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On Vince’s big day he’s 2/1 favourite to leave first

September 22nd, 2010
First cabinet member to leave Party Price
Vince Cable Lib Dem 2/1
William Hague Conservative 4/1
Liam Fox Conservative 5/1
Chris Huhne Lib Dem 8/1
Iain Duncan Smith Conservative 8/1
Theresa May Conservative 14/1
Michael Gove Conservative 16/1
Andrew Lansley Conservative 16/1
Michael Moore Lib Dem 20/1
Andrew Mitchell Conservative 20/1
Nick Clegg Lib Dem 20/1
Owen Paterson Conservative 25/1
Danny Alexander Lib Dem 25/1
Jeremy Hunt Conservative 25/1
Kenneth Clarke Conservative 25/1
Eric Pickles Conservative 25/1
Caroline Spelman Conservative 25/1
Cheryl Gillan Conservative 25/1
Lord Strathclyde Conservative 25/1
Baroness Warsi Conservative 25/1
George Osborne Conservative 25/1
Philip Hammond Conservative 33/1
David Cameron Conservative 50/1

Is it all down to the Coalition Crack Hunters?

With all the focus being on the Lib Dem conference in Liverpool Ladbrokes have opened a “next cabinet minister to leave” market. The prices are above and, as can be seen, the favourite, at 2/1, is Vince Cable whose speech will be today’s conference highlight.

Newsnight devoted half its programme last night to a report that the business secretary is “calling for the end of capitalism”.

Inevitably the media pack at the Liverpool conferences have been looking for “coalition crack” stories and Vince’s general demeanour is that he never appears to be happy. Mind you he was like that before the election.

He’s also well known and is, of course, one of those Lib Dem politicians who started as Labour, switched to the newly formed SDP in the early 80s and now find themselves in a Tory-led government.

He might well be the first to leave but he’s certainly not worth his 2/1 favourite status. This is one market I’m avoiding because in the absence something personally untoward for one of them I can’t see any changes in the near future. Cameron and Clegg will surely stick with their initial team until next summer at the earliest?

Mike Smithson