PB/AR poll has the swing 4.5 pc bigger in the marginals
February 24th, 2010
But in the national poll the gap gets smaller
Below are the shares from a new PB/Angus Reid poll based on the response a 4,004 national sample base conducted last week from Tues-Fri with 1254 in the marginals. There are three segments which have been separately past voted weighted.
The sole purpose of the marginals polling is to help establish whether voters are behaving differently in the key battle-grounds as three other pollsters have suggested in recent months.
What’s critical is how the swing in the marginals compared with the overall national position.
The overall national picture
This is from the full sample and shows comparison with the last PB/Angus Reid poll
CON 38% (40)
LAB 26% (26)
LD 19% (18)
So although the base figures are a bit different the trend is the same as from other firms. Nationally the gap between the Tories and Labour is getting smaller and the 12% deficit is the best Labour position since the PB/Angus Reid polling series started last October.
The LAB>CON swing from the general election in the national poll is 7.5%
The LAB-CON marginals
This is based on polling in Labour 150 most vulnerable seats where the shares in 2005 were C33:L43:LD17.CON 42% (33)
LAB 28% (43)
LD 15% (17)
So overall these shares equate to a 12% LAB>CON swing since the 2005 general election which is 4.5% higher than the overall national swing - further evidence that the marginals are performing very differently.
The LD held seats
This is based on polling in all the Lib Dem seats from 2005 where the aggregate shares then were C29:L19:LD46CON 33% (29)
LAB 16% (19)
LD 39% (46)
These equate to a LD>CON swing of 5.5% which won’t make comfortable reading for Nick Clegg’s party.
I think that overall these are important findings and do support everything we have seen from the marginals from YouGov, ICM, and Ipsos-MORI. The key marginals - most of them seats picked up in Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide are seeing disproportionate moves to the Tories.
UPDATE: The dataset is available here.
Mike Smithson
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Great work,Mike-thanks!
They are really interesting results and ‘feel’ more credible than Labour’s teeny-weeny voter shedding that the other polls imply.
I think the second set of Lab and Con previous values are the wrong way round!
4. Belay that! I see where they come from - d’oh!!!
15% for Others in Lab Con marginals?
What sort of majority would this create?
Come on, tim, let’s hear more from you about how doomed the Tory election campaign is.
Very interesting stuff. Obviously we’ll need to check the detail, but if this is anything like correct then it is very good news for the Tories. My initial reaction is that the differential swing in the Lab/Con seats is expected, although it’s bigger than I would have guessed.
The swing in the LD/Con seats is also very encouraging for the Tories.
As Mike implies, whatever you think about the absolute figures with AR’s methodology (and in particular the lack of past-vote-recall correction) comes up with, the differential swing should not depend much, if at all, on this.
I only post rarely but this ought to shut up some of the silly panickers on here. If only we could do something similar for the NuLab trolls
Excuse the mathematical ignorance, but do the Lib seat figures mean that the Libs are going to hang on to all these seats ?
re 6. Yesterday’s ICM poll had a 13% others total.
This is all because, as I’ve explained before, that AR do not weight by likelihood to vote and all the signs are that the others will be less inclinded to turn out
Very good poll results for the Tories…and ominous for the Lib Dems; quite a few seats will go down on that measure…
Old Gordo denies it fully
But all his excuses seem woolly
“The son of a Manse, I
Never once hurt a fly..
Now who the f*ck called me a bully?”
ha - the forces of hell will be despatched back to where they belong come May 6th
8 - I won’t be making any predictions about a poll showing 15% for UKIP/BNP/Grn in Tory/Lab marginals thank you very much.
And neither will anyone else with any sense.
Well there’s a surprise!
Wow. Uncomfortable for Labour and the Lib Dems there.
Actually that’s HORRENDOUS for Labour. Losing a third of their support in the marginals!
They must really hope there is something seriously wrong with ARS polling.
re 9. Spot Richard. This is all about the differential swing and we have the same pattern that we’ve seen in every such survey in recent times.
38/26/19 = 24 seat majority on UKPR
Is that really a Lib Dem > Con swing of 5.5, Mike?
Just checking….
The marginals poll is spot on in my opinion. For example in Lincoln where Labour hold a majority of 4700 the odds on a Tory victory are 1/5, pretty much a formality in the bookies eyes.
7 The key point. If the marginals situation is broadly speaking reversed since 2005. Are we looking at a Tory majority of about 40-50? (Labour’s notional 2005 majority) on these figures?
if you apply the difference between AR national and AR marginals to one of the other recent national polls - which is a very rough measure but might be necessary since AR national polls are so different especially on the labour number - then u get something like 42 to 36/37 in the marginals. is that enough for 326?
16 - You’re right. The Tories must be on about 50% in the marginals in reality.
12 - ICM included Scotland.
Do ARS marginals include Scotland?
It’ll be interesting to see Andy’s stuff tomorrow with these figures.
A “4,004 national sample”? Wow, that’s impressive.
What’s the margin of error?
18. But it’s also wholly in line with what we have seen in this parliament in terms of ‘real votes in real elections’ - i.e. the massive collapse in Labour vote shares in Crewe and especially Norwich.
21 - That’s what the numbers say.
Taxi for Clegg
By my maths, of the 10% support shed by Labour and the LDs in LD seats, only 4% has gone to the Tories - the rest presumably to “others”.
26 - it includes the Lab/Con marginals there
Well done to Sky News.
I’ve always wondered why Sky doesn’t take the lead of Fox News in the US and become the foremost news organisation in the UK.
This was a major scoop for Sky. If anything the claim made by Alistair Darling puts Rawnsleys revelations in context.
It is interesting that Rawnsley actually made two key points about the Labour leadership since Brown seized power in his November 2006 coup.
First there is a destructive and malicious climate of bullying and intimidation at the heart of 10 Downing Street. We all know this now. What Brown does is not about getting productivity out of people - it is destructive, malicious and pure dictatorship at the heart of UK government. Brown is truly an abomination who makes a mockery of our democratic constitution. Unelected to his position, he uses intimidation, threats, abuse and violence to get his way. (Even the Governor of the BofE says so.) Darling has described 10 Downing Street ‘forces of hell’ being unleashed on him. Is this the way to run what is supposed to be a democratic country?
Second and more serious Rawnsley is saying that Brown’s leadership is utterly incompetent. To quote : ‘One of Brown’s most loyal supporters in the Cabinet described the state of Number 10 as “chaos”. Nor was he good at masking it from opponents, who could tell that he was “just overwhelmed by the pressures of being Prime Minister,” says Vince Cable, the Liberal Democrat deputy leader and Treasury spokesman. Even the basic housekeeping wasn’t being done. Letters from important people, including MPs, went unanswered. An aide to one senior minister lamented that when they called Number 10 “no-one answers the phone”. There were cases of foreign embassies not being told whether a visiting leader was going to be granted a meeting with the Prime Minister and dates being muddled up.’
It has been confirmed that a senior 10 Downing Street civil servant had lunch with Rawnsley in November. In other words his sources come at the highest levels.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/gordon-brown/7300771/No-10-mandarin-had-dinner-with-bullying-claim-author-Andrew-Rawnsley.html
Britain is now the third most indebted nation in the world in terms of its deficit, and the most indebted nation in the world when dividing total public and private debt by the population.
Revelations that a secret policy document was written in the year 2000 to flood the UK with third world migrants proves epic mismanagement of the UK by Labour, with a FoI release of the secret papers.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1249797/Labour-threw-open-doors-mass-migration-secret-plot-make-multicultural-UK.html
Enough of this regime.
Also I don’t think there is any independent commentator in Britain that doubts that Brown has had a car-crash PMQ’s for the third week in a row.
He is just getting worse and worse.
Why he wants to be PM, when he is utterly unsuited to the role, I do not know.
It is said that some men know only ‘power lust and a mania for attention’ - Freud. Brown is such a man. He is unsuited to the role. He is unfit for the job. He should resign.
fpt
tim at 489 You keep saying this nonsense about Darling, why would he care about the budget?
If his budget saves Gordon and they win the election Darling will be sacked
If his budget fails to win the election, Darling will be booted out.
Your logic makes no sense at all.
by voreas February 24th, 2010 at 4:39 pm
Yup, thats it, the Tories will get this election based on this data.
I think this will be the very last election where any attention is paid to core votes and safe seats.
By the way, why is Gordon Brown’s cabinet full of ministers from safe seats. They couldn’t care less if he loses the election.
Surely any good tactical prime Minister would surround himself with MP’s from marginal seats to make sure that he gets the best out of them.
Simple when you think about it. Imagine a home secretary who’s seat is nailed on Labour everytime. I wouldn’t care less about losing the election. At least my seat was safe, and 5 years in nice safe cozy opposition, with absolutley no responsibilities. Luvverly jubbly.
re 26. Yes.
16 - But you will make comment after comment on a daily tracker poll?
Clegg needs to get a voice and some policies or the third force in terms of seats at Westminster will be the SNP.
My seat of Shrew and Atcham looking in the bag based on the above. Locally, expect lib numbers to drop from 11k back to 6k as less resonance from the libs about Middle east wars, which helped them last time.The 1k margin will increase by a factor of 10 based on the above.
This marginal seat will get a whole less marginal.
To express this another way, the swing in the marginals is 60% higher than the swing nationally. 4.5/7.5 = 0.6. Fascinating stuff! And some welcome news for backers of the Tories.
Also the narrowing of the overall Tory lead with PB/AR is actually encouraging. All the other polls are showing a narrowing of the lead. For PB/AR not to pick this up would reduce it’s credibility.
32 -There aren’t many so the English Lab/Con Marginals have an others figure of just under 15%.
Someones having a laugh.
18.
“They must really hope there is something seriously wrong with ARS polling.”
As will every other polling organisation in the land!
28 - so on a proportionate basis, given roughly 10% of seats are LD held, that would make a 400 sample in the LD seats, which implies a bigger MOE?
In the LibDem seats, the biggest gainers are Others, up 6% apparently. The LibDem -> Con swing is partly about LibDem -> Con movement, but partly about LibDem -> Other movement, which doesn’t paint quite as poor a situation for the LibDems in LibDem/Con marginals.
* Paging Rod Crosby … Paging Rod Crosby … *
Very reassuring, thanks Mike.
I’m no statistician but if ARS have it right ICM Populus Yougov ComRes and all the rest better shut up shop because there’s something seriously wrong with their methodology
…and of course this poll is also in line with the other pattern we have seen of Labour MPs chucking in the towel in seats which on paper have large notional majorities, especially in the Midlands…
31 Figures,really. LD seats in the West Country have a lot of activity by UKIP and the Greens.
Presumably, most of the “others” in the marginals are accounted for by SNP and PC votes in Scotland and Wales.
This is pointing to a 50 plus Tory majority, which I think is right.
I assume the Lib Dem seats includes those like Cambridge and Hornsey which the Lib Dems picked up from Labour?
Oh dear. Perhaps Gordon will save me with a personal intervention.
Just after Andy Cooke’s first article someone published a link to some US article analysing UK general elections and showing a sort of “winners bonus” which seemed to bear out greater swings in marginals. There was to be a second part but I forgot to bookmark - anyone recall it?
A few preliminary thoughts. Most of the gap closing has come from Labour ticking upwards towards 30 in most polls. With YouGov, ICM and ARS this week the lead shrinking has come solely from Tories slipping. Frankly that idiot Winterton has something to answer for as well as some avoidable errors by CCHQ over the past couple of weeks.
Richard - I tend to agree. I still think ARS has Labour a touch too low - though they have plumbed new depths over the past year. I keep coming back to Nick Robinson’s comments about lots of Labour hatred and uncertainty about the Tories.
For the LibDems, this crystallises the problems they can face in a choice election - squeeze. It appears that Labour have slipped 3%, so has that gone to the Tories or to the LibDems? If the later, than the movement of LibDem -> Tory would be even higher and bearing in mind that Labour voters may not be motivated on election day where they sit in third place, what does that do to counter-balance the incumbency effect?
I really think the Midlands will be the difference between a hung parliament or a small Tory majority and a whopping stonker of a Tory majority.
Labour are facing heart of England annihilation.
The devil will be in the detail such as what do ARS regard as a marginal and what is the geograhic spread etc.
Having said that my initial impression is that pre campaign the Lib Dem figures in their marginals are managable but for Labour the numbers are worryingly low. The caveat is do we buy into the overall ARS methodology for Labour that whilst in tune with the narrowing of the national gap is still out of line with other pollsters.
You takes your pollster and takes your chance !!
Blimey! Six new threads all in one day?!? Opinion polls flip-flopping all over the place? I just want the whole caboodle to be over and done with. Can we just fast-forward to 6th May and forget about opinion polls?
Anyway, how did they do opinion polls in the 1980s before they changed all their methodology? Did they just take the raw figures without any “adjustments” at all? Perhaps we could go back to the same method. At least it would be consistent, instead of lots of guesswork of “past vote recall” and “spiral of silence adjuster” and “likely to vote” stuff. At least we would know where we were.
35. Of course the Shadow Cabinet is full of Tories from marginal seats such as Witney, Tatton, Richmond (N. Yorkshire), Surrey Heath…
How many people were polled
i) overall?
ii) in the Lab Con marginals?
iii) in the LD Con marginals?
I assume ii) and iii) are included in i) ?
47
Would be interesting to see a list of marginals and which Labour MP’s are not standing again in them.
Is this equivalent to a Conservative overall majority of about 50 seats? It’s ok for a first term.
18. David. Couldn’t you persuade your employers to ditch Yougov and go for ARS? Then they could put their results on the front page
Can anybody get a bet on the tories winning Solihull. It had a 9k margin to the tories in 2001 and was lost by 200 vote in 2005, but libs have gone down like a lead balloon locally.
Seen as being a bit too airy-fairy on immigration which is an issue there as well as the need to keep manufacturing jobs.
My mate Andy is a tory-ish bank manager there and gets an awful lot of economic feedback on what the problems are.
Interesting, I suspect that it shows that when change is in the air that the places that are most susceptible to change change most. That is good news for the Conservatives becuase it suggests that the low hanging fruit will largely drop into their lap without too much effort. Indeed I would hazard a guess that the first 50 seats the Conservatives need to gain are probably out of contention in reality.
40 Don’t get why you’re so surprised-the expenses scandal has offered plenty of scope for other parties to eat into the Lab/Con vote.
UKPR 200 Conservative Targets list for peoples edification:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/conservative-target-seats
re 46 All the pollsters you mention are recidivist Labour over-staters.
46 Roger - That’s not quite right. ARS might have the differential swing roughly right, but over-estimate the national swing. So it’s perfectly possible for ICM etc to be more accurate on the national vote shares, but for this poll to tell us that the Tory seats number will be much higher than UNS would suggest on those national shares.
43 - Remember it could be LDem->Tory movement AND Tory->Others(eg UKIP) movement…
The Lib Dem/Con figures equate to around 20 Tory gains.
It is my view that some of this is exaggerated by Labour voters “forgetting” they are in a LD/Con marginal and is something we see at every election. A drop of 3% for Labour in these seats simply isn’t realistic in my view and a campaign will almost certainly flush out a further 3-4% to the Lib Dems from this figure reducing Tory gains to around 15.
Beyond that, much will depend on the way Clegg and local campaigns deal with the “we like our MP but want Labour out” issue which we get on the doorstep. Poorly, and he might be 15 down to the Tories only partially offset by gains from Labour. Well, and he might limit it to as few as 5, with a net overall gain of seats. This is a key test for the Party.
FPT
Jupiter1, you have weird taste, I grant thee!
It looks bad news for Clegg they could lose 24 seats to Tories even though they might pick up some seats from Brown. It is also bad new for Brown and excellent news for Cameron
59. MTF - actually such a chicken run list, carefully filtered, might conceivably be a useful betting tool.
Why can’t the labour party see that only a switch of leader will save this election for them.
They have to want to lose this election. Thats the only explanation for their inertia on this.
God they’re so stupid. So stupid, it beggers belief.
61 - LOL
All marginals polling has suggested that there will be reversal of the tactical voting which makes me much happier about the 6 point headline lead.
65 - that implies 20 LD losses. Allowing for a few slip ups and some gains from Labour, that implies a LD outcome pretty much where the spreads have them.
Scottish Lab/Con marginals are so few that they probably won’t make any difference to the GB figure for that.
Including the Scottish LD seats in a single GB figure was probably a mistake. The data is much less revealing than it should have been. Worth redoing this for England only.
Will L see post 20.
This is basically in line with other marginal polls then, yes?
I know someone said the national lead translates to a baxtered majority of 24, but surely if the marginals poll is correct it will be greater.
Sticking with my 50-70 majority prediction.
As well as the Midlands, Wales and the North of England will play a significant role in determining the electoral result. In Morley & Outwood, I stand ready to play my democratic role in the downfall of Balls.
And this was all taken before Bullygate, Forces of Hell and now Stafford hospital failing…
69 - SNP I’d agree with pretty much all of that. O/T have some interesting news from our friend in Devon you might like to see.
If the Tories are sensible they will most likely continue to focus on these 150 odd marginals rather than get greedy and spread their resources more widely in pursuit of bigger majorities. That’s why i think the 7/2 Hills offer on 325-349 looks good value, although I can only get a few £ on today.
69 - A net gain would be astonishing against a Tory comeback when you think which seats the Lib Dems have gained in the past 20 years.
If they switched to Caroline Flint or Andy Burnham now, all those marginals would snap back into shape, almost overnight.
Deliciously confusing. On the face of it.
Or is it? If anything this poll confirms what we know. The Tory lead is in serious decline against Labour overall, down from 17 at its peak to 12 now, according to ARS. All polls confirm this, they just have different scores.
However the Tories are doing much better in the marginals, sufficient to ensure a Cammo victory even if the UNS swing in their favour is poor. Again this is confirmed in other polls.
Brown won’t be calling an election any day soon, if he fears these figures are even partly accurate (and he will). He’ll go long and hope that the trend continues in his favour.
So the message to the Tories is pretty f*cking obvious. Stop the stupid mistakes, focus relentlessly on the economy, attack Labour where it hurts - and get the nastier pundits and lesser politicians to focus on Labour’s record on crime and immigration and tax.
And keep it simple: Tories will deliver Lower taxes, Lower debt, Lower immigration, Lower crime and Less interference from Europe. The Five Ls.
That should just about see them home.
65, no Morley & Outwood.
73, a leadership change would be a bad thing for Labour. Too late, potentially divisive, and it’d go to a man-hating luantic.
I also think, whilst welcoming the poll results, we shouldn’t go over the top. It’s months until polling day. Things got get better or worse.
I see the headline in the Telegraph
IT WOS ASHCROFT WOT WON IT …
…. in the marginals
71. Do not think so, there is the Lib Dem squeeze on the Labour and Green vote to follow and the campaign itself.
Lib Dems look comfortable. If you believed loads of posters on this site the Conservatives would have been leading in the Lib Dem marginals.
Compared to their situation pre election in 1979. 1997 and 2001, these results are very good.
I am more confident than ever the Lib dems will get 75 seats maybe more.
Would this suggest, as I predicted on my own blog this morning, that the rise in the Labour vote share is due to them picking up disgruntled voters who abstained in 2005 but are being coaxed back by the sheer gut-wrenching panic the thought of a Tory government seems to induce in Labour loyalists? These people would disproportionately live in the “heartland” areas - the North of England, London, Scotland and some of the urban West Midlands seats (e.g. Erdington, Ladywood and the Stoke seats)
In which case, might it be Labour that start piling up huge majorities in safe seats while they haemorrhage the marginals - as per the Cooke analysis, which is starting to look very smart indeed, smarter than I thought at the time? It could be very interesting indeed.
So the Conservatives have a 12% lead overall, and a 14% lead in the Labour-held marginals. It is a wipeout. A 50 seat Conservative majority.
Angus Reid has a reputation for being one of the most reliable pollsters in the world.
It’s no wonder that so many Labour MP’s are retiring at the next election. They must have had local feedback telling them this for months already. Why waste effort on an election you know you are going to lose? So they all retired - Hoon, Purnell, etc.
What I do not understand is why ICM and Yougov are adding in massive biases to their polls to rig them in favour of Labour.
There is no evidence that Labour has ever been under-estimated in polls in the last 50 years, after data is weighted. All recent local, euro, national elections show that Labour is consistently over-estimated in polls. Hence Smithson’s rule that the poll that shows Labour in the worst position is the most accurate.
‘Adjustments’ in favour of Labour AFTER weighting is taken into account are outrageous. How does ICM, ComRes and Yougov justify introducing such massive biases?
Well done to Mike for spotting this.
78 Morris, could you stretch to supporting an undemocratic downfall for Ed?
87. Well we all know that whatever the polls show, and indeed whatever the results are, the Lib Dems will always go from strength to strength.
This compares to the GE result which is always unrealistic in my view. Did AR do a similar poll at this stage of the electoral cycle 5 years ago? That would make for a better comparison. At least we would be comparing like with like.
90, the first weapon in my armoury is the vote. The second weapon is some sort of giant artillery gun, capable of firing a goggle-eyed freak into the heart of the sun.
Tabman February 24th, 2010 at 4:50 pm
Yes the LDs falling to 50 to 55 after losing 20 and then gaining a few from Labour and a couple from the Conservatives.
However based on this poll if a further 2 party squeeze happens then we could see Lib Dems fall into the 40s. That would be a serious melt down to drop by a 1/3. Probably force Clegg to resign.
Whilst fully and totally taking tim’s concerns on board about this poll and the sheer incredulity of those ‘othes’ in the marginals.
Yippee!!!!!!!!!
I’m off out for some more IHT planning for non-millionaires to celebrate…. can’t rely on George to do it for them given the state of the books (thanks GB).
Per Wells, I make the 150th Tory-Lab marginal, Cannock Chase. Notional L 50.9% C 30.2%. Per above: L 35.9% C 39.2%. So would indicate over 150 gains from Labour, maybe more like 160-170?
On LDs, say North Dorset, LD 48.8% C 37.9% and per above LD 41.8% C 41.9%!! So about theoretical 20 gains.
So, total, Con gains about 180-190 per above. So about 400 seats per above. In reality somewhat less but does seem to show Con still on track.
Usual caveats apply.
21. Yes: Swing = (LD fall + Con gain) / 2.
((46-39)+(33-29))/2 = 5.5
140 out of 150 Con/Lab marginals are in England.
So Ars are projecting a 14% Others figure in English marginals.
Well the betting implications of this are obvious for anyone who believes this stuff.
Go and back the BNP and UKIP at 12/1 and 10/1 respectively to get large vote shares.
83 “If they switched to Caroline Flint or Andy Burnham now, all those marginals would snap back into shape, almost overnight.”
You’re joking, right?
A change of leader now would only make things worse. It’s far too late for that.
re 92. AR - Canada’s most accurate pollster - only started published polls in the UK last year.
Of the current pollsters only 2 - Populus and ICM - are operating the same broad methodology as they did ahead of the last election. So historical comparisons are tricky.
96. I’m sure you don’t mean North Dorset which is a Tory held seat.
What’s interesting is how Angus Reid is finally converging with the other pollsters - converging with where the others were four months ago, I mean. They’re becoming the ‘glimpse back in time’ pollster - on polling day we can look at the AR figures and say “now, just as a bit of fun, here’s how the country would have voted if the election had been held in January”.
Mike - have you seen the figures for political donations in the fourth quarter of 2009?
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/party-finance/party-finance-analysis/party-finance-analysis-Q4-2009#DA
You could use these figures as a tie-in to this ‘poll of the marginals’ thread… the gap between the Conservatives and Labour is pretty massive.
94 - TC. But there’s no evidence of a 2-party squeeze on the Lib Dems in recent polling. The LD share has held up consistently in the 17-20 range. And, if anything, in LD/Other seats ths squeeze is likely to go the other way.
84. Go long Sean? Parliament expires in June.
I know all focus is on ARS but aren’t we due another Ipsos-Mori about now?
These numbers are breathtaking.
If correct the votes to seats conversion is even better than Andy Cooke’s analysis suggests.
Suppose, hypothetically, on GE day Con only lead Lab nationally by 2%.
These numbers mean that for determining the result in Con/Lab marginals it would be the same as UNS with an 11% lead.
ie Balls loses his seat even if Con only lead by 2% nationally.
Astonishing.
101-Mid Dorset and North Poole!!
Is the behaviour in LD Held seats the same as in LD Target seats?
Yet more proof that the swing is greater in marginals. Poor old UNS.
107. “If correct the votes to seats conversion is even better than Andy Cooke’s analysis suggests.”
All the more reason to take the marginals figures with a heavy dose of salt.
98 tim - You are focussing on the wrong figures. We know that AR over-estimates Others and under-estimates Labour, compared with other pollsters. What is more, we’ve got a pretty good idea why that is, in particular weighting to reported last vote without a correction for false recall. But what is interesting here is the differential swing in the marginals - that is what we need to focus on, and that is where any questions about the methodology should be concentrated.
No doubt Rod Crosby will be on to do just that…
Ohhh! This poll is goooooooood.
Ayia Napa! Ayia Napa!
104 Tabbers. Where are you going to place the resources of Tabman PLC during the election ??
Blunkett sends out begging bowl..
interesting bit about Morley donations
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2010/02/blunkett-says-osborne-trying-to-buy-the-election.html
99 - especially a switch to Burnham or Flint. They should just put an array of vegetables in charge; that’ll probably do a better job than either of those two, or in the incumbent for that matter.
PORCWAS.
107, I’d be staggered if that happens. I know the Tories are targeting this seat and are hopeful, but it does remain what should be a rock solid Labour seat. It’s only the combination of Labour’s unpopularity and Balls being as attractive a prospect as romantic weekend with Gordon Brown that makes it winnable.
I think, David Roe that the 5.5% swing from LD to Con is in Labour held seats, where the Lib Dems are not in the running.
I think that in Lib Dem held seats, the swing is only 4%.
However, if one assumes that the Tory vote is ready to go and on the point of boiling over, while the Lib Dem vote is still thinking things over, that is quite encouraging for the Lib Dems.
98 - Maybe you could offer everyone else a crack at that evens Others (UKIP/BNP/Grn) over 6% nationally, tim, if AR is such a load of rubbish?
The inclusion of Scotland in marginal comparisons, esp LD/Con, seriously distorts the figures. Based on these figures I’m very happy with my standstill LD prediction (ie c60 seats) - oh, and a Cameron majority of 5. That would make life very interesting!
Based on the UKPR 200 Conservative Targets List there are in excess of 180 (of 23 Libdems, 1 Other, 156+ Labour - list only shows seats up to 10.5% swing) or more seats at risk to falling to the Conservatives.
Clearly not all these will fall but just imagine if that figure national figure starts increasing again….
118 - LOL, Casino
103. Just looking at Table 6 there. I don’t see Lord (Michael) Ashcroft.
Or Bearwood Securities.
SO not only is he ‘hiding’ his tax status he must be ‘hiding’ his donations as well
At least that’s what I assume BenM, SO and all the Labour frothers would say.
119. The big problem for Labour is perhaps how they are taking their eye off the ball in West Yorks to ensure Balls is returned. They might save Morley and Outwood but it is going to be at the expense of Dewsbury, Wakefield etc.
120. Curious
As it plainly says in the article those are Liberal Democratic seats….
115 - Jack. Usual place, to no avail of course, with perhaps a couple of excursions a little westwards on a more hopeful basis. Will you be defending the barricades form the Yellow Peril form the North or the Home Counties?
125, when the Muslim fellow who likes massage chairs was in the news, I recall a pber stating his seat (Dewsbury, I think) was a dead cert loss. You’re perhaps right about the general idea though.
I hope Balls loses.
If you look at Anthony Wells’ Conservative 200 target seats, there are 154 currently Labour, 42 currently Lib Dem, 3 SNP and Richard Taylor in Wyre Forest.
The Labour seats go up to a 21% majority or a swing of 10½% to fall. So on a 12% swing, then all would be at major risk plus more besides. Taking a simplistic uniform swing on this sub-set would give the Conservatives a gain of around 180 seats from Labour.
Similarly the 5½% swing Lib Dem to Conservative would see a Conservative gain of 20 seats from the Lib Dems. This may be an understatement as the Lib Dems may see a swing to them in Labour held Lib Dem target seats or ones won off them last time.
A purely arithmetic asessment of these ARS figures could see the Conservatives gain around 200 seats, almost doubling their current(boundary adjusted) tally and giving them a majority of more than 150.
I stress just an arithmetic analysis of the published figures.
116. Running the ‘Party X Are Trying To Buy This Election” line is very dangerous IMHO.
It says to the voter ‘we don’t trust you to be intelligent enough to make up your own mind; we think you’ll vote for the person with the biggest adverts.’
(Now I’m not saying that this ISN’T the case for some, but I don’t think the line is conducive to good PR).
Mike - could you provide figures for other seats - ie Lab safe seats and Con seats?
In a way these numbers don’t matter but they would be very useful to illustrate the differences in swing.
tim, why are you surprised that many many people intend to vote Green/BNP/UKIP? After Expensesgate and smeargate and bullygate and the rest of it?
It seems totally believable, to me, that all three main parties have been damaged by the nastiness of the last years of Labour.
Of course when it comes to the booth these people might find there isn’t a suitable candidate, a suitable Other for them to vote for, or they suddenly get the heebie jeebies at the idea of Nigel Farage of Caroline Lucas as an MP - so they will reluctantly opt for a major party.
This means BNP/UKIP will go Tory and the Tory share will be even higher, as the Greens divide between the LDs and the Labour party.
Or these Others voters will abstain on the day.
Either way it doesn’t undermine the essential findings of the poll one jot, as far as I can see. Labour are slowly gaining on Tories overall, but it may not be remotely enough to stop Tories romping home in the marginals.
127. Lib Dems are in full-scale denial mode this afternoon I see…
134. Its the incumbency / winning here factor
120 - If it makes you feel better to read the results like that, you go ahead
This is good news for the Tory team.
Do we have any info about LD/Lab marginals? I imagine the picture is similar there.
One methodological note though. When graciously taking the time to answer our questions here the other day, the guy from ARS said that their panel is only 40000 strong at the moment (compared to 300000 for Yougov). A sample size of 4004 is therefore 10% of the entire panel. I am slightly uneasy about this. ARS: please biggify your panel!
Interesting reading. Looking at UKPR a swing of 12% in the marginals is huge. I would like to see ICM do a similar poll and see how their figures compare, it would definitely make interesting reading.
These results just match up with reports coming out of CCHQ that they have given up campaigning in safe seats and are spending their resources in marginals. I live in Enfield Southgate which is an extremely safe Conservative seat and I have never seen any advertising or campaign money spent around here, but a friend who lives in the Stevenage constituency (no. 70 Con target on UKPR) says they have billboards, posters and leaflets targeted at commuters.
Anyway, it makes sense and even if an ICM marginals poll shows a smaller swing than 12% the 120 Lab -> Con seats required for a Con victory is around 8-9% which is only a couple of points higher than the national swing required. Andy Cooke spot on!
Mike,
I did say on the last thread a 11.5% swing prediction in the Con/Lab marginals!
As it is 12% - I’m feeling rather pleased !
No guys i think you are mistaken.
If Labour want to salvage this election, they need to wait till Parliament finishes, and i believe that is next week, they need to switch leader soon after so that person cannot be mauled by Cameron in the commons. Because lets face it, Cameron is good at PMQ’s. Very American-lawyer-like.
And then they can present that person to the country on ‘the breath of fresh air ticket’.
They might salvage a few seats that way, and prevent a Tory majority. I’m not bothered about a Tory majority per-se, and in fact under most circumstances i would welcome it. But we must must must have AV or PR. Its long overdue. I loathe FPTP. Its pure rubbish.
I would be quite happy with a Tory-Lib Dem pact.
Anyway that new leader could then say, look, all that went with the last regime is finished.
Balls, sacked. Darling, remains. I would ask Purnell to reconsider. Jane Kennedy (lovely lady), please come back, and here’s a nice new department for you.#Everything would be different.
But where we stand now. Its all flying into the sun. And for what?
Brown’s ego. Tragic. Very very sad.
138 ‘Wayne over-cautious shocker’
How can the others share be so high in marginals?
I really think something odd must be happening in the ARS approach that is turning voters who the other companies think will vote labour into “others” with ARS.
Im not saying one or the other approach is right - but there is a marked difference here.
135. I can’t help feeling that the last set of county council election results could prove a surprisingly good predictor of the GE…big Tory gains in the Midlands, Labour wipeout in the south, Lib Dems losing here (in the SW)…
120 - These are in fact all the Lib Dem held seats. It would be interesting to see what swing was found in, say, the 30 most marginal Lib Dem seats where the Tories are within spitting distance. Would we see differential swing there too?
QUICK CALCULATION!
BASED ON THE ARS NATIONAL POLL AND MARGINALS POLL - THE TORY MAJORITY WOULD BE 120! I SAID I SAID 120!!!
Brown’s just heard the polling news:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rm48tpIBhZc
Betfair’s Tory Overall Majority
Last price matched: 1.61 — 62.12%.
Good value?
99: Thanks for that. I sat open mouthed when I saw the comments about Caroline Flint & Burnham. In a commercial organisation neither of them would survive for 5 minutes. And both dye their hair, which puts me off for starters - especially as far as Burnham is concerned.
On the main numbers, which haven’t got much attention, anyone noticed this is the fourth polling company to note a tory to ‘others’ trend?
YG, Comres and ICM also had tory to ‘others’ swing. Wonder if that is the Winterton effect. Stuck up fat useless pric that he is.
137 - LD/Lab marginals, not that there are a huge number of them, are the most interesting IMHO. Will we finally see, due to the pathological hatred of Brown by diehard Tories, the begnings of a Con-> LD tactical vote movement?
Interesting post on the BNP:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5797908/many-bnp-voters-concerns-are-legitimate-and-should-be-recognised-as-such.thtml
128 Tabbers. Fortunately the local yellow peril will relocating to Watford and St. Albans. The former is a Lib Dem lock and the latter will be more interesting as Ann Main has had expences difficulties, but I expect the Lib Dem to be repelled there.
In all one blob of yellow on the Hertfordshire map …. Hhmmm …. but how they spread over the years !!
Long term I may have to invest in a moat …. fancy chipping in with the cost alongside other tax payers ??
138. ICM did a marginals polls quite recently I think?
James Kelly “What’s interesting is how Angus Reid is finally converging with the other pollsters”
I am not sure this is correct. I keep an eye on Anthony Wells “notional” UKPR average compared with AR’s results and based on this convegence (if any) seems limited.
O/T Shadsy has put up a couple of markets on the Tory Spring Conference. One is on phrases in Cameron’s speech, and the other:
Eric Pickles to be seen in Harry Ramsdens 3-1
George Osborne to be photographed drinking Champagne 6-1
William Hague to be photographed in baseball cap 10-1
David Cameron to fall over on beach 20-1
Confirmed sighting of Philip Hammond on Dodgems 33-1
142. Luke - the others figure is higher in the national poll (17%) than it is in the marginals (15% and 12% respectively). Thats seems perfectly logical to me as there will be people in safe seats who will be far happier to vote for who they support rather than vote to influence who the Government will be in marginals.
141 - Richard you spoke too soon ( see 145 )
One interesting issue in Lib Dem seats is the question asked. In 2005 polling in Lib Dem seats or targets was very different when two different questions were asked.
Q1 was the standard who will you vote for question
Q2 (from memory) was something like the result in this seat last time was x and y and z - who would you vote for in this constituency. From memory the second question gave around a 3% greater swing to the Lib Dems which was nearer the actual results. Of course people may be more aware this time or more inclined to vote Conservative.
As with all statistical matters it depends what questions you ask and the size of the sample.
Mike - With the 4,000 sample is there enough data here to create properly weighted samples for Scotland, Wales & England? Would be interesting and give us a little more to look at than 100 person sub-samples.
152
http://blogs.notw.co.uk/politics/2010/01/victory.html
154 - that Eric Pickles one looks like easy money.
Oh, and I hope the Tories target Balls and get him out of power. I fear that he would make a formidable leader in opposition and despite his ineptitude he has that bully-boy stature which would make him a decent opposition leader. The problem is the opposite as we have with David Cameron, he’s not a good leader of opposition but will make a formidable PM and campaigner just like Blair, Balls will make for a good opposition leader but terrible PM like Broon.
Even if I was still a Tory supporter, I’d smell a rat with some of these numbers. And without wishing to denigrate PB or Mike for commissioning this valuable resource, the ARS polls generally are so far out of kilter as to cause these marginal numbers to be considered a bit doubtful at best.
I don’t know whether these numbers make it less likely now that we will see the Tories attempt to pull an election victory out of the fire at the 11th hour by announcing some credible policies at last, ditching the crazy ones, and showing a bit of fight…???
Looking at the actual election result figures for 2005 my guess is that there is something like 170 or so Labour seats at risk plus the 20 or so Libdem ones mentioned in the UKPR list. So overall there are 200 seats at risk IMO.
140 ‘If Labour want to salvage this election…’
jupiter1, to do what you suggest would simply make things worse. It’s too late to try and pull a fast one on the electorate. They blew their chance 6 months ago.
Labour would be absolutely savaged for a stunt like that.
One other interesting question.
Would putting the results of a poll of the marginals into the UNS produce a similar estimate of outcome to andy cooke’s analysis and if not why now?
Here we go, ICM’s most recent poll of Lab/Con marginals;
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/1/23/
Sorry, David R. You are quite right.
I used to be quite good at mental arithmetic. Hmm
148 Yes it owes something to his ever so useful and completely needless intervention.
But then like Heffer & others (unfortunately from his recent blogs probably including Tebbit) Winterton probably dislikes the thought of a Cameron victory more than losing - it gives finality to the end of their era & politics.
Tabbers/jack w - Bedford is a much more interesting LD/Con marginal.
Lab parliamentary but well doomed, LD elected mayor (in October),local Cons at each others throats. Look at Shadsy’s odds.
“107.These numbers are breathtaking.
If correct the votes to seats conversion is even better than Andy Cooke’s analysis suggests.
Suppose, hypothetically, on GE day Con only lead Lab nationally by 2%.
These numbers mean that for determining the result in Con/Lab marginals it would be the same as UNS with an 11% lead.
ie Balls loses his seat even if Con only lead by 2% nationally.
Astonishing.
by Mike L February 24th, 2010 at 5:04 pm”.
Mike L. Could you or someone else explain to me how you have inferred this from today’s poll please?
Mike - which LD seats have been included in the 2005 calculation of 29/19/46 which you state above for LD/Con marginals. Are all LD seats included or just those under a certain percentage majority over the conservatives ( and/or Labour). If it is the latter please advise the maximum percentage majority figure being used to define a LD marginal.
O/T.
Make sure you watch Nigel Farage going bonkers in the European Parliament on BBC News.
152 Really? Do you have a link to the results, would love to see them…
The marginal poll remains unconvincing given the ongoing weakness in the national numbers and the large “others” result.
I can understand the fall in the Tory share at national level, and I’d have more assurance in the AR marginals poll if there was a comprable historical poll to compare that too.
The trend would be the key. The Tory share should be (and probably is) falling in the marginals too.
173
see 159/166
174 - BenM in rubbishing good news for Tories poll shocker!
Osborne writes prescription with family and friends in mind.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Shadow-Chancellors-Brother-Dr-Adam-Osborne-Is-Suspended-From-Practising-For-Six-Months/Article/201002415558716?lpos=UK_News_Carousel_Region_0&lid=ARTICLE_15558716_Shadow_Chancellors_Brother_Dr_Adam_Osborne_Is_Suspended_From_Practising_For_Six_Months
88. I’m inclined to agree with this analysis.
There are a large number of voters in Labour heartland seats (especially in the North) who absolutely loathe the Tories. Whilst they might not be keen on this government, as the election got nearer I imagine the prospect of a Tory government in power this year has concentrated their minds to returning from abstaining or voting other, and going back to the Labour fold. Coupled with some Tory mistakes this has been a major contributing factor to the polls narrowing, I think.
In middle England I believe the Labour brand continues to be rather toxic.
178. Why the actions of Osborne’s brother should have any bearing on things I have no idea. Let’s face it tim, you’re smearing, nothing more.
178
tim, you are getting desperate.
Re 175. The view from Tellytubbyland….
170 thom. Bedford is a very interesting seat this time round. The Lib Dem mayoralty win has lent the seat a certain unexpected colour. We hope and expect regular updates from OGH.
166 Thanks. As expected it looks like a lower swing than ARS but even at 9.2% it would see the Tories over the line with quite a handy majority…
152 - I shouldn’t worry too much, Jack - there’s only been Chesterfeld in the E Mids for the last 3 elections or so!
Happy to contirbute to the moat - its in a good cause. Perhaps the building works might disturb the walls to your cellar and one or two bottles may float away
170 - tomthumb, so an under-the-radar one to watch, then!
BenM - I presume your pals in the bunker will also stick their head in the sand with respect to the marginals polling. Are we bothered? I don’t think so.
Regarding the figures for fund raising.
Through simple maths, if you add up all the numbers for largest individual donations (including the unions) you get:
Conservatives: £4,079,490
Labour: £3,933,491
Lib Dem: £224,550
Ok so the Lib Dems are going nowhere - but the similarity between Labour and the Tories is astounding. Its fairly clear the Tories are raising their money from “smaller”* donations
*Smaller being under £200,000 - but there arent any other figures i can see. Surely this means that some part of £6m extra that the Conservatives have raised will have come from (actually) small donations, suggesting unsurpisingly that most people think labour will lose
180 - Someone was going to post it as part of the Broken Britain narrative/priorities for tax cuts agenda weren’t they?
178. osborne’s brother hasn’t done his own career a lot of good, I#m sure he will be heartened by yout thoughts.
178 And?
Paul Waugh RE Morely and Outwood:
“Another item that caught the eye was the bump in donations for the seat of Morley and Rothwell (prop. one E Balls). His CLP got £3,450 from Thompsons Solicitors, £3,040 from the Co-Op Bank, £500 from Unison in the last quarter. This followed £5k from Amicus last March. I know Labour is aware of the Tory challenge in this seat, but here’s the proof.”
On the basis that Balls etc keep telling us that “all the banks have benefited in some form from the Bail-Out, why are WE the tax-payers (through the CO-OP bank) putting money into Ed F**$ing Ball’s re-election fund?
Or was this what he meant about taking bonuses away from the bankers?
re 178 tim why do you think any of us care whether Osborne’s brother is a dodgy doctor or even Jack the Ripper? I thought we elected individuals to parliament and not their entire families, black sheep and all.
Looking at these figures, I think that Darling’s decision to go public with the briefings against him from No10, bringing the Tories into it as well speaks volumes. He is really worried about even hanging onto his seat now, never mind his Cabinet post. This was an attempt to win the sympathy vote in Edinburgh first, and his reputation as a Chancellor second. What other bad news do the Treasury have lurking in the shadows?
186.
The bunker is lovely and warm today and we are enjoying the sight of loads of BitterTories going ballistic over a marginals poll - which, as we know by their very nature, require multiple caveats to be taken into account.
Is this swing enough to unseat Bog Eyed Balls?
185 tabbers. I might be tempted to raffle a bottle of Mrs Jack W’s finest homemade strawberry and dandelion cordial - it’ll put hairs on the chest of the lucky winner …. well it has so far for the Rectors wife !!
195 Yup
195
not sure but Purnel’s seat would have been dodgy IIRC (personal vote not included)
193 - Are you forecasting an 8%+ swing from Labour to Tory in Scotland ?
Do we agree the Marginals poll makes a March/April election even less likely ?
So, will this poll be mentioned by Sky, or the BBC ?
194 - I bet it is warm, hot as hell, from all the fire being breathed by Gordo!
198 oops Purnell
195, theoretically yes, I think.
But obviously with the larger majorities some will stay Labour and others will go Tory.
194, it’s reasonable to take account of new polling data. Most marginal polls have given a similar picture, I believe. A national poll can’t give as much useful information because Labour could be gaining votes in Kirkcaldy, but losing them in the Midlands, yet the numbers could stay the same.
178. Bringing up Osborne’s brother, do you ever say a thing new?
198 Never considered Purnell’s = that’d be a shocker!
192: The Labour party regularly elect families to Parliament - just ask Hiliary Benn, or maybe his Dad, or Grandpapa, or his neice. Or maybe even Mr Harperson
200, not necessarily. Remember, the polls have tightened for Labour. What would happen if they widened?
Early election would duck Q1 figures, the Budget and may occur when tons of Tories are off on holiday.
It does make it less likely though.
162.Max, I almost want to see someone like Ed Balls lead Labour in opposition. How would he cope without the huge power base built up by the Brownites in the Treasury and in No10? How would they deal with being out of power and not having the full Civil service at their disposal? The Labour party like the others are going to be pretty broke post GE, and its going to be interesting to see how they deal with oppositions without the resources they are used too. I suspect that will impose severe limitations, and I doubt that Balls would be anywhere near as effective as a result. And he is the economic brains behind the current mess we are in, that will very much neutralise his main strength.
195. NigelJ it’s on the margins. UKPR reckons it will take a 12.3% swing. However, it’s unlikely to be in the top 150 most vulnerable Labour seats so the swing maybe different in safer seats such as Morley….
201. Not if they’ve got any sense.
Michael Crick tries to rehabilitate Damian McBride
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/newsnight/michaelcrick/2010/02/damian_mc_bride_and_the_forces.html
O/T
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/damianthompson/100027339/three-quarters-of-tory-candidates-want-to-negotiate-uks-relationship-with-eu/
Looks like good news for common sense.
The national poll is 7% off the YouGov poll for Labour which really gets me very confused! The marginals poll is extremely interesting as well and the LibDem seats poll is very disappointing.
However, the percentage share for “others” makes me really dubious.
196 - Jack, one wonders when you had occasion to inspect the chest of the Rector’s wife !?!
PS - did you know that “Mrs Jack W’s finest homemade strawberry and dandelion cordial” is an anagram of Chateaw Latore (plus a few other letters)?
209 Hmm - a tricky one
Were you up for Balls vs Balls with no status, money, power…
43,50,59
As I understand it the LD figures are from all seats held byLab Dems in 2005.That means it includes Lib/Con marginals and LiB/Lab marginals.
Since swing away from Libs in Ld/Lab marginals is likely to be less than the average,it follows that in LD/Con marginasl the swing is likely to be bigger than 5.5%
A lot of work for LiB dems to do in those Tory marginals,and wins in Lab>Ld marginasl maybe more difficult.
209
Are the Labour Party that stupid?
First post, so please be patient.
If these figures are accurate, and to date I think AR is the most relaible pollstser, it is the biggest blow to Brown in his two and a half years of cock ups.
There, said it!
203/6 - Lots of money to be made if you fancy backing up your views.
Labour 1/10 to keep Stalybridge and Hyde.
Its amazing how much free time McBride has to do cozy interviews with the media and training days at the BBC, given he is supposedly employed on a full time basis at a school….
178 & 188
Most of the time, you’re just a smarmy clever-dick that infuriates. But with posts like this you’re so deeply unpleasant.
Tell me did you learn this at the feet of Damian McBride? Or is he your star pupil?
Very sober assessment by Anthony Wells (depressed LibDems should follow the link!)
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
212. Wibbler
I’m not sure that could be called ‘rehabilitation’. Crick hasn’t corroborated that version of the events at all from what I can see All he has done is just put it on the record for people to respond to as they feel fit.
There has been no BBC interpretation there. It is just a statement from McBride from what I can see.
Interesting analysis from Anthony Wells http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2470
My own view is that this poll points to where I expect things to be come May 9th; c10 loss.
220/221.
Weird Torybot obsession with someone (McBride) that no has ever heard of!
Now “Winterton” - there’s a name that’s knocked 3 points off the Tory poll share!!
209 I agree that Balls is responsible for this mess along with Brown, but that wouldn’t stop him being effective in opposition. He has the same ability as Brown to obfuscate and avoid answering the question which has proven so effective by Brown. I think the power base that Brown has built up will still mostly be around in the PLP and they will rally around Balls with their briefings and such, no doubt Sky and the BBC would tag along for the ride…
221. It’s tim, he feels it’s ok to post this stuff as the ‘heard’ don’t. What Osborne’s brother does or doesn’t do has no bearing on George Osborne, however tim see’s it as a way of attacking him, so goes for it. He’ll do or say anything to make a point, even make stuff up or just plain insult people.
199.tim, the only reason for Darling to totally shaft Brown just weeks before a GE is be called, and when he is under the spotlight for the bullying culture at No10 is to save his seat. Something tells me the canvass returns are not looking good. He did his boss and his government no favours, but he played a blinder in asking for the sympathy vote at home in his seat. No point worrying about keeping your Cabinet post after the GE if you cannot guarantee keeping your seat.
215 Tabbers. It all came out in a sordid way !! ….
The Rectors wife was having an affair with another vicar and a shocked parishioner disturbed flagrante the couple - they fled but her pants were found in his vestry and his vest in her pantry !!
The old ones are the best !!
225. God your dull, it’s like readings tim’s spurious crap, only laced with vague insults and even more stupidity.
219: Tim, old bean, I’m sure (or Shir as Bog Eyes would say!) that there is plenty of money to be made if you really believe BullyBoy Brown is going to win a majority, but then even you can’t be that big a t*at!
213. Read it.
Yeah, yeah. Yawn. If you believe that then you’ll believe anything.
118 = Post of the day.
226 If Labour get annihilated as the Tories did in 97 - no one will be listening to them at all.
225. Tellytubby Benny
I take it McBride is unheard of in tellytubby land. You are very lucky. He is a ‘force from hell’…..
229 - it sounds like sports day where they forgot to bring their PE kit!
The direction of travel across most polling organisations, regardless of methodology, is similar. They are all showing a narrowing of the gap between Conservative and Labour, and they are all showing a bigger than average swing to the Conservatives in Labour-held marginal seats.
I agree with Sir Norfolk about Lib Dem seats. In practice, a lot of the non-Tory voters there will vote tactically for Lib Dem incuments, on the day, so there’s nothing in these figures to indicate really big gains from the Lib Dems.
226 The problem is Balls just looks like a flatout psycho.
229 - PS, how are the JARHEAD bets looking?
“If they switched to Caroline Flint or Andy Burnham now, all those marginals would snap back into shape, almost overnight.”
by jupiter1 February 24th, 2010 at 4:52 p
Err, not in Stafford.
http://order-order.com/2010/02/24/unite-rapped-for-parliamentary-event/
238, not so sure. Being seen as a psychopath is one thing, being seen as a frequent twitterer is quite another.
O/T - Sir Norfolk, how is your business partner, Mr Chance?
213. Its not much different (in terms of conclusions) from the study Conhome did a while back.
145 We are moving into Waynes World. I am happy to say. Forecast: stonking Toy maj. My money’s on it.
what i don’t understand is how the prince of darkness is letting all this happen under his watch.
he’s supposed to b so clever, and yet brown remains in post, and the polls just slide away.
Mandy must be getting old. Thats the only explanation
There is a new extended animated video (this time in English),
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-hWE1H4geQ
238 And Broon doesn’t?
And an amusing cartoon…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rcrKdeWPK4
Just for chuckles - Nigel Farage is unimpressed with the ‘bank clerk’ EU President Rumpy - Pumpy
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8535121.stm
246: Mandy is just not as clever as he’s cracked up to be, and yet he is still the best that labour have got. It doesn’t say much for the rest of the second-rate-no-hopers-who-wouldn’t-hold-down-a-job-in-the-real-world bunch of to*sers
250 Cruel but true
Mike an excellent poll both speaking as a Tory (because my lot look like doing well) and a PBer (because the sheer quantity of interests covered).
Would AR provide a list of the constituencies from which the samples were taken failing which the number of constituencies in each region/country?
I dont understand why some PBers think Scotland should be excluded. We have potentially 1/3 of all seats falling within the definition of marginal and capable of changing hands at the GE.
Mike do we know whether this marginals poll also included the 3-way and 4-way marginals identified by a number of us in PB2 articles and what do you think it says about seats like Watford, Bedford and Edinburgh South?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7038568.ece
“From The Times February 24, 2010
Tories make inroads as public switch from Nick Clegg to David Cameron”
253 - I agree with you Mark that the polls should include seats north of the Tweed.
For RodC
Laura Kuenssberg BBCLauraK
Sir Gus O’Donnell’s draft guidance on what happens with hung parliament now up online - read it here http://ow.ly/1aRim
Easterross
How many Lab/Con marginals are you identifying in Scotland?
How many LD seats in England are in 4 way contests?
It’s not a matter of “excluding” Scotland from polling, but simply presenting the data collected by the polling, appropriately.
Both of us would like to see the data for the Scots LD seats - which, since AR weights Scots former voting separately, shouldn’t be a problem.p
254 - we discussed this on the previous thread, Plato. Its remarkably short on hard evidence - indeed it reads more like a CCHQ press briefing than a piece of independent journalism.
That said, we’ll find out in due course won’t we.
In Scotland the Conservatives have publicly announced they will only in reality fight about 12 seats. This could well lead to a reduction in the total Conservative vote even if they pick up 2 or 3 new seats. To my understanding this is the first election where the Conservative effort has been so targetted.
In some of the poverty seats such as east London and the North East where the chances of the Tories winning are low the opposition has become the nationalist parties of UKIP and the BNP.
In the whole mix the Lib Dems appear to be squeezed. There is not enough room to fit between the Tories and Labour and the growth is on the extremes.
Interesting piece about O’Donnells arrangements for the interim period should the nation elect a hung Parliament. It does seem that O’ Donnell doesn’t understand the crossed messages that the polls are providing:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/feb/24/whitehall-gus-odonnell-hung-parliament-purdah
Well done Nigel Farage.
Rumpy is a crap, faceless unelected dictator. I don’t agree with UKIP’s EU policy, but at least they have the guts to say what Britain overwhelmingly thinks to Rumpy’s face.
I remember once on one of those LWT “Frost on Friday / Saturday / Sunday” shows of the late 60s - early 70s, that he interviewed some foreign ambassador who said that England, Scotland, and Berwick-on-Tweed had declared war on his country, but only England and Scotland had signed the subsequent peace treaty, so his country was technically at war with Berwick-on-Tweed.
I dont understand why some PBers think Scotland should be excluded. We have potentially 1/3 of all seats falling within the definition of marginal and capable of changing hands at the GE.
Don’t be daft.
Of course Scotland shouldn’t be excluded but only the seriously deluded think it contains a third of marginals.
Haven’t had time to read the comments but thought the following may be of interest. Please bear in mind this is about a Conservative held seat that was a LD target and not a LD seat that is a Conservative target so any conclusions drawn neeed to be qualified.
In 1997 the Conservatives held the seat by under 3,000 votes. In 2001 they retained the seat by under 1,000. In both elections Labour were nowhere (under 10% of the vote). I’ve probably given enough information away now to identify the seat
Just prior to the 2001 election the LDs commissioned a private poll which gave the Conservatives a substantial lead and also identified a very significant Labour vote. I’m afraid I can’t remember the exact details but the LDs and Labour were neck and neck for 2nd & 3rd in the poll.
The implication from this was that although the LDs were clearly targeting the seat it wasn’t until the election was in full swing that they got the usual message across ” It’s a two horse race” etc. Once they did they got very close to winning it.
Not sure whether you can extrapolate from that to LD held seats as presumably when LDs are the incumbant then the electorate should be more aware of that, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a significant number weren’t.
I’ve certainly canvased in Twickenham since Vince Cable won the seat and found people who still assumed it was a Conservative seat.
Obviously as a LD my post may be wishful thinking
I am not a polling expert by any means, so perhaps someone can tell me if I have got this right or wrong.
Isn’t it wrong to take the figures provided by AR in the marginals and then apply Andy Cooke’s seat claculator to them?
Point 3 of Andy’s analysis already assumes that the marginals will provide an extra boost for the Conservatives.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/02/07/does-cameron-really-need-an-11-point-lead/
Therefore, isn’t taking the marginal figures provided above and applying Andy’s seat calculator to them, double counting?
This differential marginals swing makes sense as a response by the electorate to the anti-middle-class small ‘c’ conservatives and anti-WWC of Labour’s policies, and their rhetoric - especially since Brown took over and the Labour benches gave full vent to their (fake) anti-Etonian snobberies. What a bunch of porkers and troughers.
Just had a survey from ARPO, started with Voter intention, then some questions on the leaders (descriptive terms for each of them, then who would you prefer in a number of situations (personal and political) and then who would be more likely to cry/laugh at a joke/abuse staff/another one that I can’t remember)) then on the economy, the Falklands, and finally a bit on Quaker Oats, which I didn’t get past the first question due to not eating them.
Interesting that ARPO are back in the field already.
265 Forgot to spell check!
264 Tim B
It’s an urban myth - but good for tourism!
- another poster..
http://dailyreferendum.blogspot.com/2010/02/general-election-poster-gordon-brown-is.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+blogspot%2FaoUm+%28Daily+Referendum%29
258 It does seem to reflect what is happening on the ground,at least in terms of Devon. Having said that,I expect Younger-Ross to hang on in Newton Abbot-the boundary changes have helped him out significabtly.
266.
Wot?!?! Tories double-counting?? Like they do with their economic statements, you mean?
256. Thanks, so no deviation from previous convention…
OT Does anyone know what setting I need to change in IE8 to stop the scroller cursor only working with frames or pages?
A kitty sat on my keyboard and I can’t find out what they’ve swithed on!
I’ve tried toggling Caret browsing but this seems to make no difference and it’s really annoying.
I’m sure everyone will have read this from Anthony’s site describing the difference in methodology between ARS and all the others but for those like me who hadn’t it’s a must read. Very easy to understand even for simpleton’s like me who didn’t know what Shoedingers cat was.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2453
Whats being debated in the HoC? This from Twitter:
Mike_Fabricant
Big Labour rebellion. 60+ majority cut to 8. What a shame it wasn’t -1!
273, I am not saying it IS double counting wage slave. Like I say, I am not a polling expert by any means. I might be barking up the wrong tree… or perhaps, like Gordo, I might just be simply barking.
Since it’s sort of on topic, one last plug for my three way marginals article on pb2 :
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.com/2010/02/m1-truels.html
257 “Hung” Parliaments
16. Where an election does not result in a clear majority for a single party, the incumbent Government remains in office unless and until the Prime Minister tenders his and the Government’s resignation to the Monarch. An incumbent Government is entitled to await the meeting of the new Parliament to see if it can command the confidence of the House of Commons or to resign if it becomes clear that it is unlikely to command that confidence.
Per Wells, I make the 150th Tory-Lab marginal, Cannock Chase. Notional L 50.9% C 30.2%. Per above: L 35.9% C 39.2%. So would indicate over 150 gains from Labour, maybe more like 160-170?
On LDs, say North Dorset, LD 48.8% C 37.9% and per above LD 41.8% C 41.9%!! So about theoretical 20 gains.
So, total, Con gains about 180-190 per above. So about 400 seats per above. In reality somewhat less but does seem to show Con still on track.
Usual caveats apply.
by Рeter2′ February 24th, 2010 at 4:59 pm
Peter North Dorset is a Tory seat
Mid Dorset and Poole North is Lib/Dem and 48.7% to 36.6%
Very close, I will have to get a few more out !!!
273 Or like Gordon Brown triple-counting his spending pledges?
260 - ‘To my understanding this is the first election where the Conservative effort has been so targetted.’
The Conservative party did target all the SNP seats (and others) last time and they spent £1,317,193 by the Central party in Scotland. People in Angus in 2005 were showered with leaflets, letters and DVD’s.
Unsurprisingly, a poll showing what the vast majority of posters on this site (Tories, or at least very anti-Labour) want to believe and loads of people are talking about massive Labour losses. Looking at it more closely, such a poll seems to suggest that the swing is 60% higher in marginals than nationally. Under AR’s highly contested figures, that would give the Tories an enormous majority (but then any AR poll would on the face of it do that anyway). If you extrapolate the figures for YouGov, currently showing a 5% swing on UNS, this would give an 8% swing in the marginals. If Labour were to close the gap from 5% to 4%, then the marginal swing, would on YouGov’s figures be 6.4% - the quicker it goes up, the quicker it falls under the theory of the exaggerated swing in marginals that Andy Cooke has posted about in detail. Factor in tactical voting which I think the consensus suggests that both marginal and non marginal seat polls fail to capture, and a lot comes down to Lib Dem voters in Lab/Con marginals. The evidence is mixed, but the polls would suggest they are more likely to split for Labour than the Tories. Added to this, as Anthony Wells points out, there is evidence that Lib/Con marginals have always tended to underestimate the Lib Dem share. Result? Hung Parliament territory again or a small Tory majority. I’m not wishing to sound like a Labour troll, it is just to add caution to some of the wilder predictions that have come out of this. That is not to say there couldn’t be a Tory landslide - these figures demonstrate how fine the margins are, and that it is clearly a possibility, but that there are many different possibilities depending on very few swing voters. I would also suggest that ‘the marginals’ are far from a homogenous group that will behave in the same way - the Tory swing in places like Dartford or Harlow is likely to be higher than in seats lower down the list or in different parts of the country, as they have performed so strongly in the South East in the past few years that Labour is unlikely to be putting up much of a fight in these seats. Equally, the Tories seem to be doing better in Midlands seats and less well, in general, in the North and London - economic and demographic factors at play here. Who this will work better for remains to be seen.
If you shove the Lib>Con swings into ElectoralCalculus,
the LibDems on that swing will lose 31 seats, or about half of their current total, and almost entirely to the Conservatives.
This, incidentally, is in line with Eric Pickles’ claims in August 2009, where he said that they aimed to reduce the LibDems to the “mid 30s”.
O/T.
Ashley Cole has named the man who drove him to sin. “There were three of us in this relationship..” he told the News of the World…..
http://orderorder.files.wordpress.com/2010/02/cole1.jpg?w=150&h=200
266 budgie - Yes, I think that is right. Andy’s approach already models differential swing.
265. Surrey SW?
I have direct intelligence from a Conservative ‘top 100′ seat that the Tory campaign team, meeting this week, have agreed with one another that they are a busted flush for this election. Admittedly, it is a seat with particular unique circumstances. But, who knows, there could be others?
287. I couldn’t possibly say.
263. It’s true, unless there was an elaborate spoof involving the beeb.
I remember hearing on the radio about the eventual peace treaty signing in, I think, the early 60s.
It was Russia.
At the outbreak of the Crimean War Queen Vic signed a declaration on behalf of Great Britain, the Dominions beyond the seas, and Berwick on Tweed - but the latter got missed on the peace treaty.
When this was rectified, the Mayor of Berwick had the cheek to say “Now the Russian people can sleep safe in their beds.”
The Russian ambassador was not amused.
No doubt that Griffin and his mob will be having a field day with this:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/7302878/Somalian-woman-with-no-right-to-live-in-the-UK-must-be-given-a-council-house-according-to-EU-judges.html
284.
“they aimed to reduce the LibDems to the “mid 30s”.”
Isn’t that where the Tories want to take the whole of Britain back to?
286. Thanks Richard. So what this marginals poll has really comfirmed is that when forecasting seat numbers on an overall poll, then Andy’s system is on the right track.
Antony Wells backs up my comment made earlier about Lib Dem seats - it depends what question is asked. When OGH puts up the link to AR we will see what was the question.
George Osborne live on BBC News
288. Gee, could it be Westmorland and Lonsdale? Or Watford?
286 - I took the Pickles figures from last August, put them through the Andy Cooke calculus, then adjusted them for the ARS marginals last week, put them back through the Andy Cooke generator and I it gave me the shadow cabinet in May
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2009/06/08/article-1191573-0541ACC5000005DC-204_468×286.jpg
288. I reckon they gave up on westmorland about four years ago. Any Conservative candidate is going to come out of the count feeling a but like Iain Dale did.
289. In 2005, of course, Surrey SW swung strongly to the Tories and is now a pretty safe seat again. Another example of the Lib Dem’s ability to surge and then collapse again in short order - they remain essentially a protest party, a guerilla force.
*** Betting Post ***
Shadsy’s new market on words/phrases Cameron might use in his Spring Conference speech is available on Ladbrokes’ site.
Mostly to be avoided IMO; the usual cunning traps for the unwary. In particular, beware ‘Broken Britain’ - he might talk about ‘broken society’ or ‘broken politics’ or ‘broken economy’, but that won’t win for you!
However, I do have one long-shot tip:
‘Age of Austerity’ at 16-1.
I’m pretty sure he won’t be majoring on this theme (austerity was so 2009), but perhaps he might include a passing reference along the lines of ‘last year I warned about the coming age of austerity’.
The only other two which looked tempting to me were ‘Death Tax’ and ‘Hung Parliament’, both at 3-1. However, I’ve resisted the temptation.
For reference, and to get the style, here’s last year’s speech:
http://www.conservatives.com/News/Speeches/2009/04/The_age_of_austerity_speech_to_the_2009_Spring_Forum.aspx
296 tim, it looks as if your calculations are wrong. But then you’ve never been very good with maths. Do you remember the trouble you had with the agricultural subsidy figures last year? That was fun.
Still, it makes a change from simply making them up, and receiving a ban.
284 - “If you shove the Lib>Con swings into ElectoralCalculus…”
With all due respect, Richard, it’s utterly meaningless to shove it into Electoral Calculus as EC deals with national vote shares not this type of poll.
The appropriate thing to do is compare the swing AR suggests in Lib Dem held seats to the list of swings required, which comes out with much lower number of losses and should also be caveated in the way I have done at 69 and others elsewhere.
295 - this is wage slave we’re talking about. It’s as likely to be Walford as Watford.
298. LOL!!!!
Sorry 296 LOL!!!!
264 Tim bad grammar on my part. What I meant was that 1/3 of Scotland’s seats are marginal and several more in the melting pot.
Inverness
Western Isles
Argyll
Aberdeen S
Aberdeen N
Aberdeenshire W
Perth
Angus
Stirling
Ochil
East Dunbartonshire
Edinburgh South
Edinburgh South West
Edinburgh North
Dundee East
Dundee West
Glasgow North
Glasgow East
East Renfrewshire
Kilmarnock
Livingston
Dunfermline
Dumfries and Galloway
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
Berwick, Roxburgh and Selkirk
302: LOL
O/T Regarding Farage’s stupid outburst
I completely disagree with some other posters who apparently find it very amusing or even support him.
I happen to be eurosceptic, and not a fan of Van Rompuy, but insulting someone and an entire country (”you come from Belgium, which is pretty much a non-country.”) in parliament makes Farage look like a stupid jerk.
Would you really approve if this kind of behaviour was the norm in the Commons?
If UKIP wanted (at some distant point in the future) be considered serious politicans that is a massive setback…
298.
I didn’t even think the official Tories even had a campaign committee in Westmorland!
305 - Sure, they’re marginal, Easterross, but Scotland isn’t going to make more than a very marginal difference to the core question at the heart of this election (and the majority of the betting on it) - will the Tories win a majority?
More info about other seats (Lab/LD battles, Nats, NI, whatever) would all be welcome but isn’t going to be as newsworthy.
308 - It’s underwater.
303.
I can assure you that my intelligence on this matter is considerably better than anything Andrew Rawnsley’s ever come up with. There are more than a few advantages to ’sleeping with the enemy’.
OT If you haven’t caught this - bits are very amusing
Dramatisation of the expenses scandal
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00r3qf4/On_Expenses/
311.
And their campaign is underground?
The general rule in Scotland is simple: bet on Labour. The markets still haven’t fully priced their revival north of the border.
Berwick and the Crimean War - the boring facts!
http://www.culture24.org.uk/history+%2526+heritage/time/georgian+and+victorian/art38768
“We think the myth was started in the early 20th century – a vicar was giving a lecture or talk and mentioned it and it started from there. And who are we to put down a good myth?”
McBride given air time WTF?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/newsnight/michaelcrick/2010/02/damian_mc_bride_and_the_forces.html
307 I suppose it escapes Farage’s notice that the First World War was fought(at least by Britain) in order to defend Belgium’s sovereignty.
He really is a tool of the highest order.
In contrast, I wish there was more of this kind of thing.
It happens not infrequently in the Australian parliament and I don’t think they’re any the worse for it.
297.
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2009/06/08/article-1191573-0541ACC5000005DC-204_468×286.jpg
Is that action how they produce little aliens?
311 & 313 Are there two wageslaves (perish the thought), responding to each others deranged thoughts, or is it a split personality?
318. Oops! This intended for 307.
298 Runnymeade. I respect your position as a Conservative. I may not agree with your views (although I suspect we do have some or even many views in common). Why can’t you accept that LDs are made up of people who just hold different views to yourself, rather than anything else. Voters of both parties are made up of people who have strong beliefs in each party and also people who float, but make a considered choice and also people who frankly haven’t a clue.
My I also suggest that you don’t actually know exactly what happened in SW Surrey. I’m sure some local Copnservatives can give you the background.
One key difference is LDs do rely much more than Labour and the Conservatives on key activist to maintain a level of support.
314 - Good advice.
The last 6 months, when we go back through the betting entrails after the election, will show that backing Labour in Scotland on the constituency markets was one of the easiest ways to make money for years.
Osborne writes prescription with family and friends in mind.
by tim February 24th, 2010 at 5:36 pm
Oh dear, What a pity never mind……..
Westmorland could be strongly influenced by the General Hospital, parts of which have been closing, and or mothballed, throughout Labour’s reign. The popular LibDem MP is always purportedly saving it, but in truth has achieved very little in that regard.
Given that the hospital was originally built by the Tories, the electorate could perhaps be persuaded that it could be saved by the Tories.
315. Except the Russian ambassador did sign a ‘treaty’ in 1966.
http://www.economicexpert.com/a/Berwick:upon:Tweed.htm
I have been underwhel;med by George Osborne in the past.
Having listened to him giving the Maqis lecture on how the Conservatives will reorganise the budget, the regulation of the economy etc, I may have to reconsider my views..
Worth listening to.
“I didn’t even think the official Tories even had a campaign committee in Westmorland!”
They no longer have an official headquarters. It was the victim of arson last week.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/cumbria/8531115.stm
327
Maqis = Mais!
318- b.
“more of this kind of thing” - things like insulting a neighboring country of 10 million people ???
What next? “funny” remarks about a whole continent? Cynically hoping that cheap insults will provoke a scandal is the mark of intelligent politicians and healthy democracies?
I think we will have to disagree on this one…
327, didn’t listen to it, but I do think Osborne is underrated too much. He has a slight image issue, but has repeatedly thrashed the government strategically, with speeches at conference and responses to the PBR.
300 Tim Do you remember the trouble you had with the agricultural subsidy figures last year? That was fun.
How come he’s a farmer is he not? or was he a cop or maybe a secret agent
…hard to keep up with it sometimes.
327
He was very clear and very understandable . I was impressed…
333, haha, those full stops make you sound rather shocked.
Osborne’s problem is his image. He looks too young and is sadly cursed with smirking more than smiling (not that it does Branson much harm). He’s a clever chap though.
I’m pretty confident about the Tories economically, with Hammond, Clarke and Osborne. It’s that plank Grayling and the numpty Lansley who concern me.
Yes, we will.
If there’s one thing that annoys me, it the stylised hypocrisy that bolsters the egos of political nonentities.
They deserve a boot up the arse - all of them.
222, Good to hear. Now he and Cam must bang on with the same message, day in and day out to the point of boredom with absolutely no hint of deviation.
Just listening to Osbourne on News24. He comes across well, but sometimes he just seems too young and inexperienced to be holding the post in such terrible times. He needs to try harder to come across with weight and gravitas rather than ‘the boy George’.
Ideas are OK, but don’t like the idea of the independent body, all too many of these under Labour and now no one in Parliament is accountable. How would these be any different to the countless quangos we have become used to under Labour?
All in all it’s not going to make much difference, but then I don’t think he needs to, just needs to keep delivering the same message of austerity and the need for cuts so that when in office Dave and George have the political capital to do what is necessary to get this country on the right track again.
275 Plato. I bought a brand new Logitech mouse yesterday for £19.99. For some reason it has worked for me - previously IE8 had been giving me aggro with the old PS1 mouse I had been using.
326 b.
If you read your own link, it simply repeats the story that “a Russian official” not the Soviet Ambassador “signed” such a “Treaty”.
Unfortunately, it seems that this huge event was never recorded in the local press.
Believe this story, and the next thing you’ll imagine is that the good folk of Berwick think they live in England!
328.
” It was the victim of arson last week.”
What a bumber!
Do the Tories in Westmorland hate each other even more than they do in Westminster, Southport and Norfolk?
334 - Mr Dancer, will you please get out of my head and kindly think some thoughts of your own
335- b.
“political nonentities” like… Nigel Farage?
and you still haven’t explained to me how insulting an entire neighbor country is such a good thing…
325 “The popular LibDem MP is always purportedly saving it, but in truth has achieved very little in that regard”
The ONLY thing the ‘popular’ Tim Farron is good at is getting his picture in the Westmorland Gazette.
I know MPs and candidates will do anything to get in the local paper but recent events encapsulated the general camera-chasing attitude of Farron for me.
When we were under inches of snow and ice, with slippery roads and pavements. What was Farron’s first instinct to get his picture in the paper? Get up a petition!
On the other hand Conservative candidate Gareth McKeever was pictured with local councillors in a village, shovels and brooms in hand actually doing something to clear the problems.
Now while both were obviously intent in boosting their PR, there was something telling in my view in that one was prepared to get his hands dirty actually addressing the problem and other resorted to a petition.
Now, I suppose, I’ll draw the ire of Ian Stewart, Cumbria CC LibDem Councillor for this area
307. Agreed. There are better ways of making your point than coming out with petty insults.
I heard Osborne (which means the voice lowering has worked) but can’t quite work out the status of his chopper.
Is it in or out at the moment?
Although I’m pleased to see that his early intervention into problem rich families by giving them an In inheritance tax cut is still intact.
331.
“Osborne…… has repeatedly thrashed the government strategically”
…with his strategic silence at what to do when the banking crisis broke….his strategic silence as to whether there should have been government initiatives to ease the situation…or saving the banks….his strategic silence on how the hell you can balance the books while promising to protect major budgets and implement various new spending plans……
There’s a new campaign song for the Tories - a little modified Simon and Garfunkel number:
“Hello my old darkness friends…..”
Amusing comment on Ch4 News. The staff at No 10 said Brown had a ferocious temper but none said they would describe it as bullying. One said he didn’t have the empathy to bully!
307 Chris(from Bethesda)
Hmmm… the insult to Belgium wasn’t in the clip on the BBC website, but having read it, I agree it was far too far.
That said, telling Rumpy that he is a useless nonentity bureaucrat who has no mandate or legitimacy is a very good idea.
Insulting politicians is OK. Insulting countries is not.
Farage was not at his best today, but at least he had a go.
Belgium is a divided country, in which one part detests the other, in a way that outsiders would not understand. Its political system is fractured to the point of ineffectiveness.
He managed to make Von Rumpoy wake up for the first time that I had ever seen. His wide eyed facial expression was not far off Benny Hill’s, as Farage told him to his face he was a nonentity.
Farage speaks right from the front in the EP nowadays (as leader of Freedom & Democracy) and can launch his tirades at close quarters to the self-satisfied pygmies that run the EU.
Keep going, Nigel. I think he’d be welcome in the Commons. He could fire off some great broadsides at any complacency amongst the Conservatives, treachery among Labour and Lib Dems. I’d turn on to watch him.
Other than in Buckingham, I’m a Conservative!
343.
“Conservative candidate Gareth McKeever was pictured with local councillors….shovels and brooms in hand actually doing something to clear the problems.”
Do they have no proctologists in Westmorland?
339. They do, though there is traitorous faction that wishes otherwise.
Ah, such a pity that the Nevilles and the Percys hung up their broadswords. They’d have had something to say about this state of affairs.
341, mwahahaha!
I suspect it’s a reasonably common view. It’s easy to let Osborne’s youthful appearance eclipse his excellent strategic abilities.
Likewise, Lansley sounds like he should be a sensible, possibly even clever fellow, whereas he’s actually a plank.
323 Tim/Antifrank in 2001 the only Scottish seat which changed hands was Galloway and Upper Nithsdale which was a Tory gain from SNP.
In 2005 there were 5 notional changes:
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale: Tory gain from Labour
Dundee East: SNP gain from Labour
Western Isles: SNP gain from Labour
Dunbartonshire East: LibDem gain from Labour
Inverness: LibDem gain from Labour
Since 2005:
Dunfermline: LibDem gain from Labour
Glasgow East: SNP gain from Labour
Scotland:
Labour vote 1997: 1,283,000
Labour vote 2001: 1,001,000 loss of 282,000
Labour vote 2005: 907,000 loss of 94,000
SNP vote 1997: 620,000
SNP vote 2001: 464,000 loss of 156,000
SNP vote 2005: 412,000 loss of 52,000
LibDem vote 1997: 365,000
LibDem vote 2001: 378,000 gain of 13,000
LibDem vote 2005: 528,000 gain of 150,000
Tory vote 1997: 493,000
Tory vote 2001: 360,000 loss of 133,000
Tory vote 2005: 369,000 gain of 9,000
as you can see there have been huge changes in votes within the 4 main Scottish parties over the past 3 elections with only a handful of seats changing hands. You have to decide where each party is going 10 weeks tomorrow in votes and if you guess correctly then you could make good money on Scottish seats.
“Do the Tories in Westmorland hate each other even more than they do in Westminster, Southport and Norfolk?”
I think their divisive troubles are now behind them. The arson element is interesting, although I can’t see it working to anybody’s favour.
Want to know what’s better than winning the lottery by W&L standards? Try this… http://bit.ly/9QuueU
346, Osborne called for recapitalisation before the Government did it. His IHT pledge at the 2007 conference precipitated the most rapid polling turn around since the Falklands and forced Labour to attempt a pale imitation. He also led the way on calling for cuts in spending to reduce the deficit.
342. Wasn’t he just making the point that Belgium is a non-country in the same way the EU is? No one feels Belgian - they are either Flemish or Wallonian. Thus the real countries in that patch of land are Flanders and Wallonia.
342. How has he insulted a country?
Rumpy is there as EU President, not as a representative of Belgium.
He’s ripped a new one for this so called President (who voted for him? I certainly didn’t) imposed on us all by an unelected Commission.
I have no respect or time for him whatsoever.
And as for Belgium… well. Best summation I’ve heard for that place was from a senior army officer, “Good tank country, Belgium.”
353
Westmoreland sounds like a really exciting place. My heart could not stand the excitemnet of “spot the dog”….
Excuse my lack of knowledge here but, is there an expected poll tonight and, what frequency should we expect them until GE day?
Surely Farage is right, Belgium is two countries, plus a bit in the middle they both fight over.
337 - Max. The independent bodies will give their opinions and advice. The actions and policies will be decided by ministers who will be accountable politically.So watch out any minister who chooses to ignore “independent” advice and the minister’s decisions not resulting in the desired outcomes.
357.
“My heart could not stand the excitemnet of “spot the dog”….”
His cousin, Spit the dog, is running just ahead of the official conservative candidate in Westmorland
Tracker steady, I suspect.
Interesting Harris poll.
358 - Checkyegg, there is YouGov every Monday to Thursday night at 10pm and another comes out on Saturday night. Other polls follow their normalish patterns.
Easterross, I have no doubt that the vote shares will change substantially. There are, however, few seats that are likely to change hands if Labour’s vote share doesn’t collapse. Only 3 seats would fall to the SNP on a uniform swing of 10% from Labour. The Lib Dems are unlikely to gain votes in Scotland (indeed, the whole election could be summed up as: where will the lost Lib Dem votes go?). The Tories have few real targets and some of the most marginal seats in their sights are held by the SNP. There really seem very few seats that are at serious risk of changing hands.
Phew! so nailed on tory majority after all. I was almost a bit worried there.
Farage (not an intelligent man) was vey clearly modelling his speech on the Hannan dissing Brown speech. Trouble is that speech was at best borderline prattish; farage aimed very low and still missed by a mile. I did love the weird disapproval noises that MEPs made in response though, like a pod of whales complaining about the plankton.
tim, for what is “chopper” a euphemism?
Belgium-knockers should note that that ‘country’ has considerably superior first-class tennis player numbers that Britain (especially England!) pro-rata and even in absolute terms. They just have no Y-chromosomes.
362. Don, who have Harris polled for?
I liked it when Osborne said he will be “unleashing the forces of enterprise”
363. Most kind. Time for a brew then before the second feature of the night.
Play Bully II The Forces of Hell. Brief against your chancellor, release your attack dogs, throw Nokias, grab civil servants by their collars, yank secretaries out of chairs and even practice your denials. It’s as close as you can get to being a real Prime Minister.
http://www.redragonline.com/2010/02/rushed-to-market-bully-ii-forces-of.html
368.
GideO’s brother is advising him on ‘unleashing’ the UK towards a ‘Tiger’ economy.
354 - The biggest poll turnaround in modern history was after the knifing of Thatcher, the Tory vote dropped in the election after the Falklands remember.
368 - Prescription for change or changed prescription?
356. Osborne has had masterstrokes, but he’s also had cases of ineptness.
I feel that (rightly) banging on about how important cutting the national debt is, and then (wrongly) wanting to sell of state assets cheaply is one of them…
366. Who cares about tennis? It’s a poncey French game! In proper English sports like football and rugby they’re bloody useless!
355- Socrates 359 - John Lilburne
As far as I know, Belgium is still a sovereign state and, apart from Vlaams Belang, nobody advocates its breakup.
356- b.
“How has he insulted a country?”
By calling it “pretty much a non-country”
“imposed on us all by an unelected Commission” No he wasn’t. He was chosen by democratically elected heads of state and government. If Brown chose to support Ashton and accept Rompuy, it’s not the Commission’s fault…
“Good tank country, Belgium.”
I see you share Nigel Farage’s subtlety of analysis.
Just a remark: saying that Farage made a stupid error by making crass remarks in parliament doesn’t necessarly imply that:
- I love the EU (I don’t - and voted No to the Constitution referendum in France)
- I love Van Rompuy (I don’t)
- I love Belgium (I certainly don’t)
Sorry, I’m a bit of a lurker but just wanted to comment on an off topic point I’ve been thinking about. Has anyone thought about what might be coming up this weekend in the Observer? The book is being serialised in two parts, logically there must be more accusations yet to come, possibly worse than last weekend? Maybe with quotes from a named source? It just seems to me that the worse has yet to come, and Mr. Rawnsley will be keen to keep public debate stirred as the book is released (on Monday).
Am I right about this or have we heard the last of the issue?
360 I worry about the opposite.
If Osborne decides to follow the advice of the body and it turns out to be wrong he can lump the responsibility onto an unaccountable independent body. Labour have been doing it for ages…
377. A very interesting question, Justin.
376. Chris
Who is Britain’s ‘elected’ leader. I think you might find that might be a bone of contention. Technically, perhaps but even so it is a stretch…..
But Belgium isn’t good tank country.
The Ardennes in the east and an easily flooded coastal area to the west.
I suppose the bit in the middle might be okay as long as you didn’t get stuck on the wrong side of the River Meuse.
Justin, there will be more, but the usual way is that the most exciting stuff comes first. We can, however, be sure of a few more vignettes of Brownian emotion.
374 - The real benefit to the Tories from the bullying stuff and the intervention of Ms Pratt was that it diverted attention from Osbornes proposal on selling of the banks at below market price.
They were very, very lucky that the media spotlight was diverted from that one.
377 That’s the conventional thinking. There are also wildcards to consider though. The Sun are the wildest one, never underestimate their ability to come up with a witness (willing to go on the record) to Brown’s bullying. IF they can do that Brown is finished, if not we will have to wait until Sunday for the Observer and the resulting fall-out.
The harder Labour try and spin their way out of this mess the more guilty they look now.
380- jsfl
I tend to agree but the fact that Brown was unopposed to become PM is no particular proof that the evil European Commission chose Van Rompuy as EU President…
Enough on this subject. Back to work!
Farage and Rompuy.
A poor attempt at emulating Daniel Hannan’s address to Gordon Brown.
84, Max. Your surname isn’t Clifford is it?
383. But what is the “correct market price” for the state-owned banks? Shares can go down as well as up. The fairest valuation is the price they are currently trading at, and that’s a lot less than Brown paid for them.
The best thing about the bullying stuff is that it forces Gordon to go on TV and lie repeatedly when everybody knows it’s actually true. Doesn’t matter so much about him being a bully, just cements his reputation as a liar.
355. Socrates
” No one feels Belgian - they are either Flemish or Wallonian. Thus the real countries in that patch of land are Flanders and Wallonia.”
And Flanders and Wallonia aren’t much more than parts of Holland and France which are outside of where they belong for various historical reasons.
387 I’m not sure if that’s a compliment or an insult!
386. Yes, Farage hasn’t got an ounce of Dan Hannan’s class - he’s really just a third rate tub thumper.
327.madasafish, high praise indeed. Osborne remains very under rated though, he has finally been recognised as a very politically astute strategist to the detriment of his role as Shadow Chancellor. And yet Brown finally met his match in Osborne at the despatch box before becoming PM, and Osborne has been consistently ahead of the game economically too. Alas, Cable gets the media time while Osborne gets the policy right.
376. By “nobody” I assume you mean “nobody in the political elite” (the standard understanding in EU circles). Up to 45% of the Flemish people would like independence, and thoughtful publications such as the Economist have called for it.
Secondly, I don’t believe Farage ever questioned Belgium’s statehood, and has only questioned its sovereignty within the general grouping of all EU countries who have handed their sovereignty to the EU. What he did question was that they were a country - a geographic land belonging to a single nation - which I think can be described as “a fair point”.
383 “Osbornes proposal on selling of the banks at below market price.”
This is nonsense. There were special deals for customers and employees of the BT and other privatisations - with limits - and see no reason why the same shouldn’t apply to future privatisations of LBG and RBS.
In none of the earlier sales did the special deals severely impact the total revenues from the sales, since the offers were capped but they did widen the shareholder register.
And of course, tim needn’t bother taking up any offer it so horrifies him. Noone’s forcing individuals to buy.
If everyone’s so offended by the idea, then at some future sale date they could all be bought by the institutions.
Yes we have won!
Lab/LDs = cheerio!!
Ave it!!!
390 - Don’t forget the two German speaking enclaves as well. And doesn’t Flanders slip into France too? Look at the place names east of Calais and they look very flemish.
That said, I think some Belgians do feel Belgian. They just feel Walloon or Flemish more.
390. Strictly speaking, Flanders has been part of or united with bits of the Netherlands at different times, but not part of Holland - which is only one of the Netherlandish provinces.
There’s also a part of Flanders which is now in France.
382 - I didn’t know that was the case. I would have thought that they’d go for the most explosive stories right before release. But actually your description does match the serialisation of Peter Watt’s book in the Mail last month.
384 - I was also thinking along those lines too. There must be a pretty high price around for some poorly paid staffer to tell their story.
395 I listened to a chunk of Osborne’s speech and thought he’d got it.
The Tories now need to translate that into normal person speak big time.
395 - Isn’t the point to get as much money for the taxpayer as possible from the eventual sales? If you offer discounted prices, how is that possible? If it is about rewarding taxpayers, why not just give everyone over 18 a certain number?
377 - I would note that Rawnsley’s book covers Labour’s second and third terms - so there’s a lot of ground to be covered -
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/feb/23/gordon-brown-bullying-andrew-rawnsley
This is an interview the Grauniad did with him about the book, might have some clues in here
399 - The Observer is supposed to be broadly pro-Labour, so it could just be that there might be some positive stuff in the next edition. I doubt it though.
I haven’t looked at the bank share plans, but the very fact that Denis McShane and tim are complaining loudly suggests it’s a vote winner.
The Gordo plan as I understand it is to wait until the shares are worth more and sell them so that Gordo can spend the money all over again. Classic state socialism.
The Tory plan I imagine allows people to spend the same money themselves. Classic conservatism.
Would you rather have money in your bank account, or let the government spend it on diversity coordinators and benefits cheats?
357 Westmorland is indeed a wonderful county, nearly as great as Lancashire and Cumberland
376 I realise that there aren’t many Belgians advocating separatism - but in practice the two “bits” of Belgium pretty do much their own thing. Recently the country sent 6 months without a national government and it didn’t seem to be much of a problem. But if Belgium ever splits in two, it will be accident rather than design.
Spent a long weekend in and around Namur last year and stopped off in Beersel in Flemish Brabant on the way back home. Was struck by quite how different the two parts were, also (more recently) by the fact that I travelled over the track the recent train crash happened on, as we had to change trains at Halle.
Whether or not Belgium is good tank country or not - its traditional d=function is for the rest of us to have wars in, and it is a bit redundant at the moment!
401 Nope - the point is to get a reasonable price and to encourage the public to invest in shares and savings again.
It’s a cultural shift that they’re pushing.
Labour have totally wrecked the concept of saving through giant house price bubbles and raiding pensions.
384 - The more the Sun gets involved the better Labour will like it. Look how the polls have gone since the Sun endorsed the Tories.
383: ‘…was that it diverted attention from Osbornes proposal on selling of the banks at below market price.’
Rubbish! That was Ozzy’s finest idea to date. The person it reflected badly upon was crusty old St Vince, who was loftily intoning that the plebs, not being as clever as him, couldn’t be trusted to risk their own money investing in shares.
395 - Osbornes idea is sheer madness.
Either sell the banks when their market value has recovered and pay down debt or take on board Philip Blonds idea and use them to recapitalise the poor (a slogan Osborne actually used).
To flog the shares cheap to people who will sell them ASAP at a guaranteed profit shows the shallow side of the man.
407 - Didn’t house prices go up massively under Tory governments and then crash again? I know mine did.
395. We weren’t facing a serious debt crisis at the time of the last privatisations. Osborne is selling equity cut-price - that will clearly reduce the revenue brought in from them. Not participating in the offering does not alleviate my interest in them, because as a taxpayer I want the state I fund to get full value for money. There is no way the minimal expansion of share ownership is worth the lost revenue this will cost - particularly as uninformed shareholders is the last thing we want to encourage in supervising the banking system after recent events. It is a foolish idea to win votes at the cost of long-term prudent management. While I want the Tories to win the next election, I worry that this is becoming a trend.
The events of the last 24 hours have illustrated the paradox of Alistair Darling’s position.
For the next ten weeks, until polling day, Darling is “unassailable”, to use the word which Margaret Thatcher notoriously used about Nigel Lawson more than 20 years ago.
After the events of last summer, when Gordon Brown was forced to ditch his plans to install Ed Balls as chancellor, Darling has been in a very strong position, and will no doubt exert that strength to get his way in the pre-election budget, due in late March.
But Darling knows he will only be chancellor until polling day, and indeed that may give him a slight “demob” spirit, enabling him to be a little more loose in what he says.
Yet, in the unlikely event that Labour, against all odds, was to win the election, then Gordon Brown would be even more unassailable than his chancellor. Darling would surely be out, and Balls would almost certainly get the Treasury.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/newsnight/michaelcrick/2010/02/the_paradox_of_alistair_darlin.html
401 “Isn’t the point to get as much money for the taxpayer as possible from the eventual sales?”
You mean like the sale of gold reserves?
Any future privatisation of LBG and RBS will have many objectives, I’m sure. And one will be maximising returns. Another will be widening share ownership and rewarding employee loyalty no doubt. Where these conflict there will some trade-off for a greater benefit.
I just don’t see why such sales should be any different to those of BT or other utilities.
364 Antifrank Labour will be on 30-34%, SNP on 25-28%, Tory on 20-22% and LibDem 14-18% which creates huge shifts in vote numbers. I will be disappointed if at least 10 seats dont change hands including at least 1 Labour gain.
409 - So what about all the people who won’t be able to buy shares because they have no spare cash, but whose tax money helped save the banks in the first place? What do they get out of Osborne’s idea?
I notice that ‘tim’ has been posting for 13hrs today so far - is he on piece work?
410 “To flog the shares cheap to people who will sell them ASAP at a guaranteed profit shows the shallow side of the man.”
No, it shows your doltish and short-sighted nature.
Stark Dawning @409. Agreed.
There is one possible explanation for Darling’s outburst this week.
If we follow tim’s assertion that it makes him “stronger”, we need to ask, stronger for what?
More able to deliver a budget that will lose the election? Able to dictate the date? In line for the leadership, except he is going to lose his seat?
He could though be sending a message to whichever bank he expects to be working for after the election; don’t f*ck with me!
408 That’s ridiculous. It’s the other way around, ever since The Sun backed the Tories Dave got complacent and they have performed poorly. It has nothing to do with the Sun dragging them down in the way you are suggesting.
390 “And Flanders and Wallonia aren’t much more than parts of Holland and France which are outside of where they belong for various historical reasons.”
Erm… no, not really. The cultural differences between Belgium and either France or the Netherlands are quite striking. The Low Countries have been ruled separately from France for probably a thousand years. The fact that the languages are similar is largely irrelevant, in my opinion - and in any case, Wallonia isn’t traditionally French speaking, Walloon is a different Romance language, with standard French being, until the last hundred years or so, more the language of literature and the ruling classes.
Easterross, I do hope the Labour gain is East Dunbartonshire!
416: ‘What do they get out of Osborne’s idea?’
As taxpayers, their money recouped to pay for schools ‘n’ ‘ospitals. I’d have thought that was obvious.
394- Socrates
I was thinking of political parties (Vlaams Belang being the only pro-independence party), not “political elite” whatever that is… and thank you very much I don’t use “standard understanding in EU circles” - maybe because I’m a Eurosceptic living in the USA…
Is it possible to say something about your hero Farage without being considered a horrible Brussels technocrat?
And according to your definition the UK (from which UKIP gets his name) is not a country either…
416 ” So what about all the people who won’t be able to buy shares because they have no spare cash, but whose tax money helped save the banks in the first place? What do they get out of Osborne’s idea?”
No more nor no less than those in the same position at the BT and other sales.
A lot of excitement on here with regard to the AR poll - am I being dense here but this polling organisation has a vastly different methodology from ALL the other pollsters and are showing vastly different levels of support too. So why are we all taking so much notice of their marginals poll? My 3 year old wet herself with excitement earlier..I’m beginning to think that some of you guys on here are gonna do the same.
410 tim
I don’t particularly like the Osborne bank share discount plan.
That said, your objection is very simplistic. There is a very obvious answer to the immediate selling on problem.
Suppose the shares are sold at a discount of x% to the public. Stipulate that if the public shares are sold at time t < T for some set offset time T from the sell-off date, then the value at which they can be sold is equal to (100-x*(T-t)/T)% of the market value. After time T, they become normal shares.
411. The bubble was much bigger then before though, the truth is, we should have had a small recession around 2000 to 2002, a small bust, the popping the bubble. It didnt happen though, we essentially had a heavy Keynesian public sector boom, as Gordon turned the taps on, it almost didnt matter what happened in the private sector.
Unfortunately, recessions are good for economies, it gives them a shake up, they are like a forest fire, they clear the old dead wood and allow new growth.
416. No less than they are currently getting from Gordo.
Wage Slave
Osborne………………….”with his strategic silence at what to do when the banking crisis broke”.
That is a “Brown” type lie! The Tories suggested that major banks might have to be baled out when it was becoming clear there was a systematic failure in the Banking System. Once it was subsequently announced a few days later that the Government was going to do this bale out Cameron at the Tory Conference made it clear that the Tories would not in principle oppose the bale out and were supportive in principle.
413 It makes him a stronger candidate for the Labour leadership election. That’s why he has done it. Labour will lose with or without a giveaway budget. If Darling can stay ‘independent’ and deliver a credible, austerity budget he will do himself a lot of favours with the electorate.
427 - Wibbler.
That specifically excludes the poor.
Read Philip Blonds idea from where Osborne got his slogan but not his substance.
Re my post at 427
I missed out the obvious requirement that they can only be sold back to the bank/government (or possibly investors in the same class), not to institutional investors who would otherwise be guaranteed an arbitrage if they could buy discounted shares from the public.
425 - Well, won’t they be having to live with a number of cuts and potential tax rises because the government spent so much money saving the banks in the first place? I don’t recall that being the same with the BT, British Gas, Electricity etc sell offs. However, in broad terms, I take your point - if you can afford it, good for you; if not, well bad luck but thanks for you tax money for saving the banks in the first place.
432 tim
Do you have the link? I can’t be bothered to find it myself.
I don’t see why a “pro-rata discount” would exclude the poor. There is nothing preventing “the poor” getting deeper discounts than the general public. Indeed, quasimarkets seem to be a rather defining feature of Cameroon thinking.
I do think it’s a silly idea, but for the simple reason that the deficit is the most pressing worry. That’s why the inheritance tax cut, and the marriage tax cut are also poor ideas - not because they are intrinsically bad, but because they are not as important as cutting the deficit.
434 You could envisage a scheme of low-cost loans issued with the shares as collateral.
426. Yet another astroturfer.
434. “I don’t recall that being the same with the BT, British Gas, Electricity etc sell offs. ”
You’re suggesting the ‘owner-taxpayer’ never suffered any financial penalty for the years of losses accrued by the nationalised industries in total. Of course they did in direct costs to the Treasury in repeatedly bailing them out (not all of them, I acknowledge) and also in the higher costs of their ‘product’ due to their over-staffing and inefficiencies.
Does anybody seriously believe that Labour will sell off the shares. Never in a million years, they will find endless reasons not to but in the end it is all about the power of a national ownership.
There will probably be a manifesto pledge like there was for the Lisbon treaty/Constitution…
438 - Hmmm. I am not sure the amounts are comparable. But I agree, the privatisations in the 1980s were also to the benefit of the few at the expense of the many.
Is it expected that Royal Mail part-privatisation will be in the Labour manifesto? If not, why not?
Much is talked about banks being shored up with OUR money…why can’t one of the nationalised banks (Northern Rock?) be re-branded “The People’s Bank” and let the great British public vote with their feet to see where we bank. It could be run as an ethical bank yet still on commercial grounds - no obscene bonuses, no rip off charges, sensible lending to British companies it could even utilise the Post Offices as secondary level branches. If it’s run on those terms at last the public can show the High Street Banks what we think of them. Just watch those Billions of pounds of profits drain away…they’ll soon change the blimmin banking system then !!
440 “But I agree, the privatisations in the 1980s were also to the benefit of the few at the expense of the many.”
Nonsense. I know you’re addicted to the sneer but really that takes the biscuit.
Now I’m off out, so that’s my last word on the subject.
413 In other words who cares what darling says or does anyway.
The problem with George Osborne is that he seems to walk on the balls of his feet so when the BBC show those dreadful continuity shots before interviewing him, he looks more like Bones from Thunderbirds with a suit on.
On social mobility: I reckon there will obviously be large takeup of any shares amongst ABs - but the discounts will bring in many Cs. In that sense, it could be a good “social mobility” policy for the “visible poor”.
It will do little for the DEs - but then Labour hasn’t done much for them either.
442. One more word….before I go.
The People’s Bank. We had one. It was called Girobank and it was generally pretty poor. I know, I worked for it for a couple of years.
Now. I’m off.
410. tim: “sell the banks when their market value has recovered and pay down debt or … use them to recapitalise the poor”
There’s no guarantee their market value will ever be higher than it is today.
Or have you discovered a ’swingback’ principle for financial markets? If so, do tell.
Isn’t there a poll due this evening?
445. The man needs to learn a proper public school swagger.
449. Well get the YouGov/Sun tracker and “Don” at 362 hinted that theres a Harris about to come out as well.
445…I think that should be Brains…not Bones…he was in Star Trek..although the acting was equally as wooden. Incidentally my Chemistry teacher at school was the spitting image of Brains (but no strings of course)…hello Mr Curzon, if you’re out there !
The Electoral Commission
Table 6: List of Quarter 4 2009 top donors.
Sir Nigel Doughty 1,010,000 Labour Party
Lord David Sainsbury 1,000,000 Labour Party
David Rowland 738,000 Conservative Party
Unite - AMICUS Section 540,039 Labour Party
Stanley Fink 501,640 Conservative Party
Lord John Sainsbury of
Preston Candover 500,000 Conservative Party
I see it does not run in the family Sainsburys do seems to have devided loyalities, if different sized pockets.
From Guy Fawkes
448. “There’s no guarantee their market value will ever be higher than it is today.”
It’s worse than that. Unless the market value rises at least as fast as inflation, they will be worth less in real terms
yougov @ 10pm
448 - Just take one day’s sales figures from each of 12 random shopping centres/High Sts over the last year, average all of those, reduce the Conservative share by a bit and hey presto you have the FTSE close for 30 June.
422 antifrank that is the one I am contemplating
Darling can say what he wants from now on, there is no way he’ll be C of E after the next election, and if he manages to keep his seat, he’s tainted by the stink of Brown and so will be in a weak position when Labour start to fight for the soul of their party. Maybe he just wants to gain a little bit of self respect when it’s all over and done with?
448.
“There’s no guarantee their market value will ever be higher than it is today.”
That’s what Gordo thought when he sold our gold reserves.. look where that got him!
OT, you are probably aware of Labour’s “Change we See” campaign, to highlight exactly where and how they pissed our billions up the wall.
Here you go
http://www.redragonline.com/2010/02/stafford-hospital-theres-change-we-see.html
460 ‘real change for real people’
451, Don is a prophet of polls, so I’m inclined to believe him.
431 Max there is the small problem of him remaining an MP which my spies tell me is looking less likely every day. Cllr Jason Rust is expected to be the new MP for Edinburgh SW
Jesus, thats 21 Tory gains in Lib Dems seats if the swing is right! I’m hoping it won’t be any larger than 3% though!
461 et al Mr Dancer and Mr Don - when did Harris last do a poll in the UK?
I can’t recall one in many yonks…
462. Indeed.
461. Sorry, but isn’t this a take-off of The Thick of It?
‘Simple toys for simple people’.
413.Please don’t mention the finances.
Revenues are down by £40 billion to January 2010 against forecast, yet Darling continues with his ‘borrowing is on track at £178 billion’ line. No wonder he’s laying false trails to keep everyone off the scent of the real story - the sorry state of our finances.
Spending is ahead of forecast. This year which included ‘interventions’ has spending at over £800 billion , and revenue of £450 billion.
Borrowing is well over £350 billion - 25% of GDP. Without interventions included, 20% of GDP. Shhhhhhh!
Farage is a total b3ll end.
To insult Belgium to make a stupid point about an individual does this country no favours at all.
60. “Change We See” campaign, “Future Fair For All” campaign.
Have they got Yoda from Star Trek writing their slogans?
Labour, “The Future Fare for All”
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2394/2419038588_3fc5fed646.jpg
465, hehe, I’m bemused by your suggestion I might know that sort of thing
I’m here purely for silly space cannon posts.
Well, those, and F1 tips. F1 tips, and space cannons my two themes. And enormo-haddock.
Enormo-haddock, space cannons and F1, my three features, along with taunting tim.
Doubt this is definitive but the BBC poll tracker suggests 3 May 2005:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8280050.stm
Also, it has yet to feature Angus Reid.
70. Star wars, should be!
471, those upset easily probably shouldn’t click the link TC put up at 471. It could’ve used a warning, to be honest.
465. Appears to have been June at the height of the expense’s row;
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention
Shares then were 35/20/16
We want a Budget.
Budget Budget Budget.
Repeat ad finitum.
451. So Harris are about to come out of the pollster’s crypt? Good on them! Funnily enough Lou Harris was featured on the 74 GE rerun!
476
No, we want a General Election!
So, if the expected YouGov poll tonight shows an increase in the Tory lead from their previous poll, does this mean that the AR figures released this afternoon ( I assume they are at least a couple of days old), if they were re-sampled tonight say, would/should improve also? MoE considered.
453 The Sainsburys are like those smart families during the English Civil War and Scots Jacobite Risings, one son on one side and another on the other side so the family always wins. The Rothschilds played that game to perfection during the Napoleonic Wars with one son in London, another in Berlin, another in Paris, another in Vienna and I think also one in St Petersburg.
I was spoofing, but, i was looking over some government scheme last week that was named:
“real help for real businesses NOW”
That was literally the title of the document.
A Future ‘Fair’ For All - Browns Vision
http://www.thelighthouseband.com/Wasteland/images/wasteland1.jpg
SHADSY ON RADIO
http://www.toryradio.com/2010/02/24/latest-from-the-political-betting-market-from-ladbrokes/
ladpolitics
Ladbrokes currently forecasting a Tory Maj of 16 based on seat by seat betting. http://bit.ly/d3MtWW
I am on here,have the Spurs Bolton game up. plus the Inter Chelsea game up !!!!
Inter winning 2-1, Spurs 2-0
SHADSY PODCAST
http://bit.ly/d3MtWW
478 - Personally, I want a Budget first.
Which is why Labour should have gone for March, really.
OT, I have learned that the investment arm of the Treasury has written to Royal Bank of Scotland’s board, giving formal approval for the bank to pay £1.3bn in bonuses in relation to its performance in 2009.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2010/02/government_approves_13bn_of_rb.html
How convenient is that for someone who might be looking for a job in banking in Edinburgh in early May…?
I thought we were due a MORI rather than Harris?
Wibbler - Blond on Recapitalise the Poor.
http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/2009/02/riseoftheredtories/
Or as you say, prioritise debt repayment.
Osbornes proposals are incoherent, contradictory mush.
488 and your man Darling has a record of abysmal forecasting and is in an untenable position. I guess you could fall back on the conomic genius of Gordon oh wait…
Osbornes proposals are
incoherent, contradictory mush.electoral gold and must be destroyed !!I know what the polls are showing here and I’ve long backed on the basis that UNS was a load of old bunkum before such marginal polls were doing the rounds.
It does not take away, however, from the fact that the Tories are not hitting the target. They need realize that soft shoe strategy of trying to avoid being too controversial is in fact controversial, because it isn’t working.
Tough times, strong leadership, Simple stuff. I have no doubt the Tories are capable and will sort it out but its too slow right now.
The forgetful bully.
David Cameron’s communications director, Andy Coulson, will come under fresh pressure to defend his editorship of the News of the World and his knowledge about the illegal activities of his journalists amid new allegations about the paper’s involvement with private detectives who broke the law.
The Guardian has learned that while Coulson was still editor of the tabloid, the newspaper employed a freelance private investigator even though he had been accused of corrupting police officers and had just been released from a seven-year prison sentence for blackmail.
The private eye was well known to the News of the World, having worked for the paper for several years before he was jailed, when Coulson was deputy editor. He was rehired when he was freed.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2010/feb/24/andy-coulson-news-of-the-world
489. I did wonder at PMQs with Gordo lauding Darling’s brilliance whether Cameron would read out the list of spectacularly wrong forecasts he has made in the last 3 years.
397: Like SeanT thinks of cornwall? Or is it Lands End?
492 non-story
489 - I have to say voreas, I’ve dealt with some morons on this site over the last year or so, but your performance today ranks pretty highly.
Although I’d like to thank antifrank and Richard Nabavi for doing some Supply Betting Teaching this afternoon while I nipped out.
It’s a shame you learnt nothing.
“The terror of his ways
A Times Online reader’s reponse (re Gordon Brown and bullying): “It’s not the reign of terror that bothers me. It’s the reign of error.” ”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/matthew_parris/article7039975.ece
84 Wrong SeanT - The Tories will certainly not deliver lower taxes - on the contrary, taxes are bound to increase and by some measure, especially income taxes and VAT and for many, many years. They won’t win any votes by telling huge porkies about this.
The really, really big “L” you have rather disingenuously included is “Lower Debt”, almost as if this happens by magic, when instead what you really should have referred to in your list and which must happen on a truly enormous and unprecedented scale is: Lower Public Expenditure amounting to many tens of billions per year and continuing for many, many years. The Tories will actually win votes by being honest about this, especially since the majority of voters are sufficiently intelligent to realise that this is inevitable.
The UK has become accustomed to enjoying Champagne when we only have Ginger Beer pockets. It simply cannot continue - we’re bust!
493 Whats the point, Darling is finished whatever happens, best to let him be a thorn in the side of Brown for a little while longer.
Wonder how the Gordo / Darling peace conference has gone? Has Darling been spotted with any nokia-esque dents in the side of his head?
497.
Probably got it from this:
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2010/02/political-artist-goes-for-brown.html
492 - really think attacking bullies is a thin seam now, Tim.
Press officer as bully is not much of a story compared to the bunker chief being fingered by his Chancellor.
498..of course,Peter, you are right. The Tories should be honest about the pain that is to come but so should Labour…however the problem that Labour have is that even if we could imagine a scenario where they actually were honest with the electorate then the Tory press would rip them to shreds….the difference is Labour can’t be honest…the Tories haven’t got the guts to be honest
Ahem. *Clears throat*
“Worst government ever”.
That is all.
Good news, but did anyone really think Labour were going to avoid defeat?.
So, is Balls safe or is he deemed to be in a marginal?
496 Thanks for remininding me of the school of Tim, Would that be the same school that said not to play Flintoff in last years ashes?
Your poor judgement and forecasting is on a par with Darling’s.
499. “Whats the point, Darling is finished whatever happens,”
Oh indeed, it would just be fun. When Gordo shouts “he was right, they were wrong” to respond with a list of all the things he got “right” would be entertaining. That’s the whole point of PMQs is it not?
Morris Dancer February 24th, 2010 at 9:00 pm
Sorry I thought a few dead animals heads was not shocking.
Compared to what this Govt are doing to us.
492 - Desperate times for Labour. The story has not got much traction so this pathetic piece is run the next day. Does Labour really want to be on the receiveing end of the Murdoch empire so close to an election because it looks like they do? Very bad judgement.
Tomorrow is thursday February 25th. A good for Gordo to go to the palace.
It’s amazing how many GE’s were started on a thursday.
510: GE’s = GE campaigns
500 - watching them be best mates again will be like seeing a clearly battered wife insist than no, no, no she just fell down the stairs and they are very much in love.
492 tim your Coulson posts invariably boil down to an uninteresting meditation on the theme that howwid people are howwider than non-howwid people.
It seems to me that this bloke had paid his debt to society and deserved a fresh start on his release from prison. This may seem to you an over-optimistic approach but in real life it often pays dividends. Nelson Mandela, for example, has not reoffended since his release.
503. The only reason Labour cannot be honest is because they have made such a disatrous mess of everything they are afraid to admit how bad it is.
The newspapers will rip them to shreds but they will do so not primarily because of their political leanings but because Labour have been so dishonest for so long (it’s in their DNA)!
Re 514. disatrous=disastrous
54 - “Labour are facing heart of England annihilation.”
Indeed they are….. oh well never mind
When do we get the tables for this poll?
513. The rehabilitation of offenders is much in the air this evening…
http://howarddenton.blogspot.com/2010/02/mcbride-it-wasn-me-guv.html
516
Oh dear what a shame.
The YouGov daily poll will be published here at 10pm
Do we have the Angus Reid tables yet?
502 - As you’ve pointed out david, Coulson simply isn’t very good.
Please forgive me if this has already been raised and I have missed it:
National sample is 4004 which refers to whole poll - national.
Marginals sample is 1254 - I assume this refers to second poll which is Labour’s 150 most vulnerable seats.
Therefore what was the sample for LD held seats please? Is at around 400? If so, then if two thirds of LD held seats are marginal, presumably the sample would be as low as 270. Surely with samples this small there would a significant margin of error and hence not reliable?
Like many posters on this site, I strongly believe the Conservatives will do very well in Labour held marginal seats thus maximising their swing where it matters but I believe they will pick up few (single figure number)of LD held seats. I also believe LDs will pick up a few Labour held seats (around 5).
Nevetheless this poll is brilliant news for the Conservatives.
510. Is Gordon a fan of Jim Jiminee?
I of course refer to their EP “Do it on Thursday”, not their album “The Thatcher Years”!
Half the problems we have in this country result from the biased press. There’s a misguided belief that it is possible to have something for nothing in this world…well you can’t. Take for example, the Baby P tragedy…the press crucify Social Services and demoralise every social worker in the country and yet when it’s found that they’re under-staffed do the press accept any responsibility for it?…and when extra tax-payers money is needed who’s there opposing increases in taxation to finance such things…you’ve guessed it..the Press…ditto for the Social Care timebomb
Gideon Osborne will always be the Tories weakest link. Look at his weekend ‘wheeze’ about giving the public shares in the nationalised banks. The policy exploded on its own ineptitude, what an ‘oik’ Giddy is.
523 - i think the fact it has such a large sample is a very good thing, it means that there is more data to be mined and analysed and frankly probably a better indicator than a sample of say 500.
George O for 2010 Nobel prize in economics and winding-up lefties.
Hoorar for Spurs and the blue team…
522 - But I don’t see your obsession with him to be honest.
I really don’t see why you spend so much of your time trying to attack the Tories when the alternative is YEARS more under the worst PM since, if we’re kind, Eden. If we’re not kind, ever.
If Coulson was the Tory leader, it would be valid to be so obsessed. Indeed, I am pretty obsessed with the useless lump that IS the PM. It is a source of unending frustration with the top Tory team that they have not yet ground Labour down to the 20% of people who have had Labour-inked Lobotomies.
Tories and Lib Dems to oppose controversial Digital Economy Bill clause
Controversial proposals that would give Lord Mandelson unprecedented powers to amend copyright laws will be jettisoned next week when the Government suffers the first large defeat of its flagship media plans.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7039972.ece#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=797084
522. Hmmm. “Coulson simply isn’t very good.”
Which is why he is attacked constantly?
“Osborne is a liability”
Which is why he is attacked constantly?
Methinks the bunker doth protest too much.
Is there a Sun/Yougov poll tonight and if so when will we get the proper results or are we going to have more double figured Tory leads leaked on twitter until the real result comes out?
http://redrag1.blogspot.com/
529. “Hoorar for Spurs and the blue team…”
What about the Mighty Villa?
maybe Dave should be worries a bit more tonight..
David Cameron’s communications director, Andy Coulson, will come under fresh pressure to defend his editorship of the News of the World and his knowledge about the illegal activities of his journalists amid new allegations about the paper’s involvement with private detectives who broke the law.
530 -Its not an obsession, more of a prolonged thank you note.
The gift of Grayling and focusing the campaign solely on Cameron just as his ratings began to fall deserves that, don’t you think?
535 - you new trolls aren’t very subtle, are you?
When can we ask YouGov about these weighting changes?
I want an interesting YouGov poll. Maybe they can weight by eye colour tomorrow.
Well known made up fact that people with dark black eyes vote Labour.
While blue-eyed, atttractive blondes with slightly Germanic postures vote Tory.
People with green eyes have long been known to be predisposed genetically to the Liberals.
531. “proposals that would give Lord Mandelson unprecedented powers to amend copyright laws will be jettisoned next week when the Government suffers the first large defeat of its flagship media plans. “
Some mistake surely?
Lord Mandelson is an infallible genius! Do you not remember his brilliant handling of the Post Office privatisation? Single handedly saving LDV? Rescuing Cadbury workers from redundancy?
Oh, wait…
Do we have a date for the Budget Statement yet?
If we are indeed to have a pre-GE Budget, it must surely be announced soon.
535 Is there an echo in here?
533- red rag
The answer is in post 521…
faisalislam
Have economists witnessed the birth of ‘Osbornism’? http://bit.ly/aSqyUS
533 - Don’t believe any ten point leads on Twitter.
The public believe strongly in assisted suicide. So they will probably really approve of Darling helping his boss out.
537. Their sophistication grows exponentially, first it was just a simple name, like bob or Rachel, and then it became BobP, now its P Bob.
Right I’m going to try this again. And Tim if you answer me this time I promise I will go back to lurking and never leave one of my asinine one theme comments ever again…ready….
Go on give me a list of positive reasons to vote Labour - A Tim pledge card for all to read, keep and treasure.
On twitter, the Conservatives have surged ahead by 30 points! Landslide likely….
YES - Come on Stoke
534. Hoorar for the Villans at the coming weekend!
Good luck to the British / Scottish (result depending) mens curlers too!
Boohoo for Coulson obsessors.
And of course, IFAs love tim, IHT and now really love 61% marginal tax coming your way in April.
538 - Tell me about it, in the last poll, they weighted by party politcal identification however, since when did Labour Loyal and labour disloyal become a party id.
http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/Sun-results_23.02.pdf
Its on the last page, it made me laugh.
546. Sorry Grendel, what you seek is as mythical as your name…
533- Whoops! - Cheers for that Chris, I missed it.
543: Sounds like good sensible stuff from Osborne. No wonder tim hates it.
533- red rag
By the way your blog’s content is incredibly offensive, vulgar, violent and homophobic…
540. And if not, the election must be announced soon.
Parliament must be dissolved on Tuesday for a 25 March GE, and probably announced tomorrow or Friday to allow the ‘wash up’ to take place. But can Brown risk a Darling budget? After today it looks even riskier than it did before.
Isn’t it about time we had the 2009Q4 GDP revisions? Are they waiting for a good day to bury bad news? Or is every day like that now?
Cameron at PMQ’s..’any closer and they will start kissing’
Sounds like something someone in short trousers would say, and this is a candidate for PM. No amount of ‘airbrushing’ will disguise this lightweight.
555 - Revisions are due on Friday
Labourlist tweet:
labourlist Latest YouGov tracking poll: Con 38, Lab 32, LD 19.
This ‘R Gale’ appears to have been locked in the Downing Street bunker. Such childish comments are normally attributable to the juveniles in the kindergarten working for Broon!
Remember you childish oaf, this is a betting site and posts, such as your ultra juvenile one at 9.54 shows an intelligence quota of minus 2!
492 The cry of pain from Michael White, that the Guardian’s longed for Select Committee Report was overshadowed by Hellgate tells you all you need to know about the failure of the Guardian’s campaign against Murdoch, Wade & Coulson and co. Tom Watson’s paragraph inserted into the report and voted in on partisan lines has been wasted. It’s not News anymore, it’s Olds.
This Parliament is coming to an end, Select Committee Reports from it, if not acted on and there isn’t time now for any actions, will gather dust in the HoC Library. The General Election will most probablt result in a change in Government but anyway, like Darling, Coulson will have new employment afterwards whatever the result.
555. Its perfectly possible that we’ll have a slight upside as much as downside on those but Labour have nothing that they can hang to as the upside is unlikely to be so much as to give them a platform to crow.
As for the figures for Q1 this year….
Im a lib dem to tory swing voter in cheltenham. Im sure the torys will win back cheltenham and maybe gloucester too definately stroud
drakes drum, any more bullying and I’ll have to phone Mrs Pratt and that helpline!
551 Creep!
Its been put up on UKP as a 6 pt lead. Stalemate then !
Can read good or bad for both the main Parties in this. Still find it strange that a tracker poll shows no change for 3 nights running.
Ok, slight tangent.
Having looked at these results I see now that AR is probably the best pollster about for recording how people want to vote. I think it’s also now clear that the AR polling for “others” is real.
The only problem is the fact that it doesn’t take into account that not everyone will be able to vote for a major minor, and so the headline figures should be adjusted accordingly.
In 2005 the total vote for “others” in the whole UK was 10.3%. This breaks down into 6.4% for SNP/PC/NI parties/“other others” and 3.9% for the major minors UKIP/BNP/Green.
Lets assume that for various reasons that support for SNP/PC/NI parties across the UK will not vary too hugely because of geographical reasons and that the support for “other others” will too only change marginally as they only represent a small fraction of votes to begin with.
So the major difference between a poll and the actual result of an election for the “others” in total is dominated by the performance of the “major minors”. Unlike the Nats and NI parties they do not stand in all the seats they could politically contest. The maximum seats for the 3 would be 630 x 3 = 1890, but in 2005 this was only 817 or 43%. Now the polls mostly seem to give these 3 parties scores within MOE of each other, and the average votes per constituency in 2005 backs up the idea their support across the country was very similar so I’ll assume the seats are interchangeable.
This suggests that the actual UK support for the major minors in total in 2005 was nearer 9%. This would mean if a “good” poll was taken in 2005 then it would give a value for the “others” of about 15.8% in total.
So why are people crowing when AR gives the others 17%? If anything I’d say that’s an underestimate in the growth of support since.
Conversely this means that AR probably won’t be the best pollster at the GE because there’s no weighting for the fact the major minors will not be standing in all the seats available. Other pollsters that naturally give the Others lower scores will perversely get it right.
I would take AR seriously, but you need to adjust for the overstatement of the major minors and thereby boosting the main parties percentages.
561, forgot that helplines been disconnected…heard about a crisis meeting in Notting Hill, more in the Spectator.
Just stumbled across an old article on the Beeb’s website. If this isn’t a glaring example of centre-left bias I don’t know what is:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8087300.stm
@172:
Linky?
DEAR NIGEL. This man has been Prime Minister of a European country. What about you?
Dear PB.com friends, I’m glad to announce that the UK enjoyed a 0.3% percent growth during the 4th quarter of 2009, instead of the 0.1% previously reported.
Joke: maybe with AR calculations, GDP growth would be negative!
Good news for Davide Cameron?