Have a good evebning

This is our regular open thread to take PBers through the night.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Ladbrokes have now put a new market up on the next cabinet exit following the departure today of Chris Huhne.

It is important to note that if more than one minister went on the same day, as could be the case with a re-shuffle, then the dead heat rules would apply. If I am reading this correctly then if, say, three went on the same day your winnings would be a third of the odds you bet at. You stakes would be returned intact.

Other bookies might do this differently.

So where’s the value. Who is next in line to go?

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Joey Jones at LibDem retreat in Eastbourne confirms that Chris Huhne will be charge. Huhne expected to resign from Cabinet

— adamboulton (@adamboultonSKY) February 3, 2012

Huhne speeding D-Day. I still love the fact that Aussie slang for a fast driver is…. ‘a hoon’. f24.my/xItDqA

— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) February 3, 2012

Huhne and his ex wife, Vicky, due to be told the news in 10 minutes. Will it leak out?

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) February 3, 2012

Bookies’ odds on Huhne being next leader have lengthened to 4/1. But if he cleared today, that cd be good value. Assuming he keeps Eastleigh

— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) February 3, 2012

The DPP press conference is at 10am

My selection of this evening’s tweets:-

Just 41 people contributed 25% of Romney’s campaign war chest…pwire.at/xSJbs1

— Taegan Goddard (@politicalwire) February 2, 2012

#GOP: Romney 31% / Gingrich 25% / Santorum 17% / Paul 12% / Other 2% / Unsure 13% (Gallup nat’l tracking, Jan 28-Feb 1) j.mp/nEDXyw

— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) February 2, 2012

Clegg is facing a potential dilemma over Chris Huhne, says James Forsyth: spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/76…

— Coffee House (@Spectator_CH) February 2, 2012

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

What can we read into this afternoon’s news?

In a discussion over a drink at the weekend my lawyer friend who’s had a career as a prosecutor suggested that one of the major considerations for the CPS over the Huhne case would be whether it would be possible to hold a fair trial.

This has gone on for such a long time and received a massive amount of publicity that an initial consideration would be whether it would be possible to find a jury.

The normal process is that once a charge has been made then the media are put under massive constraints not to publish anything that could be prejudicial.

So how does that fit with the DPP making a statement to camera at 10am tomorrow morning? The very process of letting it be known this afternoon that the statement will be issued tomorrow raises the ante.

Certainly the DPP will be aware that Huhne’s lawyers will be looking for anything to impede the process if a charge is made.

So I might be completely wrong but I would be put chance of a charge at no more than 40%.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Which of the above is the fairest?

Michael Ashcroft has funded some polling (I assume by Populus) on the way that changing the words in the Scottish referendum can change the response.

The overall sample size of 3,090 was split randomly into three and one of the options for the different wording was put to each. Fieldwork was carried out between 26 and 31 January 2012. Results were weighted to be representative of all adults in Scotland.

Clearly suggesting that the change would involve leaving the UK has a big impact and no doubt London would like that to feature in some form.

The Electoral Commission will play a big part in this and I’m hoping to have an article written by a former senior official there in the next day or so.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

My selection of this evening’s tweets:-

BBC must’ve run this story as a favour to Tories – 7-child family needing >£26k benefits spends £100/wk on fags & booze bbc.co.uk/news/uk-168121…

— Greg Callus (@Morus1516) February 1, 2012

Forfeiture committee said it couldn’t strip Fred of his ‘K’ in 2009 bit.ly/zes6ZR

— Gary Gibbon’s Blog (@GaryGibbonBlog) February 1, 2012

12 LibDem bedroom tax rebels:Brooke, crockhart, George, hancock, leech, rogerson,mulholl, Russell, sanders, swales, ward, wllms

— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) February 1, 2012

Update 1st Feb – Labour lead on 2 – Latest YouGov/Sun results 1st Feb CON 38%, LAB 40%, LD 8%; APP -22 y-g.co/xxftM9 #UkPolitics

— YouGov (@YouGov) February 1, 2012

Have a good night in the cafe.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Are his commons performances restoring confidence?

Less than a fortnight ago Ed Miliband’s future as LAB leader seemed very much in doubt. William Hills took some big bets and concluded that the incumbent was a gonner. The price against Ed not surviving until the general election moved in to 8/11 and you could have got evens on him staying there.

Things have changed rapidly. He did okay at PMQs last week and performed very well in response to Cameron’s commons EU statement.

It was noticeable at PMQs today how his best-benchers seemed to get behind him more. Ed has cut “the outrage” and has become quiet, considered and gives the impression of being more measured.

His new style contrasted with Cameron’s floundering and at times the PM looked mediocre.

No doubt this will have given a lot of cheer to his party and the Balls’ family plan to replace him will have to be put on hold.

That Hills bet at evens against him surviving to the general election is no longer available.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

After his Florida thumping Newt says he staying

As expected Mitt Romney won Florida overnight with a fourteen point victory. It was a huge result for the ex-governor of Massachusetts and one, surely, that makes it even more likely that he’ll be the nominee.

But Newt was defiant an hour or so ago. The big message, as seen in the posters in the pictures, was “46 States To Go” – a statement that suggests that he is going to stick with it right through to the party convention in August.

Gingrich might say there are 46 states to go but next Tuesday, in Missouri, his name does not appear on the ballot because he failed to get enough signatures to satisfy the requirements. It’s the same in Virginia in March where an organisational failure means he’ll miss that one as well.

For the hard fact is that only Romney has the organisation and the massive resources to fight all the way.

Everybody talks about momentum in primary campaigns – but the one big characteristic of the 2012 race is that it doesn’t seem to matter so much this year.

Santorum had a great result in Iowa but that was no help in New Hampshire. Romney had a big victory in New Hampshire but then went down badly in South Carolina. Now Newt appears to have got no bounce from the South Carolina.

Romney won Florida by making Newt Gingrich the issue and executing that in a devastating manner. Is that going to be the pattern right through until the convention? If so there’s going to be a lot more dirt thrown at him in retaliation which can only help Obama’s re-election effort.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

LDs up 3 while LAB regain the lead

There’s a new ComRes telephone poll out for the Independent and the figures, with changes on the last phone poll from the firm are in the chart above.

Not much change except the Lib Dem share moving up 3 to 14%.

The non-VI questions all follow ComRes’s standard pattern of making a statement and then asking whether respondents agree or not. I loathe this approach but it is all we’ve got

The pollsters finds that Most people still blame Labour for Britain’s economic woes. Asked whether the Coalition is more to blame than the previous Labour Government for the current state of the economy 26% agree while 62% disagree. Amongst LAB voters 48% think the Coalition is more to blame but a surprisingly high proportion 42% disagrees.

Asked whether they trust Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne to make the right decisions on the economy, the response was 35% to 55% disagreeing – a net “economic trust” rating of minus 20 points.

LAB’s position is much worse. Only 24% trust Mr Miliband and Mr Balls to make the right decisions on the economy, while 65% don’t – a net rating of minus 41. Amongst LAB supporters 42% do not trust the party leader and Shadow Chancellor to make the right decisions, while 51% do.

And so to Florida

Voting has been taking place all day in the four state in the 2012 primary season. The polls close at 8pm 0100 UK time when we should get exit poll projections. The big question is the size of Romney’s victory.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

How big will Mitt win by tonight?

It is extraordinary that only nine days ago Newt had a big lead in Florida and looked all set to take a second successive state. As we all know it hasn’t actually happened like that and if some polls are right Mitt will win with a double digit lead

Well after facing probably the biggest onslaught of negative advertising ever in a primary and having two mediocre debate performances the outlook for the ex-house speaker does not look good. Mitt has outspent him by a factor of about seven and his numbers have slipped.

Expect to hear claims that Mitt is using the vast financial resources at his disposal to buy the presidency.

But how far will Newt be behind? That’s one of the more interesting betting markets. Betfair have three options and I’ve got a small bet on at about 6/4 that Mitt’s margin will be under 12.5%.

The bet might add a little excitement to what seems a pretty boring night.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

NO voters say they are less likely to change their mind

A new telephone poll of Scottish voters by Ipsos-MORI for the Times puts support for independence at 39% – which is just one point up on the firm’s last poll in December.

The question that was put was the one proposed last week by Alex Salmond – “Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?” and which has caused some controversy.

In the December poll MORI asked those sampled if they “agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to enable Scotland to become an independent country, which is no longer part of the UK”.

In the last poll MORI found 57% supporting the union while this latest survey has it at 50%. So it maybe that the new proposed wording does have an impact there.

Where Alex Salmond appears to have a challenge is in winning over pro-union voters. According to the poll they say they are less likely to change their mind.

A total of 82 per cent of of those opposed to independence said they were definite in their view compared to 69% for the other side.

The firm has a good recent record in Scotland. Last May its final Holyrood survey proved to be the most accurate of all the pollsters covering that election.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Welcome and join tonight’s big political conversation

Here are a couple of tweets from with the past half hour.

Speculation in Brussels that Cam is delayed because he is having to clear his lines with Clegg

— Tim Shipman (Mail) (@ShippersUnbound) January 30, 2012

Santorum and Gingrich both beat Romney 1 on 1 in Ohio and Missouri. One will have to drop out if Mitt’s going to be stopped

— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) January 30, 2012

Have a good evening.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Is he in danger of losing losing the E-petition war?

Back in the summer Guido launched a campaign to get capital punishment restored for certain cases of serious murder and he set up a petition on the Number 10 e-petitions site.

The aim was to reach the threshold of 100,000 within six months so it would become eligible to be debated in the commons.

His move received a fair bit of attention in the media and also prompted a rival petition from those wanting the current ban on capital punishment to be retained.

Alas time is running out. The total has to reach 100,000 by the weekend for then it becomes time expired and there’s still some way to go.

As can seen from the chart the total of 26,283 is somewhat under the required number. Guido has made up some ground on the “retain the ban” initiative but the big number looks set to defeat both.

The lesson from this is that it’s mighty difficult using the e-petition scheme to get on the parliamentary agenda. If an issue such as capital punishment promoted by a popular blog and parts of the national media cannot do it then very little can.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Should the franchise be extended?

With suggestions from the SNP that the franchise should be extended to 16 year olds in the referendum there was a good article over the weekend by Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University.

He sifts through what polling there is and concludes “…we cannot presume that the opinions of younger people on independence are in fact particularly distinctive at all.”

Curtice goes on:“…But whatever their views, 16 and 17-year-olds can only possibly make a difference if they actually cast a vote in the referendum. In practice, most would not do so.

Many young people lack the motivation to vote. The SNP gave the vote to 16 and 17-year-olds in two recent health board elections. Even amongst all voters, the turnout in those elections was abysmal – 23 per cent in Dumfries & Galloway and just 14 per cent in Fife. But amongst those aged 16 and 17 who managed to get their names on the register, the turnout was even worse – just 13 per cent and 7 per cent respectively..”

Those figures themselves could over-state the level of involvement because many 16/17 year olds did not get themselves registered.

The experience of the 2010 general election was that the further you went down the age groups the lower the turnout rate. Young women were markedly less likely to turn out than young men. This was produced by Ipsos-MORI shortly after the election.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Some ugly polls for Gingrich this morning. Our forecast has Romney +13 in Florida, 95% chance of winning. nyti.ms/ywKYEp

— Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) January 29, 2012

Last Sunday he was 8% ahead

With Florida going into its final day of campaigning tomorrow it looks pretty certain that Mitt Romney will chalk up his second victory which should, surely, provide him with a solid platform to go forward.

Nate Silver has produced his latest forecast – 95% chance of a Romney victory. A week ago Nate’s prediction was that it was 75% chance for Newt.

That’s how the betting markets see it. He’s 1/25 to win on Tuesday and about 1/7 to win the nomination.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

And Miliband moves up from last week’s record low

This week’s leader ratings from YouGov are just out and all three main party leaders see improvements on a week ago.

Camerons “Well/Badly” figures are 46/47 making a net minus 1. Last week it was minus 3. Ed Miliband is on 20/68 which is a net minus 48 compared to 53 last weekend. The improvement is still not enough to be scoring better than Nick Clegg who has had the best week of all following his speech on tax. He has gone from 21/71 last week to 26/64 today. So a net change of plus 12.

Clegg’s tax speech, which was widely covered and pretty well received, raised questions of whether he was pre-empting Osborne’s budget.

Quite what went on within the coalition we don’t know but it’s clear that we are seeing a specific effort on policy differentiation from the yellow team.

The last time that Clegg had better YouGov ratings than today’s was last March just after his party’s Spring Conference when the planned NHS changes were centre stage.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

The big news today, of course, has been that the chairman of RBS, Sir Philip Hampton has given up a £1.4m shares bonus due next month.

This will probably end the row which has caused problems for both government and opposition.

Meanwhile it costs nothing to join tonight’s conversation in the PB NightHawks cafe.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Mitt up by around 10 points on the first round of calls for our Florida poll…this one may end up being a snooze

— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) January 28, 2012

Santorum has the best favorability numbers out of all the candidates in Florida but still not picking up much support

— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) January 28, 2012

Bc he’s so well liked everywhere I think Santorum would actually be biggest long term threat to Mitt, but Newt would have to get out soon

— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) January 28, 2012

But Santorum leads on “favourability”

The leading US telephone pollster that uses live interviewers, Public Policy Polling, regularly sends our snippets on how its fieldwork is going, well before the poll is closed and the numbers are released. Above is the latest on its Florida survey which will continue until Monday.

A interesting element is the high favourability numbers coming for Santorum though in this latest state race things don’t look good.

Romney is a very tight tight odds-on favourite to win Florida – currently 1/11 with Betfair.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Could Dave seal the first Tory working majority since 1987?

One market sadly missing at the moment that on which punters can predict how many seats a party will win at the next election. Before 2010, odds could be had both on the exchanges and with bookies, and punters could also buy and sell seats on the now defunct Spreadfair.

That’s a shame because there’s a great deal of uncertainty about what might happen in 2015 – or perhaps earlier – and where there is uncertainty there is opportunity.

There is considerable doubt about whether at least two of the current three main party leaders will last the course of this parliament, there is doubt about the future course of the domestic and international economy, there is doubt about the parliamentary boundaries for the next election and even of how many seats there will be. That should lead to a wide range of possible outcomes and hence, longish odds if the seat ranges offered are not too broad.

The value, as always, is in backing the bets where the odds offered exceed the true likelihood. That’s why odds of 16/1 or more for a 100+ Tory majority should be attractive. That outcome sounds unlikely – and indeed it is – but it’s probably rather less unlikely than it appears at first glance.

For one thing, the Conservatives are not all that far off it now anyway. If the boundary review goes through as currently proposed, or something like it, then the Tories will only need about fifty gains to rack up a three-figure majority.

That’s only about half the number of gains made at the 2010 election. Of course, each successive gain gets harder but there were several ‘should haves’ that were missed last time round (though that’s true of all parties), and the boundary review should lessen the effect of incumbency, helping whoever is ahead in the polls.

For another, parties often make gains the first time they go to the country after taking office. It happened in 1955 (and again in 1959) for the Conservatives, in 1966 for Labour who repeated the trick in the second 1974 election (though seven months was hardly a true parliament), and in 1983. Blair didn’t quite lead Labour to an even bigger win in 2001 but Labour still won a landslide. More recently, the SNP have done it in Scotland.

Obviously, each case is different and this time the fact that two parties are in government makes it especially so, but an underlying factor for all of these is that five years is long enough to establish competence (or not), but not long enough for an electorate to get bored of a government or – perhaps – for an opposition to refresh itself.

There’d also need to be a substantial improvement in the Tories’ polling to get anywhere near a landslide. At the moment, the polls would have Labour with most seats. At the moment, however, is mid-term and the election is not for more than three years. How they move between now and then will depend on both delivery in office and the relative ratings of the two front benches and in particular the two leaders, something many may not really focus on until far nearer the day.

Another big question hangs over the Lib Dems. If the Tories could take back many of the seats they lost to the yellow team in and since 1997, that could add several dozen to a majority in a good year. The national polls suggest that’s quite possible on a UNS, though shifting entrenched Lib Dems on the ground is often a more difficult job. Even so, retaining Labour tactical support will be a tough ask for Clegg or his successor.

None of this is to say that a Tory landslide is likely. It’s not – which is why I’d be looking for at least 16/1. The fact that it will be close to thirty years by 2015 since the Conservatives last won a majority that lasted a full parliament tells its own story. But then it was more than thirty years since Labour had done it going into 1997. At the least, a market to bet on would be nice.

David Herdson

This is, of course, PB’s regular overnight open thread where all things political are discussed.

Welcome to the cafe – have a good evening.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Does the boss of ICM have a point?

Alex Salmond announced on Wednesday that his “straightforward” question for the Scottish referendum was: “Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?

This has now been scrutinized by academic and polling experts who are saying that it is leading and suggest that it is designed to get a particular outcome.

According to the Telegraph the boss of ICM, Martin Boon, said the question was simple but added that his company would “refuse” to ask it as it stands.

“This is cheeky really – it suggests that ‘we all agree, don’t you?’ In short, if this were asked in the context of an opinion poll, I would expect to receive some condemnation for it being deemed as imbalanced, loaded and unfair”

It’s suggested Salmond’s wording had obviously been the subject of extensive SNP polling to register the most favourable possible result.

Also quoted is Prof John Curtice, who said: “It would have been fairer to ask ‘should Scotland become independent’ rather than ‘do you agree’. In everyday conversation people are inclined to say they agree than don’t agree.”

This one will run.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Was the latest debate Gingrich’s last stand?

These were the reactions of Nate Silver, the prominent US election and polling analyst, to the final TV debate in Florida ahead of next Tuesday’s primary.

Grades (strategy/execution): Romney (A/A); Santorum (A-/A); Paul (B-/C); Gingrich (D-/B)

— Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) January 27, 2012

Could envision an outcome in Florida like Romney 45, Gingrich 25, Santorum 20,Paul 10

— Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) January 27, 2012

There’s little doubt that the big loser was last weekend’s winner in South Carolina, Newt Gingrich. This was his last real opportunity to edge back into the Florida race and he flunked it. He appeared inadequate, mean-minded and somehow out of his depth. It’s hard now to envisage him staying the course.

It was left to the victor of Iowa, Rick Santorum, to take on the Romney band-wagon and he didn’t miss his opportunity. He landed a number of blows and he was the only one to seriously worry the ex-governor of Massachusetts.

Could he now get the polling bounce and take over the mantle as the “Anyone But Mitt” (ABM) choice? The latest polling has him in the 8-12% range so Nate’s prediction of 20% is quite a big jump.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Thursdays are generally more interesting than usual. We have Question Time on BBC1, the council by-elections as well as, tonight, the final TV debate between the GOP candidates in Florida. We also have the final YouGov daily poll of the week.

Share your thoughts here in the PB NightHawks Cafe.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

From an 8% Florida lead to an 8% deficit in just three days

The big news in the fight for next Tuesday’s GOP primary in Florida is that there’s been a huge turnaround in the polls.

The most startling movement has come with Insider Advantage which on Sunday evening, in the aftermath of Newt’s stunning victory in South Carolina, had the ex-house speaker at Newt 34% to Mitt’s 26%. Since then there’s been a debate and and a huge negative offensive by the Romney camp with massive amounts being spent.

One polling expert in Orlando Tweeted overnight that the local TV is “wall-to-wall Mitt ads”. So the Romney campaign is using its financial muscle to squash its leading opponent.

This seems to be hitting home and the latest polling with the fieldwork yesterday has Mitt up a dramatic 14 points to 40% with Newt now at 32%. What seems to be happening is that support for Rick Santorum and Ron Paul is being squeezed like crazy and the big beneficiary is Mitt.

What’s good about having two polls in such a short period from the same pollster is that we can do proper comparisons. These are the figures with changes from Sunday:

Romney 40% (+14)
Gingrich 32% (-2)
Paul 9% (-4)
Santorum 8% (-3)

Other polling has also put Mitt ahead and clearly the momentum is with him. The question is whether this can be sustained? Whether Newt’s still go it within him to turn opinion back in his favour?

There’s another TV debate tonight and I wonder whether, like on Monday, the audience will be told to keep quiet. Newt seems to do better when he gets a reaction as we saw in the final South Carolina debate only a week ago.

The betting both for the nomination and the Tuesday’s primary has moved very sharply in line with the polling.

As it is at the moment Newt’s campaign looks dead in the state. So far in this long campaign since last June he has recovered twice and will he do it a third time?

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

What do we think of this spoof? I think its fun and certainly gets over a lot of the emotional case on one side.

Quite a few betting markets are being established but given the time-scale there’s nothing that I can recommend. I like to bet on something and see an outcome in weeks not years.

Have a good night in the cafe.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Is he getting his mojo back?

After the drubbing he’s been getting in the media and appalling personal poll figures Ed Miliband finally came back with a decent PMQ performance.

He’s cut the jokes and is working on his speaking style. At the end of one or two of his questions he lowered his voice which was quite effective. He can sometimes sound as though he is screeching. He also kept his temper down.

He had good material to play with of course. The morning’s growth figures were always going to be a poor backcloth for the PM and so it proved.

Ed’s second round of questioning on the NHS reforms was also pretty effective and he appeared to have Cameron on the back foot.

Will this matter? The answer is yes given the murmurings that are said to be going on in the party. Labour back-benchers will have been cheered.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

The chances are a lot tighter than that

Ladbrokes put up a market overnight on there being a brokered convention to choose the GOP 2012 nominee for the White House. The opening price was a mouth-watering 20/1

It then soon moved to 16/1 and by the time I became aware of it the price was down to 10/1.

Even though it’s an eventuality that rarely happens it’s being talked about a lot at the moment following South Carolina and the prospect of a Newt Gingrich nomination. Mitt Romney, as we are seeing, is having problems with the broad Republican base while there are many in the party elite who are ultra-concerned about having Newt at the top of the ticket.

Initially they’d been broadly happy to support Mitt but now that his effort is faltering it’s suggested that they’ll try anything to block Newt

There’s a lot of talk of another candidate acceptable to the establishment being promoted but given the timings and the need to complete legal requirements to get on each state ballot it might be hard for such a person to secure enough delegates in time for the convention in August.

The terms of the Ladbrokes bet are simple – that the eventual nominee will be other than Romney/Gingrich/Santorum/Paul. I think the chances of that happening are better than the odds being offered – hence a good value bet.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

The row over Iowa moves up another notch

For those like me who are battling with Betfair over the Iowa caucus outome I’ve now dug up what could be helpful evidence.

Betfair is claiming that the statement on election night by Matt Strawn, the Chairman of the Iowa Republican party, was the official announcement and that their pay-out decision was based on that.

I have now dug out the Strawn statement to reporters which included this key qualification which I think makes it clear that this was not the official announcement. After setting out what the then current numbers were he went on to say:-

“..Under party rules each country has two weeks to send a certified form E with the results of each precinct in their county to Republican headquarters. So within two weeks the Republican party of Iowa will have the final certified results of the Iowa caucuses.”

That makes it very clear that the provisional numbers announced that night were not the official result.

Best of luck to all those who are fighting this.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Now Ipsos-MORI has him below Nick Clegg

The January Reuters/MORI poll is just out and there’s more bad news for the Labour in the leader ratings. The net figures are featured in the chart above.

On voting intention, however, CON has lost its lead. These are the figures with changes on December – CON 38% (-3): LAB 38% (-1): LD 12% (+1). That December poll was carried out in the immediate aftermath of the Brussels veto.

This means that we’ve now got the Jan 2012 numbers from the main pollsters which publish every month. ComRes and MORI have LAB and CON at 38% each, Populus has a one point LAB lead; while ICM comes in with a 5 point LAB deficit.

Of those polled by MORI 56% were dissatisfied with Ed Miliband’s leadership and only 30% satisfied. This compares with Cameron’s satisfaction rating of 46% against 47 percent dissatisfied.

Because MORI has been polling leader ratings for 38 years in almost exactly the same way its numbers are generally seen as the “gold standard”. Asking about “satisfaction” is seen by many academics as the best form of questioning.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Inevitably there’s been movement on the London mayoral betting following the YouGov and ComRes polls whih both had Ken narrowly ahead. But based on Betfair prices Boris is a 60% favourite with Ken at 40%. There’s clearly a long way to go.

The best bookmaker price you can get with Boris is 8/13 while Ken can be had at 13/8.

The election takes place in May.

Betfair still undecided on Iowa

The betting exchange has yet to follow major bookmakers such as William Hill, Ladbrokes and Bet365 and paid out on Rick Santorum bets in Iowa even though the only official announcement that there’s been has him as the winner.

Different Betfair customers seem to be getting different responses and I know appeals to the IBAS arbitration service have been submitted or are in the process of being.

Betfair has yet to give me a firm response either way.

This is a tough one for all bookmakers though it was made very clear that the originial numbers, with Romney ahead by 8, would have to be verified and certified.

Hopefully there will be news from the betting exchange today.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

A guest slot by Tim Trevan (TimT)

Pundits both sides of the Atlantic gave Romney the GOP nomination two weeks ago. PB’s own survey had close to 90% saying it was his, with most saying he would win both Iowa and New Hampshire in addition. At the time, I railed against such implied certainty, saying that Paul would win Iowa, Romney New Hampshire and Newt the nomination.

I did so not because I was sure that would be the case (clearly, I was wrong on Iowa!), but because the ‘coronation’ by conventional wisdom so early was so clearly wrong, when 70% of the party was still voting ‘not Romney’ and he had yet to prove himself in the South.

Romney must still be considered the frontrunner to win the nod, but with no real degree of certainty now. Latest polls have him trailing Newt in Florida by a statistically significant amount. But with so many absentee ballots already in, Newt has to win polling day by a big margin to offset the votes Romney already has in the bank.

As one PBer put it the other day (sorry for not being able to recall who), the GOP now has one candidate for each of its constituent parts. These are (with my estimate of the proportion of the party they comprise and the candidate closest to their political philosophy);

Religious Right: 20%-, Santorum
Libertarians: 10+%, Paul
Moderates and Establishment: 30%-, Romney
Tea Party: 40%, Gingrich.

This cycle, the energy (anger) is coming from the Tea Party and Libertarians, and the money from the Establishment.

None of the remaining four candidates has any incentive to drop out. Paul and Santorum have shoestring operations. Paul’s objective is not to win but to have his views heard. Santorum’s is the same, save that he can take over Gingrich’s spot if the latter self-immolates once again.

Thus, if Newt does not self-destruct, there are two logical scenarios – no candidate crosses the finishing line in the delegate count before the convention or Evangelicals switch from Santorum to Gingrich as the un-Romney closest to their political outlook most likely to beat Romney, in which case Gingrich takes it by a country mile. The latest Florida polls indicate that the latter scenario may already be panning out.

ICM has CON 5% ahead while Populus gives LAB a 1% lead

It’s been a huge day of polling on both sides of the Atlantic and I’m only now catching up with the first UK telephone polls of 2012.

ICM had with changes on December – CON 40%(+3): LAB 35%(-1): LD 16%(+1) . So a CON-LAB gap exactly the same as YouGov yesterday but with very different shares for the LDs.

Populus for the Times has with changes on last month – CON 37%(+2): LAB 38%(-1): LD 13%(+1)

Although the top line lead numbers are very different the direction of travel for each of the three main parties is the same. CON & the LDs up with LAB down.

Given that Populus uses the same broad methodology as ICM and, indeed, usually uses ICM calling centres for its field-work, you would expect the two to come out with broadly similar numbers. My guess is that the differences are largely methodological with the ICM approach to turnout being the key divider.

Unlike Populus ICM discounts by 50% the views of those in its surveys who did not vote at the 2010 general election. We’ve seen some evidence from other polling that LAB has more 2010 non-voters amongst its current supporters and their views are adjusted accordingly. Whether this is the right approach or not I do not know but ICM did get the AV referendum outcome exactly right.

Coming up later is the first phone poll using live interviewers on the Florida primary where all the betting action is at the moment. The two polls we’ve seen so far use the automated rob-call system where respondees keying their answers on their phone key-pads.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

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