Do the LDs gain most from the plot’s failure?
January 8th, 2010
Would replacing Brown be bad news for Clegg?
Thanks to Ryans on a previous thread for highlighting the detailed finding in the week’s first YouGov poll on the party split when respondents were asked if they would be more or less likely to vote Labour if Brown was replaced.
Normally I think we should be quite sceptical about such questions and I don’t think we should read too much into the scale of potential switching. But one thing stands out from the numbers - that 27% of Lib Dem voters said they would be more likely to vote Labour if it had a different leader.
What makes this segment so important is that the LD-LAB cross-over could be the key factor that decides whether there is a Tory majority or not.
For in almost all polls from all the firms the Tories are pretty solid on 40 - 42%. At the same time the LD-LAB aggregate is staying remarkably constant in the 45 - 49% range - it’s how that is splitting that is driving the size of the Labour deficit.
So when Labour is up the Lib Dems are down and vice versa. Thus anything that could move more Lib Dems to supporting Labour has to be taken seriously.
Taking YouGov’s 27% LD proportion then that would mean a 4 point switch from Clegg’s party to Labour. I don’t think it would be anything like that but 2% could make a dramatic difference in terms of seats gained and lost.
There’s also the factor that we’ve looked at many times of “tactical unwind” - what happens when electors revert to their main allegiance after at previous elections voting for the party in their constituency most likely to stop, generally, the Tories.
One survey in 2005 suggested that one in ten of all votes for Labour were tactical - mostly, one would assume, in the marginals. So if some of those slip back then that could make it easier for the Tories in key targets.
Maybe because more people are at home because of the weather the YouGov poll sample was pretty large and there were 564 LD voters.
Mike Smithson
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Mike. Yes. Absolutely.
We know from historical fact that Labour and the LibDems are fighting over the same relatively fixed total number of votes. Brown is a disaster for Labour and this will help the yellow peril pick up their votes.
It will also hugely help Dave. The MP numbers / Tory majority are quite sensitive to the Labour count and even realtively small moves from Lab to LD in % terms will indeed translate into much larger moves in terms of the number of seats the Tories get.
Is this a first? For the last three mornings, I’ve been second to post on the first thread of the day.
Sad or what!
Sad
FPT - Arguing somewhat against OGH, but relevant to this thread:
******* BETTING POST *******
(Probably my last for a while)
302 (FPT) Were [the LibDems] to fall any further than the 16% share of the vote as shown in this latest YouGov survey, then some rather tasty betting opportunities start to open up in the GE seats markets.
It often seems to be assumed that the GE seat predictors seriously understate, at the lower ranges, the number of seats which the LibDems are likely win, principally on account of their strong incumbency factor.
That may well be so, but feeding the latest YouGov poll figures into Baxter shows the LibDems winning just 27 seats.
Too low? Quite possibly so, but even assuming this to be the case, Ladbrokes’ odds of 10/1 against the LibDems winning between 30-39 seats starts to look quite tasty.
Put it this way, I’d rather be taking this bet at 10/1 than the same firm’s odds of 8/1 against the LibDems winning between 70-79 seats. But then I’ve been a long-term LD seller - believing imho that by consistently being seen to favour Labour over the Tories, they’ve made a huge strategic mistake.
Clegg’s line of attack should clearly be something along the lines of:
‘So you don’t like the Conservatives. Labour have been a shocking and damaging disgrace in government and are deeply split over their bully boy leader. There’s only one party able and ready to carry the progressive and freedom loving torch - the Liberal Democrats’.
If he has any true strategic or tactical acumen Clegg should point all his guns at Labour and pretty much ignore Dave. Attacking the Tories might feel good in their hearts for some LibDems, but it is NOT the smart thing for the LibDems to do in 2010.
Thinking aloud, if I was a soft liberal voter and had the option for a no hope liberal candidate ot voting laboutr to keep a tory out in a marginal, at present I might not lend my vote on the labour guy as that message of “Do you really want 5 more years of Brown?” would resonate just before I had to put an “X” in the box.
The key question to me is how many soft tories will vote UKIP after all the immigaration issues, certainly a factor in some marginals where immigration is an issue.
Problem for the big 3 is that attacking each other on these matters which are of genuine concern to voters only helps draw attention to smaller parties like UKIP and the BNP, who between them had 20% of the EURO vote so they will decide the election as much as anyone else.
Whether the libs have 17% or 19% will not be as significant as that potential 20% moving in the wind dependent who moves to allay their fears, without antagonising the core support. I expect lots of talking about doing something but as usual nothing actually being offered, let alone done about it.
Lib Dem pick up cannot be automaticaly assumed as the early yougov poll shows a small slide doesn’t it? The failed coup was so pathetic that I anticipate sub stories and sub plots are going to emerge. Did Brown engineer it?
Do the LDs gain most, the latest poll headline would suggest not, down 1 to 16% must be cause for concern to Clegg although there does appear to be some cold comfort in the ‘detail’ !
However, it is early days and the full ramifications of Labour’s troubles have yet to trickle through, interesting times to be sure.
I agree with redcliffe62 on the soft LibDem being unlikely to switch to Labour tactically this time - I think they’ll vote LibDem. For the Labour voters, I don’t see a strong incentive to vote LibDem, so I think a chunk will simply withhold their votes, as happened to the Tories in 1997.
In short, I see a total unwind of the tactical vote from the last three elections, plus something of a Labour voter strike. If this is indeed the case, I think assumptions of a hung parliament on 6-7% Tory lead in the polls may well be wrong, both because of the tactical unwind, and because that poll lead may well translate to a votes lead of 10%.
But then my predictions for the vote count is 42.5/26.5/17, which will translate into a landslide.
The ‘also ran’ parties do way better at local and Euro elections, where it is tantamount to a protest vote, that at GEs. I note the non-big-3 polling is down to 12% from 13% and previously from 15%. I think as we get closer to the crunch and people really start to see the choice for the country and the mess we’re in that the big 3 will more and more push them out. Certainly in England anyway - the porridge mob may not suffer the same way in the outer colonies and will make up a big chunk of the reported also-rans.
UKIP, Greens, BNP, Respect et all will bomb embarrassingly at the GE.
Note to Oldnat about PB advertising
Firstly sorry not to have picked up your point earlier. The scale of comments is so great that I only read a proportion and I do not operate 24/7.
Yes - in the past we have taken advertising from a wide range of parties including Labour, the Conservatives, the Lib Dems. You don’t get very much for internet advertising but even so this is a key source of income that keeps PB going.
Revenue goes initially to funding the technical side and then to provide me with a little bit of an income. This is my job and I retired early in 2007 so I could devote myself full-time to the site.
Yes there are advertisers that I won’t accept - political parties are not amongst them.
Patrick
You must be happy. Mike seems to be confirming your theory about labour-lib dem totals.
The Lib Dems are not doing particularly well, despite Labour’s troubles. So if this theory is true, it would mean that a better Labour leader would be disaster for the yellow team.
Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear.
First, yesterday, we had a PB post based upon an Iain Martin fantasy blog post, simply because the Wall Street Journal had deigned to advertise on Mike’s blog. And today we have a puff piece on how great the Lib Dems are going to do, based… err… on a poll showing… err… a drop in LD support, taking them to a level almost one third lower than they polled at the 2005 GE! Mike nearly always ignores the supplementary questions, but I wonder if the Sage of Sussex has been pouring poison in his ear?
Add in Mike’s boyish crush on FM Dave, and one must ask oneself if this week has seen the beginning of the end of a once mighty political figure. And I’m not talking aboot Gogsie Broon or his skotchlandshire deputy Skeletor.
So, Gordon is going to call the election “next week”, according to Mandy:
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/politics/leadership-move-a-storm-in-a-teacup-claims-prime-minister-1.996934
But don’t mind this trivia. I think that we ought really to focus on how wonderfully Deputy First Minister Clegg is going to do at the forthcoming English general election. A really sterling chap that Clegg. He will be a great lieutenant to FM Dave.
Meanwhile, in the Land of Oz…
re 14. Sorry you are not happy. I am sure that there are others sites that you will find more to your liking.
There seems to be a percieved wisdom that whatever happens the LDs will always get their vote out especially in incumbent seats.
I have always been of that opinion but in view of the way Clegg is conducting himself my view is starting to shift.
Just a 5% swing in some of the incumbent seats is going to cause carnage in the LD seat holdings.
In most seats where the LDs hold power the Labour vote has already been squeezed mecilessly at the last 2 elections.Can they pick up more votes from elsewhere?
They must be praying that UKIP have an effect on the Tories share.
16 Mike S. Don’t be too unkind to Stuart. He’s clearly up early practising his morris dancing and has lost his bearings with all that twirling and wiffling.
Scots Lib Dems - 18% - yes please !!
What we need is more on changes to the Scottish TV schedules.
6 - are you suggesting that the “old thumb rule” is defunct, ie that a Lib Dem strategy of targeting Labour’s deficiencies helps no-one but the Tories via vote-splitting?
19 david. You mean Scottish breakfast telly dominating by the early morning morris dancing efforts of befuddled SNP posters ??
Might be a hit !?!
18 – According to Sky, “the mercury plunged below -21C in parts of the Scottish Highlands, with bitterly cold temperatures elsewhere in the country”
Personally I think its too much salt in his porridge.
Stuart once posted an article about changes to STV or some similar provincial station.
Fascinating it was……
3/8 - Patrick / Redcliffe.
We should be very careful about assuming that because percentages stay the same, we’re looking at the same voters. Absolute numbers rather than percentages are more meaningful in such a comparison.
From 1979-92, it’s true that the Lib/Lab block remained roughly constant, however since then it’s wobbled quite a lot due to the fall in turnout.
Likewise with the Euros. Minor parties always do better there anyway, partly because it’s seen as more legitimate to protest because the election isn’t seen as all that important and partly because PR gives more candidates and more opportunity for them to get elected. Even so, the 20%+ who voted BNP/UKIP and therefore might have immigration worries would translate to only about 10% come a general election where the turnout could well be double.
The challenge for the Lib dems is to keep up their profile in the early part of a long election campaign.If they are forced out of the news then they could be squeezed in share between now and march.OK Clegg will get coverage in the leaders debate but bthts too late in the day.
rogerh
Stuart @ 14
Its not that difficult.
Clegg is doing badly, but would do even worse if Brown were replaced by someone who was not the spawn of satan.
On topic, the key wording is “Which would make you more likely to vote Labour at the coming general election”.
That’s much weaker than a direct switching question and it’s reasonable to assume that only a proportion - possibly quite a smallish one - of Lib Dem voters who say they might be tempted by a non-Brown lead Labour party would actually make the switch.
Quite how reliable the answers to that question are is questionable given that among Labour voters, there’s an almost 3:1 break in favour of Brown staying, of those who say it would make a difference. There may be something in that about how they’d perceive a change now (panicking? self-indulgence? undemocratic?) but I don’t think the Labour support has such a high proportion of committed Brownites.
As for the effects on the Lib Dems, it will probably make little difference. They’re quite likely to benefit from asymmetric tactical voting - where Labour-inclined voters vote Lib Dem to keep the Tories out in the large number of Con/LD seats but Lib Dem-inclined voters don’t return the favour in Con/Lab ones. If so, Brown going or staying won’t have much effect on a local level unless either or both parties can start to eat into the Tories’ 40%+ share.
Did anyone read the article in the Guardian? Quite interesting
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/jan/07/gordon-brown-leadership-coup-election
Betting Post - Norwich South
1 Charles Clarke summoned before local party officials this evening to be told to ‘lay off’ Gordon Brown.
2 Green Party opens campaign ’shop’ in Norwich City Centre
3 In other local news, local councillors back move to turn off street lights from midnight - 5am to save money.
Believe the difference in polls is just noise. The tracker showed how volatile the electorate is. Reckon the lead is 12-14 points myself.
Mr. Dickson, we don’t have an English First Minister. We have the Prime Minister. If you don’t stop being a naughty little tinker we’ll have to lock you in a room with tim.
FPT, and the Robinsons, I don’t see how Peter Robinson himself can be held to be in breach of his Code of Conduct. I haven’t been able to find any provision that requires one to report unethical behaviour on the part of other people, even family members.
Whether he’ll survive politically is another matter, though.
The best comment I read was from Henry 94 on Sluggerotoole who said “If he was in Fianna Fail, he’d be kicked out for demanding that she return the money.”
13 23 Serf David.
Please be careful. My observation is that the absolute vote numbers for Lab + LD remain roughly flat (certainly true for 2001 and 2005 at 15.5 million and only 1997 is anomalous - reread my guest slot of Dec 30th). As the Tory vote and therefore total of all votes cast fluctuates with turnout then the Lab +LD share also fluctuates. I have never said that the poll share of the Left (Lab + LDs) is flat because it’s not.
Note that a low Lab + LD poll share therefore implies a higher turnout - and if history is anything to go by the current Lab + LD share suggests a turnout in the mid 70%s. I fully agree with the criticism that this may be effect rather than cause and that past correlations may not hold in the future - but the relationship holds very well for the last 7 elections.
Mainly for Peter from Putney @ 6.
I have a friend who knows the answer to every question whose answer is a number.
I gave him all the relevant data regarding the Lib Dems; Spreads,bookmaker prices, my prices, the lot !
Usually you have to wait about thirty seconds before a stream of numbers pours out.Now and again you have to wait a little longer.
This time he said “It’s all bolleaux !” What you need to do is to determine those Seats the Lib Dems can’t lose and those they can’t win and go to work on what is left.
Mike Smithson says that the LDs will be competitive in 90 small Seats.He doesn’t say how many they can’t lose. All in all we might have to consider the chances in 70 Seats.
As young Dickson insists on calling Cammers FM Dave and - in response for a suitable name for political collectives - may I profer:
SNP Posters:- a tedium
SNP Politicians:- a vacuum
PLP members:- desperados
Also it is nice to see Gillain Shepard biggin’-up yesterday’s poll in SkyNews this morning. Along with Master Longhurst’s whit they make morning television somewhat bearable.
29 - I’d wait and see how genuine Iris’ “suicide attempt” turns out to be.
There’s various stories circulating that they’ll struggle to match Peters chirpy demeanour at the time with his sudden melancholy two days before the BBC programme came out.
33 Well, of course, there may be more to emerge, or there may not.
On the evidence presented *so far* I can’t see that Peter Robinson has broken any rules.
On Iris Robinson
60 year old woman pulls 20 year old chap. Got to be impressed.
Not sure wht it means for hubby though.
Patrick @ 30
reread my guest slot of Dec 30th
Sorry Teacher, I would but the dog ate my copy
26.
David, I totally agree with you on that one. Trying to be as honest as possible, if I personaly was asked the question “Would getting rid of Brown make you more likely to vote Labour?” I would answer “Yes”.
However, if the following set of questions were asked instead:-
Q1. What are the chances of you voting Labour at the next Election.
My A1. Zero
Q2. What are the chances of you voting Labour at the next Election if Gordon Brown is not their leader.
My A2. Zero
So, although I believe inside that I have answered the questions honestly, my answers to the first and last questions don’t match.
Of course, it could be that I’m clinically insane, although the men in white coats haven’t come for me yet
The Obviously Randy Yeti @ 37
Since your both your answers A1 and A2 are zero, changing the Labour leader has not made you more likely to vote Labour, so the answer to the original question should have been No.
38 - s/has/would/
38. Foreign Tory
Yes, it should have been no. I’m saying that my thought process if asked the first question would have been along the lines of:-
“Oh, they’ve got rid of Brown, that’s good, I think that makes me more likely to vote Labour”
I can’t fully explain it, but I do feel I would have said yes to the first question and that’s the point. Even though I should have said no, the way it was asked would have made me say yes.
37/38/39/40. Surely it should be “The Obviously Randy Tory” and “Foreign Yeti” ??
41.
You could say that. I couldn’t possibly comment
Anyway, “I owe, I owe, so off to work I go…”
35 - He’s not bad looking either. You’ve got to have a sneaking admiration for her to that extent. I don’t think it will help the DUP with their God-fearing voters though.
35.
“60 year old woman pulls 20 year old chap”
More power to her elbows. Or possibly knees?
In Come Dancing technical terms it’s known as a ‘reverse Berlusconi’.
I bet Tiger Woods wishes he’d picked up on the ‘depression’ descriptor.
43 Poor Iris, doing what she can to keep vulnerable good looking 19 year old guys away from the path of wicked gayness, and what thanks does she get for be so self sacrificing?
45 - I’m not sure that if £50k changed hands it really counts as pulling.
SeanT could’ve negotiated the entire fife and drum band youth section for that.
Of course she has to called, ‘Mrs Robinson’ doesn’t she. I wonder which DJ in NI will be the first to play the song.
Just watched the first half of This Week (having read a few comments on the prior thread). Abbot was a bit of a lunatic. Shame there wasn’t more from Portillo.
Posters above are correct that there is a fair bit of crossover between Labour and Lib Dem voters, but we should bear in mind that the polling result doesn’t mean 27% of Lib Dem voters would actually change their vote if Brown was ousted.
Even assuming half of them would is quite a big leap - you can become ‘more likely’ to vote Labour but the amount by which you do so could be quite small. To get an idea of the actual crossover you’d need to run a polling question with alternative Labour leaders in it, I think.
50. Dale tweeted that he thought she was “ratarsed”
“I’m not sure that if £50k changed hands it really counts as pulling.”
I agree with Tim on this. The whole thing is pretty disgusting.
52, I’m not so sure, but she was clearly over-agitated.
Not only Mrs Robinson it seems.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1241492/Boris-Johnsons-ex-wife-45-secret-marriage-Muslim-aged-23.html
“Allegra Mostyn-Owen even implied she would be content to be one of several of his wives. Since she is 45, she said she would be happy for her new husband to have children with a younger woman.
They would then live as an ‘extended family’ as sanctioned by the Prophet Mohammed ‘who said it was OK to marry up to four women’, she declared.”
53. I think this great news for the UU-Cons in Ulster; I can hardly think of a scandal more likely to appal DUP voters, especially rural ones.
32 Note that a low Lab + LD poll share therefore implies a higher turnout - and if history is anything to go by the current Lab + LD share suggests a turnout in the mid 70%s. I fully agree with the criticism that this may be effect rather than cause and that past correlations may not hold in the future - but the relationship holds very well for the last 7 elections.
But this is based on your theory expounded in your Dec 30th post that the major reason for the recent low turnouts has been a vote strike by Tories. The comments then appeared to show that most people were dubious about that theory (putting it kindly).
Serf January 8th, 2010 at 8:11 am “On Iris Robinson 60 year old woman pulls 20 year old chap.”
Seems in line with that old Irish rule. Vote early and often?
On thread, no. David Cameron gains most from the plot’s failure. Voters will be invited to choose alternative governments. Right now, the choice appears to be Hobson’s choice, given that the incumbents seem to be unable to offer one.
My suspicion is that Lib Dem/Labour switchers tend to do so in constituencies where their switch isn’t critical to the fortunes of the Lib Dems. The Conservatives may benefit in seats as a result, but I doubt the Lib Dems would much. Call it “tactical unwind”, if you will.
48 Good one, tim!
On topic: Clearly anything which damages Labour in the eyes of its own supporters benefits the LibDems. However, that doesn’t mean that disaffected Labour supporters, realising what a total shambles Labour has become, will automatically switch their vote to the LibDems. Some will switch to the Tories, some will switch to minor parties, and (as others have pointed out above), many will simply stay at home. The figures Mike highlights don’t really provide much insight into how large each effect will be.
My guess is that the biggest movement will be to the StayAtHome party, partly because Clegg has done such done such a poor job of giving them positive reasons to vote LibDem. In addition, giving the history of this government over the past few years, it seems unlikely that voters who haven’t already switched their allegiance from Labour to another party will do so now in big numbers. More likely, they will simply sit back and wait for Labour to regain its sanity.
They might have a long wait. Conservative supporters had to wait an entire decade.
56
Yeah! vote for the party that scrapped Stormont and imposed rule from London, oh and the wife of our leader doesn’t sh*g boys old enough to be her grandson: great pitch!
I’m working on a musical show called “Iris and Pupil” - guaranteed only half the eyes in the house will be dry.
The hit single, The Sash My Mother Wore will be the Easter Number One.
Back to the plot, there seem to be several stories running today which emphasise that Brown has been told by his ‘ministers’ (sic) to abandon the class war stuff and tack to the centre. It will be very interesting to see if he actually does this.
Replacing Brown mmmmm….He won’t go easily and it will in my opinion make little difference to the LibDems maybe a point here of there. The reason is people have made up their minds now despite the desperate postings of some regarding not ’sealing the deal’.
As we say round here its a done deal already even though Brown remains in Government but to be honest no longer in power. He is simply being blown about on the ‘political sea’ completly out of control of current events or his own fate. For the good of the country and us all he should finish it now and call a GE.
If not the defeat when it comes and it is coming, will be far heavier and more destructive to his party than if he had the courage to do the right thing today.
“How Gordon Brown bought off the plotters: PM vows to rein in Ed Balls and give way on election tactics”
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1241381/David-Miliband-finally-backs-Gordon-Brown-Cabinet-botched-coup-named-shamed.html?ITO=1708&referrer=yahoo#ixzz0c0fyxDP0
40. A more statistically consistent set of answers to Yeti’s conundrum would be:
How likely are you to vote Labour with Brown as leader? 2%
How likely are you to vote Labour if Brown is replaced? 2.5%
Would replacing Brown make you more likely to vote Labour? Yes
Were you going to vote Labour? No
Would you vote Labour if Brown were replaced, all else being equal? No.
46 Wage Slave are you standing in for TSE this morning? PB’s resident Warren Beatty would be reaching for his kleenex by now. I wonder if he has been finalising any legal contracts in Belfast in the past couple of years
On topic, clearly there is going to be some movement between Labour and LibDem voters on election day. Will it be tactical in the Billy Bragg style? This time I doubt it as the thought of
“James Gordon Brown 5 More Years”
will put even the most rabid anti-Tory LibDem off their coco pops (excluding Mark Senior and chums of course). What we do not know howvere is how these swaps will breakdown by region and that I would suggest is the key to success or failure for the LibDems.
Well as Mandy is now PM in all but name, there could be some changes made.
I see well known right-wing commentator Littlejohn, has some comments particularly over the jubilee celebrations.
That evening, the Queen will attend her final Royal Command Performance from the Stephen Gately Theatre, introduced by Stephen Fry and featuring a diverse range of performers, including Graham Norton, Alan Carr and Julian Clary. Broadcast exclusively on Twitter, the top-of-the-bill attraction will be Jonathan Ross and Russell Brand telling the Duke of Edinburgh that they’ve had sex with his granddaughters.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1241482/RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-Mandelson-run-Jubilee-God-save-Queen.html#ixzz0c0ePMeRV
Hmmm sounds good.
62 - You don’t really know much about Ulster politics do you?
65 - I’ve been saying a big part of this was Balls. He’ll be doing a lot of the leaking at the moment as well.
Easy win for the Lib Dems at Harrogate Woodfield last night, a safe Lib Dem seat where the Lib Dem elected, I think in 2007, defected to the Conservatives, sadly recently died and hence the by election. Therefore goes down as a gain.
Lib Dem 688
Cons 246
BNP 92
Labour 72
However an indicator of the Lib Dem vote holding in a seat they have to hold at the General if they are to get their target number?
64, why would he? They’ve backed him now. He might do it for a few weeks, but nothing will stop him if he wants to return to it.
Tiger has affair: fallen hero
Iris has affair: laughing stock
Gareth has affair: hero
64.”Back to the plot, there seem to be several stories running today which emphasise that Brown has been told by his ‘ministers’ (sic) to abandon the class war stuff and tack to the centre. It will be very interesting to see if he actually does this.”
How is that going to work? Is Brown going to commit to raising VAT? Is he going to announce savage cuts to public sector jobs? How can he shore up Labour’s core vote and gain swing voters at the same time? It’s not 1997, there isn’t the money to spare.
Even if Brown does suddenly change his mind and say such things won’t people ask what the hell he’s been talking about for the last 18 months or so? Or why the PBR didn’t mention such a change of direction?
Finally suppose that Brown says such things and people agree with it, won’t people ask why they should vote for the monkey? Shouldn’t they instead be voting for the organ grinder who has twisted Brown’s arm?
Gordon Brown suddenly coming over all Blairite is going to look very silly indeed.
Why are we calling the plot a ‘failure’?
I believe it is becoming increasingly obvious that it was a resounding success. I do not believe that it was ever intended to topple Brown - although that must have been Plan ‘B’ if the plot did not reach it’s true objective.
The Blairites’ true objective was to move the PLP away from Brown’s/Ball’s class war and Tory cuts electoral strategy and back towards the centre ground - which they believe is their only hope of electoral success. We’re getting confirmation that He Who Must Not Be Named has now been placed firmly in charge of electoral strategy - so objective fully achieved.
I don’t believe that they wanted to get rid of Brown - not yet anyway. They must realise that there is a fair chance they will not win the election, and they need Brown there to blame it all on him. Incidentally, I am increasingly convinced that they’ll end up pushing Brown out ‘for health reasons’ even if he does win the election or achieve a hung parliament.
I think there’s a simple reason for Milliband’s long silence - he was lined up by the Blairites to take over if Brown didn’t budge. They couldn’t make a threat without being fully prepared to act on it.
The choice of H&H was astute - a reasonable amount of clout as ex-ministers ensured that the plot was taken seriously by the Brownites. On the other hand, as has-beens with axes to grind and who are not standing for the next election, the actual damage they could do to the PLP was contained and repairable. The question I have is: were they duped and used by the plotters or were they aware of exactly what was going on?
And finally, the cherry on the cake: persistent rumours being spread around that Harman was behind the plot. Of course, the fact that until yesterday she was the one anointed to lead electoral strategy rather than the Dark Lord is pure coincidence….
69 Reading the attacks on David Miliband, across the press and all on the presumption he is a serial bottler and that this has exposed his lack of real political guile, one can’t help feeling the Balls/Whelan operation has been busy.
Message “Balls might be an unattractive figure to many but he is at least up for the fight, capable of exposing the Tories, optimistic of success. Miliband on the other hand is a banana, yellow through and through and not stright on what he wants or believes”
64
Brown always does what he wants. He’ll be back on the ‘investments v. cuts’ theme shortly.
The very act of defeating the ‘coup’ gives his ego a boost and he has the constant support of Balls.
What is truly astonishing is the gullibility of the cabinet - or maybe they have already factored Brown out of the electoral equation…
67.
” Wage Slave are you standing in for TSE this morning?”
No but I have bought out Paul Simon’s Ulster performing rights.
57 - So how many seats could the Conservatives/UUP pick up in Northern Ireland as a consequence of a falling DUP vote? If it really were to get tight in England & Wales, two or three Ulster Tories could just nudge Dave over the winning line….
I presume some Unionists may feel more inclined to vote Conservative regardless of the Robinson affair because it would be seen to lock them more into the UK…
75
Miliband = Brown, (de nos Jours)?
75.
” David Miliband….. is a serial bottler”
In the manner of John Prescott and David Khammereon? Greasy ‘uns 2009 rule KO.
79, whilst Milipede is a cowardly incompetent, I don’t think he’s quite the delusional, raving lunatic Brown is.
28. I’m not sure I like your moniker.
73. Well I must admit I have my doubts about whether he is capable of effecting such a change in approach, and I am sure he is unwilling…:)
69
No! I do know this though.
He also recounts the crucial Downing Street meetings between NI premier Brian Faulkner and UK Prime Minister Ted Heath, and the dramatic developments as Heath announces the suspension of Stormont, where huge crowds of Unionists gather in volatile mood.
I would have thought that any party in NI that associates with the people who did the above, wouldn’t be too wise. They have long memories in NI, they must have, most of ‘em are still living in the 17th century what is Reggie Maudling said on landing in Belfast, ‘Adjust your watches to NI time, turn ‘em back 300 years’
p.s.
You could tow the whole province out into the Atlantic and sink it, and most people this side of the water would give a sigh of relief.
Would be good to have a NI thread before the election.
So Gordo has apparently given concessions, to give away some control, to listen, to change tack, etc etc etc. Heard it all before!
He is a control freak, he can’t do it, when the going gets tough he will be back on the same old same old, Evil Baby Eating Tory Toffs…investment vs cuts….when he gets a difficult question he will go into to tractor stat mode…
The fact the jellyfish in the cabinet believe him is even worse. He keeps giving these assurances and the same thing keeps happening.
81
Good point
Every 2 months the line comes out of the bunker that GB will listen more and be more collegiate.
That will not happen until the election campaign when events will dictate what he does.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/6947739/Harriet-Harman-encouraged-Labour-coup-against-Gordon-Brown.html
Kirkup says it was Harman.
So therefore it was leaked by Balls as Kirkup is a Balls mouthpiece
Looking around this morning, it could well be that the lack of grit will do more damage to Labour than the plot
If the opposition parties can play it well enough - of course
It is ridiculous that the Govt has diverted vital supplies away from a port such as Felixstowe - which will be needed to get new stocks delivered
Plus it is a typical failure to plan.
Not all the blame can be pinned on local government.
86 Oracle - I doubt very much that they do believe him. Other than Balls, it seems that those who haven’t given up altogether are trying feebly to limit the damage, but without much hope or conviction.
76. You get to the heart of the matter here but I take a different view. I think its pragmatism rather than gullibility on behalf ofthe cabinet to be honest. They want there to still be a Labour party after Gordon has lost and gone. With Brown and Balls at the helm there might not be one after the election. Gordon has been put on notice that he only has the leadership on loan - not for keeps.
Quite clear that Balls is doing most of the leaking. His agenda is to nobble his opponents in the coming Leadership race. D Milliband now looks mortally wounded and others such as Harman, Straw, Murphy and Alexander are all tainted as traitors.
This would leave just Ed Milliband and Alan Johnson as Balls rivals. AJ is however unlikely to stand after the GE.
George Galloway deported from Egypt
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8447847.stm
Quite clear that Balls is doing most of the leaking. His agenda is to cripple his opponents in the coming Leadership race. D Milliband now looks mortally wounded and others such as Harman, Straw, Murphy and Alexander are all tainted.
This would leave just Ed Milliband and Alan Johnson as Balls rivals. AJ is however unlikely to stand after the GE.
Oracle @ 86
The fact the jellyfish in the cabinet believe him is even worse. He keeps giving these assurances and the same thing keeps happening.
I have a three year old daughter, whose most used sentence is:
Sorry daddy, I won’t be naughty again, I promise.
You’ll be unsurprised to learn that she never keeps her word.
At the risk of being unkind to the apple of my eye, Brown’s reassurances are of the same quality.
Regarding the Lib Dems, in the past week or so the political news has revolved around Cammo’s airbrushed(?) poster, his double U-turn on tax breaks for married couples (btw, does this extend to civil partnerships?) and of course the H-H plot. Where do the Lib Dems figure in all of this? Nowhere. At the moment they are the forgotten party, so no real surprise that they are floundering in the latest polls. However, longer term, then yes they may see the greatest benefit from the failed plot, but only in the sense that if the plot had worked, they would have lost votes to Labour under a different leader.
Blow for Bradshaw or will it be rearranged ?
I am on him at 5/6 to be reelected
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2010/01/gordon-brown-and-the-cabinet-will-not-be-missed-in-exeter-today-.html
94 - David Miliband, so far from being mortally wounded, is firm favourite with the bookies.
97 So Exeter is counting on election night - result 1 am to 2 am. Good for them!
99, perhaps because Mandelson sees him as a perfect puppet.
99 antifrank - Yes, but that’s a bit odd, is it not? It is hard to see how the events of the past couple of days could have improved his chances. His ambiguous stance will have pleased neither the plotters nor those who wanted to unite around Brown (for now at least).
The Telegraph says the young man involved with Iris Robinson is a Roman Catholic. That will not play well in Portadown.
103. Bad week for Robinson x 3.
Floater very accurately pointed out in the previous thread
about a government statement (or lack off) regarding cuts.
—————————————————
“There were no worthwhile plans for thrift because, a Treasury spokesman said, “given the continued uncertainty in the global economy, to fix each department’s budget now, for the next five years, is neither necessary nor sensible”.
—————————————————-
A simple question then
If the government in power with all the figures to hand cannot do this how come Brown attacks the Tories (who have none of the inside information) for failing to come up with any real spending plans and even produces a dodgy dossier of 150 pages in length in an attempt to discredit anything the Tories say?
The figures are far worse than we have been led to believe of course and as a previous poster said the Government are in a panic only 17 weeks to the election. They are I believe in a panic because when the Tories open the books the full story of their incompetence and lies will be known. Thats why I think Labour are more in a panic. QE will have to stop at some point and then what? We are buying our own debt at the moment as far as I can see but how long can that be sustained?
Rememember Cameron said one of the first actions of a Tory administration would be to audit the books and make this public (as far as possible of course as publication could cause even more damage). The second act should be to hold Brown responsible for the situation and then enact legal proceedings against him. There should be others as well but after 13 years he has been in control of the finances so there is no excuse and no one else to blame as much as this cowardly creature.
Harriet’s course case in due today.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8447784.stm
grr course = court
106 Perhaps Gordon can put in a good word at court….and get her three years!
92
The time for action has come and gone.
The cabinet has no hold over Brown now. From 27, DH says that Labour supporters have broken 3:1 in favour of Brown - the ‘Force is with him’. There is no chance of him being replaced before the GE without terminal recriminations within the party. So the choice is Brown’s Way or NoWay. Brown and Balls know this; so, probably, do the cabinet. I think the net result will be two parallel election campaigns.
Now, after the result, there is going to be a bloodletting, a Grand Guignol of epic proportions, providing more sport than the World Cup.
106. Is it not just the charges being made ? She’s not giving evidence.
#84, by coldstone January 8th, 2010 at 9:31 am
You could tow the whole province out into the Atlantic and sink it, and most people this side of the water would give a sigh of relief.
Taffy,
As a Sarf’ Lun’dun’ Catholic I - for one - can tell you that I would miss the people of The Province. When was the last time you were there…? [I was last their in 2001, so - highly unlikely - things may have changed.]
You are the epitome of a sour-faced Welsher - apologies to Gywnfa, Financier, Morus, et. al. … - and should look to yourself before criticising others. The people of Belfast - loyalist or Fe1n1an - were a damn site more elequant then you will ever be.
As for Iris. I would!
103. Priceless
28
The comments on that Guardian piece are eye watering. Best comment on the article is where it says ‘Mandleson tightens grip’ someone has added…..
‘of the Titanic’s steering wheel’
If thats in the Guardian then it just confirms Brown is truly up the frozen creek without a paddle. Iceberg Ahoy!!
Coldstone
tis okay. I would miss the province as most of my family are from NI and a lot still live there. The ancient history you point out feeds into the narrative but isn’t that important. It’s the fallout from the GFA that has NI politics where it is.
By signing up, Trimble damaged the UUP and the DUP smartly capitalised. It’s not the end of home rule, but the reinstatement of said home rule. Course it’s not going anywhere and the Unionists are slowly coming to terms with it.
Money and sex damages the DUP, because they are already damaged from sharing power. That doesn’t mean the UU will benefit, they’re still suffering from the GFA fallout. If TUV stand lots of candidates all bets are of. If SF gain a seat or two from a split vote then the fallout could be memorable.
FergusMac @ 103
The Telegraph says the young man involved with Iris Robinson is a Roman Catholic. That will not play well in Portadown.
Perhaps that explains why he chose a woman beyond chid bearing years. The alternative would have been a bigger sin.
Peter Robinson is finished, you cannot be a religious bigot and have your wife cuckold you with a 19 yr old from the opposite religion….
Well at least the young fella would not have had to break his religious rules and use a condom.
If only he had been a she then she would have ticked all the boxes of inappropriate relationships for a bigot.
102 - I think what happened was that the plot crystallised in people’s minds that Alan Johnson was out of the picture, which leaves David Miliband as the heir apparent. Now, he certainly muffed his moment and annoyed a lot of people, but heir apparent he still is.
I am in agonies about David Miliband. On the one hand, I think the odds on him at present are really generous. On the other hand, my spider sense is telling me that JohnLoony’s comment on the last thread:
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/01/07/quickie-poll-has-tories-up-to-42-percent/#comment-1376138
is absolutely spot on and that David Miliband will miss out. I really can’t make up my mind about whether to follow my head or my instincts. Perhaps I should lump on him on the basis that I will be able to trade the bet later. The risk with that is that he might mess up before the market has caught up with my perception of his odds.
113
The Graun gets quite a number of rightwing commeters in CIF, and the left wing ones tend to be really left wing so have never liked New Labour from the start.
Not looking good for the LibDems
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/hp/LibDem.png
116 Serf you and I thought the same thing about the advantages of a post menopausal woman to a roman catholic. Is any 60+ protestant woman safe now from the RC casanovas of the world. We must be told!
117, don’t Labour usually plump for the frontrunner?
Given recent history we must suspect they’ll go for the most obviously awful choice. Milipede is entirely possible. Or Balls.
Policeman injured in bomb attack in NI:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/8447829.stm
120
Like the LDs, Labour will pick the worst candidate. Balls will smear all his opponents..
On topic, the LDs have no real USP this election. They have little positive to say. So I suspect the plot will have zero impact on them.
119. The other option of course is women who are already pregnant..
This is my first post so hello to you all.
I read alot of history - even got a few qualifications in the subject - and it is uncanny how history keeps repeating itself. People live and die, but we continue to have the same problems. Britain is stuck in the late 1440s-1450s in my mind. The country was bankrupt, the debate was raging between factions of what to do in france regarding the hundred years war. The Yorkists - conservative and led by the public savvy Richard, Duke of York - believed every single resource should be used to keep french territory in english hands. The Lancasterians - labour led by Henry VI, pious beyond belief and always with good intentions couldnt even produce an heir with the pretty but tough Margaret of Anjou - believed the war was up. Like Henry VI, Gordon Brown has utopian values but it costs. Why plough money into a lost course. Its the same today, the conservatives are saying we must start cutting the deficit now. Labour say no its going to implode the recovery. Cameron - like York - plays the saviour, i can fix this mess. York behind the scences orchestrated rebellions in kent and cornwall - still conservative places today while the modern day version was cameron using the sun newspaper to do its vicious attack. The leadership of Henry VI was totally undermined as people within his privy council wanted different things to resolve the matter. Infighting and chaos within the privy council brought divisions and the Yorkists knew all they needed to do was to keep the same message and something would break. The country collapsed due to the divisions and the origins of the civil war, parliament the vary foundations this country and democracy liveby had begun. Two dynastic families - Lancasterian and York, Labour or Conservative - fighting for the crown because of the way government should function. The Yorkists won in the short term, York got control of Parliament and the country was happy again for a while. Then the realisation began…all York wanted was power. France was lost, the country was divided and he couldnt unite the country. The same is with Cameron. Cameron has a lead but Tories are voting for Cameron they are voting against Brown. Labour isnt voting for Brown they are voting against Cameron. Lancasterians fought for Henry VI because they didnt want York. Yorkists fought for York because they didnt want Henry VI. It resulted in a 30 year civil war. The war ended with the union of the remaining heads of lancaster and york to form the Tudor. 150 years later the monarchy fought the parliamentarians. Again a labour run government vs a conservative uprising. Cromwell was the saviour but later he failed also to do what he said he would do.
Cameron is a Yorkist, he tells us what we want to hear to get power. Brown the lancasterian is in a sinking ship with no control of his destiny. The result is absolute choas because the election of brown or cameron results in nothing. the country doesnt like either.
When a crisis happens throughout English history, the people have never supported Labour. The english heart is conservative in bad times, it wants short term fixes to problems. People become selfish, the n
[98] - I know Hannah Foster needs to encourage the party workers to put in a lot of effort, but if she wins Exeter then Cameron is headed for a landslide, not merely a working majority.
106 perhaps she will just pass a note to her solicitor for the court stating “you know where you can find me”
I think it’s unfair to call David Miliband a bottler. His choice was the frying pan or the fire.
The most inept plotters since Guy Fawkes left him in an impossible position. They were six months too late and he knew it.
If he’s being criticized for his behaviour after the coup failed ……why should he be forced by two inept plotters to eulogize about Brown’s leadership?.
126: Rog, this is also about what happened 6months, when Purnell went, he bottled it then as well.
He also bottled it in 2008, when he was pursing a ‘new’ dialogue with pieces in the guardian etc.
126 “They were six months too late and he knew it.”
But they had the PERFECT opportunity in June after the Euros. All it needed was the H&H letter then. Interesting to ponder what would have happened if they had gone live then…
But they didn’t. I can only assume that they knew then that the position was irretrievable for Labour, even under a new leader. The new Labour leader needs to be first and foremost a Leader of the Opposition for a few years. For that, Gordon has to lose them the election.
126 The cabinet’s hesitation is explained by the fact they all want to be leader.
They are in fear of being Labour’s Hestletine figure. Cast out forever as the one. If Labour do badly they will share the blame with Gordon. They all want to be the reluctant leader called to heal the split, a Hurd or a Major.
Instead, they are ending up as Labour’s Portillo, not quite installing phone lines - but failing to go over-the-top at the right moment. Milliband in particular appears to be Labour’s Portillo.
It’s a catch 22.
IMO the best guess for punters is to see Milliband future as Portilllos. A definite candidate in a post election contest, so his price could tighten, but not the eventual winner.
On the Balls tampering issue “There was no evil intent.He was just guilty of naivete.” A chap on Radio5Live just said so.
The Sun reports, YouGov’s Peter Kellner said: “These findings prove the leadership coup has been very damaging for Labour.”
He doesn’t help his reputation. He must know that it takes longer than a day for the effect of an event to fully show up in a poll, and that all the movements in that poll are within the band of statistical ‘noise’.
127. Perhaps deep down inside, D. Miliband knows that he is not really up to the job of PM, and that is why he has backed away from the chance of potentially taking in job on several occasions?
129 - As a Labour activist, who would you like to see leading your party?
130 The idea that Balls is naive? Risible. He’s as naive as the most seasoned velociraptor…
130. I think URW may have mistaken silly mid off with with a silly anti-toff.
131
There’s been **** stirring from all sides - merely means that the election campaign is underway - just not officially.
Stop Press: HH pleads guilty
Re NI from a serial lurker! I belive that the Conservatives and Unionists topped the poll in 6 of the 18 Westminster seats at the Euro Election. I am surprised that there has not been more attention given to what this could mean for the General Election. The UUP/Con alliance could prove vital and the Robinsons’ difficulties will certainly help sell the project in key seats.
139 “Stop press: HH pleads guilty”
To ****-stirring?
126, Lancastrian or Yorkiste, interesting post, shame you seemed to be cut off in your prime.
134, I agree absolutely. The shift is just noise, as we saw with the tracker over the conference season. If there is a significant impact it’ll show through later.
139 - BUT BUT BUT she said she strenuously denied the charges from the moment it happened!
78 - I would like to see NI politics becoming more open. Currently we do not have proper elections over here, just a periodic tribal headcount.
If the Robinsons X 2 difficulties and a UUP alignment with the Tories helps achieve more “normal” politics, bring more scandal on to get rid of the old guard on all sides.
What always grieved me about the GFA is that the two moderate policies (UUP and SDLP) were sacrificed by Blair, resulting in a more polarised political situation.
I hope the Peeler in Randalstown recovers/is not badly maimed.
140
I thought we’d already decided that was Balls tampering..?
Naughty naughty,
http://order-order.com/2010/01/08/bad-al-keeps-good-company/
103. I’m not sure if that is true. His name is Kirk McCambley and his father was a butcher on the Newtownards Road in Belfast, which is not an area where many Catholics live. He knew Iris because she always called into his father’s shop and was very friendly with him. When his father died Iris took it upon herself to “look after him.”
That she certainly did!
140 - Ha! She denied it all up till now
maybe they got the phone records. Doesn’t help with credibility of Cabinet members.
Harman looks very foolish today
Until a few minutes ago she was claiming total innocence - then coughs to everything in front of the bench?
Very foolish
Far worse than swearing at a copper…
126 - Welcome to the site, if possible, can you paragraph a long post like that? It is rather difficult to read as one long chunk of text.
On topic: The evidence so far says no.
And a little moan, what’s the point posting poll hints on here if the blog owner doesn’t read the comments?
Politics in Northern Ireland has finally come of age.
It is now about sex and money — just like politics anywhere else.
We never thought it would happen, but well done Iris.
150 - The DUP have been trailblazers on that front for some time. Paul Berry and Ian Paisley Jnr have covered the former and the latter already.
Richard Nabavi and Antinfrank.
The SPIN markets are readjusting th Milibands.
106 re spending plans (Batch file)
A simple question then
If the government in power with all the figures to hand cannot do this how come Brown attacks the Tories (who have none of the inside information) for failing to come up with any real spending plans …
You are Roy Hattersley and I claim my five pounds.
Hmmm,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8447784.stm
No deal done there then.
150 - Well, there is still the rather regular violent attacks on police officers to take into account. Another car bomb should focus the minds on things more important (though significantly less amusing) than Iris bunging her toyboy a few quid.
151 - A UUP member of my acquaintance just rung me all excited about the possible demise of the political family Robinson.
The main point made was ‘who the hell have they got left, Nigel Dodds?’
A fair point, the DUP is in trouble.
HILARIOUS:
Sky News team goes up Dartmoor to see the snow and gets stuck. DOH.
156. Echo’s of the SNP if Salmond were to exit stage left.
148. Remember how the Hilton story emerged out of thin air?
Wouldn’t it be remarkable if Hattie’s mobile phone records had been lost by police oversight and then after the coup attempt on Tuesday they magically reappeared?
Labour = getting on with the job of setting new benchmarks for epic fail, because it is the right thing to do.
Hattie = danger to the hardworking motoring families of this country, custodial sentence inevitable.
71. Easy win for the Lib Dems at Harrogate Woodfield. More interesting is the drop in labour vote to behind the BNP and the 1.8 swing from LibDem to tory . not good for labour and no spin in the media from the bunker !
159 - CT - the mobile phone charge was dropped.
161 The people who claim to have seen her driving whilst on the phone are being “re-educated” in eastern Siberia…
161. And grateful not to be in Peckham!
Pretty obv she copped for one charge in a deal if the other was dropped.
Sky - Harman statement, just a parking manoeuvre.
I was pleased to see from the BBC news report online that as judgment was handed down, Harriet Harman was in a Cabinet meeting, “getting on with the job”, no doubt.
gabble, Steve Hilton £80, Harriet Harman £350. Which one should resign?
Or are you going to be hypocritical and claim that it doesn’t count because it was Harriet?
Unscientific obviously butan online poll on Belfast Tele has 80% agree PR should resign.
People talk about Heseltine, a serial plotter who never got the job, but more importantly is that a coup deepens the factionalisation of a party and it takes a long time for those wounds to heal.
Margaret Thatcher suffered from the Heath/EEC faction throughout her premiership, with grumpy Ted a permanent reminder to those in his wing of the party that Thatcher’s insurgency had lost them power. Major, despite his toothache, was viewed by the Thatcherites as having profited from her demise and having turned to the EU wing/wets for support. IDS as one of the Maastricht rebels suffered from the loyalists throughout his leadership, seen as a cause of Major’s defeat.
David Cameron suffers less but the Thatcherite wing hasn’t accepted him as one of their own.
Brown has suffered from Autumn 2007 from the Blairites, part revenge on his own disloyalty and plotting, part loss of power on their side. The left feel no loyalty to him as they feel they were used in his plotting and disregarded afterwards.
Balls would definitely suffer as Brown has, from the remaining 3rd way advocates. David Miliband from the Brownites and the left. So who could be the candidate that can build a consensus across and yet not suffer the aftermath of factionalism that Blair’s forced early retirement has produced?
Part of the attraction of Ed Miliband is that he is seen as bridging the gap between the two major factions, though probably not the left wing. Not sure he has the leadership ability (but he hasn’t had to show any so hard to judge) and being the not-Balls/Not David Miliband candidate probably means he would disappoint both sides if elected.
166 - There has to be a way of combining the Hattie and Iris stories with the famous Gillian Taylforth seat belt affair.
158. TGOH, wishful thinking , plenty of good people there, would be a major setback but not fatal.
From the BBC,
“…. it emerged this morning that the first minister’s wife is flying off to the French Alps to escape the media glare. It is understand she is to spend the next week at a luxury chalet near Chamonix at the foot of Mont Blanc.”
The more I hear about Iris, the more I like her. She’s certainly very different to what I thought she was like based on her public utterances.
Iris is setting a new blueprint for “contrite politicians”.
Compare this to the lumpen, mumbling and apologising Jackie Smith. No more “… inadvertent mistakes … I have paid the money back … within the rules at the time” New Labour bull.
Just a straight “I’m to ill to take questions and I’m going on hols.”
———–
156 Isn’t this Wee Jeffrey’s big chance? He has stabbed everyone else in the back. Looks like he is the last man standing.
171. What were the highlights of the Swinney years ?
Are you thinking of Sturgeon (guffaw) or MacAskill ?
172 - Not a Roman Holiday?
170 - Both political scandals are a real blow to their parties.
On topic, If martin day’s snow theory from last year holds true then any phone pole taken ATM with all the schools closed will again show a decent boost for the lib dems. Something to consider anyway.
177: Thank god my point about Iris Robertson which I got muddled with Iris Murdoch is caught in moderation.
134. This is I’m afraid just another example of the pollsters ramping their product - a subject I have posted on several times in recent weeks.
176. I would think it makes March GE even more unlikely too.
With Labour now heading towards the 150 seat level if this stuff continues, it is clear that they will however keep about 40 seats in Scotland. At present the 40 seats represents 11% of the total. Post GE the ScotsLab could be 27%.
A party that would be even more dominated by the Jocks than what we have previously seen.
172 - Noooooo!!!!! Nigel Dodds is surely the man to take over. If it was Jeffrey… I shudder at the thought.
178: Robertson=Robinson. I’m awful with names today.
How will the polls react if there is a 0.7 positive growth figure for the last quarter of 2009 ? How much of a boost to labour will it be and how can the tories fight back ?
175 - Following a Boundary Commission review Iris Robinsons Constituency is to be renamed Down Down, Deeper and Down.
Daily Politics seem to have a poll on Gordon Brown, today from 12.00.
181. Is there a market on Ulster seats yet? If not I think we need one, with say the number of seats per party. Plenty of scope for some volatility among the unionist seats…
One story that will evolve is people’s anger with the lack of grit.
People are stuck in their homes because schools are closed and residential streets are not gritted. People are getting angry.
Most people are old enough to remember that this didnt happen in previous decades. There is no resources for gritting but there is money for Global Warming.
Labour will get blamed and people are getting very, very angry.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6980037.ece
Gordon Brown was forced to surrender a string of concessions to senior Cabinet ministers to secure his leadership after Wednesday’s coup attempt
Surely nothing would invigorate the UUP more than Donaldson becoming leader of the DUP.
Tories gain East Belfast!
184. Surely you can link Status Quo > Bolivia > Cameron > Eton in less than 5 posts from there tim ?
118 antifrank (plus tim and others): I think antifrank’s explanation regarding a realisation that AJ is now out the running is a good one, but if it is correct then the markets are a bit behind; his chances had already receded IMO.
As for the dilemma on who to back: I’m on both DM and EM at good odds, and I’m very happy with that. I think it is wise to cover both. I suspect that sentiment will shift around between the two over the coming months. Yesterday it shifted towards DM, but this morning there’s a bit a swingback towards EM, as tim notes. My hunch is that the swingback towards EM will continue for a bit, as people realise that DM hasn’t helped his cause with his dithering, lack of courage, and his possible if temporary support for the damaging plot. EM, on the other hand, looks loyal but not too closely identified with Brown, and is therefore well-positioned - if his brother can be persuaded to stand aside.
Just hearing the news about Mr & Mrs Robinson - golly - they’ve had an interesting start to 2010!
184 - I guess they ruled out Cherry Valley.
185
I doubt it will be as per Patrick Troughton in ‘The Omen’ …
169. Excellent post Ted. So who will be next leader of the Labour Party?
That person is amongst my “Dirty Dozen” punted candidates and I have backed him to good money at 100/1.
The forgotten man in this contest, the senior statesman of the party who will become Labour’s Michael Howard figure.
Who can it be?
I’ll say it again.
It’s Peter Hain.
I wonder if the coup was arranged by the Cabinet in order to force Gordon to change tack in the way they have been trying to get him to do over the last year.
186, I anticipate it will be a crock of shit due to them typically using ComRes unweighted polls, which Mr. Smithson has previously torn to shreds for being essentially worthless.
185 - Going Down, surely?
187. How can you use the words “volatility” and “unionist” in the same sentence??? NO! NEVER! NO! NO! NO!
188: Maybe the plot was not to ‘oust’ Brown, but actually to force him to change his plan for the elction away from core-vote/class war.
@172:
I always find startling acts of hypocrisy from politicians tends to make me warm to them.
Moral relativist lefties seem to have elevated hypocrisy to the one true act of apostasy from their church, but I’ve always found consistency to be an artefact of a stultified mind.
The one thing I do demand is that the acts of hypocrisy be both shameless and interesting.
196 - I wonder if the coup was arranged by the Cabinet in order to force Gordon to change tack in the way they have been trying to get him to do over the last year.
——————————————————————-
I think you’re right. I wrote this earlier:
Why are we calling the plot a ‘failure’?
I believe it is becoming increasingly obvious that it was a resounding success. I do not believe that it was ever intended to topple Brown - although that must have been Plan ‘B’ if the plot did not reach it’s true objective.
The Blairites’ true objective was to move the PLP away from Brown’s/Ball’s class war and Tory cuts electoral strategy and back towards the centre ground - which they believe is their only hope of electoral success. We’re getting confirmation that He Who Must Not Be Named has now been placed firmly in charge of electoral strategy - so objective fully achieved.
I don’t believe that they wanted to get rid of Brown - not yet anyway. They must realise that there is a fair chance they will not win the election, and they need Brown there to blame it all on him. Incidentally, I am increasingly convinced that they’ll end up pushing Brown out ‘for health reasons’ even if he does win the election or achieve a hung parliament.
I think there’s a simple reason for Milliband’s long silence - he was lined up by the Blairites to take over if Brown didn’t budge. They couldn’t make a threat without being fully prepared to act on it.
The choice of H&H was astute - a reasonable amount of clout as ex-ministers ensured that the plot was taken seriously by the Brownites. On the other hand, as has-beens with axes to grind and who are not standing for the next election, the actual damage they could do to the PLP was contained and repairable. The question I have is: were they duped and used by the plotters or were they aware of exactly what was going on?
And finally, the cherry on the cake: persistent rumours being spread around that Harman was behind the plot. Of course, the fact that until yesterday she was the one anointed to lead electoral strategy rather than the Dark Lord is pure coincidence….
195. Peter Hain and ’statesman’ in the same post…hmmm…you’re having larf, aren’t you St.John?
197 - MD - no doubt you’re right but it has never stopped us discussing them
195 but can we have a labour party run by an orange man?
203. Larfing all the way to the bank runnymede!
but Billericay what’s the prolonged freeze going to do to the Q1 GDP figures? We might see an immediate slip back. Those figures will come out in the middle of a 6th May camp
[188] - It seems that the wrangling continues. The article in the Times states that Harman has been given more control of the election campaign. The Guardian has stated that this control has gone to Mandelson. Incidentally, these are both the people who the readers of each paper would least like to see in control of the election campaign. All good fun in a macabre sort of way.
205 Constan. The Man from Del Monte - he says Yes!
202. Excellent post Aston - well worth posting twice. Very astute and convincing. I was not persuaded the plot was really about ousting Brown (at least for now) and this analysis makes perfect sense.
Line-up for today’s DP - Ken Livingstone, Fraser Nelson, and Kevin Maguire. So nice balanced panel.
Easy win for the Lib Dems at Harrogate Woodfield last night, a safe Lib Dem seat where the Lib Dem elected, I think in 2007, defected to the Conservatives, sadly recently died and hence the by election. Therefore goes down as a gain.
Lib Dem 688
Cons 246
BNP 92
Labour 72
However an indicator of the Lib Dem vote holding in a seat they have to hold at the General if they are to get their target number?
by david (s) January 8th, 2010 at 9:17 am
Rubbish
The LibDems won this last time, and their man walked over the room to vote with the Tory party. Not an Election gain in my eyes.
Story of the week by the girl that Hates the Tory party.
“I was 15 when I lost my virginity, but I made my boyfriend wait three months, so I am really proud of myself for that. The thought of being intimate with someone you don’t know really freaks me out. I think men should earn that intimacy.” Cheryl Cole discusses her relationship history with Glamour magazine.
In the General Election I shall be voting UKIP because thats where my heart lies. It’s only a gesture as I live in a constituency that will return a Labour MP even if he was a cut out image of Adolf Hitler. If however I lived in a constituency where my vote counted I would be voting Tory as I see them as the only realistic chance to eventually rid us of the millstone that is Europe.
It gets even better http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=4402145&op=1&o=all&view=all&subj=272873841415&aid=-1&oid=272873841415&id=653698114#/photo.php?pid=3830984&op=1&o=all&view=all&subj=272873841415&aid=-1&oid=272873841415&id=549471244&fbid=244592171244
Re 188 - Rubbish. I’m old enough to remember tough winters in the past. The pavements and side roads weren’t gritted. Only the main roads were cleared. The big difference was that people were tougher then, didn’t whinge and just got on with their lives as best as possible. They planned ahead, bought food in and put winter tyres on their cars and strong boots on their feet etc. The snow stories are getting very, very silly now.