What if Clegg can persuade us that he’s winning?
April 20th, 2010The conditional voting intention finding from YouGov
| “How would you vote if you thought the Liberal Democrats had a significant chance of winning..?” (YouGov - April 19 2010) |
Apr 19 |
|---|---|
| LIB DEMS | 49% |
| CONSERVATIVES | 25% |
| LABOUR | 19% |
Meanwhile - the first of tonight’s polls - from PB/Angus Reid
| Angus Reid/Politicalbetting | Apr 20 | Apr 19 |
|---|---|---|
| CONSERVATIVES | 32% | 32% |
| LIB DEMS | 33% | 32% |
| LABOUR | 23% | 24% |
Mike Smithson
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Wow
woah!!
But he can’t. Because he’s not.
Well, if Clegg can get the “Yes we can” momentum then the Tory Brown/Yellow nonsense goes down the tubes rather spectacularly…
Interesting but very leading, isn’t it? How would you vote if the Tories had a really good economic policy?
Pretty funny on the last thread how the ComRes rumour got us all going! Yes, on reflection, the Tories are right: very poor methodology, Comedy Results, etc.
Tonight’s ComRes fieldwork was Sun + Mon - ie almost the same as LAST NIGHT’S YouGov.
So IF Lab is in lead it looks like an outlier. Note also Opinium and AR included fieldwork up to Monday.
Which car would you buy IF you had a winning lottery ticket a) Ferrari b) Bugatti c) Aston Martin.
It is about as valid.
For details of the You Gov survey
http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/YG-Archives-Sun-possGovts-19.04.pdf
More subsidiary questions also pro Lib Dem
doesn’t the opinion polling shift show that he’s moving opinion. if the opinion shifts more then they could start a snowball (or ashball) effect?
People do like to be seen to back a winner.
PS Mike fpt my id came up on someone else’s comment. Can you check it out?
Maybe somebody has leaked the Com Res figures before they have been through the “magic black box”, like they did last week.
i am sure the tory right would be delighted to lose this election and see corrupt labour hold on propped up by my party expecting an implosion within a couple of years.
Tories sub 30% tonight ?
Tory supporters need to wake up. You will gain seats but will not win. Cameron has blown it.
THE SAME FIGURE SINCE 1987…………..FIRST PAST THE POST IS UNDEMOCRATIC!!
ComRes is “within margin of error from last poll”
So I suspect it actually shows an enhanced Tory lead…. Fraser Nelson reverse ramping?
I hear COMRES is 35/26/26
More SuBo factor - I’m bored with this, can’t we have another party leader to big-up?
How abour Farage or Lucas
Gives
LD 534
Lab 48
Con 41
SNP 5
PC 3
Oth 1
NI 13
14. Fraser is a little ‘excitable’ Bobajob.
Could they do one for Ukip you might get a similar result
15 - From whom if we may ask?
The people want real change!
6. Agreed. Outlier until confirmed elsewhere.
luke @15
Source please, or rubbish. No mention on twitter.
Charlie Whelan tweets:
Exclusive>ComRes poll to show Clegg bubble burst?
15. If true that is amazing for Con. Only 50% of sample is new so to go from 32 to 35 implies new sample (Monday) well above 35.
luke @15
In what order
15 Is luke the new Don?
one word: bandwaggon
meaning? now the people see that libdems are coming in first or second
they see that a libdemvote might not be waisted
and may be voting libdem
if most of the do - the libdems would indeed win this game
swing calculator:
libdems 548 seats (+486)
labour 41 seats (-315)
cons 28 seats (-170)
5- Nick: “Interesting but very leading, isn’t it? How would you vote if the Tories had a really good economic policy?”
I don’t think that’s really fair, Nick. The former instance is a matter out of the Lib Dem’s control, while the latter instance isn’t a matter out of the Tories’ control. The poll does seem to show a very real possibility of a Lib Dem breakout if PERCEPTION, even if not necessarily reality, shifts in the Lib Dems’ direction over the matter of their electability.
YouGov
The economy blame game: Public reveal whom they trust and mistrust most when it comes to the economy http://cot.ag/dzOBMR
If the rumour source were Hawkins then a Lib Dem lead could make sense.
Also, as I posted last thread, the decline in Tory fortunes coincided with (as well as the debate) the volcano. If that many people are abroad, it may well be affecting the polls.
I believe the above result to be bullshit. There is no way half the country are Lib Dems, and neither Labour nor the Tories have hit such lows for a long time.
Lib Dems 20/1 for an overall majority (Ladbrokes).
Could it be a banker?
27 - or the new Wayne?
FraserNelson on Twitter: Update: there is a God. ComRes rumours untrue. Navy ship safe to return home.”
It’s a leading question. Safe to ignore.
Only worthwhile if the same question is asked 3 times naming the 3 parties in turn.
4. Cicero is right to a large extent and also sorts of slightly sad Lib Dem commissioned polling from the past confirms this senario. It would be like that childs game I used to play but can’t remember the name of where you with drew straw after straw from the tube and all of a sudden all the marbles would fall down at once.
This however begs four questions.
1. Is Clegg ” Winning” because of psychological projection? The Mr Smith/President Bartlett motif?
2. If the answer to 1 is ” Yes” what happens when his opponents smear the blank canvas with dog T**D?
3. If we all know the answer to point two is very bad then should the Lib Dems preempt this by using debates 2 and 3 to filling in their own blank canvas?
3. If so what should it say?
New Angus Reid poll just added - Labour down to 23%
Plato @29
cont
The British public consider David Cameron and Gordon Brown to be equally capable of getting the economy out of the recession according to our poll for the Sun newspaper. Both leaders receive 30% of the total while Nick Clegg, who has seen a huge surge in popularity since his appearance on the ITV TV debate last week, is interestingly trailing behind at only 19%.
What happened to St Vince?
Exclusive>ComRes poll to show Clegg bubble burst?
This is what Whelan is saying on twitter.
How much of a hit have the Tories taken in the polls due to supporters being on holifay?
Remember people said Brown should hold the election now due to Tory supported being on holiday..
Do we have an ETA for ComRes?
Fraser Nelson states on Twitter that the ComRes rumour he was pushing earlier is untrue.
frasernels
Update: there is a God. ComRes rumours untrue. Navy ship safe to return home
40 - Does he want his reputation to be mud?
@ 15. Please tell me thats not 35 for Clegg? This is getting ridiculous now!! 13 yrs. of dumbing down of society & the great british electorate doesnt know its arse from its head anymore!
Mike, surely yesterday’s Liberal figure on Angus poll is wrong?
36. Lib Dems come first in Angus Reid poll… and not worthy of a mention! (By the way, Mike, you’ve got yesterday’s Lib Dem figure wrong.)
What is the world coming to?
You could argue that the same sortof figures might appear if the question said that John Loony and the OMRLP had a serious chance of winning.
On the last thread for Ben M, the most serious matters regarding former Cllr Purcell and those around him are
1) why did officers from the Scottish Serious and Organised Crime Unit feel the need to “meet” Mr Purcell in his office in Glasgow City Chambers last year?
2) Why has a trading company wholly owned by the City Council been required to seek repayment of a £4000 donation it made at a Labour Party fundraising event?
3) What was Cllr Purcell’s precise connection to some of Glasgow’s leading underworld figures?
4) Why was a well known leading underworld figure present at a fund raising event for Jim Murphy?
fraser nelson - lol
35 Yellow Submarine
Kerplunk !
36, morale boosting for the yellows, but it’s just margin of error as you were stuff.
Interesting to note that some pollster have it almost even stevens but Angus Reid has Labour last by a margin and Con and LD roughly equal.
al beeb pointing out that Brown’s 100 coaches in Madrid don’t exist, and that they would be for people from travelling from outside EU.
Perhaps Brown has sent a coach to Madrid, step forward Rafa Benitez.
42 - It would appear that he does.
Wow - Labour at 23!!
*pours large glass of fish fingers in celebration*
Stars and Stripes
Stripes, old chap, same Malcolm - reformed character. Been very ill recently, might be a trifle worried about meeting the old ‘Maker.’
36. Old habits die hard Mike.
I think you meant to record the Lib Dem comparison as being 32 not 22
261. Yes. Here we go again.. “STV is f**king perfect”, “God would have created STV”, “STV is better than sliced bread” etc. etc.
Let me rephrase my point: there is a *quota* based upon the number of seats to fill.
I don’t want the boundaries, or size of the multi-member constituencies, fiddled so the Liberal Democrats get an advantage.
I am going out now. I may be some time.
Brown’s statement that there were 100 coaches already in Madrid untrue. Looks like the stranded will have to wait a few days more. That wont make them very happy.
OMG another Brown b4lls up. pi$$ up and brewery comes to mind.
35-26-26, if Baxtered, gives C299 L233 LD 86 - Cons 27 short.
It also has a very, very large number of Labour seats the palest shade of pink - with the Tories so low in Scotland, I would suspect a good number of those pale pinks would go pale blue. Con majority I’d say.
I imagine VIPA would have that anyway.
if those arse figures were correct on the day, say goodbye to liam fox and oliver letwin = about as likely as any of the other stuff going around about the lib dems = unlikely.
57, Brown = Iraqi Information Minister.
Angus Reid confirms it is a two horse race - Lib Dem versus Conservative.
50 - When will he stop lying….Does he not realise that finally the media are picking up on so many more of his porkies…
labour at 23. Read it and weep palmer.
Plato @52
You mean enormo-haddock fingers, surely?
This is indeed the crucial question in any GE regardless of the voting system. Floating voters, all other things being equal, tend not to vote for someone who has no chance of winning. So Clegg needs to keep the narrative going if he can. If he does:
- Very soft floaters might stick with the LDs
- Anti-tory floaters might stick with the LDs
- Anti-Brown floaters might join the LDs
- Tony’s tories might join the LDs
Then the holy grail
- Core labourites/tories might switch.
As you can see, this is no easy feat. Clegg has to remain detached from the main 2 with his I’m different mantra, resisting the fools who want him to jump one way or other. He also has to try to attract 2 different voting blocks, without upsetting either voting block. Then he has to withstand the scrutiny, whilst keeping this coalition together.
And the LDs have never done this before, tories and labour have, but seem to have forgotten how. What fun.
o/t but what are these rumours of a SDLP/Sinn Fein pact in NI?
53- Wow, I’m impressed! I have enough enemies already anyway, I guess I could make do with one fewer.
I’m sorry about your illness but I’m inspired that it has obviously brought out the best in you.
46.
Like I said. Trifling and of no consequence to the General Election.
Gordo is reminding more and more of this guy,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s27Oq5ot0ZI
36. There is a lady of the night who frequents the jetty down by Plymouth Harbour that the Labour Party may want to visit in just over a couple of weeks time.
63, who would want to hurt a poor, innocent enormo-haddock?!
Clegg needs to kill a lion or two in Thursday’s circus.
And to receive afterward a long, thunderous ovation from the crowd, followed by a few thumbs-up by the fashionable opinion-makers.
@iaindale
Blogpost: British Jobs for Foreign Workers (at the Olympics site) http://tinyurl.com/y4hop9f
55. That is what the Boundary Committee is for…
But I seem to recall you didn’t like constituencies with 4+ members, so there is a certain contradiction there…
But anyway, these are the sorts of details our two parties will have to work out after the election
Oracle @61
Agreed - and it’s not like fictitious house building - it’s obvious within hours that it’s not true.
He is a complete berk. And a liar too.
65 - There is no SDLP / Sinn Féin pact in Northern Ireland and there wont be. In fact the single most viscious contest in the entire GE is likely to be between their candidates in South Down. Sinn Féin have withdrawn Maskey from South Belfast but that’s due to naked self-interest rather than a pact.
ANECDOTE ALERT!
I spoke to a few people today who, almost uniformly, said that they were undecided between Lib Dem and Tory at the election. The main criteria they were applying was “anyone but Labour”.
I wonder if we may see this further in other polls, like we have in AR. I wonder if the underlying sentiment at this election is not to give the Tories a thumping mandate, but rather see anyone installed in government but the Labour Party.
Of course, there is the Lib Dem/Labour coalition argument, but I see that as a smokescreen. Unless Labour come very close to retaining largest party status I see no positives in Clegg propping them up, and don’t think he would.
O/T There are currently 350+ planes airborne over Western and Central Europe, including many that have overflown the UK without mishap. Have the Met Office $crewed up with their advice to NATS?
71 I suspect Nick Clegg would lose much of his support if he did ACTUALLY kill a lion or two on Thursday night…
And as I submit 64, AR confirm its a two horse race. For now.
60. We are all feeling a little horse now.
65. Rod, I know of no rumours. After Margaret Ritchie’s very public rejection of the idea it would be a huge blow to her leadership if she were forced to retreat on that now.
Where are you hearing this?
How much of a hit have the Tories taken due to voters being on holiday?
This is one of the reasons people thought the GE may have been called for around now..
On an unrelated note, why is Sarah Brown always on Gordons shoulder?
Angus Reid is dire for the Tories.
If they scrape a government on those numbers there’ll be riots in the streets.
FPTP is finished. And so is unfettered Tory governance!
75. still quite a remarkable move, is it not?
ComRes: Blue 35; Yellow 26; Red 26.
I also wasn’t too sure it was you, Malcom, and was too shy to ask!
Hope you get back in health soon.
85 - Don, you da man
84 - Remarkable? No, not really.
WTF!!! Chris Rea has given £100k to the TORIES
Support for a theory? Clegg’s ideal:
Tory *minority* Government that the LD’s can support on a Pay-As-You-Go basis (no contract!), siding against them as they feel the need. Labour out completely and a new election likely within 2 years max by which time funding support to LD’s is much improved…
87 - Also - ComRes clearly the new Gold Standard*
* Before I get battered to death, I AM JOKING!
brown caught lying again. Hold on. You cannot say that as he is an honourable man and does not lie. Or at least that is what victoria - i trade on my dads name - coren said on question time. Brown would free the yorkshire ripper if there were votes in it.
If Lab is on 23 what are the Tory and LD figures on the new AR poll?
OMFG
Gordon will need his sedation this evening.
84 ..Bennykins..keep going with the rubbish, just a couple of more weeks and then its back to the cardboard box down the embankment
“ComRes: Blue 35; Yellow 26; Red 26.”
Very good for the Tories!
Overall Territory?
52 Plato, what is fish fingers?
87 - Excpet in this case it appears that Luke is da man.
83 And 23% for labour is good?????
Basically, Labour are finished. Cameron needs to frame the implications of a Liberal win and start shifting his strategy towards combatting them instead.
One of my biggest frustrations over the past 2 years has been how the Conservatives have focused almost all their fire on “Gordon Brown” and failing to pin the blame for the state we’re in on the whole philosophy of The Left in general.
89 - Big Chris is a long standing supporter… donates v regularly. A good man, and not only because he is Tory!
Don @85
YES!!!
Don - take a bow
Don @85:
*chortle*
What does AR give us if it is Baxtered/Cooked etc?
77 EdP
it’s like I say you always have to be wary of NATS. Particularly if they are old !
Don - yes!
98 - Apologies, missed Luke’s post.
Luke, you also da man, in this case slightly more than even Don.
85 Don - Thanks.
So ComRes finding the Clegg bounce dissipating very quickly indeed, but AR are not.
Hmmm..
In isolation the ComRes figures look more plausible, but we’ve had enough polls, from lots of different pollsters, to confirm that the LibDem surge was real.
My guess is that we are beginning to see the surge die back, but that ComRes is over-stating this.
More importantly Ross County has announced that it will offer up to 2000 free tickets to children for next month’s Scottish Cup Final at Hampden against Dundee Utd. Any family where the parents buy the tickets will get free ones for the children.
Couldn’t imagine billionaires ManU or Chelsea doing that.
75. Missed the Maskey withdrawal Neil.
Further illustrates how the DUP and SF are mirror images of each other.
The question is, will the Tims blame the Stoops if F&ST is lost to Roddie Connor and punish them elsewhere? Or has Ritchie give the SDLP cojones and a raison d’etre.
It will be interesting to see which is the case.
ComRes through Baxter anyone?
EdP @77
It’s eminently possible to fly above the Cloud. The problem is getting a plane from the UK above it, as it means driving straight through
Hmm. So maybe the bounce is subsiding, but I cannot see the LDs polling much below 26% come May 6th.
85 So Luke was correct and stickytroll knew something we didn’t.
Either way AR or Com Res, one thing seems to be clear: Mandelson played a very risky game and Labour’s fingera are well and truely on fire.
The story is about getting rid of Labour. The public are surveying their weapons.
ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGH should stick to Canada
Alanbrooke @105
comres disappointing for us ld’s but good for tories. I believe we are fighting labour for second with labour tacitly supporting us as they think it will split the opposition to us. When was the comres fieldwork as ar is much better. Perhaps we should wait for yougov before assuming an ld slump.
88. First time ever to my knowledge that SF have stood down in favour of the SDLP…
Fits the definition of “remarkable” I think…
85. FOOKIN ‘AVE SOME!
Comedy Results: let’s hope they last!
Sourse for this Com Res ?
Like me, Chris Rea is a Teesside Tory born and bred! We do exist!
Philippe Magnan @86
Bon Merci Phillipe
83 Angus Reid is dire for the Tories.
If they scrape a government on those numbers there’ll be riots in the streets.
FPTP is finished. And so is unfettered Tory governance!
But it would be ok for Labour to continue in Government with 25% and 3rd place would it?
Don @85
1983 result! (except with a much smaller CON share)
Cooke calculator says CON MAJ 10 to 20
Not even Gabble can predict a Labour win from what we’ve seen so far tonight.
Where’s Rod’s swingback graph?
120 - None officially as far as I know, but Don has a superlative track record for having the scoop on these matters.
76 Numbertwelve that is what in essence happened in reverse in 1997 and it resulted in Tony Blair having over 400 seats and a 160+ majority.
Baxter on Comres gives Cons 27 short. Usual caveats apply, etc.
118 - Sinn Féin hypocrisy and self-interest never struck me as being particularly remarkable, a matter of opinion I guess.
77
As I understand it, the ash cloud is now quite a lot lower. So if you can get in the air without flying through it then you can go over the top of it. Unfortnately it is currently sitting over most of the UK hence no takeoffs except from east coast of Scotland.
AnneJGP @97
The Dept of Health decided that mere mortals couldn’t work out how many calories there were in beer/wine etc so ‘helpfully’ patronised us by converting measures into fish fingers.
It is almost impossible to parody this.
Jeremy Clarkson sums it up perfectly here
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/jeremy_clarkson/article6168271.ece
For online pollsters you can guarantee they (Tories) are answering the YouGov questions.
People are very bored waiting in airports with nothing to do. I am bored but have been
Working (not answering YouGov polls). Any thought that the polls will realign when the
Tories come home is cluthing at straws in the extreme
If Cameron does eventually win (and I know it remains a huge if) I wonder if we’ll look back and say that the defining moment (on PB) was Don’s post today at 6.17pm?
125, Oh, he’ll try.
fpt That YouGov/Sun conditional poll (if you thought the Lib Dems had a significant chance of winning nationally) is stunning and, I think, really significant.
http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/YG-Archives-Sun-possGovts-19.04.pdf
The headline figure for the Lib Dems (49%) is impressive. But the thing that grabs me is that the option of a Lib Dem government under Nick Clegg is the only option that delights more people than it dismays.
Now it’s fair to say 29% being delighted at the prospect of a Clegg govt isn’t exactly sweeping the board, but compared to 25% for Cameron and 18% for Brown this looks really significant to me.
Let’s think about this. If the LD vote were just a protest you would expect the number being enthused by the prospect of a Lib Dem government to actually remain quite low, and lower than those enthused by the prospect of a Tory government (in a poll, let us remember, which found more Tories than Lib Dem voters overall). You would think most people flirting with Clegg vote-wise would go no further than saying they wouldn’t mind a Lib Dem government (the other option). But no, more people actively and enthusiastically want a Lib Dem majority government than a Tory one. Wow! This isn’t going to just go away.
I would love to see some more polling on this topic, to see if it backs this one up.
From worst to best, the net figures (delighted minus dismayed) for the six options in the YouGov/Sun poll were -
Grand coalition -39
Con-Lib coalition -36
Labour govt under Brown -33
Lab-Lib coalition -25
Con govt under Cameron -20
LD govt under Clegg +8
by GA April 20th, 2010 at 5:45 pm
EXCELLENT POLL FOR LABOUR!
LD SURGE MEANS THE TORIES CAN’T WIN.
YEAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Stars & Stripes,
What do you think of DeMint’s chances if he ran for the 2012 nomination?
I did wonder what the implications were for SWINGBACK.
Fleet of Worlds @101
Well I never, the Road to Hell for Labour
Does anyone know if this is a full ComRes poll, or another tracker with only half a new sample?
iaindale
Blogpost: British Jobs for Foreign Workers http://tinyurl.com/y4hop9f
rod, it is remarkable. You are right. I await a reciprocal announcement in fermanagh and south tyrone. This election is so fascinating it has exceede my expectations.
133 - I am sorely tempted to set up a webpage, or facebook group, or summat, in honour of Don.
I picture him in a trenchcoat and trilby with a ciggie drooping from the corner of his mouth.
85. Oh no. Don speaketh so that means it’s true. Cons 35 and the other 26 means the Conservatives would be very very close to outright victory. Nightmare for Lib-Lab.
80. Are you thinking of Catherine the Great, or do you mean hoarse?
I’m just about to pop the champagne, just a few months ago Cam was looking towards a landslide and Samantha was measuring up the curtains for Number 10. Clegg for…..Home Secretary in a Lib/Lab pact.
Guido doing what he does best…
http://order-order.com/2010/04/20/disgraced-rennards-return/
Don,
I will always remember that after-noon, 2 years ago, when you leaked to us a YouGov poll showing Boris in a serious lead a few days before the Elections.
BoJo was trading around 1.8o on Betfair, and I pilled on like the maniac that I am.
PB should honour you somehow, in the future.
Don is a very credible source.
Has Nick Clegg managed to get his wife and kids back from Spain yet?
Don = gold standard of posters!
144 - are you the member for Thanet North by any chance?
131. I’m trying to remember the last time I had a fish finger.
I *don’t* think it was at the dinner table.
looking forward to Cameron doing a Clegg for Sky leader’s debate. He will try to be angry and stare into the camera to try and connect…it will be a good comedy performance I’m assured.
132
If you travelled much Chris you would know that the number of people taking their laptops with them on holiday is fewer than you might think. And wireless connection costs at airports are usually pretty high.
.
109 - A great gesture from them. My own team Burnley gave all those season ticket holders who had bought a ticket last season a free season ticket when we got promotion to the Premier League to thank them for their loyalty. I think it meant they gave away around 7000 free tickets in the best league in the world, costing the club an estimated £3 million in lost revenue. The fans could get the cash back or see it turned in to shares in the club. We really do have an excellent chairman.
27 & 32. Cruel, very very cruel. Either a Wayne or a Don, the two ends of the rumour spectrum.
83 - You know, this is the type of comment Lib Dems used to make when they were constantly in third place.
142 — Fleet of Worlds
Snap!
We just had a PPB by the Scottish Liberal Democrats. No Scots in it just Nick Clegg walking around London and a couple of other unidentified places with lots of litter blowing around. An attack 100% on Labour, everything littered with broken problems.
Just saw the rerun of the Cleggmeister’s PEB.
The sound editing is quite astonishingly terrible.
6th form media studies project?
131 Plato, many thanks, that one had passed me by - it’s hilarious.
154 - He turned out to be a Don not a Wayne! All good
157
Had the same down here in Sunny Peckham. Thought it was quite good, attacked without naming, which is always the best way.
Gordon really HAS to win one of the remaining debates or Labour will be third in vote share.
So he either defends raiding pensions well or not buying enough helicopters well.
159 - One of the joys of this government (and god knows there haven’t been many) is the way in which it became self-satirising.
Wow at Com Res - i’d take that on May 6th!
Good old Chris Rea too. I’ve always been a fan as my dad constantly had his tapes on in the 80s, but I assumed he was some lefty Middlesbrough Socialist listening to some of his tracks (The Road to Hell always seemed an upfront attack on Thatcherism), and was very surprised to learn some years later he was a Tory. Maybe he’s just a wet.
But back to ComRes, that’s sensational news. Tory revival but Labour flatlining in no man’s land!
Brown claiming he forsaw global banking crisis on BBC Points West.
Also caught some coverage of the SNP manifesto launch.
Labour had the soviet propaganda brochure.
Tories had the hardcover 120 page book.
The SNP manifesto looks like a bus timetable.
Aside from the fact that Cameron would be close to outright victory with this ComRes, let’s not miss the fact in all these polls that Labour are absolutely bombing. With the handling of the evacuations, Calamity Brown has struck again it seems.
Where’s Tim?!
Stuart
Couldn’t resist max allowable on Begg losing to LibDem in Aberdeen South with ladbrokes at 7/4.
My first political bet ever!
I still want to get a considerable wager on 100+ tory majority,but can’t find particularly good odds yet. I think I’ll have to place it before Thursday just in case Cleggmania is real which is looking likely. I differ from many others in believing the weird libDem thing will greatly help my prediction due to marginals,labour apathy and tactical voting by tories and anti Brown libbers.
164 - I’ve put a bit of Chris Rea on in the office. My twentysomething too-hip-to-live team are profoundly unimpressed.
Good numbers for the Tories from ComRes, but in all honesty, the electorate is so fluid at the moment that I’m beginning to think these daily polls are a waste of time.
Nobody knows what the hell is going on at moment.
I think the Com Res is a bit over optimistic for us but FWIW, just as the polling boost can have a life of its own, so can a deflation, which could become about the public ‘taking a closer look’ or ‘not being prepared to take the risk’. If we see a fall off in a few polls, the narrative will change and the ‘change’ narrative will be back in the Tories court, with added fuel.
But we will need more polls, as none of that may come to fruition.
Epic fail Cameroons.
Good election to lose, let the left bear the burden of cleaning up their own mess and get rid of phoney PR progressive Dave and his out of touch Notting Hill pals.
Great to see labour on 24 though and ‘others’ still holding up.
O/T - I no supporter of the Government but I despair at these stranded travellers moaning and whinging expecting the taxpayer to get them home on the Six`OClock news - same folk who complain about the nanny state - goodness knows how they would cope with true natural disaster like an Earthquake/Tsunami etc …
137- DeMint… that’s a tough call, but he seems Palinesque in his potential ability to rally a devoted cadre of supporters without really being able to put the whole thing together. In fact, the very presence of Palin as a presumptive candidate for 2012 takes away much of the playing field that someone like DeMint would hope to claim as his own turf. I don’t think 2012 is the right year for someone having DeMint’s profile, but he could be worth keeping an eye on for 2016 if Obama is re-elected.
benedictbrogan
No wonder David Cameron is harsh on welfare failure http://bit.ly/cxKwpb
Any news of any important possible strikes to come before the GE?
As all we Tory supporters were saying about an hour ago, Comm Res polls are great
Anyway, if the new rumours are true, and it has not been confirmed yet we should still point out, will now be interesting to see where YouGov goes. Will it confirm a new trand or not.
AR Crosby probabilistic
Con 255
Lab 198
LD 164
SNP 9
PC 4
Oth 2
NI 13
171 - “I think the Com Res is a bit over optimistic for us ”
Well, it’s a ComRes, so I’m not taking it too seriously…
169 - I’ve just loaded some Rea up on spotify, even though I am in that very same age bracket
does it matter what happens on sky in the debate ? Not that many people will watch due to it being on satellite compared to last week. The first one was the game changer afaic.
It may be the start of a shift, but I’m unconvinced by ComRes. A 9pt lead for a single party feels wrong, right now. Still, I’d rather a poll I’m dubious of shows a good Tory position than a weak one.
130 Richard, can aircraft not fly out from Heathrow out towards Charles de Gaulle or Holland below the ash clouds, and then climb out from there? Surely flying for 190 miles below their optimum cruise height isn’t completely uneconomic, if the planes aren’t fully loaded?
We need to wait the effect of the next debate on the “narrative”.
181, almost everyone will be able to watch, but even if they couldn’t, the post-debate debate (ie what the media decides the result is) will matter a lot too.
179. Yes it has to be said that being ComRes you Tories do need to see some sort of reflection in the YouGov and/or other polls. Even so … real signs of hope for the Conservatives.
Anyone know when the AR fieldwork was carried out? And when the ComRes was?
Comres… cameron PEB bounce?? labour PEB last monday attracted 9m viewers, just under the debates. Cameron’s had added publicity in the newspaper’s due to its uniqueness. Im also sure the unexpected positive attack from cameron has pleasantly surprised large parts of the electorate.
And, since 35/26/26 is half of the monday total of 33/28/28, then today the shares mustve been around 37/24/24!!!
Scott P @166
I think the SNP may have decided that including policies on English education, health etc would be rather a waste of space!:-)
steve @181
Sky have given the rights away so it’s on the BBCN and others unlike ITV’s exclusive coverage last week.
Has anybodt got a link yet to substantiate the latest Comres?
166 Scott, has Alistair Darling managed to find his way back to Auld Reekie for his second visit yet or is he still grounded in London?
1838: A scoop from our business editor Robert Peston - he’s got his hands on proposals from the International Monetary Fund to create two new taxes on banks, including one on the sum of their profits and the remuneration they pay. He says the taxes will “horrify” the banks and prove “politically explosive” - no doubt prompting Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems to all try to align themselves with the IMF’s crackdown.Read Robert Peston’s blog
Doesn’t everyone with digital get SKY news?
Re Chris Rea, worth looking at some of the lyrics to Road to Hell.
“And all the roads jam up with credit
And there’s nothing you can do
It’s all just bits of paper flying away from you
Oh look out world, take a good look
What comes down here
You must learn this lesson fast and learn it well
This ain’t no upwardly mobile freeway
Oh no, this is the road to hell”
They say St Vince was the prescient one re the credit crunch, but good old Tory Chris wrote this in 1989…!
190. It’s from Don. Should be kosher as Christmas…
AR three-way marginals
Dumfriesshire Clydesdale and Tweeddale
Somerset North East
Lincoln
Bedford
Stevenage
Eltham
Hammersmith
Westminster North
Bolton West
City of Chester
Lancaster and Fleetwood
Rossendale and Darwen
Wirral South
Dumfries and Galloway
Brighton Kemptown
Dover
Reading West
Dorset South
Swindon South
Warwick and Leamington Spa
Worcester
Calder Valley
Dewsbury
Halifax
Erewash
Waveney
Newport West
Coventry South
Telford
Warwickshire North
Elmet and Rothwell
Pudsey
Ashfield
Derbyshire North East
Grimsby
Scunthorpe
Luton North
Norwich North
Ealing North
Feltham and Heston
Harrow West
Stockton South
Barrow in Furness
Blackpool South
Bolton North East
Carlisle
Copeland
Crewe and Nantwich
Ellesmere Port and Neston
Hyndburn
Sefton Central
Weaver Vale
Ayrshire North and Arran
Lanark and Hamilton East
Paisley and Renfrewshire North
Renfrewshire East
Slough
Southampton Itchen
Bristol East
Kingswood
Alyn and Deeside
Cardiff South and Penarth
Cardiff West
Clwyd South
Delyn
Llanelli
Birmingham Selly Oak
Coventry North West
Newcastle under Lyme
Stoke on Trent South
Batley and Spen
Leeds North East
Wakefield
Tooting
Bradford West
Nottingham East
Gower
Nottingham South
Ipswich
Luton South
Brentford and Isleworth
Blackburn
Burnley
Pendle
Warrington South
Aberdeen North
Edinburgh East
Stirling
Southampton Test
Bristol North West
Exeter
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
Bridgend
Newport East
Poplar and Limehouse*
Brighton Pavillion*
*=4-way
LD gains from Con
Harborough
Chelmsford
Orpington
Eastbourne
Guildford
Meon Valley
Newbury
Bournemouth West
Devon Central
Dorset West
Filton and Bradley Stoke
North Dorset
Somerset North
Torridge and West Devon
Totnes
Wells
Weston-Super-Mare
Ludlow
Solihull
Worcestershire West
Haltemprice and Howden
LD gains from Lab
Derby North
Leicester South
Northampton North
Nottingham East
Nottingham South
Ipswich
Luton South
Norwich South
Watford
Brent Central
Brentford and Isleworth
Dulwich and West Norwood
Ealing Central and Acton
Hampstead and Kilburn
Holborn and St Pancras
Islington North
Islington South and Finsbury
Lewisham West and Penge
Leyton and Wanstead
Streatham
Blaydon
Durham City of
Hartlepool
Newcastle upon Tyne East
Newcastle upon Tyne North
Blackburn
Burnley
Liverpool Wavertree
Manchester Gorton
Oldham East and Saddleworth
Pendle
Rochdale
Warrington South
Aberdeen North
Aberdeen South
Dunfermline and West Fife
East Lothian
Edinburgh East
Edinburgh North and Leith
Edinburgh South
Edinburgh South West
Glasgow North
Midlothian
Stirling
Oxford East
Southampton Test
Bristol North West
Exeter
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
Bridgend
Gower
Newport East
Swansea West
Wrexham
Birmingham Hall Green
Birmingham Hodge Hill
Birmingham Ladywood
Birmingham Perry Barr
Bradford East
Bradford West
Colne Valley
Huddersfield
Penistone and Stocksbridge
Sheffield Central
Con gains from Lab
Amber Valley
Brigg and Goole
Broxtowe
Cleethorpes
Corby
Derbyshire South
Erewash
Gedling
High Peak
Leicestershire North West
Lincoln
Loughborough
Northampton South
Sherwood
Bedford
Great Yarmouth
Harlow
South Basildon and East Thurrock
Stevenage
Waveney
Battersea
Croydon Central
Eltham
Hammersmith
Harrow East
Hendon
Westminster North
Blackpool North and Cleveleys
Bolton West
Bury North
City of Chester
Lancaster and Fleetwood
Morecambe and Lunesdale
Ribble South
Rossendale and Darwen
Wirral South
Dumfries and Galloway
Brighton Kemptown
Chatham and Alyesford
Crawley
Dartford
Dover
Gillingham and Rainham
Hastings and Rye
Hove
Milton Keynes North
Milton Keynes South
Portsmouth North
Reading West
Dorset South
Stroud
Swindon North
Swindon South
Aberconwy
Cardiff North
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokshire
Newport West
Vale of Clwyd
Vale of Glamorgan
Birmingham Edgbaston
Burton
Coventry South
Dudley North
Dudley South
Halesowen and Rowley Regis
Nuneaton
Redditch
Rugby
Stafford
Stourbridge
Tamworth
Telford
Warwick and Leamington Spa
Warwickshire North
Wolverhampton South West
Worcester
Calder Valley
Dewsbury
Halifax
Oth gains from Lab
Poplar and Limehouse
Brighton Pavillion
Nats gains from Lab
Dundee West
Ochil and South Perthshire
Arfon
Ynys Mon
lowest winning share of the vote, 28.2%, LibDem, Gower…
35/26/26?
Squeaky bum time for labour and libs.
“then today the shares mustve been around 37/24/24!!!”
Imagine what could happen if Dave is declared the winner of Thursday’s combat?
In the 40s again?
But then, if Super Clegg lands a strong blow or two….
174. Yes - that’s pretty much my thinking. One of the reason’s I think the GOP has a good chance of ending up with Romney is because Palin won’t win enough of the conservative vote to beat him, but will hoover up enough of it to stop someone else doing it.
What about Mike Pence? He seems much more suited to be a candidate than fellow Hoosier Danials, but running from the House would be hard.
194 Cheering loudly for ther blues there Bob.
I have a theory [since this is the place for unsubstantated theories based on the science of guesswork] that you always always are. But it matters so much that when it looks like it going awry, but get very very pee-ed off.
Bob Sykes @194
So, we await YouGov. My prediction for that: same as before (LD lead of 1).
If there is a shift, then we may be seeing the beginning of a new trend, but I see no reason for one to emerge now. I think the next debate will be the next turning point.
I went to Chris Rea’s recent Oxford concert and it was a great show. His guitar work seems to have got better and better with the years.
191. Easterross. “has Alistair Darling managed to find his way back to Auld Reekie for his second visit yet “
He was allegedly in Worcester today, though I haven’t seen the 2 minutes of TV that would justify him not campaigning in his own constituency. Unless he knows he isn’t going to win of course…
This is for all you twitter fans out there:
http://www.tweetdeck.com/beta/
Every new tweet emerges a pop-up on your desktop and then fades slowly.
Interesting?
cathynewman New kid in town or chip off the old block? C4News
FactCheck on Nick Clegg coming soon…
GrahamH - people weren’t expecting the ‘nanny state’ to get them home.
But then Gordon F*kcs us about, telling us to go to spain and get on a Navy ship, when clearly he hasn’t organised anything. Between 850,000 and 1.5m Brits are being used as puppets in a labour campaign stunt that’s gone wrong.
And we’re pissed off!
Populus on Times website: 32 Con, 31 LD, 28 Lab
Have to say, despite being a tory, that all Comres polls should be taken with a massive pinch of salt.
On yesterdays figures all the pollsters were within 3 points of each other for all three parties except for Angus Reid. Do you think it might be an idea to call time on them until they get somewhere near the rest? All the news outlets ignore them when doing their ‘poll of polls’
178/196 - LOL @ Rod doing all the analysis on the AR poll and ignoring the ComRes one! I thought you didn’t trust AR, Rod?
168 Russj you might just want to put a tenner on the Tory in Aberdeen South too. In 1987 Labour took the seat from Gerry Malone by 1200 but in 1992 it was the only Tory gain when Raymond Robertson took it back by 1500. The combined SNP and LibDem totals at both elections was around 10,000. It should be a straight Labour v LibDem fight but many see it as a 3-way or 4-way marginal now.
Populus is out Con 32, LD 31, Lab 28 - fieldwork yesterday and today
where have all the Labour trolls gone..its quite amazing…they just disappear..
206. Let’s hope it’s more interesting than her ‘revelation’ that two people in a vox pop in Richmond Park didn’t like the idea of abolishing Child Trust Funds…
Is it possible, if those figures were true that the “Oh shiit, I am not propping up Brown in a hung parliament for 5 more yrs” message is getting through.
208, cheers, sam. Any indication of the fieldwork dates?
Conservatives
David Freud, Tony Blair’s former welfare adviser, explains how Gordon Brown was a roadblock to reform: http://j.mp/97W5WS
POGWAS
Nokia shares anyone?
Nick Clegg and David Cameron both touring South-West marginals tomorrow.
These polls are startin’ to give me the HORN.
216, unlikely, I think, Mr. Allen. So far only ComRes has shown a significant shift from the narrow Tory lead with Lib Dems narrowly ahead of Labour picture.
219 - Going to be around Exeter?
217. “yesterday evening and this morning”…
Very similar to ICM which is unsurprising given it’s basically the same methodology…
re 140. It is the ComRes tracker so a new sample of 500 everyday. It is also older than AR. The fieldwork ended yesterday
Populus in Times
32 C
31 LD
28 Lab
213 — Cleggmania still pretty strong then!
221 I know, it will take a few more days to see if that gets through, like to but i’m afraid i dont trust any of the polls at present, i wish i could but i cannot.
Tee Hee
journodave
Words and phrases I must not use during the Scottish debate: “parochial” “teuchter” “backwards” “west/east coast bias” “shortbread smuggler”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7103076.ece
211. I’m just having fun…
Populus Crosby probabilistic
Lab 261
Con 236
LD 121
SNP 8
PC 4
Oth 2
NI 13
Populus:
Con -4
Lab -5
LD +10
223, thanks, sam (and also Jonathan at 213).
Will YouGov show a shift? I hope they don’t wait until 10pm to tell us.
Well Populus is equally remarkable. Much more in tune with other polls of late, given AR always has Labour very low.
The ComRes may have spotted a trend or just be an outlier? Anyone know when the fieldwork for that was done?
richard dodd @214
Fired. Lab has no £££ left to pay them.
ITV doing a feature on the SNP with a voxpop from Glasgow. Hatchet job by the look of it. Like going to Henley to see how well Gordon is liked.
Con lead over Lab:
ComRes 9%
AR 9%
Populus 4%
Populus would mean the end of FPTP
Con 236
Lab 273
Lib Dem 110
UKPR
213. On that we have lost 4, Labour 5 and LD 10.
So Labour have lost more.
When does Mandy step in or does he think he can rely on UNS to save Labour’s bum?
196. RC. I love your lists. Funniest one so far. LD to win Central Devon! I will send a tenner to your nominated charity if that’s the result!
Populus = Labour miles ahead:
CON 236 seats (+38)
LAB 273 seats (-83)
LIB 110 seats (+48)
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/swing-calculator
217- Morris dancer
The article says “yesterday and this morning”
Com Res: Hung Parliament Tories 35 seats short. Populus: Hung parliament Labour 25 seats short.
Fantasy You Gov dismiss
Angus Who?????
237, it would, but you appear to have forgotten the Golden Rule, tim.
I wonder if Brown’s not fussed about dicking about those trapped overseas, as they may well be Tory voters.
232. YouGov’s out at 8pm apparently…
Very good poll for Clegg.
I do hope Clegg is going to pick up all that litter…
why is comRes out of line ?
They’ve resurfaced with the arrival of Populus. How amusing.
sam @244
Thanks sam.
easterross - that is a great gesture from ross county. I really hope they do well in the final.
One thing is for sure, the Tory bottom looks around 32/33 that looks pretty consistent since last Friday. Now just to find that ray of light to push it up.
Must say I’m amused by the red rosette trolls being blind to AR and ComRes but having 20/20 vision for Populus
242, if the results were 35, 26, 26 (Con leading) the Tories would get a stonking majority.
ComRes looks a bit weird to me. Are we sure that’s right?
Populus three-way marginals
Dumfriesshire Clydesdale and Tweeddale
Somerset North East
City of Chester
Brighton Kemptown
Hove
Milton Keynes North
Portsmouth North
Swindon South
Aberconwy
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokshire
Calder Valley
Lincoln
Westminster North
Nottingham South
Bedford
Ipswich
Luton South
Stevenage
Eltham
Hammersmith
Tooting
Bolton West
Sefton Central
Warrington South
Weaver Vale
Wirral South
Aberdeen North
Brighton Pavillion*
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
Bridgend
Delyn
Gower
Newport West
Coventry South
Newcastle under Lyme
Bradford West
Halifax
Brentford and Isleworth
Edinburgh East
Stirling*
Poplar and Limehouse*
Filton and Bradley Stoke
Derby North
Northampton North
Burnley
Pendle
Bristol North West
Colne Valley
*=4-way
Libdem gain from Con
Eastbourne
Guildford
Meon Valley
Newbury
Bournemouth West
Devon Central
Dorset West
Filton and Bradley Stoke
North Dorset
Torridge and West Devon
Totnes
Wells
Weston-Super-Mare
Ludlow
Solihull
Worcestershire West
Haltemprice and Howden
LibDem gain from Lab
Derby North
Leicester South
Northampton North
Norwich South
Watford
Brent Central
Ealing Central and Acton
Hampstead and Kilburn
Islington South and Finsbury
Blaydon
Durham City of
Burnley
Liverpool Wavertree
Oldham East and Saddleworth
Pendle
Rochdale
Aberdeen South
Dunfermline and West Fife
Edinburgh North and Leith
Edinburgh South
Glasgow North
Oxford East
Bristol North West
Swansea West
Birmingham Hall Green
Birmingham Hodge Hill
Bradford East
Colne Valley
Sheffield Central
Con gain from Lab
Brigg and Goole
Broxtowe
Cleethorpes
Corby
Derbyshire South
Gedling
High Peak
Leicestershire North West
Lincoln
Loughborough
Northampton South
Great Yarmouth
Harlow
South Basildon and East Thurrock
Battersea
Croydon Central
Bury North
City of Chester
Ribble South
Brighton Kemptown
Chatham and Alyesford
Crawley
Dartford
Gillingham and Rainham
Hastings and Rye
Hove
Milton Keynes North
Milton Keynes South
Portsmouth North
Dorset South
Stroud
Swindon South
Aberconwy
Cardiff North
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokshire
Vale of Glamorgan
Birmingham Edgbaston
Burton
Dudley South
Halesowen and Rowley Regis
Nuneaton
Redditch
Rugby
Stafford
Stourbridge
Tamworth
Warwick and Leamington Spa
Wolverhampton South West
Worcester
Calder Valley
Nats gain from Lab
Ochil and South Perthshire
Arfon
Ynys Mon
lowest winning share of the vote, Brighton Pavilion, 27.2%, Labour
250
Thats funny Gabble, I didn’t niotice you popping up to give seat probabilities for the two polls where Labour were 9 points behind.
240. Clegg has a touch of the Dan Snows about him in his piece-to-camera.
Good music choice too. Orbital?
253, we don’t have official confirmation, but Don has spoken, and in Don we trust.
Talk of Com Res being an absolute Outlier, I wonder why? Apparently Tory figure too high by 3%.Lib Dems and Labour too low. Ignore!
Two leads of nine, one of four, and Labour all but wiped out in one poll, and LAST in all three, indeed LAST in about seven polls in a row, I make it.
I’ll ‘ave some of that. A very encouraging night for the right.
This is starting to look horribly terminal for Labour.
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAYTOUSTUPIDSTUPIDLABOURINSECTS
Populus:
Con -4
Lab -5
LD +10
Fieldwork yesterday and today???
Wow.
The next debate is a very high stakes one. For them politicos and for us punters!
If Clegg wins it — as I expect him to do — everything seems possible.
Cf. Mike head-post.
Rod, no offence, but I’m finding these long fantasy lists based on pure speculation poll-by-poll just a tad, well, tiresome. As Devonloft says, Central Devon LD gain? Er, yeah right …!
Bubble deflating
Yes, I know, the polls show Nick Clegg’s TV moment has bungeed the Lib Dems upwards (although I gather numbers out later will show them stalling fast, to the benefit of the Tories). But I’m talking about the doorstep. I’ve spent the day talking to MPs and candidates in constituencies around the country, and while I get a range of opinions about where the Tories have gone wrong and what the outcome might be on May 6, there is a uniform response when I ask whether the Lib Dems are doing better out there: the answer appears to be ‘no’.
Voters seem to have watched the debate, been impressed by Nick Clegg as an individual, but that’s it. Their voting intentions have barely shifted. Conservative support is holding up. MPs canvassing in marginals today say they have not found evidence of switchers to the Lib Dems. One veteran says as yet there is no sign of a Lib Dem equivalent of the sudden surge for Labour in 1997. Part of this may be that the party does not have the resources – financial and human – to mount a national effort to capitalise on Mr Clegg’s debate success. But it may also turn out that the voters can tell the difference between a TV moment and a credible plan for government.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100035625/so-where-is-the-yellow-surge/
Populus.
Cameron = Hague.
Brown = Foot
Clegg = Lloyd George.
260. Cam to win debate. Regardless of Populus, we are seeing a clear move back to Cons. Labour in very serious trouble
Fleet Street resounds to just one gag today: every ash cloud has its silver lining. Tony Blair is marooned in the Middle East and won’t be plugging his memoirs at this week’s London Book Fair.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/cappuccinoculture/5928938/the-pepys-of-the-blair-years.thtml
Could the 35 be Lib Dems in Com Res, more likely.
My blood’s boiling again.
I’ll need one month on a beach after the election.
Seriously.
I don’t doubt that Don is reporting it correctly but Comres should definately be treated with caution until it is supported by other polls.
266. No way Con could go that low.
261. OK, I’ll do them less often…
240. Gabble - if that was the result based on the third based party winning the most seats I would be very disappointed if Nick Clegg did not try his best to do a deal with David Cameron based on an acceptance by the Tories that there should be a referendum on abandoning FPTP and introducing a new fair voting system.
266, no, not more likely. I’d say equally likely, except that Don has stated it’s 35 for Con.
263, reality:
Cameron = Scipio
Brown = Syphax
Clegg = Sophonisba
199- Mike Pence is another “keep your eye on him but don’t take him too seriously just yet” kind of guy. I have yet to be convinced that he has what it takes to run a major presidential campaign operation successfully, let alone doing so as a House member. If he were really so ambitious, I would have expected him to shoot for the Senate seat in Indiana as a stepping stone to the White House, something he passed up the chance to do. I see him more as a House lifer or a possible VP candidate.
As for Romney’s path to a primary victory, I just don’t see it. I agree that Palin, and probably several others, will fight over and splinter the right-wing true believers, but I don’t think Romney will be the center-right consensus that will emerge from the fight. Romney’s record as a Massachusetts version of a Republican, particularly in the aftermath of Obamacare, will provide more than enough ammunition to somebody like Pawlenty to discredit him in the eyes of mainstream Republicans. In the aftermath of McCain and the Tea Party movement, the party just won’t be able to stomach somebody like Romney leading them into the next presidential election.
Well this Labour “troll” believes both Comres and Populus are excellent pollsters.
I won’t give my opinion on Angus Reid as I don’t want to get banned…
One thing I note - isn’t it funny how everything has been turned on it’s head and posters here now get LESS partisan when polls come out, and kind of unite in “wow. What the **** is going on!” confusion instead.
What a great election.
Most of the poll methods seem designed to detect quite small changes in voter intention patterns quickly - by concentrating on the undecideds.
Methodologies then are changed by the polling organizations over time to reduce these immediate swings.
I am therefore convinced that the swing to LDs has been exaggerated. Listening to the vox pop on radio 4 pm prog in cheam / sutton it did not appear that anything had changed - people had decided votes.
While LD performance is up I think it is at the 27% level not 33% as is being described. This is not a criticism of the pollsters, merely that the methods they use seem to show up trends.
I would reduce trends by 1/2 the change in the poll ratings since the 2nd coming of clegg. So tories on 35 (37 - 4 /2), labour on 27 (31 - 8 /2) libs on 27 (20 + 14/2)
263 Clegg = Lloyd George
Nice to know that you think Clegg is invloved in shady deals and selling honours. Also interesting that you think he is going to split his party and go in to coalition with the Conservatives.
Salmond’s intervention is very, very interesting and suggests that a canny operator thinks there might be another 1910 on the cards. What if the Scott trust finally jumps ship? What if Plaid and Lucas follow suit?
How do the Lib Dems play this?
Go for Browns throat - keepers of the flame of the left
Continue to pray plague on all your houses - hope the bubble goes further.
Goes after Cameron - the old enemy.
My instinct is the party will have to decide very soon indeed.
“Bubble deflating”
?
255. Richar Tyndall
If you insist:
Angus Reid = Lib/Lab Majority:
CON 257 seats (+59)
LAB 210 seats (-146)
LIB 150 seats (+88)
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/swing-calculator
I think I’ll wait for the official ComRes figures following the ‘unweighted’ debacle.
268 Could just be the Com Res.
Seeing as it seems everyone knows about it.
277 Yellow Sub - easy peasy. Plague on both your houses. Real change. Inflate that bubble. Fire up the bandwagon, it’s time for change.
No brainer.
*278 - just wishful thinking from the tories on this site, I think Philippe .;)
This’ll be interesting.
CAA/NATS says the several BA planes now in the air heading for London cannot land.
*278 - just wishful thinking from the tories on this site, I think Philippe .;)
A crazy FPTP result opens the door to a deal between the two parties that want to get rid of FPTP, doesn’t it?…
And AV is fair, when looking at 2nd preferences, isn’t it?
The Tories are going to go the way of the dodo, aren’t they?
Just spoke to Nigel Farage. Told him to tell his guys to vote Tory, especially in the marginals. He said it wont matter, the Labour vote will collapse completely.
280, meant 278 not 268
“Could the 35 be Lib Dems in Com Res, more likely.”
If so, I’ll have to go see that chinese guy in my soi to buy a coupla sleeping pills.
I wonder…
even if we assume the government remains rubbish at bringing back the Volcano Vote [copyright MD Enterprises], they’re going to be filled with anti-Brown feeling. Those who make it back on their own, having spend a huge amount of time and money, will be even more anti-Brown.
I think the Volcano Vote will be a powerful tactical disadvantage to Labour, backing their enemies wherever they may be. Possibly different in Scotland, because the SNP are the party of government.
Is this the Strange Revenge of Iceland on Mister Brown for freezing the bank assets using anti-terror legislation?
271 Goupillion
Don’t you understand, as far as Labour are concerned the LDs are just there to prop up labour as when needed. All these *demands*, who do you think you are, get in your box, attack the tories and after the election give Gordon your full support.
277 YS
Option 2. Either of the others and you are taking sides, whether you like it or not. Playing the long game is what I would do.
Refardin Angus Reid. Does tonight’s poll we’ll be getting them daily from now on?
AR’s sole function is to keep Tory posters morale buoyant. I cannot see what other purpose does it serve.
How can it be so far out ?
285.
No
No
And finally,
No
Lab/LD coalition led by Another is winning the PB poll. Who’d have thought it?
286 Well you tell Farage unless UKIP gets their finger out they mind find themselves a lot further into Europe than they’d like if they don’t throw themselves in with the Conservatives, this is not the time to be chucking votes down the lav.
273. But for all Romney’s weakness on healthcare, governors like Palin and Pawlenty have similar issues on taking Obama’s stimulus money. Surely Romney can make hay with that?
292 No. It’s to upset Labour.
*** ANECDOTE ALERT ***
For those posters who are familiar with the less affluent parts of Edinburgh South West, report from a local resident…
“The Tories is working awfy hard in Clovie”
I am reliably informed that during his losing campaign in 1997, Sir Malcolm was in the constituency on a daily basis despite being a serving cabinet minister. Darling’s determined absence is perplexing. Confidence? Hubris? Despair?
Does anyone know the political leanings of the potential new crop of LibDem MPs? If Clegg does gain a large number of seats, what will the broad makeup of his party be – will they be mostly stereotypical bear-sporters, or more in their leader’s mould? How will this affect the coalition options in the event of a hung parliament?
292 and other idiot bots
Comres is better for the tories than AR. Idiots.
276 - Perhaps Cameron = Hague was too cruel.
Would Cameron have supported Lord Archer so heartily?
Guess he’s promoted Hague, so maybe.
292: “How can it be so far out ?”
Who says it is? Until the results are in, they’re all ‘out’.
And as has been pointed out many times before, they have a remarkably accurate track record in Canada.
293. Anyhow, Mandelson is a genius, since the chance of him pulling it off are better than evens, imho…
This poll firmly underlines the reality here - the debate push was not an X factor. It wasn’t a Clegg looking young factor. It was a plausibility factor, which liberated the Lib Dem electorate by convincing people that a vote for the lib dems was not a wasted vote. What is critical for Clegg is convince people that he stands a chance, and so negative attacks on the LD by the other parties are likely to backfire.
294, we don’t know which poll is most accurate, Surbiton.
Much as I would prefer a Tory procession to an 80 seat victory, it is impossible to deny that this election is the most dramatic of recent times. Could it be the shot in the arm British democracy needs?
274
Ash, this is something I was wondering the other day. Since I don’t support any of the parties but just want to see Brown out I tend to take a relatively laid back attitude about the parties themselves.
But that led me to thinking, do the polls actually reflect reality in any way what so ever at any timne except maybe the last few days before the actual election. We always sit there and look at the polls and say, well, Yougov or ICM or some other were closest to the actual result with their last poll, so they were probably accurate the rest of the time as well. But isn’t it possible that these are just numbers, not much better than random selections whiich at best might get the order of the parties right if there is a clear differential but which otherwise are pretty much useless.
I only ask this because people do tend to get very excited about what they mean and dig deep into posisble reasons for relatively minor changes and I wonder if, in the end it is mostly just noise.
Rod and some of the other betting bods here probably just had a heart attack and will be setting up the stake as I type to have me burnt as a heretic.
285. RodCrosby:
“A crazy FPTP result opens the door to a deal between the two parties that want to get rid of FPTP, doesn’t it?…”
The irony is truly amazing. The demise of FPTP shaped by FPTP.
The FPTP is dead….long live the FPTP.
Someone better tell Nick Robinson about ComRes before 10pm.
His whole report on BBC1 6pm news was about how Conservatives are in huge trouble. He’s 24 hours out of date.
“As for Romney’s path to a primary victory, I just don’t see it.”
–S&S
I agree.
Wanna double-down Socrates?
Re Devon Central, can somebody explain to me why the idea of it being an LD win is a joke? They are best price 2/1.
Not trying to make a point, just curious.
302 Does anyome know what the broad make up of Clegg’s MPs would be?
Predominantly white, male and middle class.
That’s change for you!!
212 Easterross
Thanks,I was thinking that way and definitely will have a little cover on the tory.
I still need best option for the largest wager I can get on tory 100+. I registered and placed my first bet today with ladbrokes on-line,pretty straightforward,presumably all the rest are as well (PP etc.).
Begg was dreadful for a long time (years)and not particularly popular when Blair was PM,a lot of my friends at The Short Mile despised her and would vote tactically to get rid of her never mind Brown. To be fair she improved a bit, but not much help or influence to help Aberdeen residents as I was for over 25 years.
196 Rod not so sure about your definition of a 3-way marginal
Dumfriesshire etc
Tories 36%
Labour 32%
LibDem 20%
SNP 9%
Dumfries and Galloway
Labour 41%
Tories 35%
SNP 12%
LibDems 8%
North Ayrshire and Arran
Labour 43%
Tories 18+%
SNP 18%
LibDem 16%
Lanark and Hamilton East
Labour 43%
SNP 18%
Tories 13%
LibDem 13%
Paisley and Renfrewshire N
Labour 46%
SNP 19%
LibDem 18%
Tory 9%
Renfrewshire East
Labour 44%
Tories 30%
LibDem 18%
SNP 7%
I agree Aberdeen North and Edinburgh East can be described as 3-way marginals but certainly not any of the above seats, especially that given in 2 of them the LibDems were 4th.
310, didn’t watch it, but Toenails being incompetent during a GE is not too surprising.
308 Well its one or the other.
1 : the shot in the arm British democracy needs?
or
2 : the f”"k up no one needs to watch the economy flush down the lav.
As of now, I don’t know.
What would Labour’s poll numbers be if James Purcell was leader?
320. Purcell = Purnell
308 MD
well this time last week we were moaning this was the most boring election. Now, as the Chinese say, be careful what you wish for you might just get it !
281,290. You may well be right.
MEMO TO COWLEY STREET. spend tonight war gaming how ” a public conversation” with Salmond/that Plaid bloke who always impresses me but who name I have forgotten and in extremis Lucas would work.
I’m sketching in my head.
1. They slag you off a bit
2. you slag them off a bit
3. You both agree on ” change ” and then do how crap the old system is
4. They point out the seats they aren’t standing in but mention one key policy for those that they are
5. you wish *everyone * should vote Lib dem but of course everyone will make there own choice.
6. You both look mildly disgusted with each other on the way out but wink for the cameras.
Clegg gets tactical votes looks non tribal, they get to reflect in the Cleggasm.
The venue needs to be non political and conversational. A chip shop in Brighton/edinburgh/some where welsh.
It could all go tits up if it looks like you are talking to the “little people” but might be worth having on the back of a fag packet if the polls stay this close.
298 Interesting and Lib Dems unlikely to do much here because of the mess they have made of running Edinburgh with the SNP and because they will be focusing their resources on South and (possibly) North and Leith.
308. This is the nub. People don’t give a toss who “wins” - they just want change. But the kind of CHANGE that is revolutionary and irrevocable…
If the LibDems can convince people they are the catalyst, whatever their policies, that change will happen.
320: “What would Labour’s poll numbers be if James Purcell was leader?”
Who he
296- I don’t think the issue of taking stimulus money will connect with any but a handful of intense libertarian types. Most Republicans generally accept the notion that if the money was going to be spent anyway, it wasn’t unreasonable for a governor to take some of it to help their own state (and I don’t think people would believe Romney if he tried to argue that he wouldn’t have taken the money if he had still been a governor at the time).
The Romneycare/Obamacare argument would be much more devastating politically. It is an issue that can unite nearly the entire GOP base against Romney. It destroys his credibility as a real conservative. It strikes a very raw nerve these days. And it segues into the biggest overarching argument against Romney: that he’s a phony flip-flopper.
ComRes gives Lib/Lab joint seats as insufficient for majority coalition.
Only coalition that would stand is Tory/Lib.
Abysmal polls across the boards for Labour. Angus Reid is quite close to seeing Labour become the third party and the Lib-Dems the official opposition! :O
Poor polls for the Tories as well, though the 35% on ComRes is comforting.
318
“during a GE” = surplus to requirements…
Looks like the BA planes are being turned back at the Isle of Man.
3 flights, denver, vancouver, calgary.
Looks like they may end up in Belfast.
320. Below 15 ?
317. I agree with this Easterross. I also think that the Lib Dem vote in Scotland was so high the last time they are unlikely to go up much in share of the vote if at all - especially as they do not have a Scottish leader this time.
317. Have you seen the polls lately? The 2005 results are as relevant as the dead sea scrolls…
A few of the North East seats get mention in this write-up:
http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/north-east-news/todays-evening-chronicle/2010/04/19/liberal-democrats-hoping-to-seize-labour-s-hold-72703-26270613/
RodCrosby @325:
Is there some sort of ‘Iron Law’ decreeing this, Rod? Or at least some sort of statistical support for your theory from the last 65 years of elections?
BA has turned its 26 UK-bound planes back. (Sky)
325: “This is the nub. People don’t give a toss who “wins” - they just want change. But the kind of CHANGE that is revolutionary and irrevocable…”
Really? Only days ago it was a perfectly determined progression to a Labour government returned by acclamation, courtesy of ’swingback’.
Guess that was all washed away in the showers and burnt to a cinder in the ovens.
322, I wasn’t moaning. I’m the sort who is quite happy with a dull, predictable, crushing victory. Thrill of the chase is tosh. I want to win. By miles. With ease.
That’s why I build giant artillery guns and armies of enormo-haddock.
Easterross
If Cameron is in Torquay tomorrow with Marcus,I’ll pop along and ‘feel’ the mood.I think I might have a max on Marcus as well tonight.He does have a tough fight on his hands here as Adrian Sanders(libDem sitting MP)is popular and the tory mayor is pretty well despised by a lot of people here.
334. and swingback.
There are 26 BA flights on their way HERE and are going to be rerouted to MADRID etc unless NATS pack it in - Willie Walsh is attempting to bust the flying ban.
What a ballsy chappy. He did a 3 hr test flight over the weekend too - not someone who’s scared of a risk!
“3. If so what should it say?”
The second debate is foreign policy.
Iraq is foreign policy.
Iraq is also anti-politics because “Iraq” now means mostly **** political class lying to us and giving us the mushroom treatment.
Could go for a big thing like referendum before government allowed to go to war to tie the two strands together.
Rod Crosby : “If the LibDems can convince people they are the catalyst, whatever their policies, that change will happen.”
The debates offer a good platform for that!
It will be interesting to see if the Comres rumours are correct. A 9% Tory lead is hardly a ‘humdinger’ or ’sensational’ poll, given the volatility we have seen in the past few days. It will also go against the general trend. Not all of the Twitter rumours in the past have been true and Andrew Hawkins latest Tweet seems to be denying the reports. Be much more interesting if all the parties were level pegging!
“IMF in radical international bank tax plan” :
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8633455.stm
342 - But if one of thoes planes goes down.. its a big gamble.
http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/2010/04/20/nick-cleggs-lobbying-background-second-home-his-banker-dad/
314. I do apologise Peter. I’m not in Devon Central and had just assumed it was safe blue. As you indicate, it most certainly ISN’T! In fact it’s even more shaky for the Cons than Torridge and West Devon. It will go on a 1.8% swing.
Mea culpa.
cathynewman
C4News FactCheck Exclusive: Nick Clegg’s stint as a partner at a European lobbyist http://bit.ly/cHeK9j
They could land in Belfast or Shannon, the runway are I think long enough, but it’s a bit of a gamble. If they are low on fuel they will declare an emergency, they certainly aren’t going back across the atlantic and I suspect they won’t make madrid - 1 1/2 hours flying.
Angus reid result tonight if this happened I’m sure this would lead to a Conservative majority. What has happened to Labour vote soon they will be on 19% at this rate.
Due to the unique method of funding…everyone’s favourite state owned broadcaster has expenses problem.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/bbc/7610499/Three-BBC-executives-spend-12000-on-taxis.html
nice work if you can get it.
343, Iraq’s effect is severely diluted. It’s started and finished, and Afghanistan, with more deaths and difficulty, continues. Oh, and the Lib Dems backed it.
All leaders have difficulties with foreign issues, but Brown’s are the worst. Helicopters. Funding cuts. Lies to Chilcot. Unnecessary deaths. Clegg’s pro-euro stance (despite Davey lying on national television about it) won’t go down well.
The Volcano Vote will hurt Brown too.
Adonis = Grayling but without the easy charm and charisma and the underlying air of steely competence.
Brown has finally and irrevocably lost it, assurances about get to Madrid/the channel ports and you are home and dry are pure fantasy. No doubt has the marching songs of his ancestors in his ears
Wi’ a hundred coaches, an’ a’, an’ a’,
Wi’ a hundred coaches, an’ a’, an’ a’,
We’ll up an’ gie them a blaw, a blaw
Wi’ a hundred coaches, an’ a’, an’ a’.
Airlines flatly reneging on duty to provide for stranded passengers.
And no mention yet of the economic consequences of losing 100% of our international tourist business. This would be a government killer if it wasn’t already dead.
345 Rule of thumb a twitter rumour is nearly always the opposite from what it actually is.
336. Examine closely what happened between 1922 and 1924. That’s the closest to where we are at now, except the Tories look likely to get the wooden spoon…
343: I wasn’t one of them, but I seem to remember there was a majority for going into Iraq before the invasion. Of course, you can’t find any of these people now.
New thread up
New thread now up - Populus. Thanks
re - cathy newman
wow - what a bizarrely non-neutral tone for a news report. almost sounds like part of a tory/labour PPB:
..”nick clegg and his banker dad…how “new” can he be ?..”
bizarre.
314.PtP. Peter, Devon Central includes the most affluent areas of Devon (other than parts of East Devon) such as Bovey Tracey, Moretenhampstead, Kenn Valley, Exminster (slightly biased), Chudleigh, Exe Valley, Okehampton and rural Crediton. There is not one LD sign up and thousands of Con boards. I drive through the area every day.The LDs have given it up as they are fighting much closer battles in Torbay and Newton Abbot. Mel Stride is the PPC and is very popular having been on the scene for a number of years.
My family thought the Liberal Dems broadcast was very good apart from satirising the paper waste
If that is all C4 had, why did they big it up? Politician worked for a lobbyist, lives in a nice house and didn’t choose his parents. Yawn. God I hate politics sometimes.
308. “This poll firmly underlines the reality here - the debate push was not an X factor. It wasn’t a Clegg looking young factor. It was a plausibility factor, which liberated the Lib Dem electorate by convincing people that a vote for the lib dems was not a wasted vote. What is critical for Clegg is convince people that he stands a chance, and so negative attacks on the LD by the other parties are likely to backfire.”
This is palpable absurdity in the extreme. Gaining 10-12 percentage points, overnight, on the back of a slick TV performance, is the very definition of IMPLAUSABILITY. Their policies don’t add up - in fact they are downright dangerous - so what else has given them this boost? Change agenda? Don’t make me laugh.
I’ll eat my hat, coat, shoes, my four Persian cats (bless ‘em), my expensive Italian leather sofa, and anything else, if the illiberals get anywhere near the fanatsy figures being polled at the moment.
There is one BA plane circling above shannon, one above isle of man, one above liverpool. This is going to get nasty. NATS / CAA must give way, the pilots can land on visual and gps, it’s good visual conditions and there’s nothing the CAA can do about it (apart from scramble fighters to shoot the planes down)
323 Yellow Submarine
Mr Submarine, you have gone mad and are now caught up in the nonsense. Step back. You know as well as I do you can only pick up share now and maximise seats from your 90 targets. To maximise on the buzz you neede a different plan for this election. I’m afraid I think of the LDs as the biggest losers in this election since if you had been braver the support you see now would be consolidated support rather than so brittle. If it helps I got the home for the support wrong as I thought “others” would be the big beneficiaries rather than the LDs ( you weren’t interested ), of course the upside to that is no BNP surge.
However all is not lost! You can still make real and lasting gains, you just need to move to post election strategy rather than trying to change something which is now largely beyond your control.
I don’t think though you will like what I recommmend to you next !
Labour are Sub-Foot.
362. Notional Conservative majority in Devon Central 2400 votes. Hardly insurmountable.
361. Someone has fed Mandy some of Harry Potter’s blood. He’s back.
349 Thanx John. No prob.
I backed the LDs there at 5/1 so was naturally concerned!
310 Richard Tyndall - “But isn’t it possible that these are just numbers, not much better than random selections”
No, they are definitely better than that. There are very sophisticated methods and calculations going on with MOST of the pollsters (*cough* don’t want to get banned *cough*). It’s in their interests to be accurate, and MOST pollsters know how to sample and what to do to raw numbers to produce an accurate picture.
It’s the electorate that is all over the place, not the pollsters.
Why is Cameron wearing a tight white shirt with his sleeves rolled up tight to his elbows. It looks like he was dressed by his Mum.
Paul B : “Angus reid result tonight if this happened I’m sure this would lead to a Conservative majority. What has happened to Labour vote soon they will be on 19% at this rate.”
But it looks as if Lib Dems are benefitting from Labour’s collapse, not the Tories. Tory’s vote appear to be stable, but the influx of new LD voters reduce their % share.
I agree though : i wouldn’t bet against Labour polling sub-20s after the next debates.
As MrJones implied, *Iraq* can remains a lot of folks why they want to change the system.
I would suggest that the Tories need to just sit very tight and keep hammering hard. Whilst a hung parliament looks very hard to beat on the Lib Dem figures, the apparent Labour collapse, we assume caused by Labour voters hoping to keep the Tories out may actually not benefit the Lib Dems as much as hoped depending on how that defection pans out in terms of the seats where its pronounced.
If even 26% percent of voters stay Labour in a lot of the marginals its going to kill any chance of the Lib Dems stopping the Tories in a lot of seats.
I would like to see Labour fall below 20%, then are truely going to be wiped out for good. Happy days ….. an English Parliament will now be on its way thanks to the Lib Dems and Tories.
If Labour really do crash big time in England, I wonder if the the successful Scottish Labour Party would do pacts with the Lib Dems across the UK or would they moved towards Scottish independence?
Sorry if I’ve missed the discussion on this point, but why is PB spending its money on national opinion polls? Aren’t there enough of them already? It would be nice to have a few constituency polls instead.
Yokel @375
Yokel, I think you are totally on the money with that assessment.
Been out most of the day, has there been a Scottish YouGov poll as alluded to by Mundell in the Scottish debate tonight?
#35 “It’s a leading question. Safe to ignore.
Only worthwhile if the same question is asked 3 times naming the 3 parties in turn.”
Well no, it puts the Lib Dems in the same category as the other two. Both Lab and the Tories do have a significant chance of winning, if much more so in the latter case. It is safe to ignore because (a) they don’t, so it’s merely an opinion, not an indicator of the result, and (b) at the moment there’s probably some sort of bandwagon effect.
Does remind me of John Cleese’s 1997 ad