problems. Would we have to sell the family silver? How much would the National Gallery fetch? Or the Bodleian Library? Or the Isle of Wight? There must be something we can chop up and burn.
But something that he said, and I’ve heard this now from Labour people and Tories alike in recent months, is that the Cameron Conservatives really lack a big beast of an attack dog.
Oh my god, now its Grayling denial.
He’s big, he’s a beast and he’s an attack dog.
How can you doubt Grayling.
But wait.
Chris Grayling? The “pub ready” shadow home secretary is a protégé of Tory media chief Andy Coulson and was certainly supposed to provide his party with that attacking grit. But he he has struggled to such an extent that it will be a surprise if he makes the cabinet in the event of a Tory victory.
The smartest giant is a protege of the little bully.
Thats it, I’m finished with Grayling.
Jeremy Hunt for Leader!
http://blogs.wsj.com/iainmartin/2009/12/15/the-tories-lack-an-attack-dog/
They probably moved on to either buying US debt packages for RBS or negotiating sports rights for Setanta.
131:There must be something we can chop up and burn.
The chip on tim’s shoulder?
123 Gabble
You were posting regularly on that thread. You know quite well that OGH was talking about something else entirely. Very, very bad manners on your part.
132
As I have said before, it is my belief the Conservatives are holding fire until New Year.
As for the example Martin gave, Tebbit may have enthused the Tory faithful but he turned off everyone else in my view.
A GE campaign is a sprint for 3 months. Only a fool starts 5 months out - and before Christmas.
I suppose that’s too obvious for Mr Martin?
134. Slackbladder.
Better burn both or you’ll make him unbalanced.
129 - antifrank, I’ve doubted New Statesman editorial standards ever since someone let this slip through a couple of years ago: http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
132 tim - As often, Iain Martin make a good point. The Conservatives are failing to land obvious blows, and doing badly in parrying off Labour’s all-too-predictable smears and distortions.
They are being too nice, perhaps because they don’t want to be seen as nasty.
129 - Absolutely. Here’s what Mike actually wrote:
“After a response to the PBR that was almost wholly negative the party must have been hoping that the progress of Labour would have been stalled. Instead we see figures from ICM that are almost exactly in line with YouGov. I must admit that I got it wrong”,
All he was saying was he expected this particular ICM result to be different. Just proves that the Staggers and Gabble are both total to$$pots. But we’ve known that all along.
Labour have been focusing more on a core vote strategy of late. So the danger is that they are picking up votes where they don’t need them. The only other thing that I can see leading to a Labour revival is that people believe the economy is starting to turn around. However I’m not entirely convinced by that argument. Polls are a bit of a mess at the moment.
btw does BA have a death wish?
Reading the previous thread, I am convinced that the residents of Cottesmore and environs are overjoyed that the local airbase is being closed by a touchy, feely, Labour Government and not by the nasty Tories. They must be looking forward to all the State largesse they are now obviously entitled to in recompense.
Bizarrely none of the BBC voxpops have picked up the jubilant crowds.
139 - Remeber the story that Grayling was promoted because its what the Sun wanted.
“Protege of Andy Coulson”
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5638983/meet-farmer-mandelson.thtml
And to think the New Statesman used to be an eminent political journal.
123: as antifrank and John O say, that’s rather underhanded of them actually (or being charitable, they’ve misinterpreted Mike). It implies Mike was saying he got things wrong on whether the Tory lead was comparable to Labour’s in 1996 (at the time, Mike certainly wasn’t wrong).
Mike was actually saying he got it wrong because yesterday he implied he was expecting ICM figures more in line with ComRes than YouGov.
143 - Hmmm, only Coulson and Grayling in that post? You’re a Hague, Osborne and Goldsmith away from a full house! Must try harder.
138 Yippee! The thread’s less than 150 messages long and we’ve had the elite school of Brownian blitzkrieg posted twice already!
143 tim - Oddly, Grayling seemed to do much better at Work & Pensions.
Gabble,tim and roger on the same thread ? What have we done to deserve this ?
‘131:There must be something we can chop up and burn.’
Remaindered copies of ‘Courage’ by G. Brown.
Or £50 notes - at the rate the BoE are printing money they’ll be worthless soon enough.
151
I thought that cash for privy council, non-dom peer had bought them all.
The Chief Medical Officer for England, Sir Liam Donaldson, has said he is stepping down from the job in May.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8414791.stm
132. He tore the throat out of Dannatt pretty effectively.
Iain Martin would impress me more if it had taken him less than six months to realize that Alan Johnson had been made home secretary, and if he could spell his own christian name or rather christiain name. And what the hell is a ‘“pub ready” shadow home secretary’?
I see no less than Anthony Wells says the New Statesman are being underhand. Wonder if the New Statesman will apologise, correct or withdraw?
123: “‘I must admit that I got it wrong.’”
That’s an outrageous distortion by the New Statesman! Mike was clearly saying that comparing the preposterous Blair leads in the mid 1990s with the Tory leads under the new methologies was sloppy thinking. Mike is absolutely correct about this and his quoted remark was about something else entirely. Who is that fool at that rag? He should retract and apologize at once!
154 - I presume he means the sort of everyman politician who appeals to blokes down the Dog and Duck.
Unfortunately Grayling kept banging his head on the doorframe on the way in.
and Gabble knew all this and posted the article without comment.
Obama tells Oprah that he’s surprised his poll numbers didn’t nosedive sooner:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rmOUTFqbYs
His attempt to put an positive face on his current predicament doesn’t seem very credible since he asserts that impending double-digit unemployment was a major reason he believed a year ago that his numbers would tank… not too credible since his administration claimed last spring that unemployment would never come anywhere near double digits after his stimulus bill was passed.
159 S&S And the public are grading Obama’s job performance less generously than he is himself:
http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2009/12/15/how-the-public-graded-obama/
(Previous thread) Whatever happened to Scargill’s Socialist Labour Party he set up?
It is still going strong. It managed to increase its votes in Glasgow North East from a mere 4036 to a massive 47. It has a few hundred members left, but it also has a block vote of 3,000 ghost members of an affiliated organisation which means that Scargill wins all the votes anyway because he casts its block vote at conferences.
I believe that the SLP lost most of its active members in the London region when they defected to form the CPGB(ML) in 2004. There is an interesting account of the circumstances in which they left the SLP at the bottom of the home page of the CPGB(ML) : essentially, Scargill was breaking his own rules and ignoring meetings when it suited him.
http://www.cpgb-ml.org
155: ‘Wonder if the New Statesman will apologise, correct or withdraw?’
When the buffoon McIntrye accused Dan Hannan of being racist because he agreed with Jimmy Carter that Obama was the subject of racism they just quietly pulled the article.
157 tim, do you take the pi$$ out of other physical attributes such as disability or skin pigmentation?
Ken has seemed not quite right in the head since Boris defeated him. All that stalkerish behaviour and all those bitter articles, pretty twisted.
Well I’ve advised the New Statesman reporter to come over here if he needs educating about psephology, which he clearly does.
161 JohnLoony. LOL the CPGB(ML) does not believe that nuclear disarmament should be for everyone, only imperialist powers. North Korea should be allowed nukes, the UK and US should not. I vote we pay for all the CPGB(ML)ers to have free one-way passage to the earthly paradise that is North Korea. PS, no care packages once they’ve arrived.
120/117. Kalman filtered polls suggest a Tory lead of exactly 10%
Labour have put on 10% since the worst of Expensesgate, the Tories 2%…
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/hp/kalman.png
3rd generation of Benn socialist MPs moving second reading of Flood bill in H/C.
OT -
Gordo Super-Pyjama-man makes a flying visit to Britain
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6956529.ece
London election mid 2012 would mean selection roughly endish 2011, which might still be a honeymoonish period for a new Labour leader. Assuming they are doing reasonably well in the polls then I guess that the new leader will have reasonable traction over who gets to run and quite a lot of possible new leaders wouldn’t want Ken. If the new leader wasn’t doing so well then I think he’s quite a plausible candidate, but then if Labour aren’t doing well overall he’d quite probably lose. The odds seem nice enough but if you believe any of the above then it’s hard to get really entusiastic about the bet isn’t it?
I have some money on Ken. I’m sure I’ll be able to use the bet profitably later in the electoral cycle even if it doesn’t look like an ultimate winner.
I’m flying with BA on 24 December. Or not, depending on the outcome of strike negotiations. Fingers crossed…
153. Jumping before he’s pushed ?
Zillions to die from swine flu he said…
Mike, would you mind terribly suing them? It would provide excellent entertainment and also a few additional betting markets (though we’d have to operate those on the sly).
169. That is SUPERB!
Of course, we all know that losing Prime Ministers always fly off into an obsession with Foreign Affairs where overseas leaders are always so much more appreciative than the ungrateful voters at home.
OT : Been handing out Leader LAG money in North Yorkshire all day so have only just come to my computer. I identify the photo at the head of the previous Lib Dem thread as the Liberal Club in Kendal. Strange as it may sound I have actually stood at that window myself.
I am pleased to see Mr Farron has come to the Conservative view on the proposed extension to the Yorkshire Dales National Park and I look forward to my motion demanding a referendum passing South Lakeland District Council nem con.
This thread…comment /tim smear comment /tim smear/ comment tim smear’
In announcements like this, the MoD has to embark on an ad hoc defence review while it waits for the election and the next steps. But it’s worse than that. The figures don’t stack up. Something is going to give and in a big way. Defence is living through a slow motion road accident while it waits for the political wheel to turn and give it some strategic direction. This is a 1945 moment; even a 1918 moment, but no one yet wants to grasp it.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/defence/6819160/Defence-Cuts-Something-is-going-to-give.html
167. But Rod as Labour dropped much further than the Tories over expensegate, they have had further to go to make it up.
At this rate, Copenhagen will not only fail, it will be a disaster.
Of course, these conferences – especially high-stakes ones like this – never end that way. Some face-saving arrangement is always cobbled together. But the question now is when the phony war will erupt into open hostilities – and whether heads of state will be able to resolve them in the time they have left.
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/mark-lynas-at-this-rate-copenhagen-will-be-a-disaster-1841689.html
170 – Omnium, precisely, that sums up my sentiments on the subject of next mayor rather well imo.
167. Kalman shows Tory lead crumbling fast
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/hp/lead.png
166. I am well aware of what the CPGBML’s attitude to nuclear weapons is. What has that got to do with the split from Scargill’s SLP? Many of the leading members of the CPGBML have indeed been to North Korea several times; they have described it as a beautiful progressive place. Their point is not to emigrate to the DPRK but to build Juche-type systems in all countries. Each country has to develop according to its own hisdtory and culture.
179 Scott P. The Independent is wrong. International conferences do occasionally end in disaster, even ones deemed important. I was at the UN Third Special Session on Disarmament - it was not pretty. The final meeting started at around 9am on Friday and ended around 8 am on Sunday with everyone throwing mud at each other, well mainly at the US.
And here is a paragraph describing what happened at the 5th Biological Weapons Convention Review Conference in 2001:
“The EU proposal appeared to offer a workable compromise. Nevertheless, late in the afternoon on the last day of the conference, December 7, 2001, the United States said it would accept the EU formula only on the condition that the mandate of the Ad Hoc Group was “terminated.” European diplomats responded angrily to the U.S. move. Because preservation of the Ad Hoc Group mandate (and hence the possibility of restarting the multilateral negotiations when the political climate improved) had long been a bottom line for many delegations, the last-minute U.S. proposal blocked the consensus needed to adopt the politically binding Final Declaration. In a desperate bid to prevent the BWC Review Conference from failing completely, chairman Tóth suspended the meeting for a year. The Review Conference reconvened in Geneva on November 11-21, 2002.”
It appears we may be heading for a version of this ’suspension’ of the conference in Copenhagen, with a deal to review emissions targets at some later date rather than striking a deal now.
178. looks like they’re doing it!
Tories drifting down, failing to reach previous peaks…
184. While Labour are making higher highs all the time…
181 JohnLoony. “What has that got to do with the split with the SLP?”
The link you posted has a link to another page citing the reaons for the split with SLP. Cited there was Scargill’s insistence that nuclear disarmament apply to all, whereas those who formed the CPGB(ML) argued it should apply only to imperialist powers. Ie they cite it as one of the major reasons for the split.
162. I thought they’d joined the Peoples Front for the Liberation of Judea!
182 179
The whole thing is an absolute farce. We as a country have zero intentions of cutting cO2 emissions as required..
Politically which party would win elections promising:
Stopping all road building.
Discouraging the sale of new cars
Cutting house building.
Closing airports and stopping holiday flights.
And stopping heating houses in winter to more than 15C.
It’s a political no go..
Those are the measures needed to meet our existing CO2 targets.
181/185 JohnLoony. Here’s the link and the quote:
“It was also at this meeting that the first attack was launched on both Carlos Rule and the DPRK, the pretext for which was an article Carlos had written in Spark in support of Korea. During the ensuing discussion, as we destroyed his false arguments, Scargill absurdly claimed that the SLP policy of unilateral nuclear disarmament referred not just to Britain but to every state in the world. We demolished his Christian, petty-bourgeois pacifist stance, which equated nuclear weapons possessed by imperialist countries with those possessed by socialist countries; which equated the violence of the oppressed with that of the oppressors; and which demanded that the DPRK unilaterally get rid of its nuclear weapons, if indeed she had any, before he would carry out the resolution of the SLP supreme body, namely the Congress, in 2002. We pointed out that the logic of his demand was that the DPRK disarm itself and thus lay itself open to the same sort of attack to which Iraq has been subjected following the latter’s disarmament. Unanswerable though they were, our arguments did not endear us to Scargill and his cronies.”
http://www.cpgb-ml.org/index.php?secName=proletarian&subName=display&art=10
Memo to self - must taking writing style tips from these guys.
How come it will take nearly 10 years to supply our armed forces with 20 new Chinook helicopters.
This is really pathetic, worse than a third world country.
And more Tornadoes, Harriers and a large part of the Eurofighter order are due to be scrapped or not now ordered.
Leaving Britain, I wont say great, as having about 100 aircraft to defend the whole of the UK.
It’s good thing that we have no close enemies who want to do us down, but Labour has left these islands virtually defencless from the air. We also have a miniscule navy, so we are also defenceless from the sea.
What a pass.
re 185. Rod - Labour are down from +13 to minus 10 over just twenty-six months.
Anybody can play your silly games like this - you just choose the comparison that most suits you.
So stop making a further fool of yourself.
189 - So Dave Spart really does exist. Pity pbc doesn’t have a page 94. Or perhaps it does and is exclusively reserved for wage Slave?
You could probably get 1-2 on a Conservative Overall Majority if you asked politely on Betfair. This compares very favourably with the 2-7 you get by taking the best on offer with the Seat Bands.
I don’t see any prices on a CON Overall but am guessing 4-11 is best.
The thing about that market on Betfair is that you could make out a case also for taking 3.9 on a Hung Parliament. The(white) elephant in the room is the awful price of 13.5 for a LAB Overall. To put it in perspective, I took 12.5 yesterday on LAB 300+ which was far better value even though it is still not that great.
189 TimT
I was disappointed in the light tone of that communique. “Lick-spittle toadies” (as used in the old days) has more power than “cronies”.
Communists aren’t what they were when I was young!
The one reality is that Tory vote is holding up at, at least 40%, it has hovered around there. It has been fairly constant.
Labour and the libdems are the volatile ones, Labours anywhere from 24 to 31 and libdems anywhere from 17 to 23.
If its that volatile, it says core support is bad.
Any tweets on the polls yet?
Looked at Con Home and for anyone wondering why southern Tories are extra annoying, Tim Montgomery says.
Taken my godson to buy a Liverpool FC souvenir and then to Fortnums!
I particularly liked “Christian, petty-bourgeois pacifist” as an insult.
193 URW - I have a very large red number next to that 13.5 on Lab Overall, and have never seen a price at which I wished to reduce it. It should surely be around 25.0 at least?
196 - But that’s exactly how I remembered the Rev Arthur in 1984/5.
191 - Mike, have you complained to the Staggers?
196 antifrank - Still, you can’t really fault their conclusion: We pointed out that the logic of his demand was that the DPRK disarm itself and thus lay itself open to the same sort of attack to which Iraq has been subjected following the latter’s disarmament.
A conclusion which Iran has unsurprisingly also reached.
197 - further to my post, I recall making the case that the price should be 14.0 when it was 8.0, which suggests that a multiplier of around 1.75 is generally in order
12, Teather irritates the hell out of me. Sanctimonious buffoon.
63, Jet from Gladiators. PHWOAR!
194 oldnat
In the bad old days, I remember being lectured at dinner so much by a Czech colleague about how our nasty capitalist policies killed children that my Polish colleague told him to shut up so we could all enjoy our food.
197 Aaron. If Labour get an Overall I’m leaving the country via the backdoor, losing an absolute fortune and with a shattered reputation.
Just like you I have never been tempted by a price to bail out on.I have been nibbling at silly things like that 300+ at 12.5 but only for shirt buttons.
All I am ever tempted to do is to increase the liability by Backing NOM (took 4.1 yesterday) and a CON Overall.
Ken Livingstone, oh please god no, can’t he just leave us all alone.
Ref Roy Mason
I was serving in NI when he was in charge and one night we had to fly him from Stormont to Aldergrove to catch a flight back to London. He was delayed and this meant that we would miss Top of the Pops and more importantly Pan’s People.
When he eventually turned up he asked me how I was and I replied, “Fine Mr Mason but do you realise we are missing TotPs? He just laughed and replied ,” But I’m Top of the Pop’s.” A good guy.
200 Richard Nabavi. Yes, if you take out a regime because it is seeking WMD, you basically are telling all other would be wmd regimes that they have two options:
1. give it up (the option Libya chose)
2. sprint like hell to the finish line (Iran’s choice)
Strangely, North Korea is dithering between the two.
200 - Best Trot groupucle ever are the Spartacist Leagu.
In 1978 a number of leading young male members were targeted by Robertson, who nicknamed them “clones” because they were supposedly of the same ilk as longtime SL “theoretician” Joseph Seymour (real name Mark Tishman). There were no politicial issues in dispute, but Robertson viewed the group, of which the most prominent member was Young Spartacus editor Sam Issacharoff (now an NYU law professor), as a group of petty bourgeois intellectuals who might eventually become a dissident faction. Issacharoff and other “clones” quit the organization. This episode was later referred to by the International Bolshevik Tendency as the “the Clone Purge”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Communist_League_(Fourth_Internationalist)
Sing when it’s swinging, Rod only sings when it’s swi-i-i-nging…
Andrew Lilico at Policy Exchange is equally as pessimistic as Guido, he is predicting 2 quarters of anemic growth, followed by 2 quarters of contraction next year and double digit inflation to follow by early 2012 – a double dip. Double digit inflation and probably a recession in 2013 – stagflation.
Lilico calls the failure of Darling to use the PBR to tackle the deficit sooner rather than later a “nihilist fiscal policy”. There has been some argument made by left-wingers that the ‘AAA’ rating is not really under threat and that it is just political scaremongering by George Osborne, to claim otherwise. The fact is that the markets have already removed the triple ‘A’ rating before the ratings agencies. In terms of the interest rate (and implied risk premium) demanded for UK debt, gilts trade like double ‘A’ countries – Japan, Portugal, Ireland – rather than triple ‘A’ countries like Germany. As a result, the cost of servicing UK debt is already 20% higher* than it is for Germany despite £200 billion having been thrown at keeping short-term rates down, not surprising when the UK leads the G20 in having the highest inflation and worst indebtedness.
http://order-order.com/2009/12/15/coming-soon-double-digit-inflation/
I am a bit surpised that noone has picked up from the data tables that the sample polled this month had an unusually large pro Labour bias . The sample had 16% Con 29% Lab 7.5% LD compared to the weighted figures of 20-23-13 . It is true that ICM’s past vote weighting will correct some of this but unlike Angus Reid , ICM do not fully correct for this . I would estimate that this is responsinle for about 2% of the increase in the Labour % at the expense of the LibDems .
Interestingly it is possible to estimate what Ipsos Mori would have produced as a headline figure with this data - roughly Con 37 Lab 34 LD 15 Others 14 a lead of just 3% !!!!!
North Korea doesn’t have oil like Iran. So NK use their weapons to extract goodies. Works a treat.
206 TimT - I think it’s even worse than that. The lesson of Iraq to any country which the US doesn’t like is that you might be arbitrarily invaded on a trumped-up pretext, unless you’ve got nuclear weapons or some other nasty thing. Thus I think the invasion of Iraq has very directly increased nuclear proliferation. From the point of view of Iran, it will look as though the only choice is to kowtow to the US, or get WMD.
The invasion of Iraq was Britain’s biggest blunder since before WWII, and America’s since at least Vietnam.
re 210. Mark - that was going to be my next post.
208 - Guido agrees with Robert Smithson.
216 Ooops LOL
213, good post, Mr. Senior.
No wonder people have difficulty with the polls when that sort of shenanigans goes on.
211 astateofdenmark. Unless you’re not one of the privileged elite. Think of how much better off North Korea would be if it had followed the policies of either South Korea or even China. Virtually any other policy would be better for the country than this dangling a ‘reprocessing freeze’ in return for one-on-one talks with the US and food/fuel aid.
210 - Anthony Wells says this on his blog:
“ICM weighted Labour voters DOWN and Conservative voters UP. It is standard practice to weight past vote to marginally more than Labour actually got at the last election to account for false recall. It is impossible for the difference between this poll and ComRes’s to be down to political weighting, since ICM weighted the poll LESS favourably to Labour than ComRes did.”
There may be some effect at the margins, but as this poll backed up the YouGov and was closer to BPIX (YouGov sourced data) then I don’t think it would make much difference.
astateofdenmark, North Korea has juche to inspire foreign unchristian proletarian non-pacificist Marxist-Leninists. And grass to feed the North Koreans themselves.
219 They are not shenanigans as you describe them but it is always much more important to look at the detailed data tables than just take the headline figures at face value .
220/2
That’s the point, the Dear Leader doesn’t care about its people or ‘how well it’s doing’, only the rule of the leader.
Rubbing the noses of the imperialist running dogs is an added bonus.
223, well, I didn’t mean to say it was deliberate bias or professionally dodgy, just that there was an underlying shift which needed to be known about when considering the big numbers.
linking the posts re defence procurement and the post at 34, aircraft in the desert parking lot.
Can anybody explain why the RAF could not acquire several of the mothballed airliners, strip them out and convert them for use in the role Nimrod (a modified airliner) currently fills?
Surely this would be considerably cheaper than refitting the existing Nimrod airframes, which is akin to refurbishing a classic hand built sports car.
Re: the Defence Cuts, can I just say that I thought Ainsworth did a pretty fair job in his interview on the “PM” programme this evening. For most of the time I found it difficult to believe I was listening to a Labour Minister - he actually made an attempt to answer the questions asked, sounded like he cared, sounded like he had some idea what he was talking about, sounded like a reasonable human being in a s0d awful position doing his best. Labour could do worse than use him to teach the others how to handle an interview.
P.S. The above is not to say he was perfect. There was one question for which he didn’t have an answer, but he was actually honest and said in effect I don’t know but I want it to happen as soon as possible. If he had been explicit, I would have given him even more praise.
P.P.S. None of the above in anyway excuses the position Ainsworth is in. Why is it, for example, that after months (years?) of telling us there are enough helicopters in Afghanistan, has HMG suddenly decided that we need to buy 22 more?
Gordon Brown announced only a week or two ago that the number of British troops required in Afghanistan would start to decline in the Autumn of 2010. The first tranche of these new helicopters won’t be in the air until 2012/13 at the earliest (remember the MOD have a dreadful record of buying off the shelf helicopters), so will they be actually needed? So by the time they arrive will they be needed? If the answer is yes, Brown is shown up once agin as a fool or a liar or a buffoon. If the answer is no, why are we sacrificing other capability, which we may well need in the future (and so Brown looks either a fool or an incompetent).
P.P.P.S. How is it that Gordon Brown can find, at the drop of a hat, £750m to give to foreign governments “to mitigate the effects of climate change” on foreign economies, but cannot find ten bob to mitigate the effect of his decision to slash a third of the helicopet budget.
224 astateofdenmark. That is a long interesting debate (which includes whether sanctions strengthen totalitarian regimes they are aimed against). Unfortunately, I have a luncheon date right now, so perhaps another time
Mark you point out an interesting fact on ICM but I think you omit the propensity to vote to get to 3%? Surely the C vs L gap would widen to 12%+ under the previous base?
I’ve just got home to a Christmas card from my MP. How nice. It has a theme of the 12 days of Islington. It starts with 12 “months that Lenin lived in Clerkenwell”. I’m not sure that will win over many floating voters.
178. looks like they’re doing it!
Tories drifting down, failing to reach previous peaks”
It depends what your starting point is. If it’s December 2008, let alone December 2007, let alone the last election, the Conservatives have gained very strongly against Labour.
And, at a time when support for parties to the Right of the Conservatives has at least doubled.
O/T Re the Defence cuts. A friend has just texted.
“Soon, the RAF, really will become the few”
I see the new statesman have corrected their error.
229 No my 3% is based on those 10/10 certain to vote . The only thing I did not allow for was the weighting Mori use for public/private workers as ICM do not ask this question .
208 - I was driving down Brian Clough Way between Nottingham and Derby the other week and it got me thinking what a suitable tribute to Roy Mason would be.
The road between Barnsley and Sheffield, which would piss Scargill off, or renaming Belfast Airport which would piss off the UVF and the IRA.
If a man is judged by his enemies Roy Mason deserves a state funeral.
233, what error?
Surely James Macintyre hasn’t been thrown in the Thames for being a cretin?
236 - Just a casual libelling of OGH; see Gabble’s post at 124
236 - For scandaolously misquoting OGH.
235
Either Liverpool or Stranraer Ports would fit the bill nicely.
Which reminds, does anyone know if a tunnel and/or bridge linking Britain and Ireland is technically feasible?
If I was conspiracy theory whackjob should i be reading more into
1) The new statesman quoting OGH massively out of context
2) Yesterday Kevin Maguire practically accused OGH of shilling for the Tories.
237/238, is the Dissident Voice an underling of Macintyre?
Is Mandelson Tim?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/dec/15/i-want-to-be-a-farmer-says-lord-mandelson
“I want to be a farmer, says Lord Mandelson
Business secretary wants to be able to grow his own food, look after farm animals, worry about the weather and get the timing of his harvest right”
239 - The mersey tunnels work fine, am sure a similar tunnel between Liverpool and Dublin would work fine.
242, is this a subtle nod and wink towards tim being Mandelson?!
241 - It would be fair to say that Mehdi Hasan is much of a frequent twitterer as James MacIntyre
244 Morris Dancer
I thought the capitalisation of “tim” would be so subtle as to confuse you all!
244 - Well I’ve ploughed a lonely furrow while spinning for most of the last four seasons.
246, I missed the top line
That’ll teach me to pay attention.
Or, it could be a nod and a wink towards Brown’s farmy-farm.
192. So you deny Labour are recovering, and the Tories drifting down?
What happened 1,2 or 3 years ago is surely less relevant than what is occurring now before our very eyes.
There’s none so blind…
Schumacher now 7/1 already, fourth favourite.
This is a problem for those who’ve backed Rosberg. If the Mercedes is rubbish, Schumacher can’t win and Rosberg has no hope. If it’s great, who can see even a talented up and comer like Rosberg challenging the greatest driver ever? It could happen. BUt it isn’t likely.
249 Rod - But you were saying the same thing last year, at about this time.
As it happens, I was also saying the same thing that I’ve said recently, namely that Labour will drift down over the next few weeks/months. The difference is that I was right last time.
Of course, past performance is no guarantee…
The Zac n Dave show continues.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/62311c48-e998-11de-9f1f-00144feab49a.html
The Conservative leader said at the weekend that all MPs and Lords would have to demonstrate they were “a full UK taxpayer”.
But Mr Cameron’s initiative prompted a row over tax law on Tuesday as Labour questioned the wording of a Tory amendment to the constitutional renewal bill.
The amendment suggested that any UK legislator has to be “domiciled and ordinarily resident in the UK”.
But one Labour figure said that this was critically different to “domiciled and resident in the UK”. “For example, they would not be liable for UK tax for income generated abroad, and would only be liable for UK tax on certain income generated in the UK,” he said.
Jack Straw, justice secretary, accused Mr Cameron of tricking the public by offering an amendment that fell short of his promise.
“David Cameron said he wanted to legislate to make all MPs and peers full UK tax payers. But as ever with the Conservative leader, what you see is not what you get,” said Mr Straw.
“Read the small print of the Tory amendments and you’ll find a loophole that would enable individuals to escape UK tax on their foreign earnings.”
250. I backed him this morning at 12/1
233: ‘I see the new statesman have corrected their error.’
Ah yes, I see they say:
‘I have amended the paragraph above to reflect the valid criticism posed by commenter “Stark Dawning”‘
As we all know, no criticism of mine is anything but valid, but fair play to Mr Hasan for admitting his mistake.
251 - Big sudden leap on the SPIN seats market.
Has someone got the next poll?
Re strange Trots. This lot takes the biscuit
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_International_Posadist
There were quite a few round in the 1970’s. They used to flog their paper on NUS student grants demos. Always an opportunity for great sport “Tell me about the flying saucers then comrade?”
253, you clever monkey
I’ve put £2 on Massa and Rosberg, but do intend to start using paper money (oh yes
) once there’s some solid information. Right now, there are four potentially great teams, and at least four potential world champions.
255 Probably reacting towards current polls.
257. Remember, don’t bet money you can’t afford to lose!
251. I am quite within my rights to show the best trend in the polls [removing as much noise as possible], and that trend is quite startling don’t you think?
Of course a trend in itself cannot predict the future. For that you need something with a good track record, like swingback.
Nevertheless, the trend and the swingback forecast are on a convergent course…
255 That is a big change, 7 seats since yesterday IIRC:
Conservative Seats 345 - 350
Labour Seats 215 - 220
Liberal Democrats Seats 50 - 53
Extrabet still at:
Labour Seats 210 - 215
Conservatives Seats 348 - 353
Liberal Democrats Seats 52 - 55
258 - Its a five seat Labour jump/ Tory fall I think, in one go.
Not complaining like.
Roll-up, roll-up. Dean Godson at the think tank Policy Exchange has arranged a cracking start to the political new year with a head to head debate between London Mayor Boris Johnson and Alan Johnson. On the 11th January the pair will debate proportional representation, with Boris opposed and the home secretary in favor. Policy Exchange is billing it as “Johnson on Johnson” and it promises to be great theater.
But it does make one wonder what Boris’s plans are for the new year and during the imminent general election campaign. Will he go about his business quietly, staying out of the picture and avoiding any trouble so as to help his rival and fellow Old Etonian David Cameron into Number 10? Somehow I doubt it, don’t you?
http://blogs.wsj.com/iainmartin/2009/12/15/boris-johnson-vs-alan-johnson-no-relation/?mod=rss_WSJBlog
260 Rod - You are within your rights to do whatever you like!
the trend and the swingback forecast are on a convergent course
… but the politics point in the opposite direction.
259, I know, it’s my Golden Rule. I did reasonably well last time in F1, but the big change (no refuelling) could make it very difficult for me.
“Nevertheless, the trend and the swingback forecast are on a convergent course…”
That’s convenient.
Isn’t a poll due? Bit of insider trading?
To answer my own question above, a link between between Britain and Ireland is technically feasible. Belfast to Galloway. N Wales to Dublin. S Wales to Wexford. Possible routes.
Problem is cost. £5 billion just for a rail bridge over the narrowest section between Belfat and Galloway. Tunnels cost even more. Then you need the road and rail upgraded either side.
Don’t think the British Isles are in any fiscal position to worry about such things for a while.
“That’s convenient.”
But not for the Tories
261 - Would you like to post your “take your profits now post” from earlier, or would you like me to do it, Roger Nabavi.
255 tim - That is a ‘WOW’ moment ! Toucher at 215 allegedly.
The way it goes is that someone has had a thickie on Labour.At the start of the day Labour were 208-213…now 215-220.
The question is “Who has had the bet on Labour and why ?” Your theory about a new poll seems most likely.
BBC Caves in to Carter Ruck Threats Over Trafigura Film
Carter-Ruck have succeeded in persuading the BBC to remove all reference to the Trafigura story from its website
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/12/bbc-caves-in-to-carter-ruck-threats.html#links
263. Hopefully Boris will be out stumping for Tory candidates in key marginals all over London. Provided he doesn’t go too off reservation he’ll be a positive.
272 - No, look what happened the last time he tried to go off the reservation,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6H3ytL0lh0U
272/273 - This is what Boris will be like during the campaign. He’ll kick bottom.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgThJK8xfKw
Mike
Can we have a glossary of abbreviations that are used on this site please?
David Evershed. I use a few.
NOM=No Overall Majority, sometimes referred to as Nomaj.
SPIN=Sporting Index.
275. Any in particular?
CAUC?
ID Cards definitely still with us (obviously nobody told Darling that),
A Treasury spokesman said the chancellor did not want ID cards scrapped and was fully behind the national roll-out of the scheme.
The Home Office also denied Mr Darling’s comments spelled the end for the controversial scheme.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8414969.stm
279 (correction) (obviously nobody told Darling that before the PBR)
Also sounds very much like the NHS IT Scheme, Darling initial comments turned out to be very different from Burnham’s announcement.
OGH?
If the Libdems come up with a good candidate, (How about it Mike) I wouldn’t write their chances off, London may be ready for something different to Buggins Turn
If you scroll down there’s a very nice seat predictor, with a pie chart.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Politics
Keep you happy for hours.
281 OGH = Our Genial Host
Our Glorious Host (if you want to big him up)
Old Gloss Head (if you don’t….)
281 refers to mike smithson who owns the site …… our genial host
281
Our Good Host
Our Goat Herder
Of Good Heart
269 tim - Out by four hours. Oh well.
276 URW?
289 - He’s a poster!
Though it stands for U.R.Wochuwyz.
Wow, the Israeli foreign minister barely escaped being locked up in the Tower of London!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/6819275/Tzipi-Livni-arrest-warrant-provokes-Britain-Israel-diplomatic-row.html
Maybe Brown could regift a certain set of American DVD’s he recently received in an effort to patch things up with Ms. Livni.
re 282. Coldstone - I much prefer being a spectator than a player and, in any case, I’m too old, have little hair, and don’t live or work in London so would be barred from putting myself forward.
289
ur readies welcome?
(Automated Algorithm Robotically Operating Markets)
294 - that might be the single most embarrassing post I have ever made on the internet. Epic fail, as they say.
289 - URW = U.R.Wochuwyz.That was my original forum name on Betfair in 2001.
Try saying it out loud.
292 - Mike, speaking from experience, I’d really recommend being a player.
295. You could’ve clawed back some self respect by posting post 294. as “Aarom”.
Meanwhile an apologist for the lies Tony Balir told to the HOC on WMD tells us A A Campbell did not write the 45minute claim so that’s all right.
http://www.labourlist.org/iraq-inquiry-separating-myths-from-facts-over-the-45-minute-clai#comments
He must think his audience are idiots.
There’s some great pictures from Copenhagen here
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/gallery/2009/dec/15/copenhagen-prince-charles-schwarzenegger
Aaron
I’m sure we can all think up our own appropriate “N” word for you.
294 But can you spell Aardvark?
http://www.alde.eu/fileadmin/webdocs/strategic_priorities/FINAL_STRATEGIC_PROGRAMME_web.pdf
If anyone is interested this is the priorities for the European Liberal grouping (ALDE) for the commisioners hearings next month.
and then you have the likes of PfP, PtP, TSE (né PLADH), TLZ which are sort of obvious
294
Don’t let the Automated Algorithm Robotically Operating Nerds grind you down…
Aarom - Can you help me ? Bet365 have shunted me off to the sidelines and now am restricted to 365p if I want a bet.
I am infinitely more dangerous outside the tent than inside. I don’t ask for a lot, just the facility to bet to take out £500.
Regards.
296 That’s disappointing, I always assumed it was some sort of exotic eastern European name!
304. Chris A.
IIRC TSE was né HB, and was briefly DH before being told the name was inappropriate…
306 Join the club, URW.
Think of it as a badge of honour.
226 Using Commercial Aircraft
It is very difficult, if not impossible, to convert commercial aircraft for the anti-submarine role because:
1. Commercial aircraft are optimised to fly high whereas most anti-submarine warfare (ASW) is at low level. This would mean, at the least, designing new wings.
2. ASW aircraft need a bomb bay. This would mean massive re-engineering in a commercial aircraft.
3. AS aircraft have lots of external radars and weapons. This would have a big effect on the aerodynamics of the aircraft and would be very expensive to engineer.
4. The loss of the Air France A340 in the South Atlantic this year showed how critical the flight envelope is in modern commercial aircraft. It is difficult to see how any modern generation commercial aircraft could be changed to ASW and be cost effective.
292
Shame that!!
309 PtP.I used to sell badges: 30p each- four for a £1. Until recently I could regularly bet with 365 to take out a thousand pounds. Burnley won me over 2k last season.
Now I have lost my telephone account and my internet account is worthless.
Unlike the French,I am a good friend and a bad enemy. I am not normally vindictive, I am abnormally vindictive !
267. Isn’t the Mull of Kintyre the nearest bit of the GB mainland to the island of Ireland?
Health & Safety and Equality Considerations for Christmas Songs
While Shepherds Watched
While shepherds watched
Their flocks by night
All seated on the ground
The angel of the Lord came down
And glory shone around
The Union of Shepherds has complained that it breaches health and safety regulations to insist that shepherds watch their flocks without appropriate seating arrangements being provided, therefore benches, stools and orthopaedic chairs must be made available. Shepherds have also requested that, due to the inclement weather conditions at this time of year, they should watch their flocks via cctv cameras from centrally heated observation huts.
Please note, the angel of the lord is reminded that before shining his/her glory all around she/he must ascertain that all shepherds have been issued with glasses capable of filtering out the harmful effects of UVA, UVB and Glory.
306/309 - Apologies gents, I made some discreet enquiries for PtP but it was a no-can-do situation and I can hardly ask again!
275 - David.
The real key to understanding the site for me is understanding the herd and the non herd.
Once you have worked out which of the Tory posters are herd then you have the key to betting and investment wealth and political judgement.
Test run a bet, investment decision or opinion and if attacked by 100% herd you are in clover.
I’m not sure whether to reveal the secrets yet but am contemplating a herd league to be released on 31/12/09
312 - I maintain a series of mistresses who bet in my name.
Join the club
312 I am abnormally vindictive too, URW, and have found a sneaky way to take my revenge on Bet £3.65, but I’m not saying what it is on here in case that Aarom grasses me up!
251.Tim,
I can only imagine that as we have not seen the Mori Poll. The media is up to it’s old tricks and as we speak, The Sunday Mirror or Observer are having a bidding war to get the Mori poll, then sex it up with a Labour largest party narrative… It’s obvious what’s happening, the media want Labour back in and you know what? They are quite welcome to the economy and country they have f4cked up!
It’s too late for any other party to put it right now anyway… We are doomed!!
317 You can trust them, Tim?
Fair enough,Aaron. You are one of the very goodguys. I think the firm are very short-sighted.
Yes, I am going to beat them as is PtP but sometimes it is useful to have a marker.
At the end of 2006 I engineered a six-figure coup against Bet365 (if everyone was telling the truth) and they didn’t alter the terms of my account one jot.
Things are different today………….
320 - He only chooses Tory mistresses who have enough money already. In this respect his IHT campaign is either extraordinarily short-sighted or extraordinarily selfless.
316. tim: understanding the herd and the non herd.
In particular, that the vast majority of them provide a net benefit to the site by their contributions, unlike you.
319 Alternatively, the MORI poll’s results aren’t terribly interesting.
I expect that Labour’s seats have moved up, because ICM and Yougov suggest they’d win 240/250 seats.
317 - A bit of advice, have them listed in your phone as gay guys, such as Big Gay Steve etc, or Camp Richard. Your girlfriend/wife will never suspect then.
321 Seriously, URW, Aarom is definitely on the side of the angels and not responsible for the rather short-sighted policies of the firm’s trading departments. (Aroma works on the computer side, not the trading desk.)
I believe he has tried to enlighten them, but without success, so until Maori gathers a little more seniority in the firm, we are stuck with it and will have to rely on subterfuge.
325 - Mark Thatcher Fan?
new thread
327 - No, the voice of experience.