Daily poll has lead down to just 2 points
February 28th, 2010
CON 37% (39)
LAB 35% (33)
LD 17%(16)
Gordon could still get his five more years
According to the News of the World the latest daily poll from YouGov has the above figures which would probably mean that Labour would end up with most seats.
This has now been confirmed by the Sunday Times itself - story here.
This is a fantastic poll for Labour who, almost unbelievably, are now only per percent down on what they were at the 2005 general election when they got 36%.
I very much share the view of Anthony Wells at UKPR who writes -” All I can say is what I always say when a poll shows sharp movement – until we see some more polls that support or contradict the further narrowing of the polls – be wary.”
The pollster has gone through massive system changes in recent weeks to prepare for this daily polling and I wonder whether some of the dramatic change might have something to do with that.
One factor, highlighted here by Flockers on Friday, is that the views of people with Labour ID’s are having to be scaled up by quite a degree in order to meet the “quota” for each poll. This is something that they have not had to do in the past to the same extent and you just wonder why that is happening now.
A real issue at the moment is that YouGov is almost the only game in town. The only polling we have seen that’s taken the temperature since last Monday has been the online firm.
The firm’s Peter Kellner will be taking part in a Q&A on PB on Tuesday afternoon.
Betting: Betfair most seats market has 6/1 still available - that might be worth a trading punt. With Ladbrokes it is 11/2.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
broken tories on the slide.
YouGov:
CON 37 (-2)
LAB 35 (+2)
LIB ??
“…it would give Mr Brown 50 seats more than his rival.”
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/743964/2-close-to-call.html
“As Tories gathered for a spring conference in Brighton, one party source said: “We are devastated.””
http://blogs.notw.co.uk/politics/2010/02/poll-cuts-tory-lead-to-just-two-points-.html
3% was in the narrative made in December. That was to be the level at the moment of the election being called if you remember. This must be the moment, it seems. This is the Labour Victory Narrative, consistent only with the election about to be rigged.
Smirk. It was the flying Nokia wot won it.
What? How? Where did labour gain support?
Gabble, go to bed. Three posts in a row is a good sign you’re working too hard.
Forget ‘time for election’, electing a minority as a majority would mean is ‘time for revolution’. Seriously, it’s been a hope of mine for years that we finally get a result which brings down the system and this would be it.
The country has taken leave of its senses, i’m getting out of here!
Didn’t David Roe earlier confirm the figures as still being a 6% lead? He noted the article headings from the ST-as in he had it in front of him. The NOTW report only says that the poll is ‘believed’ to show the 2% figures.
FPT:
Is this being stage-managed????????????????????????
The Tory lead falls to 2 points the day before a March election has to be called!
Let’s get on with it, I say. (I haven’t decided who to vote for yet).
Labour: free run of the media for a month and still can’t lead.
FWIW, Andy Cooke makes the Tories comfortably the largest party on this poll (guessing LD=17).
But, come on! Labour polling a higher share than the last election?
There’s also the delicious problem that labour don’t want to have to put into practice what they’re promising. This is going to be serious fun, I thought it would be a dull changeover but this is incendiary stuff.
Seriously this is just too suspicous. The day before the main speech of the conference? I fear I will turn into a tinfoil hat wearing loony at this rate….
I certainly agree that the Tories are doing very badly at the moment, but at the same time I don’t believe Labour support is only 1% down on 2005. They’re still over-estimating it a bit in my opinion.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch…
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/education/article7043962.ece
EXAM watchdogs secretly downgraded the GCSE results of thousands of pupils last summer to avoid a damaging public row over grade inflation, newly released internal emails have disclosed.
Wow! I can only assume it is all wrong, totally made up. The race is not tightening etc….
Of course it is tightening!
12. Did you really think Murdoch would allow it to be dull?
12 ukpaul. With you all the way.
If the next GE causes the collapse of this outmoded political system of ours in favour of something better, then I won’t be too upset!
11 - ‘But, come on! Labour polling a higher share than the last election?’
Yes, something’s not right this.
So Dave’s going to have to give his annual “speech of his political life” tomorrow.
dont believe it. But if true, people really are more stupid than i thought possible. indeed, if there is ever a reason for wanting to leave britain it is this, confirming the british people are a dying species when it comes to sound and intellectural decision making. i hope this poll isnt true for our nation’s sake.
Well at least it will allow for a readjustment for the Tories likes the Government’s rise in growth last week, from a lower base comes a high rise…..
Much more balance on this site these days.
Are we 100% certain this is correct?
Just seems odd that there is no sign of it on the Sunday Times website. I would have thought the lead being down to 2% would be the main front page headline story.
Can David Roe confirm?
Sorry to repeat myself, but haven’t we already had it confirmed that the lead is 6% from someone reading the article?
Labour are, of course, still behind where they were in January last year.
18. As I suggested a few days ago, but for Iraq, Labour’s share in 2005 would have been about 39%.
That might be a more realistic figure to make comparisons with…
17 - First thing - enact a bill whereby parliament reflects the votes cast, second thing - dissolve parliament for an election under the new rules. A simple but effective message that would create a mass movement. No ideology, no partisan politicking, just a committment to electoral justice.
Labour have hogged all the media narrative recently and I have yet to meet a single person who intends to vote for them -to quote Victor Meldrew - I don`t believe it !
24. Rod Crosby.
That’s as maybe, but wouldn’t it be fair to say that the voters who went LD in protest predominantly did it in safe seats? How many seats did Labour lose because of Iraq (other than BG&B)?
25 Agreed. It would mean the complete destruction of the existing party systems of course. Throw in STV to give the voters more power as well, and we might be getting somewhere….
As far as I’m concerned the News of The World is reporting it. When was the last time that a stable mate of a newspaper reported figures wrongly?
It all seems a little to convenient to me but IIRC this is what happened back during the Brown bounce. Didn’t someone also say about a 5 point move on Spin earlier tonight as well.
Just a reminder of what David Roe said on the last thread:
“I have the ST front page in front of me.
Cameron Hits Back at Tory critics
Top general says army in morale crisis
And as far as I can see, the poll is 39/33/17
by David Roe February 28th, 2010 at 12:04 am”
Now I’m not saying the NOTW is wrong but after the various antics of the last week I think it’s right to be cautious.
ukpaul at 25
I totally agree with everything that you’ve written in that post. Well said - indeed I fail to see how any fair minded person could possibly disagree.
Those millions of immigrants who are now voters as well as inactive and unemployable benefit claimants, and of course public servants who think they should be guaranteed a job for life need to vote for their own survival.
No threats EVER of labour cutting benefits to pay for the defecit; that is their core vote!
As they make up about 40% of the population, and 35% of those who will vote these days that is what will happen.
I agre with Rod crosby that labour waverers went to the Lib dems over Iraq, and that aspect has not been played well by the LibDems the last few years. Even a last minute panic and demand to get out cannot save them.
Thos is a battle between those who have private sector jobs and want to pay less tax, and those who want the status quo continued as they will be alright even if the country goes down the toilet.
Are YouGov just making this up as they go along?
People who are confused as to why Labour could score higher than in 2005. You forget three important things, Iraq and Blair, and the real prospect of a Tory victory.
25 - To expand further, this is the perfect time for a mass movement; corruption in parliament through cash for honours and so on, theft of public money by MPs and Lords, exposure of smears and lies at the heart of politics, people turning away from voting at all, others’ high support showing the depth of anger at the main parties etc. etc.
I’d been thinking of seeing if there could be an electoral movement based on the above alone but thought that it wouldn’t have the sort of result that would light the touch paper.
“Shy Labour” voters crawling out the woodwork, or an increase of “Shy Tories”?
In December I noted a Times article written by Francis Elliott which said that ‘Labour election planners’ ‘foresee’ a 10% poll lead on January 1st, which will be down to 0% by election day. There was a sickening certainty in the report that this is what would happen. Polls are being used to prepare the public for a Labour Victory. The Final Days Of British Democracy.
“GMTV newsgirl Gloria de Piero has quit her job on telly in a bid to become a Labour MP.”
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/showbiz/741972/Gloria-quits-GMTV-sofa-for-MP-seat-Gloria-de-Piero-to-contest-Geoff-Hoonrsquos-seat.html
30- Plus David Roe noted the headings for the poll article page in the Sunday Times. Perhaps the exact figures had not been printed then?
Twitter:
paulstpancras: @StephenNolan C37-2 L35+2 LD16 - NotW yougov
http://twitter.com/search?q=yougov
31 - if there was a minority administration or a small majority it would also give enough breathing space to get things moving.
It’ll be fascinating to see if there are leader ratings in this poll. Brown’s unpopularity relative to Cameron is the Tories’ best hope for thinking they can turn this around, but if that gap has closed still further as well, they’ve got a major problem.
The way this is going we shouldn’t exclude the possibility of a majority Labour government.
This is all getting a little stupid. My money (if I actually decided to bet any) is still on a Tory victory - hurry up and call the sodding election, I want to see your horrid face booted out.
ukpaul were you happy with the current system when the tories had a 20 point lead? Damn right you were.
Now your preaching revolution like a commie.
37. And of course “swingback” gives them the perfect scientific validation to get away with such a heinous plot…
To return briefly to an old topic, it’s worth observing that we have GB-wide and Scotland-specific YouGov polls on the same day, and both show Labour down by exactly the same amount on the 2005 election - one point.
Just thought I’d point that out before anyone tried the old chestnut that Labour’s recovery can somehow be put down to them piling up votes where they don’t need it in Scotland!
655.My 1st post on here so bare with me… I don’t think the poll is being buried…. I think it will be front page in the finals. Just a case of Sunday Times trying to protect their story. So send out an early with an editorial discussing a stable poll (in the context of recent polls). Then when finals go to print the true story will be front page… After all after paying in the reion of £10′000 for a poll you wouldn’t want a competitor stealing the ’scoop.’
44 - No, you plank, because I’m not a tory (a disappointed lib dem in fact, the capitulation over AV being the main reason).
There’s a lot of anger out there and I wouldn’t ignore it if I was you, it may be diffuse at the moment but a simopke message of electoral justice will be a strong one. This is a result that all parties should be afraid of.
47 - simopke = simple…
The latest marginals poll showed a swing of 12%.
This poll shows a swing of 2.5%.
Bit of a gap between those two?
32 In the still,hypothetical scenario of,Labour winning a fourth term,the privtae sector would represent c.70% of UK plc=
and would receive sympathetic,’kidglove treatment’-the engine of growth.
FWIW,even as a 39 year-old Labour voter ,in Bournemouth of all places,why-oh-why are David Cameron and George Osborne and co,so happily snatching defeat from the jaws of victory-with say 10 minutes to play in a 90 minute soccer game-I am truly outstanded!
To all,from whatever politcal persuasion,all the best,I wish you all one and all the very best
Syanaora!
49 - 2 different firms showing 2 different national leads. It’s apples and oranges in this situation.
@philcane on Twitter (Rumour Central) says I have Sun Times front page in front of me. ‘Cameron Hits Back at Tory critics’ far as I can see the poll is 39/33/17
I asked him if last seeks he replies:
@fitaloon No tomorrows or todays whatever you know what I mean this is what I’m getting from one of my friends who’s running around London
Even with this poll, Brown would be out of Downing Street.
He would lose his 24 most marginal seats and the LDs wouldn’t prop him up in government.
Twitter
I have Sun Times front page in front of me. ‘Cameron Hits Back at Tory critics’ far as I can see the poll is 39/33/17
http://twitter.com/PhilCane
I just want to know whats fuelling this poll move? What have the lib dems done to deserve such desertion? Are all their members secretly wanting to be dominated by Gordon Brown’s clunking fist? Has Gordon’s bullying somehow made him seem like an ordinary man to the Chavocracy?
I just want to know whats fuelling this poll move? What have the lib dems done to deserve such desertion? Are all their members secretly wanting to be dominated by Gordon Brown’s clunking fist? Has Gordon’s bullying somehow made him seem like an ordinary man to the Chavocracy?
When does Cameron do his speech, or has he done it?
If,as my new label states,I would be left thinking:
(a)How did you lose,Cameron?
(b)Power comes with humility-and we had better show it and shape up after stupid mistakes c.2003-9
The Tories looked liked terrified rabbits today in Brighton. About 30 of them crammed around a narrow table in a meeting room. They looked ridiculous…
Can’t-Make-it Cammo and the Osborne twit were caught casting furtive glances at the camera. They did not look like leaders, but like members of the lower sixth form wondering if they’ve be caught smoking…
53. “the LDs wouldn’t prop him up in government.”
They wouldn’t have to ‘prop him up’, they’d just have to abstain on the Queen’s Speech. Would they really actively install a Tory government if Labour are the largest single party? I’d suggest they’d be looking for some pretty big concessions to even contemplate that.
52. Fitaloon.
That looks like a direct copy from David Roe on this very site.
Sunday Times front page (sort of)
http://twitpic.com/15r1gr
I thought there was a new arrangement where Peter Kellner was issuing the poll each evening to Mike Smithson embargoed for publishing at midnight (if not published beforehand).
56 - it’s votes not seats that will matter, in any case, this would be the perfect opportunity to channel the emotion engendered by an unfair outcome into something more profound and lasting, although disappointed by lib dems at the moment I still think they have enough fire in their bellies to make something of this.
59. Yes, but Mike didn’t have mobile reception this evening.
39/33/17
http://timesonline.newspaperdirect.com/epaper/viewer.aspx
NoTW is WRONG.
Anthony Wells is reporting the figures on UKPR. He works for YouGov and would not release figures until he had them confirmed by a representative of a polling company. If he’s reporting it you can be 100% sure that they are the correct figures.
Also… a bit of food for thought for people to chew on over their late night snack or early morning Breakfast:
Is David cameron goinbg to have to alter the tone of his speech tomorrow? The notion of it being his patriotic duty to win the next election did strike me & concern me prior to the poll news of sounding a tad OTT & in many ways an American style of campaigning where patriotism is a core component of the countries ideological structure. However, in the U.K I;m nbot to sure that will go down well as there is too much cynacism in politics.
Also, a change agenda may be a bit dangeriys too… The thing with Obama was that he was polkitically fresh, untouched by the system. Yes a risinbg star but known by few outside the political scene & political talk-show media so therefore Change, aspiration & hope could be a genuine tone of his campaign as he was seen as “un-corrupted.” Whereas David Cameron is much better known has beeen greatly scrutinized & vetted by the prees and voters may not believe the “change” agenda as they see him as somebody already embedded within the Westminster system.
I hope these points don’t sound Partisan at all I’m just asking out of genuine interest in People’s opinions.
56. James Kelly: Would they really actively install a Tory government if Labour are the largest single party?
No chance. Clegg would promptly be defenestrated by his parliamentary party.
This is it.
The GDP figures did exactly what I was predicting on Thursday night. Enough of an increase to brag about but not enough to ensure that the adjustment at the end of March doesn’t return the UK to recession so meaning that the UK hasn’t yet left. By a long way the last major economy to still be in recession - and all at a massive cost to future UK taxpayers.
The polls are narrowing to the point that Labour look capable of overhauling the Conservatives (thanks to YouGov’s mystery, non-existent Labour voter adjustment) and Gordon has been proved to be both a bully and a liar on the record and by verifiable, Labour-endorsed sources.
He HAS to go to the Palace tomorrow and March 25th HAS to be the election date.
Anything else is just stupid. The economy continues to be in recession and will not exit before May. The debt situation gets further out of hand and Quantitatve Easing has to be reintroduced.
Gordon’s “authority” and personal conduct can now be discussed openly and with full knowledge of his telling lies. If he can lie about that, how can he be expected to be honest about anything else - especially the economic situation. He can only counter this by knocking it off the news cycles which calling an election would do.
Tomorrow marks the last chance for Gordon to stand a chance.
He knows it. We know it. Go for it Gordon. March 25th - a dead cert.
Sorry (58) I couldn’t actually get the frontpage on the website so my pic is abit bad
57 That’s what I thought but he seemed adamant, He says off to try and get real copy of paper. Seems very strange
62. Jamie.
That’s last week’s Sunday Times.
62.
That’s last weeks, isn’t it?
A print screen from the Times online viewer.
39/33/17
http://i48.tinypic.com/2u9n7ld.png
63. Jayu: Anthony Wells is reporting the figures on UKPR. He works for YouGov and would not release figures until he had them confirmed by a representative of a polling company.
In that case, why is he citing the NOTW’s “belief” of what the ST says?
63. It appears from previous evenings that Anthony gets his figures from other sources, not from YouGov direct, odd though it may seem. Given Jamie’s link at 62, it looks like another evening of total confusion.
i hope this 2-points lead is wrong indeed!
69.
…from 21 Feb 2010
re 59 & 61. True. I’m on holiday in a remote spot on the Dorset coast - so remote that Vodafone does not operate here.
In recent days Peter Kellner has been texting me the poll on an embargoed basis at about 8pm. Whether he did that with this poll I do not know.
I’ve emailed him asking for the full details.
67/68 - Sorry, my mistake.
68. “That’s last weeks, isn’t it?”
Oh yes, so it is - Amy Williams is on it!
69. Jamie.
Yeah, you see that bit at the top where it says “21 Feb”?
56 If things trend too far Labour’s way,who knows,they may blow your hung parlianment theory by getting a bare overall majority-allowing for Sinn Fein in fairness-hey ho,the Tory gloryboys have had their way on here for too long-the best analogy,football-wise I draw is thus:
(a)1995-6 English Premier League;Kevin Keegan’s Newcastle 12 points clear in January 1996
(b)BUT-bit-by-bit,they are clawed back,as Newcastle lose ground to Man U..
(c)Who with c.4 weeks to go go top-and win the English Premiership of ‘95-6
(Spooky double-Sir Alex Ferguson,a fellow Scot to Gordon Brown,won!)
We will see pretty soon!
Gordon would be mad not to call an election asap. I am happy to believe these YouGov polling figures more or less but there is no way this can be sustained to May 6. If things are truly going so well for Labour politically why risk it all to hang on for a difficult budget or worse the chance of a Greek style situation emerging in the UK (even if unlikely). Gordon might even get further credit by giving the City among others the election they want that little bit earlier.
I’m beginning to think that the “adjustments”, “weightings” and “corrections” which are applied to the raw data from opinion polls are getting so ridiculous and convoluted that the final published results may well be just as wrong and unreliable as they were before the 1992 fiasco.
Twitter:
RT @novocastrianrob: Today’s YouGov/Sun poll has voting intentions of CON 39%(+1), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 16%(-3).
http://twitter.com/PhilCane
2-point lead or 6-point lead, I’m still in a revolutionary mood (and no, I haven’t touched a drop all evening).
All this endless dissection of margin-of-error poll movements while our political masters play their little games is making me mightily depressed.
We deserve better than this.
80 That’s rt of earlier tweet.
Where’s the chap on here who said recently “With three polls showing us with 17 point leads, we can do what the f*** we like! Get used to it!”
Anyone seen him?
80. Bit of an odd comment in the tweet that comes after that “it’s a f****** rumour in the NOTW”. Given that the NOTW is a stablemate paper, it’s either the truth or a catastrophic blunder, but there’s no way it’s a ‘rumour’.
82. Thats still different from the numbers quoted in the previous thread. Very confusing indeed. As I said earlier Sunday Times may not want to reveal the rumoured poll in their earlies but may present the true figure in their final. Time will tell.
Well, for whatever reason there’s an awful lot of Labour tweeters tweeting at the moment.
Well I couldn’t sleep, so I thought I’d have a quick surf to try and send me to sleep and this Labour Party members is saying that the YouGov is 39/33/16:
http://twitter.com/novocastrianrob
I cannot vouch for accuracy mind!
84 - ‘Given that the NOTW is a stablemate paper, it’s either the truth or a catastrophic blunder, but there’s no way it’s a ‘rumour’.’
The article says:
‘The YouGov survey in today’s Sunday Times is believed [my italics] to show the Conservatives on 37 points and Labour on 35.’
‘believed’?
gabble — LAB was at 33 in the last daily: cant be 33 (+1)
Numbers, numbers, numbers… where’s the BEEF?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1254297/No11-housekeeper-fired-30-years-using-Alistair-Darlings-shower.html
Does he want another sticking from the pitchfork?
If it is still 6 points then there is going to be an awful lot of disappointed and relieved people in the morning…..
Diraeli - the beauty of using this to change the system is that it isn’t a revolution, it’s democracy, whereby the majority get to have their say rather than having to kowtow to successive minorities.
This is the sort of result that will horrify all the parties, and rightly so.
87 Ahem! As a reasonale-minded West Ham United fan (which itself could drive you nuts!),I respectfully suggest to you,as a Soke City fan (and respect your tenacity,ability to garner middle0table safety),that I,
As someone with a C1/C2 background,with ‘his ear on the ground’,I am more than a ‘tweeter’ IMHO-sorry if I sound unnecessarily indignant!
91. ukpaul.
But what if there is no majority? (And most of the time there won’t be!)
90: Believed is press speak for we know something uou don’t… As people say it is a stablemate paper so its either made a catastrophic error (and may be advertising for a new political Editor in the near future) or the info is accurate.
Sky just held up ST front page - no sign of a poll.
It’s also making Kellner look stupid again.
Just release the damn figures when you have them….
86. I’m not an expert on Twitter but against the name Tom Watson it says:
“Not sure NOTW has it right. That was just the rumour at Brighton”
Does that mean Tom Watson wrote that?
94. This is making polling as a whole look stupid…..
92 - Well, this is going into the PR debate again and I’m sure people know the arguments by now. Suffice to say that a party, like labour, with 35% support could no longer impose their will on the majority.
Right, well I really need to go to bed because I have to fetch the GF from the hospital in the morning… I hope!
100: Its certainly making a few journalistds look stupid if they’ve gone to press on the rumours of a few jittery Tory conference goers.
I must live in the only part of London without a 24 hour establishment! What I can’t understand is why isn’t Anthony given the figures at the same time as Mike? It would make life much easier…
97 ukpaul. I doubt if any party in a PR system would get as high as 35% TBH.
There was a great discussion on here once, where some of the more intelligent contributors (not me!) demonstrated clearly how the various stands of political opinion would coalesce into several new parties. (Nutty left and right wingers, moderate left and right parties, center party, greens, nationalists)
Something is rotten in the State of Denmark
It’s all pretty exciting really. I wish GB would get on and call a March election. If the conditions aren’t right now, then when?
For myself, I don’t think much has actually changed. Conservatives are polling badly because of too much slippage to the Left and too making taking our core membership for granted. But we’ll still win, I think, by a reasonable majority.
If we didn’t, of course - then we avoid all this Scorched Earth that Labour have been preparing and THEY have to deal with it. It’d be win-win if not for it also being the end of the UK as we know it.
Roll on election day.
I don’t doubt that the numbers are accurate, or accurate enough. But what I don’t understand is why?! The economy is still boned, Brown is still Brown, Cameron is still as he ever was and there hasn’t been a policy announcement worth the name by either party in weeks or even months.
Even if support is draining away from the Tories for whatever reason, why is it being picked up by Labour? I just don’t understand what’s suddenly changed from a month ago.
“The YouGov survey places David Cameron’s Conservatives on 37%, as against 35% for Labour — the closest gap between the parties in more than two years.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7044185.ece
103. At last!
The Lib Dem figure is 17%. I hope we can discount the Scottish subsample this time, because the SNP are on 17% - and the Tories are on 14%!
I have to say that I have pretty much given up/ignored this last months polls. I think it is wishful thinking on many Labour supporters part to believe that a come-back is on. I simply believe that the polls are taken from more Labour supporting areas at times to make it look as if the polls are closing, maybe not on purpose, but it would explain the such drastic changes each day and from poll to poll if they move to different cities.
I still think Cameron will pull off the election but with a small majority of around 30. I simply cannot see there being a hung parliament and cannot see the British public wanting to face 5 more years of Brown.
As I said… A paper isn’t going to give a potenially massive story like that away in its early edition only for it to be potentially stolen by a competitor
YouGov Sunday Times:
CON 37 (-2)
LAB 35 (+2)
LIB 17 (nc)
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7044185.ece?token=null&offset=12&page=2
Hung Parliament, Labour 9 seats short
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/swing-calculator
Absolutely devastating poll for the Tories.
107. Absolutely devastating poll for the country!
7% say they’re less likely to vote Labour because of the ‘bullying’ stuff, but 5% say they’re more likely to vote Labour as a result of it. Or to put it another way, no-one really gave a monkey’s abnout the whole thing.
OMG I cant belive this!! What is going on? No poitn us whinging about the sample and weighting clearly somthing has gone wrong with our campaign if were 18% ahead this time last year.
I never pst on here but I desperatly do not want 5 more years of Gordon Brown!!!
We must get back on track, all hell is breaking lose over texts here in Brighton. We must not panic as scary as this poll seems
More pressure for Cameron.
He’s pulled it out of the fire before - I think he will tomorrow.
Things may look very different next week.
I said all along the voters were pulling Cameron’s plonker - they never had any intention of voting for him in any significant numbers.
I am sorry some people are going to lose a huge amount of money on this election…
110. tomorrow = today
Now wouldn’t it be funny if the main factor in shifting the latest poll figures is down to “disloyal Labour” supporters….
Well that’s a relief from a betting perspective. I sold the Tories and bought Labour with SPIN on the basis of the original report.
But we need to see the detailed data.
107.wibbler, check out the Scottish YouGov poll in the Scotsman tonight. Will be interesting to see if that poll uses this Labour loyal/disloyal weighting.
108- Agreed. The next few years will be very dark if the current lot get back in. Very sceptical that the Tory lead should collapse so rapidly in days when the news has been bad for Labour.
Maybe the economy has worked for Labour again. The 2008 crisis helped them, the last appalling, false PBR seemed to help them etc etc
But, if Labour get back in - God help us. Brown is, literally, one of the worst PMs in our history.
108 jsfl
Yes, indeed. Utterly, totally depressing.
Unless Labour’s internal polling is completely different, Brown surely has to go to the Palace on Monday and call the election for March 25.
Though there could be that part of him thinking he can get into an even better position and achieve an overall majority.
I still struggle to correlate the close polls with the feeling on the street, but that’s never easy to do down in Kent!
Crosby YouGov probabilistic
Lab 309
Con 262
LD 47
SNP 8
PC 5
Oth 1
NI 13
Lab 14 seats short, 0.9% swingback to Labour majority…
Didn’t expect Dave’s “time For Change” slogan to change the polls THIS quickly!
@Mike
Et tu Brutus?http://politicalbetting.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
127 Rod. It would be helpful (if you wouldn’t mind) to include the swingFORWARD required for a Conservative majority as well.
I don’t know, this might be some “Carrie”-type sh1t, where the polls suddenly narrow, Gordon jumps for it, and gets hammered because “oops, we were still working out the kinks in this daily tracker, sorry about that Gordon!”
Then again, Cameron tells people that “I’m doubling up on change,” and I’m not really sure who could vote for a man who says a thing like that. So it could be for real.
142. 3.8% swingforward…
“Even if support is draining away from the Tories for whatever reason, why is it being picked up by Labour? I just don’t understand what’s suddenly changed from a month ago.”
I don’t trust the magnitude of these poll changes at all but one thing that’s definitely been happening is the BBC’s “cuts will cause a double dip recession” narrative has been winning.
Tories should have a crew of bods who seal themselves off from all media and information apart from the BBC 6 o’ clock news. That way they’d know better what was going on under the radar which would start to show up a month or so later.
Be interesting to see if we get a 1% poll lead like 2008 soon. Seems bizarre that lurid allegations aboutbullying are worth +2 to Labour. 5 more years of Gordon. Do people really want that? The Tories have done nothing to slip this quickly in the polls in my opinion.
144 Rod. Thanks!
“You can’t airbrush this Dave: the incredible shrinking Tory lead”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7044186.ece
“Time For Change” must be about the worst slogan the Tories could have come up with, given our present situation.
The millions of people who are paying the lowest mortgage rate ever, don’t want change.
The millions of people on benefits fear change.
The millions of Public Sector workers will fear change.
And yet, all of these people know, deep down, that whoever takes over will have to take serious action, or the country will go to the wall.
“Time For Realism” might have been a better choice of slogan.
“Seems bizarre that lurid allegations about bullying are worth +2 to Labour.”
The voters don’t like being taken for idiots by an opposition with no coherent policies, reduced to playground name-calling…
Brown/Darling preferred on the economy to Cameron/Osborne by 28% to 27% - must be the first time in a while that’s happened?
146. Indeed. It could just be the persistent narrative. The media has been talking down the Conservatives pretty consistently but there is something still quite odd about the Yougov polls and their weightings and also it does seem convenient that this should have coincided perfectly with Cameron’s speech……
Mind you it won’t be so perfect if the polls don’t shift after the speech…..
Anazed 2/1 for NOM still avaialble on Betfair. Must be good for the trading opportunities it is likely to offer short term.
PEOPLE HATE THE TORIES, THAT IS WHY THE LEAD IS FALLING!!
It’s as simple as that.
148.
“He’s a charlatan,” said one MP. “The public have finally twigged.”
How could they not?
150 So they prefer a government with no policies to speak of at all?
The thing I find most curious is that nothing really major has happened in the last two weeks so why have the polls moved so far so quickly?
Just seems bizarre.
Per article this Sunday Times poll was done on Thursday and Friday so only 24 hours after the last YouGov Sun poll done Wednesday and Thursday (6% lead).
What could cause such a shift in 24 hours?
Obviously it could be a rogue but it strongly suggests the lead is no more than 6%.
Anyway with that I leave you with one final thought.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1EBw_da7BZk
Last one to leave turn the lights out….
Toodle pip!
152.jsfl, check out my post @135. I think that the data of the two polls should be compared. Labour are apparently only 3% higher in Scotland. Are they using the same weighting for both polls?
“The pollster has gone through massive system changes in recent weeks to prepare for this daily polling and I wonder whether some of the dramatic change might have something to do with that.
One factor, highlighted here by Flockers on Friday, is that the views of people with Labour ID’s are having to be scaled up by quite a degree in order to meet the “quota” for each poll. This is something that they have not had to do in the past on the same scale and you just wonder why that is happening now.”
Mike, why now and not back during the Conference season last Autumn? Seems incredible to do this at this late stage?
150.“Seems bizarre that lurid allegations about bullying are worth +2 to Labour.”
Depends on whether people believe the line that the whole thing was an attempted Tory smear job.
152 Yeah i think there’s something dodgy about the polls as well but i know ppl who were/are very anti-McDoom but who are wavering because of the cuts = more recession line they’re being fed.
“David Cameron is expected to declare that it is his “patriotic duty” to oust Gordon Brown when he speaks at the Conservative’s spring conference.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8541344.stm
hmmm….not sure that’s the right tone.
“Change” is just nonsense to the electorate, unless it’s coupled with a feeling of hope as well and some explanation of what the “Change” would entail.
The message the Tories are giving is a message of doom and gloom, not hope, and the “Change” involves taking a gigantic axe to their public services.
People know there has to be cut, but they’d rather the cuts be made with a scalpel, not an axe.
150: I’d agree with you if the Tories had invented the bullying allegations, but they didn’t. But your argument is the wrong way around. I’ve heard lots of smears and name-calling from Labour but have, literally, no knowledge of any policies coming from them.
The current polling, to me, would seem consistant with some sort of major Tory sleaze story etc. I don’t see bullygate as very damaging as there is a palpable anti-PC mood in the UK at the mo. But I don’t see it as gaining Labour this much love.
123 Young Tory
I agree, but I’m going to help out just in case!
I’ve just written cheques to the Conservative associations in the two marginal seats closest to me, and I’ll be out leafleting for the local Tories next weekend. Yikes.
156. What has happened is the public have started to actually contemplate voting for the empty suits leading the Tories, rather than simply telling polsters “moan, groan, I’m voting for the other lot…”
And they are now terrified by the prospect…
Well, Enoch Powell did say in 1997 that the people had voted to “Dismantle the United Kingdom”.
Who’d have thought he’d be right again?
156 Mike L
The movement is within the margin of error for YouGov’s recent polls.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention/yougov
162. “I’d agree with you if the Tories had invented the bullying allegations, but they didn’t.”
Their fingerprints were all over them, guilty or not…
Mike L @156: “What could cause such a shift in 24 hours?”
Cameron Epiphany? Tee-hee.
But nah, much more likely to be sampling error, possibly with a continuation of the trend we’ve been seeing for the lead to shrink as the election approaches. Maybe not even a rogue, as the Lab and Con changes are both within the margin of error of the last poll, which may in turn have been within the margin of error of the actual result in the opposite direction.
And that assumes this poll checks out. Have YouGov announced this yet, or is it possible that the News of the World wrote their story on the back of a rumour (the story says “it is believed that…”), then The Times wrote their piece based on the News of the World one, but left out the caveats?
168. I don’t know if you’re joking, Edmund, but if not, the Times have the full dataset on their website!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00690/YouGov_survey_resul_690818a.pdf
These YouGov daily polls smell as bad as Gordon Brown, the Great Clunking Turd himself.
167- Not really though mate, I have to disagree: unless you always think a bad government story has to come from the opposition’s spin operation. In any case, doesn’t your model show that Cameron could be perfect and the Tories would still not get a majority? If so, the poll movements don’t need any explanation…
166. “The movement is within the margin of error for YouGov’s recent polls.”
Just like every other movement in the Tory freefall has been within the MOE…
A month ago I called some people here “Boiling Frogs.”
I was not joking…
I think this poll is an outlier.
The closing in the gap between Cameron and Browns rating predicted a declining lead of
17% Oct
14% Nov
11.5% Dec
9% Jan
6.5% Feb
4% March
so the Tories should not be too downhearted.
There is one thing that has happened this wee which may have speede up events though.
The authenticity of Alistair Darling may have allowed Labour to push through the ceiling we previously thought Brown could not breakthrough.
It does, however,seem that Cameron may be Kinnock on skates.
O
RodCrosby at 164 “And they are now terrified by the prospect…”
I can’t think of any possible outcome to this particular General Election which doesn’t terrify me.
Yes, the polling booth is going to be a very scary place for me this time.
Passing thought - have the Sun backed the loser for the first time since 1970? They’ll be a bit bruised if so - maybe it’s the Sun wot’s losing it for Cammo.
173.I see you do not mention Mike’s point in his article - “The pollster has gone through massive system changes in recent weeks to prepare for this daily polling and I wonder whether some of the dramatic change might have something to do with that.”
169, oops - thanks, James. I’d missed that.
I’m sorry but I think it’s all p1ss and wind, the polls. There’s no way in hell that with Labour’s disastrous week they somehow have closed the gap to within 2%. Dave will be PM by the time my car needs an oil change. (6000 miles from now, if you’re wondering.)
173 Tim
On the ‘do you think Brown/Cameron is doing a good job’ question
This YouGov poll has Brown on -21, and Cameron on +12. A gap of 33.
‘Do you think Brown/Cameron has the kind of character needed to be an effective PM’
This YouGov poll has Brown on -32, and Cameron on +1. A gap of 33.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00690/YouGov_survey_resul_690818a.pdf
Its beyond the absurd as a news week. Is the Spinning of the BBC really enough to keep afloat this leaky tub of a government? Why does everyone suddenly want a hung Parliament? Its as if we are returning to the 17th century, with a desperate need for Unity as we can no longer accept competition. That just means nothing will happen and this country will sink into the morass of inaction. They will find some way to knobble Cameron tomorrow, call an election some dirty tricks in the conference hall, some such nonsense. However I think on the door steps ofthearginals the change is still big enough. If only Farage could just say f*** it We need a Government thats not labour more than we need to wasteour protest votes on hating Europe…
At this rate, my underdog-affinity will be switching polarity soon.
Perhaps Mike is up for an article showing how a 2% Tory lead could, given certain reasonable statistical assumptions, translate into a Tory overall majority of - oh at least 60 seats…
178. What were Brown’s +ve figures?
180 Rod Crosby
I can see that the May 7 thread on PB.com is going to be full of juicy quotes.
RodCrosby @180, what I’m waiting for is for a certain kind of Tory poster to start saying the polls must be overstating Labour and understating the Tories, because they exceed the typical swing back to the government from their average performance in by-elections…
“Is the Spinning of the BBC really enough to keep afloat this leaky tub of a government?”
Pravda only needs to shore up the Labour vote by 5-6% and i’d say that’s pretty much what it does.
The other half of the gap closing has been the Cameroons slowly draining enthusiasm from the right. I’d say the high point was around 45% at the time of Crewe and since then it’s shrunk down to the high 30s but given the economic situation i’d say they could get that back by constantly reminding people of the deficit and trying *really, really, really* hard to avoid saying anything PC until after the election.
Alternatively they could be trying to provoke a gilt-strike before the election which is what i’d be doing in their shoes.
183. Mmmm…
I said last night that a Tory lead anywhere between 0-4% would totally validate swingback.
We are now at 2%.
Gordon, if you’re listening. It ain’t going to get any better than this, mate.
Seriously, push the button tomorrow… [please!]
This is the second time in this series of daily YouGov polls when a set of headline figures has leaked only to be overtaken by a contradicting set of ‘official’ figures.
The first time it happened the sources for the ‘wrong’ figures included the Chairman of the Conservative Party and the Editor of Conservative Home, an organisation which I understand has offices in the same building as YouGov. As was said at the time, these were known “reliable sources”.
Now we have a second time, not as dramatic, but where the figures came from a source that all of us here know to be a reliable source. In both cases there was delay and confusion in the timing of the figures being released: particularly relevant as after the first incident a fixed time and method of release was agreed.
The ‘official’ figures, when finally released and confirmed, have on both occasions shown substantial variations from those generally expected. They are “shock results” showing “dramatic change” which have given rise to a prominent stories in the commissioning publications and widespread commentary throughout the MSM, Twitter and the blogosphere.
During the course of the YouGov series of polls, some of the more numerate among us have studied the underlying datasets and raised pertinent questions concerning the methodology used to produce the headline figures. Many of these questions remain unanswered although a session is planned for Tuesday when Peter Kellner, the President of YouGov will be available on pb.com to provide answers.
Whatever the results of the session it is relevant to point out, as Mike Smithson has already done in his leader, that YouGov “has gone through massive system changes in recent weeks to prepare for this daily polling”. Mike, along with other knowledgeable PB commentators, has rightly speculated that “some of the dramatic change” may be attributable to these system changes.
But it is not just questions about polling methodology that lead us to question whether the YouGov figures are accurate. Common sense and personal experience are the main drivers of the incredulous reaction.
Is it really conceivable that a pattern of 40-30-20-10 in the polls that has broadly held over the best part of a year, can evaporate in less than a couple of weeks of pre-election campaigning?
At a time when the Prime Minister has been credibly and widely exposed by his own people as a mendacious bully and incompetent manager? When the economy of the country is in its worst state since World War II? When a third term government is so tired and divided that its main opposition comes from within its own ranks? When Parliament and politicians have been so discredited by the “each according to their greed” expenses scandal? Where three Labour MPs have been charged by the Police for fraud and more than ninety others have decided to “retire” from their seats rather than face the wrath of their electorate?
Rod Crosby will tell us that it all to do with the average swings recorded in post 2005 by-elections. tim will argue that it is due to Cameron’s red face, marriage tax wobble and airbrush malfunction.
But we sensible chaps and chapesses travelling on the Clapham bendybus know this not to be the case at all. Do those out canvassing hear this “dramatic change” on the doorstep? Do those us who pore over Thursday evening council by-election results note a spectacular revival of Labour’s fortunes? Above all, do those of use who talk to friends and work colleagues sense a seachange in sentiment? No, and the evidence is here on pb.com and out in the real world every minute of every day. A small tightening, yes; some last minute nerves, perhaps; but a complete reversal of trend: no way, José!
A man from Mars landing in England yesterday and watching the speeches from Brighton and Cardiff, would, without any knowledge of the English language or our country’s customs, have concluded immediately and without doubt which of the two competing tribes were about to win the war.
And yet our political journalists, media commentators and professional pollsters are blind to this reality.
Why?
181 Rod Crosby
The only positive score I can see for Brown was “has a strong sense of right and wrong”, +17. Cameron got +23.
Go on Gordon. I’d rather we Tories lost the election telling the truth about the economy and then get to laugh at the s*** everyone gets covered in when you fail to fix the economy. That’ll teach the client state scum.
Five more years of Gordon and Labour will finally snuff it while the Tory Party will do what it always does and make a comeback like it did after 1830, 1906, 1945 and eventually, 1997.
187. They should have a “is Brown doing a good job as PM?” question…
if not, forget it
This poll has really f****d up my plans to beat insomnia tonight.
“Is it really conceivable that a pattern of 40-30-20-10 in the polls that has broadly held over the best part of a year…”
nonsense, and you know it…
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/hp/lead.png
In retrospect, the Tories have been on a downtrend since last August…
189 Rod Crosby
??????????????????
They did. Brown got -21, Cameron got +12.
(see post 178)
186. “No, and the evidence is here on pb.com and out in the real world every minute of every day.”
Absolutely nothing that happens here can count as evidence, Seth. As someone said to me the other week, for better or worse PB.com is now ConHome minus a few headbangers. As for the ‘real world’, I suspect there are quite a few real worlds out there, and they may well be sending conflicting signals.
Whatever the exact Conservative lead, I don’t think there’s much doubt it’s been cut significantly - even Angus Reid agrees on that.
190.Andy, what you need is a really good book, preferable written by Gordon Brown, it will soon sort out that insomnia.
Nite all.
186 and 188 have spoken more feelings far more eloquently than I ever could. Something twists in my stomach, just feels wrong about these numbers. I’ve been reading this site since only ‘08 when there has been relatively plain sailing for the conservatives. And this storm in this teacup maybe has really has had a vivid effect. But it stinks coming after a refigging and at a politicaly sensirive time. This phoney war is enough to drive me nuts because things aren’t making sense. The drive to assasinate the most electorally succesful Conservative leader since Major, maybe even with a swing that would outdo Thatcher would normally be something to be proud of. A leader in Government who is everything he claims to hate in the opposition, a proprietor of spin, cheap gimmicks, give aways, no policies, no positions and an economi novice! Its enough to drive me nuts. Whats wrong with the nation? Is the message just hidden?
185.
Agreed.
Gordon NEEDS to call an election on Monday if he wants to win, or atleast remain the largest party. For the good of the country, to protect all 60 million of us from the Tories, CALL IT TOMORROW (please).
192. Those are the net figures. (+ve - -ve)
I ask again. What were the +ve figures for Brown?
I’ll give you a clue. Assuming no don’t knows the answer would be 39.5%…
181 Rod Crosby
Has your graph been updated with the latest daily YouGov polls?
197 Rod Crosby
You really are a tedious prick.
I’m with the Labour/LD supporters on this. Let’s get on with it. Call an election on Monday, Gordon.
196. He Needs to call an election certainly…. Nice to see him voted at for a change rather than just throwing mud and tantrums from the bunker.
196. He Needs to call an election certainly…. Nice to see him voted at for a change rather than just throwing mud and tantrums from the bunker.
198. Not tonight’s. Until I get the sample size and exact field dates…
re 203. Rod - It’s all here -
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00690/YouGov_survey_resul_690818a.pdf
It shows that Cameron is maintaining his big approval rating position. Cameron 50-39 well-badly to Brown’s 36-58. DC plus 11: GB minus 22.
199. Not as tedious as someone who can’t answer a simple question.
I’ve looked it up myself, and the answer is…
37
An unassuming, unremarkable little number really…
But what it means, ladies and gentleman, is that Gordon Brown has won this election…
Goodnight.
187 “Why?”
Provoke panic-mistakes.
199 - Steady on, Dave B. Rod’s been predicting a hung Parliament for about 2 years and endured endless scorn on here. Now the polls are pointing to him very likely being right, he has every right to enjoy his moment of crowing!
200.
As long as he doesn’t wait till May, Labour’s in with a fighting chance, but still remains the underdog.
Final thought before I try and force sleep - just how do you kill a lady bird that buzzes around ?!? - looking at the data tables, Brown’s good rating as PM went down 1% and yet Labour went up 2%. Cameron’s bad rating increased 1% and the Tories went down 2%… The underlying questions remain pretty awful for Labour and yet and yet…
I’m sure someone will look at the weightings. Tories got reduced 42 and Labour increased 46. Before everyone just decides that’s the reason, are the other pollsters doing these shifts or not?
Now can I please sleep!
Final thought before I try and force sleep - just how do you kill a lady bird that buzzes around ?!? - looking at the data tables, Brown’s good rating as PM went down 1% and yet Labour went up 2%. Cameron’s bad rating increased 1% and the Tories went down 2%… The underlying questions remain pretty awful for Labour and yet and yet…
I’m sure someone will look at the weightings. Tories got reduced 42 and Labour increased 46. Before everyone just decides that’s the reason, are the other pollsters doing these shifts or not?
Now can I please sleep!
Just released a couple of comments from moderation - numbering out by 2 or so.
“Rod’s been predicting a hung Parliament for about 2 years…”
More like 4 actually, but hey, who’s counting?
206. Mike S: “It shows that Cameron is maintaining his big approval rating position. Cameron 50-39 well-badly to Brown’s 36-58. DC plus 11: GB minus 22.”
How do you reconcile this with the Voting Intention question?
I think the key question is this: If the above approval ratings hold after people have seen Brown and Cameron wall to wall on TV throughout a GE campaign would the Voting Intention really remain the same?
193 James Kelly
James, you are a very fine fellow, but you are constrained in your understanding of public opinion by your snowbound location.
The Clapham bendybus doesn’t run in North Lanarkshire. It may well be that the streets of Hamilton are full of doughty supporters of Gordon the Great, whom they see as a latter day William Wallace valiantly battling the slurs and barbs of outrageous Sassenachs.
But down here in the sunny south, and in all parts of this sceptr’d isle beyond the environs of Glasgow, our mind is strong and the resolve to evict committed.
pb.com is a distillery of the country’s vapours: the single malt produced is pure and blue as the sky. Drink and be merry.
214 Rod Crosby
but hey, who’s counting?
Certainly not YouGov.
I could be making the silliest post of the season.
I am fairly unmoved by this latest poll and the markets even more so. Like OGH I have bunged a few quid Labour’s way and also have Backed NOM for a small amount at 3.0. Like the man said, it looks too good to be true.
As far as I can see, nobody apart from OGH and goodself has been Backing Labour on any of the side-markets. My last punt on the Party Line was to get matched at 215.5 for a fiver. 215.5 is a long way from 326.0 !
Increasingly the polls are looking like a trailer for a soap opera. “Will Cameron make the speech of his life ?”
‘Course he will !
Just back from a girls night in, a group of 30 somethings plus two ladies in their 50’s. They hate Gordon Brown. The younger ones will be first time voters as they didn’t bother in the past, but now committed to vote, not Conservative in the main, Glasgow remember, but I tell you they hate him. SNP 2 votes, LIBdems 2 votes, anyone but Gordon 4 votes, dead cert Cons 1 vote (moi), 1 soft Tory might not vote 1 vote.
bullying came up, lying was mentioned, wrecked our future BIG discussion there.
Did I mention they hate him
Still, call it Gordon. If the electorate give you a mandate it will be interesting to see if the markets match the sentiment.
216. “pb.com is a distillery of the country’s vapours: the single malt produced is pure and blue as the sky. Drink and be merry.”
Sounds like you may already have done so, Seth! Put it this way - if a Martian had landed anywhere in much of the North of England, Scotland or Wales in the midst of the 1987 election campaign, he/she/it would have swiftly concluded that a glorious era of Kinnockism was about to commence. The hatred - literal hatred - of Thatcher would have been palpable. People in those areas had to rub their eyes with disbelief on a nightly basis upon seeing opinion polls showing the Tories coasting to a landslide victory. I suspect you’re experiencing the flip-side of that phenomenon right now.
There’s more than one Britain - and by that I don’t just mean Scotland and everywhere else.
URW - you’re not the only one. I’ve put a few quid on lab most seats which i’ll hold onto until the polls settle down. BF markets are very quiet though, the only movement seems to be on the election month.
218 - not silly URW, I was taken aback by the vitriol that was heaped on GB at my girls night in, usually I keep my gob shut on these occasions, it’s not the happiest of situations being a Tory on Glasgow.
None of them follow politics on the web, none of them read newspapers
not one of them had ever been polled, but these are real voters. Only one of them had heard of Clegg. I left a little confused to be honest.
218 URW
Increasingly the polls are looking like a trailer for a soap opera. “Will Cameron make the speech of his life ?”
‘Course he will !
YouGov have certainly left room for the response. The longer the fall, the higher the bounce.
Of course, we won’t know how high ’til Tuesday, when you March layers can collect your eggs. Unless someone known only to Tapestry and John Galt decides in an Easter Egg hunt.
It’s worth examining some of the regional changes in this poll compared with the last YouGov in Friday’s Sun. Bearing in mind that their fieldwork overlapped by one day (Feb 24-25 to Feb 25-26), I find the following changes quite remarkable:
London: In Friday’s poll, 47% Con, 29% Lab - Con lead 18%
In today’s poll, 29% Con, 39% Lab - Lab Lead 10%
This (totally implausible) change in the two-party differential of 28% (or a Con-Lab swing of 14%), even in the relatively small sample proportion (about 12%) that London represents, would account for 3.6% of the total 4% national change!
On the other hand:
Midlands: In Friday’s poll, 39% Con, 40% Lab - Lab lead 1%
In today’s poll, 43% Con, 32% Lab - Con Lead 11%
Which is a 12% change in the differential in the opposite direction (6% Lab-Con swing).
Now, whilst I appreciate that the regional subsamples are small, I cannot feel confident that YouGov’s sampling methods are particularly sound. If you accept that such wild swings over such a time frame are totally implausible (which they undoubtedly are) then it strongly suggests that these are not properly structured samples. No amount of post-hoc ‘adjustment’ can properly compensate for such inadequacies.
Given YouGov’s ability to collect very large samples (compared with the more traditional polling methodologies), I would have thought that they could, by now, have developed a more honest and reliable sampling approach, and done away with the “this is what we think they meant to say” mumbo-jumbo weightings.
Given the flux in the regional sub-samples, I suggest that the confidence interval (MOE) around the National figures is considerably higher than is usually assumed.
Just my 4p worth
Just 28% of people believe the prime minister is a bully and 50% agree he has a “strong sense of right and wrong”.
Wow. Like I posted on a previous thread the public seem to believe the lies and mistrust the truth. British people are doing George Orwell proud. Never underestimate the power of propaganda.
219.Last girls night in I had, we went by leaders instead of parties. All went for Cameron with last one vote for Salmond. I am afraid Brown and Clegg were flying the Norwegian flags that night.
Just looking at Tom Watson’s last twitter, and tim popping back on to disclaim this poll as an outlier @174, it appears this poll was a bit of surprise to them. Some might say that Cameron is under pressure to give the speech of his life tomorrow, I suspect that Brown will now be under pressure to call that election sooner rather than later. And if he doesn’t, well, the narrative might move the spotlight off Cameron and onto dithering Gordon instead. If I was Cameron, I would certainly ask for one to be called on Monday.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/matthewd_ancona/7332697/This-isnt-Labour-v-Tory-but-Gordon-v-Dave.html
…Officially, at least, the two main parties have arrived at the same analysis. In his campaign launch speech last weekend, the PM said that the coming contest was not a referendum on the past but “a big choice; a choice about who’s best for Britain’s future”. In an article in yesterday’s Times, George Osborne agreed, using slightly different language, that the election had to be more than “a referendum on the Labour Party” and must instead be “a choice between five more years of Gordon Brown, or change with David Cameron and the Conservatives”.
This, it has long seemed to me, is the clearest and most obvious route to victory for the Tories, but not one they have explicitly and unambiguously embraced until now. Whenever I give a presentation on politics, I use what I call my Kent Dorfman slide. There is a scene in National Lampoon’s Animal House, you may recall, when the Delta House pledge committee is considering its candidates: up comes the slide of Kent “Flounder” Dorfman’s pudgy features, and the entire room erupts in horror, objects are thrown, people scream. That is pretty much the effect that Gordon Brown’s picture now has on an audience…
Christina.. are you up? I sent you an email.
220 James Kelly
“… Drink and be merry.”
Sounds like you may already have done so, Seth!
I am as sober as a Scottish Justice Minister and as equally prone to error.
You are right about that 1987 Martian landing in the North. Thatcher’s medicine was bitter to taste even though it did produce a cure. Cameron’s medicine may be sweeter on the tongue but it will still be dispensed disproportionately in the colder regions.
It is certain that the next Conservative government will be more aware than Thatcher’s of the downside risks of economic restructuring. They will strive hard to compensate for the public sector jobs that will soon be lost (again) in the downsizing of the state. But will they - or any other government - succeed?
It will be this aspect of Cameron’s reign that will determine his future electoral and historical success. He is better placed than any alternative to succeed, but it remains a tough ask.
Armitage/Seth/Kristin. Thanks for your support.
One thing I have observed is that there is sometimes a time lag between a sensational poll being published and a reaction from the market. I prefer that to the other way round !
On Wednesday 24th Feb I Layed NOM at 2.82 and 2.74, both for decent three figure sums. Later the market reversed to 3.2-3.3. A lot has happened since then and NOM looks a better proposition now than it did on Wednesday. I am surprised therefore that you can Back a Hung Parliament at 3.0.
228.Kristin, got your email and replied. Will catch up for a blether later.
Just to round off the point that I was making in 224, this may illustrate the impact of dodgy sampling:
If, hypothetically (’just a bit of fun’ (c) P Snow), you were to replace the London subsample in this poll with the London subsample from Friday’s Poll…
Tories would still be ahead by 6%.
If, however, you just replaced the Midlands subsample in the same way…
Labour would be just in the lead (< 1%)
That is the potential effect that local missampling can have on a national opinion poll!
I am now firmly of the view that daily polls are unreliable. I would suggest that YouGov may do better to use moving averages, although this still wouldn’t adequately compensate for poor sampling.
BrianB, that kind of change for a subsample comprising less than 200 people (some of whom are don’t knows / won’t says) isn’t particularly surprising. And if you’re looking through all the subsamples trying to find the biggest WTF, you’re bound to run into some without anything wierd going on.
YouGov aren’t claiming to weight politically by region, are they? In that case there’s no reason to expect that the subsamples will be representative. It would be suspicious if the didn’t bounce around.
Of course you’re right that the daily polls are unreliable, to the extent that they are prone to sampling error, so each party’s scores can be off by up to 3% or so just by chance, and even more in 5% of cases. So you’d want to aggregate them to interpret them meaningfully, and a moving average is one way to do that. But that’s nothing to do with the subsamples, and it doesn’t show that YouGov are doing anything wrong.
Ahem! of course this should’nt be happening. I’ve read it on this site zillions of times, there’ll be no narrowing of the polls before the GE. Obviously there’s something wrong somewhere.
Perhaps Dave should make a point of shoving his way on to the lectern and then drag Alan Duncan onto the stage and give him a good kicking, that should improve his ratings.
I remember when Kinnock was supposed to be a ’shoe-in’…and look what happened to him…”O Yea.”
Lets just see what the election brings.
Note to Labour:
If it’s fixing itself don’t break it.
234. You can’t fake command of the FORCES OF HELL.
See, before everybody knew that Brown liked to lash out, he seemed crazy in a lame way, but now he seems crazy in a violent way, which is better. Mostly because he might snap and kill a man in public. Is Cameron going to do that? I don’t think so!
Darling helped him by making it sound like Brown’s wicked deeds (which were actually really boring stuff like having journalists write vaguely threatening articles about Darling maybe losing his job) were some sort of heavy thing, like Darling was just hanging out with Brown and then Brown and his black metal friends jumped him and tried to RIP DARLING’S TONGUE OUT and sacrifice it to SATHANAS. It made Brown sound a lot more interesting than he probably really is.
234 - Is that in keeping with the conduct of James Gordon Brown, the physically and fiscally dangerous halfwit currently masquerading as Prime Minister of the UK, coldstone?
After all, it has now been proven on the record that his behaviour is well below that one would expect of a decent person holding his position.
Are you suggesting that Cameron should lower himself to Brown’s level in order to compete for the votes of those who would be impressed by such thuggishness?
As it is, come tomorrow the UK will begin the process of relief and recovery that will come with Brown finding the courage to take advantage of the current gust of favourable factors and head to the Palace to dissolve parliament for a March 25th election.
Then we’ll see just how much the country really wants to kick Brown and his supporting band of failures and incompetents out of office.
Go on, Gordon. This is as good as it gets for you. Muster yourself and go for March 25th. It’s your last hope.
If this poll is correct,why did another Labour bod jump yesterday?
The trolls were out in force last night.
The Sun has NOT decided to back the Tories..too early & too sudden.
I have never known support for a party,at this stage of the election cycle,fall so quickly and for no apparent reason,just in time for the conference?Labour’s reasons don’t count.
The media are pushing the ‘Tory wobble’ so things are in reality, better than on the surface & they have changed tactic,because the pushing of a ‘hung parliament’ has not worked.
Labour have fiddled the headlines for over a decade,why would they stop now?
233 Edmund, I did acknowledge that the subsamples are small, but, and it is a big but, what I pointed out was that the change in such a small subsample (ie London) is enough on its own to account for almost the whole change in the headline national figure (3.6% of the 4% change).
Think about it: what if all of the subsamples suffered from the same degree and direction of fluctuation at the same time, the potential switch in the headline figure would be massive - and by much more than the +/-3% at 1.96 x standard deviation. Yet this shouldn’t happen … should it?
I simply do not accept the argument that the subsamples needn’t be representative. For the standard error estimate to be valid, the sample must be assumed to be representative of the population in all relevant characteristics. Clearly, there are immense regional differences in political persuasion, so it is quite right to include representative regional proportions in the sampling frame. YouGov clearly do this to a degree, which is why they have regional subsamples at all - and these are representative in terms of overall size (hence London’s subsample is approx 12% of the total sample).
However, it isn’t sufficient just to have the ‘right’ number of people from each region in the sample. A truly representative, stratified sample would include a representative proportion for each region, then for each age group within that region, for each gender within that region/age group etc through all of the appropriate factors that drive the sampling structure. Sample design is a multi-dimensional process, not a series of single-dimensional ones.
It is clear (to me anyway) that YouGov’s sampling is not truly representative, otherwise the trends in the overall national total would be generally the same in the regional samples (give or take a bit), except where there is an obvious local trend occurring. But, unless there is any logical reason to believe that the London change is real (ie a 14% swing between 2 samples taken almost concurrently) then this just isn’t demonstrated by YouGov.
Of course, I do (and did) accept that this is a problem for all national opinion polling - which is why I highlighted that YouGov is in a position to collect large samples, and therefore ought to be in a position to design a sampling frame that is adequate to include all desired characteristics. Such a sample would inevitably be much larger than the typical 1,000 (up to 2,000 for YouGov).
The problem for YouGov is that the regional variations are highly exposed in their data tables, and it is easy to spot obvious sampling errors. It is thus easy to conclude that a movement of anything up to 10% in the national 2 party differental should come as little surprise to anyone, even if it were argued that it is (statistically) outside the 95% confidence range.
If we must have daily sampling, then I would like to see YouGov do a (say) 7-day moving average with all of their subsamples. Not only would this provide more stability, it would also offer a much more realistic illustration of true trends in the voting intentions.
It would be a bit boring for the more excitable politicos, though!
(BTW For the avoidance of doubt, I’m not talking about weighting here, which is something of a ‘black art’ and terribly misused in statistics. I’m nore interested in initial sample selection)
Sorry, can’t debate any more, bed calls!
“Well, I could have gone to Stoke!”
28. Spot on. Folks: Labour in 2005 were down a few points because of Iraq. Blair was deeply unpopular. In fact they probably only won the election because someone came alongside Blair and was seen publicly to give him full support … Gordon Brown.
Cameron is damaged goods. I really find myself agreeing with SeanT a lot about the Tories at the moment. The stupidity of what Cameron did over Lisbon is gobsmacking. I mean, why enrage huge sections of your core support just months before an Election? It’s not then helped by ridiculous policies that smack at best of student politics. They look and feel like an Opposition party, not a party of Government.
Why would I vote Labour (which I might well)? Better the devil you know. Despite them arguably getting us into the mess I trust them more than the Tories to get us out of it. On that front I think they’re doing a pretty good job. Shoot me down in flames, but I suspect that a lot of people, faced with the prospect of Cameron’s clowns, think the same.
Wife (a Tory): they’ve never recovered from that Bullingdon picture.
I think there’s a great deal in that.
Even Labour people don’t really believe this poll.
They know how unpopular Brown is.
Having said that, Cameron will be under tremendous pressure to make a top-notch speech today (while privately mourning the first anniversary of something devastating).
There is a powerful media narrative right now - Tory wobble, it’s neck-and-neck - being driven by a desire for drama.
I wonder if Brown will capitalise on it and go now? He’d be mad not to.
Clearly a dreadful poll for the Tories and great news for Labour. On the other hand Labour have dominated the news for weeks now and the only press coverage the Tories have had has been extremely negative. That will change before the election, perhaps today with DC’s speech. The Lib Dems have also been out of the news for weeks, when they get increased coverage that will hurt Labour.
Labour clearly haven’t been damaged by all these bullying allegations.
241/242 - Great astro-turfing. I hope they’re paying you well to spout such drivel at 7.30 on a Sunday morning.
This is an astonishing poll for Brown/Labour. A few thoughts:
Nick Palmer may have had good reason to advise us that a March election is out of the question. But that was before this extraordinary change in the polls.
Until a few days ago I was very GREEN on May and very RED on all other months. I’m now nicely GREEN on May and neutral otherwise.
As I said the other day, this feels very like the time around “the election that never was”. The momentum is all with Labour. Cameron is seriously on the back foot and is required to make another “speech of his life”. Let’s see how he does. If he has the qualities many of us think he has to be PM, he will step up to the plate.
Off to Wembley today. I dreamt last night Man Utd were winning 2-1 at half time and then woke up to this poll.
Ouch!
Aside from the dodgy weighting which leaves me baffled - Lets be honest do the Tories really want to be the ones dishing out the medicine required to close the deficit. Which ever ends up in office will have to be drastic to avoid the fate of Greece for this country. As the Chinese say we live in interesting times.
BrianB @239:
“what if all of the subsamples suffered from the same degree and direction of fluctuation at the same time, the potential switch in the headline figure would be massive - and by much more than the +/-3% at 1.96 x standard deviation. Yet this shouldn’t happen … should it?”
The probability of all the subsamples suffering from the same degree and direction of fluctuation at the same time is much less than 95% (1.96 x standard deviation). It would happen occasionally if you polled enough, and those cases would fall within the remaining 5% (”rogue polls”) which were more than 3% out due to sampling error.
whilst most of us who follow these things feel that there is an error with the method or sample and that the the Tories will probably come out on top, I am worried that with sky and BBC leading with this as a disaster for the Tories those who only get their news from these sources will think that labour must be doing something right and so follow the supposed herd and this poll becomes self fulfilling.
245. You know, it’s that kind of attitude from a Tory on here which shows why you not only may lose, but will deserve to lose. Your arrogance is breathtaking. I’m a regular on pb, and not a member of any political party nor in touch with any.
But if you can’t wake up and smell the coffee don’t come weeping on here the day after the GE when the Tories fail to win the Election that they should have stormed.
Sorry, my 248 should have said, “The probability of all the subsamples suffering from the same degree and direction of fluctuation at the same time is much less than 5%“, not “less than 95%“.
Ironically, Cameron will probably have slept more soundly than Brown last night.
While Brown wll obviously be pleased by the latest poll, it gives him one hell of a dilemma. If he sticks with May 6th, then he runs the serious risk of missing out on his best opportunity to win since the elction he bottled.
I still think the election result hangs more on the date than the polls. If he goes early then Brown could conceivably hhang on to power in a hung Parliament.
I don’t see any way he can win any sort of victory if he goes for May 6th. Economics has always been the issue upon which the next election will be decided and with the expected negative Q1 figures coming out at the end of April, I don’t see any other outcome for a Lay 6th election other than a confortable Tory victory. The latest Brown recovery started on the announcement of coming out of recession and he will suffer accordingly from a negative Q1 figure announced a week or two before an election.
Indeed, if he does not go early, then it might be wiser to go the full distance and wait until June. At least it buys him some more time in which to spin negative Q1 figures as being down to the bad winter.
These daily tracker polls are a joke. The Sun and the NOTW - expecting big Tory leads - probably commisioned them thinking they would shape a narrative of Cameron’s triumphant progress to No 10. I have to admit that I do get some joy from imagining how James Murdoch reacts to his papers consistently reporting a narrowing of the lead as he is forced to contemplate he may have made one hell of a huge mistake in backing the Tories so aggressively, but in the end that is but a passing pleasure.
Much more important is that these polls are coming too frequently and they are distorting proper political debate. If YouGov is making sampling mistakes, they could in the end affect the election result as parties are forced to take positions and make arguments based on what YouGov is reporting. That cannot be right.
However, let’s not forget the polls are being commissioned by a Tory-supporting newspaper which would have looked at YouGov’s methodology and presumably bought into it. This is not a Labour plot, a BBC plot or any other kind of plot, it is the Sun and the NOTW seeking to set the agenda and probably bitterly regretting it now. I wonder if they will switch pollsters in order to get more palatabel results. Could AR be about to get their first big gig?
I do think there is something wrong with what YouGov is doing as I just cannot see that the Tory lead is really that narrow. And, of course, a national poll tells us very little about the marginals. That said, I do also - for the first time - detect an upswing in confidence among Labour supporters I know. People are now beginning to defend Labour in arguments in a way that I have not heard for a long time. I do believe that RodCrosby is right in that the Iraq War was a big distorting influence on the 2005 percentages. Also, left of centre people hated Blair to the exent they would not vote for him. I am not certain that that applies to Brown so much, even if he is not liked. To be honest, I wonder if I would be boycotting Brown’s Labour later this year if I was in anything other than a rock solid Tory seat.
I think that generally Tories would do well to remember just how much they were hated only a few short years ago. My sense is that a lot of that dislike is still there and it will come more to the fore as people contemplate the Tories actually getting bck into power. Labour knows this and is playing it for all it is worth. More than anything, British politics is about whether you are a Tory or not. And maybe a few more people are now realising that they are not. It won’t affect the outcome of the election, but it may make it closer than I previously thought it would be.
251, Sorry for typo’s Lay 6th = May 6th (obviously)
241.Most of the electorate will never have heard of the Lisbon Treaty, to blame that dreadfull climbdown for the fortunes of the party is just wrong. The reasons the polls are closing are
1) Media built Cameron up, now will try & knock him down. Come the election The Times, The Express, The Daily Mail, The Sun will all heavily back Cameron…we might even get an FT endorsement & the Daily Star Page 3 girl will be backing Dave.
2) Pollsters all seem to be making much of the shamed Labour voter, who doesn’t want to say they are voting Labour. Talk about a bad time to change your methodology. I would be astonished if the public were really as volatile as the polls suggest.
3) It’s in the medias interest to have a tight contest, readers/viewers are more likely to be engaged in a genuine contest.
Also, broadcasting regulations mean that for every valid criticism of a failed governmment, one must be found for the government in waiting.
4) This month has been wall to wall Labour coverage, it seems there really is no such thing as bad publicity.
5) Tories need to up their game. Not only with policy but with better attacks on Labour policies.
In reality, in the country, the same seats and the same voters will decide this election. In my view most people have made up their mind about Brown, the only question is by how much of a margin will the tories win by - and that will be the new media narrative come polling day.
While it may be true that this may be as good as it gets and the best chance for GB is to call the election now, he won’t. He’ll believe that he’s on a roll and that if he holds off until May the polls will improve until victory is a nailed on certainty. March election? - forget it.
251 - People do not look at abstract figures.They make judgements based on their daily lives. A year ago, they were being told the world was about to come to an end. They look now and feel that it has not happened. The FTSE has not collapsed, unemployment is nowhere near 3 million, interest rates are low, houses have not been repossessed in their hundreds of thousands. Compared t the recessions of the early 80s and 90s, far fewer people have been directly affected. It culd just be that the government is getting some credit for that.
Of course, it may all change economically - a lot of experts think it will. But I doubt if it will happen before an election now. Osborne and Cameron may just reaping a little bit of what they sowed in 08/09. Labour can plausibly say that, as of now, they called it wrong.
Perfect timing by YouGov yet again! - didn’t this happen at the start of the Tory conference last year?
A perfect spoiler for all the other stuff on the front pages about Brown, you have to hand it to them - pure manipulation.
Even my 2 labour friends laughed at this poll.
The NOM train has finally left the station. LTP 2.96.Next stop 2.92 and points South.
*** Betting Post ***
Believers and professionals only. The 2-1 offer from Ladbrokes is very fair. If you are of the Crosby persuasion it looks like a gift and if you are a pro it looks like a ticket to a quick profit via Betfair.
I am not a believer but I did take the 2-1.
35% - What a great way to start the day.
Feels right to me. Labour have had “the mo” for some time.
For those comparing to 2005, you forget Labour and Blair were very far from popular then. Getting near to that result isn’t totally out of the question IMO.
The big question seems to be, is confidence in Cameron breaking up.
257. Absolutely. I thought the trackers were Tuesday to Friday for the Sun in the run up to the election and were only going to go daily once the starting gun had been fired.
How come the Sunday Times have got this one? Anyone know?
260 - The Sun and the News of the Word are both expicitly supporting the Tories. They commissioned YouGov.
Another Labour MP has quit, this time the MP for Blackpool North:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2010/02/another-labour-mp-ducks-out-of-defending-a-top-tory-target.html
To all the Conservative souls
Who’re watching these narrowing polls
There’s no need for panic
So stop acting manic
Remember for whom the bell tolls
Gordon, please call the election tommorow! The country needs it. It’s your best chance to avoid humiliation. If you genuinely believe the polls are closing then they should continue to do so.
Myself I think that you will get a monumental kick up the arse, either by the Tories or by the bond markets and IMF. But please call it.
He won’t though, because he will bottle it again. He always does.
256. Agreed.. people will vote on how they see things affecting them. Which is why all those millions with all-time low mortgages, millions who are beneficiaries of the generous benefit system and millions of Public Sector workers will not go for the Tories “Change” slogan.
However, peple will also vote on how they see things affecting them in the short term future.. which is why Brown received a boost as soon as the figures came out in January showing we were out of recession. And therefore, if a revival in Brown’s fortunes can be kick-started by figures showing us coming out of recession, it is reasonable to assume that it might go into reverse if figures come out showing we are sliding back into recession..
I don’t think it would make much sense for Brown to call an early election on the back of these polls.
To the extent that they’re down to “momentum” or a positive media narrative, there’s no reason to expect that to last until the election. The media like to build up somebody as a winner for a few weeks only to spend the next few weeks knocking them down. If Brown called an election for 3 weeks’ time, the media would spend at least 2 of those weeks giving him a kicking. If he could call the election for tomorrow it might be worth it, but he can’t.
More to the point, there’s a trend for the Tory lead to shrink. It’s been happening for at least 6 months. Labour will want to ride it as far as it will go. This is especially true for Brown, who presumably wants a majority, not a hung parliament.
It is being reported that Cameron will say it is your “Patriotic duty” to vote against Labour.
If that is true it will make the Sheffield Rally look well judged.
Off out , just wanted toi say that I am a poll denier. I do not believe these figs.
If this poll is correct THEN ALL THOSE CUTE FOXES will sleep a little bit better….giggle giggle.
267 The Tories are obsessed with Brown
267. Sounds more like a slogan the BNP would use. “It’s your patriotic duty to vote BNP!”
Is there anyway (for example) Labour supporters/helpers could be “swamping” the YouGov sample. Maybe by signing up as a Tory voter, but filling in the YouGov questions to favour the Labour position? Does YouGov have anyway of detecting this happening? Would this change the way YouGov are weighting the results?
Do some voters act as sheep, IE they vote for whoever seems to be the popular party at the time.
On the Doorstep around here (south west/west midlands), I’m finding the AR marginal poll to be quite close.
267. Yeah yeah Tim. Nice spin line peddled by your soul mates at the beeb. No doubt cooked up in Peter Mandelson’s den of lies.
Time to get your money out of the UK folks. How could anyone be so stupid as to hand Brown, Balls and a selection of junior yes men the keys to the economy? The only restraining forces presently (in a God almighty mess) are Darling and Mandelson. They won’t survive election night if Brown wins. We’ll look back on this small period of a few weeks for 50 years and wonder how the nation could have made such a mistake.
http://jontomes.typepad.com/blog/2010/02/when-the-wind-blowwith-the-cold-of-communist-siberia.html
Some Shakespeare for Gordon…..
There is a tide in the affairs of men.
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat,
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose our ventures.
Julius Caesar Act 4, scene 3, 218–224
The trend of all the polls is overall the Cons dropping and Labour rising over the past few weeks, with a drift to the left.
The Conservatives need to consult their members in Mid Devon who pulled off that tremendous and unexpected , nay brilliant win over the Lib Dems at Yeo Ward on Thursday. If they repeat that nationally they have nothing to worry about.
Two polls have the Cons at 37%, this is beginning to move onto the edge of dangerous territory for them.
However another day, another dollar, another day another poll, probably say Cons 10% ahead.
However if these YouGOv polls keep coming out like this the Sun will regret its decision for daily polls. Some of us might smile at that.
Also I am unclear whther the pollster reports on a rolling three day basis or these are straight figures for each day. If it is rolling then Labour would have been ahead in the latest poll!!!!
216. Seth. What a delightful post. You’re my early tip for poster of the year. We chose a writer two years ago who unfortunately had the style of David Frum. Wouldn’t it be appropriate under our new Miliband government to choose someone elegant.
They dont have anyone who performs well on camera.Pickles, May,Osbourne, they all come across as right-wing nutters.
Southam Observer @256: “I have to admit that I do get some joy from imagining how James Murdoch reacts to his papers consistently reporting a narrowing of the lead”
Seems to me the Murdoch team have been scoring a lot of own goals lately. (Bear with me if you think the first two are a bit fanciful.)
1) They got everyone used to the idea of a black president in their pro-torture propaganda series, 24, only for the Democrats to unexpectedly turn up with a talented black presidential candidate.
2) They undermined Hillary Clinton, who they thought would be the Democratic candidate, with their evil woman president in Prison Break, only to have their stereotype play into the hands of Obama, the only person who was a bigger threat to them than her.
3) They built up the Tea Party movement to harass the Democrats, but now the monster’s about to turn on its maker when the Tea Party starts running its own candidates, splitting the right-wing vote.
4) That thing with the taped apology in The Sun.
I’m thinking maybe James Murdoch isn’t as wily as his dad…
274 - Sorry, Polly, are you really saying David Cameron won’t use the phrase? It does seem a slightly odd one but I have no doubt the BBC have a copy of the speech from CCO.
now is the time to bet like men! just keep backing a Tory majority.it is a better policy than QE.
276 — “there are straight figures for each day”.
268 tim, not content with fabricating figures, are you inventing quotes now? Naughty, naughty.
Has the Tesco tear jerker about Gordon’s mum been published yet, and if so will it have had an impact?
There was also the big Shortlist interview with Gordon last week, in which, I noticed, Gordon shamelessly nicked the clever attack line from one of the spoof posters and pretended it was a Mandelson witticism ‘airbrushed - I’m not even hairbrushed’.
272 If I was you I would be a little less sure. People are generally polite on the doorstep to whatever rosette confronts them. If your not seeing huge leads in your canvas returns it probably closer than the already big AR lead.
You are certainly right though that some people go with the prevailing wind. Has that wind changed a little?
The attacks on Brown have certainly been overdone of late. Bit of a backlash there.
kellner going to be on boulton sky news this morn to explain polls
281. SNP - Cameron has been widely reported to be doing a speech without notes - which means there is no script.
Looked at the working stuff at http://www.timesonline.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00690/YouGov_survey_resul_690818a.pdf but couldn’t see the usual bit at the end listing the number of supporters by party, newspaper, etc. Anyone seen that?
What’re the raw percentages? Once again Labour are bumped up heftily (40 or so) and the Tories down by the same amount.
256 - The problem with your econonmic thoughts there Southam is that “far fewer people have been directly affected” YET.
The effects are already in place. The massive debts will have to be paid for. The stimulus packages have been mis-directed so that several hundred billion pounds has been borrowed to increase GDP by 1.2% in Q4 2009 and yet still not bring the UK out of recession (remember there is a 0.5% reduction to come on the next revision come the end of March thanks to collapsing business investment).
Brown cannot bring himself to be honest about the need for cuts to a structural deficit that he built up himself.
House prices still have much further to fall. People are just about getting by on near-zero interest rates. What happens when they have to rise? Which they will. Inflation is above target. Overseas investors will demand higher interest rates to offset collapsing sterling (which is in itself inflation inducing in the UK due to import levels).
The problem is that Brown’s policies always come with the cost end loaded and the costs this time are just enormous.
Political betting’s got “tim”
Who always goes out on a limb
Attempting to smear
The Tories on here
But lucky for them he’s quite dim
Tortue suspect gets support from tory David Davis.
Torys dont want to keep DNA.hmmmmm
AND THE TORYS ARE 2 POINTS IN THE LEAD,they should be 10 points behind.
288 - Having no notes doesn’t mean there’s no script! The last film I watched didn’t obviously involve the use of notes.
Is this Daily Poll a full poll every day, or a tracker?
And is there not a serious chance of some sort of panel fatigue with there being so many of them, which could begin to skew the results over time?
Of course by definition 1 in 20 will be a rogue.
hmm,
looking at the raw numbers I’m really not sure about these yougov party weightings. The other (non headline figures) voter opinions etc. about bullying carry some weight - they look reasonably plausible. But over the last couple of weeks for 15% of labour supporters to have come back to the party from the tories just doesn’t make sense.
Can someone else can tell us what the unweighted figures for party support would be, I wouldn’t be surprised if it was 40 30 20 10 still ?
The only significant news has been bullygate - and from the sample a lot more people still believe Brown is a bully compared with Cameron (7 times as many IIRC)
Yougov have got to be really really careful about these numbers. If they are proven wrong it will be the end of them.
293. OK SNP - want a friendly bet? I wager this line, which has all the hallmarks of a clunking Labour spoiler, will not be uttered by David Cameron. Want to take me on?
295, you can bet your last pound that the media will give this more coverage than the 9pt Harris lead.
Isn’t Mr. Kellner doing a Q&A here at 2pm?
296 - Sure. Tenner?
YouGov polls have to be credible to have a decisive influence over Brown on whether to call an election tomorrow.
To Brown, “credible” will mean that YouGov’s voting intention figures are supported by the Labour party’s own private polling and canvassing returns. If there is a match we are likely to see Brown heading up the Mall tomorrow. It is the last day he can call a no-budget March election.
Those thinking that “things can only get better” for Brown and that the 2% gap will close and give way to a Labour lead may well have forgotten about the budget. Any election after March 25th hands the initiative back to Darling and opens up divisions in the cabinet and campaign team. Go soft and get hammered by the media and markets or go hard and get hammered by the polls and the people. A real problem for Brown.
If there isn’t a match between YouGov and private polling, then Brown has a real problem of a different nature.
We should cast our minds back to the event that caused his honeymoon poll advantage to be turned into a Cameron lead: the 2007 “bottled” election with empty ministerial cars circling in Parliament Square.
If Friday’s YouGov poll turns out to be an outlier, there is a reasonable chance that the 2% gap will be the shortest between now and the GE.
Just imagine Gordon waking up on Tuesday morning to find that Cameron’s ‘no-notes’ Spring Conference speech has restored Tory fortunes. Say the gap has now returned to the - still unlikely - level of 6%, what will be the headlines in The Sun?
Entries to pb.com by midday today. David Roe to adjudicate.
298 - To be clear we’re referring to the term “patriotic duty”.
290 Id..spot on!if the financial markets believed daily tracker polls the £stg will be below $US1.5000 by monday night.
293. Sir Norfolk: BTW my impression is Cameron takes the Mike Leigh approach to his extemporised speeches. He will have points he knows he wants to make but not a verbatim script.
This poll is particularly bad because it suggests that swing voters are not just unsure of the Tories, it suggests many are now looking to Labour. Soft Tory edges are one thing, swing voters suggesting they are now in the Labour camp is a potential game changer.
SNP We are referring to the line ‘it is your patriotic duty to vote Conservative (or Tory)’. Cameron might use the phrase patriotic duty in a completely different context, in which case it will not count. Want to take me on?
Something very very weird in those Yougov figures…..
according to them they have Labour ahead in London 39/29 total bull (what did they interview everyone in islington) and in Scotland they have Labour ahead 49/14. WTF.
No wonder those poll shows only 2% with bull like that.
303, if the poll’s right. We’ve seen a number of issues raised concern YouGov’s recent polls, and with the exception of the (I think) unweighted Mori nobody’s shown the lead closing this much.
We need other pollsters to confirm this as either an outlier or accurate.
You all laughed at me some weeks ago when I predicted a “Brown Bouce” to end all bounces
I now predict that some time this week the murky issue of Lord Ashcroft will again surface to cause David Cameron’c Conservatives problems
307, it’s not hard to have a bounce when a pollster takes 4 points from your principal rival and adds 4 points to your own tally.
288. Polly. “Cameron has been widely reported to be doing a speech without notes - which means there is no script”
Actors do it all the time. It doesn’t imply no script!
Over the last few days, we’ve seen an Angus Reid poll (including marginals) that indicated the Conservatives getting upwards of 400 seats…and there’s been a Harris poll with a solid Conservative lead (9%)…and an IPSOS-MORI poll that can credibly be said to show a Conservative lead of 10% when sampling issues are taken into account…and now YouGov show a lead of 2%.
In horse-racing terms, it’s a bit like being unable to say whether a horse can win the Derby…or is only good enough for a seller at Wolverhampton.
307.
and the murky issue of Sainsbury donations, unite donations and Lord Paul to counter the ashcroft issue…
A lot more of the tory money is due to a lot of small donations than labour. Even if you took all of ashcroft’s money away, the tories would still be getting 80% more money in than labour.
Sorry to say but my various focus groups do not accord with this poll.
149 Budgie excellent points.
“Time for realism” should have been Camerons Conservatives mantra.
Not the old tired time for change which a schoolboy could have wrote for the tories on the bag of a fag packet.
Bet the ad agency the conservatives paid are having a right laugh on their easy laid back work and advice they gave.
305 - YouGov called the London mayoral election almost spot on, didn’t it?
308. Roger I refer you to my point at 308. You are also some way behind the illustrious Sir Norfolk Passmore in making this point. And being a show bizzy kind of a guy you will know that a script for a film is not a blueprint. Contemporary actors nearly always use the script as a creative springboard and rework and develop the lines.
Even now, the Tories are still within the five percent (37%-42%) they have been recording with all the polling firms over the past two months.
What has really damaged them in terms of their greatly diminished lead is the 3% decline in the support for the LibDems and a similar decline in support for “Others”.
Polly, the phrase that is being reported is “It is an election we have a patriotic duty to win” so surely that should define the terms of the bet?
306. A couple of months back I bought into Labour, for the first time as a positive bet (the one exception being during the election that never was) after having a regular pattern of buying Tory at the election for some 4-5 years both as a general win bet and on the seat markets.
As small as that Labour bet was, it started to become clear to me that the Tories simply weren’t being strong enough and were not killing Labour off as they should have. With one small Labour bet my liabilities if the Tories lost were massively cut at a stroke. or someone who politically wants Labour out on their ear something was clearly amiss out there.
The Tories have it their hands to change their position by showing some strength.
People need to stop doubting polls and start fighting.
Did this poll ask “who would you want as your next PM”?
I think this question will find how people will vote.
314, last year, according to Mr. Flockers’ recent article, YouGov were adjusting the Tories down by 1-2 points. Now it’s much larger, and Labour gets a large increase. Mr. Caveman has suggested the Labour Disloyal category (one reason why I was wondering at 289 where that data was) creates an artifical floor in Labour support. Mr. Smithson has said there is a debate to be had about YouGov’s new methodology.
The polls now are something like 2, 5, 8, 9, 12. Probably forgotten one, but that’s the spread. This may be true, though I hope not, but there are real issues raised about YouGov’s methodology. Was the Labour Disloyal category used for this poll?
If you accept that Angus Reid are the most accurate pollster and accept therefore that they were right to show a four point drop in the lead from this time last month when they had it at 40-24 and their last poll when they had it at 38-26, then it is fair to assume there has been a 4 point drop in the lead iwht the other polling Compamies.
YouGov had the lead at 7 points on 29-29th January, so a four point drop with take that down to 3 points, which is in line with lead of 2 points showing in last night’s poll.
MORI had a poll taken 26-28th January, which showed a lead of 8 points, so an AR-style 4 point drop would take that to 4 points, which again is in line with their last poll showing a 5 point lead.
ICN did a poll on 22-24th January which showed a lead of 11 points, an AR-style drop of 4 points would take that down to 7 points whiuch is exactly what their last poll stated.
So.. YouGov, ICM and MORI are merely reflecting the drop in support that Angus Ried also found over the past month or so.
It doesn’t make those three right and AR wrong, but the point I am making is that the drop in lead is not likely to be down to recent changes in YouGov methodology. They are simply recording the same points fall as AR over the past month.
In message 299., what does “Entries to pb.com by midday today. David Roe to adjudicate.” refer to? Entries to what???
317. This was Tim’s description of the line:
It is being reported that Cameron will say it is your “Patriotic duty” to vote against Labour.
As I was taking issue with Tim I think it fair that we take this line for the bet. If other reports are coming up with other lines it only shows that the source is questionable.
313. Thanks.
Actually, having slept on it last night, I think “Time For Realism” is a bit staid. Perhaps “Let’s Get Real” would be snappier and a slight improvement.
246. Political Betting Dictionary
Astroturfer (n)
One who declines to support the Conservative Party.
323 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8541344.stm
“tim” usually describes from a skewed angle
I don’t think a “tough” budget has to be bad news for Labour. If they can pitch it right, and leave out all the gimmicks, then it could work in their favour if it creates a credible image that they are preparing to take tough measures post election.
The Conservatives will not want to be in a position where their electoral stance is that Labour will make you cry, but we will force your eyes to water.
At the moment the impression that Labour aren’t serious about tackling the problems with the public finances - thus people are prepared to accept that pain is necessary and only the Tories will deliver it.
The moment Labour begins to promise some pain (and actually advertise it, not hide it in Budget book figures), the debate will shift to which version of pain on offer is most palatable. Which gives Labour a chance.
315. Roger: Sorry 308 should have been 302.
310 Quite right John - but are you sure you can “Sea The Stars”?
The problem with the You Gov dailytracker- right or wrong- is that its frequency means it dominates the media narrative.
This is particularly unhelpful to the Lib dems.You Gov tends to understate there position by beween 1 or 2 points compared to most of the other pollsters.
304 Re Cameron “Patriotic duty” to beat Labour.Who does he think he is the Qeeen?.Does he want us to call him Queen David?
the bet should be on :
“we have a patriotic duty to win” and its variants.
327. Any budget will be bad for Labour.. it gives the Tories something to attack.
305. London is demographically very much a Labour town.
Stop attacking Brown and give the public solid reasons for voting Tory. Get the attention off Brown. If you attack him the that means the spotlight is on him. Get the public to vote Tory because they want a Tory Government and not because they don’t like Gordon Brown.
Greg Dyke on Marr pointing out that the poll lead in the first print editions of the Sunday Times was 6%, but was revised down to 2% in the next edition two hours later.
I seem to remember that a You Gov Scottish poll was going to appear in a Scottish paper today.Any news?
332, depends how the media react. They’ve been reasonable towards the last PBR and Budget, but have been licking Brown’s balls for months now.
332 - The Tories always do a lot better when they can leave others to do the attacking. The Tories problem is a lack of idea about what they will do themselves. That’s why inheritance tax was so good for them - a clear policy which had no obvious losers and struck a cord with a key part of the electorate.
Call an election Gord! Go to the palace tomorrow and have the election on 25 March. The budget and Q1 numbers will revive the Conservatives lead, so they’ll never be a better chance.
As OGH says YouGov crowding out all other posters. YouGov is the only pollster to show a statistically significant improvement in the Labour number since the beginning of December. This could of course be simply because YouGov are ahead of the game.
No early election would point to Labour internal polling diverging from YouGov. I doubt Brown would be foolish enough to watch a good position turn bad again due to inaction.
tim’s spinning *again* at 268. According to the latest BBC Radio 4 bulletin, Cameron will say it was ‘his patriotic duty…’.
323. Thanks jj. Tim has clearly made his usual tactical edit. I was betting on the basis of Tim’s rather creative interpretation of the BBC report rather than the BBC copy.
YouGov Tracker Polls.
Tracker polls can develop a momentum of their own, especially when rounding of whole numbers occurs. Can YouGov be persuaded to give the actual numbers like Mori and ARS do - and so eliminate the compounding of rounding errors?
I have a spreadsheet of the last 8 days of these trackers which shows some variations that are really not credible.
In London the Conservative lead varies from +19 to -10.
In the Midlands (+Wales) the Conservaive lead from +14 to 0.
So, does YouGov have a problem in polling areas with a higher than average ethnic/immigrant population?
[i]Amazed 2/1 for NOM still avaialble on Betfair. Must be good for the trading opportunities it is likely to offer short term.
by budgie February 28th, 2010 at 3:19 am [/i]
Hope some early birds on here took advantage of this particular worm.
Best price on Betfair is now 2.66 (13/8)
335, …. that’s odd. Do we know anything that would account for that?
It’s especially strange given the weird ‘reliable source’ a few days ago proving to be quite unreliable.
ON Andrew Marr they’ve just pointed out the Sunday Times early edition had a different lead to the later edition for the Tories
Good poll for the red team. Enjoy it whilst it lasts.
The press haven’t had the chance for a ‘Tory re-launch / fightback’ narrative for yonks, and that is what I expect to now happen starting this week.
Polly@ 342 —
Isn’t the same as “we have a patriotic duty to beat [Brown or Labour]” ?
341. EdP: Well that does put a completely different complexion on the matter. SNP - if you are still reading it looks like Tim has been exposed as a spinner and unless you want to believe him there is no bet.
Polly –
isn’t “we have a patriotic duty to win” the same as “we have a patriotic duty to beat [Brown or Labour]” ?
“Today’s poll suggests recent claims about Brown’s tantrums and his intimidation of staff may have actually helped him. Just 28% of people believe the prime minister is a bully and 50% agree he has a “strong sense of right and wrong”.
The survey disclosed growing concerns about Cameron’s elite background and lack of empathy with ordinary families. Just 25% think that Cameron understands problems faced by “people like me”, compared with 35% for Brown.
Furthermore, only 28% think the Conservative leader wants to do the best for “all groups in Britain”, against 39% for the prime minister.”
Cammo said: “I’m doubling up on change.”
You change if you want, perhaps this country is not for changing…
No problem Polly! Perhaps I can take this opportunity to refer everyone to my seemingly under-appreciated contribution at 291
343 - Are they trackers or full polls?
One must also consider whether different results will be got on different days of the week. Most pollsters poll over a period of days to try and get a large enough sample across all demographic groups. The danger with “quickie” polls is that very important demographic groups can generate huge swings through being represented in the poll by a very small number of people.
318 Yokel
People need to stop doubting polls and start fighting.
Tories can stand up and chew gum at the same time.
Explain to me how the voting intention in London went from 47/29 on Thursday night to 29/39 the next day, thats a huge swing in 1 day of fieldwork, i don’t believe that for a second.
You trying to tell me the Tories lost 18 points in 2 days in London, unlikely….
Also Labour went up 6 points in the south…from 47/20 to 49/26
342. PM - I was reacting to Tim’s spin on the line. It was on the basis of his spun report that I was willing to bet. Since then there has been a great deal of backtracking.
Seriously deluded Tory smug posters need to realise that MOST. PEOPLE. HATE. DAVID. CAMERON. My, bless her, knows little about politics and doesn’t have any sort of allegiance to a party but constantly tells me “Labour will get back in you know. People aren’t stupid enough to let that Cameron t*** in.”
I’d like to think her bluntness has a certain resonance with most people in society. People on here seem to forget that the average voter doesn’t follow every politically related news story and follow the polls religiously.
Oh and my theory is still that traditional Labour voters who ditched Blair in 2005 will be coming back, as in my opinion Brown is nowhere near as catastrophic as old Tony was.
But don’t worry Tories, if the debates go ahead (and are fair), Cameron will have the chance to seize power and show his true self and his policies. If he can’t convince anyone at the debates then you lot have no reason to keep ploughing the “fact” that a Tory government would somehow be the answer to all of Labour’s failings and that the NHS would certainly be this beautifully functioning public service and that climate change will go on vacation until the next left wing government.
financier — this is not a tracking poll. but a full, complete, singular poll.
355 - Tories all gone off for a long weekend in the country?
351 - Wasn’t there a poll last week saying that 70% thought Brown was a bully?
332 True but it also gives them something to defend.
A sad Conservatives leaflet came through my fathers door.
Conservatives would not cut
Your Bus pass for over 60s
Your Fuel allowance for over 60s.
Tv licence over 75
And so on.
He is a wealthy man and does not need the above.
But as a Conservative he believes neither party is getting real and the Tories are loosing the reason to vote for them realism.
352. jj - I read your limerick to Mr Polly and we both enjoyed it.
I cannot believe this poll. You must as well as I talk to people each day regarding their feelings on the state of the country and who might be to blame. Consistly they blame the labour party for the problems and state they would not vote for them and then we see this poll. Again I am confused.
322 JohnLoony
Can you remember the Private Eye spoof Sun front pages during the Falklands War?
“Kill an Argie and win a Metro. See p.9″
“Entries to pb.com by midday today. David Roe to adjudicate.” was a competition to guess The Sun headline on Tuesday morning given the scenario outlined in my post. The ‘competition’ however is as real and significant as the Private Eye spoof.
re 336 Have figures for You Gov poll for Scotland on Sunday.
Lab 38%,SNP21%,CON 20%,LD 15%.
Changes since 2005 GE are Lab -1.5%,SNP +3%,Con +4%,Lib -6.5%.
Suspect Lib Dem figure suffers from the usual You Gov underecording of LD support compared to other polling companies But at least itsnota sub sample!
Havent run the numbers yet but I suspect it means only a handful of seat changes
Also Poll found that David Cameron has the most negative image of all the major party leaders.
I have just been watching Greg Dyke on the Marr show - he pointed out that in the earlier editions of the Times it had a leader with Cameron talking about a fight back and the poll results were 39 - 33 and within the space of a couple of hours the poll had changed to 37 - 35 with the ‘Brown can win’ leader ?? Anyone else see it.
6 point lead
2 hours later
2 point lead
yougov?
I am fairly new to this forum (last two eeks or so) I have noticed a few odd traits
1, A rise in the scepticism of the polls inversely proportional to the Tory lead.
2.I think you are underestimating the Labour Party and it’s strategy ( I admit i am biased towards Labour).
Firstly they won’t win an election and know this, IMO they have been aiming for a hung parliament for the last year. This is starting to pay dividends.
There are two unknowns - will they get back the votes lost due to the Iraq war. If you look at the most marginal Labour / Tory seats (34 of them)and the votes from 2001/2005 (raw data can be found here http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/pnorris/Data/Data.htm). You will notice that in all of these seats the Lib Dems cannot win. In 22/34 more voters changed to Lib Dems than Tory and in 24/42 (overlapping with previous) the Labour Vote went down more than the Tory Vote went up.
There is still an enormous amount of animosity amongst Labour Voters towards the Tories (easily as much as is shown towards Gordon Brown on here) the threat of a Tory win could bring these voters back in line.
The second is reaching out for the Lib Dem votes. The move towards reforming the voting system could be crucial. This election is probably the only chance the Lib Dems will get for a referendum on this. Brown has offered AV and appears flexible, if insencere. Cameron cannot afford to move away from the FPTP system, it would be the end for the Tories.
I think in a hung parliament (esp with Labour as the biggets party) Nick Clegg could sell a Lib Lab pact to the party if Labour allow a referendum on voting and allow STV on the ballot paper. This would be a win/win for Labour as they could allow a free vote on it as with the Common Market referendun in 74 and they wouldn’t be too bothered if FPTP was retained.
I don’t think Brown would survive long as leader (he could have health problems
) Remember if Labour do scrape through, it will be attributable to one Person - The Dark Lord himself, while Mandy couldn’t be PM he will be in a position to force Gordon out.
435. Serious jiggery pokery going on over this poll
This YouGov poll looks like a labour stitch-up. I have been saying for months that YouGov, run by Kellner is way, way biased in labours favour. All the figures are suspect.
I expect that Brown will go to the palace tomorrow with Kellner as his driver.
366. David Roe reported last night that he had seen The Times saying 39-33 and within minutes was being quoted by twitters all over the place.
Someone else gave a link to The Times showing those figures but it turned out to be last Sunday’s edition. Not sure if David made the same mistake or not.
The Sun taped the PM making a condolence call to a bereaved mother in order to ridicule him. The Sun had just become the Tories new best friend..
The most damaging story about Brown so far appeared in last Sunday’s Observer. Then up pops Mrs Pratt and the narrative changed…..Tory dirty tricks? An office next door.. The public start joining the dots
The public are reminded by a commons committee that Andy Coulson is ex editor of The Sun’s sister paper and is Cameron’s PR….
If you sleep with dogs you catch fleas and anyone over thirty five remembers that the Tories have a history..
369. jiggery-pokery
n
Informal chiefly Brit dishonest or deceitful behaviour or business; trickery
[from Scottish dialect joukery-pawkery]
Well that would fit!
369, I disagree Kellner is biased, though I think his interpretation of the results (a 11 point lead = 1 seat majority is tosh) is wrong.
However… this looks dodgy as hell. Did this poll have a Labour Disloyal category? Why were Tory shares being adjusted by 1.2 points in 2009 and 4 points in 2010? Why did the lead magically become 4 points lower within a few hours?
How unfortunate that a poll like this should emerge the very day of Cameron’s speech.
In 22/34 more voters changed to Lib Dems than Tory and in 24/42 (overlapping with previous) the Labour Vote went down more than the Tory Vote went up.
should read…
In 22/34 more voters changed to Lib Dems than Tory and in 24/34 (overlapping with previous) the Labour Vote went down more than the Tory Vote went up.
Is it safe to hit the panic button yet?
The Sun taped the PM making a condolence call to a bereaved mother in order to ridicule him. The Sun had just become the Tories new best friend.
The most damaging story about Brown so far appeared in last Sunday’s Observer. Then up pops Mrs Pratt and the narrative changed.
Tory dirty tricks? An office next door. The public start joining the dots
The public are reminded by a commons committee that Andy Coulson is ex editor of The Sun’s sister paper and is Cameron’s PR.
If you sleep with dogs you catch fleas and anyone over thirty five remembers that the Tories have a history.
367 I don’t think the change in ST figures is significant.
The polls have narrowed but other polls suggest a different picture from YouGov.
And YouGov has changed its methodology twice - once since the last election and once since the turn of the year.
Each adjustment has benefited Labour to a significant degree.
On the big picture, whoever goes into the next election without telling something of the truth is going to get slaughtered after. There are no circumstances in which I can see Gordon getting an outright majority. If he ‘hangs on’ the markets will slaughter him, or the public will.
What has Rawnsley had to say?
re 373. No. Stay around for my next article.
Morning all and even Andrew Marr and guests expressed some doubts about this poll. As Greg Dyke said, how could 39-33 in the first edition become 37-35 by the second? I assume they are “different” polls. However if we find that the orginal numbers were something like 43-29 and have been adjusted by -6 and +6 Peter Kellner has some serious questions to answer on Tuesday afternoon.
No sensible person should doubt YouGov’s integrity but serious questions must now be asked about its methodology if there has continued to be massive adjustment to achieve these final numbers.
Other than that all I can say is Gordon, take that drive up the Mall tomorrow morning and call the election. If you think you are going to win, then call it. If more Labour MPs enter the “chicken run” like the Hon Member for Blackpool North did 48 hrs ago then we know these polls are nonsense.
Incidentally I was stunned to learn that something like 10 seats presently held by Labour in Scotland have still not selected candidates.
370. Perhaps there were two (or more) polls done and the paper was given a choice.
369
Mike! 369 is calling into question the integrity of a polling organisation, I do believe this is against the rules of this site, please take appropriate action.
I would like to register a complaint about anti-Labour bias in the media. This poll has not been the first item on any of the news channels BBC/Sky etc, (a silly earthquake in Chile with a paltry few hundred dead seems to be more important) or headline news in any of the newspapers. I even looked out of my window expecting an aircraft to be flying by trailing a banner with the results, as for angels filling the skies proclaiming it with trumpets not one, nor even a celestial choir, singing it at the tops of their heavenly voices, the least I would have expected.
Further to my last 361 the leaflet had Ken Barlow from coronation street explaining why he is voting Conservative.
Believe he has said that at every election since 1964.
367 Perhaps we should classify this poll as an outliar?
[31] - That’s as maybe, but wouldn’t it be fair to say that the voters who went LD in protest predominantly did it in safe seats? How many seats did Labour lose because of Iraq
I answered this earlier in the week.
Half of the Labour losses to the Conservative in 2005 were directly attributable to voters switching from Labour to the Lib Dems in that the Labour - Lib Dem swing was higher than the Labour - Conservative swing.
The extreme example was one seat that the Tories won with a smaller share of the vote than they achieved in 2001 [because the Labour vote went down even further - switching to the Lib Dems].
371. How very opportune that a poll like this should emerge - this is exactly what happened on the first day of the last Tory conference
379. Lol. Great post.
Do many Tories on here think Osbourne is a vote winner to your average watcher of Marr? Why doesn’t Srteve Hilton check this with his focus groups? There’s no way Alastaire Campbell would have put someone as untelegenic on before the ‘97 election.
re 379. Wait for the piece Coldstone before making a judgement.
Good Morning Confused YouGov Watching Voters For Nick Palmer Worldwide
Meanwhile …. Remember PBers …. it’s all about polling trends NOT single polls.
Meanwhile …. chatting with a senior Tory chum yesterday and I’m told :
1. Cameron furious at what I call Tory ‘Wobble Bottoms’ and the Osborne snipers.
2. Tory private polling in the marginals not in the ARS range but “solid enough”.
3. Tories surprised at scale of “Labour defence and the difficulty in cracking it”.
4. Gordon Brown not as unpopular as Tories hope.
5. Not expecting many gains from the Lib Dems.
6. Expect first Green MP from Brighton.
7. Expecting 20-40 Tory majority.
378 - even if slightly tongue in cheek, this does raise an interesting possibility in relation to the polling firms which use ‘large’ samples to produce their polls.
One could easily see the attraction for a news organisation in acquiring two 1000 sample polls in preference to 1 2000 sample poll (for presumably a similar price).
Polling/mathematical comments in response to queries above:
- This is a seperate poll. Nobody is doing a rolling tracker this year (so far).
- It overlaps with the previous 6% lead (sample Thur/Fri insterad of Wed/Thur). It’s quite plausible to think that both had a bit of sampling error and the correct figure is say 3-4%.
- Margin of error diminishes dramatically if you take repeated samples and they show much the same thing. After half a dozen successive polls, there is no room for rational doubt about YouGov’s approach showing the Tory lead down to 6 or below. (That doesn’t stop you doubting the approach but it’s generally worked in previous elections.)
- Edmund is correct about unweighted subsamples. In fact, Brian’s comparisons show not that the national polls are unreliable but that it’s a mug’s game to get excited about subsamples.
Political comments:
- The last 10 days have been completely dominated by supposedly damaging material on Gordon Brown. A voter who didn’t think the bullying stuff was very substantial (and clearly most do not) could easily react by saying (a) if that’s the worst they can say about Brown he’s not that bad and (b) the Tories seem to have gone to sleep, I hardly hear from them at all. It’s possible to get bad publicity, but to have lots of “bad” publicity that voters don’t actually think is bad is paradoxically rather good.
- Because the recent attacks on Brown have backfired, the Tories’ reliance on “vote for us because we aren’t Brown” is starting to look dated. Cameron’s ratings are still a bit better than Brown, but the gap is narrowing rapidly (and has disappeared on the economy).
- I’ve stopped publishing canvass data but I will say that the shift in the polls has been no surprise at all. I think that Cameron will get good coverage for a “fightback” speech (the media love to ring the changes on that) and we’ll see the YouGov lead moving back up to 6 or so for a few days - in facvt he could read aloud the phone book and he’d stil be more visible than recently. But the underlying position is now a small Tory lead and NOM is the most probable outcome.
Oh, and on these figures the Broxtowe result would be a Tory lead of 0.2%. Could be an interesting evening for me on May 6.
*cough*
*BETTING GLOAT*
About a week ago I started pointing people towards the betfair Labour “most seats” market. Labour were 7.4 then. They are now 5.5, and closing.
It’s been clear to me for some time that the Tories have made several strategic and calamitous mistakes:
1. The Lisbon Betrayal
2. Keeping Osborne as Chancellor during a major recession - two posh boys at the top is at least one too much
3. Refusing to go negative and tax cutting and lower immigration-y until it is too late (it is probably now too late and will look desperate)
4. Launching all those stupid policies from January
All this has allowed Labour to gain momentum; such that I am fairly certain we are now in VERY hung parliament territory, and the chances of Labour being the biggest party are probably 1 in 3 and growing by the day.
The Tories blew it. Face it, lads. You blew it, you halfwits. This is 1992 all over again, only a billion times more risible. How could you not be 20 points ahead against the worst government in modern British history, led by the most unlikeable man in British politics?
TUT.
Your only hope now is that Brown makes one last major blunder. He may call the election date wrong, and give you a chance to fight back.
353 Jonny Jimmy
my seemingly under-appreciated contribution
Not under-appreciated at all JJ. Two cracking Limericks which had me chuckling into my tea: the first just marginally pipping the second, but both alphas. Great Sunday morning stuff.
I have a terrible memory for Limericks, remembering only one which begins: “There was a young bishop from Birmingham, … “. The rest is not suitable for Sunday School.
390, Mr. Thomas, you change your mind very often, so it’s not hard to be right when you have so many opinions which change so frequently.
I’m sticking with my Tory majority of 50-70 seats, a view I’ve held for over a year now.
1. It wasn’t a betrayal as has been proven to you and pointed out here numerous times.
2. Osborne is excellent at strategy and has repeatedly made game-changing speeches and torn apart government PBRs.
3. You can’t have massive tax cuts with the fiscal position as it is. The immigration cap has been policy for a while, as has the IHT threshold going up to £1m.
4. Agreed. Policies shouldn’t've been release dprobably, and if they should then the presentation and thought that went into them should’ve been better.
No sensible person should doubt YouGov’s integrity but serious questions must now be asked about its methodology if there has continued to be massive adjustment to achieve these final numbers.
by Easterross February 28th, 2010 at 9:40 am
Why not Easterross? In this instance I believe that Integrity and methodology are interchangeable.
know-one want’s to believe that Kellner has used YouGov for his personal bias (Labour). I however think every-one is wrong, period.
278. Roger, have to agree, Seth’s post are superb , easily the best poster on here at present and always measured and fair unlike many others who are good but spoiled by partisanship.
376. OK Mike, I’ll hang on then.
oh for some polling that is not YouGov. One pollster setting the narrative at the moment, the rest are playing catch up or prove em wrong.
No movement for a week and then a 2% swing when nothing is reported in the news? We shall see!
Terrible Freudian slip by Osborne… he said “only the Tories can offer irresponsibility” or something along those lines.
335 Andypet & 366 Anna
Very important revelation. Similar story to the Pickles-Montgomerie gun jump at the start of the series. Both are deeply suspicious. If Greg Dyke (and David Roe!) is right then someone has some explaining to do.
Let’s highlight the original post again:
Greg Dyke on Marr pointing out that the poll lead in the first print editions of the Sunday Times was 6%, but was revised down to 2% in the next edition two hours later.
381. Coldstone: For the record I didn’t call the integrity of a pollster into question. I said there was serious jiggery pokery going on around the circumstances of the poll, backed up by Dyke on Marr. Maybe I should have put it in the original Scottish idiom ‘joukery powkery’
One of the unusual things about this election run-up is that the party which (until now at any rate) the polls favoured has had hardly any unqualified support in the media (apart from the Sun, which may not be entirely advantageous when it comes to floating voters who do n’t like it). This is bound to have an effect after a while.
396, a 2% swing from the first edition, indeed
I dislike trackers. [NB I did say this during conference too]. And yes, technically this may not be a tracker as it’s a fresh poll each day, where a 14 point lead becomes 6 points, and a 6 point lead becomes a 2 point lead from first to second edition.
Morning all. So this poll is predicting changes from the 2005 GE of:
Con +4
Lab -1
LD -5
Oth +2
Has anyone bought the Observer? Is it worth it this week?
358:
When is a Tracker Poll not a Tracker Poll?
The true definition of a genuine Tracker Poll is:
“An opinion poll in which the same sample, such as a small number of voters, is questioned periodically to measure shifts in opinion.”
Personally, whilst I have been questioned by YouGov only once in the last week, and not at any other time, then each poll must be viewed as distinct and separate as it appears to use a different population of the electorate each time - or why would it have to do frequent adjustments?
Has anyone or know anyone who has been polled consecutively by YouGov/
Party Seats Line on Betfair.
LAB 225.0-227.0
CON 329.5-340.0
LD 53.0-54.0
SNP 9.0-10.5
PC 4.5-5.0
This is the second time within a week that something very, very odd has happened with a YouGov poll.
392.
1. Cast iron guarantee?
2. If these Osborne speeches were gamechangers how come you are LOSING THE GAME?
3. People need a REASON to vote Tory. Not Being Brown is Not Enough. If a Tory government can’t promise to have lowered income tax after 5 years in office, what’s the point in voting for them? Same with immigration. You are too scared of The Guardian.
4. Too late now.
And as for me “changing my mind” I do it every three seconds, for sure, but when I make *BETTING POSTS* it is in deadly earnest, and I could see that it was all going wrong for the Tories, and the bookies’ were underestimating Cameron’s strategic errors and Labour’s gathering momentum.
I was right.
I also went on vote strike against the Tories six months ago, if you hadn’t noticed. I am one of the people who has deserted you.
But sure, go ahead, ignore everything I say and blame your situation on “biassed pollsters” and the Beeb. Deary me.
Seth & Polly, thanks :blush:
It is nice to get a little encouragement now and then!
Not a very good interview by Osborne on Marr at all, even setting the Freudian slip aside.
390. Not sure about you other points, but you are right about Ozzy. I have also been saying that all along.
Rubbish poll. Ozzy out.
368 RedRiding
Great post, which should probably get more attention than it will given the fast flow of the news tide this morning.
On the basis of this poll and the fact that there are certain advantages for Labour in going early (Chilcot, Budget etc…) I would have thought that 25th March is a distinct possibility. For this reason I would have thought the 19-1 available on Betfair offers good value. I still think 6th May is most likely, but would put 25th March as more than the 5% chance the odds imply. I would be very surprised if Brown wasn’t giving 25th March serious conseideration at thi svery moment.
398: “Greg Dyke on Marr pointing out that the poll lead in the first print editions of the Sunday Times was 6%, but was revised down to 2% in the next edition two hours later.”
Did the first print editions specify the date of the poll? They might have been using the poll from the day before if they hadn’t got the numbers for the latest one yet.
405,
1. As has been pointed out to you many times, this referred to a referendum of a treaty that was unratified.
2. Because the biggest one was 3 years ago, and the polls have slid since January.
3. People have a choice. Brown or Cameron. Labour or Conservative. On this measure, I believe the Tories will win well, but not spectacularly so.
4. Disagree. The polls have been very volatile since Brown became PM.
You think there’s no issue with a pollster changing a 14pt lead to a 6pt lead, or a pair of weird high/medium leads becoming magically transformed to medium/low leads?
URW
Is the spread always that wide on the Con line.
Terrible TV interview by the Scoe.
Ozzy out.
Terrible TV interview by the Scote.
Ozzy out.
Wow, the headless chickens are in full effect today.
Remember that Labour aren’t yet as high as they were in January last year.
I know the Tory lead is shrinking fast, but 4 points in 2 hours?!
411. I don’t think the first editions were online. I am sure that one of us poll-hungry eagle-eyed observers on here last night would have spotted it if it were.
Early twitterings were quoting David Roe verbatim. He works in the newspaper industry, so he could have access to first edition online stuff not available to the rest of us. On the other hand, he could have made the simple mistake that someone else did on here last night when they posted a link to last week’s edition.
Unless anyone comes up with a hard copy of a first edition showing that 6 point lead, then it would appear that it all stems from David Roe’s post very early in this thread.
365 Running latest YOU GOV Scottish poll figures gives only two seat changes.
Lib Dem loss of Dunfermline W byelection gain to Labour
SNP win Ochil from Labour.
Tired of intricate debate about statistical methodology?
Sick of waiting for Brown to call the election?
Want to read a post about really fast cars, probably including sarcastic insults about a grumpy Spaniard?
Why not check our Morris Dancer’s next F1 article, due out in a few days?
Last day of testing in Barcelona. Webber’s revealing comment about Red Bull having 60kg of fuel or less allows some minor extrapolation regarding other teams’ times. I may even (though I wouldn’t bet on this) have found enough information/value to offer a tip.
Shocking, I know.
I’m beginning to think Cameron is just unlucky. Not only do the vulgarians at The Sun decide to clambour into the back seat of a car with him but Osborne chooses this particular time to experiment with his Addams Family make-up box.
But worst of all Cameron’s saving of the day speech comes at the precise time that United play Villa in a televised cup final!
Raw data shares. As can be seen, the labour recovery is very much being driven by a scottish surge in support. For E&W the unweighted lead is +19% which is back at pre-bully levels. However on a UK front lab have continued to improve, up 5% on pre-bully levels. So, its the scots fault
UK share - E&W share
18th 41 26 - 43 24
19th 43 27 - 45 24
—–bulllying—–
22nd 40 28 - 43 26
23rd 40 29 - 42 27
24th 40 28 - 43 26
—–darling——-
25th 42 28 - 45 27
26th 43 30 - 46 26
27th 41 31 - 45 26
This is why brown wont call an election! on a ‘positive’ not for this poll, it has the potential for a big swing back to the tories tonight which theyll tie into cameron’s speech!
The only good thing about Labour doing better in the polls is the influx of new Labour commenters here on PB.
In particular, RedRiding at 368, welcome - make sure you post regularly!
416. Are you seriously trying to say you aren’t concerned about the Conservative lead being cut to just 2%? Not even a tiny bit?
387 Jack W
The conversation wasn’t around the swimming pool at Cliveden was it?
412.
Refusal to admit mistakes is part of the Tory problem. Cameron was the Tories’ biggest asset UNTIL he made the Lisbon Betrayal, it is precisely at that moment that his personal ratings began to slide.
We can argue til the angels expire from boredom as to whether it really WAS a betrayal - what is inarguable is that he was very stupid to allow the words CAST IRON GUARANTEE into the same article as the concept “referendum”.
He was also stupid to keep saying “we will not let matters rest” when the end was such a damp squib.
And finally he was stupid to not offer a referendum, of some kind, on Europe. If he had done that you’d have pocketed all the UKIP votes and you’d still be on course for a narrow victory, rather than heading for a comedy style defeat, a slapstick election, with custard all over George Osborne’s face and a sherry trifle dumped on Eric Pickles’ head.
But I don’t want to divert the thread onto Europe. The only thing more boring than Europe (even for me) is Tory whingeing about pollsters.
Chin up anyway, laddie. So Labour win and they will reap the whirlwind. Tories will still gain seats and, presumably, ministerial talent, enabling you to become an effective opposition as we head for eternal government of the left under AV.
Labour retirees at the next election -
Someone suggested recently that we should perhaps look at this info against the list of marginals.
Seems like a good idea. - Does anyone know where there might be a comprehensive list?
428.
Looking at YouGov’s increasingly odd methodology, have they painted themselves into a corner, that the regularity of the daily poll does not allow any scope to extract themself from, without it being too obvious?
412. Your defence is sounding a bit desperate. When Sean posts with his sensible head on he is very good , and on this he is spot on. It has been obvious for some months that the Tories have been slipping, it was fine when everybody just hated labour. Now that peoples minds have been focused , they see that the Tories have little more to offer than labour , its cuts either way and people are thinking that they don’t want the posh millionaires cuts. Lot of people on here live in a bubble and do not seem to realise that most people have no interest in politics and at best get a snapshot from the SUN or BBC. Labour have not been out of the news and contrary to some softies on here, Brown shouting and throwing his toys about will have made him more human. In the real world people see the Tories as lightweight because they are almost invisible and when they are not its seen as mega rich people talking about cuts that will never affect them, as opposed to Brown and his I am one of you tales. Sean is absolutely correct.
412. Morris Dancer,
Afraid that SeanT is right.
Mostly I get the impression that the Tories don’t want to win. There is no fire there. The loss of civil liberties has not had a mention (is this a spat with DD?). Grieve is useless. Grayling should have had a field day but is unspeakable. Hague is a public speaker but has said nothing about ‘not letting matters rest’ and has been gagged on Europe. What has two-brains Willetts said about Mandelson’s destruction of higher education? Gove could have had fantastic policies on schools but has fudged them, and - sorry - looks daft so won’t be listened to. Troughing Maude is still there. Clarke will put off as many as he attracts. I really like Osborne but he is not easy to sell. etc. It is a one-man band and that on its own is very bad.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say the Tories will still win a majority in the next election. Clearly this poll is awful for them, but they need to keep their heads and not panic. For various reasons, party identity is at an all time low, and the closeness of all the parties to the centre means there is now a massive unaligned swing vote, even among the semi-politically informed. This group is now floating from week-to-week, month-to-month based on headlines.
I think the Tories have probably hurt themselves a bit by peddling the monster debt narrative for months, and then saying “errr… actually, no we won’t cut until 2011″ and compounding it by promising to sell off the state banks cheaply. It also needs to be remembered that Labour moving from around 30 to mid 30s is disillusioned Labour voters coming home - probably by rallying around their man if they think he is unfairly under attack. On a subjective note, I think a (somewhat justfied) narrative of the Tories just pursuing populist ideas and anti-Labour attacks has come through.
However, this swingback does not have strong sentiment behind it, just like the massive Tory leads did not. It is all up for grabs during (and before) an election campaign. During this time the Conservatives will benefit massively from Cameron’s charisma, Brown’s lack of charisma, a lot more in the party coffers, and, I imagine, a well worked set of unannounced policy ideas. This should see substantial movement back towards them, starting with Cameron’s speech tomorrow. They need to keep their heads about all this.
They must not be complacent though, and there are some things they must do:
(1) Drop Osborne out of the lime-light. Every floating voter I know really takes a dislike to him, and he just doesn’t work well on camera. He comes across as petty in his attacks, as well as having an unapologetic aristocrat/cityboy dilemna. Ideally, this should mean putting Hammond in as Chancellor and giving Osborne a strategist/advisor role. Obviously George would be upset at this, but as Alistair Campbell showed, it would not have to mean him losing any power.
(2) Stop going on the attack the whole time. People have had ten years to make their mind up on Labour and a couple on Brown. You’re not going to change this now. The problem isn’t that people don’t think Labour are awful, it’s that they don’t like you lot enough. Negative attacks don’t push them down any more and just make you look nasty. There is someone that plays the role perfectly and that is John Major. Every leading Tory needs to watch and learn from him. You act saddened by Labour’s record, say it was an unfortunate strategy in x or y area, and say you have the ideas to sort it out. In two words: be statesmanlike.
(3) Allow other shadow ministers to announce new policies. Everyone already likes Cameron, but they think he is different from the party. You need to show there are others like him. These have to be ministers that seem like normal people: not posh and not partisan political geeks.
(4) Be much more subtle about the PR. At the moment it seems like chasing headlines, when people are sick of that after New Labour. You need to focus on messaging rather than individually popular policies. To do that it is very important to have a meaningful narrative. “Change” worked great for Obama, because it was already known what the Democrats stand for. When people don’t know what you’re about, its far too vague. You need something more about giving people back responsibility and control. But snappier.
427. Fat Steve.
Try the FOAK.
Morning all
Well I see chaos rules as Yougov intruiging Party ID shares continue to puzzle (I note they didn’t publish them in the early hours - have they now or is there a blackout on them).
My guess is what we will have seen is the Conservative ID share (unweighted) up and the Labour share down. Not much but a bit.
411. Rogerh
My guess is that News International had those figures for 36 hours - remember the poll was taken on the Friday….
I smell a Sun headline in all these machinations:
‘IT WAS THE SUN WOT WON IT’
Thought it was Labour that had betrayed us on Lisbon by ratifying it without going to the country.
432. Dilemna = demeanour. I need to stop typing and holding a conversation at the same time…
Some folks on Political Betting
Will one day no doubt be regretting
Foll’wing the polls
Blindly like moles
Gordon Brown… They can’t be forgetting?
I was looking in the first edition which came out very early. It looks like they held back the poll to later editions probably because of the results.
It’s why I used the words ‘It looks like’ the results are 39/33 as that was the end of the graph used above the daily questions.
413 ASOD- No ! The Spreads have been blown apart this morning. Yesterday I Bought LAB Seats at 215.5. This morning I Sold them at 228.5.
So it goes.
429. I wondered that. It depends on how out of line they are with others. If it is a lot, then they will come under pressure.
I suspect they are not dictating the narrative as much as they might because of this site.
Whilst the journos like to take their lines interesting how easily people like Boulton tack back when challenged with the sort of stuff discussed on here.
427
Given the big improvement in the polls for us Labour,one thing that does worry me, apart from Ashcroft’s money going into marginals, is the number of labour MPs standing down in seats where the majority is smallish, say less than 4k.
Here in Preseli last time there was a late change of candidate and an outsider was brought in by labour, who had no real chance to bed herself in. As a result the Tory, with a little help from his friends snuck in by a few hundred votes and looks very safe this time round.
My advice would be to constituencies in the same position, where the sitting MP retires, is to either get yourself a high profile local or national candidate very sharpish, or you could see yourself with a Tory MP come May.
I can see that sort of scenariop happning agin.
426: My vote for the Tories was always a vote against Labour, as they are the only party at present big enough to defeat Brown and Co.
This however, doesn’t mean that the Conservatives are my party of choice. That party has yet to be formed.
430, the polls are narrowing, I don’t dispute that. But unless Mr. Smithson has suddenly become a desperate Tory it’s not just those who want Cameron to win the election who have serious doubts about YouGov.
Anyway, I’m off for a bit. Hope the new article by Mr. Smithson is up when I return
388. Alex - I’m only being a tiny bit tongue in cheek. The media need to produce stories, so I don’t see any reason why they wouldn’t set things up so as to give themselves more chances of getting the required raw material. We’ve already had a couple of examples in the past of polls being commissioned but not run with - that we know of.
Incidentally in case, in all this excitement some (who are interested of course) have forgotten there is a conference going on:
http://www.conservatives.com/Get_involved/Webcasts/Spring_Forum_2010.aspx
These polls are astonishing. Perhaps Brown will hand the Falklands to Argentina to get another boost!
418 - Hard copy of the first edition is what I went from.
If I was some kind of secret agent spreading lies on purpose I would use a pseudonym.
Knocking on doors is amazing. It’s not quite 1993 but people are so sure they are voting Labour. People are scared of the Conservatives, really scared. It’s not just the incoherence, it’s the lack of direction, a view that Cameron is weak, Osborne wreckless.
More than anything it is a view that BECAUSE of the the Conservative Party, Brown is the victim and not the villian and a FUNDAMENTAL British norm has been breached. A sense of fair play. People feel sorry for Brown and that’s the clincher in all this. It’s the Tories who are personalising attacks against Brown and who the public idnetify as the villians.
I wrote after knocking 5,000 doors last week, the damage is done. I do not know how the Tories can reverse it at this late stage. People are sick and fed up of no policies, dubious facts, sniping.
Osborne today. Conservatives will rebuild manufacturing. Everyone knows it was Conservatives that destroyed manufacturing. A stupid own goal. He should have said “All Governments have neglected manufacturing and we feel in 2010….. ” It reinforces the snidy, hysteria that is turning people against them. He should have said “Labour’s done well to get us back to growth but we are concernend about how they have done this..” NOT the hysterical anti-Labour rhetoric.
Conservatives just don’t get it why its slipping away.
“the Conservatives will benefit massively from…..a well worked set of unannounced policy ideas.”
Do they have those “well worked policy ideas” in reserve?!
I’m beginning to doubt it.
Having just seen Fox on Sky, I’d like to offer an apology to Ainsworth, if I thought some of your TV appearances were poor, you’ve been bloody brilliant in comparison.
P.S.
If there are any Tory PPC’s in Portsmouth who were making plans to move to Westminster, you’ve just been hit below the waterline.
One more time for the slow learners in the Stupid Party.
A Tory government means:
LOWER TAXES
LOWER CRIME
LOWER IMMIGRATION
LESS DEBT
AND
LESS INTERFERENCE FROM BRUSSELS
YouGov is not a Labour conspiracy.
It’s a URW conspiracy, to make money out of people who know less than him.
429. I don’t think so. The 2% lead looks a bit unlikely, to say the least, but polling is not an exact science and if they were to retreat to their usual 6% next week, it would put them in line with the latest ICM (7%) and MORI(5%) polls.
405. I find it very interesting the reaction to biassed pollsters, and the BBC being out to win Labour the election. Certain right-wingers have also posted about a widespread postal votes conspiracy going up to Brown to fix the election, amongst others.
The American right-wing has always had a strand of paranoia and conspiracy-theory going through them. I have always felt this was a reaction to its frontier history and a distance federal government that people didn’t understand. But I’m still quite shocked when I see how much it is mentioned by several hard right-wingers on here. Is this an importation from America in the web-age, or has it always been part of British politics?
450. I think we can all trust David Roe on this. It does seem that there are a lot of questions to answer about this poll.
234.
He should not only drag Alan Duncan on stage and give him a good thump, let’s include Nicholas bloody Winterton, Norman Tebbit, Michael Heseltine and all those others who are sniping from the undergrowth. If they think they can win this election by going to the ‘blue rinse’ party, then they are more out of touch than I thought.
I’m glad I went to bed before I saw this poll because my last message last night was I felt there was something really strange going on last night. I’m even more convinced now that there is an almighty ‘con’ going on. Can’t put my finger on it but something is going on.
Watching Christine ‘big mouth’ Hamilton doing SKY paper review saying she doesn’t think Gordon Brown is a bully - FOR GOD’S SAKE WHAT A BUNCH OF TRAITORS THESE PEOPLE ARE. She and her husband are one of the reasons we have spent thirteen years in opposition and now they are treated like media stars.
I despair.
426. “…rather than heading for a comedy style defeat, a slapstick election, with custard all over George Osborne’s face and a sherry trifle dumped on Eric Pickles’ head.”
Can I just say I wrote two weeks ago ….. the first…. it’s slipping fast out of Tory hands. Voters on the doorstep have made their mind up. Labour not good, Tories useless. Brown victim, Cameron salesman/villain.
Incredible Labour response in middle and working class areas. This poll reflects accuratley what we have been getting. The problem is floating voters were SURE / ADAMANT / CLEAR on the doorstep they are voting Labour and except for a seismic event, they have made their minds up. Door after door.
This poll reinforces our canvasing.
Spot on,SallyC @ 451. The secret is to get out of bed at 5.am, before the early birds dip their beak.
Seriously though, I live off volatility. When I get it wrong I break level and when I get it right I make a living.
Welcome to RedRiding too - impressive first post at 368!
I guess we’ll be back to debating YouGov’s weighting this afternoon before we get around to Cameron. The raw data shows the Tories 465-351 ahead, which is lots, so all you Weighting Sceptics out there have got material to go on. The point about YouGov, though, is that their method has always been curious. In theory it ought to be all wrong to have polling restricted to internet users and to ignore certainty to vote and to adjust for demographic factors with uncertain links to political preference. In practice it’s turned out to work well in predicting results.
What we don’t need to argue about is the trend, which has clearly moved towards Labour (and not just in YouGov).
443. Morris, I’m not doubting Mike’s neutrality on poll analysis, but for the record he does favour a Cam govt. He is Liberal supporter but favours the Tories over Labour.
Anyway, looking forward to your F1 piece.
432. I tend to agree with this statement.
Labour is and continues to be discredited. The bullying story did stick and is generally assumed to be true and no-one really believes that the large debt mountain is a good idea.
Cameron needs to widen the base of the Tory campaign and bring on the stars who will win votes such as Hague and Clarke. Osborne has said enough and is too Eaton and too posh.
The BBC is hostile to the Tories and they need to live with it until they can reform it.
The Conservatives need to be more aggressive against UKIP in the same way that Labour has attacked the BNP. This farce of people like Sean attacking Cameron for the Lisbon Treaty has got to be put to bed. Cameron is a Euro sceptic yet UKIP supporters would rather let Labour back in than the Tories win?? Who exactly signed the Lisbon treaty without a referendum? Am I missing something.
I live in the rarefied world of manufacturing far away from the world of politics. The news has been generally terrible with business investment falling off a cliff. I see no sign of a recovery this year and the rebalancing of the economy has yet to begin. We sell a lot in Asia and the global recession has ended and inflation is beginning to spike upwards. This will create a major challenge for Labour in the next few months and I suspect they will go for an election quickly.
The attacks on Gordon Brown have been done now to ad nauseam.
Surely there is not much more political milegae left for the conservatives in playing the man, as it seems to many they were coasting to a win on this alone, without offering with clarity their alternative policies.
368
I agree that I encountered a lot of hostility about the Iraq war on the doorstep in 2005 from normally very strong labour people.
Lib Dems picked up around 1200 votes here in Preseli and Plaid a few,I believe almost entirely from Labour.That was enough, together with other factors for labour to lose.
I believe that many of those people will come back to labour now the Iraq effect has largely gone, but may not be enough to win us the seat back.
I don’t believe any of these petty things will have a bearing on the election. It’s going to be about image. Which party can most effectively take the country forward?
In focus group speak think of a car that represents the two main parties? Labour is a slightly rusty Volvo-the Tories a shiny red mini with go faster stripes.
For the mountain we’re being told we have to climb the Volvo isn’t a bad bet.
163. Dez - the attacks you refer to have not come from the Conservatives. They’ve come from those working closely with Brown from his own team. Rawnsley is a long time Labour supporter as everyone knows. I have to hand it to the spin operation around Brown that they’ve managed to fool the public into thinking allegations of bullying are a Tory smear.
Anyone who has read about Gordon Brown over the years will know that these reports of his uncontrolled rages are far too persistent and consistent to be a smear. They come from those with a conscience who know Brown quite well, who seriously believe he is not fit to govern.
450. SeanT
http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/2010/02/28/on-message/
says what you are saying and why it didn’t work for Michael Howard.
465. Roger - only a few posts ago you announced George Osborne was simply not telegenic enough for a campaign - a mistake Mandelson would not have made had he been advising the Tories. Now you say image is not important. Not very consistent is it?
469. Sorry Roger. You are being consistent. So it is all about image in your view. Ever the ad man
I am a Tory supporter and on the Yougov list but it has been a very long time indeed (well over a year) since I have been asked to take part in a poll that is anything other than Brand goods. Does this have any bearing on the results. Others have commented on this also
This is my first time posting, so I hope you are all going to go easy on me as I am a PB posting virgin.
I am a committed Tory voter, I am a member of the party and I have volunteered to assist Bob Stewart campaign for the seat that Jaqui Lait is resigning from in Beckenham.
I can see why the Tory lead is reducing, they seem to be attacking the PM personally (and for whatever reason people feel sorry for this man - I don’t see why) they have not been focusing on policy, and in the run up to an election a small number of people do go back to the government. Brown also has had the small boost of our TINY emergence from recession, which with the re assessment of the figures is now a whopping 0.3 percent - crack open the champagne all is well.
However, I honestly cannot believe that Labour support has grown so much in the last month. This seems almost contrived. I am yet to meet anyone that will vote Labour. Even Labour voters tell me they have had enough and will place their vote with the Lib Dems or other parties. The conspiracy theorist in me (which I am really not) thinks that perhaps this is Murdochs plan to make the Labour party feel safe with Brown to ensure he leads them into the next election.
The figures are concerning. This is not a good poll for the Torys in anyway. The lead being down to 6% is bad, but about where I would place them at this time. The lead being down to 2%? I just don’t see where Labour are getting this support from. Over the last 13 years they have destroyed this country and not just the economy. If people seriously want to give them another 5 years to keep going, I for one wont be here by the end of that “historic” 4th term, as I feel there will be nothing left but a nation of politically correct, welfare dependent (I do not mean those who need to claim, but those who choose to claim) or for the few left in work, constantly on strike nation that is laughed at by the rest of the world.
My apologies for the rant.
By the way this site is fantastic, I learn so much on here. I was 13 when Blair won in May 1997. I was at an athletics meeting on May 1st whilst the votes were being placed, and it was a boiling hot day. I woke up the next day with severe sunburn, and to the news that Blair had one a sweeping majority. I took this to be a bad omen.
368 Redriding welcome to the bear pit. Seriously though a pro Labour PBer who doesn’t simply smear Tories is very welcome and we Tories will be interested in what you have to say as will the others carrying other political colours.
Well, this poll is a shocker and no mistake. I can’t see what’s happened over the past 10 days, to cut the Conservative lead from 9% to 2%, but Yougov have a good reputation. Trying to argue that it doesn’t count, because Peter Kellner is a Labour supporter, is a bit futile, IMO.
There are some crumbs of comfort for the Conservatives. Cameron’s ratings remain high, and well above Brown’s, which suggests the party would benefit if his profile was higher than it has been in recent weeks. And, as with the rest of the series, Labour seem to have an absolutely gigantic lead over the Conservatives in Scotland, where it can do them no good, while performing much less well in England and Wales. And (also, as with the rest of the series) there remains a hefty UKIP vote that the Conservatives could squeeze.
I suppose that this election is turning out to be like those of 1964, 1970, 1979, and 1992, where the outcome really is in doubt till the end. In the first three, Oppositions also saw big poll leads slide away as the election approached.
Ben Bradshaw claiming Exeter is not a marginal and he seeing no chance of Tories taking it. If that is the case clearly he cant be pulling in party workers from seats across the region to help his campaign can he?
454 Knocking on *5,000* doors?
478
Don’t worry I’ve got Buckfastleigh down as an SNP gain, that’ll protect the supplies.
I see on Guido there’s an anti-Tory troll posting under the name Martin Day, and no it isn’t me.
GE Seats Spreads:
Sporting - Suspended….quelle surprise.
extrabet - No show……quelle surprise.
Pathetic - surely the way spread-betting markets operate (or so they always claim) is by encouraging an active market between buyers and sellers and making their money on the spread, that’s their entire raison d’etre.
Should they be concerned about being caught out, it can’t be too difficult to include a bet limiter, just as conventional bookies do. Just closing up shop for hours, even days on end just isn’t acceptable and belies their oft repeated claim of punters being able to trade their positions 24/7 - what a joke that is!
Has anyone else noted that in the “depths” of the News of the World coverage there is a reference to a new ComRes Poll giving the Conservatives a lead of 11%? However, I can find nothing on the Com Res website more recent than a poll on Friday for BBC Daily Politics that appears not to have had any voting intention questions (though 3 in 5 of those polled expected the Conservatives to win).
Any clues?
457 as a supporter of the “Stupid Party” I don’t think your list holds water
LOWER TAXES - They have supported the 50% tax band, there is suspicion they will hike VAT as Lamont did in the early 1990s. There is little evidence that the overall tax burden goes down under a Tory Government. A lot of people think higher taxes are a necessary evil (esp if they are not paying).
LOWER CRIME - the figures simply don’t bear this out, even if Grayling has tried to spin the figures
LOWER IMMIGRATION - Most immigration comes from the EU unless you are advocating withdrawal, any other measures are playing around at the margins.
LESS DEBT - everyone agrees that debt is an issue, Labour are winning the argument over timing, Remember a recent estimate suggested 60% of workers are employed directly or indirectly in the Public Sector and really fear for their jobs. They are receptive to the arguments that cuts can be phased in, and that Debt is a technical issue that economists don’t agree on.
AND
LESS INTERFERENCE FROM BRUSSELS - the Tories took Britain into the EU, Thatcher signed up to the Single European Act (the biggest change in our sovereignty) and Maastricht.
The caste iron guarantee of a Referendum on Lisbon harms the Tories more that anyone else as they have the most Euro-sceptic voters, it isn’t really an issue with Labour voters.
I have a theory that tory voters are lying that i will vote labour. Many websites have cottoned on to the fact brown will only have an election if he thinks he has a chance of winning. So if people being polled say they vote labour the polls will get closer. I have heard on facebook pages such as get brown out that they are trying to persuade voters to say they vote labour just to get an election so this may actually go someway to explaining the polls.
Tory big lead - polls accurate
Tory lead shrinks - polls can’t be right
Hold tight to your straws, Dave fans.
re 484. Have you got a link to the NOTW story?
re 487. Given that the record of the polls over the past quarter of a century is that the most accurate poll is the one with Labour in the least favourable position then that’s a reasonable assumption.
For the record is clear and keep on saying it to yourself - the pollsters are recidivist Labour over-staters.